As you can tell by the lack of textual characters over the last few days, the thrill is gone for TBB. When the bracket is whittled down to the big-money teams (Xavier and Gonzaga are slightly less big money, but still...), as a fan, I care less. I am MUCH more into the stories and trials of teams like Morehead State, WKU, and Siena than I am who has enough future NBA players to cut down the nets. Heck, even comeback stories like Michigan intrigue me more than another year of Pitino, Coach K, UNC, and the usual suspects. I still enjoy the high-level basketball, but I'm not sure what I can add to the cacaphony at this stage.
That said, it is still the national championship! And, there are only two weekends left. Soak it in, for high humidity, BBQs, and unrelenting Yankee/Sawks storylines are coming. Well, not for me. I'll be busy trying to drum up support for Project Mockingbird, counting down the days til hoops practice and Blue Ribbon Yearbook, and whipping myself into a frenzy over WKU's stacked team next season.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Friday, March 20, 2009
NOT an Upset
WKU beat Illinois. I was not surprised. Most die-hard hoops fans probably were not surprised, either. They won the way they have won 16 of their last 18: sticky D, winning the boards, and grit. All five starters scored in double figures and all played massive roles in the win. It's what they do. Zags are up next in a much tougher match up for this Topper team.
TONS of stories out there. You can read some them here, here, here, and here. Go to nearly any sports sight and see a Hilltopper on the front page.
TONS of stories out there. You can read some them here, here, here, and here. Go to nearly any sports sight and see a Hilltopper on the front page.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Game Day
No more bracketizing or lockboxing. No more One-Stopping. No more throwing dishes against the wall while listening to that hated (enter your most hated TV talking head or radio host). It's time for the national championship.
It's game day, and it starts at 11.20 AM CST with an 8/9 doozy in LSU/Butler: Power Conference regular season champ versus Mid-Major Powerhouse in a game the committee seeded as a virtual draw. Fifteen other games follow.
My team, the WKU Hilltoppers, meet Illinois in the night cap at 8.55 PM CST. The Illini will be without G Chester Frazier, their defensive engine.
I don't post my picks publically. Only my family (and maybe my students) sees those, as they will not judge me for picking WKU all the way or picking them to lose. I have made bracket picks for 24 straight years or so and it's a rite of Spring for me. But, it is usually done with my family on the couch in good fun. Nowadays, with the distance from the couch too great for all of us to meet easily, we use the newfangled World Wide Web (the internet, they call it) to have a family bracket group.
Enjoy the day. Storylines, overtimes, glory and heartbreak await.
It's game day, and it starts at 11.20 AM CST with an 8/9 doozy in LSU/Butler: Power Conference regular season champ versus Mid-Major Powerhouse in a game the committee seeded as a virtual draw. Fifteen other games follow.
My team, the WKU Hilltoppers, meet Illinois in the night cap at 8.55 PM CST. The Illini will be without G Chester Frazier, their defensive engine.
I don't post my picks publically. Only my family (and maybe my students) sees those, as they will not judge me for picking WKU all the way or picking them to lose. I have made bracket picks for 24 straight years or so and it's a rite of Spring for me. But, it is usually done with my family on the couch in good fun. Nowadays, with the distance from the couch too great for all of us to meet easily, we use the newfangled World Wide Web (the internet, they call it) to have a family bracket group.
Enjoy the day. Storylines, overtimes, glory and heartbreak await.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
On "Bracketology"
Technically, I guess the term "bracketology" is accurate, as "-ology" means "study of a branch of knowledge." "Bracketologists" do study the bracket, its history, its patterns, and its rules and regs (more accurately, its principles and precedures). But, in our culture, it also connotes "science" or a an academic discipline, and this is certainly not what "bracketology" is or does. Major media types build up their in-house bracketologists to be some sort of mathematics guru with access to formulas and complex equations that mere mortals cannot comprehend. It's just not true. Truth be told, "bracketology" is more art than science. It's more like picking the right job candidate from resumes/interviews than solving algebraic equations or using the scientific method to discover which teams are best.
Even the RPI is basic math. No one has to "solve" anything. It's a simple formula: win % x .25 [road wins weighted value is 1.4, home wins are 0.6], opponents' win % x .50, opponents' opponents' win % x .25. Add those three values. That's it. Beyond that, there is no math to be done. And the RPI is available in umpteen (technical math term) different forms online and is updated by the minute, or at least every day. Bracketologists do not even have to do the math that is involved.
When Joe Fan asks me, "How do you get the teams right?" my answer is this: 1) I've been doing this awhile, 2) I read the selection critieria, and 3) I've done the committee process five times. I understand what the committee aims to do. But, scientific it's not. Individual bracketologists are much more about trying to guess what a group of ten humans will do and there are always unknowns and quirks. Each committee differs a little in where it places its emphasis. Some years, finishing strong seems to matter more than in other years. This year, committee chair Mike Slive's magic phrase was "full body of work." This helps explain how Arizona got in (good early wins). It also explains how they were picked over Creighton and San Diego State, who were red hot teams before losing in their conference tourneys. Every committee is different. Knowing this also allows me to stay calm on Selection Sunday when the committee does not do what I think it "should."
If we must stick with the term "bracketology," then we must at least understand that this "science" is more like a TV meteorologist or economics columnist than chemist or mathemetician. Meteorology studies the "rules" of weather, and can get decent results predicting it, but it's far from exact. There is too much variation in natural weather patterns. Economics can use past and current trends and history to forecast the rise and fall of economic markets, but it is nowhere near exact in its prognostications. "Bracketology" is like that. We can study history and patterns of past committees and there are some constants, but projections and predictions are attempting to speak for a long, complex process performed by ten humans. I do think it's valuable because it helps me keep up with all conferences and the more I participate in the process, the better I understand it.
But, I have never mistaken myself for a scientist. Bracketology is a lot more about learning the process than it is "getting the bracket right." That's a fun game, but it's not the primary reason for doing it. The primary reason should be to better understand how our national championship bracket is birthed.
Even the RPI is basic math. No one has to "solve" anything. It's a simple formula: win % x .25 [road wins weighted value is 1.4, home wins are 0.6], opponents' win % x .50, opponents' opponents' win % x .25. Add those three values. That's it. Beyond that, there is no math to be done. And the RPI is available in umpteen (technical math term) different forms online and is updated by the minute, or at least every day. Bracketologists do not even have to do the math that is involved.
When Joe Fan asks me, "How do you get the teams right?" my answer is this: 1) I've been doing this awhile, 2) I read the selection critieria, and 3) I've done the committee process five times. I understand what the committee aims to do. But, scientific it's not. Individual bracketologists are much more about trying to guess what a group of ten humans will do and there are always unknowns and quirks. Each committee differs a little in where it places its emphasis. Some years, finishing strong seems to matter more than in other years. This year, committee chair Mike Slive's magic phrase was "full body of work." This helps explain how Arizona got in (good early wins). It also explains how they were picked over Creighton and San Diego State, who were red hot teams before losing in their conference tourneys. Every committee is different. Knowing this also allows me to stay calm on Selection Sunday when the committee does not do what I think it "should."
