State of the Sun Belt: Stretch Run Edition

Sprawling across the galaxy, the Sun Belt likely covers more real estate than any other conference in America. It stretches its considerable legs from Miami, FL, to Denver, CO, creating brutal travel schedules for just about everyone. For example, with the Thursday/Saturday game schedule, UL-Monroe played Arkansas State at home on on Jan 4, then had to be in Denver to play the Pioneers on Jan 6. Western Kentucky made an Arkansas State-Denver road swing with just one full day between games. Travel in this league is not for the faint of heart.

The play has been gruesome as well. The league is filled with poor defensive teams and not too many good offensive ones (WKU, USA, New Orleans, and North Texas make the cut). Belt teams are 2-31 against BCS conference teams. There are several teams that should be on the uptick next season, but that's a post for sometime in March or April.

The two best teams in the league will meet tonight in Mobile, Alabama. WKU (9-4) is coming off a loss at North Texas while South Alabama (11-2) has won 10 straight. For all intents and purposes, this game is for the East Division crown. USA can all but salt it away with a win, while WKU can pull within a game and gain a season sweep, giving them the tie-breaker if USA were to falter down the stretch. North Texas and New Orleans also face off in an important West Division matchup as well. After this weekend, most teams will have just three or four conference games left.

Here is a look at what the Belt bracket would look like as of today.

Last Night's GOI
--at Alabama 80, Mississippi State 79. Tide eke out another home win. Will ANYONE in the SEC West take the bull by the horns?
--at Arkansas 65, Auburn 57. And, here is your most likely candidate: The Ark.
--at Clemson 71, Florida State 58. Tigers get a much-needed big win.
--North Carolina 79, at Duke 73. Three ACC home losses for Duke and counting.
--Florida 71, at Georgia 61. No shame for the Dawgs, but they are right on the Bubble.
--at Kansas 97, Kansas State 70. Not a good performance by the Bubbly Wildcats.
--Georgetown 73, at Louisville 65. It simply does not look like it's in the Cards.
--Illinois 58, at Northwestern 53. Illini are quietly doing what they have to do.
--at Oklahoma 67, Oklahoma State 60. Cowboys now 0-4 in true road games.
--at Purdue 62, Michigan State 38. Spartans are spiraling downward with alarming speed.
--Bradley at SIU. Braves need a monster finish for any AL hope.
--at UCLA 70, Southern Cal 65. UCLA keeps its grip on the top of the Pac-10.
--Pittsburgh 60, at West Virginia 47. 'Eers look like a classic Bubbly Boy.
--at Xavier 76, Saint Louis 57. Xavier needs to stay near the top of the A-10 for AL hopes.

Tonight's GOI
--Notre Dame at DePaul. Irish desperately need to cash in on the road.
--Drexel at Hofstra. Good, clean, CAA fun.
--Rhode Island at UMass. Winner takes the outright lead in the A-10.
--Western Kentucky at South Alabama. The Sun Belt's best square off.
--Cal at Washington. Both need to win lots of games, so loser will take a blow.
--Stanford at Washington State. A battle for position and seeding.

Bubble Shrinks to 11

The bottom of the bracket continues to be in flux. After last night's results, I pulled Maryland's bid and gave it to Georgia Tech. I also replaced Texas Tech with Kansas State. I cannot in good conscience leave in Texas Tech, losers of four in a row, over K-State (won 7 straight) who is a full three games clear in the Big XII loss column. View the full Lockbox here.

Gonzaga's AL hopes took another blow last night at Loyola Marymount. This could be the first year in a while that the Zags need to win the WCC tourney.

Tennessee continues to be an interesting test case. Chris Lofton returned last night, but did not have a great game. The Vols still took care of LSU in Knoxville by three. UT stays in for now.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--22 teams look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of them are conference leaders. That means that 11 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--12 other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 23 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 11 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--Virginia 69, at Maryland 65. Cavs appear to be for real, and MD is now 3-6 ACC with a pretty tough skeddie remaining (Duke x2, UNC, FSU, at Clemson still left).
--at Ohio State 76, Michigan 63. Different year, same story for Amaker and Michigan.
--at Tennessee 70, LSU 67. Lofton did return and was still not himself, but it was enough to beat hapless LSU (2-7 SEC!!!).
--at Villanova 56, St. Joseph's 39. Nova looking pretty solid lately.
--BYU 77, at Wyoming 73. Don't underestimate this win for BYU. It's tough to win in Laramie.
BONUS SCORE
--at San Diego State 62, Air Force 41. Losing on the road at SDSU is not terribly surprising, but for razor-sharp AFA to lose by 21 to anybody is a bit of a shock.

Tonight's GOI
--Mississippi State at Alabama. Time for 'Bama to put up or shut up.
--Auburn at Arkansas. Same goes for the Hogs.
--Florida State at Clemson. Tigers find themselves in need of a W. Badly.
--North Carolina at Duke. Have you heard about this game?
--Drexel at Hofstra. Good, clean, CAA fun.
--Kansas State at Kansas. Wildcats looking for that win that puts them in serious bracket contention.
--Georgetown at Louisville. Cards will dedicate the Freedom Hall court to Denny Crum tonight. They need to start cashing in some big wins NOW.
--Illinois at Northwestern. Illini need ANY kind of road win.
--Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. In-state rivalry alert!
--Michigan State at Purdue. Two Big Ten Bubble Boys.
--Bradley at SIU. Braves need a monster finish for any AL hope.
--Southern Cal at UCLA. In-city rivalry alert! A USC win could create a 3-loss logjam at the top of the Pac-10.
--Pittsburgh at West Virginia. 'Eers with a golden opportunity to secure a badly needed signature win.
--Saint Louis at Xavier. Xavier has a slim margin for error for At-Large purposes.

SCKySSiP III/More TBB on WNKY

Apologies for yesterday...it seems my bracket post never made it through Blogger. You can see the bracket post below this one now.

The wheels are in motion for the 3rd installment of the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (ridiculously long name used for effect). The SCKySSiP will likely be an 8-member committee which will replicate the selection process as closely as possible. We will follow the NCAA Selection Criteria to the best of our ability. Give this a read when you have time. It helps to explain how teams get into (or are left out of) the bracket. More on this when the regular season ends.

You can now read my musings on WKU Hilltopper hoops and other sports on WNKY (a local Bowling Green TV station). I'll be writing a blog for them for the rest of the season, and hopefully beyond that. I may even try my hand at covering some Hilltopper baseball and softball later in the Spring.

Last Night's GOI
--at UConn 67, Syracuse 60. Both of these teams are going to need major runs to close the season.
--at Indiana State 59, Northern Iowa 46. Trees toss the first shovel of dirt on UNI's At-Large grave.
--at Texas A&M 100, Texas 82. A&M is driving the Big XII bus.
--at Utah State 75, New Mexico State 63. This makes an At-Large very difficult for NMSU.

Tonight's GOI
--Virginia at Maryland. The Terps have to hold serve at home to stay close to .500 in the ACC.
--Michigan at Ohio State. Amaker's club needs a monster win to restore hopes.
--LSU at Tennessee. Tennessee badly needs Chris Lofton to return.
--St. Joseph's at Villanova. In-city rivalry alert! Mmmmmm...Big Five.
--BYU at Wyoming. Careful, Cougs. Cowboys are 9-1 at home (2-point loss to AFA).

Five Weeks Until SelSun

Here's how the the bracket looks with five weeks to go. Conferences are solidifying a bit, although the ACC and SEC are still a mess. Several teams from those two will likely scrap it out until the end for a limited number of slots. Somebody has to lose those conference games and it's tough to get in with a losing conference record. Are you listening Arkansas? Georgia Tech? Maryland? LSU? Even Clemson?

There was some change at the bottom this week. I took Alabama, Illinois, Michigan State, and Georgia over teams like Kansas State, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Syracuse and New Mexico State.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Maryland
Big East (6): Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame, West Virginia
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, Stanford, Southern Cal, Arizona
SEC (6): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama
Big Ten (6): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois
Big XII (5): Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas
Missouri Valley (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
Mountain West (3): Air Force, UNLV, BYU

Tonight's GOI
--Syracuse at UConn. Two teams that have been heading in the wrong direction.
--Northern Iowa at Indiana State. Panthers probably have to have this game.
--Texas at Texas A&M. Aggies are alone in first place, but Horns can gain a tie with a win.
--New Mexico State at Utah State. NMSU has won 15 of 16, but USU is 9-0 at home.

Weekend Forecast

We have our first real snow here in south central Kentucky today (2-3"). For those of you from snowier parts of the country, three inches of snow pretty much slows things to a halt around here. This is a great weekend to watch hoops if you live in KY.

Last Night's GOI
--Washington State 72, at Arizona 66. Cougars get a golden road win.
--Old Dominion 62, at Drexel 52. Monarchs now alone in 3rd with Drexel 4th in the CAA.
--at UCLA 69, Oregon 57. Bruins hold court and earn the season split.
--at Virginia 68, Duke 66 (OT). Duke was in control for much of the game, but the Cavs were clutch late.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Washington at Arizona. The Huskies have shown signs of life and a win here ties them with Zona in the Pac-10.
--Kentucky at Arkansas. Hogs need this one more and they are at home.
--Virginia Tech at Boston College. These two are currently tied for 2nd in the ACC.
--UNLV at BYU. Cougars must cash in this golden opportunity for a quality win.
--Stanford at Cal. Cal's hopes are slim, so winning home games is imperative.
--UNC-Greensboro at Davidson. UNCG is red-hot and Davidson is a league best 10-1.
--Creighton at Drake. Avoid this land mine, and the Jays are sitting pretty with 4 of their last 6 at home.
--Northern Iowa at Evansville. UNI cannot afford a loss here.
--Tennessee at Florida. Vols are coming off a big win over UGA.
--Clemson at Georgia Tech. Home losses for 2-6 ACC teams are bad. Real bad.
--Missouri State at Indiana State. Bears must be careful on the road here.
--Indiana at Iowa. Hoosiers must beware of post-Wiscy hangover.
--Texas A&M at Kansas. Loser falls out of tie for Big XII lead.
--Loyola (MD) at Marist. Two of the better MAAC clubs.
--Ohio State at Michigan State. Quick turnaround rematch from last weekend.
--LSU at Mississippi State. LSU has to get of the mat VERY soon.
--North Carolina at NC State. In-state rivalry alert!
--Texas Tech at Oklahoma. Raiders have lost two straight.
--Oregon at Southern Cal. Two of the four 3-loss teams in the Pac-10.
--DePaul at Syracuse. Orange need wins of any sort right now.
--Kansas State at Texas. Wildcats have won 6 straight.
--Georgia at Vanderbilt. Both have been pretty hot in the SEC East. UGA was cooled down by Tennessee early in the week, however.
--Louisville at Villanova. Let's see if the Cards are for real.
--Southern Illinois at Wichita State. Shockers have been playing much better of late.

