Here is TBB's final projection. This is my best guess at what the committee will do. It's VERY tough at the bottom. To me, the last slot was betwee Purdue and Missouri State. After last season, I think Purdue gets the edge because the Big 10 has representation on the committee and the Valley does not. That is not to say the committee is "dirty," but they merely have someone to tell them all the ins and outs of Purdue. The Bears do not have anyone like that on the committee.
There are several slots that are tenuous: Drexel, ODU, Purdue and/or Illinois could easily be bumped by Florida State, Stanford, Missouri State, Arkansas, Air Force, or possibly even West Virginia or Kansas State, though I think those last two are doubtful.
The SCKySSiP bracket is up for viewing as well. I did not have a lot of time to scour this one for matchup problems, so please forgive me if there is a violation or two. This was a replication of the selection process using the NCAA selection criteria--NOT A GUESS at what the committee will do. That is what my projection is.
We'll know all in 15 mins!
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Merry Selection Sunday!
The OSS is updated through last night's games.
As of this morning, here is how the Lockbox stands. I have Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Drexel, Xavier, Illinois and Missouri State IN, while Purdue, Florida State, Arkansas and Stanford just missed. I think those teams are really close. I may change my mind as I ponder this group again later today. Arkansas and NC State are playing for automatic bids and could knock someone off the bracket today.
The SCKySSiP completed its work at about 11 pm last night. I will post our results and my final personal projection later this afternoon before the Selection Show.
Happy Holiday. More coming later.
As of this morning, here is how the Lockbox stands. I have Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Drexel, Xavier, Illinois and Missouri State IN, while Purdue, Florida State, Arkansas and Stanford just missed. I think those teams are really close. I may change my mind as I ponder this group again later today. Arkansas and NC State are playing for automatic bids and could knock someone off the bracket today.
The SCKySSiP completed its work at about 11 pm last night. I will post our results and my final personal projection later this afternoon before the Selection Show.
Happy Holiday. More coming later.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Bracket, Lockbox, OSS Updates
Lots of updates.
The One Stop Shop is updated through last night's games.
The Lockbox is up as well. I downgraded Texas Tech to Bubble IN due to their ugly loss yesterday and the fact that the available AL slots shrank by two due to Nevada and Xavier's losses yesterday. I also downgraded Syracuse from "near lock" to "projected in" simply because there are fewer spaces available.
I have both Nevada and Xavier still IN today's bracket. That cost Florida State and Stanford their slots from yesterday. Likely, it cost Purdue and Kansas State being in today. Those teams are charging hard as is Arkansas from the SEC. Mississippi State and Mississippi are making things interesting as well.
So, of the Bubble Boys, I took Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Old Dominion, Illinois, Drexel, and Missouri State in that order. Next in line were Purdue, Kansas State, Stanford, Air Force, Arkansas, and Florida State. The Mississippi schools can get into the mix with wins today.
The SCKySSiP will be working hard all day today. The fruits of our labor will be posted early tomorrow afternoon along with the final Lockbox and my personal bracket projection.
I'll do a late OSS update tonight if it's not ridiculously late when our mock committee finishes its work.
Enjoy the day!
The One Stop Shop is updated through last night's games.
The Lockbox is up as well. I downgraded Texas Tech to Bubble IN due to their ugly loss yesterday and the fact that the available AL slots shrank by two due to Nevada and Xavier's losses yesterday. I also downgraded Syracuse from "near lock" to "projected in" simply because there are fewer spaces available.
I have both Nevada and Xavier still IN today's bracket. That cost Florida State and Stanford their slots from yesterday. Likely, it cost Purdue and Kansas State being in today. Those teams are charging hard as is Arkansas from the SEC. Mississippi State and Mississippi are making things interesting as well.
So, of the Bubble Boys, I took Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Old Dominion, Illinois, Drexel, and Missouri State in that order. Next in line were Purdue, Kansas State, Stanford, Air Force, Arkansas, and Florida State. The Mississippi schools can get into the mix with wins today.
The SCKySSiP will be working hard all day today. The fruits of our labor will be posted early tomorrow afternoon along with the final Lockbox and my personal bracket projection.
I'll do a late OSS update tonight if it's not ridiculously late when our mock committee finishes its work.
Enjoy the day!
Friday, March 09, 2007
Bubble Boys Lament
Two Bubble Boys likely lost their spots tonight. Both Nevada and Xavier went down. Nevada is certainly IN. Xavier is a little more dicey, but is likely to going to make it. Tough news for Florida State, Drexel, Old Dominion, West Virginia and the rest.
I have a lot of irons in the fire tomorrow, but I will certainly post an updated Lockbox at some point and hopefully a tweaked bracket.
The SCKySSiP is in full effect, so we will be working nonstop from 2 pm until the wee hours tomorrow night. Full report on that project coming on Monday.
The OSS is updated through tonight's games completed at 11.11 pm.
I have a lot of irons in the fire tomorrow, but I will certainly post an updated Lockbox at some point and hopefully a tweaked bracket.
The SCKySSiP is in full effect, so we will be working nonstop from 2 pm until the wee hours tomorrow night. Full report on that project coming on Monday.
The OSS is updated through tonight's games completed at 11.11 pm.
Bracket Update 3/09
Thanks to Zach McCrite and The Big EZ Show on 1570 (Louisville) and 1600 AM (Frankfort/Lexington) at 9.45 CT (10.45 ET) for having me on today. It was fun.
After an eventful day yesterday, a couple of teams changed their status in the Lockbox. Texas Tech moved from "Bubble IN" to "Projected IN" with another win. Their season profile coupled with this strong finish has them in pretty good position.
Georgia Tech fell back onto the Bubble with a loss to Wake. The Jackets have an awful lot of quality wins, but they are 8-9 in ACC games and 1-8 on the road with an RPI of 49. That is not a profile to rest easy upon.
Amazingly, Air Force has played their way onto the Bubble. In fact, I left them OUT of today's bracket in favor of Florida State. They never reached LOCK status, and a four game losing streak including a first round conference tourney loss to Wyoming qualifies as an apocalyptic meltdown. They have to be considered a Bubble team.
Stanford and Florida State's (who is going down hard to UNC as I type) bids are in the guillotine ready to be lopped off by some still-living Bubble Boy (Arkansas, Kansas State, Purdue) that can make a run.
That moves the Bubble to seven slots, and several teams have a chance to take the bull by the horns today.
The OSS is updated through last night's games.
ATTENTION: The biggest game of the day is the Patriot League final: Bucknell at Holy Cross. Loser goes NITting and the winner will send some 4-seed into a cold sweat on Selection Sunday when they see either of these teams pop up next to their name.
After an eventful day yesterday, a couple of teams changed their status in the Lockbox. Texas Tech moved from "Bubble IN" to "Projected IN" with another win. Their season profile coupled with this strong finish has them in pretty good position.
Georgia Tech fell back onto the Bubble with a loss to Wake. The Jackets have an awful lot of quality wins, but they are 8-9 in ACC games and 1-8 on the road with an RPI of 49. That is not a profile to rest easy upon.
Amazingly, Air Force has played their way onto the Bubble. In fact, I left them OUT of today's bracket in favor of Florida State. They never reached LOCK status, and a four game losing streak including a first round conference tourney loss to Wyoming qualifies as an apocalyptic meltdown. They have to be considered a Bubble team.
Stanford and Florida State's (who is going down hard to UNC as I type) bids are in the guillotine ready to be lopped off by some still-living Bubble Boy (Arkansas, Kansas State, Purdue) that can make a run.
That moves the Bubble to seven slots, and several teams have a chance to take the bull by the horns today.
The OSS is updated through last night's games.