If we must stick with the term "bracketology," then we must at least understand that this "science" is more like a TV meteorologist or economics columnist than chemist or mathemetician. Meteorology studies the "rules" of weather, and can get decent results predicting it, but it's far from exact. There is too much variation in natural weather patterns. Economics can use past and current trends and history to forecast the rise and fall of economic markets, but it is nowhere near exact in its prognostications. "Bracketology" is like that. We can study history and patterns of past committees and there are some constants, but projections and predictions are attempting to speak for a long, complex process performed by ten humans. I do think it's valuable because it helps me keep up with all conferences and the more I participate in the process, the better I understand it.
But, I have never mistaken myself for a scientist. Bracketology is a lot more about learning the process than it is "getting the bracket right." That's a fun game, but it's not the primary reason for doing it. The primary reason should be to better understand how our national championship bracket is birthed.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Project Mockingbird
I would like to take the next couple of days to talk about "bracketology", it's purpose, and it's usefulness (?). Today, I want to focus on the mock committee experience and urge you to get out of the Lunardi Bubble and do the process.
My bracket projections are largely based on my mock committee experiences. I have been doing bracket projections since 1998, but 2002 was the real "Hallelujah Moment for" me. Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com asked for volunteers/resumes to participate in a mock selection committee for the 01-02 season. I applied as the WKU "AD" and was selected to participate. We did all votes by email and all discussions on Yahoo! chat. No amount reading what I write or listening to "experts" is ever going to teach you as much as participating the process. It changed everything for me and for the folks on the SCKySSiP.
After that experience, I saw the formerly pseudo-evil, biased, mid-major-hating committee for what they are: a group of humans charged with a difficult task and destined to disappoint some teams and their fan bases. There is no such thing as a "perfect" bracket. Creighton, St. Mary's, Auburn, Providence, and San Diego State are bummin' today. But, it could have just as easily been Dayton, Maryland, or Arizona's fans. And swapping out any of those teams would not have made the bracket any more perfect or just.
The reason for this is because the committee does not choose teams in talks over brandy and cigars. It is done through a relentless series of votes based on what teams have done in their "full body of work" (phrase copyright Mike Slive, 2009). In fact, it's ENTIRELY possible that no committee member had Arizona "in" on their personal S-curve (list of 65 teams) and yet have the Wildcats get into the final bracket. How?
Let's say the committee is voting to add two teams to the bracket and it turns out that these are the last two teams IN (not that they would necessarily know this at the time--SCKySSiP certainly did not know that Dayton would be bumped by Miss State when we voted them IN). And, let's say three of the members ballots look like this:
Dayton, San Diego State, Arizona, Creighton, St. Mary's
Dayton, Creighton, Arizona, San Diego State, St. Mary's
Dayton, St. Mary's, Arizona, San Diego State, Creighton
In these lists of five (assigned point values of 1-5), Dayton has 3 points, SD State has 10, Arizona has 9, St. Mary's 12, and Creighton has 11. So, even though none of the three members have Arizona technically "IN" on their individual S-curve, Dayton and Arizona have the lowest vote totals and would go IN. Collectively, Arizona is #2 on this list.
Understanding this helps debunk the idea that some single member with an agenda can skew things disproportionately (nevermind the fact that they cannot participate in votes involving their own school). If there is any perceived unfairness or injustice toward "mid-majors," it's more the result of imbalanced budgets and scheduling than committee bias.
So, next season on TBB, let us start "Project Mockingbird." Let's get as many people as possible to replicate this process, not by guessing what the committee will do (which is fun, but amounts to guesswork, especially at the bottom), but by DOING the process with a group of people just like the actual committtee does and seeing what results. It is an exercise in tedium, voting, argumentation, voting, evaluation, voting, tedium, discussion, fun, voting, and numbers. You must read complex rules and regs, and orchestrate smooth voting procedures. You will need people who will commit to watching lots of games and join you in this mad process which has nothing to do with a beautiful pick-n-roll, intense full-court defense, an oily-smooth shooting stroke, or boxing out. It has everything to do with RPI, bracketing rules, pod assignments, and lower-level math. It can still be fun, but when it's over, you will be glad. I think I can speak for the SCKySSiP in that regard. We have a blast doing it, but by the 4,593rd vote, you are ready for it to be over. And you still have to assign pods!
I am not a champion of "bracketology" or the selection process. But, it is the system we have and it does birth The Bracket--the greatest championship in sports. For all it's flaws and soul-stripping resume evaluation, it is OUR process. So, I immerse myself in it not because it is perfect or righteous, but because it is the process used to create the championship tournament and should be understood by fans who care about it.
This is a call to do it. Anyone can slap together 65 teams and make a guess. It's good fun and it keeps me in touch with all 31 conferences. I love that about the Lockbox and bracket projections. But, next season, go the distance, put together a committee, and do the process. I guarantee that you will learn a lot and gain a new appreciation for the actual committee. I warn you that unless you keep the proper perspective, it can darken your soul. But, for me, engaging in the tedium only bright lines the goodness of the game bewteen the lines on the court. "Bracketology" is fun--but it's not basketball. Immersing myself in the selection process only heightens my appreciation for the sights, sounds, smells, and energy of watching my Hilltoppers in Diddle Arena and for a well-executed backdoor cut.
"Bracketology" should not be about how many teams you can "get right." Again, that's a fun game that I play pretty well, but it does not do much in the way of helping me or anyone else understand the committee process. Like just about anything else, the best way to learn and understand is to do it. So, here is a link the selection criteria. Read it (it's best in small chunks lest you lose your soul), find some other insane fans, and plan on doing it next season with the goal being understanding, NOT guesswork.
After that experience, I saw the formerly pseudo-evil, biased, mid-major-hating committee for what they are: a group of humans charged with a difficult task and destined to disappoint some teams and their fan bases. There is no such thing as a "perfect" bracket. Creighton, St. Mary's, Auburn, Providence, and San Diego State are bummin' today. But, it could have just as easily been Dayton, Maryland, or Arizona's fans. And swapping out any of those teams would not have made the bracket any more perfect or just.
The reason for this is because the committee does not choose teams in talks over brandy and cigars. It is done through a relentless series of votes based on what teams have done in their "full body of work" (phrase copyright Mike Slive, 2009). In fact, it's ENTIRELY possible that no committee member had Arizona "in" on their personal S-curve (list of 65 teams) and yet have the Wildcats get into the final bracket. How?
Let's say the committee is voting to add two teams to the bracket and it turns out that these are the last two teams IN (not that they would necessarily know this at the time--SCKySSiP certainly did not know that Dayton would be bumped by Miss State when we voted them IN). And, let's say three of the members ballots look like this:
Dayton, San Diego State, Arizona, Creighton, St. Mary's
Dayton, Creighton, Arizona, San Diego State, St. Mary's
Dayton, St. Mary's, Arizona, San Diego State, Creighton
In these lists of five (assigned point values of 1-5), Dayton has 3 points, SD State has 10, Arizona has 9, St. Mary's 12, and Creighton has 11. So, even though none of the three members have Arizona technically "IN" on their individual S-curve, Dayton and Arizona have the lowest vote totals and would go IN. Collectively, Arizona is #2 on this list.
Understanding this helps debunk the idea that some single member with an agenda can skew things disproportionately (nevermind the fact that they cannot participate in votes involving their own school). If there is any perceived unfairness or injustice toward "mid-majors," it's more the result of imbalanced budgets and scheduling than committee bias.