Sunday
--Florida State at Duke. An FSU wins ties them with Duke in the ACC.

Local Store: One Stop Shop

(Enter cheesy hometown grocery store jingle)
Where do you go when you need a score?
THE ONE STOP SHOP!
Where do you go for brackets and more?
THE ONE STOP SHOP!
When you're at work burning company time,
Refreshing Yahoo! game scores until you go blind,
All 30 conference tourney brackets in one place,
Will be sure to leave a goofy grin on your face!
THE ONE STOP SHOP!

Hello everyone, and welcome to the One Stop Shop. This is your community market for all your shopping needs.

Our prices are the lowest in town (read: FREE). All it costs you is the 1/1000th of a calorie that you burn clicking your mouse.

What we do ask here at the OSS is that you send a kind email if you find errors on game times, locations, bracket set up, or scores and such. This is a community market, so make it better by being a heady shopper and pointing out errors in a constructive manner. The OSS does have nearly 300 games in 30 tourneys, so mistakes are bound to crop up.

Keep an eye out for our red text specials. Red text at the OSS means that we have not finalized this information. If you have links showing verification for game times or TV not yet cemented in the OSS, please email TBB and let us know.

We are still under construction, but we thought you might enjoy browsing in the month leading up to conference tourney time.

Thanks for shopping with us, and enjoy all the conference tourney brackets in this handy shop.

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THE OOOOONNNNNEEEE, STAHHHHHHHHP, SHOP!

Last Night's GOI
--Creighton 82, at Bradley 71. Big win for the Jays...tremendous blow to Braves.
--at Dayton 84, George Washington 69. A-10 is going to be wild and woolly.
--at Florida 74, Vanderbilt 64. Vandy acquitted themselves well, but UF is not likely to lose in the O-dome.
--at Hofstra 79, VCU 68. This is the pride we expected from the get-go.
--at Indiana 71, Wisconsin 66. Hoosiers score a signature win.
--Alabama 73, at LSU 70. LSU looks dead in the water.
--at Ohio 91, Toledo 80. Bobcats hand the Rockets their first conference loss.
--Ohio State 78, at Purdue 60. Boilers are pretty far out on the fringe.
--Gonzaga 90, at Stanford 86. Zags likely cemented their bid barring multiple WCC losses..
--at Tennessee 82, Georgia 71. No Lofton, no problem. UGA lost its shooting mojo (38%).
--Texas 76, at Texas Tech 64. Apparently, Kevin Durant can play a little basketball.
--BYU 76, at Utah 66. Cougars looking more viable by the day.

Tonight's GOI
--Washington State at Arizona. Zona can tie WaSU in the Pac-10 standings with a win here.
--Old Dominion at Drexel. Nice CAA tilt.
--Oregon at UCLA. They do not get any bigger in the regular season. One seeds for Pac-10 and NCAA tourneys at stake.
--Duke at Virginia. Cavs have won four straight ACC games including two on the road.

Bubble Shrinks to 12

The Bubble shrank from 13 to 12 this week in the Lockbox. This does not mean that it will shrink every week from here on out, but on SelSun there are usually 4-8 slots that are questionable. Usually, 2-3 of those slots are truly up for grabs.

We are far enough into the conference season to start recognizing some trends. Trends like:

1. Illinois is good at home, but bad on the road. The win over Michigan State is great, but the Illini will likely have to find some road wins to make the bracket.

2. Someone has to lose these ACC games. Not everyone is going to make it IN. Right now, Georgia Tech and Maryland are falling behind.

3. As some of the mediocre TV conference teams get ground up by the cream of their conferences, streaking teams from other conferences begin to look more viable as NCAA At-Large selections. New Mexico State and BYU immediately come to mind.

I have made two adjustments since Monday. Syracuse laid an egg at home last night against Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech lost at Wake to fall to 2-6 in league play. I replaced those two with Alabama (NO!!!) and Xavier. With much grumbling, I left Maryland (2-5 ACC) IN for the time being. There is room at the bottom of the bracket for any team with some meat on their schedule who would like to get hot at the right time. Let us hope some Bubble Boys post some nice wins this weekend so teams on the upswing can appear in the bracket on Monday.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--22 teams look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of them are conference leaders. That means that 11 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere. Example: Tennessee has now gone from "virtual lock" to "win games it should" to "Bubble IN" because of Chris Lofton's injury. Losing Lofton for multiple games in the meat of the SEC slate would qualify as "apocalyptic."
--11 other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 22 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 12 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--UNLV 76, at Colorado State 59. Solid win by surging Rebs.
--at Florida State 96, Maryland 79. This puts the 'Noles at .500 in the ACC and pushed MD to 2-5.
--at Illinois 57, Michigan State 50. Illini have four road games left. They need to prove themselves there to be an NCAA team.
--at Manhattan 75, Marist 74. Jaspers successfully completed a comeback late in the game.
--Wichita State 67, at Northern Iowa 61. Shockers may be hitting their stride a bit. Keep an eye on WSU.
--Notre Dame 103, at Syracuse 91. Irish hung a 61-spot on the Orange in the first half.

Tonight's GOI
--Creighton at Bradley. Bradley cannot afford to lose home games in conference.
--George Washington at Dayton. A-10 leading Colonials head to a tough venue.
--Vanderbilt at Florida. How hot is Vandy? This is as good a heat check as any.
--VCU at Hofstra. Rams put their 9-0 road record on the line.
--Wisconsin at Indiana. Monster Big 10 matchup with all kinds of NCAA, conference, and seeding implications.
--Alabama at LSU. Two teams in desperation mode.
--Toledo at Ohio. Two of best in the MAC.
--Ohio State at Purdue. Boilers with a chance to score that signature win.
--Gonzaga at Stanford. Zags could REALLY use a big win for their resume.
--Georgia at Tennessee. Vols are reeling and UGA is rolling.
--Texas at Texas Tech. A Raiders win would even them in the standings with the 'Horns.
--BYU at Utah. In-state rivalry alert!

BracketBusters Announced

BracketBusters pairings were announced last night and they went pretty much to plan. I got 24 of the 26 teams in the TV games correct, and two that I missed make good sense.

ESPN went with "higher conference standing" over "higher RPI" by taking OVC leader Austin Peay and the WAC's Boise State over lower-tier MVC teams Indiana State and Evansville. Good for them. I think it's better that way.

I got 5 of the 13 matchups exactly right (note: ESPN actually announced 14 TV matchups, which is one more than was previously suggested. It seems that CS-Fullerton at Wright State was the "extra" matchup). These five matchups are listed in green. Correct teams are listed in black. Incorrect teams are listed in red. ESPN's matchups not in green are in parentheses.

Southern Illinois at Butler
Northern Iowa at Nevada
Bradley at VCU
Appalachian State at Wichita State
Kent State at George Mason
Utah State at Creighton (Drexel at Creighton)
Drexel at Missouri State (Winthrop at Missouri State)
Winthrop at Hofstra (Holy Cross at Hofstra)
Ohio at Oral Roberts (Utah State at Oral Roberts)
Holy Cross at Indiana State (Ohio at New Mexico State)
Old Dominion at New Mexico State (Old Dominion at Toledo)
Evansville at Toledo (Austin Peay at Akron)
Albany at Akron (Albany at Boise State)

BONUS!: (Cal State-Fullerton at Wright State)

Last Night's GOI
--at Appalachian State 67, College of Charleston 56. App St holds serve at home in this important SoCon contest.
--at Butler 71, Illinois-Chicago 45. Uhh...loss avenged, I guess.
--Pitt 65, at Villanova 59. Nova misses out on a signature win.

Tonight's GOI
--UNLV at Colorado State. Big Mt West matchup; Rams have been good at home (6-1, only loss to Air Force by 6).
--Maryland at Florida State. Two classic Bubble Boys and one will get a big leg up over the other tonight.
--Michigan State at Illinois. Illini need this one a lot more.
--Marist at Manhattan. Winner gets sole possession of 2nd in the MAAC.
--Wichita State at Northern Iowa. Shockers have a lot of work to do, but a road win here would help a bunch.
--Notre Dame at Syracuse. Irish need to prove themselves on the road. A loss here could boot the Orange from Bracketville.

Letters/Weekend Forecast 1/26-128

"Letters! We get letters! We get lots and lots of letters! LETTERS!"

"8 teams from the ACC??? Has any conference ever had 2/3 of its members make the Big Dance?

While I love the ACC and live in ACC country, they are not even the top conference (PAC-10). Maryland is hardly a tournament team and BC just lost a major difference maker."

~Paymon

No, no conference has ever had 2/3 of it's members make the dance. The Big Ten sent 7/11 in 1994, though (61%). That said, the ACC is not likely to send eight. This will sort itself out in the coming weeks.

The ACC actually is #1 in the RPI. And, right now, I think Maryland is a tourney team, although their situation is tenuous. They could be one of the ACC teams that gets squeezed out as the season wears on.

"I think you have Marquette a little too low right now. They should be at least a 4 seed if not a 3. They have 3 top 25 rpi wins away from home (duke and texas tech on neutral floor and at pitt yesterday). They are 6-1 away from home. The only flaw on their resume is a loss to NDSU. When they lost to providence they did not have mcneal and matthews was not 100%."

