Sun Belt Preview

Things are a bit sunnier in the Sun Belt this season. Eleven of the fifteen members from the 2007 All-Sun Belt team return this season, including the cream of that group: New Orleans PG Bo McCalebb (New Orleans), WKU SF Courtney Lee, Arkansas State G Adrian Banks, and South Alabama G Demetric Bennett. The Belt should, SHOULD, have its strongest season in several years. The conference RPI for the last five years has been #15-17-13-18-20. The league has taken a tumble the last two seasons mainly due to adding a couple of RPI anchors to the league and the utter demise of used-to-be-perennially-powerful UL-Lafayette. The anchors look a little less weighty this year, ULL should be improved, and a couple of teams should be downright good. The Belt might creep into the top 15 again this season.

EAST
1. WKU Hilltoppers. Fourth verse, same as the first. The Tops are the favorite just about every year, but they have yet to fully deliver in the Darrin Horn era. There are six seniors on the roster including pre-season All-American Courtney Lee and Horn will can go as deep as he wants with the bench. SO PF Jeremy Evans has huge potential. There is real size and athleticism in the newcomers. Anything less than the NCAA will be a major disappointment this season.
Why they will be better than this: If one or two of the bigs can actually defend and rebound, this will be the best WKU team since the days of Chris Marcus.
Why they will be worse than this: Horn's team have yet to figure it out defensively. This team will fall short unless they shore up the matador defense. Also, one of the big men will have to step up for this team to max out.

2. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. MT has the goods to challenge WKU in the East. They return four starters and coach Kermit Davis inked a top 50 recruiting class including two standout JUCO frontcourt players and 6'5" G Josh Sain, who won Tennessee's state tourney MVP and was a finalist for its Mr. Basketball. PG Kevin Kanaskie is one of the better guards in the league and F Desmond Yates had a great FR season (10.9 pp, 3.4 rpg). Big Theryn Hudson returns up front as well. Calvin O'Neil, Nigel Johnson, and newcomer Demetrius Green will give MT a deep and talented backcourt. This should be Davis' best team since the Tommy Gunn era.
Why they will be better than this: If Green and JUCO C Uriah Hethington are as good as their press clippings.
Why they will be worse than this: If a number of these star recruits do not pan out--as has happened in the past with MT.

3. South Alabama Jaguars. Coach John Pelphrey left for Arkansas, so USA went back to the future in hiring former head coach Ronnie Arrow. Arrow has been busy building TAMU-Corpus Christi into a D-I program, nay, an NCAA Tourney-calibre D-I program, over the last few seasons. Pelphrey did not leave the cupboard bare. USA has a super backcourt tandem in guards Daon Merritt and Demetric Bennett, who combined for 29 ppg last season. Bennett shot 43.5% from downtown last season and Merritt averaged 5.3 assists. They are also high on former Mr. Kentucky Basketball Dominic Tilford who is eligible this season. Like a lot of Belt compadres, the guesswork is up front. The Jags have high hopes for former Cincinnati Bearcat Ronald Douglas in the post, and they do have F Brandon Davis returning.
Why they will be better than this: If Ronald Douglas is for real.
Why they will be worse than this: Several potential pratfalls including a new/old coach and reliance on newcomers.

4. Florida Atlantic Owls. They lost a super guard in DeAndre Rice, but return the Belt's best frontcourt player in Carlos Monroe (18.4 ppp, 9.4 rpg). The Owls have other options on the perimeter, too. They also add transfer Sammy Hernandez, who folks might remember from George Mason's Final Four team in 2006. FAU completed a $10 million renovation of their facilities in the offseason. The Owls made a solid debut in the Belt last season, and they seem to be headed in the right direction. This is my dark horse in the East.
Why they will be better than this: The Owls play ANY defense whatsoever (an abysmal #308 in AdjDefEff last season).
Why they will be worse than this: The loss of Rice hurts more than anticipated.

5. Florida International Panthers. FIU has not been good for awhile (see: Arroyo, Carlos: early career), but here is cause for optimism this year. The Panthers have added some serious size to their roster in the form of 7'0" Pepperdine transfer Russell Hicks and 6'11" JC transfer Badara Ndiaye. Neither put up huge numbers at their former schools, but FIU hopes they do enough to allow Alex Galindo (13.9 ppg) to do his thing more freely on the perimeter. FIU also adds Texas A&M transfer G Kenneth "Red" White who carries the reputation of a big-time scorer. Colorful coach Sergio Rouco is high on this team. FIU hosts Miami-FL, George Mason, and South Florida this year as part of a 17-game home schedule. FIU could make a little noise against those names in the non-conference.
Why they will be better than this: Rouco is right in his assessment of this team's talent.
Why they will be worse than this: If they are typical FIU: all sizzle, no steak.

6. Troy Trojans. The Trojans lost four major players from a 13-17 team, all of them double-digit scorers and the leaugue defensive POY.. In a league full of uncertain frontcourts, Troy has the youngest and least experienced. In standard Troy fashion, they have some gunners on the outside including seniors Odarian Bassett (15.1 ppg) and Justin Jonus (9 ppg). There are a truckload of other seemingly capable young guards and wings. This is coach Don Maestri's 25th year at Troy, and he has not won 424 games without being resourceful. Troy will likely wind up being better than they look on paper and will clip some wings of the league's peacocks when they are on from outside.
Why they will be better than this: The young size can play and some leadership emerges.
Why they will be worse than this: The losses hurt as much as it looks like they will.

WEST
1. UL-Monroe. They won the West last season and the 'Hawks return all five starters. ULM was small, but scrappy, and they add two promising newcomers with size this season. Four players that averaged double-figure points and another that chipped in 9.7 ppg return. They are also adding 6'7" F Mitchell Hampton who had offers on the table from Ole Miss and Auburn. WKU may be the overall favorite, but ULM certainly has the NCAA Tourney on its mind this season...and with good reason.
Why they will be better than this: If the perimeter players keep pace with last season and the frontcourt is indeed upgraded.
Why they will be worse than this: Seemed to overachieve last year (read: LUCKY. By Ken Pomeroy's calculations: 10th luckiest in the nation), and karma may come back on them.

2. New Orleans Privateers. One is hard-pressed to find any trio of seniors that have endured what Bo McCalebb, Ben Elias, and James Parlow have endured. McCalebb and Parlow not only went to UNO during Hurricane Katrina, but both are actually from the city of New Orleans. Also, McCalebb tore his ACL two seasons ago just for good measure. It is hard not to root for reigning POY McCalebb. He has been the best penetrator in the league for years, is as tough as nails, and will likely become the Belt's all-time leading scorer if he avoids injury this season. Three other starters return to flank McCalebb, and UNO has hired hometown guy Joe Pasternack as head coach. This should be UNO's best team in awhile.
Why they will be better than this: If some frontcourt scoring emerges.
Why they will be worse than this: If Privateer bad luck continues. Oh, and maybe that pesky issue of no returning big who averaged more than 2.8 ppg.

3. Arkansas State. If Isaac Wells had returned instead of declaring for the NBA draft (he's in Poland now), the Indians would be the pick in the West. They still have a shot as it stands. Adrian Banks is a POY candidate (21.1 ppg) and will be a headache for any team to contain. Combo G Ryan Wedel had a great FR campaign last year and give ASU another solid perimeter player. There are MAJOR questions up front, however. With Wells and starting center Theo Little gone, they will need JC transfer Yima Chia-Kur to live up to his considerable hype (recruited by Colorado, Providence, and Nebraska).
Why they will be better than this: Chia-Kur is for real and frontcourt steps up.
Why they will be worse than this: Frontcourt does not deliver and they are relegated to being a perimeter-only team.

4. North Texas Mean Green. Gone are Greenies Kendrick Davis, Calvin Watson, Rich Young, and Michael Sturns from NT's NCAA Tournament team that gave Memphis a serious run in the NCAA first round. PG Ben Bell does return and the Green adds USF transfer Collin Dennis (a starter for the Bulls), and two guys that filled it up in high school in Tristan Thompson and Josh White. In a rarity for Belt clubs, the strength is up front. Seniors Keith Wooden (9.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Quincy Williams (10.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg) will anchor what will likely be the best frontcourt in the league.
Why they will be better than this: Young perimeter players can step right in and present a scoring/shooting threat.
Why they will be worse than this: The losses are too great to overcome.

5. UALR Trojans. The Trojans are always physical--on that you can rely. Further, coach Steve Shields is not hiding his optimism. He does not have a lot of size up front, but he has lots of 6'6" and 6'7" guys. UALR welcomes two Ole Miss transfers in Brandon Patterson and big Mike Smith (6'7", 277 lbs). Add these two to the returning firepower of Lekheythan Malone and company, and there is potential for UALR to suprise some folks. This is my dark horse pick in the West.
Why they will be better than this: The infusion of the Ole Miss tandem and JC F Shane Edwards will shore up the frontcourt and open the perimeter up for Malone, et al.
Why they will be worse than this: Frontcourt does not deliver and it's a repeat of last season.

6. UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns. Like many teams in the Belt, the Cajuns have real reason for optimism this year. They return two excellent players in G David Dees and SF Elijah Millsap (Belt FR of the Year). Incoming 6'6" FR G Chris Gradnigo has Coach Robert Lee going gaga. He made official visits to Arkansas and Notre Dame before committing. They also have something else in common with a lot of Belt teams: lack of a proven inside presence. They have good perimeter talent, but will need one or more of the bigs to step up. No obvious answers are on the roster.
Why they will be better than this: If there is a hidden gem among the bigs.
Why they will be worse than this: If Gradnigo does not deliver and the bigs are as sparse as they seem.

7. Denver Pioneers. They were 4-24 last season and #335 of 336 in the RPI (thank you, Northern Colorado!). They lost three starters and will be in their first year implementing new head coach Joe Scott's Princeton-style offense. Expectations are, uh, low.
Why they will be better than this: The Princeton offense clicks right away.
Why they will be worse than this: If God is unmerciful.

A Season-Long Experiment

My rooting interest lies with the WKU Hilltoppers. I have spent the last two months lamenting the schedule. It is not a terrible schedule in terms of quality, mind you, it's the timing of the games that has me worried. See, much of the Sun Belt is also in the Bible Belt, and that means that Wednesday night games conflict with church for a healthy portion of our community (we have four Wednesday night tips this season). That means fewer big home crowds for the Tops. Further, the Toppers play a whopping nine games away from home on Saturday nights. My question is, do these things matter?