So, next season on TBB, let us start "Project Mockingbird." Let's get as many people as possible to replicate this process, not by guessing what the committee will do (which is fun, but amounts to guesswork, especially at the bottom), but by DOING the process with a group of people just like the actual committtee does and seeing what results. It is an exercise in tedium, voting, argumentation, voting, evaluation, voting, tedium, discussion, fun, voting, and numbers. You must read complex rules and regs, and orchestrate smooth voting procedures. You will need people who will commit to watching lots of games and join you in this mad process which has nothing to do with a beautiful pick-n-roll, intense full-court defense, an oily-smooth shooting stroke, or boxing out. It has everything to do with RPI, bracketing rules, pod assignments, and lower-level math. It can still be fun, but when it's over, you will be glad. I think I can speak for the SCKySSiP in that regard. We have a blast doing it, but by the 4,593rd vote, you are ready for it to be over. And you still have to assign pods!
I am not a champion of "bracketology" or the selection process. But, it is the system we have and it does birth The Bracket--the greatest championship in sports. For all it's flaws and soul-stripping resume evaluation, it is OUR process. So, I immerse myself in it not because it is perfect or righteous, but because it is the process used to create the championship tournament and should be understood by fans who care about it.
This is a call to do it. Anyone can slap together 65 teams and make a guess. It's good fun and it keeps me in touch with all 31 conferences. I love that about the Lockbox and bracket projections. But, next season, go the distance, put together a committee, and do the process. I guarantee that you will learn a lot and gain a new appreciation for the actual committee. I warn you that unless you keep the proper perspective, it can darken your soul. But, for me, engaging in the tedium only bright lines the goodness of the game bewteen the lines on the court. "Bracketology" is fun--but it's not basketball. Immersing myself in the selection process only heightens my appreciation for the sights, sounds, smells, and energy of watching my Hilltoppers in Diddle Arena and for a well-executed backdoor cut.
"Bracketology" should not be about how many teams you can "get right." Again, that's a fun game that I play pretty well, but it does not do much in the way of helping me or anyone else understand the committee process. Like just about anything else, the best way to learn and understand is to do it. So, here is a link the selection criteria. Read it (it's best in small chunks lest you lose your soul), find some other insane fans, and plan on doing it next season with the goal being understanding, NOT guesswork.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Rant-Free
If this committee had taken St. Mary's or Creighton or San Diego State instead of Arizona, I would have practically no qualms. While Zona was pretty far away in my mind (5th or 6th OUT), they did beat San Diego State, Gonzaga, and Kansas in the non-conference (all at home, though). However, their best roadie was Oregon State and they played ONE true road game in the non-conference (a loss at Texas A&M). They ended with 5/6 losses, too.
That said, all teams vying for those last few slots were flawed, so no rant here. The committee is made up of 10 humans who take this very seriously and did a good job following the criteria otherwise. They obviously saw something in Arizona that most of us did not.
Beyond that, I was a little suprised that Wisconsin was a 12. Selection committee chair Mike Slive noted that the Badgers had to be moved due to "P&P" (principles and procedures), but even an 11 seems low for Wiscy.
Otherwise, no realm beef from me. I think Michigan State's resume is underappreciated, but I understand why they are a 2. They don't look as good as UConn.
Tomorrow: a fleshing out of the SCKySSiP Mock Committee process.
Wednesday: an essay on "bracketology."
That said, all teams vying for those last few slots were flawed, so no rant here. The committee is made up of 10 humans who take this very seriously and did a good job following the criteria otherwise. They obviously saw something in Arizona that most of us did not.
Beyond that, I was a little suprised that Wisconsin was a 12. Selection committee chair Mike Slive noted that the Badgers had to be moved due to "P&P" (principles and procedures), but even an 11 seems low for Wiscy.
Otherwise, no realm beef from me. I think Michigan State's resume is underappreciated, but I understand why they are a 2. They don't look as good as UConn.
Tomorrow: a fleshing out of the SCKySSiP Mock Committee process.
Wednesday: an essay on "bracketology."
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Snap Reaction
A pretty good job by the committee given the criteria. Arizona IN is a puzzler to me, but the committee obviously valued heavy-hitting wins and Zona had some of those. That was my only miss. I had San Diego State in for them.
I missed Wisconsin by 3 seed lines. I missed 9 others by two. That means I had 55/65 exact or within one line if my quick count is accurate.
More tomorrow. I am taking tonight to savor WKU's 12-seed and draw against a team I think they match up pretty well with in Illinois.
Full SCKySSiP report tomorrow, too.
I missed Wisconsin by 3 seed lines. I missed 9 others by two. That means I had 55/65 exact or within one line if my quick count is accurate.
More tomorrow. I am taking tonight to savor WKU's 12-seed and draw against a team I think they match up pretty well with in Illinois.
Full SCKySSiP report tomorrow, too.
Final Bracket
Here is my final bracket.
1. I am in the tiny minority of folks who believe Michigan State will get that last one seed. Here's why. The Spartans won the #2 RPI league by FOUR full games. FOUR. Yes, they lost in their conference quarters. So did UConn. They are #5 RPI (UConn #8). They have 13 top 50 wins (UConn 8). OOC, they beat Kansas at home and Oklahoma State and Texas on neutral courts. UConn beat Gonzaga, Michigan and Wisconsin. Pretty similar there. UConn won neither their regular season or conference titles; Sparty won the Big Televen convincingly. It's very close in mind. I considered Memphis, but they just don't have the juice in their wins. Not enough good ones.
2. Mississippi State forced me to cut Creighton. SD State and Maryland have a much more positive aura from their conference tourneys. The Jays were blasted by 24 by Illinois State.
3. Last Four IN: Minnesota, Maryland, Dayton, San Diego State. First Four OUT: Creighton, St. Mary's, Penn State, Auburn
SCKySSiP Mock Selection Committee
Final Results
1. Three one seeds from the Big East. I obviously didn't vote that way, but that was the way the collective voting shook out.
2. Mississippi State's win cut Dayton here.
3. Last Four IN: San Diego State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Creighton. Next Two OUT: Dayton, St. Mary's. That's really as far as our voting got us. After that, it was a hodge-podge of the usual suspects with a smattering of votes (Auburn, Florida, Virginia Tech, Penn State...).
Once more, the SCKySSiP is a replication of the process, not a prediction of what the committee will do (what "bracketologists" do). We didn't give a flip about what the committee will do. This was DOING, not guessing. We simply followed their rules in an effort to understand how this bracket is created. Essay coming later this week on "bracketology."
40 mins away. This is my last update before it comes out.
1. I am in the tiny minority of folks who believe Michigan State will get that last one seed. Here's why. The Spartans won the #2 RPI league by FOUR full games. FOUR. Yes, they lost in their conference quarters. So did UConn. They are #5 RPI (UConn #8). They have 13 top 50 wins (UConn 8). OOC, they beat Kansas at home and Oklahoma State and Texas on neutral courts. UConn beat Gonzaga, Michigan and Wisconsin. Pretty similar there. UConn won neither their regular season or conference titles; Sparty won the Big Televen convincingly. It's very close in mind. I considered Memphis, but they just don't have the juice in their wins. Not enough good ones.