YoungMUFan4

Marquette is looking more impressive all the time. And, if they win this weekend, they will likely move up again. But, that loss to NDSU was at home in Marquette's own tournament. They have to pay a little for that one.

"Hi there - I'm a frequent follower of your board during NCAA BB season. Why isn't New Mexico St. on the radar screen at all? Thanks."

Anonymous

While the win over Nevada was great and the Aggies have won 14 of 15, they have losses to 200+ teams Loyola Marymount and LA Tech. They also lost to #141 New Mexico. They possess only two top 100 RPI wins. Still, if they maintain this pace of winning (read: nearly ALL), then they will show up at some point. But, they will not be able to erase the fact that they have ZERO top 100 non-conference wins. And, currently, their RPI is only #81. The Aggies are a long shot at this point for At-Large. Beating Nevada again and sweeping USU would help a lot.

"What about Winthrop at High Point? Winthrop is 5-0 in conference, and High Point is 6-0. This is a huge game for the Big South."

Anonymous

Horrendous oversight on my part. I have included it in the GOI roundup below.

Last Night's GOI
--East Tenn St 80, at Belmont 70 (OT). Huge OT win for the Bucs who are now two games clear of the A-Sun field.
--UCLA 62, at Cal 46. Bears have their work cut out for them to make the Show.
--at Duke 68,Clemson 66. Duke gave this game away, then benefited from some extra time on the clock and tore out the Tigers' heart.
--Winthrop 64, at High Point 63. Road wins over your top conference contender go a long way.
--Butler 70, at Loyola (Chicago) 66. See Winthrop vs High Point above.
--at Oral Roberts 73, Oakland 63. ORU takes the outright MCC lead.
--at Stanford 65, Southern Cal 50. Cardinal solidify their position with this one.
--at Washington 89, Oregon 77. If the Huskies find their form, the Pac-10 is going to be wild.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Arkansas at Alabama. Two clubs in severe need of a win.
--North Carolina at Arizona. Massive non-conference tilt.
--Florida at Auburn. Gators have been grinding on the road and Auburn is coming off a lambasting of Bama.
--Air Force at BYU. Tough road test for the Falcons.
--Southern Cal at California. Cal must win their home games to keep hope alive.
--Providence at UConn. Two fringe teams.
--Indiana State at Creighton. Withering Trees really need this one.
--VCU at Drexel. This is as big a conference game as any this weekend.
--Michigan at Indiana. Wolverines need to cash in a big win somewhere.
--East Tenn St at Lipscomb. The Bisons try to bring ETSU back to the field a bit.
--Syracuse at Louisville. Cards can get back into the convo with a win here.
--Ohio State at Michigan State. Teams only get so many chances to score home wins like this.
--Bradley at Missouri State. Loser will have a hard time finding it's way IN on Monday.
--Utah State at Nevada. Aggies have won 5 straight.
--Villanova at Notre Dame. Irish have been very tough at home.
--Illinois at Purdue. Illinois needs to consolidate it's home win over Indiana earlier this week.
--Oregon at Washington State. Important game for Pac-10 positioning.

Sunday
--Boston College at Duke. BC is in dire need of a signature win.
--Virginia at Clemson. Tigers must bounce back from heartbreaking Duke loss.
--LSU at Georgia. LSU is wilting as UGA is flowering.
--Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech. GT needs it more at this point.
--Tennessee at Kentucky. No Lofton will be hard to overcome in Lexington.
--UCLA at Stanford. Cardinal took out Oregon last night.
--DePaul at West Virginia. Both need to get hot immediately.

"Upsets"/Sun Belt Bracket

"Upsets" and Home Teams
I am not one for predicting game results. I have indulged in a little experiment over the last two weeks in regards to picking "upsets." A lot of going 4-0 with these picks was simply picking a solid home team over a team with more national buzz that might be overrated.

How big is the home court advantage? Take these home records into consideration.

1-20 RPI: 218-10 (.956 win %) at home.
21-40 RPI: 213-21 (.9103). 431-31 (.9349) cumulative Top 40.
41-60 RPI: 139-21 (.8688). 570-52 (.9164) cumulative Top 60.
61-80 RPI: 176-24 (.8800). 736-76 (.9064) cumulative Top 80.

I stopped at the top 80 RPI mainly because these are the teams with real At-Large hopes. These are good basketball teams, regardless of conference.

Now, granted, a lot of these home wins are over far lesser teams. And, in the coming weeks, I will try to delve into the numbers a bit more and find out how top 80 teams fare at home against other top 80 teams to get an idea of home court advantage in games between good teams. I am sure Palm or Pomeroy or someone else has good info on this and I'll link it if I find something that will save me a lot of time and work.

For now, let's leave it at this: the top RPI teams play LOTS of home games and they win them at a HIGH clip. That is to be expected. It takes a Herculean effort to beat a good team in their gym. I mainly just wanted to set the table for future discussions about scheduling and home court advantage.

Sun Belt Bracket
I am in the midst of putting together the 2007 One Stop Shop. The Shop will have all 30 conference tournament brackets in simple, logo-free form and will be updated as results are completed during the conference tourney season to keep you up-to-the-minute (OK, maybe not "minute," but it's updated several times per day) on game results. The bare brackets should be up next week or in early February.

For kicks, here is what the Sun Belt tournament bracket would look like if the season ended today.

Last Night's GOI
--VCU 75, at George Mason 62. Rams are 8-0 on the road. THAT is tasty.
--at Georgia 78, Kentucky 69 (OT). Dawgs came from 17 down to pick up a nice win.
--Vanderbilt 64, at LSU 53. LSU is floundering badly. How long will it take for pollsters to see this?
--at Maryland 80, Georgia Tech 65. Terps avoided a 1-5 start and kept hope alive.
--at Mississippi 83, Tennessee 69. Vols need Chris Lofton back sooner rather than later.
--Florida 70, at Mississippi State 67. Gators grind out another on the road.
--Creighton 66, at Missouri State 62. Bears have lost two straight home games in conference. Ouch.
--at Rhode Island 75, UMass 72. Rams are quietly leading the A-10 right now.
--at South Carolina 66, Arkansas 60. Hogs have yet to win a true road game.
--at Texas Tech 70, Texas A&M 68. Raiders are in great shape with this win in tow.
--at Wisconsin 71, Michigan 58. It will be shocking if the Badgers lose at the Kohl Center this season.

Tonight's GOI
--East Tenn St at Belmont. Two of the A-Sun's best.
--UCLA at Cal. Bears could make hay at home here.
--Clemson at Duke. Neither is likely to win the ACC, but both are strong contenders for #2.
--Butler at Loyola (Chicago). Ramblers are 7-1 at home this season
--Oakland at Oral Roberts. HUGE game between MCC leaders.
--Southern Cal at Stanford. Cardinal need to hold serve at home in this one.
--Oregon at Washington. Huskies have to get off the mat soon to make any sort of run.

Lockboxing 1/24

Auburn's shellacking of Alabama boosted my Upset Pick record to 4-0. With any more success, my ego might reach Stephen Colbert/Bill O'Reilly proportions. The dirty secret is that it was not that big of an upset. OK, no one likely saw an 81-57 piledrive coming, but the fact is that Bama is not playing that well. They are just not that good. Auburn is not great, but they are improving.

The Lockbox is updated and I did not make any IN/OUT changes from Monday. I did place a few more teams in lower case black text and a few more in blue text. Several more teams appear to be nailing down their slots early.

There are several TV Land and poll darlings that are nothing more than Bubble Boys in familiar clothes. Roll out the red, bubbly carpet for Alabama, LSU, and Maryland. Even though hordes of writers and coaches (read: SID's) are voting for these teams, they are mere bubble teams. Believe it. Look at their RPI, lack of quality wins, and conference records. Gonzaga is also a bubble team. These preseason darlings have plenty of work to do. UConn and Washington are not even on the radar right now.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--20 teams look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Ten of them are conference leaders. That means that 10 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere. I did downgrade Tennessee from "virtual lock" to "win games it should" because of Chris Lofton's injury. Losing Lofton for multiple games in the meat of the SEC slate would qualify as "apocalyptic."
--11 other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation--mostly because it's only the midpoint of the conference season. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 21 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 13 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--at Auburn 81, Alabama 57. The Tigers romp in a TBB Upset Pick.
--at Boston College 85, Florida State 82. BC holds serve at home and forces FSU further toward the line.
--at Illinois 51, Indiana 43. Illini got the quality win that they desperately needed. Backing this up with a win at Purdue this weekend might make them bracket-viable.
--Villanova 82, at Providence 73. Nova gets a nice roadie. Cats are rolling a bit.
--at SIU 56, Northern Iowa 54. Valley continues to bloody one another. This makes for a three-way tie for first in the loss column (SIU, UNI, Creighton).

Tonight's GOI
--VCU at George Mason. Rams will get a test from a GMU that has won five straight.
--Kentucky at Georgia. After letting Bama off the hook in Tuscaloosa, the Dawgs have a chance for a big win at home.
--Vanderbilt at LSU. Both Bubble Boys need this one badly.
--Georgia Tech at Maryland. The Terps simply cannot start 1-5 in the ACC and call themselves an NCAA team.
--Tennessee at Mississippi. Danger time for UT without Chris Lofton.
--Florida at Mississippi State. Bulldogs could get their hat in the ring with an upset here.
--Creighton at Missouri State. Every Valley game is big.
--UMass at Rhode Island. Two of the three A-10 teams tied for first right now.
--Arkansas at South Carolina. Always have to be careful on the road, Hogs.
--Texas A&M at Texas Tech. In-state rivalry alert! Carries Big XII and NCAA ramifications.
--Michigan at Wisconsin. Wolverines with a chance to greatly bolster their resume.

BracketBusters Update 1/23

The top of the BracketBusters standings remained fairly static and will likely do so until the matchups for the 102 teams are announced next Monday, January 29. The television schedule will be finalized on February 5. Here is an idea on what the TV matchups would look like as of today.