ATTENTION: The biggest game of the day is the Patriot League final: Bucknell at Holy Cross. Loser goes NITting and the winner will send some 4-seed into a cold sweat on Selection Sunday when they see either of these teams pop up next to their name.
Thursday, March 08, 2007
New Bracket, Lockbox, OSS
Congrats to Central Connecticut (Northeast) and Weber State (Big Sky), and welcome to the bracket.
Today's bracket has the same teams as yesterday, but with a few adjusted seeds. The Lockbox has been updated as well.
The OSS is up to date through games completed at 10.54 pm CT.
LOTS of action today.
Today's GOI
--ACC first round. Clemson/Florida State loser is OUT for good. Georgia Tech needs to beat Wake Forest to rest easy.
--A-10 quarterfinals. Xavier and especially UMass need good runs to keep AL hopes alive.
--Big 12 first round. Oklahoma State may be dead already. Texas Tech needs to avoid a loss to Colorado. Missouri needs a run to the finals for any hope.
--Big East quarterfinals. A win over Louisville would help West Virginia a great deal.
--Big Ten first round. Michigan and Illinois are in must win mode today.
--Big West second round.
--CUSA quarterfinals.
--MAC quarterfinals.
--Mountain West quarterfinals. UNLV and BYU are IN. Air Force can LOCK it up with a win today.
--Pac-10 quarterfinals. Stanford may need to beat USC to get IN. Washington needs to continue their late charge to have any hope. Everyone else is in pretty good shape, although Southern Cal might sweat a little if they lose today.
--SEC first round. Alabama must beat Kentucky. Georgia and Arkansas need deep runs.
--SWAC semifinals.
--Southland quarterfinals.
--WAC quarterfinals. New Mexico State and Utah State need to get to the finals for any hope.
Today's bracket has the same teams as yesterday, but with a few adjusted seeds. The Lockbox has been updated as well.
The OSS is up to date through games completed at 10.54 pm CT.
LOTS of action today.
Today's GOI
--ACC first round. Clemson/Florida State loser is OUT for good. Georgia Tech needs to beat Wake Forest to rest easy.
--A-10 quarterfinals. Xavier and especially UMass need good runs to keep AL hopes alive.
--Big 12 first round. Oklahoma State may be dead already. Texas Tech needs to avoid a loss to Colorado. Missouri needs a run to the finals for any hope.
--Big East quarterfinals. A win over Louisville would help West Virginia a great deal.
--Big Ten first round. Michigan and Illinois are in must win mode today.
--Big West second round.
--CUSA quarterfinals.
--MAC quarterfinals.
--Mountain West quarterfinals. UNLV and BYU are IN. Air Force can LOCK it up with a win today.
--Pac-10 quarterfinals. Stanford may need to beat USC to get IN. Washington needs to continue their late charge to have any hope. Everyone else is in pretty good shape, although Southern Cal might sweat a little if they lose today.
--SEC first round. Alabama must beat Kentucky. Georgia and Arkansas need deep runs.
--SWAC semifinals.
--Southland quarterfinals.
--WAC quarterfinals. New Mexico State and Utah State need to get to the finals for any hope.
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
More Tix and Big Day Ahead
Congrats to North Texas (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Mid-Con), and Wright State (Horizon)! All Bubble Boys moaned in unison when Wright State took down Butler. That's one less slot that is available for them.
The OSS is updated through today's games as of 11.15 pm (CT).
The bracket and Lockbox have been updated as well.
BIG, BIG day today in conference tourney world.
Today's GOI
Tickets, please:
--at (1) Weber State (Big Sky) 88, (2) Northern Arizona 80. Another regular season champ wins their tourney.
--at (1) Central Conn St 74 , (2) Sacred Heart 70 (Northeast). And yet ANOTHER.
Other tourney action:
--Atlantic 10 first round.
--Big East first round. Villanova/DePaul is huge. Nova is likely IN, but this is a must win for DePaul. The loser of Providence/West Virginia is toast as well. Marquette needs to take care of St. John's for any hopes of a decent seed.
--Big West first round.
--CUSA first round.
--MAC first round.
--MEAC 6/11 first round game, and two quarterfinal games.
--Pac-10 first round. Washington needs a deep, deep run to have any hope.
--SWAC quarterfinals (two of four).
The OSS is updated through today's games as of 11.15 pm (CT).
The bracket and Lockbox have been updated as well.
BIG, BIG day today in conference tourney world.
Today's GOI
Tickets, please:
--at (1) Weber State (Big Sky) 88, (2) Northern Arizona 80. Another regular season champ wins their tourney.
--at (1) Central Conn St 74 , (2) Sacred Heart 70 (Northeast). And yet ANOTHER.
Other tourney action:
--Atlantic 10 first round.
--Big East first round. Villanova/DePaul is huge. Nova is likely IN, but this is a must win for DePaul. The loser of Providence/West Virginia is toast as well. Marquette needs to take care of St. John's for any hopes of a decent seed.
--Big West first round.
--CUSA first round.
--MAC first round.
--MEAC 6/11 first round game, and two quarterfinal games.
--Pac-10 first round. Washington needs a deep, deep run to have any hope.
--SWAC quarterfinals (two of four).
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
SCKySSiP III
The South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (preposterously long title used for dramatic effect) is in it's third year this year. I have posted on this before, but here is the skinny.
Eight folks here in Kentucky are replicating the selection process as closely as possible. While we are not sequestered in a hotel together this week, we are following the NCAA selection criteria with votes by email all week. Then, on Saturday, six of our eight members will meet in person from 2 pm to midnight-ish to make final selections, seed, and place teams into the bracket.
So, while my personal bracket projection will still be on this site, also watch for SCKySSiP updates. My projections are a best guess at what the committee will do. The SCKySSiP is a replication of the actual process. There is a big difference.
I have updated the Lockbox to reflect conference tourney winners.
Tonight's GOI (see the OSS for times)
Bids on the line!
--(2) Butler at (1) Wright State (Horizon). Will the Horizon get one bid or two?
--(2) Oakland at (1) Oral Roberts (Mid-Con). Certainly the two best teams this league has had to offer all season long.
--(5) North Texas vs (2) Arkansas State (Sun Belt). This game is as unpredictable as this topsy-turvy league has been all season long.
Other tourney games
--Big Sky semifinals.
--Mid-Eastern first round.
--Mountain West 8/9 game.
--WAC 8/9 game.
Eight folks here in Kentucky are replicating the selection process as closely as possible. While we are not sequestered in a hotel together this week, we are following the NCAA selection criteria with votes by email all week. Then, on Saturday, six of our eight members will meet in person from 2 pm to midnight-ish to make final selections, seed, and place teams into the bracket.
So, while my personal bracket projection will still be on this site, also watch for SCKySSiP updates. My projections are a best guess at what the committee will do. The SCKySSiP is a replication of the actual process. There is a big difference.
I have updated the Lockbox to reflect conference tourney winners.
Tonight's GOI (see the OSS for times)
Bids on the line!
--(2) Butler at (1) Wright State (Horizon). Will the Horizon get one bid or two?
--(2) Oakland at (1) Oral Roberts (Mid-Con). Certainly the two best teams this league has had to offer all season long.
--(5) North Texas vs (2) Arkansas State (Sun Belt). This game is as unpredictable as this topsy-turvy league has been all season long.
Other tourney games
--Big Sky semifinals.
--Mid-Eastern first round.
--Mountain West 8/9 game.
--WAC 8/9 game.
Monday, March 05, 2007
Late Night OSS Update
The OSS is updated through tonight's games. Congrats to VCU (Colonial), Niagara (MAAC), and Gonzaga (West Coast) for punching their tix.
