State of the Sun Belt: Early Edition

We will look at the state of Sun Belt about once per month during the season. This seems like a good time given the Belt's 0-4 performance last night. In the preseason, I took an optimists' view of the league: the Belt returned 11/15 of the all-conference team and the bad teams looked to be improved. I should have known that it is always a bad idea to be optimistic about the Belt.

First, the good news: league favorite WKU has lived up to the hype so far. The Toppers are 5-1, losing to Gonzaga on a neutral court, but beating Michigan on an NC. They also pasted perennial OVC power and local rival Murray State by 24. UNO has actually been better than advertised with big road wins at NC State and Tulane. The Privateers have yet to lose. North Texas, last year's NCAA rep, has continued their solid play. South Alabama and UALR have been solid, too. The jury is still out on FIU (1-1) and UL-Lafayette as they have only played two games, but neither has been impressive.

The problem is that the other six teams have not just been bad, they have been horrendous. Most puzzling in UL-Monroe. The Warhawks won the West last year and returned five starters, yet have gone 0-4 to start the season. Granted, those losses are to teams that are a combined 14-2 and all have been on the road, but ULM has not even been close in these games. They play just ONE non-conference home game against a D-I school. That is recipe for failure in a big way and most of these games are money games. FAU (1-5) was a bit of a dark horse pick in the East, but they have yet to play a home game. They lost to Cleveland State on a neutral court and at UMKC last night. Troy is winless vs DI teams and needed OT to beat Paul Quinn. Denver has actually been a little better than expected.

Most disappointing are Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee State. These teams were expected to challenge in their divisions and have simply been terrible. A-State has lost at home to Utah Valley State and have not been competitive in any of their road games. MT has lost home games to San Jose State and Appalachian State, and were absolutely dismantled by Tennessee (109-40!!!) and Belmont (by 23 last night). There is simply too much talent on the Blue Raiders' roster for these ridiculous results.

Granted, many of the struggling teams are playing a lot of road games, but that is part of the problem. Scheduling is tough as a Sun Belt team, but we have to do better than this.

The early read is that WKU, UNO, North Texas, South Alabama, and UALR need to keep it up. The rest need to step it up.

Last Night's GOI
--Davidson 71, at Appalachian State 60. Yeah, they have lost two games early, but make no mistake about who is the heavy favorite in the SoCon. It's the Wildcats.
--Wake Forest 56, at Iowa 47. Some nice reflection on Skip Prosser (RIP) during this broadcast.
--at Holy Cross 62, Ohio 60. Ralph Willard has yet another fine club this year. They have home games against Yale and Dayton this week, then go on the road for five of six games including tests at Saint Joseph's, Siena, and Maryland.

Tonight's GOI
--Northern Iowa at Iowa State. In-state rivalry alert!
--Sam Houston at UW-Milwaukee. The BearKats have beaten Texas Tech and Fresno State at home. Let's see how Sam plays on the road.
Big Ten/ACC Challenge
--Purdue at Clemson. We've seen this fiery start from Clemson before only to see them collapse in a heap, but the Tigers have already possess a road win at Miss State. This is the Boilers' first road game and first real test.
--Wisconsin at Duke. Both unblemished and both have looked strong.
--Minnesota at Florida State. Tubby Smith's first test as Gopher coach.
--Georgia Tech at Indiana. Did you know that 7 of GT's first 8 eight games are away from home?
--Northwestern at Virginia. Cavs are smarting from a recent loss to Seton Hall. This does not look good for the Wildcats.
Sun Belt Slate
--Colorado at Denver. State vs City.
--Troy at Mississippi. Troy: 0-3. Ole Miss: 4-0.
--UALR at Rice. Rice is winless.
--UAB at UL-Lafayette. ULL is winless.
--Alcorn State at UL-Monroe. Both winless.

"Upsets"/Sun Belt Bracket

"Upsets" and Home Teams
I am not one for predicting game results. I have indulged in a little experiment over the last two weeks in regards to picking "upsets." A lot of going 4-0 with these picks was simply picking a solid home team over a team with more national buzz that might be overrated.

How big is the home court advantage? Take these home records into consideration.

1-20 RPI: 218-10 (.956 win %) at home.
21-40 RPI: 213-21 (.9103). 431-31 (.9349) cumulative Top 40.
41-60 RPI: 139-21 (.8688). 570-52 (.9164) cumulative Top 60.
61-80 RPI: 176-24 (.8800). 736-76 (.9064) cumulative Top 80.

I stopped at the top 80 RPI mainly because these are the teams with real At-Large hopes. These are good basketball teams, regardless of conference.

Now, granted, a lot of these home wins are over far lesser teams. And, in the coming weeks, I will try to delve into the numbers a bit more and find out how top 80 teams fare at home against other top 80 teams to get an idea of home court advantage in games between good teams. I am sure Palm or Pomeroy or someone else has good info on this and I'll link it if I find something that will save me a lot of time and work.

For now, let's leave it at this: the top RPI teams play LOTS of home games and they win them at a HIGH clip. That is to be expected. It takes a Herculean effort to beat a good team in their gym. I mainly just wanted to set the table for future discussions about scheduling and home court advantage.

Sun Belt Bracket
I am in the midst of putting together the 2007 One Stop Shop. The Shop will have all 30 conference tournament brackets in simple, logo-free form and will be updated as results are completed during the conference tourney season to keep you up-to-the-minute (OK, maybe not "minute," but it's updated several times per day) on game results. The bare brackets should be up next week or in early February.

For kicks, here is what the Sun Belt tournament bracket would look like if the season ended today.

Last Night's GOI
--VCU 75, at George Mason 62. Rams are 8-0 on the road. THAT is tasty.
--at Georgia 78, Kentucky 69 (OT). Dawgs came from 17 down to pick up a nice win.
--Vanderbilt 64, at LSU 53. LSU is floundering badly. How long will it take for pollsters to see this?
--at Maryland 80, Georgia Tech 65. Terps avoided a 1-5 start and kept hope alive.
--at Mississippi 83, Tennessee 69. Vols need Chris Lofton back sooner rather than later.
--Florida 70, at Mississippi State 67. Gators grind out another on the road.
--Creighton 66, at Missouri State 62. Bears have lost two straight home games in conference. Ouch.
--at Rhode Island 75, UMass 72. Rams are quietly leading the A-10 right now.
--at South Carolina 66, Arkansas 60. Hogs have yet to win a true road game.
--at Texas Tech 70, Texas A&M 68. Raiders are in great shape with this win in tow.
--at Wisconsin 71, Michigan 58. It will be shocking if the Badgers lose at the Kohl Center this season.

Tonight's GOI
--East Tenn St at Belmont. Two of the A-Sun's best.
--UCLA at Cal. Bears could make hay at home here.
--Clemson at Duke. Neither is likely to win the ACC, but both are strong contenders for #2.
--Butler at Loyola (Chicago). Ramblers are 7-1 at home this season
--Oakland at Oral Roberts. HUGE game between MCC leaders.
--Southern Cal at Stanford. Cardinal need to hold serve at home in this one.
--Oregon at Washington. Huskies have to get off the mat soon to make any sort of run.