ESPN2 Games
Southern Illinois at Butler
Northern Iowa at Nevada
Drexel at Missouri State
Bradley at Hofstra
Appalachian State at Creighton
Holy Cross at Wichita State

ESPNU Games
Utah State at Indiana State
Ohio at New Mexico State
Winthrop at VCU
Sam Houston State at Long Beach
Evansville at George Mason

ESPN360 Games
Old Dominion at Akron
Albany at Toledo

It looks like four or maybe five games will actually have bracket impact. That Butler/SIU matchup will be a meat grinder (pace of play: #331/#324).

Tonight's GOI
--Alabama at Auburn. In-state rivalry alert! Also, let's make this an official TBB Upset Pick.
--Florida State at Boston College. Two ACC teams scrapping for slots pretty low in the bracket.
--Indiana at Illinois. Illini need this one to bolster NCAA hopes. They are clearly out at this point.
--Villanova at Providence. Cats try to keep momentum going after a big week.
--Northern Iowa at SIU. UNI leads the MVC by one in the loss colum over SIU and Creighton.

Seven Weeks Remaining

We are less than seven weeks from Selection Sunday. The conference slate is quickly approaching the midway point and races are beginning to take form. Bracket Board Bias has been severely cut back in this bracket. It is always tough at the bottom, but I am a sucker for Top 50 wins, so teams with bulky win resumes won out over some other hopefuls even if they had some bad losses early on.

So, in this week's bracket, I like Syracuse, Boston College, Creighton, and Vanderbilt as my last four IN. They edged out LSU, Drexel, Bradley, Georgia, California, Illinois, Purdue, and West Virginia among some other more fringe-y teams.

Not including LSU will undoubtedly send some folks into a tizzy, but while they did beat Texas A&M, they also are 3-5 against the Top 100 RPI and they were demolished by 20 at Arkansas this weekend. Plus, those losses to Wichita State and Washington do not look so "quality" now. They just have not done enough.

Vandy is in because they have beaten Tennessee, Alabama, and Kentucky in the last 10 days. Keep an eye on the 'Dores. The SEC East is packed with NCAA hopefuls.

BracketBusters standings are on tap for tomorrow with a Bubble Boy Breakdown and Lockbox update coming Wed.

Oh, and let me take a moment to trumpet my 3-0 Upset Picks last week. New Mexico State did indeed take care of Nevada on Saturday. I'm sure I'll lose my mojo at some point.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (8): North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Florida State, Boston College
Big East (6): Pitt, Notre Dame, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Washington State, Southern Cal, Stanford
SEC (6): Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Big XII (5): Kansas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
Big Ten (5): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan
Missouri Valley (4): Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Creighton
Mountain West (2): Air Force, UNLV

Tonight's GOI
--UConn at Louisville. Both of these teams look like NIT teams right now. A win here could kickstart their NCAA hopes a bit.
--Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. In-state rivalry alert! Bedlam: hardwood style.

Weekend Forecast 1/19

"I've got a good idea. Let's pretend we're real human beings." ~Ty Webb, Caddyshack (1980)

Southern Cal's win over Arizona last night makes me 2-for-2 in upset picks this week. While I'm on a hot streak, I'll try to voice my upset pick daily if there is one out there. And I think there is this weekend...read on.

Also, get out and enjoy a live game this weekend. There are a LOT of games and likely one close to you. Buy and ticket and get out to a local game this week if you can even if it is "small college" game. I like hoops on TV as much as the next person, but we miss out on the best stuff if we slack in attending live events. Go forth and cheer, eat popcorn, and interact with real humans.


Last Night's GOI
--at Creighton 65, Bradley 54. Big win for the Jays over a fellow Valley Bubble Boy.
--Northern Iowa 75, at Missouri State 65. Yep, it's going to get messy in this league.
--at Oregon 66, Stanford 59. Ducks continue to roll.
--at Southern Cal 80, Arizona 73. This makes me two-for-two on upset picks this week.
--at Xavier 83, UMass 77. Two evenly matched teams and the home team won. See yesterday's post.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Georgia at Alabama. Dawgs won at The Ark earlier this week. Bama is coming off their bloodbath at Vandy.
--LSU at Arkansas. LSU needs to win a quality road game and the Hogs are smarting from the UGA home loss.
--Wichita State at Bradley. Every Valley team must feel like they must win these games.
--Boston College at Clemson. Clemson tries to bounce back from two straight ACC losses.
--SIU at Creighton. It's big. We get it. All Valley games are important at this point because they all feel like they are on the Bubble.
--Wisconsin at Illinois. Illini need to find some big wins and they do not get much bigger than this.
--Purdue at Michigan. Winner will likely be in the bracket on Monday.
--Nevada at New Mexico State. Dangerous WAC tilt for the Pack. Let's make this the Upset Pick of the Weekend.
--Georgia Tech at North Carolina. Good match up, though no team can realistically expect to win in Chapel Hill this season.
--Indiana State at Northern Iowa. See any other Valley game above.
--California at Oregon. Bears need some quality W's.
--Oklahoma State at Texas A&M. Powerhouse Big XII clash.
--Kansas at Texas Tech. Red Raiders need to cash in at home against top comp.
--Arizona at UCLA. Clash of the Titans, Pac-10 style.
--Texas at Villanova. Nova could really do a week's work; they beat ND earlier and could score a big non-conference win here.
--Washington at Washington State. When was the last time the Huskies were a decided dog in this game?
Sunday
--Missouri State at Evansville. Roberts Stadium is a dangerous venue when Eville has any kind of team...and they do this season.
--Marquette at Pitt. MU will try to stamp themselves as the decided #2 in the Big East by beating #1.
--Maryland at Virginia Tech. Two volatile ACC clubs.

RPI Purpose and Conference Road Losses

Packer's RPI Gaffe
Last weekend during a telecast, CBS threw up a graphic with some of the favorites to win the national title accompanied with their current RPI. Florida was at #32 at the time (#30 now) and their relatively low RPI compared to Ohio State, North Carolina, and others stuck out like a sore thumb. This prompted analyst Billy Packer to say, "Find me 31 teams in America that are better than Florida." And, this comment forces me to once again post on the purpose of the RPI.

The RPI is NOT a ranking of the best teams. It is not solely a measure of who is playing the best. It is not an indicator of great defenses, offenses, coaches, or any other aspect of the game.

The RPI is a tool that measures how well a team has performed against it's given schedule. It is all about wins and losses. Playing teams with good records helps; playing teams with bad records hurts. A team's own wins and losses count a great deal, but the difficulty of a team's schedule plays a huge role as well. Florida's first six opponents currently have a combined record of 19-59. See, it does not matter to the RPI that UF is a great team. What the RPI sees is that Florida played two teams that are currently 0-15 (North Florida and Prairie View A&M) and that destroys your strength of schedule. We can all see that UF is likely going to be a 1-seed. We do not need the RPI for that.

The RPI is merely a tool used by the selection committee to see how teams have fared against their schedule. Teams with good RPI's are sometimes left out (see #21 Missouri State and #30 Hofstra last year) and teams with iffy RPI's sometimes get in (#58 Seton Hall last year). Packer, and many others, just do not seem to get it. This is part of the reason why he will have another apoplectic meltdown on Selection Sunday.

Death, Taxes, and Conference Road Losses
Check out these scores from last night:
at UALR 71, Western Kentucky 69
at Auburn 83, Tennessee 80
at Charlotte 80, Dayton 59
at Evansville 75, Southern Illinois 68
at Florida State 82, Virginia Tech 73
at Villanova 102, Notre Dame 87
at Vanderbilt 94, Alabama 73

All of these results are somewhat surprising and a few are downright shocking. But that's the nature of playing on the road in conference. ANY conference road win should be viewed as precious gold. Over the last two nights, home teams are 56-17. Let that sink in for a second. It is very tough on the road in conference play.

So, road winners (most notably, Georgia over Arkansas and North Carolina over Clemson), bask in the glow of these outstanding accomplishments. And, go back to your home courts and defend them with your lives.

Last Night's GOI
--Georgia 67, at Arkansas 64. Dawgs are officially in the NCAA picture.
--North Carolina 77, at Clemson 55. Tigers do not look ready for UNC-level teams.
--at Florida State 82, Virginia Tech 73. 'Noles get a desperately needed big win.
--at LSU 62, Mississippi 55. Tigers are sort of treading water.
--at Vanderbilt 94, Alabama 73. My upset warning of the night last night came through in a BIG way.
--at Villanova 102, Notre Dame 87. Cats got that signature win they were looking for.
--at Wisconsin 69, Purdue 64. Boilers played tough, but came up a bit short.

Tonight's GOI
--Bradley at Creighton. Both are looking like Bubble Boys at this stage, so this is a big one.
--Northern Iowa at Missouri State. Another important Valley tilt--especially for UNI.
--Stanford at Oregon. Ducks are tough at home, but the Cardinal are hot.
--Arizona at Southern Cal. My Official Upset Warning of the Night. This would not be a huge one, but an upset nonetheless.
--UMass at Xavier. Probably the two best teams in the A-10.

Bubble Boy Breakdown 1/17

I introduced the Lockbox last week, but this is the first Bubble Boy post. Every Wednesday, from here through Selection Week, TBB will break down the current Bubble situation.

The Lockbox has been updated to reflect teams standings as of today. I have made two changes regarding IN/OUT teams since Monday. Gonzaga's loss to St. Mary's pushes them out of first place in the WCC and out of the bracket. Also, I placed Indiana State in the bracket instead of California. It was simply a change of heart when looking at the profiles this morning.

There are a lot of teams with huge preseason expectations that are currently outside looking in or are in real danger of missing the tournament. UConn and Washington have much work to do to make a bracket appearance. LSU has not really done anything to validate their lofty status although they are in currently in the bracket. Maryland, Florida State, Georgetown, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Illinois, and Gonzaga are all merely Bubble teams at this point. There is a lot of sorting out to be done in the coming weeks.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--13 teams look to be on track to get in barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Seven of them are conference leaders. That means only six At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--18 other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation--mostly because it's still early in the conference season. Those teams are listed in blue. Four of them are conference leaders, so that means 14 more At-Large bids are tentatively taken. That makes 20 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 14 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

My annual "Purpose of the RPI" post is coming tomorrow. This is sparked by something Billy Packer said this past weekend and was reinforced in a couple of other games that I watched this week.