More on the SCKySSiP tomorrow. Have no clue what that is? It's OK. It's simply my favorite sports animal of the whole year.
More on the SCKySSiP tomorrow. Have no clue what that is? It's OK. It's simply my favorite sports animal of the whole year.
Bracket/Lockbox/OSS Updates
I hope you tuned in at 11.05 CST (12.05 EST) to hear me gab with Zach McCrite about the bracket. It was on 1570 (Louisville) and 1600 AM (Frankfort/Lexington). Thanks to Big EZ for having me on.
The OSS now has all 31 conference tourney brackets up to date. I think there may still be some clean up to do on game times, so I'll work on that later.
The Lockbox has been updated. I will post a bracket update later today at some point.
Today's bracket is ready to go as well. I think the Bubble is currently at six slots. Stanford has to be considered a Bubble Boy now, because they are not favored in their first tourney game, and another loss would make the Cardinal 4-6 in their last ten with an RPI in the 50s or maybe even 60s. That is a sweaty situation. A win over Southern Cal probably puts them IN.
Of the six Bubble slots, I think Texas Tech is in the best shape. If they beat lowly Colorado in the 5/12 game of the Big XII tourney, they are probably OK...but they might want to win two just in case. The other five Bubble Boys IN were Stanford, Old Dominion, Illinois, Missouri State, and Drexel. The last four are especially dicey. Illinois has to beat Penn State in the 6/11 Big 10 tourney game and may need to beat Indiana. Old Dominion, Missouri State, and Drexel have a lot of sleepless nights ahead of them this week. This group will certainly be pulling for teams like Butler and VCU to take care of business this week.
The teams that just missed were Purdue, West Virginia, DePaul, Clemson, Florida State, Kansas State, and Alabama. More fringe-y teams included UMass, Appalachian State, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Mississippi. They are few others that are not dead, but will need massive runs in their conference tourneys.
Tonight's GOI (see The OSS for times)
Three bids on the line tonight!
--(6) George Mason at (1) VCU (Colonial). Home game for Rams will make it tough for an NCAA return by the Partiots.
--(4) Siena vs (2) Niagara (Metro-Atlantic). Marist was getting most of the pub, but these two have been on FIRE in their last ten games (Siena 9-1, Niagara 10-0).
--(2) Santa Clara vs (1) Gonzaga (West Coast). Zags probably do not have enough juice for an AL bid, so they find themselves in a must-win game. These are the two best teams in WCC, so this is a fitting end.
Other tourney action:
Mid-Continent Semifinals
--UMKC vs Oakland
--IUPUI at Oral Roberts
Sun Belt Semifinals
--Western Kentucky vs Arkansas State
--Middle Tennessee vs North Texas
The OSS now has all 31 conference tourney brackets up to date. I think there may still be some clean up to do on game times, so I'll work on that later.
The Lockbox has been updated. I will post a bracket update later today at some point.
Today's bracket is ready to go as well. I think the Bubble is currently at six slots. Stanford has to be considered a Bubble Boy now, because they are not favored in their first tourney game, and another loss would make the Cardinal 4-6 in their last ten with an RPI in the 50s or maybe even 60s. That is a sweaty situation. A win over Southern Cal probably puts them IN.
Of the six Bubble slots, I think Texas Tech is in the best shape. If they beat lowly Colorado in the 5/12 game of the Big XII tourney, they are probably OK...but they might want to win two just in case. The other five Bubble Boys IN were Stanford, Old Dominion, Illinois, Missouri State, and Drexel. The last four are especially dicey. Illinois has to beat Penn State in the 6/11 Big 10 tourney game and may need to beat Indiana. Old Dominion, Missouri State, and Drexel have a lot of sleepless nights ahead of them this week. This group will certainly be pulling for teams like Butler and VCU to take care of business this week.
The teams that just missed were Purdue, West Virginia, DePaul, Clemson, Florida State, Kansas State, and Alabama. More fringe-y teams included UMass, Appalachian State, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Mississippi. They are few others that are not dead, but will need massive runs in their conference tourneys.
Tonight's GOI (see The OSS for times)
Three bids on the line tonight!
--(6) George Mason at (1) VCU (Colonial). Home game for Rams will make it tough for an NCAA return by the Partiots.
--(4) Siena vs (2) Niagara (Metro-Atlantic). Marist was getting most of the pub, but these two have been on FIRE in their last ten games (Siena 9-1, Niagara 10-0).
--(2) Santa Clara vs (1) Gonzaga (West Coast). Zags probably do not have enough juice for an AL bid, so they find themselves in a must-win game. These are the two best teams in WCC, so this is a fitting end.
Other tourney action:
Mid-Continent Semifinals
--UMKC vs Oakland
--IUPUI at Oral Roberts
Sun Belt Semifinals
--Western Kentucky vs Arkansas State
--Middle Tennessee vs North Texas
Sunday, March 04, 2007
Creighton Punches Ticket
Congrats to the Jays from the MVC. They will not have to sweat on SelSun.
The One Stop Shop is updated through games completed today at 10 pm.
Full update tomorrow with complete tourney brackets for all conferences, a bracket update, and a Lockbox update. It's getting crowded in there.
The One Stop Shop is updated through games completed today at 10 pm.
Full update tomorrow with complete tourney brackets for all conferences, a bracket update, and a Lockbox update. It's getting crowded in there.
Saturday, March 03, 2007
One Stop Update
The OSS is updated through tonight's games as of 11.30 pm.
Congrats to Penn (Ivy), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Winthrop (Big South), and Davidson (Southern). Their bids are in the mail due to conference tourney championships (or in Penn's case, the regular season Ivy crown).
More coming tomorrow.
Congrats to Penn (Ivy), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Winthrop (Big South), and Davidson (Southern). Their bids are in the mail due to conference tourney championships (or in Penn's case, the regular season Ivy crown).
More coming tomorrow.
Friday, March 02, 2007
One Stop/Bracket Updates
One Stop Shop is updated through last night's games.
Also, today's bracket contains the same 65 teams as Wednesday's, but the seeds have shifted a bit.
I'll do my best to update the OSS a few times this weekend as games are completed, but I will be traveling, so I could get behind a bit.
Enjoy a weekend of very important hoops.
Last Night's GOI
--at Georgia Tech 84, North Carolina 77. This one goes a long way for GT. A win over BC on Sunday would likely do the trick. Heels' 1-seed hopes are fading a bit.
--at Utah State 79, Nevada 77. Now, Aggies need a deep run in the WAC Tourney to make it interesting.
--at Virginia 69, Virginia Tech 56. Cavs can lock up the ACC regular season title with a win at Wake this weekend.
--at Washington 85, Southern Cal 70. USC missed their chance to LOCK it up.
--UCLA 53, at Washington State 45. Ladies and gents, your 2007 Pac-10 regular season champs.
See the OSS for these tourney game results:
--Atlantic Sun quarterfinals.
--Big South semifinals.
--Missouri Valley first round.
--Northeast quarterfinals.
--Southern quarterfinals.
Weekend Forecast
Tonight's Tourney Action (see the OSS)
--America East first round.
--Atlantic Sun semifinals.
--Colonial quarterfinals.
--Horizon second round.
--Metro-Atlantic first round.
--Missouri Valley quarterfinals. Creighton and Missouri State both need to cash in their first round games to ensure "good Bubble" status.
--Ohio Valley semifinals.
--Southern semifinals.
--West Coast first round.
Saturday
--Oklahoma State at Baylor. Must win for Cowboys.
--Tennessee at Georgia. Dawgs are all but dead; Vols need a road win to help seeding.
--Illinois at Iowa. Illini cannot afford to gamble with a loss.