I am not a mathematician or a statistician, so I may not be able to prove causation, but we can certainly see if there is a correlation between crowd attendance and losing on the road. I am interested to examine several things:

1. Does playing on the road on Saturday (presumably facing larger crowds than weeknight games) increase a team's chance of losing a road game?
2. Ken Pomeroy has demonstrated that home court advantage in a broad sense is often overblown. But, I'm not sure his data shows us that spiked attendance at "big games" does not matter. Of course, Duke and Kentucky and several other teams are almost always going to have a big crowd on hand. We already know it's tough to win there on any night. I am more interested in...
3. Do teams perform better statistically when the crowd is bigger? Do they "pull the upset" with a bigger crowd on hand? For example, does San Francisco "overperform" when Gonzaga comes to town and a big crowd is on hand?

It should be interesting to track this over the course of the season. Of course, the numbers will not mean much, statistically speaking, until late in the season when the RPI and Sagarin can help provide some baselines.

Familiar Hum

An elderly man shuffles to the far wall in an dark, old, musty gymnasium. His left leg drags a bit as he walks. He clears his throat, and it echoes off the concrete walls. The air smells of damp leather and hardwood with a tinge of salt and mineral spirits. He raises a crackled, brown hand to the light switch panel. He flips the first switch. High-above bulbs flicker, and a low hum commences. The purplish twilight of the bulbs casts a pale, lavender, dim moonglow on the empty hardwood hall. The elderly man licks his lips, while he slowly and deliberately flips the second, third, and fourth switches, each one awakening a sound akin to a small hive of bees.

Over the next five minutes, the gymnasium lights gradually brighten like a glorious sunrise, eventually making the gym an empty, radiant sanctuary awaiting its priests, prophets, and congregants. The old man smiles a Chesire-cat smile in the warmth of the new luminosity. Soon, the first leather sphere will be cradled in knowing hands like a newborn babe. It will bounce on the waxy floor and shatter the vacuous silence, and then be launched toward a hoop that has held its waiting mouth open for a seemingly everlasting off-season.

The silence has been broken. It is time for basketball.

Coming soon (before November 3):
Early season event roundup
Sun Belt Preview
Preseason Bracket

Lights Out

Congratulations to the Florida Gators (again). They were the best team (again), with the best players (again), and they retained their coach (again).

The buzzing glow of the gym lights have dimmed and hang silently yet again until mid-October. A post-NBA draft bracket will appear sometime this summer, and other updates will occur as needed. But, for the most part, my work here is done for the 2006-07 season.

Read more of my stuff on my personal blog that focuses mostly on running.

Three Games to Go

At this point, it is time to enjoy our dessert. We have made it through another wonderful season of hoops, and while I probably care less about this weekend than most of my readers, it is still the culmination of another enjoyable season.

Enjoy the games. A tearful farewell to the season is on tap for next week.

NCAA Pace: Part II

OK, I made a slight miscue yesterday. The pace numbers were for the first round only.

What I have done today is averaged the pace for all NCAA tourney teams during their regular season games. That number is 66.6 (Mark of the Beast!!! Watch out, Ken Pomeroy!), which is just a smidgen under the 66.7 average for all teams in the regular season. So, in FIRST ROUND games, teams slowed down to average pace of 66.3, which is 0.3 possessions slower than this group of NCAA tourney teams averaged during the season. The games did slow down a bit.

In Round Two, the surviving 32 teams had a average pace of 66.0 in their games this season. So, more slower paced teams survived Round One. In Round Two games, the average pace was 63.0--a full three possessions slower than what these teams averaged in the regular season. Of course, with more "slow-minded" teams playing games against one another, this is not terribly surprising.

So, who is left? Sixteen teams that averaged 66.1 possessions this season, that's who. So, if the trend from Round Two holds up, games will be played at a pace of about 63.

Of course, these numbers are not perfect, but they do show that more teams surviving to this point play a slower brand of basketball. They also show that there is some truth to the "games slow down in the tournament" mantra. North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas, and Tennessee are in the minority in this group. They are the only four teams left that are even in the Top 100 in quickest pace of play.

Pace of Play: First Two Rounds

Time to put the old cliche that "games slow down in the NCAA tournament" to the test.

Regular season avg pace of play for all NCAA teams: 66.7
Avg pace of play through NCAA tourney first round: 66.3

So, the games actually slowed down a hair in the first round. HOWEVER...

1. Only five of the Sweet 16 played a pace faster than 66.7 during the season.
2. Not only were 11 of the remaining 16 teams slower than average, but 5 of the 16 were in the slowest 20% of all teams (UCLA, Pitt, SIU, Georgetown, Butler).

Is this small slowdown a result of the tourney setup or merely a result of the types of teams that are in the tourney? Do teams that play slow tend to be better teams or at least advance farther in the NCAA tournament? If we averaged the pace of play of tourney teams, would 66.3 actually be an INCREASE in pace of play for this cohort?

I am sure there are answers out there. Please share. Or maybe I'll find time to run some numbers tomorrow.

Ram-ifications

There are so many stories about VCU's win over Duke that I will not insult you with links. Otherwise, the bracket was pretty chalky yesterday.

Today's schedule might offer more drama. I am traveling today, so this may be it until late tonight or tomorrow morning.

So It Begins...

My bracket picks are ready to go. First round "upset" winners include Davidson, Winthrop, VCU, Arkansas, and Creighton. Final Four: Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, and Kansas. Florida over Georgetown to win it. I know...pretty boring.

Here is a schedule of today's games. Soak in the wholesome goodness. Sadly, it will prevent you from enjoying the NBA anymore, but it will be good while it lasts. I am only half-kidding.

More later, time permitting.
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1.50 pm: Teams cannot be judged solely on first round performance, but did Stanford look like a tournament team? Louisville simply demolished the Tree. In fact, Stanford moved liked trees...with DEEP roots.

Maryland spoiled by biggest lower seed pick by holding off Davidson who simply ran out of gas late in the game.

Adventures in Mis-Seeding

To start, let me say that I can certainly be wrong about any given team's seeding. So can any bracketologist. That said, the lists below show the differences in seeding for the 18 teams that the committee placed more than two seed lines away from what I had projected. Also included are the two teams that the committee put IN that I left out. What I am looking for here are patterns:

Higher
Vanderbilt +2. SEC commish on the committee.
Virginia +2. Virginia AD on the committee.
Purdue +2. Ohio State AD on the committee.
Indiana +3. Ohio State AD on the committee.
Gonzaga +3. No rep on the committee.
Long Beach +2. UC-Riverside AD on the committee.
Nevada +2. No rep on the committee.
Albany +2. No rep on the committee.
Butler +3. Horizon AD on the committee.
Arkansas (got IN). SEC commish on the committee.
Stanford (got IN). UCLA AD on the committee.

Lower
UNLV -2. Utah AD was on the committee (Mountain West).
BYU -2. See above.
Creighton -3. No Valley rep.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -2. No Southland rep.
Louisville -2. No Big East rep.
Marquette -2. No Big East rep.
Villanova -2. No Big East rep.
Syracuse (left OUT). No Big East rep.
Drexel (Left OUT). George Mason AD on the committee.

Only two of the Big Six conferences did not have representation: the Big XII and the Big East. The Big XII seemed pretty cut and dried: Kansas 1/2 seed, Texas A&M 2/3, Texas 3/4, Texas Tech as a bubble team that expected to be IN, and Kansas State and maybe Oklahoma State as Bubbly Boys that expected to be OUT. The Big East was trickier and, in my opinion, all of the teams above were underseeded or left out. Both Indiana and Purdue seem overseeded to me.

In fact, of the teams seeded lower by the committee than projected, only 3/9 had committee representation. Of the teams seeded higher by the committee than projected, 8/11 did have committee representation. As I said yesterday, this is not to say that the committee is "dirty." But, I do think it is inaccurate to say that "friends on the committee" does not matter. It only makes sense that if Syracuse and Arkansas are vying for one of the final slots, it is going to help to have the SEC commish on the committee. He or she will have special knowledge about the Hogs that no one in the room can provide regarding the Orange. There is no need for drastic change or alarm, but having representation on the committee DOES matter.

Tomorrow morning, I will post my bracket picks which are probably the least helpful or meaningful part of what I try to do here. But, it is part of the fun, is it not? And, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament is the best weekend in sports in this writer's humble opinion.

SCKySSiP, Lockbox, and Lousville

There are several items for discussion today.

SCKySSiP III
Our third edition of a mock selection selection once again matched most bracketologists projections. This shows that most bracket heads out there have a pretty good grasp on what the committee is trying to do. The actual 10-member committee does NOT sit in a room debating teams over brandy and cigars and handing out seeds as a result of their conversation. Far from it. The process begins with each member submitting two lists: 1) a list of all teams that should be IN, and 2) a list of all other teams for consideration. Teams appearing on at least 8/10 committee members' List #1 goes into the tournament. All other teams, along with all teams on List 2, go onto an At-Large Nomination board.

From this point, members nominate 8 teams on the ALN board. The top 4 vote-getters are held over for a future vote. Then, 8 more teams are nominated and those top 4 join the four that were held over. This 8-team list is then ranked 1-8 by all members. The top four vote-getters go into the tournament. The four teams that did not get in are held over for the next vote. Then, eight more teams are nominated. This process is repeated until all 34 at-large spots are filled. When that occurs, teams are seeded using the same process. Of course debate about X team does occur, but any given team's fate is decided by a 10-member vote.

And this is exactly what the SCKySSiP did. We replicated the selection process. Have another look at our results, only we had to rely much more on paper copies, a kitchen table, and Papa John's pizza in place of a fancy hotel, PC's for everyone, and whatever the real committee ate (some of Josh Heytvelt's mushrooms, I'd guess, based on some of the seeds).

Lockbox Accuracy
Can readers count on the TBB's Lockbox? The Lockbox had 25 teams LOCKED. They all got in. I also had Michigan State as a near lock and they also got in (26/26 so far). So, all teams guaranteed by the Lockbox made the field.

Syracuse was listed as "projected IN, but not a sure bet." Turns out, they were not a sure bet at all, I guess. This was the only real miss by the Lockbox. Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Illinois, Purdue, Xavier, Old Dominion, and Drexel were Bubble IN, and all but one made the cut (Drexel).

So, if the Lockbox says a team is a LOCK, they are a LOCK. Picking Bubble Boys is difficult, and it seems most experts missed on Syracuse and a lot missed on Drexel as well. It was a pretty good year for the Lockbox.

Louisville
A lot of talking heads (who are obviously not from Kentucky) are under the delusion that 6-seed Louisville will have a monster home court advantage when they play in Lexington (just 70 miles east of the Ville) this weekend. There are a couple of factors that make this unlikely. First, Ohio State is also there. Buckeye fans will suck up tickets in a hurry. Secondly, Louisville is the University of Kentucky's most hated rival. Most locals who have bought tickets to the tourney will be Wildcat fans. This is akin to Michigan playing a bowl game in Columbus, Ohio. Ask Duke if they enjoyed their trip to Lexington a few year's back (they lost to Indiana there in the tourney). Louisville will have it's share of fans to be sure, but there are going to be LOTS of UK fans rooting loud against Pitino's team. This should be an interesting scene.