2. Mississippi State forced me to cut Creighton. SD State and Maryland have a much more positive aura from their conference tourneys. The Jays were blasted by 24 by Illinois State.
3. Last Four IN: Minnesota, Maryland, Dayton, San Diego State. First Four OUT: Creighton, St. Mary's, Penn State, Auburn
SCKySSiP Mock Selection Committee
Final Results
1. Three one seeds from the Big East. I obviously didn't vote that way, but that was the way the collective voting shook out.
2. Mississippi State's win cut Dayton here.
3. Last Four IN: San Diego State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Creighton. Next Two OUT: Dayton, St. Mary's. That's really as far as our voting got us. After that, it was a hodge-podge of the usual suspects with a smattering of votes (Auburn, Florida, Virginia Tech, Penn State...).
Once more, the SCKySSiP is a replication of the process, not a prediction of what the committee will do (what "bracketologists" do). We didn't give a flip about what the committee will do. This was DOING, not guessing. We simply followed their rules in an effort to understand how this bracket is created. Essay coming later this week on "bracketology."
40 mins away. This is my last update before it comes out.
(Semi) Final Bracket
Here is my (semi) final bracket. There is of course a contingency in case Mississippi State wins today. And, I'm not totally settled on a couple of seeds. I currently have Michigan State as the last 1-seed with UNC, Pitt, and Louisville. It may be UConn before the day is done. The Spartans won the #1 RPI league by two full games and have more top 50 wins than UConn. They both lost early than they had hoped in the conference tourney.
Here is the final SCKySSiP Mock Committee results. This is what our 9-person committee came up with by replicating the process.
More later on that.
Here is the final SCKySSiP Mock Committee results. This is what our 9-person committee came up with by replicating the process.
More later on that.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
SCKySSiP Complete/Final Lockbox
It's late, but we're done. We have been voting, voting, voting, voting, voting since 3 pm today and the debate regarding the 1-seeds and the last slots was passionate. Remember, what our nine-member SCKySSiP team has done is replicate the process, NOT predict what the committee will do. There is a big difference. We don't care one iota what the committee thinks or does. We merely followed the rules as best we could and did the process to the best of our ability. That's much different than me or one of a gazillion other people trying to guess what the committee will do.
I will post the SCKySSiP bracket in the morning, but I can give you this much:
1 seeds: North Carolina, Pitt, Louisville, UConn (MUCH discussion of Michigan State and little for Memphis)
Last Four IN: San Diego State, Maryland, Creighton, Dayton. If Mississippi State beats Tennessee tomorrow, Dayton goes OUT.
I have updated the OSS. And, I will post my personal final projection tomorrow before the bracket comes out. I have updated the Lockbox, and I don't think I'll change my mind on who gets IN.
There are 4 Bubble slots in my mind and Maryland, Dayton, San Diego State, and Creighton have those in that order. If Mississippi State wins tomorrow, Creighton goes OUT. I will not be stunned to see Arizona, Florida, Penn State, Auburn, or St. Mary's in place of one of my last four IN. South Carolina or UNLV would raise my eyebrows, but I wouldn't fall over. It just depends on what this committee values. They are humans, and they are making complex decisions, not ones based solely on cold numbers.
That said, anyone else other than the teams listed above will shock me. Or, if someone not in those last four OUT gets left at home, I will be quite surprised.
Final version of my bracket and SCKySSiP results tomorrow.
I will post the SCKySSiP bracket in the morning, but I can give you this much:
1 seeds: North Carolina, Pitt, Louisville, UConn (MUCH discussion of Michigan State and little for Memphis)
Last Four IN: San Diego State, Maryland, Creighton, Dayton. If Mississippi State beats Tennessee tomorrow, Dayton goes OUT.
I have updated the OSS. And, I will post my personal final projection tomorrow before the bracket comes out. I have updated the Lockbox, and I don't think I'll change my mind on who gets IN.
There are 4 Bubble slots in my mind and Maryland, Dayton, San Diego State, and Creighton have those in that order. If Mississippi State wins tomorrow, Creighton goes OUT. I will not be stunned to see Arizona, Florida, Penn State, Auburn, or St. Mary's in place of one of my last four IN. South Carolina or UNLV would raise my eyebrows, but I wouldn't fall over. It just depends on what this committee values. They are humans, and they are making complex decisions, not ones based solely on cold numbers.
That said, anyone else other than the teams listed above will shock me. Or, if someone not in those last four OUT gets left at home, I will be quite surprised.
Final version of my bracket and SCKySSiP results tomorrow.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Saturday Landscape
The OSS is up to date.
The SCKySSiP Mock Committee is rockin' along. We meet for our marathon session of hammering out the last few at-larges, seeding teams, and setting up Sunday contingencies all day tomorrow. I will post the fruits of our labor late tomorrow or early on Sunday.
Another bid went off the board today, as Temple and Duquesne (that's doo-KAYN for the unitiated) took out A10 faves Xavier and Dayton, respectively. Xavier is obviously IN. I moved the Flyers onto the Bubble as they sputtered a bit late, suffering some puzzling losses. They will have to sweat it out on Sunday. But, it did not cost them their bid in the Lockbox for the time being. It cost Florida. Not only is the Gators' profile spotty, but they simply have not looked like a tourney team in the times I have seen them. They go OUT, leaving the SEC with just two. More on that momentarily.
It is good seeing some teams roar late. Maryland has really helped themselves. Ohio State is now a lock. Tulsa and Auburn are doing everything they can. Southern Cal is rising from the ashes.
All that said, there are a number of scenarios that could result in erased available bids. In fact, by my count, the max number is seven. Here's a list to watch for results that could reduce the number of Bubble bids. Some of these are long shots, but some are feasible or have even already occurred (A10).
Saturday
San Diego State vs Utah (MtWest Final). I like the Aztecs to get IN even if they lose, barring too many bids disappearing. But, their success means another Bubble team gets cut. The Bubble is rooting for Utah.
Tulsa vs Memphis (CUSA Final). Bubble Nation will break out their vintage Keith Lee jerseys and cheer for the Tigers.
Temple vs Duquesne (A10 Final). As mentioned above, this has already cut one. Remember what TBB said about the Owls WAAAAYYY back on December 18? Road warriors are they.
Baylor vs Missouri (Big 12 Final). The Bears are playing like the team we expected back in November. A Baylor wins steals another one from the Bubblers.
Utah State at Nevada (WAC Final). If the Aggies lose, it puts a highly regarded team on the Bubble. It's crowded enough without adding a 28-5 team to the mix. And this game is on Nevada's home court.
Southern Cal vs Arizona State (Pac 10 Final). USC has played their way back into the mix, and will swipe another Bubble bid if they hold on tonight and win tomorrow. Even if they lose, they will certainly be in the AL convo.
Sunday
SEC Final Four. Back to the SEC. Their final four is quite intriguing. Tennessee and LSU have been known NCAA teams for quite some time. Auburn found its mojo in early Feb and has went 10-1 since. Mississippi State has won four straight and has the talent to win this thing. If one of the two upstarts win it, it takes another bid off the board. And it ensures that the SEC sends at least three teams.