--Texas Tech at Iowa State. Tech is in the same boat as Illinois--hanging onto the bottom of the bracket.
--Oklahoma at Kansas State. K-State is nearing must win territory if they are not there already.
--Pittsburgh at Marquette. Gold/Warriors/Eagles seed is in freefall.
--Ohio State at Michigan. Big chance for the Wolverines to make one final push.
--Auburn at Mississippi. It seems everyone is just trying to get to .500 in the SEC West.
--New Mexico State at Nevada. Aggies are a real long shot, but a win here would keep the door ajar.
--Arizona at Stanford. Cardinal could use a big win to boost them to a sweat-free SelSun.
--Missouri at Texas A&M. Tigers would have to win this one and make a Big XII Tourney run.
--Fresno State at Utah State. Aggies need to win a few in a row to get a serious look.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Both in decent shape, but the winner of this one likely will not sweat on SelSun.
--Michigan State at Wisconsin. Wisconsin can strengthen its grip on a 1-seed; Sparty can likely stay above the 8/9 game with a win here.
Tournament Action
--America East quarterfinals.
--Big Sky first round.
--Big South Championship. VMI at Winthrop.
--Colonial quarterfinals.
--Horizon semifinals.
--Metro Atlantic quarterfinals.
--Mid-Continent first round.
--West Coast second round.
Sunday
--Kentucky at Florida. Neither playing up to par.
--Boston College at Georgia Tech. This would LOCK it up for GT.
--Alabama at Mississippi State. Probably a must-win for 'Bama.
--Duke at North Carolina. UNC needs it for any 1-seed hopes.
--Clemson at Virginia Tech. Now or never for Tigers.
Tournament Action
--Mid-Continent first round.
--Northeast semifinals.
--Patriot semifinals.
--Sun Belt quarterfinals.
--West Coast semifinals.
Also, today's bracket contains the same 65 teams as Wednesday's, but the seeds have shifted a bit.
I'll do my best to update the OSS a few times this weekend as games are completed, but I will be traveling, so I could get behind a bit.
Enjoy a weekend of very important hoops.
Last Night's GOI
--at Georgia Tech 84, North Carolina 77. This one goes a long way for GT. A win over BC on Sunday would likely do the trick. Heels' 1-seed hopes are fading a bit.
--at Utah State 79, Nevada 77. Now, Aggies need a deep run in the WAC Tourney to make it interesting.
--at Virginia 69, Virginia Tech 56. Cavs can lock up the ACC regular season title with a win at Wake this weekend.
--at Washington 85, Southern Cal 70. USC missed their chance to LOCK it up.
--UCLA 53, at Washington State 45. Ladies and gents, your 2007 Pac-10 regular season champs.
See the OSS for these tourney game results:
--Atlantic Sun quarterfinals.
--Big South semifinals.
--Missouri Valley first round.
--Northeast quarterfinals.
--Southern quarterfinals.
Weekend Forecast
Tonight's Tourney Action (see the OSS)
--America East first round.
--Atlantic Sun semifinals.
--Colonial quarterfinals.
--Horizon second round.
--Metro-Atlantic first round.
--Missouri Valley quarterfinals. Creighton and Missouri State both need to cash in their first round games to ensure "good Bubble" status.
--Ohio Valley semifinals.
--Southern semifinals.
--West Coast first round.
Saturday
--Oklahoma State at Baylor. Must win for Cowboys.
--Tennessee at Georgia. Dawgs are all but dead; Vols need a road win to help seeding.
--Illinois at Iowa. Illini cannot afford to gamble with a loss.
--Texas Tech at Iowa State. Tech is in the same boat as Illinois--hanging onto the bottom of the bracket.
--Oklahoma at Kansas State. K-State is nearing must win territory if they are not there already.
--Pittsburgh at Marquette. Gold/Warriors/Eagles seed is in freefall.
--Ohio State at Michigan. Big chance for the Wolverines to make one final push.
--Auburn at Mississippi. It seems everyone is just trying to get to .500 in the SEC West.
--New Mexico State at Nevada. Aggies are a real long shot, but a win here would keep the door ajar.
--Arizona at Stanford. Cardinal could use a big win to boost them to a sweat-free SelSun.
--Missouri at Texas A&M. Tigers would have to win this one and make a Big XII Tourney run.
--Fresno State at Utah State. Aggies need to win a few in a row to get a serious look.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Both in decent shape, but the winner of this one likely will not sweat on SelSun.
--Michigan State at Wisconsin. Wisconsin can strengthen its grip on a 1-seed; Sparty can likely stay above the 8/9 game with a win here.
Tournament Action
--America East quarterfinals.
--Big Sky first round.
--Big South Championship. VMI at Winthrop.
--Colonial quarterfinals.
--Horizon semifinals.
--Metro Atlantic quarterfinals.
--Mid-Continent first round.
--West Coast second round.
Sunday
--Kentucky at Florida. Neither playing up to par.
--Boston College at Georgia Tech. This would LOCK it up for GT.
--Alabama at Mississippi State. Probably a must-win for 'Bama.
--Duke at North Carolina. UNC needs it for any 1-seed hopes.
--Clemson at Virginia Tech. Now or never for Tigers.
Tournament Action
--Mid-Continent first round.
--Northeast semifinals.
--Patriot semifinals.
--Sun Belt quarterfinals.
--West Coast semifinals.
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Playing Favorites
The chalk is holding up well early on this postseason. So far, teams with higher seed lines in conference tournaments are 18-5. Plus, three of those upsets were in two 4/5 games and an 8/9 game. I am sure there will be some big shakeups at some point, but it is not happening just yet.
Also, Kentucky, Indiana, and Maryland have done enough. I LOCKED them into the Lockbox.
See all the tourney action in the One Stop Shop.
Last Night's GOI
--at Alabama 69, Mississippi 58. Bama gets a must win. Rebs are hurtin' at this point.
--at Arkansas 67, Mississippi State 58. Both these teams are pretty far away.
--Villanova 78, at UConn 74. Nova can rest fairly easy now.
--Maryland 85, at Duke 77. The Terps were considered an NIT team not long ago, and now are battling for a protected seed.
--at Kentucky 82, Georgia 70. This LOCKS Kentucky and puts Georgia behind the 8-ball, especially with the injury of Mike Mercer and suspension of Levi Stukes.
--at Penn State 74, Iowa 72. Big Ten Tourney or bust for Hawkeyes.
--Vanderbilt 99, at South Carolina 90 (OT). It was not easy, but Vandy stays in the hunt for a protected seed.
--at Texas 98, Texas A&M 96 (2OT). Puts 'Horns in the mix for a protected seed.
See the OSS for these tourney game results:
--Patriot first round.
--Southern first round.
--Sun Belt first round.
Tonight's GOI
--North Carolina at Georgia Tech. Jackets are very tough at home. This would greatly strengthen UNC's 1-seed hopes.
--Nevada at Utah State. Aggies must win to keep slim AL hopes alive.
--Virginia Tech at Virginia. In-state rivalry alert with major seeding consequences.
--Southern Cal at Washington. USC needs this to vie for a protected seed.
--UCLA at Washington State. UCLA can lock up the Pac-10 regular season title with a win.
See the OSS for these tourney game times and matchups:
--Atlantic Sun quarterfinals.
--Big South semifinals.
--Missouri Valley first round.
--Northeast quarterfinals.
--Southern quarterfinals.
Also, Kentucky, Indiana, and Maryland have done enough. I LOCKED them into the Lockbox.
See all the tourney action in the One Stop Shop.
Last Night's GOI
--at Alabama 69, Mississippi 58. Bama gets a must win. Rebs are hurtin' at this point.