Tomorrow: Adventures in Mis-Seeding.

Better Than Last Year

All I truly wanted from this committee was a better job than last year's debacle, and I think that this Gary Walters-led group accomplished that task. There were no wild surprises as to who got in, but leaving out Syracuse was a puzzler and I really thought Drexel had done enough even though their exclusion was not that surprising. Still, let me say up front that this committee did an adequate job this year--not as good as the 2005 group, but better than last season. Furthermore, I have been doing bracketology for 8 seasons and this was the toughest year that I can remember.

The committee nailed the one seeds, even though I did not. I thought that Wisconsin making the Big Ten final and the late start time against Ohio State would help them secure a one. The committee opted for Kansas and, even though Wisconsin's profile is better, Kansas won their tournament and the Badgers did not. No huge criticism from me regarding the one seeds.

There are always a few seeding issues. I have no idea how anyone can look at Butler's overall profile and finish to the season and give them a 5 seed. I though they were a 7, tops. Gonzaga, without Heytvelt, looks much closer to a 12/13 than a 10. Indiana somehow secured a 7 without a single meaningful win away from home. UCLA has to be comfy looking at the IU/Gonzaga winner as their 2nd round game. On the underrated side, UNLV, Creighton and BYU all look vastly underseeded to me. How anyone has Indiana three seed lines higher than Creighton is beyond me.

Compare a wide array of projections at the Bracket Project. TBB did better than some and not as well as others. This was not my best year, but not my worst either. I predicted 63/65 teams correctly (having Drexel and Syracuse IN with Arkansas and Stanford OUT), with 25 exactly seeded and 47 within one seed line. Fifty-nine of sixty-three correct teams were within two seed lines. Those numbers compare pretty favorably with most projections listed at the Bracket Project.

The SCKySSiP had similar results. A full breakdown of our work comes tomorrow. I can say that the SCKySSiP's work matched 63/65 as well (having Drexel and Syracuse IN with Stanford and Purdue OUT) with 29 seeded the same and 47 within one seed line. Fifty-eight were within two seed lines.

More on the SCKySSiP, the accuracy of the Lockbox, and how the selection committee makeup affects seeding tomorrow.

Also, here is a link to nice, clean actual bracket. Enjoy!

Final Projection

Here is TBB's final projection. This is my best guess at what the committee will do. It's VERY tough at the bottom. To me, the last slot was betwee Purdue and Missouri State. After last season, I think Purdue gets the edge because the Big 10 has representation on the committee and the Valley does not. That is not to say the committee is "dirty," but they merely have someone to tell them all the ins and outs of Purdue. The Bears do not have anyone like that on the committee.

There are several slots that are tenuous: Drexel, ODU, Purdue and/or Illinois could easily be bumped by Florida State, Stanford, Missouri State, Arkansas, Air Force, or possibly even West Virginia or Kansas State, though I think those last two are doubtful.

The SCKySSiP bracket is up for viewing as well. I did not have a lot of time to scour this one for matchup problems, so please forgive me if there is a violation or two. This was a replication of the selection process using the NCAA selection criteria--NOT A GUESS at what the committee will do. That is what my projection is.

We'll know all in 15 mins!

Merry Selection Sunday!

The OSS is updated through last night's games.

As of this morning, here is how the Lockbox stands. I have Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Drexel, Xavier, Illinois and Missouri State IN, while Purdue, Florida State, Arkansas and Stanford just missed. I think those teams are really close. I may change my mind as I ponder this group again later today. Arkansas and NC State are playing for automatic bids and could knock someone off the bracket today.

The SCKySSiP completed its work at about 11 pm last night. I will post our results and my final personal projection later this afternoon before the Selection Show.

Happy Holiday. More coming later.

Bracket, Lockbox, OSS Updates

Lots of updates.

The One Stop Shop is updated through last night's games.

The Lockbox is up as well. I downgraded Texas Tech to Bubble IN due to their ugly loss yesterday and the fact that the available AL slots shrank by two due to Nevada and Xavier's losses yesterday. I also downgraded Syracuse from "near lock" to "projected in" simply because there are fewer spaces available.

I have both Nevada and Xavier still IN today's bracket. That cost Florida State and Stanford their slots from yesterday. Likely, it cost Purdue and Kansas State being in today. Those teams are charging hard as is Arkansas from the SEC. Mississippi State and Mississippi are making things interesting as well.

So, of the Bubble Boys, I took Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Old Dominion, Illinois, Drexel, and Missouri State in that order. Next in line were Purdue, Kansas State, Stanford, Air Force, Arkansas, and Florida State. The Mississippi schools can get into the mix with wins today.

The SCKySSiP will be working hard all day today. The fruits of our labor will be posted early tomorrow afternoon along with the final Lockbox and my personal bracket projection.

I'll do a late OSS update tonight if it's not ridiculously late when our mock committee finishes its work.

Enjoy the day!

Bubble Boys Lament

Two Bubble Boys likely lost their spots tonight. Both Nevada and Xavier went down. Nevada is certainly IN. Xavier is a little more dicey, but is likely to going to make it. Tough news for Florida State, Drexel, Old Dominion, West Virginia and the rest.

I have a lot of irons in the fire tomorrow, but I will certainly post an updated Lockbox at some point and hopefully a tweaked bracket.

The SCKySSiP is in full effect, so we will be working nonstop from 2 pm until the wee hours tomorrow night. Full report on that project coming on Monday.

The OSS is updated through tonight's games completed at 11.11 pm.

Bracket Update 3/09

Thanks to Zach McCrite and The Big EZ Show on 1570 (Louisville) and 1600 AM (Frankfort/Lexington) at 9.45 CT (10.45 ET) for having me on today. It was fun.

After an eventful day yesterday, a couple of teams changed their status in the Lockbox. Texas Tech moved from "Bubble IN" to "Projected IN" with another win. Their season profile coupled with this strong finish has them in pretty good position.

Georgia Tech fell back onto the Bubble with a loss to Wake. The Jackets have an awful lot of quality wins, but they are 8-9 in ACC games and 1-8 on the road with an RPI of 49. That is not a profile to rest easy upon.

Amazingly, Air Force has played their way onto the Bubble. In fact, I left them OUT of today's bracket in favor of Florida State. They never reached LOCK status, and a four game losing streak including a first round conference tourney loss to Wyoming qualifies as an apocalyptic meltdown. They have to be considered a Bubble team.

Stanford and Florida State's (who is going down hard to UNC as I type) bids are in the guillotine ready to be lopped off by some still-living Bubble Boy (Arkansas, Kansas State, Purdue) that can make a run.

That moves the Bubble to seven slots, and several teams have a chance to take the bull by the horns today.

The OSS is updated through last night's games.

ATTENTION: The biggest game of the day is the Patriot League final: Bucknell at Holy Cross. Loser goes NITting and the winner will send some 4-seed into a cold sweat on Selection Sunday when they see either of these teams pop up next to their name.

New Bracket, Lockbox, OSS

Congrats to Central Connecticut (Northeast) and Weber State (Big Sky), and welcome to the bracket.

Today's bracket has the same teams as yesterday, but with a few adjusted seeds. The Lockbox has been updated as well.

The OSS is up to date through games completed at 10.54 pm CT.

LOTS of action today.

Today's GOI
--ACC first round. Clemson/Florida State loser is OUT for good. Georgia Tech needs to beat Wake Forest to rest easy.
--A-10 quarterfinals. Xavier and especially UMass need good runs to keep AL hopes alive.
--Big 12 first round. Oklahoma State may be dead already. Texas Tech needs to avoid a loss to Colorado. Missouri needs a run to the finals for any hope.
--Big East quarterfinals. A win over Louisville would help West Virginia a great deal.
--Big Ten first round. Michigan and Illinois are in must win mode today.
--Big West second round.
--CUSA quarterfinals.
--MAC quarterfinals.
--Mountain West quarterfinals. UNLV and BYU are IN. Air Force can LOCK it up with a win today.
--Pac-10 quarterfinals. Stanford may need to beat USC to get IN. Washington needs to continue their late charge to have any hope. Everyone else is in pretty good shape, although Southern Cal might sweat a little if they lose today.
--SEC first round. Alabama must beat Kentucky. Georgia and Arkansas need deep runs.
--SWAC semifinals.
--Southland quarterfinals.
--WAC quarterfinals. New Mexico State and Utah State need to get to the finals for any hope.

More Tix and Big Day Ahead

Congrats to North Texas (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Mid-Con), and Wright State (Horizon)! All Bubble Boys moaned in unison when Wright State took down Butler. That's one less slot that is available for them.

The OSS is updated through today's games as of 11.15 pm (CT).

The bracket and Lockbox have been updated as well.

BIG, BIG day today in conference tourney world.

Today's GOI
Tickets, please:
--at (1) Weber State (Big Sky) 88, (2) Northern Arizona 80. Another regular season champ wins their tourney.
--at (1) Central Conn St 74 , (2) Sacred Heart 70 (Northeast). And yet ANOTHER.
Other tourney action:
--Atlantic 10 first round.
--Big East first round. Villanova/DePaul is huge. Nova is likely IN, but this is a must win for DePaul. The loser of Providence/West Virginia is toast as well. Marquette needs to take care of St. John's for any hopes of a decent seed.
--Big West first round.
--CUSA first round.
--MAC first round.
--MEAC 6/11 first round game, and two quarterfinal games.
--Pac-10 first round. Washington needs a deep, deep run to have any hope.
--SWAC quarterfinals (two of four).

SCKySSiP III

The South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (preposterously long title used for dramatic effect) is in it's third year this year. I have posted on this before, but here is the skinny.

Eight folks here in Kentucky are replicating the selection process as closely as possible. While we are not sequestered in a hotel together this week, we are following the NCAA selection criteria with votes by email all week. Then, on Saturday, six of our eight members will meet in person from 2 pm to midnight-ish to make final selections, seed, and place teams into the bracket.

So, while my personal bracket projection will still be on this site, also watch for SCKySSiP updates. My projections are a best guess at what the committee will do. The SCKySSiP is a replication of the actual process. There is a big difference.

I have updated the Lockbox to reflect conference tourney winners.

Tonight's GOI (see the OSS for times)
Bids on the line!
--(2) Butler at (1) Wright State (Horizon). Will the Horizon get one bid or two?
--(2) Oakland at (1) Oral Roberts (Mid-Con). Certainly the two best teams this league has had to offer all season long.
--(5) North Texas vs (2) Arkansas State (Sun Belt). This game is as unpredictable as this topsy-turvy league has been all season long.
Other tourney games
--Big Sky semifinals.
--Mid-Eastern first round.
--Mountain West 8/9 game.
--WAC 8/9 game.