The SCKySSiP Mock Committee is rockin' along. We meet for our marathon session of hammering out the last few at-larges, seeding teams, and setting up Sunday contingencies all day tomorrow. I will post the fruits of our labor late tomorrow or early on Sunday.
Another bid went off the board today, as Temple and Duquesne (that's doo-KAYN for the unitiated) took out A10 faves Xavier and Dayton, respectively. Xavier is obviously IN. I moved the Flyers onto the Bubble as they sputtered a bit late, suffering some puzzling losses. They will have to sweat it out on Sunday. But, it did not cost them their bid in the Lockbox for the time being. It cost Florida. Not only is the Gators' profile spotty, but they simply have not looked like a tourney team in the times I have seen them. They go OUT, leaving the SEC with just two. More on that momentarily.
It is good seeing some teams roar late. Maryland has really helped themselves. Ohio State is now a lock. Tulsa and Auburn are doing everything they can. Southern Cal is rising from the ashes.
All that said, there are a number of scenarios that could result in erased available bids. In fact, by my count, the max number is seven. Here's a list to watch for results that could reduce the number of Bubble bids. Some of these are long shots, but some are feasible or have even already occurred (A10).
Saturday
San Diego State vs Utah (MtWest Final). I like the Aztecs to get IN even if they lose, barring too many bids disappearing. But, their success means another Bubble team gets cut. The Bubble is rooting for Utah.
Tulsa vs Memphis (CUSA Final). Bubble Nation will break out their vintage Keith Lee jerseys and cheer for the Tigers.
Temple vs Duquesne (A10 Final). As mentioned above, this has already cut one. Remember what TBB said about the Owls WAAAAYYY back on December 18? Road warriors are they.
Baylor vs Missouri (Big 12 Final). The Bears are playing like the team we expected back in November. A Baylor wins steals another one from the Bubblers.
Utah State at Nevada (WAC Final). If the Aggies lose, it puts a highly regarded team on the Bubble. It's crowded enough without adding a 28-5 team to the mix. And this game is on Nevada's home court.
Southern Cal vs Arizona State (Pac 10 Final). USC has played their way back into the mix, and will swipe another Bubble bid if they hold on tonight and win tomorrow. Even if they lose, they will certainly be in the AL convo.
Sunday
SEC Final Four. Back to the SEC. Their final four is quite intriguing. Tennessee and LSU have been known NCAA teams for quite some time. Auburn found its mojo in early Feb and has went 10-1 since. Mississippi State has won four straight and has the talent to win this thing. If one of the two upstarts win it, it takes another bid off the board. And it ensures that the SEC sends at least three teams.
Bracket Update 3/13
Updated bracket went like this at the bottom: Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Creighton, Florida, Maryland, and San Diego State IN and South Carolina, Arizona, Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Southern Cal, UNLV, Auburn, and Providence OUT. There were others on the board, but those are the ones I labored over.
Big 1-seed shake-ups, too. Today, it's North Carolina, Michigan State, Pitt, and Louisville.
Kentucky just gave up the ghost against LSU (I LOCKed the Tigers). A .500 record in the weak SEC, an RPI in the 70s, 4-8 in last 12, and generally not looking very good is not a profile of hope. If they miss (and it seems nearly certain), it will end a streak of 17 straight NCAAs (#3 longest currently). Oddly enough, the #1 streak is in jeopardy at Arizona, too. #2 Kansas' streak is safe.
VA Tech is definitely in the conversation, but they missed a golden opportunity to get UNC without Lawson.
Minnesota is Bubble, but seems to be on the good side right now. The Wisconsin/Ohio State has to be in good shape and even the loser is likely going.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State
Big East (7): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (4): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, San Diego State
SEC (3): LSU, Tennessee, Florida
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, Creighton
Horizon (2): Cleveland State, Butler
Big 1-seed shake-ups, too. Today, it's North Carolina, Michigan State, Pitt, and Louisville.
Kentucky just gave up the ghost against LSU (I LOCKed the Tigers). A .500 record in the weak SEC, an RPI in the 70s, 4-8 in last 12, and generally not looking very good is not a profile of hope. If they miss (and it seems nearly certain), it will end a streak of 17 straight NCAAs (#3 longest currently). Oddly enough, the #1 streak is in jeopardy at Arizona, too. #2 Kansas' streak is safe.
VA Tech is definitely in the conversation, but they missed a golden opportunity to get UNC without Lawson.
Minnesota is Bubble, but seems to be on the good side right now. The Wisconsin/Ohio State has to be in good shape and even the loser is likely going.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State
Big East (7): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (4): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, San Diego State
SEC (3): LSU, Tennessee, Florida
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, Creighton
Horizon (2): Cleveland State, Butler
Friday Landscape
Bracket radio talk on 1340 AM The Ticket in Bowling Green today at 5 pm CT.
If I had known that The Cuse and UConn were going to play SIX (!) overtimes, I would have taken a nap and then awakened to watch the end instead of losing my battle with sleep in a commercial break somewhere in the middle of those OT's. WOW.
Lockbox Changes
--Oklahoma State has done enough. They are IN.
--I swapped New Mexico OUT and San Diego State IN. That may be temporary, as I will do a full bracket update later today. The Lobos finished strong, but lost to Wyoming last night. That's not a terrible sin, but their lack of success away from home coupled with their inability to take care of a first-round opponent on a neutral court really hurts the Lobos.
--3/4 of the Big Ten Bubble Boys won, so that league still has 8 teams very much in play and I'm pretty confident all 8 will be in the bracket update later.
Hurtin'
--I mentioned New Mexico, but MtWest mate UNLV lost on their home court to a fellow Bubbler from their own conference. San Diego State finished two games ahead of them in the regular season, is now nearly 30 slots in front of them in the RPI, and beat them in the conference tourney. UNLV also finished by losing 4/6. They had a good season, but probably not good enough to overcome all that.
--Arizona needed a win. They turn in their resume having lost 5/6 to close.
--Rhode Island gave way to Duquesne. They follow their red-hot stretch in February by losing home to UMass and neutral to Duquesne. That kills.
BIG Day
--All four SEC Bubble teams are in action today. Auburn and Florida play one another; Kentucky gets LSU; South Carolina faces Mississippi State. Every team on that list except LSU feels like they MUST win. Should make for high drama.
--Big Ten is in a similar state. All the games are quite meaningful, although most of the Big Ten Bubble Boys have a little more room for error.
--ACC has Maryland and VA Tech playing for their lives with BC trying to seal a bid vs Duke.
--San Diego State could really make a push with a win over BYU.
--Temple makes a stand vs Xavier in a must win for the Owls.
If I had known that The Cuse and UConn were going to play SIX (!) overtimes, I would have taken a nap and then awakened to watch the end instead of losing my battle with sleep in a commercial break somewhere in the middle of those OT's. WOW.
Lockbox Changes
--Oklahoma State has done enough. They are IN.
--I swapped New Mexico OUT and San Diego State IN. That may be temporary, as I will do a full bracket update later today. The Lobos finished strong, but lost to Wyoming last night. That's not a terrible sin, but their lack of success away from home coupled with their inability to take care of a first-round opponent on a neutral court really hurts the Lobos.
