Tuesday, March 13, 2007

SCKySSiP, Lockbox, and Lousville

There are several items for discussion today.

Our third edition of a mock selection selection once again matched most bracketologists projections. This shows that most bracket heads out there have a pretty good grasp on what the committee is trying to do. The actual 10-member committee does NOT sit in a room debating teams over brandy and cigars and handing out seeds as a result of their conversation. Far from it. The process begins with each member submitting two lists: 1) a list of all teams that should be IN, and 2) a list of all other teams for consideration. Teams appearing on at least 8/10 committee members' List #1 goes into the tournament. All other teams, along with all teams on List 2, go onto an At-Large Nomination board.

From this point, members nominate 8 teams on the ALN board. The top 4 vote-getters are held over for a future vote. Then, 8 more teams are nominated and those top 4 join the four that were held over. This 8-team list is then ranked 1-8 by all members. The top four vote-getters go into the tournament. The four teams that did not get in are held over for the next vote. Then, eight more teams are nominated. This process is repeated until all 34 at-large spots are filled. When that occurs, teams are seeded using the same process. Of course debate about X team does occur, but any given team's fate is decided by a 10-member vote.

And this is exactly what the SCKySSiP did. We replicated the selection process. Have another look at our results, only we had to rely much more on paper copies, a kitchen table, and Papa John's pizza in place of a fancy hotel, PC's for everyone, and whatever the real committee ate (some of Josh Heytvelt's mushrooms, I'd guess, based on some of the seeds).

Lockbox Accuracy
Can readers count on the TBB's Lockbox? The Lockbox had 25 teams LOCKED. They all got in. I also had Michigan State as a near lock and they also got in (26/26 so far). So, all teams guaranteed by the Lockbox made the field.

Syracuse was listed as "projected IN, but not a sure bet." Turns out, they were not a sure bet at all, I guess. This was the only real miss by the Lockbox. Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Illinois, Purdue, Xavier, Old Dominion, and Drexel were Bubble IN, and all but one made the cut (Drexel).

So, if the Lockbox says a team is a LOCK, they are a LOCK. Picking Bubble Boys is difficult, and it seems most experts missed on Syracuse and a lot missed on Drexel as well. It was a pretty good year for the Lockbox.

A lot of talking heads (who are obviously not from Kentucky) are under the delusion that 6-seed Louisville will have a monster home court advantage when they play in Lexington (just 70 miles east of the Ville) this weekend. There are a couple of factors that make this unlikely. First, Ohio State is also there. Buckeye fans will suck up tickets in a hurry. Secondly, Louisville is the University of Kentucky's most hated rival. Most locals who have bought tickets to the tourney will be Wildcat fans. This is akin to Michigan playing a bowl game in Columbus, Ohio. Ask Duke if they enjoyed their trip to Lexington a few year's back (they lost to Indiana there in the tourney). Louisville will have it's share of fans to be sure, but there are going to be LOTS of UK fans rooting loud against Pitino's team. This should be an interesting scene.

Tomorrow: Adventures in Mis-Seeding.