Late Night OSS Update

The OSS is updated through tonight's games. Congrats to VCU (Colonial), Niagara (MAAC), and Gonzaga (West Coast) for punching their tix.

More on the SCKySSiP tomorrow. Have no clue what that is? It's OK. It's simply my favorite sports animal of the whole year.

Bracket/Lockbox/OSS Updates

I hope you tuned in at 11.05 CST (12.05 EST) to hear me gab with Zach McCrite about the bracket. It was on 1570 (Louisville) and 1600 AM (Frankfort/Lexington). Thanks to Big EZ for having me on.

The OSS now has all 31 conference tourney brackets up to date. I think there may still be some clean up to do on game times, so I'll work on that later.

The Lockbox has been updated. I will post a bracket update later today at some point.

Today's bracket is ready to go as well. I think the Bubble is currently at six slots. Stanford has to be considered a Bubble Boy now, because they are not favored in their first tourney game, and another loss would make the Cardinal 4-6 in their last ten with an RPI in the 50s or maybe even 60s. That is a sweaty situation. A win over Southern Cal probably puts them IN.

Of the six Bubble slots, I think Texas Tech is in the best shape. If they beat lowly Colorado in the 5/12 game of the Big XII tourney, they are probably OK...but they might want to win two just in case. The other five Bubble Boys IN were Stanford, Old Dominion, Illinois, Missouri State, and Drexel. The last four are especially dicey. Illinois has to beat Penn State in the 6/11 Big 10 tourney game and may need to beat Indiana. Old Dominion, Missouri State, and Drexel have a lot of sleepless nights ahead of them this week. This group will certainly be pulling for teams like Butler and VCU to take care of business this week.

The teams that just missed were Purdue, West Virginia, DePaul, Clemson, Florida State, Kansas State, and Alabama. More fringe-y teams included UMass, Appalachian State, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Mississippi. They are few others that are not dead, but will need massive runs in their conference tourneys.

Tonight's GOI (see The OSS for times)
Three bids on the line tonight!
--(6) George Mason at (1) VCU (Colonial). Home game for Rams will make it tough for an NCAA return by the Partiots.
--(4) Siena vs (2) Niagara (Metro-Atlantic). Marist was getting most of the pub, but these two have been on FIRE in their last ten games (Siena 9-1, Niagara 10-0).
--(2) Santa Clara vs (1) Gonzaga (West Coast). Zags probably do not have enough juice for an AL bid, so they find themselves in a must-win game. These are the two best teams in WCC, so this is a fitting end.
Other tourney action:
Mid-Continent Semifinals
--UMKC vs Oakland
--IUPUI at Oral Roberts
Sun Belt Semifinals
--Western Kentucky vs Arkansas State
--Middle Tennessee vs North Texas

Creighton Punches Ticket

Congrats to the Jays from the MVC. They will not have to sweat on SelSun.

The One Stop Shop is updated through games completed today at 10 pm.

Full update tomorrow with complete tourney brackets for all conferences, a bracket update, and a Lockbox update. It's getting crowded in there.

One Stop Update

The OSS is updated through tonight's games as of 11.30 pm.

Congrats to Penn (Ivy), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Winthrop (Big South), and Davidson (Southern). Their bids are in the mail due to conference tourney championships (or in Penn's case, the regular season Ivy crown).

More coming tomorrow.

One Stop/Bracket Updates

One Stop Shop is updated through last night's games.

Also, today's bracket contains the same 65 teams as Wednesday's, but the seeds have shifted a bit.

I'll do my best to update the OSS a few times this weekend as games are completed, but I will be traveling, so I could get behind a bit.

Enjoy a weekend of very important hoops.

Last Night's GOI
--at Georgia Tech 84, North Carolina 77. This one goes a long way for GT. A win over BC on Sunday would likely do the trick. Heels' 1-seed hopes are fading a bit.
--at Utah State 79, Nevada 77. Now, Aggies need a deep run in the WAC Tourney to make it interesting.
--at Virginia 69, Virginia Tech 56. Cavs can lock up the ACC regular season title with a win at Wake this weekend.
--at Washington 85, Southern Cal 70. USC missed their chance to LOCK it up.
--UCLA 53, at Washington State 45. Ladies and gents, your 2007 Pac-10 regular season champs.
See the OSS for these tourney game results:
--Atlantic Sun quarterfinals.
--Big South semifinals.
--Missouri Valley first round.
--Northeast quarterfinals.
--Southern quarterfinals.

Weekend Forecast
Tonight's Tourney Action (see the OSS)
--America East first round.
--Atlantic Sun semifinals.
--Colonial quarterfinals.
--Horizon second round.
--Metro-Atlantic first round.
--Missouri Valley quarterfinals. Creighton and Missouri State both need to cash in their first round games to ensure "good Bubble" status.
--Ohio Valley semifinals.
--Southern semifinals.
--West Coast first round.
Saturday
--Oklahoma State at Baylor. Must win for Cowboys.
--Tennessee at Georgia. Dawgs are all but dead; Vols need a road win to help seeding.
--Illinois at Iowa. Illini cannot afford to gamble with a loss.
--Texas Tech at Iowa State. Tech is in the same boat as Illinois--hanging onto the bottom of the bracket.
--Oklahoma at Kansas State. K-State is nearing must win territory if they are not there already.
--Pittsburgh at Marquette. Gold/Warriors/Eagles seed is in freefall.
--Ohio State at Michigan. Big chance for the Wolverines to make one final push.
--Auburn at Mississippi. It seems everyone is just trying to get to .500 in the SEC West.
--New Mexico State at Nevada. Aggies are a real long shot, but a win here would keep the door ajar.
--Arizona at Stanford. Cardinal could use a big win to boost them to a sweat-free SelSun.
--Missouri at Texas A&M. Tigers would have to win this one and make a Big XII Tourney run.
--Fresno State at Utah State. Aggies need to win a few in a row to get a serious look.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Both in decent shape, but the winner of this one likely will not sweat on SelSun.
--Michigan State at Wisconsin. Wisconsin can strengthen its grip on a 1-seed; Sparty can likely stay above the 8/9 game with a win here.
Tournament Action
--America East quarterfinals.
--Big Sky first round.
--Big South Championship. VMI at Winthrop.
--Colonial quarterfinals.
--Horizon semifinals.
--Metro Atlantic quarterfinals.
--Mid-Continent first round.
--West Coast second round.
Sunday
--Kentucky at Florida. Neither playing up to par.
--Boston College at Georgia Tech. This would LOCK it up for GT.
--Alabama at Mississippi State. Probably a must-win for 'Bama.
--Duke at North Carolina. UNC needs it for any 1-seed hopes.
--Clemson at Virginia Tech. Now or never for Tigers.
Tournament Action
--Mid-Continent first round.
--Northeast semifinals.
--Patriot semifinals.
--Sun Belt quarterfinals.
--West Coast semifinals.

Playing Favorites

The chalk is holding up well early on this postseason. So far, teams with higher seed lines in conference tournaments are 18-5. Plus, three of those upsets were in two 4/5 games and an 8/9 game. I am sure there will be some big shakeups at some point, but it is not happening just yet.

Also, Kentucky, Indiana, and Maryland have done enough. I LOCKED them into the Lockbox.

See all the tourney action in the One Stop Shop.

Last Night's GOI
--at Alabama 69, Mississippi 58. Bama gets a must win. Rebs are hurtin' at this point.
--at Arkansas 67, Mississippi State 58. Both these teams are pretty far away.
--Villanova 78, at UConn 74. Nova can rest fairly easy now.
--Maryland 85, at Duke 77. The Terps were considered an NIT team not long ago, and now are battling for a protected seed.
--at Kentucky 82, Georgia 70. This LOCKS Kentucky and puts Georgia behind the 8-ball, especially with the injury of Mike Mercer and suspension of Levi Stukes.
--at Penn State 74, Iowa 72. Big Ten Tourney or bust for Hawkeyes.
--Vanderbilt 99, at South Carolina 90 (OT). It was not easy, but Vandy stays in the hunt for a protected seed.
--at Texas 98, Texas A&M 96 (2OT). Puts 'Horns in the mix for a protected seed.
See the OSS for these tourney game results:
--Patriot first round.
--Southern first round.
--Sun Belt first round.

Tonight's GOI
--North Carolina at Georgia Tech. Jackets are very tough at home. This would greatly strengthen UNC's 1-seed hopes.
--Nevada at Utah State. Aggies must win to keep slim AL hopes alive.
--Virginia Tech at Virginia. In-state rivalry alert with major seeding consequences.
--Southern Cal at Washington. USC needs this to vie for a protected seed.
--UCLA at Washington State. UCLA can lock up the Pac-10 regular season title with a win.
See the OSS for these tourney game times and matchups:
--Atlantic Sun quarterfinals.
--Big South semifinals.
--Missouri Valley first round.
--Northeast quarterfinals.
--Southern quarterfinals.

Conference Tourneys Underway!

The One Stop Stop is updated through last night's tourney games. I also upgraded Tennessee to a LOCK in the Lockbox.

Today's bracket is up as well. A close evaluation of Purdue and Drexel led me to choose Drexel as my last team in today. Syracuse is in for the first time in a long while. They were among the last teams in along with Missouri State, Georgia Tech, and the aforementioned Drexel. Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas State, Michigan, Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma State were all close. Drexel is going to be an interesting case to watch, especially if they go deep in the CAA Tourney.

Conference tourney action in the Sun Belt, Patriot, and Southern begins tonight. Enjoy!

Last Night's GOI
--BYU 62, at Air Force 58. AFA is limping to the wire. BYU is in great shape now.
--at Michigan 67, Michigan State 56. Wolverines answer the bell and stay on the Bubble.
--at Oklahoma State 84, Kansas State 70. Cowboys got a desperately needed win to stay in the picture. K-State is now 3-4 in their last seven.
--at Pittsburgh 80, West Virginia 66. It's slipping away for WVU. They are going to need a Big East Tourney run.
--at Tennessee 86, Florida 76. One seeds do not trail 60-36 to anyone this late in the season. Florida may need to win the SEC Tourney to capture a 1-seed.
See the OSS for these tourney game results:
--Big South first round.
--Horizon first round.
--Ohio Valley first round.

Tonight's GOI
--Mississippi at Alabama. Both are nearing must-win territory.
--Mississippi State at Arkansas. See above.
--Villanova at UConn. Nova is likely a tourney team, but they need to ensure a .500 conference record.
--Maryland at Duke. Strictly for ACC and NCAA seeding purposes. These teams are IN.
--Georgia at Kentucky. Monumental game for UGA. Kentucky needs to right the ship after a 1-4 stretch.
--Iowa at Penn State. Hawkeyes razor-thin chances cannot afford this kind of setback.
--Vanderbilt at South Carolina. 'Dores beware; Gamecocks have beaten Mississippi and Tennessee in their last two home games.
--Texas A&M at Texas. For positioning and bragging rights.
See the OSS for these tourney game times and matchups:
--Patriot first round.
--Southern first round.
--Sun Belt first round.