--3/4 of the Big Ten Bubble Boys won, so that league still has 8 teams very much in play and I'm pretty confident all 8 will be in the bracket update later.
Hurtin'
--I mentioned New Mexico, but MtWest mate UNLV lost on their home court to a fellow Bubbler from their own conference. San Diego State finished two games ahead of them in the regular season, is now nearly 30 slots in front of them in the RPI, and beat them in the conference tourney. UNLV also finished by losing 4/6. They had a good season, but probably not good enough to overcome all that.
--Arizona needed a win. They turn in their resume having lost 5/6 to close.
--Rhode Island gave way to Duquesne. They follow their red-hot stretch in February by losing home to UMass and neutral to Duquesne. That kills.
BIG Day
--All four SEC Bubble teams are in action today. Auburn and Florida play one another; Kentucky gets LSU; South Carolina faces Mississippi State. Every team on that list except LSU feels like they MUST win. Should make for high drama.
--Big Ten is in a similar state. All the games are quite meaningful, although most of the Big Ten Bubble Boys have a little more room for error.
--ACC has Maryland and VA Tech playing for their lives with BC trying to seal a bid vs Duke.
--San Diego State could really make a push with a win over BYU.
--Temple makes a stand vs Xavier in a must win for the Owls.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Thursday Updates
2.40 pm
--Northwestern is probably stuck as a "near miss" after losing handily to Minnesota.
--Kentucky came through in a must win. They need more, though.
--Providence will sweat for three days after bowing out to BEast 1-seed Louisville.
--Kansas cost themselves a seed line or two with a loss to the 9-seed in their own conference.
--Michigan and Temple have built huge leads at half. VA Tech also TCB vs Miami-FL, who will lobby and hope but is likely NITting. Xavier cruised over SLU as well.
--Villanova is looking to secure that high seed and is +16 on Marquette, who just hasn't been the same without James. They could slip into a dreaded 8/9 game if they don't make a comeback here.
--MtWest #1 BYU has not been able to shake Air Force, and in fact is down 3 at half.
--Currently, Clemson is -9 vs last-place ACC GA Tech (9 mins left to play). A loss to the Jackets would be costly given their sputtering finish.
--Northwestern is probably stuck as a "near miss" after losing handily to Minnesota.
--Kentucky came through in a must win. They need more, though.
--Providence will sweat for three days after bowing out to BEast 1-seed Louisville.
--Kansas cost themselves a seed line or two with a loss to the 9-seed in their own conference.
--Michigan and Temple have built huge leads at half. VA Tech also TCB vs Miami-FL, who will lobby and hope but is likely NITting. Xavier cruised over SLU as well.
--Villanova is looking to secure that high seed and is +16 on Marquette, who just hasn't been the same without James. They could slip into a dreaded 8/9 game if they don't make a comeback here.
--MtWest #1 BYU has not been able to shake Air Force, and in fact is down 3 at half.
--Currently, Clemson is -9 vs last-place ACC GA Tech (9 mins left to play). A loss to the Jackets would be costly given their sputtering finish.
Thursday Landscape
Below this post is an essay about the yearly rites of the NCAA tourney. Read it if you like.
Also, if you want to talk bracket on the radio with TBB, you can listen here:
Friday, Mar 13, 5 pm CST: Bowling Green's The Ticket, 1340 AM with the Sports Guys
Saturday, Mar 14, 10 am CST: 1450 AM Bowling Green, 1230 Glasgow (Kentucky)
--The OSS is updated through last night's games.
--I took Notre Dame out of the Lockbox. They will be NITting.
--Conference tourney fever reaches it height today as every tourney not already underway begins today. There's so many big games, it warrants a GOI.
Today's GOI
--Virginia vs Boston College. Eagles are in good shape, but a loss here would put them on the Bubble.
--NC State vs Maryland. Terps need a deep, strong run.
--Richmond vs Dayton. Flyers need to win a couple to feel totally safe.
--Duquesne vs Rhode Island. That loss to UMass badly damaged the Rams. They need a strong run and may need to win the whole thing.
--Saint Joseph's vs Temple. Anything but a trip to the finals and a good showing there kills the Owls.
--Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. Cowboys are in decent shape, but a win here would clinch it.
--Providence at Louisville. Friars can make huge hay with a win.
--Iowa vs Michigan. Wolverines cannot lose this one.
--Northwestern vs Minnesota. A win puts the Gophers in great shape, a loss puts them squarely on the Bubble. Wildcats have to have it.
--Indiana at Penn State. Lions can't afford a loss to IU.
--Wyoming vs New Mexico. Lobos need a big run.
--San Diego State at UNLV. Loser is probably done.
--Arizona at Arizona State. Cats could really use another win or two. A loss and they will be right on the fence.
--Southern Cal vs Cal. Trojans need a strong tourney showing.
--Mississippi vs Kentucky. UK needs multiple wins to have any shot.
Also, if you want to talk bracket on the radio with TBB, you can listen here:
Friday, Mar 13, 5 pm CST: Bowling Green's The Ticket, 1340 AM with the Sports Guys
Saturday, Mar 14, 10 am CST: 1450 AM Bowling Green, 1230 Glasgow (Kentucky)
--The OSS is updated through last night's games.
--I took Notre Dame out of the Lockbox. They will be NITting.
--Conference tourney fever reaches it height today as every tourney not already underway begins today. There's so many big games, it warrants a GOI.
Today's GOI
--Virginia vs Boston College. Eagles are in good shape, but a loss here would put them on the Bubble.
--NC State vs Maryland. Terps need a deep, strong run.
--Richmond vs Dayton. Flyers need to win a couple to feel totally safe.
--Duquesne vs Rhode Island. That loss to UMass badly damaged the Rams. They need a strong run and may need to win the whole thing.
--Saint Joseph's vs Temple. Anything but a trip to the finals and a good showing there kills the Owls.
--Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. Cowboys are in decent shape, but a win here would clinch it.
--Providence at Louisville. Friars can make huge hay with a win.
--Iowa vs Michigan. Wolverines cannot lose this one.
--Northwestern vs Minnesota. A win puts the Gophers in great shape, a loss puts them squarely on the Bubble. Wildcats have to have it.
--Indiana at Penn State. Lions can't afford a loss to IU.
--Wyoming vs New Mexico. Lobos need a big run.
--San Diego State at UNLV. Loser is probably done.
--Arizona at Arizona State. Cats could really use another win or two. A loss and they will be right on the fence.
--Southern Cal vs Cal. Trojans need a strong tourney showing.
--Mississippi vs Kentucky. UK needs multiple wins to have any shot.
With Madness Comes Sanity
Every NCAA Tournament brings with it wild hope and excitement for all 65 teams. A few elite teams look at their protected seed and see how much resistance they might meet before they get to the supposed sure-fire Elite Eight or Final Four (North Carolina, UConn, Oklahoma, Pitt). A big chunk of teams see tough match ups in the first round and fret over playing a team that they know little about in just four or five days. Others are simply happy to be in the bracket and await their chance to make history by upsetting some power conference stalwart in a 14-over-3 upset. Regardless of a team’s view of their place in Bracketville, the themes are accomplishment, electricity, anticipation, and a chance for glory.
