Friday, March 10, 2006

SCKySSiP/A-10 Angst/Bracket

The South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project: The Sequel (overly elaborate name used for effect) is now in motion. Basically, this is a mock selection committee comprised of seven members that will replicate the NCAA selection process to the best of our ability. I will give periodic updates on our activities between now and Sunday.

Personally, I thought the actual 2005 NCAA Selection Committee did a pretty good job. I liked Buffalo over UAB, but it was not a travesty…unless you are a Bulls fan.

Last year, the SKySSiP did quite well. Here were the results:

2005 SKySSiP
64/65 teams selected correctly
59/65 within one seed line
34 teams seeded exactly
2 teams missed by more than 2 seed lines

The SCKySSP did about as well as anyone else out there. We got 64 correct and also seeded 59 within one seed line, although we did miss two teams (Vermont and Pitt) by 3 seed lines. Overall, we held our own with the experts. Stewart Mandel from SI got all 65 right. Most impressive.

I will post the results of our labor on Sunday afternoon before the bracket comes out. I will also post my personal projection.

II. Top Four Seeds Lose in A-10
GW, Charlotte, LaSalle, and St. Louis all lost in the A-10 Quarterfinals yesterday. That means that the Bubble popped for someone. Michigan and Florida State both are certainly feeling the squeeze as they lose 1st round games to lower seeded teams yesterday. Air Force's chances are now slumbering in a long dirt nap after losing to Wyoming last night. BYU is officially dead after losing to Utah.

III. The One Stop Shop has been updated through tonight's games that have ended by 11.30 PM CT.

IV. Today's bracket is up.

--Yesterday's carnage caused some change near the bottom. Florida State and Michigan are now OUT. I moved in Creighton and Hofstra. Why?

--FSU: one win over Duke does not a tourney team make.

--Michigan: 3-7 in their last ten (2-7 in their last nine) and a first round conference tourney flameout. I just cannot see the committee overlooking those sins. Maybe I'll change my mind when the full picture is set on Saturday night, but I do not like the Wolverines' chances.

--George Washington fell to a 5-seed, and I once again mixed and matched the 8/9/10 seeds. Those teams look close to me.

--Creighton, Hofstra, Michigan, Florida State, Seton Hall, Maryland, and George Mason were grappling for the final two slots today. The first two made it and the last five were close.

IV. Today/Tonight's GOI
--Patriot Final: Bucknell vs Holy Cross.
Bubble nation cheers for the Bison.
--ACC Quarterfinals
--A10 Semifinals
--Big XII Quarterfinals
--Big East Semifinals
--Big 10 Quarterfinals
--Big West Semifinals
--CUSA Semifinals
--MAC Semifinals
--Mid-Eastern Semifinals
--Mountain West Semifinals
--Pac-10 Semifinals
--SEC Quarterfinals
--SWAC Semifinals
--WAC Semifinals