Whole Lotta Lockin' Goin' On

Here is today's updated Lockbox. The Bubble looks to be down to about seven today.

A host of teams have locked up bids this week, as the Lockbox attests. The Bubble seems much smaller at this point, although conference tourneys always throw a wrench into things.

The ACC has six LOCKS already. That may seem crazy, but none of the 10-win ACC teams will miss, and Duke and Maryland have finished so well that even losing their last three would not keep them out.

I moved Syracuse IN and Drexel OUT after the Orange topped Georgetown last night.

There are lots more updates in the One Stop Shop as well. Enjoy the start of conference tourney season tonight!

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--32 teams are either LOCKED (all caps BLACK font) or look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Ten of them are conference leaders. That means that 22 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Six other teams look pretty safe, but are not certain. Those teams are listed in blue. One is a conference leader, so that accounts for five more AL slots. That accounts for 27 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, seven slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--at Syracuse 72, Georgetown 58. This huge win puts The Cuse on the good side of the Bubble.
--Kansas 67, at Oklahoma 65. Jayhawks survive and put pressure on Texas A&M to win at Texas on Wed.

Tonight's GOI
--BYU at Air Force. AFA must win to stay alive for Mt West crown.
--Michigan State at Michigan. In-state rivalry alert! Sparty is starting to roll, and Wolverines have to start a miraculous run right now to have any hopes.
--Kansas State at Oklahoma State. Both are likely OUT right now, but very much Bubble Boys.
--Iowa at Penn State. Hawkeyes razor-thin chances cannot afford this kind of setback.
--West Virginia at Pittsburgh. 'Eers are going to need a strong finish to get IN. A win here would go miles and miles.
--Florida at Tennessee. Gators have look lax of late. Vols are 15-0 at home.
See the OSS for these tourney game matchups and times:
--Big South first round.
--Horizon first round.
--Ohio Valley first round.

Two Weeks 'til Selection Sunday

The bids are going like hotcakes now that the conference season has entered it's final week. Let's stick with bracket talk today and I will have a fully updated LOCKBOX ready tomorrow and it will look quite different than any before it.

The bottom of the bracket seemed a little less confusing to me this week. The last two slots were pretty tough, though. I took Georgia Tech and Drexel over a host of contenders including Georgia, Alabama, Kansas State, West Virginia, Syracuse, and bunch of other fringe Bubble Boys. Georgia Tech will have to finish strong to stay in, and Drexel got in on the strength of an astounding THIRTEEN road wins. Plus, the Dragons have a rather robust seven Top 100 RPI wins. For comparison's sake, West Virginia has four and Kansas State has five. Georgia and Alabama have eight each, but both have been dreadful on the road and 'Bama is 6-8 in conference. Syracuse's profile is close, but the Dragon's road warrior badge of honor puts them over the top for now. They will probably need to run deep in the CAA Tourney to get ultimately get IN.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (7): North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Maryland, Boston College, Georgia Tech
Big East (6): Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Notre Dame
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington State, Southern Cal, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue
SEC (4): Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky
Big XII (4): Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech
Missouri Valley (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
Mountain West (3): UNLV, Air Force, BYU
Colonial (3): VCU, Old Dominion, Drexel

There are also a whole gaggle of updates in the One Stop Shop. There are a smattering of other teams that have locked up tourney bracket slots, but those will have to wait until tomorrow. I will also try to clean up the game times.

Conference tourney action begins tomorrow in the Big South, Horizon, and Ohio Valley!

Tonight's GOI
--Georgetown at Syracuse. The Orange finish with this one and at Villanova on Saturday. Even a split would make their resume a lot more palatable. A sweep likely gets them IN.
--Kansas at Oklahoma. Jayhawks lost to Texas A&M in their only meeting, so they must win out and hope A&M loses at Texas.

Lockbox Update/Weekend

I'm simply not going to have time for a bracket today. Work stuff coupled with my band playing a show tonight is not going to allow it.

I do have an updated Lockbox ready to go. Also, I think some other teams have LOCKED their spots:

Duke, Georgetown, Memphis

The OSS saw several teams clinch last night. The top five spots of the SoCon are set. The top three of the Mid-Con are lined up, too.

Last Night's GOI
--at Appalachian State 80,UNC-Greensboro 66. Mountaineers clinch SoCon North.
--at Clemson 71, Duke 66. Tigers are in serious trouble. Teams 2-8 in their last ten don't get into the tourney regardless of their schedule.
--at New Mexico State 76, Utah State 73. It's going to be tough for either of these clubs to get an AL bid.
--at Oregon 64, Washington State 59. Ducks answered the bell when they needed to.
--at Southern Cal 69, Stanford 65. Trojans are in a very strong position now.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Tennessee at Arkansas. Vols desperately need to cash in on the road.
--Clemson at Boston College. Tigers have to turn it around in short order.
--Detroit at Butler. Dogs have been less than invincible lately.
--Kansas State at Colorado. KSU has to have this one.
--Wichita State at Creighton. Jays need to stop this mini-slide.
--Xavier at Dayton. XU needs to keep working on their AL profile in case they do not win the A-10 tourney.
--NC State at Florida State. Must win for 'Noles.
--Pitt at Georgetown. HEAVY hitters of the Big East.
--Mississippi State at Georgia. MSU is a latecomer that is gaining steam.
--Indiana at Michigan State. Spartans seem to be putting it together at the right time.
--Missouri at Nebraska. Tigers are a long shot, but they are not out of it.
--Marquette at Notre Dame. Irish would be in pretty good shape with a win here.
--Syracuse at Providence. Both need this one badly to stay in the picture.
--BYU at San Diego State. Cougar win would make them extremely difficult to catch in the MWC.
--Mississippi at South Carolina. Rebels are clawing for the SEC West lead and an AL bid.
--Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. Cowboys seem to be running out of steam. TT is one of the more unpredictable teams in the land.
--Stanford at UCLA. This would lock it up for the Cardinal.
--Georgia Tech at Virginia. Jackets need it more.
Sunday
--Louisville at UConn. This would all but lock it up for the Cards.
--North Carolina at Maryland. Terps are surging and playing for seeding now.
--Wisconsin at Ohio State. Massive Big Ten title implications.
--Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Winner gets a huge leg up for E2 slot and SEC tourney bye.

More Lines Filled

Today's congrats:

Florida (SEC). The Gators clinched the 1E slot in the SEC tourney.
Creighton. #2 Valley.
Missouri State. #3 Valley.

Check out the updated One Stop Shop for more updates.

Full bracket update coming tomorrow.

This blog follows the Sun Belt conference closer than any other, and the Belt regular season will be wrapped up in games tonight and on Saturday.

Tonight
UL-Lafayette (7-9) at FIU (6-10).
UALR (7-9) at New Orleans (8-8).
Arkansas State (9-7) at North Texas (9-7). Both still alive for West crown, #2 spot, and a bye in the conference tourney. ASU won the first meeting, so they can put the Mean Green behind them for good
Denver (3-14) at UL-Monroe (10-6). A UL-Monroe win assures them no worse than a coin flip for the #2 spot. They have the tie-breaker over North Texas and have split with Arkansas State. A win coupled with an ASU loss clinches the #2 bye for ULM.
Middle Tennessee (7-9) at Troy (6-10).

I will post another update tomorrow after tonight's results.

Last Night's GOI
--at Auburn 67, Arkansas 59. I'm calling this a pig roast. Ark looks well-done at this point.
--at Illinois 54, Michigan 42. Wolverines are going to need to find magic in the Big 10 tourney; Illini hold onto their AL hopes.
--at Iowa 78, Purdue 59. Purdue simply stinks on the road. Bad loss with bad timing.
--at Maryland 73, Florida State 55. 'Noles are in serious trouble. They will have a losing regular season conference record no matter what occurs. Meanwhile, the Terps are close to locking up their spot. One more win will probably do it.
--at Mississippi 67, Georgia 49. Big blow to UGA; Ole Miss is hanging in there.
--at Mississippi State 83, Vanderbilt 70. On on the outside, here come the Bulldogs! They are now tied with Ole Miss for the SEC West lead.
--Texas A&M 66, at Oklahoma State 46. When you are on the Bubble, 20-point home losses are generally a bad thing.
--at Tennessee 69, Alabama 66 (OT). Two horrible road teams...and the result held to form.
--at Virginia Tech 79, Boston College 62. Have fun figuring out what to do with VA Tech in your bracket picks.
--at Xavier 98, Rhode Island 72. It's now XU and UMass at the top of the A-10.

Tonight's GOI
--UNC-Greensboro at Appalachian State. An ASU win clinches the SoCon North.
--Duke at Clemson. Tigers are in danger. A win here would help a great deal.
--Utah State at New Mexico State. Two fringe Bubble teams--loser probably gets popped.
--Washington State at Oregon. Ducks need a win badly and they are at home. Time to see what they are made of.
--Stanford at Southern Cal. Winner all but seals their bid.

Bubble Stays at 11

"Nothing could be finer than being in your diner." ~Jerry, Seinfeld: "The Bubble Boy Episode"

First, congratulations to Winthrop (Big South) and Southern Illinois (Valley) for securing #1 slots in their conference tourneys. Winthrop did the trick with a come-from-behind win over High Point last night, while SIU clinched when Creighton lost at Illinois State. This and more conference tourney updates in the One Stop Shop.

We turn now to the Bubble Boys and the Lockbox. The rampant losing by some formerly high-falutin' teams is making it crowded at the bottom. Apart from OK State, Texas Tech, Clemson, and a few other formerly solidly IN teams, Tennessee and Creighton are really pushing their luck. I left the Jays as "win games they should" simply because they have one home game and the Valley Tourney left. If they beat Wichita State at home and grab a win or two in the Valley Tourney, they will likely be OK.

Tennessee has such an abysmal road record that they are in real danger if they drop a home game (Florida still to come). They might even need to take care of Arkansas or UGA on the road to feel solid. Their fat RPI and some nice wins will help buoy them as long as they get to 8-8 in the SEC. But, with Alabama coming in tonight, two road games, and Florida coming in next week, the schedule is going to be tough to navigate for the Vols. They have to be considered a Bubble Boy at this point.