--at Arkansas 67, Mississippi State 58. Both these teams are pretty far away.
--Villanova 78, at UConn 74. Nova can rest fairly easy now.
--Maryland 85, at Duke 77. The Terps were considered an NIT team not long ago, and now are battling for a protected seed.
--at Kentucky 82, Georgia 70. This LOCKS Kentucky and puts Georgia behind the 8-ball, especially with the injury of Mike Mercer and suspension of Levi Stukes.
--at Penn State 74, Iowa 72. Big Ten Tourney or bust for Hawkeyes.
--Vanderbilt 99, at South Carolina 90 (OT). It was not easy, but Vandy stays in the hunt for a protected seed.
--at Texas 98, Texas A&M 96 (2OT). Puts 'Horns in the mix for a protected seed.
See the OSS for these tourney game results:
--Patriot first round.
--Southern first round.
--Sun Belt first round.
Tonight's GOI
--North Carolina at Georgia Tech. Jackets are very tough at home. This would greatly strengthen UNC's 1-seed hopes.
--Nevada at Utah State. Aggies must win to keep slim AL hopes alive.
--Virginia Tech at Virginia. In-state rivalry alert with major seeding consequences.
--Southern Cal at Washington. USC needs this to vie for a protected seed.
--UCLA at Washington State. UCLA can lock up the Pac-10 regular season title with a win.
See the OSS for these tourney game times and matchups:
--Atlantic Sun quarterfinals.
--Big South semifinals.
--Missouri Valley first round.
--Northeast quarterfinals.
--Southern quarterfinals.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Conference Tourneys Underway!
The One Stop Stop is updated through last night's tourney games. I also upgraded Tennessee to a LOCK in the Lockbox.
Today's bracket is up as well. A close evaluation of Purdue and Drexel led me to choose Drexel as my last team in today. Syracuse is in for the first time in a long while. They were among the last teams in along with Missouri State, Georgia Tech, and the aforementioned Drexel. Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas State, Michigan, Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma State were all close. Drexel is going to be an interesting case to watch, especially if they go deep in the CAA Tourney.
Conference tourney action in the Sun Belt, Patriot, and Southern begins tonight. Enjoy!
Last Night's GOI
--BYU 62, at Air Force 58. AFA is limping to the wire. BYU is in great shape now.
--at Michigan 67, Michigan State 56. Wolverines answer the bell and stay on the Bubble.
--at Oklahoma State 84, Kansas State 70. Cowboys got a desperately needed win to stay in the picture. K-State is now 3-4 in their last seven.
--at Pittsburgh 80, West Virginia 66. It's slipping away for WVU. They are going to need a Big East Tourney run.
--at Tennessee 86, Florida 76. One seeds do not trail 60-36 to anyone this late in the season. Florida may need to win the SEC Tourney to capture a 1-seed.
See the OSS for these tourney game results:
--Big South first round.
--Horizon first round.
--Ohio Valley first round.
Tonight's GOI
--Mississippi at Alabama. Both are nearing must-win territory.
--Mississippi State at Arkansas. See above.
--Villanova at UConn. Nova is likely a tourney team, but they need to ensure a .500 conference record.
--Maryland at Duke. Strictly for ACC and NCAA seeding purposes. These teams are IN.
--Georgia at Kentucky. Monumental game for UGA. Kentucky needs to right the ship after a 1-4 stretch.
--Iowa at Penn State. Hawkeyes razor-thin chances cannot afford this kind of setback.
--Vanderbilt at South Carolina. 'Dores beware; Gamecocks have beaten Mississippi and Tennessee in their last two home games.
--Texas A&M at Texas. For positioning and bragging rights.
See the OSS for these tourney game times and matchups:
--Patriot first round.
--Southern first round.
--Sun Belt first round.
Today's bracket is up as well. A close evaluation of Purdue and Drexel led me to choose Drexel as my last team in today. Syracuse is in for the first time in a long while. They were among the last teams in along with Missouri State, Georgia Tech, and the aforementioned Drexel. Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas State, Michigan, Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma State were all close. Drexel is going to be an interesting case to watch, especially if they go deep in the CAA Tourney.
Conference tourney action in the Sun Belt, Patriot, and Southern begins tonight. Enjoy!
Last Night's GOI
--BYU 62, at Air Force 58. AFA is limping to the wire. BYU is in great shape now.
--at Michigan 67, Michigan State 56. Wolverines answer the bell and stay on the Bubble.
--at Oklahoma State 84, Kansas State 70. Cowboys got a desperately needed win to stay in the picture. K-State is now 3-4 in their last seven.
--at Pittsburgh 80, West Virginia 66. It's slipping away for WVU. They are going to need a Big East Tourney run.
--at Tennessee 86, Florida 76. One seeds do not trail 60-36 to anyone this late in the season. Florida may need to win the SEC Tourney to capture a 1-seed.
See the OSS for these tourney game results:
--Big South first round.
--Horizon first round.
--Ohio Valley first round.
Tonight's GOI
--Mississippi at Alabama. Both are nearing must-win territory.
--Mississippi State at Arkansas. See above.
--Villanova at UConn. Nova is likely a tourney team, but they need to ensure a .500 conference record.
--Maryland at Duke. Strictly for ACC and NCAA seeding purposes. These teams are IN.
--Georgia at Kentucky. Monumental game for UGA. Kentucky needs to right the ship after a 1-4 stretch.
--Iowa at Penn State. Hawkeyes razor-thin chances cannot afford this kind of setback.
--Vanderbilt at South Carolina. 'Dores beware; Gamecocks have beaten Mississippi and Tennessee in their last two home games.
--Texas A&M at Texas. For positioning and bragging rights.
See the OSS for these tourney game times and matchups:
--Patriot first round.
--Southern first round.
--Sun Belt first round.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Whole Lotta Lockin' Goin' On
Here is today's updated Lockbox. The Bubble looks to be down to about seven today.
A host of teams have locked up bids this week, as the Lockbox attests. The Bubble seems much smaller at this point, although conference tourneys always throw a wrench into things.
The ACC has six LOCKS already. That may seem crazy, but none of the 10-win ACC teams will miss, and Duke and Maryland have finished so well that even losing their last three would not keep them out.
I moved Syracuse IN and Drexel OUT after the Orange topped Georgetown last night.
There are lots more updates in the One Stop Shop as well. Enjoy the start of conference tourney season tonight!
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--32 teams are either LOCKED (all caps BLACK font) or look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Ten of them are conference leaders. That means that 22 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Six other teams look pretty safe, but are not certain. Those teams are listed in blue. One is a conference leader, so that accounts for five more AL slots. That accounts for 27 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, seven slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.
Last Night's GOI
--at Syracuse 72, Georgetown 58. This huge win puts The Cuse on the good side of the Bubble.
--Kansas 67, at Oklahoma 65. Jayhawks survive and put pressure on Texas A&M to win at Texas on Wed.
Tonight's GOI
--BYU at Air Force. AFA must win to stay alive for Mt West crown.
--Michigan State at Michigan. In-state rivalry alert! Sparty is starting to roll, and Wolverines have to start a miraculous run right now to have any hopes.
--Kansas State at Oklahoma State. Both are likely OUT right now, but very much Bubble Boys.
--Iowa at Penn State. Hawkeyes razor-thin chances cannot afford this kind of setback.
--West Virginia at Pittsburgh. 'Eers are going to need a strong finish to get IN. A win here would go miles and miles.
--Florida at Tennessee. Gators have look lax of late. Vols are 15-0 at home.
See the OSS for these tourney game matchups and times:
--Big South first round.
--Horizon first round.
--Ohio Valley first round.