Last Night's GOI
--at Memphis 79, UAB 54. CUSA looks like a one-bid league this season.
--at Oklahoma State 105, Texas 103 (3OT). What a treat! I truly hope you stayed up for the ending. Some really bad crunch-time decisions was overshadowed by incredible clutch shot-making by both teams.
--at Pitt 63, UConn 54. Huskies might get there eventually, but they need a BIG conference season.
--at Virginia 103, Maryland 91. Cavs needed it more and they got it.

Tonight's GOI
--Georgia at Arkansas. Dawgs could push toward the bracket with a win here.
--North Carolina at Clemson. Tigers have the Heels at home. This should tell us if Clemson is going to contend for the ACC crown.
--Virginia Tech at Florida State. Red-hot Hokies meet the desperate 'Noles. FSU needs this one badly.
--Mississippi at LSU. Rebs can get into the picture with a win here.
--Alabama at Vanderbilt. My upset warning of the night.
--Notre Dame at Villanova. Cats need a big win for their resume.
--Purdue at Wisconsin. Boilers could make a huge statement in a tough venue...but it's unlikely.

BracketBusters Standings 1/16

"My bills are all due and the babies need shoes, but I'm busted
Cotton is down to a quarter a pound and I'm busted
I've got a cow that went dry and a hen that won't lay
A big stack of bills that get bigger each day
The County will haul my belongings away! I'm busted!"

~Johnny Cash, "Busted" (At Folsom Prison, 1968)

The ESPN BracketBusters match ups will be announced on January 29. Nearly a full third of the NCAA hoops nation (a whopping 102 teams) will be taking part in this year's event. This gigantic slate has led to criticism, but having more teams helps ensure some meaningful games at the top for ESPN. It also means a lot of meaningless games (about 40) in regards to bracket impact. Nevertheless, count me in the "pro-buster" camp for the time being.

The top six games will be on ESPN2. Five more games will be shown on ESPNU, with two more broadcast on ESPN360.

I have created a page showing the current BracketBusters standings. They are listed by current RPI from best to worst for both the home and away teams. I will update the standings again next Tuesday.

As of today, the TV match ups might look something like this:

Southern Illinois at Butler (ESPN2)
Drexel at Missouri State (ESPN2)
Appalachian State at Creighton (ESPN2)
Bradley at Nevada (ESPN2)
Old Dominion at Wichita State (ESPN2)
Northern Iowa at New Mexico State (ESPN2)

Ohio at Indiana State (ESPNU)
Holy Cross at Hofstra (ESPNU)
Utah State at VCU (ESPNU)
Winthrop at Marist (ESPNU)
Hawaii at Long Beach (ESPNU)

Sam Houston at Siena (ESPN 360)
Albany at Oral Roberts (ESPN360)

You can read more about Buster here.

The season's first Bubble Boy breakdown comes tomorrow. Thursday, I get a chance to tell Billy Packer why he is wrong about the RPI. That's always fun.

Tonight's GOI
--UAB at Memphis. Blazers seem to be down from recent seasons, but this is one of the few real threats Memphis will face in CUSA.
--Texas at Oklahoma State. Big game for Big XII positioning.
--UConn at Pitt. The Huskies need to show that they can at least hang with the Big Easy cream.
--Maryland at Virginia. Cavs have lost 5 of last 8 and need a big win to get them back on track.

Bracket Update 1/15

There is still some BBB (Bracket Board Bias) in this bracket, but the amount of BBB decreases weekly. I will not go into great detail here, because a full Bubble Boy update and Lockbox will come on Wednesday. Three things about this bracket:

1. The 9 and 10 seeds are almost completely reversed due to bracketing rules. This is the most I have ever had to "swap seeds" to get it to work.

2. The last four slots were a toss-up among about nine teams: I went with Cal, Syracuse, Georgetown, and DePaul and left out Purdue, Indiana State, Villanova, Illinois, and Michigan.

3. I doubt the bracket will stay this power conference heavy all season. The ACC will not get eight teams in, more than likely.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (8): North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Florida State
Big East (7): Pitt, Notre Dame, Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown, Syracuse, DePaul
Pac-10 (7): UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Washington State, Southern Cal, Stanford, California
SEC (6): Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas,
Big XII (5): Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech,
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State
Missouri Valley (3): SIU,Missouri State, Creighton,
Mountain West (2): Air Force, UNLV

Weekend Forecast 1/12-1/14

So many conference games are important at this stage of the season. It's still early enough that just about everyone has hope in conference play. This list will likely shrink a bit as the season wears on, but this early jockeying in conference play matters so much come March.

For example, take the Vanderbilt-Georgia game on Saturday. Those teams have Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee twice. They also play Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU. Vandy and UGA probably expect to beat the lower tier of SEC teams, but wins against the list above would be considered upsets. They are caught in the middle. Hence, this looks like a huge game for both. Gotta have wins against fellow conference Bubble Boys.

In fact, there are a host of games that fit this mold. Enjoy them.

Tonight
--Lipscomb at Belmont. I believe they call it The Battle for the Boulevard down in Nashville. One of these two will likely represent the A-Sun in the NCAA Tourney.
--Bucknell at Holy Cross. HC has a chance to send a message about who is the favorite in the Patriot this season.
--Creighton at Northern Iowa. Match ups of MVC contenders are precious regarding Valley standings and Bubble status.

Saturday
--Virginia at Boston College. Two teams that look quite Bubbly at this point.
--Washington at California. Both teams need it badly. Huskies need to make a statement if they are to be considered an elite team this year.
--Vanderbilt at Georgia. In the stacked SEC, these are must wins for teams in the second tier.
--Florida State at Georgia Tech. Two ACC clubs on the way up this season.
--Nevada at Hawaii. It's never easy on the island.
--Bradley at Indiana State. Two MVC teams both looking like Bubble Boys.
--West Virginia at Marquette. Both could use quality wins, but Marquette needs it more since it's a home game.
--Clemson at Maryland. Tigers look to go 18-0.
--Oklahoma State at Nebraska. Huskers have not lost at home this season.
--Tennessee at Ohio State. Monster non-conference match up.
--Drexel at Old Dominion. Two CAA contenders jockey for position.
--Georgetown at Pitt. Hoyas need a statement win.
--Michigan at Purdue. Interesting game. Purdue was embarrassed by Indiana this week and this is the type of game that Michigan has to win to be considered a true NCAA team at this point.
--Gonzaga at Santa Clara. Let's see if the Broncos are going to challenge the Zags for the WCC crown this season.
--UCLA at Southern Cal. Huge opportunity for the Trojans to solidify their NCAA status a bit.
--Missouri State at SIU. These two figure to be at the top of the heap in the Valley.
--Washington State at Stanford. Cardinal could use a signature win. Cougars have been impressive to this point in Pac-10 play.
--Villanova at Syracuse. Orange in dire need of a big win.
--BYU at UNLV. These two figure to duke it out for 2nd in the Mt West behind AFA.
--North Carolina at Virginia Tech. VT usually plays big in big games.
--Air Force at Wyoming. Cowboys took out UNLV in Laramie earlier this week.

Sunday
--Oregon at Arizona. Man, nearly every game in the Pac-10 seems important this weekend.
--Duke at Miami-FL. Important for Duke to get that first ACC win.
--Illinois at Michigan State. These perrennial powers' NCAA outlook is far from rosy at this stage. They need to make bank.

Lockbox Updated

The Lockbox color-codes teams based on where they stand at this point. A team only achieves "LOCK" (BLACK CAPS) status when they could survive losing out and still make the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, no team is quite there yet. However, there are a few teams that are IN barring an apocalyptic event. Only something like losing two starters to injury or forgetting how to dribble could make teams like North Carolina, Florida, and Pitt miss at this point. Still, I do not hand out LOCK statuses like candy. There will be plenty of slots come Selection Sunday that will not be LOCKS.

The color key is on the Lockbox page.

The Weekend Forecast comes tomorrow. TBB will resume its mid-season form on Monday:

Mondays: New bracket.
Tuesdays: Bracket Buster standings.
Wednesdays: Bubble Boy breakdown.
Thursdays: Wild Card.
Fridays: Weekend Forecast.

I do have a 2-week old at home these days, so please bear with me if I skip a day here or there.

Last Night's GOI
--at Bradley 48, SIU 46. Braves get a much needed big win.
--Marquette 73, at UConn 69. Note to poll voters: UConn is not even a NCAA team right now, much less Top 25.
--Pitt 59, at DePaul 49. DePaul's late surge was not enough.
--at Georgia Tech 74, Duke 63. Jackets score a big win and drop the Dukies to 0-2 in the ACC.
--at Illinois 74, Iowa 70. Hawkeyes are quickly heading into desperation mode.
--at Indiana 85, Purdue 58. OUCH. Hoosiers are hitting their stride (won 6 of 7)
--at Indiana State 68, Wichita State 63. The Trees are now a viable At-Large candidate. Shockers are squandering some big early season wins by falling to 1-4 in the Valley.
--at Kansas 87, Oklahoma State 57. When KU has it going, they are as good as anyone. A most impressive display last evening.
--at Texas 88, Missouri 68. Mizzou has serious road work to do.
--at Wyoming 86, UNLV 76 (OT). The TBB knew what it was doing when it put this game on the GOI. The Cowboys are TOUGH in Laramie.

Tonight's GOI
--Washington State at California. The Bears need this one more.
--Hofstra at Drexel. Two of the CAA undefeateds.
--Memphis at Houston. One of the few games that Memphis should fear in CUSA.
--Washington at Stanford. Both severely need solid win.

First In-Season Bracket

The first in-season bracket projection is up. For future reference, simply click the "current bracket" link to the right under the Bracketology section.