Meanwhile, Drexel and Old Dominion are charging hard in the CAA. Louisville and Maryland have went from OUT to pretty solid bracket picks in the last few games. Michigan State will get serious mileage out of their win over Wisconsin last night. The Mountain West looks to be in great shape for three bids this year, too (BYU, UNLV, AFA). So, not EVERYONE is losing. It just seems that way.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--26 teams are either LOCKED (all caps BLACK font) or look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of them are conference leaders. That means that 15 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Eight other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 23 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 11 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--Northern Iowa 79, at Bradley 70. Home losses at this juncture for a team like Bradley pretty much drops the curtains on an AL bid.
--at Kentucky 70, LSU 63. Cats get their win in less than impressive fashion over Big Baby-less Tigers.
--at Michigan State 64, Wisconsin 55. Drew Neitzel: Bacon-saver extraordinaire.
--at Notre Dame 78, DePaul 54. Irish move a step closer. A win at Rutgers in their last game probably wraps up their bid. But, that road record...
--at Providence 64, West Virginia 61. Friars hanging on by a thread. WVU is not home free yet.
--at Texas 80, Texas Tech 51. Raiders were ground into the pavement by a burnt orange bootheel. Bobby's boys are WILDLY inconsistent and hard to figure.
--at UNLV 60, Air Force 50. Big Rebel win also puts BYU two games clear of both of these clubs.
--Missouri State 71, at Wichita State 65. Bears got off the mat late in the game to claw out a win. Shockers are pretty much done as an AL possibility.

Tonight's GOI
--Arkansas at Auburn. Razorbacks need to pile up some wins starting RIGHT NOW.
--Michigan at Illinois. Neither team can really afford a loss at this point.
--Purdue at Iowa. Boilers would be in decent shape if they could post a road win.
--Florida State at Maryland. 'Noles have fallen off the pace with four straight losses. They have two winnable games left after this one, so a win here would be golden.
--Georgia at Mississippi. Both still alive, but Ole Miss has to hold home court. Could be a big roadie for Dawgs.
--Vanderbilt at Mississippi State. 'Dores have to beware of a letdown after Florida win.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma State. Cowboys are falling quickly and would likely fall out of the bracket with another "L".
--Alabama at Tennessee. Vols have been very tough at home, and they need a win to wash out the taste of that drubbing at South Carolina.
--Boston College at Virginia Tech. It's always fun to guess which Hokie team is going to show.
--Rhode Island at Xavier. Loser falls out of a tie for first in the A-10.

Mission: Accomplised (Sort of)

There are some more teams that need certificates of accomplishment today.

First, these clubs have secured the 1-seeds in their conference tournaments:

America East: Vermont
Mid-Continent: Oral Roberts
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Sun Belt: South Alabama

Congratulations to all of these clubs. There are a smattering of other seeds that have been secured as well. You can see them all in the updated One Stop Shop.

Also, in addition to last weeks LOCKS, these teams also have done enough:

North Carolina, Kansas, Texas A&M, Southern Illinois

View the updated Lockbox for more. The Lockbox will be updated almost daily from here on out.

A full Bubble Boy update is coming tomorrow. It should be expansive.

Last Night's GOI
--Kansas 71, at Kansas State 62. It had all the makings, Blackout Bramlage on ESPN and all, but K-State could not stay in front of Sherron Collins. That will be a problem for many future teams as well.
--at Marquette 80, Villanova 67. Golden Eagles break their skid; Nova falls under .500 in Big East.

Tonight's GOI
--Northern Iowa at Bradley. Braves are in must win mode.
--LSU at Kentucky. Cats need to stop their 3-game slide.
--Wisconsin at Michigan State. It simply does not get bigger for Bubbly Spartans.
--DePaul and Notre Dame. DePaul needs it more, but ND is not safe either.
--West Virginia at Providence. WVU is in better shape; this is probably a must win for the Friars.
--Texas Tech at Texas. Roller coaster Raiders need consistency down the stretch.
--Air Force at UNLV. Both chasing BYU and jockeying for Mt West/NCAA seeding.
--Missouri State at Wichita State. Bears have to have it.

Three Weeks 'til SelSun

This bracket was a challenge at the bottom. It always gets crazy this time of year, doesn't it? Louisville, who has been perfectly average all season long, finds magic and wins two road games over lofty RPI teams. If a team has not done permanent damage to their resume, sometimes that is all it takes: get hot at the end. The Cards are doing that. When Bubbleworld is losing, teams on long win streaks start to look really bracket-friendly (Old Dominion, anyone?).

The last seven slots seemed quite iffy today. I took Notre Dame, Missouri State, Clemson, Purdue, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, and Old Dominion over teams like Illinois, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Georgia, Bradley, Appalachian State, Drexel, Michigan, Gonzaga, Syracuse, DePaul and Arkansas. There were good reasons to leave out the teams that I chose. Hopefully, some of these teams in freefall can get hot and resurrect their seasons (Clemson? OK State? FSU?).

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (8): North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Georgia Tech
Big East (7): Pitt, Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville, Notre Dame
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington State, Southern Cal, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford
SEC (5): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama
Big XII (5): Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue
Missouri Valley (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
Mountain West (3): Air Force, UNLV, BYU
Colonial (2): VCU, Old Dominion

Tonight's GOI
--Kansas at Kansas State. Wildcats could land the big fish for their resume.
--Villanova at Marquette. Golden Eagles try to bounce back from heartbreaking loss to Louisville on Sat. Cats try to get above .500 in Big East.

Weekend Forecast

First, I apologize for having no email link for who knows how long. I was not aware that it had disappeared. There is one to the right now.

Second, thanks for info for the One Stop Shop. I've received many helpful updates on time and TV changes. Keep them coming. With continued proofing, the OSS will be a nice tool for everyone to use during conference tourney time. I've put a permanent link to the right.

No time for a bracket today. I'll try to get two in (Monday and Friday) next week.

Weekend Forecast
Friday
BracketBusters
--Albany at Boise State.
--Winthrop at Missouri State. Winthrop probably cannot get an AL, but a win by Missouri State would help solidify their profile with another top 100 win.
Saturday
--Kentucky at Alabama. Bama sure could use a Top 25 RPI win (current total: 0).
--UCLA at Arizona. Southern Cal just knocked off Zona in Tucson, so they will be smarting.
--Mississippi at Arkansas. Win here makes Rebs a serious AL candidate.
--North Carolina at Boston College. Battle for the top of the ACC.
--Memphis at Gonzaga. This one has lost some of its luster since Mushroom Mania and the snapping of GU's 50-game home win streak.
--Louisville at Marquette. Huge game for UL and they try to follow up on the big win at Pitt.
--Indiana at Michigan. Wolverines are on life support.
--Iowa at Michigan State. This probably feels like a must-win for both clubs.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma. Sooners need a pick-me-up.
--Missouri at Oklahoma State. Cowboys need to snap out of their slump.
--Cornell at Penn. Quakers can put the Big Red two games back with a win.
--Washington at Pitt. Huskies could significantly bolster their OOC profile with this one.
--Oregon at Stanford. Once Mighty Ducks are 2-5 in their last 7.
--Florida at Vanderbilt. Memorial Gym is a dangerous, dangerous venue.
--Georgetown at Villanova. Cats have won 4 straight and have already won at G'town.
--Florida State at Virginia. 'Noles find themselves in need of a win after dropping three straight.
BracketBusters
--Austin Peay at Akron. OVC and MAC top dogs go at it.
--Southern Illinois at Butler. The cream matchup of BB weekend.
--Drexel at Creighton. Dragons could really help themselves here.
--Holy Cross at Hofstra. Just an interesting matchup even though both have little hope as AL teams.
--Northern Iowa at Nevada. Can only hurt Nevada; UNI is pretty much toast as an AL>
--Old Dominion at Toledo. ODU is scrapping on the Bubble. A Top 100 road win would not hurt a bit.
--Bradley at VCU. Must win for either to hope for AL.
--Appalachian State at Wichita State. Tough for either of teams as AL's. Too many sub-100 losses for PSU and too many overall losses for WSU.
Sunday
--Maryland at Clemson. Tigers are 2-6 in their last eight and just lost to Wake. They are in danger of squandering that 17-0 start.
--Georgia Tech at Duke. Jackets broke through on the road at FSU. Duke just stopped their 4-game skid. Someone will come out of this one with some momentum.

One Stop Update

I have update the One Stop Shop after rechecking several tourneys. It is still a work in progress, but it's getting closer. Let me know if you see errors by sending a kind email.

Congrats to Austin Peay! They have locked up the #1 seed in the OVC Tourney and the OSS reflects such. A few other teams have a shot to lock up their tourney's top seed with a win this weekend or losses by trailing teams.

Last Night's GOI
--Duke 78, at Boston College 70. Duke is not on the Bubble, if you were wondering.
--Long Beach 94, at CS-Fullerton 84. Big West is Long Beach's to lose.
--at DePaul 72, Marquette 67. Demons are not quite dead yet.
--at Florida 76, Alabama 67. Big start for Tide crashed in a hurry.
--at Mississippi 71, LSU 70. Ole Miss takes the SEC West lead.
--at Mississippi State 84, Arkansas 60. Stan Heath may be in trouble.
--Maryland 85, at NC State 70. Terps doing what they have to do.
--at Saint Joseph's 62, George Washington 56. Hawks stay alive for A-10 title.
--Washington State 65, at Washington 61. Huskies really needed this one.

Tonight's GOI
--Southern Cal at Arizona. Lots of Pac-10 and NCAA seeding ramifications.
--Providence at Notre Dame. Both are nearing must-win mode.
--Indiana at Purdue. In-state rivalry alert...with meaning!

Bubble Stays at 11

I have made one switch in the Lockbox since Monday's bracket: Kansas State out, Georgia Tech in. Texas Tech is an interesting case, but I'll wait until Monday to do a thorough evaluation of their profile against the rest of the field.

The Bubble stayed at 11 this week, but we have our first LOCKS of the season. The invitations for these five teams are already in the mail:

Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Pitt, UCLA

Even if these teams lose out, they are IN. There are a host of teams that are just a win or two away. I expect this number to jump drastically next week.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--24 teams are either LOCKED (all caps BLACK font) or look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of them are conference leaders. That means that 13 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--10 other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 23 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 11 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--at Creighton 66, Northern Iowa 55. Jays finished strong to put away UNI and stay on track for an AL.
--Georgia Tech 63, at Florida State 57. The value of this road win cannot be overstated. It was GT's fatal flaw, and now they have a good one.
--at Iowa State 58, Oklahoma 51. This one set the Sooners back a good deal.
--at Michigan State 59, Michigan 44. Michigan has lost 5 of 6 and is fading out of the picture entirely.
--at Nebraska 74, Kansas State 63. K-State falls back in the back.
--Virginia Tech 81, at North Carolina 80. All but locked up VT and probably knocks UNC from a 1-seed for the time being.
--at Old Dominion 96, Hofstra 82. Monarchs continue to roll with their 8th straight win.
--at San Diego State 67, UNLV 52. Aztecs are peaking at the right time.
--at Tennessee 89, Kentucky 85. Vols looking like their old selves. UK now 3-7 vs Top 50 RPI.
--Texas Tech 77, at Texas A&M 75. Monster road win that stops a 5-game skid for TT.

