The season's first Lockbox is up. It is somewhat of a work in progress, but we are far enough along to wrestle with the primary question addressed by the Lockbox. Namely, how many spots are truly out there? Or, phrased another way, if I am not sure my team is going to the NCAA tournament, how many slots are really open?
The Bubble by the Numbers
--32 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--36 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 15 AL teams are listed in black. There are no LOCKS at this stage, though there is a short list that clearly are going to go dancing. The black teams are in great shape, but it's still early.
--I have nine other AL teams listed in blue, which means they could conceivable miss, but I'd be very surprised.
--That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Final Projection, Lockbox, SCKySSiP
Here lies my final bracket. The Ole Miss win today may have cost someone (unless the committee had them in anyway). In both my personal and the SCKySSiP bracket, Ole Miss shaved MTSU off the bottom of the bracket. It will be interesting to see how close MTSU actually was.
The final Lockbox looks like this (see post below). I think four slots could be swapped around a bit and it would not surprise me. That said, I think LaSalle and Boise State "should" be in. That leaves two slots for St. Mary's and Tennessee in my bracket, but if MTSU, Kentucky, Alabama, UMass, or Virginia show up, I will not be terribly stunned (especially MTSU or Kentucky).
Finally, here is the SCKySSiP mock selection committee's final S-curve. This is not a "guess" but rather a replication of the official selection rules (EVERY vote!). Participating in a mock selection is the best way to understand the bracket, and I would encourage (and help) those who would like to do one next year. We voted electronically during the week, and spent 4pm until 11pm last night finishing it up.
So, nothing left to do but lament why the B1G final is so late and then see the actually bracket. Sixty-eight stories will continue on...
The final Lockbox looks like this (see post below). I think four slots could be swapped around a bit and it would not surprise me. That said, I think LaSalle and Boise State "should" be in. That leaves two slots for St. Mary's and Tennessee in my bracket, but if MTSU, Kentucky, Alabama, UMass, or Virginia show up, I will not be terribly stunned (especially MTSU or Kentucky).
Finally, here is the SCKySSiP mock selection committee's final S-curve. This is not a "guess" but rather a replication of the official selection rules (EVERY vote!). Participating in a mock selection is the best way to understand the bracket, and I would encourage (and help) those who would like to do one next year. We voted electronically during the week, and spent 4pm until 11pm last night finishing it up.
So, nothing left to do but lament why the B1G final is so late and then see the actually bracket. Sixty-eight stories will continue on...
Lockbox Update and Today's Plan
The Lockbox has been updated. Read on, as on selection day, the meaning of the color of the teams changes just a bit.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 25 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams are near locks. It is hard to imagine them missing unless the committee goes off the grid.
--I have seven other AL teams listed in blue, which means they could conceivable miss, but I'd be very surprised.
--That means 32 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 5 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
And, those five teams that are truly Bubble to my eye are: LaSalle, Boise State, St. Mary's, Tennessee, and Middle Tennessee in that order. Any of those could miss in favor of Ole Miss, Alabama, Virginia, Kentucky, UMass, or even Southern Miss and I would not be stunned. That is what replicating this process gives you: an understanding that all of these teams at the bottom have deep flaws and their inclusion/exclusion can be justified.
If Ole Miss wins today, MTSU gets the axe. And, honestly, I may take Ole Miss as the very last team over MTSU even if they lose. I'll have to chew on this awhile longer and ponder final seeds a bit more. I'm set on the rest of my field.
Later today, I'll post the final SCKySSiP results and my final bracket.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 25 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams are near locks. It is hard to imagine them missing unless the committee goes off the grid.
--I have seven other AL teams listed in blue, which means they could conceivable miss, but I'd be very surprised.
--That means 32 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 5 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
And, those five teams that are truly Bubble to my eye are: LaSalle, Boise State, St. Mary's, Tennessee, and Middle Tennessee in that order. Any of those could miss in favor of Ole Miss, Alabama, Virginia, Kentucky, UMass, or even Southern Miss and I would not be stunned. That is what replicating this process gives you: an understanding that all of these teams at the bottom have deep flaws and their inclusion/exclusion can be justified.
If Ole Miss wins today, MTSU gets the axe. And, honestly, I may take Ole Miss as the very last team over MTSU even if they lose. I'll have to chew on this awhile longer and ponder final seeds a bit more. I'm set on the rest of my field.
Later today, I'll post the final SCKySSiP results and my final bracket.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Bracket Update 3/15
A new bracket has been posted.