A heavy dose of bias and benefit of the doubt exists here. I left in Creighton, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Michigan State, Georgetown, and Wichita State. There are strong arguments to be made for their exclusion. I kept out UConn, Illinois, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Providence, DePaul, Indiana State, Syracuse, and Boston College. Some of those teams have as good a case as some that I have in. It was simply a matter of personal taste at this point in some of these cases. This will sort itself out a great deal in the coming weeks.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (7): North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Big East (6): Pitt, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette
Big Ten (6): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State
SEC (6): Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, LSU
Missouri Valley (5): Missouri State, SIU, Northern Iowa, Creighton, Wichita State
Big XII (5): Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas
Pac-10 (5): UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Washington State, Southern Cal
Mountain West (2): Air Force, UNLV

Tonight's GOI
--SIU at Bradley. Bradley needs some big wins to bolster at-large hopes.
--Marquette at UConn. UConn has ZERO wins vs the top 100 RPI.
--Pitt at DePaul. Demons could make a huge statement here at home.
--Duke at Georgia Tech. See DePaul.
--Iowa at Illinois. Both of these clubs are scrambling a bit.
--Purdue at Indiana. This rivalry game means more than it has in a long, long while.
--Wichita State at Indiana State. The Trees welcome the suddenly needy Shockers.
--Oklahoma State at Kansas. For the inside track to the Big XII title.
--Missouri at Texas. Tigers are 11-3, but have no road wins.
--UNLV at Wyoming. Cowboys have not lost at home, so the Rebs should beware.

Out of the Void

Now the earth was formless and empty, darkness was over the surface of the deep...~Genesis 1:2

Out of the shapeless mass of November and December comes the beginnings of an identifiable creation in January. No, I'm not ready to unveil an in-season bracket yet. That will likely come early next week on Monday or Tuesday. But, today, I think we can scratch up a list of teams expected to make the Dance barring major nosedives or signigicant injuries.

This list is based on one question:

Would I be more than a little surprised if this team missed the NCAA Tourney based on performance to this point, their existing talent, and their current resume?

I answered "yes" when looking at these teams.

ACC: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Maryland, Florida State
Big XII: Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas A&M
Big East: Pitt, Notre Dame, West Virginia
Big Ten: Wisconsin, Ohio State
CUSA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
MVC: SIU, Wichita State
Mt West: Air Force, UNLV
Pac-10: UCLA, Arizona, Oregon
SEC: Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU
WAC: Nevada
WCC: Gonzaga

There are 30 teams from 12 conferences on this list, meaning that 18/34 of the At-Large bids look to be taken at this point. Granted, this is merely a list of likely NCAA teams in early January.

There are a number of teams that can join this list by accomplishing a bit more over the next few games (Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Villanova, Michigan State, and Georgia Tech come to mind) or bouncing back from a recent slide (Washington, Marquette).

Some teams listed here will almost assuredly fall off the list as conference play separates wheat and chaff. This is just an early stab to identify the contenders.

A full bracket is coming on Monday or Tuesday.

Baby TBB Has Arrived!

Sorry for the slow post-Christmas posting, but my first child was born on Wednesday! Mom and baby are doing well.

I will resume as time and sleep allows. New bracket soon after New Year's.

Duke/Gonzaga Highlights GOI

No time for a long post today. More coming tomorrow and/or Friday.

Last Night's GOI
--at Arizona 79, Memphis 71. The win over Kentucky is likely the best win Memphis is going to have this season.
--at Texas 80, Arkansas 76. Solid win by the 'Horns, and not damaging to Ark.
--at Washington 88, LSU 72. Tigers end Pac-10 swing on a sour note.
--Nebraska 73, Wyoming 58. Huskers have been money at home. They will need some road wins for serious At-Large consideration. This neutral court win helps a bit.
--at Utah 94, Virginia 70. Whoa. Cavs are getting plowed under in San Juan (by 11 to Appalachian State and 24 here).

Tonight's GOI
--Gonzaga vs Duke. Duke is 1-1 away from Cameron. Zags are 2-3 away from the Kennel.
--Pittsburgh vs Oklahoma State. Huge neutral court win for one of these teams.
--Tulsa vs Oklahoma. In-state rivalry alert!
--San Diego State vs Washington State. Both have realistic At-Large hopes.

A Lockbox Is Born

Many conferences have started play at this point, and that means that it is time to start seriously thinking about teams' accomplishments in the non-conference. Therefore, I have put some teams into the Lockbox for thought. This first Lockbox is merely a list of teams from each conference that have put themselves in some sort of a position to make a run at an At-Large bid, so there is no color-coding at this point. It is still too early for that. I have plugged in the conference favorite in some of the "one-bid" conferences even though some of them have no real shot at an At-Large bid. There will be a Lockbox link to the right for the rest of the season. I will take a crack at a bracket sometime between Christmas and New Year's.

I also should mention that WTBB is 36 weeks pregnant. Keep an eye out for the big announcement in coming days/weeks.

Meanwhile, enjoy this first stab at the 2007 Lockbox. I realize that there are some teams that I may have left off that have a legitimate shot. I will continue to think through teams in the coming days. Feel free to email and make suggestions. I like nice people, so keep that in mind when you write in.

Tonight's GOI
--Memphis at Arizona. MUCH bigger for Memphis. There are not many quality wins to be had in CUSA this year.
--Arkansas at Texas. Someone will snag a quality non-conference win.
--LSU at Washington. The Tigers took down a lesser Pac-10 team in Oregon State on Sunday. Much tougher row to hoe in this one.
--Wyoming at Nebraska. Both on the fringe of At-Large hopes.
--Virginia at Utah. Dicey game for the Cavs.

Weekend Forecast

First, we need to praise the REAL forecast: 67 degrees and sunny tomorrow in Bowling Green, KY! Folks must take advantage of these days in December.

OK, onto the weekend in college hoops.

Weekend GOI
Saturday
--Texas Tech at Arkansas. Knight is closing on Dean Smith. I do not think he gains in Fayetteville, though.
--Utah State at BYU. In-state rivalry alert! Cougars have not lived up to expectations. USU is 8-1.
--Creighton at Fresno State. Creighton has also struggle a bit early, but the Bulldogs are blazing at 8-1, albeit with no impressive wins.
--Gonzaga vs Georgia. Both Bulldog teams have looked good early. UGA lost its only game a stiff competition, however (a home loss to WKU).
--Kentucky at Louisville. See yesterday's post.
--Western Kentucky at Tennessee. WKU needs a signature win to bolster At-Large hopes.
--Pittsburgh at Wisconsin. Probably the game of the weekend. These two are a combined 20-1.
Wooden Tradition
--Purdue at Bulter. Who would have dreamed this game would mean this much?
--Ohio State vs Cincinnati. Big test for the Bearcats.
Sunday
--Southern Illinois at Indiana. Indiana gets a chance to upset SIU at home.

Dream Game Nightmare

As veteran readers of this blog know, I am a Kentucky boy through and through. Born and raised in the rural, rolling land of central Kentucky, I grew up driving tractors, working on farms, and enjoying the beautiful woods and rivers (Rough River was my local body of water) of our great state.

Growing up in Breckinridge County also meant that your college basketball team was the Kentucky Wildcats. That, in turn, meant that it was your duty to hate Louisville. And, every year, these two clubs hook up for the "Dream Game" in December. The two did not play in the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s. Louisville accused Kentucky of dodging them for most of those years. But, when UK and UL met in the 1983 Mideast Region Final of the NCAA Tournament, their relationship changed. The two clubs played to a draw in regulation, but Louisville ran away in overtime for an 80-68 victory. The two clubs have played every year since the original "Dream Game."

I have never failed to watch a "Dream Game." Although my heart lies with Western Kentucky, this is still one of the most important non-conference games in the country. But, I cannot a remember a game with less national impact than this year's edition which will take place on Saturday. Kentucky is 6-3 with losses to UCLA, Memphis, and North Carolina. Their best win is over 5-3 Indiana. Coach Tubby Smith is, rightly or wrongly, under intense pressure from fans due to his lack of deep tournament runs and multiple double-digit loss seasons. Many fans feel that his style simply turns off top recruits and that UK lacks elite talent. The situation is becoming more tumultuous at Louisville as well. The Cards are 4-3 with losses to Arizona, Dayton, and a home loss to UMass last night. All of their wins have occurred in Freedom Hall and only Ohio has a winning record to date. For most of the college basketball world, it was unthinkable that Rick Pitino's sixth Cardinal team would be unranked at any point during a season.

Neither team is ranked. Neither will be ranked regardless of the outcome on Saturday. Neither figures to challenge for their conference title. Louisville is coming off of an NIT and fears are growing that they will return there. UK was an 8-seed last season and fans fear a similar fate or worse this season.

But, in a strange, bizarro-world way, this "Dream Game" has MORE meaning than many past meetings. Most years, both teams are ranked and will clearly dance in March. Alas, the loser of this game will be in full panic mode. UL could conceivably drop to 4-4 with two straight home losses. UK could drop to 6-4 with a loss to a struggling rival.

One team will put out the fire at least for the short term. One team will have kerosene poured on its already spreading blaze.

The game is on CBS at 12.30 CST on Saturday.

Last Night's GOI
--at Cincinnati 67, Xavier 57. The Bearcats sprung an upset in Mick Cronin's first big win. Great timing for the Bearcats.
--UMass 72, at Louisville 68. This looks like a huge road win for UMass, but something is up at Louisville. A loss to Arizona is one thing. A neutral court loss to Dayton is not disastrous. A loss at home to UMass alone might not break their backs, but the three combined are puzzling. And the three combined say that UL is not an NCAA team right now.
Belt
--at Florida Atlantic 91, Troy 87. FAU wins their Belt opener at home.
--at New Orleans 80, UL-Lafayette 76. Bo McCalebb went for a career high 36 in this one. He fires the salvo in Courtney Lee's direction for Sun Belt POY honors.

Tonight's GOI
Sun Belt Slate
--Denver at Arkansas State. The Pioneers (1-9) have been playing some of the worst basketball in the country. ASU's (3-7) preseason buzz has been silenced.