Fans of all stripes will undoubtedly work themselves into a rich lather over what could be in store for their respective teams, but amid all the dreams of unknown splendor reside some constants that never change from year to year. Here lay the old souls of Bracketville that are always sitting at the barber shop or the lunch counter every season drinking coffee and telling all the youngsters about how the more things change, the more they stay the same. They are the cool, sane, steady constants of this once-a-year storm of excitement commonly known as March Madness.
Not many At-Large teams from non-power conferences
Bank on it: the lion’s share (and it’s a big, ferocious, man-eating lion this season) of At-Large bids will go to teams from power/BCS/”major” conferences. In fact, the only teams outside of the Big 6 plus the Mountain West and CUSA (the “power” conferences) that stand much of a chance at an At-Large bid this season are Butler, Xavier, Dayton, Gonzaga, Utah State, Davidson, Temple, Creighton, Rhode Island, and St. Mary’s. That’s it—and that is being quite generous in a few of those cases. If a number of those teams win their conference tourneys and do not need an At-Large bid, it could result in the smallest number of non-power At-Large teams in many years.
Since the RPI formula changed in 2005 to weight road games more heavily, 25 non-power conference teams have been awarded At-Large bids for an average of just over six per year. That means about 28/34 At-large teams come from power conferences. So called “mid-majors” will be fortunate to get that many this year. It does not look likely unless teams like Butler, Xavier, and Utah State lose in their conference tourneys.
Tirades about conference quotas
Teams get bids not conferences. There is no set number of bids for each conference—never has been. Recently, Kyle Whelliston of midmajority.com (and Hoopdom’s Mid-Major Czar) participated in the mock selection committee held for journalists to help the public understand the process. He noted that late in the process, he realized that no one had any idea how many teams were “in” from each conference. The committee looks at team profiles when making decisions. The question, “How many are in from the Big East?” simply does not come up. The ACC, ESPN’s darling conference, sent just three teams in 2000. They have sent as many as seven. It depends on the year and a team’s conference name alone does not help them get into the bracket.
Outrage from media types and fans
It happens every year. Dickie V will pick his case or two. So will Digger Phelps. Billy Packer retired, so hoop nation will be spared his C. Montgomery Burns-like-venom-spewing session directed at the committee chair this season. But many fans will unleash a red-faced, vein-bulging, profanity-laced tirade aimed at their television when their team is left out. The reality is that if a team is left out, they had a fatal flaw of some sort, or else ten experts would have voted them into the bracket. Folks can debate if their #35 or #36 best At-Large team should have gotten in over #34, but at the bottom of the bracket, the argument is almost always about which team is the least flawed and not about how X team “deserves” to get in.
Anointing of a Cinderella
“Cinderella.” Sometimes it fits the bill, like when a team seems coated with pixie dust and gets a lot of lucky breaks helping them to upend a couple of higher seeds. But, more often, it is assigned to teams in an effort to create a nice storyline for the media. Truthfully, if a team won their conference tourney and then makes a run in the national championship bracket, then they are likely a good basketball team. Just because they do not play in a TV conference does not mean they are not good, and just because Joe Fan cannot name any of their players does not mean they could not have competed in one of the power conferences. Appreciate the so-called “Cinderallas” for what they are: good teams that few people knew anything about or possible underachieving teams that put it together late. Was WKU a Cinderalla last year? NO! Anyone who watched WKU over the last 15 games knew this was a top-20 level team. Save the term for when it fits.
Buds of Spring
Finally, the tournament season comes in like a lion and out like a lamb. What begins in tumultuous March weather (I got snowed in on Monday and sunburned on Friday during my 1998 Spring Break in Washington, DC) will end in the warmer April showers of real, live Spring. The NCAA Tournament not only culminates a long winter of over 10,000 DI college basketball games, but launches the sports world into thoughts of days at the diamond-shaped ballpark, the Masters, and the rediscovery of the fresh, greening outdoors. In sports world, we put winter to bed with the most democratic championship in sports.
And that is the madness of March—the cool, constant, soothing, dependable madness. It does not matter if the jersey says North Carolina or Western Carolina, Duke or Drake, Syracuse or Binghamton. If a team wins their conference tourney and wins six games in the NCAA Tourney, they will be the national champion. Just like the discussed points above, it happens every year. Therefore, I have a hard time calling it “March Madness.” In fact, is the sanest championship in sports.
Fans of all stripes will undoubtedly work themselves into a rich lather over what could be in store for their respective teams, but amid all the dreams of unknown splendor reside some constants that never change from year to year. Here lay the old souls of Bracketville that are always sitting at the barber shop or the lunch counter every season drinking coffee and telling all the youngsters about how the more things change, the more they stay the same. They are the cool, sane, steady constants of this once-a-year storm of excitement commonly known as March Madness.
Not many At-Large teams from non-power conferences
Bank on it: the lion’s share (and it’s a big, ferocious, man-eating lion this season) of At-Large bids will go to teams from power/BCS/”major” conferences. In fact, the only teams outside of the Big 6 plus the Mountain West and CUSA (the “power” conferences) that stand much of a chance at an At-Large bid this season are Butler, Xavier, Dayton, Gonzaga, Utah State, Davidson, Temple, Creighton, Rhode Island, and St. Mary’s. That’s it—and that is being quite generous in a few of those cases. If a number of those teams win their conference tourneys and do not need an At-Large bid, it could result in the smallest number of non-power At-Large teams in many years.
Since the RPI formula changed in 2005 to weight road games more heavily, 25 non-power conference teams have been awarded At-Large bids for an average of just over six per year. That means about 28/34 At-large teams come from power conferences. So called “mid-majors” will be fortunate to get that many this year. It does not look likely unless teams like Butler, Xavier, and Utah State lose in their conference tourneys.
Tirades about conference quotas
Teams get bids not conferences. There is no set number of bids for each conference—never has been. Recently, Kyle Whelliston of midmajority.com (and Hoopdom’s Mid-Major Czar) participated in the mock selection committee held for journalists to help the public understand the process. He noted that late in the process, he realized that no one had any idea how many teams were “in” from each conference. The committee looks at team profiles when making decisions. The question, “How many are in from the Big East?” simply does not come up. The ACC, ESPN’s darling conference, sent just three teams in 2000. They have sent as many as seven. It depends on the year and a team’s conference name alone does not help them get into the bracket.
Outrage from media types and fans
It happens every year. Dickie V will pick his case or two. So will Digger Phelps. Billy Packer retired, so hoop nation will be spared his C. Montgomery Burns-like-venom-spewing session directed at the committee chair this season. But many fans will unleash a red-faced, vein-bulging, profanity-laced tirade aimed at their television when their team is left out. The reality is that if a team is left out, they had a fatal flaw of some sort, or else ten experts would have voted them into the bracket. Folks can debate if their #35 or #36 best At-Large team should have gotten in over #34, but at the bottom of the bracket, the argument is almost always about which team is the least flawed and not about how X team “deserves” to get in.