A host of teams have locked up bids this week, as the Lockbox attests. The Bubble seems much smaller at this point, although conference tourneys always throw a wrench into things.
The ACC has six LOCKS already. That may seem crazy, but none of the 10-win ACC teams will miss, and Duke and Maryland have finished so well that even losing their last three would not keep them out.
I moved Syracuse IN and Drexel OUT after the Orange topped Georgetown last night.
There are lots more updates in the One Stop Shop as well. Enjoy the start of conference tourney season tonight!
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--32 teams are either LOCKED (all caps BLACK font) or look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Ten of them are conference leaders. That means that 22 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Six other teams look pretty safe, but are not certain. Those teams are listed in blue. One is a conference leader, so that accounts for five more AL slots. That accounts for 27 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, seven slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.
Last Night's GOI
--at Syracuse 72, Georgetown 58. This huge win puts The Cuse on the good side of the Bubble.
--Kansas 67, at Oklahoma 65. Jayhawks survive and put pressure on Texas A&M to win at Texas on Wed.
Tonight's GOI
--BYU at Air Force. AFA must win to stay alive for Mt West crown.
--Michigan State at Michigan. In-state rivalry alert! Sparty is starting to roll, and Wolverines have to start a miraculous run right now to have any hopes.
--Kansas State at Oklahoma State. Both are likely OUT right now, but very much Bubble Boys.
--Iowa at Penn State. Hawkeyes razor-thin chances cannot afford this kind of setback.
--West Virginia at Pittsburgh. 'Eers are going to need a strong finish to get IN. A win here would go miles and miles.
--Florida at Tennessee. Gators have look lax of late. Vols are 15-0 at home.
See the OSS for these tourney game matchups and times:
--Big South first round.
--Horizon first round.
--Ohio Valley first round.
Monday, February 26, 2007
Two Weeks 'til Selection Sunday
The bids are going like hotcakes now that the conference season has entered it's final week. Let's stick with bracket talk today and I will have a fully updated LOCKBOX ready tomorrow and it will look quite different than any before it.
The bottom of the bracket seemed a little less confusing to me this week. The last two slots were pretty tough, though. I took Georgia Tech and Drexel over a host of contenders including Georgia, Alabama, Kansas State, West Virginia, Syracuse, and bunch of other fringe Bubble Boys. Georgia Tech will have to finish strong to stay in, and Drexel got in on the strength of an astounding THIRTEEN road wins. Plus, the Dragons have a rather robust seven Top 100 RPI wins. For comparison's sake, West Virginia has four and Kansas State has five. Georgia and Alabama have eight each, but both have been dreadful on the road and 'Bama is 6-8 in conference. Syracuse's profile is close, but the Dragon's road warrior badge of honor puts them over the top for now. They will probably need to run deep in the CAA Tourney to get ultimately get IN.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (7): North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Maryland, Boston College, Georgia Tech
Big East (6): Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Notre Dame
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington State, Southern Cal, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue
SEC (4): Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky
Big XII (4): Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech
Missouri Valley (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
Mountain West (3): UNLV, Air Force, BYU
Colonial (3): VCU, Old Dominion, Drexel
There are also a whole gaggle of updates in the One Stop Shop. There are a smattering of other teams that have locked up tourney bracket slots, but those will have to wait until tomorrow. I will also try to clean up the game times.
Conference tourney action begins tomorrow in the Big South, Horizon, and Ohio Valley!
Tonight's GOI
--Georgetown at Syracuse. The Orange finish with this one and at Villanova on Saturday. Even a split would make their resume a lot more palatable. A sweep likely gets them IN.
--Kansas at Oklahoma. Jayhawks lost to Texas A&M in their only meeting, so they must win out and hope A&M loses at Texas.
The bottom of the bracket seemed a little less confusing to me this week. The last two slots were pretty tough, though. I took Georgia Tech and Drexel over a host of contenders including Georgia, Alabama, Kansas State, West Virginia, Syracuse, and bunch of other fringe Bubble Boys. Georgia Tech will have to finish strong to stay in, and Drexel got in on the strength of an astounding THIRTEEN road wins. Plus, the Dragons have a rather robust seven Top 100 RPI wins. For comparison's sake, West Virginia has four and Kansas State has five. Georgia and Alabama have eight each, but both have been dreadful on the road and 'Bama is 6-8 in conference. Syracuse's profile is close, but the Dragon's road warrior badge of honor puts them over the top for now. They will probably need to run deep in the CAA Tourney to get ultimately get IN.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (7): North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Maryland, Boston College, Georgia Tech
Big East (6): Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Notre Dame
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington State, Southern Cal, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue
SEC (4): Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky
Big XII (4): Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech
Missouri Valley (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
Mountain West (3): UNLV, Air Force, BYU
Colonial (3): VCU, Old Dominion, Drexel
There are also a whole gaggle of updates in the One Stop Shop. There are a smattering of other teams that have locked up tourney bracket slots, but those will have to wait until tomorrow. I will also try to clean up the game times.
Conference tourney action begins tomorrow in the Big South, Horizon, and Ohio Valley!
Tonight's GOI
--Georgetown at Syracuse. The Orange finish with this one and at Villanova on Saturday. Even a split would make their resume a lot more palatable. A sweep likely gets them IN.
--Kansas at Oklahoma. Jayhawks lost to Texas A&M in their only meeting, so they must win out and hope A&M loses at Texas.
Friday, February 23, 2007
Lockbox Update/Weekend
I'm simply not going to have time for a bracket today. Work stuff coupled with my band playing a show tonight is not going to allow it.
I do have an updated Lockbox ready to go. Also, I think some other teams have LOCKED their spots:
Duke, Georgetown, Memphis
The OSS saw several teams clinch last night. The top five spots of the SoCon are set. The top three of the Mid-Con are lined up, too.
Last Night's GOI
--at Appalachian State 80,UNC-Greensboro 66. Mountaineers clinch SoCon North.
--at Clemson 71, Duke 66. Tigers are in serious trouble. Teams 2-8 in their last ten don't get into the tourney regardless of their schedule.
--at New Mexico State 76, Utah State 73. It's going to be tough for either of these clubs to get an AL bid.
--at Oregon 64, Washington State 59. Ducks answered the bell when they needed to.
--at Southern Cal 69, Stanford 65. Trojans are in a very strong position now.
Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Tennessee at Arkansas. Vols desperately need to cash in on the road.
--Clemson at Boston College. Tigers have to turn it around in short order.
--Detroit at Butler. Dogs have been less than invincible lately.
--Kansas State at Colorado. KSU has to have this one.
--Wichita State at Creighton. Jays need to stop this mini-slide.
--Xavier at Dayton. XU needs to keep working on their AL profile in case they do not win the A-10 tourney.
--NC State at Florida State. Must win for 'Noles.
--Pitt at Georgetown. HEAVY hitters of the Big East.
--Mississippi State at Georgia. MSU is a latecomer that is gaining steam.
--Indiana at Michigan State. Spartans seem to be putting it together at the right time.
--Missouri at Nebraska. Tigers are a long shot, but they are not out of it.
--Marquette at Notre Dame. Irish would be in pretty good shape with a win here.
--Syracuse at Providence. Both need this one badly to stay in the picture.
--BYU at San Diego State. Cougar win would make them extremely difficult to catch in the MWC.
--Mississippi at South Carolina. Rebels are clawing for the SEC West lead and an AL bid.
--Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. Cowboys seem to be running out of steam. TT is one of the more unpredictable teams in the land.
--Stanford at UCLA. This would lock it up for the Cardinal.
--Georgia Tech at Virginia. Jackets need it more.
Sunday
--Louisville at UConn. This would all but lock it up for the Cards.