State of the Sun Belt Address

Greetings my fellow Americans and Sun Belt enthusiasts...

Hello? Is this thing on? Oh. OK.

The start of conference play normally brings excitement, anticipation, and the general feeling that basketball is in full swing. Unfortunately, for the Sun Belt Conference, the swing resides on a broken-down playground overgrown with weeds and chiggers.

In the mid-to-late 1990s, the Belt was consistently ranked #14-16 in Conference RPI. It was the classic hard-nosed one-bid conference. Then, the Belt started to slide in 2000, falling to #19 by season's end. Part of this can be attributed to WKU's slippage after Matt Killcullen's disastrous, soul-crushing tenure. It makes sense that the conference would slip with one of the conference stalwarts hobbled. Plus, Denver (is that in the "sun belt"?) was added to the conference and promptly went 6-22, further damaging the conference RPI. However, the Toppers were back to their old 20-win tricks in 2001...and the conference still slipped to #20. In 2002, WKU was in the top 30 RPI, yet the conference only moved up one slot to #19.

This is where is gets interesting. From 2003 to 2005, the conference looked to be on the uptick by moving from #19 in '02, to #15 in 2003, #16 in 2004, and up to #13 in 2005. Then, the conference added Troy last season and the conference slipped back to #18. This season, the Belt has added both Florida Atlantic and UL-Monroe and the conference currently sits at #20.

Division I-A football has been the motivating factor behind the addition of Troy, FAU, and UL-Monroe. In the short run, it is hurting basketball. In addition to bringing in poor hoops teams, some traditionally strong basketball schools are in disarray or transition. UALR has struggled mightily early on. South Alabama's NCAA team from last season was gutted by graduation. UL-Lafayette lost three senior starters from a fairly mediocre team. MTSU is trying to mesh a lot of young players. Denver has hit rock(y mountain) bottom after losing C Yemi Nicholson. Hurricane Katrina has left an indelible mark on New Orleans' program. Arkansas State and FIU have not been relevant for a long time.

The Belt currently has only TWO teams with winning records: WKU (8-2) and North Texas (6-2). It remains to be seen what will happen in the long run with the IA football additions. Hopefully, those schools will improve and the old conference standard-bearers will again find their way. But, even through the sunny-beltiest of lenses, this looks like a bad year for the league.

That said, conference play begins tonight. On the bright side, many of this year's clubs are young, so this season could lay a good foundation for some good teams in the next couple of years, especially at WKU, MTSU, UL-Lafayette, and South Alabama.

May God bless you, and may God bless (have mercy on?) the Sun Belt.

Tonight's GOI
--Xavier at Cincinnati. In-city rivalry alert! The Crosstown Shootout usually plays out nicely. The X is certainly the favorite this season.
--UMass at Louisville. If the Minutemen are going to make a serious run at an At-Large bid, they could use this one. The Cards simply need a win over a solid team, and they are tough at home.

Sun Belt Slate
--Troy at Florida Atlantic
--UL-Lafayette at New Orleans

Dear Santa

Dear Santa,

It is just 13 days until Christmas, so I figured I had better get my letter in the mail. I have been a very good boy this year. I watched a lot of November basketball even when most folks were more concerned with that sport with the oblong ball and chattering about which teams will play for its (pseudo) "championship." I have attended all of my team's home games. I have endured Dukevision as gracefully as any boy should. I religiously scour Kenpom.com and CollegeRPI.com and will continue to do so on a daily basis as those numbers become more and more relevant. I am wearing my Mid-Majority shirt as I type this letter. Like I said, I've been the model fan so far this year.

As a college hoops junkie, I have several items on my wish list this year.

1. A Louisville Slugger baseball bat. Now, Santa, I know that YOU know that I do not play baseball. This is for me to use in case the NCAA Selection Committee shafts the Missouri Valley again this season. I could use this bat to either A) smash my television in frustration or B) drive to Indianapolis and use said bat to bludgeon Gary Walters and the Selection Committee in person. I realize that this could jeopardize my "very good boy" status for next Christmas.

2. A Magic Muzzle. To be used on Digger Phelps, Dick Vitale, or Billy Packer as I see fit.

3. An NCAA bracket line for Western Kentucky. And, if it's not too much to ask, could it come opposite a bloated, overrated, power conference team?

4. Continued success and high "rankings" for Wichita State and Butler. We need to know what the committee will do with Top 15 (Top 10?) teams from non-power conferences.

5. A "sleep bank." My first child arrives in a month and I'd like to save some sleep in the coming weeks. Or, better yet, a "basketball-to-sleep converter," which cashes in "hours of basketball watched" for sleep. Yeah, that's the ticket!

6. An All-American card for Courtney Lee.

7. A white Christmas.

8. A "make-up" call. From: The Selection Committee. To: Missouri State.

OK, that is enough for now, Santa. I hope that you enjoy the milk and cookies that I left out for you. They are organic, fat-free, trans fat free, and tempo-free. Safe travels.

Your friend,

TBB

Salukis Survive Toppers

When Egyptian dogs and Big Red Blobs collide, something wonderful has to happen. Coming into the contest, Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky both had just one loss on their otherwise pristine resumes. SIU had a tough overtime loss to Arkansas on Thanksgiving Day and WKU was walloped by Florida on November 25. These are two teams are expected to be playing in the NCAA Tournament in March. This match up had a lot going for it and it did not disappoint.

It was widely understood that the winner of this game would be the team that dictated the pace and terms of the contest. The Salukis came into Diddle and set their methodical pace right out of the gate. They rolled up a 33-17 lead with under five minutes to play in the first half with some blistering shooting in addition to their ballyhooed half-court defense (If there is a team with better half-court defense than SIU, I have yet to see them.). WKU responded behind a raucous crowd and some demonic D of their own to storm back and actually take a one-point lead late in the game. Ironically, they never truly pushed SIU out of their comfortable tortoise pace during this run. The Toppers chipped away by letting All-American candidate Courtney Lee do this thing: read, score the ball. He did it from Three, with stop and rise mid-range jumpers, with gliding forays to the rim, and with one of the filthiest follow-up dunks in the history of humankind.

A comeback from 16 down, a seething crowd in a foamy frenzy, and a team with depth is too much for most road teams to overcome. But SIU calmly regrouped and do what championship teams do. Senior PG Jamal Tatum hit a fade-away 16-footer with a defender draped all over him as the shot clock expired. Senior 2G Tony Young saved a ball from going out of bounds that led to a Saluki threeball. Tatum sank critical free throws down the stretch. Ballgame.

The young Toppers undoubtedly learned a lot in this game. While this loss stings, it is a loss that should pay dividends as the season wears on. SIU is a team that should be carefully watched this season. It will become easier to keep tabs on them because they likely will have little numbers next to their name this week. If their outside shooting holds up, the sky is the limit. More on Saturday's WKU/SIU tilt here, here, and here.

It's finals week for most of the country, which means fewer games and a lot more grading (for me, at least). The GOI is going to be sparse this week. There is a big Saturday coming up. More on that later this week.

Weekend Forecast

It's been a busy week. The recording of my band's (Redfoot) album begins tonight, so I must head out of town. I'll be in the studio all night tonight and tomorrow, but will return to Bowling Green for the monster game between WKU and Southern Illinois in Diddle Arena tomorrow night. That should be a great one. I'll have a full report on that game on Sunday or Monday.

Enjoy the weekend.

Last Night's GOI
--at Eastern Kentucky 72, Murray State 66 (OT). EKU trailed by 10 at the break before storming back in the 2nd half and winning in the extra frame.
--Michigan 62, at Miami (OH) 56. The Wolverines held off a late surge to win a road game.
--at Notre Dame 99, Alabama 85. ND is officially an At-Large contender.
--at Vanderbilt 59, Lipscomb 50. Vandy gets a not-so-easy win.

Weekend Forecast
Tonight
--Iowa State at Iowa. The consolation game of the Iowa State Championship. Northern Iowa has already beaten both of these teams.
Saturday
--Xavier at Creighton. The Jays could use a big win about now. This certainly qualifies.
--Washington at Gonzaga. Should be a battle royale. Zags lost to Wash State earlier this week.
--Indiana at Kentucky. This stakes have been much higher, but it's still a big game for both.
--Wisconsin at Marquette. In-state rivalry alert! Simply a great college hoops match up.
--Missouri at Purdue. Two teams that have been off the NCAA radar for awhile that are off to blazing starts.
--Arizona at San Diego State. Massive game for SDSU. This would go a long way on their resume.
--Southern Illinois at Western Kentucky. One of the top non-power conf games of the early season.
--Wichita State at Wyoming. Dangerous roadie for the juggernaut Shockers.
--Texas A&M at UCLA. TAMU took an "L" at LSU and has a second chance to collect some quality road hide.
Sunday
--Maryland at Boston College. The Eagles need it more.
--LSU vs Texas. Great bowl game or hoops match up these days.

WKU Runs Past Montana

The Hilltoppers (8-1) scored a huge road win over the Montana Grizzlies (2-5) last night in Missoula. Wooden candidate Courtney Lee racked up 25 points, 12 rebs, and 5 steals to power the Tops to victory. Reserve forward Matt Maresca came off the bench to toss in a career high 16 points in the win as well.

The Tops got off to a slow start and trailed 27-15 with just over 8 mins to play in the first half. But, from that point, the Topper depth did it's job and methodically wore down the Grizz. Montana was outscored 66-38 the rest of the way. Read the WKU take here and Montana's thoughts here.

In other news, the Sun Belt is still struggling. Although, the conference did go 2-2 last night including two road wins. In addition to the Tops' win at Montana, North Texas won at Stephen F. Austin by a 76-70 count. The Mean Green are getting it done despite missing their best player. Kendrick Davis tore a flexor in his wrist after punching a window following the Green's loss to TX-Arlington. He will be out a couple of more weeks at least. He may even miss North Texas' game in Diddle Arena on December 19. Temper, temper.