There has been of jostling in the middle, but no changes in the 1 seeds or IN/OUT of late.
The SCKySSiP has paused to let some of the Bubble teams to play a few games before we vote any more teams in. We are currently sitting on 30 teams and will likely do another road of voting later today.
Finally, the Lockbox has been updated. The Bubble is down to 9 slots. Though still on the Bubble, Iowa State has to feel pretty good now. So, I favored St Mary's, Tennessee, Kentucky, and LaSalle, and left out Middle Tennessee and Virginia on the very edge. Virginia's fate is probably decided today: beat NC State, and they are in pretty good shape. Lose and they'll be a total coin flip. LaSalle is likely in a similar position. Beat Butler, they are likely IN. Lose and they'll sweat alongside MTSU and a few others.
Iowa could get into the conversation with a win over Michigan State. A handful of other teams could make themselves more viable with deep tourney runs (mainly thinking of a few SEC teams and UMass).
There has been of jostling in the middle, but no changes in the 1 seeds or IN/OUT of late.
The SCKySSiP has paused to let some of the Bubble teams to play a few games before we vote any more teams in. We are currently sitting on 30 teams and will likely do another road of voting later today.
Finally, the Lockbox has been updated. The Bubble is down to 9 slots. Though still on the Bubble, Iowa State has to feel pretty good now. So, I favored St Mary's, Tennessee, Kentucky, and LaSalle, and left out Middle Tennessee and Virginia on the very edge. Virginia's fate is probably decided today: beat NC State, and they are in pretty good shape. Lose and they'll be a total coin flip. LaSalle is likely in a similar position. Beat Butler, they are likely IN. Lose and they'll sweat alongside MTSU and a few others.
Iowa could get into the conversation with a win over Michigan State. A handful of other teams could make themselves more viable with deep tourney runs (mainly thinking of a few SEC teams and UMass).
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Lockbox/SCKySSiP Update
TBB's mock selection committee (SCKySSiP) is rolling along. We voted in 26 teams on the first ballot and have the next round of voting underway via email. By day's end, we will probably have 30 or so teams voted IN. I will update fully on this later or early tomorrow.
The Lockbox has been updated.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 24 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
The Lockbox has been updated.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 24 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Bracket Update 3/12
A new bracket has been posted.
At the bottom, it seems La Salle, Iowa State, Kentucky, and Tennessee are ahead of Virginia and Middle Tennessee to me eye. There are others still very much alive, of course.
More updates as time allows. We have the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (SCKySSiP, read: "SKISS-ip) rolling now as well. So, lots of Lockbox, SCKySSiP, and bracket updates coming in the days leading up to Selection Sunday.
And, maybe you heard on the Twitters, but "my" WKU Hilltoppers won four games in four days in the Sun Belt tourney for the second year in a row. They are looking like a 15/16 seed at the moment.
At the bottom, it seems La Salle, Iowa State, Kentucky, and Tennessee are ahead of Virginia and Middle Tennessee to me eye. There are others still very much alive, of course.
More updates as time allows. We have the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (SCKySSiP, read: "SKISS-ip) rolling now as well. So, lots of Lockbox, SCKySSiP, and bracket updates coming in the days leading up to Selection Sunday.
And, maybe you heard on the Twitters, but "my" WKU Hilltoppers won four games in four days in the Sun Belt tourney for the second year in a row. They are looking like a 15/16 seed at the moment.
Saturday, March 09, 2013
Lockbox Update 3/9
The Lockbox has been updated. A full bracket update comes later tonight or early tomorrow.
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
Today, for me, it came down to Iowa State, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky for the last three slots in the bracket. I took those first three and the Cats are out.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have four other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. This is down one slot from Wednesday as California has been moved off the Bubble. If they win their "should" games, the Bears are in. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
Today, for me, it came down to Iowa State, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky for the last three slots in the bracket. I took those first three and the Cats are out.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have four other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. This is down one slot from Wednesday as California has been moved off the Bubble. If they win their "should" games, the Bears are in. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
Wednesday, March 06, 2013
Bracket Update 3/6
Here is today's updated bracket. There has not been a ton of IN/OUT movement, but seed jostling is plentiful.
Last Four IN: Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, Villanova
First Four OUT: Iowa State, UMass, Maryland, Mississippi
Don't look now, but Providence is 7-1 in their last eight, has swept Villanova, and beat Cincinnati and Notre Dame recently. Their non-conference is a disaster, but a win over UConn in their finale and a little run in the Big East tourney is going to make them an interesting team.