Tonight's GOI
--Duke at Boston College. Devils find themselves in dire need of a "W."
--Long Beach at CS-Fullerton. A Titans win pulls them into a tie with the 49ers atop the Big West.
--Marquette at DePaul. Dangerous game for Marquette who is still in the mix for the BIg East title.
--Alabama at Florida. Big, albeit unlikely, opportunity for Tide.
--LSU at Mississippi. With Bama at Florida, Ole Miss has a good shot to take the SEC West lead tonight.
--Arkansas at Mississippi State. Two more SEC West teams scrapping for position.
--Maryland at NC State. Terps cannot afford losses of any kind.
--Indiana at Purdue. In-state rivalry alert! Good rivalry game with high stakes this year.
--George Washington at Saint Joseph's. Loser falls two games back of A-10 leaders.
--Washington State at Washington. In-state rivalry alert! Huskies can get back into the AL mix with a win.

And Down the Stretch They Come

First, you really need to read The Mid-Majority's take on the Gonzaga 'shroom situation.

Now, read on about seven horses who stumbled out of the gate, but have gained on the field and positioned themselves for a strong stretch run. Some of these horses will thunder home and some will run out of gas. At any rate, their recent exploits are to be noticed and commended.

1. Bucknell. The much-celebrated Bison got off to a rocky start, but since a loss to Central Arkansas (!) on Dec 29, the Bison have navigated the Patriot League with just one tough loss at Holy Cross by 5. They balanced the ledger with the HC by beating them 48-45 on Friday. There will be no At-Large for the Bison, but if they do not play HC for the Patriot title, I (and most) will be shocked.

2. Louisville. They had been treading water with the vanilla-ist of profiles until last night, when they smoked Big East leader Pittsburgh by 12 in the Zoo. This win alone will not get UL in, but that kind of play from here on out will.

3. Oklahoma. The Sooners are 6-4 in the Big XII and they have paid their road dues. They have Texas A&M, Texas, and Kansas all in Norman left on the slate. Lots of chances to make a late-season impression on the committee.

4. Iowa. Hawkeyes are a real long shot, but they have won 4 of 6, with the two losses coming to Wisconsin. A strong finish and a good Big Ten tourney could do the trick, especially if they wind up alone in 4th in the Big Ten.

5. Old Dominion. George Mason, Hofstra, Drexel, VCU. All have taken their turn as the CAA darling. But, ODU has won seven straight and that includes a 16-pt walloping of leader VCU. They also have an early-season win over Georgetown on the resume. Another long shot, but they can make it interesting with a big finish.

6. Mississippi. In the parity-ridden SEC West, 5-5 (tie for first) looks pretty good. If the Rebs wind up winning the division, they will be hard to leave at home kNITting.

7. Washington. Since that 1-6 Pac-10 start, the Huskies are 5-1. They host Washington State in a monster game tomorrow night.

Last Night's GOI
--Davidson 73, at College of Charleston 63. Davidson asserts their SoCon South dominance.
--at Georgetown 71, West Virginia 53. Hoya Paranoia is sweeping the countryside.
--Santa Clara 84, at Gonzaga 73. Broncs now sit alone in first in the WCC.
--Louisville 66, at Pitt 53. Cards score a huge win for their resume. They are now certainly in the mix at 8-4 in the Big East.
--at Texas 83, Oklahoma State 54. These two seem to be heading in opposite directions.

Tonight's GOI
--Northern Iowa at Creighton. Jays look to bounce back from tough SIU loss.
--Georgia Tech at Florida State. Both need it, but if GT has any hope, they need to score a road win or two.
--Oklahoma at Iowa State. Sooners are quietly creeping up the Big XII standings. They have Texas A&M, Texas, and Kansas all coming into Norman at season's end. If they could nab one or two of those, plus score this road win, OU might get into the mix.
--Michigan at Michigan State. Both are in desperation mode.
--Kansas State at Nebraska. K-State cannot afford any slip-ups.
--Virginia Tech at North Carolina. UNC lookin' for payback.
--Hofstra at Old Dominion. Monarchs' seven straight wins have put them into the Bubble mix.
--UNLV at San Diego State. Aztecs have ripped off four straight including that 21-point pasting of Air Force.
--Kentucky at Tennessee. Vols are 13-0 at home and Lofton is back. They need a big win to solidify that they are the team that they were before Lofton went down. UK tries to recover from "The one that got away" after their horrid shooting performance against Florida.
--Texas Tech at Texas A&M. Not an easy game for Bob Knight's club to end a 5-game losing streak.

BIG Weekend

Lots of big games on tap this weekend, so let's get to it.

Last Night's GOI
--at DePaul 67, Notre Dame 66. All of these road losses are going to bite ND's seeding.
--Drexel 95, at Hofstra 87 (OT). Dragons score a huge road win.
--at UMass 77, Rhode Island 55. Minutemen left no doubt about who is driving the A-10 bus.
--at South Alabama 73, Western Kentucky 71 (OT). USA is now 3 games clear of WKU in the Sun Belt East with 4 games to play.
--at Washington 79, at Cal 71. Huskies have won 4 of 5 and have BIG home games vs Stanford and Washington State on deck.
--at Washington State 58, Stanford 45. WaSU stands alone in 2nd in the Pac-10.

Weekend Forecast
Friday
--Holy Cross at Bucknell. Bison have won 7 straight since losing at HC. They can tie HC for first in the Patriot with a win.
Saturday
--Xavier at George Washington. Important A-10 tilt and XU has little room for error.
--Marquette at Georgetown. Winner will be alone in 2nd in the Big East...assuming Pitt wins vs Providence.
--Illinois at Indiana. Illini could make hay with a big road win.
--Florida at Kentucky. Must win for UK to have any hope of winning the SEC East.
--Arkansas at LSU. SEC West is waiting for someone to take charge.
--Alabama at Mississippi. See above.
--Kansas at Missouri. Border war alert!
--Montana at Montana State. In-state rivalry alert!
--Missouri State at Northern Iowa. Bears need to stamp their mark as the clear-cut third best team in the MVC.
--Purdue at Ohio State. Boiler win would go a long way on their resume.
--Texas Tech at Oklahoma State. Tech needs it more, but both badly need a win.
--VCU at Old Dominion. A win would pull ODU within one of the Rams in the CAA.
--Arizona at Oregon. Ducks need to win to stay in the Pac-10 title hunt.
--Providence at Pitt. Friars need to pile up some quality wins to be in the mix.
--Austin Peay at Samford. The OVC's best.
--Georgia at South Carolina. UGA cannot afford to lose this type of game.
--Creighton at Southern Illinois. Outright Valley lead is on the line.
--Vanderbilt at Tennessee. Lofton is back, but Vols need a good win to re-establish themselves.
--Akron at Toledo. The MAC's best.
--Virginia at Virginia Tech. All kinds of tasty morsels in this one (ACC jockeying, in-state rivalry, NCAA seeding...)
--UCLA at West Virginia. The 'Eers have a nice record sorely lacking in quality wins. This would qualify.
--Butler at Wright State. Raiders can tie BU in the Horizon with a win.
Sunday
--Vermont at Albany. Danes can gain a tie atop the America East with a win.
--Boston College at Florida State. BC fighting to stay tied for ACC lead; FSU fighting to get above .500.
--Duke at Maryland. Both teams find themselves in dire need of a win.
--Stanford at Washington. Huskies are getting hot, and they need to get hotter.

State of the Sun Belt: Stretch Run Edition

Sprawling across the galaxy, the Sun Belt likely covers more real estate than any other conference in America. It stretches its considerable legs from Miami, FL, to Denver, CO, creating brutal travel schedules for just about everyone. For example, with the Thursday/Saturday game schedule, UL-Monroe played Arkansas State at home on on Jan 4, then had to be in Denver to play the Pioneers on Jan 6. Western Kentucky made an Arkansas State-Denver road swing with just one full day between games. Travel in this league is not for the faint of heart.

The play has been gruesome as well. The league is filled with poor defensive teams and not too many good offensive ones (WKU, USA, New Orleans, and North Texas make the cut). Belt teams are 2-31 against BCS conference teams. There are several teams that should be on the uptick next season, but that's a post for sometime in March or April.

The two best teams in the league will meet tonight in Mobile, Alabama. WKU (9-4) is coming off a loss at North Texas while South Alabama (11-2) has won 10 straight. For all intents and purposes, this game is for the East Division crown. USA can all but salt it away with a win, while WKU can pull within a game and gain a season sweep, giving them the tie-breaker if USA were to falter down the stretch. North Texas and New Orleans also face off in an important West Division matchup as well. After this weekend, most teams will have just three or four conference games left.

Here is a look at what the Belt bracket would look like as of today.

Last Night's GOI
--at Alabama 80, Mississippi State 79. Tide eke out another home win. Will ANYONE in the SEC West take the bull by the horns?
--at Arkansas 65, Auburn 57. And, here is your most likely candidate: The Ark.
--at Clemson 71, Florida State 58. Tigers get a much-needed big win.
--North Carolina 79, at Duke 73. Three ACC home losses for Duke and counting.
--Florida 71, at Georgia 61. No shame for the Dawgs, but they are right on the Bubble.
--at Kansas 97, Kansas State 70. Not a good performance by the Bubbly Wildcats.
--Georgetown 73, at Louisville 65. It simply does not look like it's in the Cards.
--Illinois 58, at Northwestern 53. Illini are quietly doing what they have to do.
--at Oklahoma 67, Oklahoma State 60. Cowboys now 0-4 in true road games.
--at Purdue 62, Michigan State 38. Spartans are spiraling downward with alarming speed.
--Bradley at SIU. Braves need a monster finish for any AL hope.
--at UCLA 70, Southern Cal 65. UCLA keeps its grip on the top of the Pac-10.
--Pittsburgh 60, at West Virginia 47. 'Eers look like a classic Bubbly Boy.
--at Xavier 76, Saint Louis 57. Xavier needs to stay near the top of the A-10 for AL hopes.

Tonight's GOI
--Notre Dame at DePaul. Irish desperately need to cash in on the road.
--Drexel at Hofstra. Good, clean, CAA fun.
--Rhode Island at UMass. Winner takes the outright lead in the A-10.
--Western Kentucky at South Alabama. The Sun Belt's best square off.
--Cal at Washington. Both need to win lots of games, so loser will take a blow.
--Stanford at Washington State. A battle for position and seeding.