Last Night's GOI
--UMass 56, at Boston U 54. In-state games rarely disappoint.
--at Dayton 60, Creighton 54. The Rhyme Game goes to Dayton. The Flyers have been solid in the non-conference. The Jays will have to pick it up to compete in the MVC.
--Villanova 67, at Oklahoma 51. Oklahoma looks to be in official rebuilding mode.
--at Tennessee 76, Memphis 58. Chris Lofton is a one-man-gang. Definitely UT's best game of the season to date.
--at Utah State 60, Utah 57. Another tight in-state rivalry game. The Aggies are 7-1.
--at Virginia Tech 72, Old Dominion 55. Good win for VT that they desperately needed.
--at West Virginia 71, NC State 60. 'Eers are 6-1 now. Pack has dropped two straight.

Tonight's GOI
--Murray State at Eastern Kentucky. In-state rivalry alert! Cross state OVC rivals kick off their conference season.
--Michigan at Miami (OH). Why this game? Because this is a game that NCAA teams win. Michigan has a good record (8-1) but ALL of those wins came at home against weak competition and the Wolverines lost their only road game at NC State.
--Alabama at Notre Dame. The Irish are stirring up some talk. A win here would send a clear message that they are for real this year.
--Lipscomb at Vanderbilt. In-city rivalry alert! Vandy has been shaky and Lipscomb is probably the best team that the Atlantic Sun has to offer.

Jimmy V Classic

Were we watching four NCAA Tournament teams in the Jimmy V Classic last night? My Magic 8-ball says, "yes." Oklahoma State defeated Syracuse and Arizona held off Louisville in Madison Square Garden last night amidst the annual celebration of the life of Jim Valvano and the V Foundation for cancer research.

To say that these four will be tourney teams is no stretch, but remember that neither OK State nor UL made the Dance last year. Furthermore, the Cuse was OUT of the bracket until their monster run through the Big East Tournament. So, these were not teams that were in great position last year.

I wrote about the state of basketball here in Kentucky yesterday and I also said that we would know more about Louisville after tonight. What did we learn?

1. The Cards have young talent. Guard Edgar Sosa (FR), wing Terrence Williams (SO), and freshmen forwards Earl Clark and Derrick Caracter have loads of athleticism. Coach Rick Pitino still has work to do into making them basketball players.

2. Perpetual injury. Center David Padgett has two surgically repaired knees that may never be 100%. PG Andre McGee was out with injury as well. The Cards have had LOTS of injury problems over the last two seasons.

3. Where is the defense? So far this season, the Cards are ranked #190 in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. They also play a slow pace (#243). Let's see, poor defense and slow ball...their coach is Rick Pitino, right? Maybe this will turn around as the season wears on.

The Cards now settle in for TEN (10!) straight games at home in Freedom Hall. I guess that is good for a young team, but how will that look when Big East play begins with two straight road games at Notre Dame and South Florida? The Cards were terrible on the road last season (1-8) and they made no effort to get any road experience before conference play this season. We shall see if this hinders them in conference play again this year.

Last Night's GOI
--at LSU 64, Texas A&M 52. Aggies first real test results in an "L." No real shame in losing in Baton Rouge, however.
--at Washington State 77, Gonzaga 67. The Cougars recovered from their loss to Utah to grab a huge non-conference win. We'll be watching Wash State.
Jimmy V Classic
--vs Arizona 72, Louisville 65. Not quite the statement Louisville wanted to make, but the potential is there with this team if these youngsters learn to defend a bit better. 'Zona's Chase Budinger and Ivan Radenovic were both impressive.
--Oklahoma State 72, Syracuse 68. Cowboys are going to contend in the Big XII.

Tonight's GOI
--UMass at Boston U. In-state rivalry alert! UMass is supposed to win, but this is a rivalry game.
--Creighton at Dayton. Both have just one loss and starting to have At-Large thoughts dance in their heads. Plus, they rhyme.
--Villanova at Oklahoma. Two teams that figure to need all of wins they can get for at-large purposes.
--Memphis at Tennessee. In-state rivalry alert! As far as the east is from the west...at least within the borders of Goreland. Should be a dandy.
--Utah at Utah State. In-state rivalry alert! Always a nice match up.
--Old Dominion at Virginia Tech. VT was a sexy pick to make noise this season, but they aree just 3-3 and ODU is dangerous.
--NC State at West Virginia. See Villanova at Oklahoma.

State of the Bluegrass

The state of Kentucky can undoubtedly be called a "basketball state." Football in the Bluegrass is on the rise on both the high school and college levels (see Louisville's BCS game, Kentucky's bowl trip, and WKU's recent move to I-A status), but this is still basketball country. For most of the state, they fly the flag of the Big Blue Flagship in Lexington. A healthly number of Louisville folks fly cardinal red and a good number have the WKU Hilltoppers in their heart in south central Kentucky. Murray State, Morehead State, and Eastern Kentucky all have a handful of diehards, too. Most seasons, it is only Kentucky and Louisville that enjoy the little numbers next to their names when their games show up on the tube.

This season is a bit different. For the first time in a very long time, Western Kentucky garnered more votes than either UK or UL in the AP popularity contest, I mean, poll. Readers of this site know that TBB pays virtually zero attention to the polls, but this does serve as a marker since both UK and UL have been virtual mainstays for decades. After Kentucky's 13-loss season last year and their 4-3 start this season, many bluebloods in the state are foaming at the mouth. Louisville has already lost to Dayton in the early going and received zero votes in the latest AP poll. WKU, EKU and Morehead State are on the uptick this season. Murray State is rebuilding, but has cleaned up their image. UK and UL have plenty of season left to move in a positive direction, but while the rest of the state seems to be improving, fanbases for the two traditional powers are becoming restless. Both have highly paid, highly visible coaches who had subpar seasons last year and are off to less-than-stellar starts this year. UK, UL and WKU all have huge games coming up:

Kentucky: Sat., host Indiana
Louisville: Tonight vs Arizona
WKU: Wed., at Montana; Sat., host SIU

We will learn a lot about these three this week.



Last Night's GOI
--at Kansas 72, Southern Cal 62. The Jayhawks bounce back after their loss to DePaul.
--at Wisconsin 82, Winthrop 79. The Eagles missed another big upset by a hair. They have played North Carolina and Wisconsin very tough in road games. They were handled more easily by Maryland, but beat Mississippi State in Starkville. They still have trips to ODU and Texas A&M left.

Tonight's GOI
--Texas A&M at LSU. The Aggies have yet to lose, but this is their first game against high-caliber competition.
--Gonzaga at Washington State. In-state rivalry alert! This one would have a lot more luster if WASU had not lost to Utah on the weekend.
Jimmy V Classic
--Louisville vs Arizona. Louisville needs to make a statement in this game to get back onto the national scene.
--Oklahoma State vs Syracuse. Cowboys are back in the national picture and this game could establish them as a contender.

Quickly...

Sorry for the brevity, but TBB is under an avalanche of papers and other commitments this week. I will set aside time for a "real" post tomorrow.

Tonight's GOI
--Southern Cal at Kansas. Every game is interesting for the up-and-down Jayhawks.
--Winthrop at Wisconsin. The Eagles continue their punishing tour versus top teams. And they are a threat to the Badgers.

Battle for the Bluegrass/Weekend Forecast

One of the best moves of the Darrin Horn era at WKU was the renewal of the basketball series with Eastern Kentucky University three years ago. WKU holds a monster lead in the all-time series, but EKU has a couple of historic wins that sting Topper souls. This cross-state rivalry game brings loads of fun for the players, fans, and alumni of both schools. The Tops have taken the first two games of this renewed series by handling Travis Ford's NCAA-bound EKU team two years ago, and the Tops held off Eastern in Richmond last year despite a furious second half comeback by the Colonels. Another edition of the Battle for the Bluegrass heats up tomorrow night in Bowling Green. WKU again will be favored to win, but EKU will undoubtedly pack a lunch and come to play. EKU is off to a decent 3-1 start including two road wins, but WKU's depth is going to be tough to overcome in this one.

Last Night's GOI
--at Missouri 86, Arkansas 64. Mike Anderson has Mizzou in a nice spot. They are 8-0 and seem to be recovering from the Quin Snyder debacle more quickly than expected. These are the kinds of losses that keeps pressure on Stan Heath in Fayetteville.
Belt
--The Sun Belt has been so bad to this point, readers can just assume that all Belt teams lost unless otherwise noted. Enough with me giving you the painful game-by-game embarrassment. Hey, by the way, Middle Tennessee won at home over Indiana State last night, 65-58. That secured a 1-3 record for the Belt last night. Yippee.

Weekend Forecast (All times CST)
Saturday
--Illinois vs Arizona. [4.15 pm, ESPN]. The Illini are likely to be without Jamar Smith.
--Northern Iowa at Bucknell. This figured to be another nice home win for the Bison, but the Panthers have performed better in the early going. Bucknell is 2-4 and desperately needs this one.
--Georgetown at Duke. [6 pm, ESPN2]. The Hoyas could really use a prestige win. Indiana nearly got Duke in Cameron earlier this week.
--Texas vs Gonzaga. [2pm, ESPN]. Tasty little matchup that is a great resume builder.
--Boston College at UMass. This is the Minutemen's chance to announce their NCAA At-Large viability.
--Kentucky at North Carolina. [11 am, CBS]. Battle of Bluebloods looks to have a powder blue tint this year. Kentucky still seems to be searching at this point.
--Villanova at Penn. Ah, a Big Five matchup. College hoops is officially in full swing.
--Clemson at South Carolina. [12 noon, FOX South]. In-state rivalry alert!
--Wichita State at Syracuse. The Shockers have already won at LSU. The Orange have not been challenged to date.
--Eastern Kentucky at Western Kentucky. In-state rivalry alert!

Sunday
--Nevada vs California. Both off to blazing starts.
--Florida at Florida State. In-state rivalry alert!!!
--Bradley at Michigan State. I'm not sure how good either of these teams are.
--NC State at Virginia. [2.30 pm, FOX]. Important ACC opener for both clubs.