--North Carolina at Maryland. Terps are surging and playing for seeding now.
--Wisconsin at Ohio State. Massive Big Ten title implications.
--Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Winner gets a huge leg up for E2 slot and SEC tourney bye.
I do have an updated Lockbox ready to go. Also, I think some other teams have LOCKED their spots:
Duke, Georgetown, Memphis
The OSS saw several teams clinch last night. The top five spots of the SoCon are set. The top three of the Mid-Con are lined up, too.
Last Night's GOI
--at Appalachian State 80,UNC-Greensboro 66. Mountaineers clinch SoCon North.
--at Clemson 71, Duke 66. Tigers are in serious trouble. Teams 2-8 in their last ten don't get into the tourney regardless of their schedule.
--at New Mexico State 76, Utah State 73. It's going to be tough for either of these clubs to get an AL bid.
--at Oregon 64, Washington State 59. Ducks answered the bell when they needed to.
--at Southern Cal 69, Stanford 65. Trojans are in a very strong position now.
Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Tennessee at Arkansas. Vols desperately need to cash in on the road.
--Clemson at Boston College. Tigers have to turn it around in short order.
--Detroit at Butler. Dogs have been less than invincible lately.
--Kansas State at Colorado. KSU has to have this one.
--Wichita State at Creighton. Jays need to stop this mini-slide.
--Xavier at Dayton. XU needs to keep working on their AL profile in case they do not win the A-10 tourney.
--NC State at Florida State. Must win for 'Noles.
--Pitt at Georgetown. HEAVY hitters of the Big East.
--Mississippi State at Georgia. MSU is a latecomer that is gaining steam.
--Indiana at Michigan State. Spartans seem to be putting it together at the right time.
--Missouri at Nebraska. Tigers are a long shot, but they are not out of it.
--Marquette at Notre Dame. Irish would be in pretty good shape with a win here.
--Syracuse at Providence. Both need this one badly to stay in the picture.
--BYU at San Diego State. Cougar win would make them extremely difficult to catch in the MWC.
--Mississippi at South Carolina. Rebels are clawing for the SEC West lead and an AL bid.
--Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. Cowboys seem to be running out of steam. TT is one of the more unpredictable teams in the land.
--Stanford at UCLA. This would lock it up for the Cardinal.
--Georgia Tech at Virginia. Jackets need it more.
Sunday
--Louisville at UConn. This would all but lock it up for the Cards.
--North Carolina at Maryland. Terps are surging and playing for seeding now.
--Wisconsin at Ohio State. Massive Big Ten title implications.
--Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Winner gets a huge leg up for E2 slot and SEC tourney bye.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
More Lines Filled
Today's congrats:
Florida (SEC). The Gators clinched the 1E slot in the SEC tourney.
Creighton. #2 Valley.
Missouri State. #3 Valley.
Check out the updated One Stop Shop for more updates.
Full bracket update coming tomorrow.
This blog follows the Sun Belt conference closer than any other, and the Belt regular season will be wrapped up in games tonight and on Saturday.
Tonight
UL-Lafayette (7-9) at FIU (6-10).
UALR (7-9) at New Orleans (8-8).
Arkansas State (9-7) at North Texas (9-7). Both still alive for West crown, #2 spot, and a bye in the conference tourney. ASU won the first meeting, so they can put the Mean Green behind them for good
Denver (3-14) at UL-Monroe (10-6). A UL-Monroe win assures them no worse than a coin flip for the #2 spot. They have the tie-breaker over North Texas and have split with Arkansas State. A win coupled with an ASU loss clinches the #2 bye for ULM.
Middle Tennessee (7-9) at Troy (6-10).
I will post another update tomorrow after tonight's results.
Last Night's GOI
--at Auburn 67, Arkansas 59. I'm calling this a pig roast. Ark looks well-done at this point.
--at Illinois 54, Michigan 42. Wolverines are going to need to find magic in the Big 10 tourney; Illini hold onto their AL hopes.
--at Iowa 78, Purdue 59. Purdue simply stinks on the road. Bad loss with bad timing.
--at Maryland 73, Florida State 55. 'Noles are in serious trouble. They will have a losing regular season conference record no matter what occurs. Meanwhile, the Terps are close to locking up their spot. One more win will probably do it.
--at Mississippi 67, Georgia 49. Big blow to UGA; Ole Miss is hanging in there.
--at Mississippi State 83, Vanderbilt 70. On on the outside, here come the Bulldogs! They are now tied with Ole Miss for the SEC West lead.
--Texas A&M 66, at Oklahoma State 46. When you are on the Bubble, 20-point home losses are generally a bad thing.
--at Tennessee 69, Alabama 66 (OT). Two horrible road teams...and the result held to form.
--at Virginia Tech 79, Boston College 62. Have fun figuring out what to do with VA Tech in your bracket picks.
--at Xavier 98, Rhode Island 72. It's now XU and UMass at the top of the A-10.
Tonight's GOI
--UNC-Greensboro at Appalachian State. An ASU win clinches the SoCon North.
--Duke at Clemson. Tigers are in danger. A win here would help a great deal.
--Utah State at New Mexico State. Two fringe Bubble teams--loser probably gets popped.
--Washington State at Oregon. Ducks need a win badly and they are at home. Time to see what they are made of.
--Stanford at Southern Cal. Winner all but seals their bid.
Florida (SEC). The Gators clinched the 1E slot in the SEC tourney.
Creighton. #2 Valley.
Missouri State. #3 Valley.
Check out the updated One Stop Shop for more updates.
Full bracket update coming tomorrow.
This blog follows the Sun Belt conference closer than any other, and the Belt regular season will be wrapped up in games tonight and on Saturday.
Tonight
UL-Lafayette (7-9) at FIU (6-10).
UALR (7-9) at New Orleans (8-8).
Arkansas State (9-7) at North Texas (9-7). Both still alive for West crown, #2 spot, and a bye in the conference tourney. ASU won the first meeting, so they can put the Mean Green behind them for good
Denver (3-14) at UL-Monroe (10-6). A UL-Monroe win assures them no worse than a coin flip for the #2 spot. They have the tie-breaker over North Texas and have split with Arkansas State. A win coupled with an ASU loss clinches the #2 bye for ULM.
Middle Tennessee (7-9) at Troy (6-10).
I will post another update tomorrow after tonight's results.
Last Night's GOI
--at Auburn 67, Arkansas 59. I'm calling this a pig roast. Ark looks well-done at this point.
--at Illinois 54, Michigan 42. Wolverines are going to need to find magic in the Big 10 tourney; Illini hold onto their AL hopes.
--at Iowa 78, Purdue 59. Purdue simply stinks on the road. Bad loss with bad timing.
--at Maryland 73, Florida State 55. 'Noles are in serious trouble. They will have a losing regular season conference record no matter what occurs. Meanwhile, the Terps are close to locking up their spot. One more win will probably do it.
--at Mississippi 67, Georgia 49. Big blow to UGA; Ole Miss is hanging in there.
--at Mississippi State 83, Vanderbilt 70. On on the outside, here come the Bulldogs! They are now tied with Ole Miss for the SEC West lead.
--Texas A&M 66, at Oklahoma State 46. When you are on the Bubble, 20-point home losses are generally a bad thing.
--at Tennessee 69, Alabama 66 (OT). Two horrible road teams...and the result held to form.
--at Virginia Tech 79, Boston College 62. Have fun figuring out what to do with VA Tech in your bracket picks.
--at Xavier 98, Rhode Island 72. It's now XU and UMass at the top of the A-10.
Tonight's GOI
--UNC-Greensboro at Appalachian State. An ASU win clinches the SoCon North.
--Duke at Clemson. Tigers are in danger. A win here would help a great deal.