Last Four IN: Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, Villanova
First Four OUT: Iowa State, UMass, Maryland, Mississippi
Don't look now, but Providence is 7-1 in their last eight, has swept Villanova, and beat Cincinnati and Notre Dame recently. Their non-conference is a disaster, but a win over UConn in their finale and a little run in the Big East tourney is going to make them an interesting team.
Tuesday, March 05, 2013
Conference Tourneys: ENGAGE!
The Big South and Horizon make it so today. The Big South is pretty relatively "open," with Charleston Southern as the fave. Over in the Horizon, Valparaiso's chalk is pretty bold.
I hope to get an updated bracket up at some point today as well.
I hope to get an updated bracket up at some point today as well.
Monday, March 04, 2013
Lockbox Update 3/4
The Lockbox has been updated. A full bracket update comes later tonight or early tomorrow.
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Bracket Update 2/28
Here lies the bracket and I will aim to update weekly if not more often from here on in.
The bottom is always tough, but I find it unusually difficult to sort out the 1-2-3 seeds this time around. There are reasons to downgrade nearly anyone from the 1-2's to a 3. And, any of the 3's are still alive for a 1 seed, I believe.
At any rate, the end of the season will be incredibly meaningful for even the very top of the bracket (as well as the bottom) this year.
Last Four In: Villanova, Kentucky, Boise State, Tennessee
First Four Out: Ole Miss, Virginia, Maryland, Baylor
The bottom is always tough, but I find it unusually difficult to sort out the 1-2-3 seeds this time around. There are reasons to downgrade nearly anyone from the 1-2's to a 3. And, any of the 3's are still alive for a 1 seed, I believe.
At any rate, the end of the season will be incredibly meaningful for even the very top of the bracket (as well as the bottom) this year.
Last Four In: Villanova, Kentucky, Boise State, Tennessee
First Four Out: Ole Miss, Virginia, Maryland, Baylor
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Lockbox Update 2/27
The Lockbox has been updated. I believe my first late-to-the-party bracket will go up tomorrow at some point.
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 20 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss.
--I have six other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 20 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss.
--I have six other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Official Conference Tourney Brackets
Conference websites have vastly improved their bracketing skills over the years. I think we have reached a point where building 30 brackets in an Excel workbook for easy clicking may be unnecessary. So, I think this actually is the One Stop Shop this year. Here is a list of links to the official brackets for each conference tourney. Some have yet to be posted and I have indicated as such. But, they are mostly there, mostly nice PDFs, and will be "conference official" brackets.
There still might be some gains from building the OSS, but probably not worth all the tiny timing/date errors and occasional adjustments I will miss putting all of it in. Conference tourneys begin in nine days. Enjoy.
OFFICIAL CONFERENCE TOURNEY BRACKETS
AmericaEast March 8-10 SEFCU Arena Albany, NY
ACC March 14-17 Greensboro Coliseum Greensboro, NC
Atlantic Sun March 6-9 Hawkins Arena Macon, GA
Atlantic 10 (no bracket) March 14-17 Barclays Center Brooklyn, NY
Big East March 12-16 Madison Square Garden New York, NY
Big Sky (no bracket) March 14-16 At Regular Season Champ TBA
Big South March 5,7,9-10 The HTC Center Conway, SC
Big Ten March 14-17 United Center Chicago, IL
Big 12 March 13-16 Sprint Center Kansas City
Big West March 14-16 Honda Center Anaheim, CA
Colonial March 9-11 Richmond Coliseum Richmond, VA
CUSA (no bracket) March 13-16 BOK Center Tulsa, OK
Horizon League March 5,8,12 Campus Sites TBA
Ivy REGULAR SEASON CHAMPION RECEIVES AUTOMATIC NCAA BID
MAC March 11, 13-16 Quicken Loans Arena Cleveland, OH
MAAC March 7-11 MassMutual Center Springfield, MA
MEAC (no bracket) March 11-16 Norfolk Scope Arena Norfolk, VA
Missouri Valley March 7-10 Scottrade Center St. Louis, MO
Mountain West March 12-16 Thomas and Mack Center Las Vegas, NV
Northeast March 6, 9, 12 Campus Sites TBA
OhioValley March 6-9 Municipal Auditorium Nashville, TN
Pac-12 March 13-16 MGM Grand Garden Las Vegas, NV
Patriot League March 6, 9, 13 Campus Sites TBA
Southern Conference March 8-11 US Cellular Center Asheville, NC
Southeastern March 13-17 Bridgestone Arena Nashville, TN
Southland March 13-16 Merrell Center Katy, TX
Summit League March 9-12 Sioux Falls Arena Sioux Falls, SD
Sun Belt March 8-11 Summit Arena Hot Springs, AR
SWAC March 13, 15-16 Curtis Culwell Center Garland, TX
WAC March 12, 14-16 Orleans Arena Las Vegas, NV
West Coast March 6-11 Orleans Arena Las Vegas, NV
There still might be some gains from building the OSS, but probably not worth all the tiny timing/date errors and occasional adjustments I will miss putting all of it in. Conference tourneys begin in nine days. Enjoy.
