Sunday, March 16, 2008

Selection Sunday

4.54 pm
Due to one of the most improbably tournament championship runs I have ever witness, the Georgia Bulldogs just knocked someone out of the bracket. In my bracket (and the SCKySSiP's), that someone was the Oregon Ducks.

TBB's Final Bracket Projection

SCKySSiP Mock Committee's Final Projection

Final Lockbox

Complete OSS

I figure that there are 8 Bubble slots, and I would divide the Bubble into two tiers.

Tier 1: Kansas State, Baylor, Arizona, Saint Joseph's
Any of those four COULD miss, but I'd be pretty surprised.

Tier 2: Kentucky, South Alabama, Illinois State, Oregon
Personally, I think South Alabama is IN. But, I'm prepared for them to miss for a number of reasons (Sun Belt, no committee representation, reps from Pac 10 and Big 10, etc). So, even though USA was ahead of Zona on my S-curve, I'd be more surprised if the committee excluded Zona than I would if they excluded USA.

OK, enough. It's bracket time.

3.32 pm
OK. I've made my decision. Here is my final bracket, although the contingencies are still highlighted. I'll adjust them after the scores go final. Lockbox is updated, too.

I may be sorry for leaving Ohio State OUT, since their AD is on the committee, but Oregon simply has a better profile. So, the Buckeyes are out and the Ducks are in. I had to leave Arizona State behind, too, based on their garish #293 non-conf SOS and their #83 RPI. They would have the lowest RPI to EVER receive an AL bid if they get one. I simply do not think their overall profile is good enough to offset these considerable weaknesses.

Of course, if Georgia holds on, none of this matters and the Ducks will be OUT as well. I GUARANTEE you that Kentucky is pulling hard for The Ark. I know that "conferences do not get bids," but it sure would be convenient to simply plug UGA into Kentucky's slot.

Onto the breakdown:

Last Four IN: Kentucky, Arizona, Illinois State, Oregon

Just Missed: Ohio State, Arizona State, Virginia Tech, VCU, UMass, Dayton, Mississippi, Stephen F. Austin (in roughly that order)

Here is our mock committee's bracket. I value this process GREATLY, and my projection closely matches this one with a few seeding adjustments. This committee voted teams in during a REPLICATION of the process, NOT a guess at what the committee will do. We did what the actual committee does as best we can.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): Georgetown, Louisville, UConn, Notre Dame, Marquette, Pitt, West Virginia, Villanova
Big XII (6): Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Southern Cal, Arizona, Oregon
SEC (5): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Kentucky
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami-FL
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Saint Joseph's, Temple
West Coast (3): San Diego, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Missouri Valley (2): Drake, Illinois State
Sun Belt (2): WKU, South Alabama
Mountain West (2): BYU, UNLV

2.30 pm
OSS is complete, save the three games currently in progress.

Lockbox have been updated as well. I'm not 100% set on this field, but it's where I stand now. I'm really struggling with Ohio State, Oregon, and Arizona State for the last slot. I fear for South Alabama, Illinois State, Villanova, and Kentucky's slots as well, but I feel pretty good about having those teams IN.

I'm hoping Georgia or Illinois can win and end the misery of picking from those three.

I am working on the final update now, and it will come before the Selection Show. I will also put the SCKySSiP's results up, too.