Bubble Shrinks to 11

The bottom of the bracket continues to be in flux. After last night's results, I pulled Maryland's bid and gave it to Georgia Tech. I also replaced Texas Tech with Kansas State. I cannot in good conscience leave in Texas Tech, losers of four in a row, over K-State (won 7 straight) who is a full three games clear in the Big XII loss column. View the full Lockbox here.

Gonzaga's AL hopes took another blow last night at Loyola Marymount. This could be the first year in a while that the Zags need to win the WCC tourney.

Tennessee continues to be an interesting test case. Chris Lofton returned last night, but did not have a great game. The Vols still took care of LSU in Knoxville by three. UT stays in for now.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--22 teams look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of them are conference leaders. That means that 11 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--12 other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 23 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 11 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--Virginia 69, at Maryland 65. Cavs appear to be for real, and MD is now 3-6 ACC with a pretty tough skeddie remaining (Duke x2, UNC, FSU, at Clemson still left).
--at Ohio State 76, Michigan 63. Different year, same story for Amaker and Michigan.
--at Tennessee 70, LSU 67. Lofton did return and was still not himself, but it was enough to beat hapless LSU (2-7 SEC!!!).
--at Villanova 56, St. Joseph's 39. Nova looking pretty solid lately.
--BYU 77, at Wyoming 73. Don't underestimate this win for BYU. It's tough to win in Laramie.
BONUS SCORE
--at San Diego State 62, Air Force 41. Losing on the road at SDSU is not terribly surprising, but for razor-sharp AFA to lose by 21 to anybody is a bit of a shock.

Tonight's GOI
--Mississippi State at Alabama. Time for 'Bama to put up or shut up.
--Auburn at Arkansas. Same goes for the Hogs.
--Florida State at Clemson. Tigers find themselves in need of a W. Badly.
--North Carolina at Duke. Have you heard about this game?
--Drexel at Hofstra. Good, clean, CAA fun.
--Kansas State at Kansas. Wildcats looking for that win that puts them in serious bracket contention.
--Georgetown at Louisville. Cards will dedicate the Freedom Hall court to Denny Crum tonight. They need to start cashing in some big wins NOW.
--Illinois at Northwestern. Illini need ANY kind of road win.
--Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. In-state rivalry alert!
--Michigan State at Purdue. Two Big Ten Bubble Boys.
--Bradley at SIU. Braves need a monster finish for any AL hope.
--Southern Cal at UCLA. In-city rivalry alert! A USC win could create a 3-loss logjam at the top of the Pac-10.
--Pittsburgh at West Virginia. 'Eers with a golden opportunity to secure a badly needed signature win.
--Saint Louis at Xavier. Xavier has a slim margin for error for At-Large purposes.

SCKySSiP III/More TBB on WNKY

Apologies for yesterday...it seems my bracket post never made it through Blogger. You can see the bracket post below this one now.

The wheels are in motion for the 3rd installment of the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (ridiculously long name used for effect). The SCKySSiP will likely be an 8-member committee which will replicate the selection process as closely as possible. We will follow the NCAA Selection Criteria to the best of our ability. Give this a read when you have time. It helps to explain how teams get into (or are left out of) the bracket. More on this when the regular season ends.

You can now read my musings on WKU Hilltopper hoops and other sports on WNKY (a local Bowling Green TV station). I'll be writing a blog for them for the rest of the season, and hopefully beyond that. I may even try my hand at covering some Hilltopper baseball and softball later in the Spring.

Last Night's GOI
--at UConn 67, Syracuse 60. Both of these teams are going to need major runs to close the season.
--at Indiana State 59, Northern Iowa 46. Trees toss the first shovel of dirt on UNI's At-Large grave.
--at Texas A&M 100, Texas 82. A&M is driving the Big XII bus.
--at Utah State 75, New Mexico State 63. This makes an At-Large very difficult for NMSU.

Tonight's GOI
--Virginia at Maryland. The Terps have to hold serve at home to stay close to .500 in the ACC.
--Michigan at Ohio State. Amaker's club needs a monster win to restore hopes.
--LSU at Tennessee. Tennessee badly needs Chris Lofton to return.
--St. Joseph's at Villanova. In-city rivalry alert! Mmmmmm...Big Five.
--BYU at Wyoming. Careful, Cougs. Cowboys are 9-1 at home (2-point loss to AFA).

Five Weeks Until SelSun

Here's how the the bracket looks with five weeks to go. Conferences are solidifying a bit, although the ACC and SEC are still a mess. Several teams from those two will likely scrap it out until the end for a limited number of slots. Somebody has to lose those conference games and it's tough to get in with a losing conference record. Are you listening Arkansas? Georgia Tech? Maryland? LSU? Even Clemson?

There was some change at the bottom this week. I took Alabama, Illinois, Michigan State, and Georgia over teams like Kansas State, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Syracuse and New Mexico State.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Maryland
Big East (6): Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame, West Virginia
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, Stanford, Southern Cal, Arizona
SEC (6): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama
Big Ten (6): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois
Big XII (5): Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas
Missouri Valley (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
Mountain West (3): Air Force, UNLV, BYU

Tonight's GOI
--Syracuse at UConn. Two teams that have been heading in the wrong direction.
--Northern Iowa at Indiana State. Panthers probably have to have this game.
--Texas at Texas A&M. Aggies are alone in first place, but Horns can gain a tie with a win.
--New Mexico State at Utah State. NMSU has won 15 of 16, but USU is 9-0 at home.

Weekend Forecast

We have our first real snow here in south central Kentucky today (2-3"). For those of you from snowier parts of the country, three inches of snow pretty much slows things to a halt around here. This is a great weekend to watch hoops if you live in KY.

Last Night's GOI
--Washington State 72, at Arizona 66. Cougars get a golden road win.
--Old Dominion 62, at Drexel 52. Monarchs now alone in 3rd with Drexel 4th in the CAA.
--at UCLA 69, Oregon 57. Bruins hold court and earn the season split.
--at Virginia 68, Duke 66 (OT). Duke was in control for much of the game, but the Cavs were clutch late.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Washington at Arizona. The Huskies have shown signs of life and a win here ties them with Zona in the Pac-10.
--Kentucky at Arkansas. Hogs need this one more and they are at home.
--Virginia Tech at Boston College. These two are currently tied for 2nd in the ACC.
--UNLV at BYU. Cougars must cash in this golden opportunity for a quality win.
--Stanford at Cal. Cal's hopes are slim, so winning home games is imperative.
--UNC-Greensboro at Davidson. UNCG is red-hot and Davidson is a league best 10-1.
--Creighton at Drake. Avoid this land mine, and the Jays are sitting pretty with 4 of their last 6 at home.
--Northern Iowa at Evansville. UNI cannot afford a loss here.
--Tennessee at Florida. Vols are coming off a big win over UGA.
--Clemson at Georgia Tech. Home losses for 2-6 ACC teams are bad. Real bad.
--Missouri State at Indiana State. Bears must be careful on the road here.
--Indiana at Iowa. Hoosiers must beware of post-Wiscy hangover.
--Texas A&M at Kansas. Loser falls out of tie for Big XII lead.
--Loyola (MD) at Marist. Two of the better MAAC clubs.
--Ohio State at Michigan State. Quick turnaround rematch from last weekend.
--LSU at Mississippi State. LSU has to get of the mat VERY soon.
--North Carolina at NC State. In-state rivalry alert!
--Texas Tech at Oklahoma. Raiders have lost two straight.
--Oregon at Southern Cal. Two of the four 3-loss teams in the Pac-10.
--DePaul at Syracuse. Orange need wins of any sort right now.
--Kansas State at Texas. Wildcats have won 6 straight.
--Georgia at Vanderbilt. Both have been pretty hot in the SEC East. UGA was cooled down by Tennessee early in the week, however.
--Louisville at Villanova. Let's see if the Cards are for real.
--Southern Illinois at Wichita State. Shockers have been playing much better of late.

Sunday
--Florida State at Duke. An FSU wins ties them with Duke in the ACC.

Local Store: One Stop Shop

(Enter cheesy hometown grocery store jingle)
Where do you go when you need a score?
THE ONE STOP SHOP!
Where do you go for brackets and more?
THE ONE STOP SHOP!
When you're at work burning company time,
Refreshing Yahoo! game scores until you go blind,
All 30 conference tourney brackets in one place,
Will be sure to leave a goofy grin on your face!
THE ONE STOP SHOP!

Hello everyone, and welcome to the One Stop Shop. This is your community market for all your shopping needs.

Our prices are the lowest in town (read: FREE). All it costs you is the 1/1000th of a calorie that you burn clicking your mouse.

What we do ask here at the OSS is that you send a kind email if you find errors on game times, locations, bracket set up, or scores and such. This is a community market, so make it better by being a heady shopper and pointing out errors in a constructive manner. The OSS does have nearly 300 games in 30 tourneys, so mistakes are bound to crop up.

Keep an eye out for our red text specials. Red text at the OSS means that we have not finalized this information. If you have links showing verification for game times or TV not yet cemented in the OSS, please email TBB and let us know.

We are still under construction, but we thought you might enjoy browsing in the month leading up to conference tourney time.

Thanks for shopping with us, and enjoy all the conference tourney brackets in this handy shop.

(Re-enter cheesy music)
THE OOOOONNNNNEEEE, STAHHHHHHHHP, SHOP!

Last Night's GOI
--Creighton 82, at Bradley 71. Big win for the Jays...tremendous blow to Braves.
--at Dayton 84, George Washington 69. A-10 is going to be wild and woolly.
--at Florida 74, Vanderbilt 64. Vandy acquitted themselves well, but UF is not likely to lose in the O-dome.
--at Hofstra 79, VCU 68. This is the pride we expected from the get-go.
--at Indiana 71, Wisconsin 66. Hoosiers score a signature win.
--Alabama 73, at LSU 70. LSU looks dead in the water.
--at Ohio 91, Toledo 80. Bobcats hand the Rockets their first conference loss.
--Ohio State 78, at Purdue 60. Boilers are pretty far out on the fringe.
--Gonzaga 90, at Stanford 86. Zags likely cemented their bid barring multiple WCC losses..
--at Tennessee 82, Georgia 71. No Lofton, no problem. UGA lost its shooting mojo (38%).
--Texas 76, at Texas Tech 64. Apparently, Kevin Durant can play a little basketball.
--BYU 76, at Utah 66. Cougars looking more viable by the day.

Tonight's GOI
--Washington State at Arizona. Zona can tie WaSU in the Pac-10 standings with a win here.
--Old Dominion at Drexel. Nice CAA tilt.
--Oregon at UCLA. They do not get any bigger in the regular season. One seeds for Pac-10 and NCAA tourneys at stake.
--Duke at Virginia. Cavs have won four straight ACC games including two on the road.