OFFICIAL CONFERENCE TOURNEY BRACKETS
AmericaEast March 8-10 SEFCU Arena Albany, NY
ACC March 14-17 Greensboro Coliseum Greensboro, NC
Atlantic Sun March 6-9 Hawkins Arena Macon, GA
Atlantic 10 (no bracket) March 14-17 Barclays Center Brooklyn, NY
Big East March 12-16 Madison Square Garden New York, NY
Big Sky (no bracket) March 14-16 At Regular Season Champ TBA
Big South March 5,7,9-10 The HTC Center Conway, SC
Big Ten March 14-17 United Center Chicago, IL
Big 12 March 13-16 Sprint Center Kansas City
Big West March 14-16 Honda Center Anaheim, CA
Colonial March 9-11 Richmond Coliseum Richmond, VA
CUSA (no bracket) March 13-16 BOK Center Tulsa, OK
Horizon League March 5,8,12 Campus Sites TBA
Ivy REGULAR SEASON CHAMPION RECEIVES AUTOMATIC NCAA BID
MAC March 11, 13-16 Quicken Loans Arena Cleveland, OH
MAAC March 7-11 MassMutual Center Springfield, MA
MEAC (no bracket) March 11-16 Norfolk Scope Arena Norfolk, VA
Missouri Valley March 7-10 Scottrade Center St. Louis, MO
Mountain West March 12-16 Thomas and Mack Center Las Vegas, NV
Northeast March 6, 9, 12 Campus Sites TBA
OhioValley March 6-9 Municipal Auditorium Nashville, TN
Pac-12 March 13-16 MGM Grand Garden Las Vegas, NV
Patriot League March 6, 9, 13 Campus Sites TBA
Southern Conference March 8-11 US Cellular Center Asheville, NC
Southeastern March 13-17 Bridgestone Arena Nashville, TN
Southland March 13-16 Merrell Center Katy, TX
Summit League March 9-12 Sioux Falls Arena Sioux Falls, SD
Sun Belt March 8-11 Summit Arena Hot Springs, AR
SWAC March 13, 15-16 Curtis Culwell Center Garland, TX
WAC March 12, 14-16 Orleans Arena Las Vegas, NV
West Coast March 6-11 Orleans Arena Las Vegas, NV
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Lockbox 2/16
It has been a light season over here at the Bracketboard. This stems from my "basketball time budget" being spent on coaching Kindergarteners the basics of the game. It has been a total joy. That said, the weekend bracket building has hit a wall. There will be more time in March, but for now, I will simply do the things that I think add to the giant bracket conversation.
There are loads of good bracket projections out there, so I'll work on more TBB-specific projects. So, here is the first Lockbox of the year. I am basing who is IN/OUT on the Bracket Project's Matrix, which is a consensus of dozens of bracket projections from across the Web. Time permitting, I will build the One Stop Shop again as well (all 30 conference tourney brackets in one Excel workbook, updated multiple times daily during conference tourney season).
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 16 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. There are none of those as of today, but there likely will be after this weekend. The black teams could miss in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss.
--I have nine other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
There are loads of good bracket projections out there, so I'll work on more TBB-specific projects. So, here is the first Lockbox of the year. I am basing who is IN/OUT on the Bracket Project's Matrix, which is a consensus of dozens of bracket projections from across the Web. Time permitting, I will build the One Stop Shop again as well (all 30 conference tourney brackets in one Excel workbook, updated multiple times daily during conference tourney season).
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 16 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. There are none of those as of today, but there likely will be after this weekend. The black teams could miss in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss.
--I have nine other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
Monday, December 31, 2012
End of 2012: State of the Sun Belt
The Sun Belt has a new commissioner (Karl Benson) and a number of exiting members (Denver is gone this year and more to follow in coming years), but the song pretty much remains the same.