--Utah State at New Mexico State. Two fringe Bubble teams--loser probably gets popped.
--Washington State at Oregon. Ducks need a win badly and they are at home. Time to see what they are made of.
--Stanford at Southern Cal. Winner all but seals their bid.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Bubble Stays at 11
"Nothing could be finer than being in your diner." ~Jerry, Seinfeld: "The Bubble Boy Episode"
First, congratulations to Winthrop (Big South) and Southern Illinois (Valley) for securing #1 slots in their conference tourneys. Winthrop did the trick with a come-from-behind win over High Point last night, while SIU clinched when Creighton lost at Illinois State. This and more conference tourney updates in the One Stop Shop.
We turn now to the Bubble Boys and the Lockbox. The rampant losing by some formerly high-falutin' teams is making it crowded at the bottom. Apart from OK State, Texas Tech, Clemson, and a few other formerly solidly IN teams, Tennessee and Creighton are really pushing their luck. I left the Jays as "win games they should" simply because they have one home game and the Valley Tourney left. If they beat Wichita State at home and grab a win or two in the Valley Tourney, they will likely be OK.
Tennessee has such an abysmal road record that they are in real danger if they drop a home game (Florida still to come). They might even need to take care of Arkansas or UGA on the road to feel solid. Their fat RPI and some nice wins will help buoy them as long as they get to 8-8 in the SEC. But, with Alabama coming in tonight, two road games, and Florida coming in next week, the schedule is going to be tough to navigate for the Vols. They have to be considered a Bubble Boy at this point.
Meanwhile, Drexel and Old Dominion are charging hard in the CAA. Louisville and Maryland have went from OUT to pretty solid bracket picks in the last few games. Michigan State will get serious mileage out of their win over Wisconsin last night. The Mountain West looks to be in great shape for three bids this year, too (BYU, UNLV, AFA). So, not EVERYONE is losing. It just seems that way.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--26 teams are either LOCKED (all caps BLACK font) or look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of them are conference leaders. That means that 15 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Eight other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 23 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 11 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.
Last Night's GOI
--Northern Iowa 79, at Bradley 70. Home losses at this juncture for a team like Bradley pretty much drops the curtains on an AL bid.
--at Kentucky 70, LSU 63. Cats get their win in less than impressive fashion over Big Baby-less Tigers.
--at Michigan State 64, Wisconsin 55. Drew Neitzel: Bacon-saver extraordinaire.
--at Notre Dame 78, DePaul 54. Irish move a step closer. A win at Rutgers in their last game probably wraps up their bid. But, that road record...
--at Providence 64, West Virginia 61. Friars hanging on by a thread. WVU is not home free yet.
--at Texas 80, Texas Tech 51. Raiders were ground into the pavement by a burnt orange bootheel. Bobby's boys are WILDLY inconsistent and hard to figure.
--at UNLV 60, Air Force 50. Big Rebel win also puts BYU two games clear of both of these clubs.
--Missouri State 71, at Wichita State 65. Bears got off the mat late in the game to claw out a win. Shockers are pretty much done as an AL possibility.
Tonight's GOI
--Arkansas at Auburn. Razorbacks need to pile up some wins starting RIGHT NOW.
--Michigan at Illinois. Neither team can really afford a loss at this point.
--Purdue at Iowa. Boilers would be in decent shape if they could post a road win.
--Florida State at Maryland. 'Noles have fallen off the pace with four straight losses. They have two winnable games left after this one, so a win here would be golden.
--Georgia at Mississippi. Both still alive, but Ole Miss has to hold home court. Could be a big roadie for Dawgs.
--Vanderbilt at Mississippi State. 'Dores have to beware of a letdown after Florida win.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma State. Cowboys are falling quickly and would likely fall out of the bracket with another "L".
--Alabama at Tennessee. Vols have been very tough at home, and they need a win to wash out the taste of that drubbing at South Carolina.
--Boston College at Virginia Tech. It's always fun to guess which Hokie team is going to show.
--Rhode Island at Xavier. Loser falls out of a tie for first in the A-10.
First, congratulations to Winthrop (Big South) and Southern Illinois (Valley) for securing #1 slots in their conference tourneys. Winthrop did the trick with a come-from-behind win over High Point last night, while SIU clinched when Creighton lost at Illinois State. This and more conference tourney updates in the One Stop Shop.
We turn now to the Bubble Boys and the Lockbox. The rampant losing by some formerly high-falutin' teams is making it crowded at the bottom. Apart from OK State, Texas Tech, Clemson, and a few other formerly solidly IN teams, Tennessee and Creighton are really pushing their luck. I left the Jays as "win games they should" simply because they have one home game and the Valley Tourney left. If they beat Wichita State at home and grab a win or two in the Valley Tourney, they will likely be OK.
Tennessee has such an abysmal road record that they are in real danger if they drop a home game (Florida still to come). They might even need to take care of Arkansas or UGA on the road to feel solid. Their fat RPI and some nice wins will help buoy them as long as they get to 8-8 in the SEC. But, with Alabama coming in tonight, two road games, and Florida coming in next week, the schedule is going to be tough to navigate for the Vols. They have to be considered a Bubble Boy at this point.
Meanwhile, Drexel and Old Dominion are charging hard in the CAA. Louisville and Maryland have went from OUT to pretty solid bracket picks in the last few games. Michigan State will get serious mileage out of their win over Wisconsin last night. The Mountain West looks to be in great shape for three bids this year, too (BYU, UNLV, AFA). So, not EVERYONE is losing. It just seems that way.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--26 teams are either LOCKED (all caps BLACK font) or look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of them are conference leaders. That means that 15 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Eight other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 23 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 11 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.
Last Night's GOI
--Northern Iowa 79, at Bradley 70. Home losses at this juncture for a team like Bradley pretty much drops the curtains on an AL bid.
--at Kentucky 70, LSU 63. Cats get their win in less than impressive fashion over Big Baby-less Tigers.
--at Michigan State 64, Wisconsin 55. Drew Neitzel: Bacon-saver extraordinaire.
--at Notre Dame 78, DePaul 54. Irish move a step closer. A win at Rutgers in their last game probably wraps up their bid. But, that road record...
--at Providence 64, West Virginia 61. Friars hanging on by a thread. WVU is not home free yet.
--at Texas 80, Texas Tech 51. Raiders were ground into the pavement by a burnt orange bootheel. Bobby's boys are WILDLY inconsistent and hard to figure.
--at UNLV 60, Air Force 50. Big Rebel win also puts BYU two games clear of both of these clubs.
--Missouri State 71, at Wichita State 65. Bears got off the mat late in the game to claw out a win. Shockers are pretty much done as an AL possibility.
Tonight's GOI
--Arkansas at Auburn. Razorbacks need to pile up some wins starting RIGHT NOW.
--Michigan at Illinois. Neither team can really afford a loss at this point.
--Purdue at Iowa. Boilers would be in decent shape if they could post a road win.
--Florida State at Maryland. 'Noles have fallen off the pace with four straight losses. They have two winnable games left after this one, so a win here would be golden.
--Georgia at Mississippi. Both still alive, but Ole Miss has to hold home court. Could be a big roadie for Dawgs.
--Vanderbilt at Mississippi State. 'Dores have to beware of a letdown after Florida win.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma State. Cowboys are falling quickly and would likely fall out of the bracket with another "L".
--Alabama at Tennessee. Vols have been very tough at home, and they need a win to wash out the taste of that drubbing at South Carolina.
--Boston College at Virginia Tech. It's always fun to guess which Hokie team is going to show.
--Rhode Island at Xavier. Loser falls out of a tie for first in the A-10.
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