1. Middle Tennessee harbors some slim at-large hopes, but preseason darling North Texas has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country. Those two, along with re-emerging WKU and South Alabama, were supposed to provide some strength at the top. That has mostly held up, except that North Texas was supposed to be in the national conversation and they have underachieved. The other three have pretty much held to form.
2. Teams have played four or less conference games, and only three teams have winning records: WKU (4-0), MTSU (2-0), and South Alabama (3-1). No team in the West is above water.
3. MTSU is far and away the best performing team according to the efficiency ratings. Their offense grades out at #88 and their defense checks in at a sparkling #22. The Raiders have that special combo of forcing a ton of turnovers (#9 nationally in TO%forced) and preventing 3-point accuracy (#20 best). Their offense and defense are the most effective units in the league. No other unit in the Belt is in the Top 100.
4. However, I don't think MTSU will run away by multiple games in the East. WKU has been severely hampered by injuries and have still managed to go 4-0 in league including two road wins and a win over North Texas. MTSU plays North Texas at home tonight, so they will have to beat the underachieving, but very dangerous, Mean Green to keep pace with WKU.
The major questions include:
1. Will MTSU once again falter late in the season?
2. Will North Texas eventually gel their considerable talent (clearly the best in the league)?
3. Will standard-bearer WKU get healthy and continue their "just win, baby" streak (now 10-0 in their last ten Belt games)?
4. Is there a dark horse in the bunch? Best bets, for my money, are USA and Arkansas State.
1. Middle Tennessee harbors some slim at-large hopes, but preseason darling North Texas has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country. Those two, along with re-emerging WKU and South Alabama, were supposed to provide some strength at the top. That has mostly held up, except that North Texas was supposed to be in the national conversation and they have underachieved. The other three have pretty much held to form.
2. Teams have played four or less conference games, and only three teams have winning records: WKU (4-0), MTSU (2-0), and South Alabama (3-1). No team in the West is above water.
3. MTSU is far and away the best performing team according to the efficiency ratings. Their offense grades out at #88 and their defense checks in at a sparkling #22. The Raiders have that special combo of forcing a ton of turnovers (#9 nationally in TO%forced) and preventing 3-point accuracy (#20 best). Their offense and defense are the most effective units in the league. No other unit in the Belt is in the Top 100.
4. However, I don't think MTSU will run away by multiple games in the East. WKU has been severely hampered by injuries and have still managed to go 4-0 in league including two road wins and a win over North Texas. MTSU plays North Texas at home tonight, so they will have to beat the underachieving, but very dangerous, Mean Green to keep pace with WKU.
The major questions include:
1. Will MTSU once again falter late in the season?
2. Will North Texas eventually gel their considerable talent (clearly the best in the league)?
3. Will standard-bearer WKU get healthy and continue their "just win, baby" streak (now 10-0 in their last ten Belt games)?
4. Is there a dark horse in the bunch? Best bets, for my money, are USA and Arkansas State.
Sunday, December 30, 2012
WKU 70, North Texas 64
EFFICIENCY
WKU 109.4
UNT 100.0
North Texas has been one of the biggest disappointments in the country so far this season. Super-forward Tony Mitchell is a likely lottery pick and the Mean Green are stacked with big, athletic guards. But, Mitchell has been disappointing at best, and completely non-existent at times as first year coach Tony Benford has not found the best way to gel this team to this point. Nevertheless, UNT is the most talented team in the league, and they would have a very impressive stretch of hoops in the second half.
They would need that great stretch, because the home-standing Toppers were out of our minds from deep early on, making 5-6 threes in the first five minutes. TJ Price, laboring with a ankle injury, got back to his old self by making all four of his treys. Big, lanky seven-foot center Teeng Akol put up eight threes on the night, which sounds insane, but made 3-8 (37.5%). That’s 9 points on 8 shots. That’s equivalent to shooting 56.3% on 2-point shots. The Tops were 9-19 (47.4%) as a team with the longball and that makes the Big Red 18-40 in our last two games. The hot shooting helped build a sizable 15-point lead at one point.
But, the Mean Green would answer with a glimpse of what they could be, namely, the best team in the Sun Belt. They went on a huge run fueled by relentless attacking of the goal in transition that brought them all the way back and even managed to take a one-point lead in the second half. But, the WKU defense tightened the screws, sophomore F George Fant went to work, and then walk-on freshman guard Percy Blade drilled 6-6 free throws in the last two minutes to keep North Texas at bay for the 70-64 win.
North Texas faces Middle Tennessee on Monday (12/31) while WKU embarks on the Arkansas road swing (UALR and Arkansas State) later next week.
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