Anointing of a Cinderella
“Cinderella.” Sometimes it fits the bill, like when a team seems coated with pixie dust and gets a lot of lucky breaks helping them to upend a couple of higher seeds. But, more often, it is assigned to teams in an effort to create a nice storyline for the media. Truthfully, if a team won their conference tourney and then makes a run in the national championship bracket, then they are likely a good basketball team. Just because they do not play in a TV conference does not mean they are not good, and just because Joe Fan cannot name any of their players does not mean they could not have competed in one of the power conferences. Appreciate the so-called “Cinderallas” for what they are: good teams that few people knew anything about or possible underachieving teams that put it together late. Was WKU a Cinderalla last year? NO! Anyone who watched WKU over the last 15 games knew this was a top-20 level team. Save the term for when it fits.
Buds of Spring
Finally, the tournament season comes in like a lion and out like a lamb. What begins in tumultuous March weather (I got snowed in on Monday and sunburned on Friday during my 1998 Spring Break in Washington, DC) will end in the warmer April showers of real, live Spring. The NCAA Tournament not only culminates a long winter of over 10,000 DI college basketball games, but launches the sports world into thoughts of days at the diamond-shaped ballpark, the Masters, and the rediscovery of the fresh, greening outdoors. In sports world, we put winter to bed with the most democratic championship in sports.
And that is the madness of March—the cool, constant, soothing, dependable madness. It does not matter if the jersey says North Carolina or Western Carolina, Duke or Drake, Syracuse or Binghamton. If a team wins their conference tourney and wins six games in the NCAA Tourney, they will be the national champion. Just like the discussed points above, it happens every year. Therefore, I have a hard time calling it “March Madness.” In fact, is the sanest championship in sports.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Bracket Update 3/11
The new bracket is really just a tweak of Wed's. But, there are substantive changes in the auto bids. The 11-16 seeds had to be shifted a bit. And, with Butler's loss, St. Mary's is out.
2.40 pm
So far today, Providence did what they had to do and beat DePaul. Now, if they can beat Louisville, they might be in business. Marquette is absolutely undressing St. John's. It's 38-10 at half.
And I'm still on a high from the WKU win last night that clinched the Belt bid.
2.40 pm
So far today, Providence did what they had to do and beat DePaul. Now, if they can beat Louisville, they might be in business. Marquette is absolutely undressing St. John's. It's 38-10 at half.
And I'm still on a high from the WKU win last night that clinched the Belt bid.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Tuesday Night Music Club
These three earned bids tonight: WKU (Sun Belt), North Dakota State (Summit), and Cleveland State (Horizon). That last one cost some Bubble team an invite, and in the updated Lockbox, that team was St. Mary's. Full bracket update tomorrow.
Cleveland State played nip-and-tuck on Butler's home court before pulling it out late. ND State overcame a 10-pt deficit late as Ben Woodside's jumper with 3 seconds left lifted the Bison into the bracket in their first year of DI full eligibility. WKU built a 15-pt first half lead only to see South Alabama storm back to take a 4-pt advantage midway through the 2nd half. The Toppers methodically cranked up the D again and made every free throw they took in the game (!) to salt it away.
Given all that, the real shocker of the night was Weber State losing on their home court to #6 seed Montana State in the Big Sky. They went 15-1 in league, won it by a full FOUR games, and had won 12 straight. The only loss? A home loss to Montana State. Just like tonight.
The OSS is complete through tonight's games. Things get wild tomorrow. Aforementioned Montana State will play Portland State for the Big Sky bid. Mt. St. Mary's travels to Robert Morris to decide the Northeast rep, too. Big East and MEAC round twos are happening. The A-10, Big 12, Big West, CUSA, Mountain West, Pac-10, and SWAC all get going as well.
The most intriguing game outside of the bid games is probably Notre Dame vs West Virginia. A loss kills ND for good. A win puts them back in the convo. They are 6-3 in their last nine including a POUNDING of Louisville and a rout of Providence at the Donut.
Cleveland State played nip-and-tuck on Butler's home court before pulling it out late. ND State overcame a 10-pt deficit late as Ben Woodside's jumper with 3 seconds left lifted the Bison into the bracket in their first year of DI full eligibility. WKU built a 15-pt first half lead only to see South Alabama storm back to take a 4-pt advantage midway through the 2nd half. The Toppers methodically cranked up the D again and made every free throw they took in the game (!) to salt it away.
Given all that, the real shocker of the night was Weber State losing on their home court to #6 seed Montana State in the Big Sky. They went 15-1 in league, won it by a full FOUR games, and had won 12 straight. The only loss? A home loss to Montana State. Just like tonight.
The OSS is complete through tonight's games. Things get wild tomorrow. Aforementioned Montana State will play Portland State for the Big Sky bid. Mt. St. Mary's travels to Robert Morris to decide the Northeast rep, too. Big East and MEAC round twos are happening. The A-10, Big 12, Big West, CUSA, Mountain West, Pac-10, and SWAC all get going as well.
The most intriguing game outside of the bid games is probably Notre Dame vs West Virginia. A loss kills ND for good. A win puts them back in the convo. They are 6-3 in their last nine including a POUNDING of Louisville and a rout of Providence at the Donut.
Tuesday Landscape
--The OSS is up to date.
--Congrats Siena (MAAC) and Gonzaga (WCC). They joined Chattonooga and VCU as auto bids last night, Gonzaga doing so in devastating fashion over St. Mary's. Devastating enough to kill St. Mary's AL chances? They are certainly an interesting case for the committee.
--It's bid day for three conferences:
1. Cleveland State at Butler (Horizon). These two played just ten days ago in Hinkle in a down-to-the-wire affair. Bubble Nation is praying for Butler to win.
2. Oakland vs North Dakota State (Summit). The Bison are 17-1 in their last 18 and have only lost two games this calendar year. One of those was at Oakland by 1. They beat the Super Golden Crisp Grizzlies by 10 at home. The Grizz have won 9 in a row of their own.
3. WKU vs South Alabama (Sun Belt). After a year of relative parity in the Belt, it comes down to two old stalwarts. WKU beat USA twice in the regular season (by 12 at home, 3 at South AL), but both were close most of the way. WKU is 14-2 to end the season (6 straight) while USA is 8-2 in their last 10.
--In other action, the Big Sky semis, MEAC first round, and WAC first round are on tap. The MAC and Big East also get things started today.
--Congrats Siena (MAAC) and Gonzaga (WCC). They joined Chattonooga and VCU as auto bids last night, Gonzaga doing so in devastating fashion over St. Mary's. Devastating enough to kill St. Mary's AL chances? They are certainly an interesting case for the committee.
--It's bid day for three conferences:
1. Cleveland State at Butler (Horizon). These two played just ten days ago in Hinkle in a down-to-the-wire affair. Bubble Nation is praying for Butler to win.
2. Oakland vs North Dakota State (Summit). The Bison are 17-1 in their last 18 and have only lost two games this calendar year. One of those was at Oakland by 1. They beat the Super Golden Crisp Grizzlies by 10 at home. The Grizz have won 9 in a row of their own.
3. WKU vs South Alabama (Sun Belt). After a year of relative parity in the Belt, it comes down to two old stalwarts. WKU beat USA twice in the regular season (by 12 at home, 3 at South AL), but both were close most of the way. WKU is 14-2 to end the season (6 straight) while USA is 8-2 in their last 10.
--In other action, the Big Sky semis, MEAC first round, and WAC first round are on tap. The MAC and Big East also get things started today.
Monday, March 09, 2009
Monday Updates
9.33 pm CT
--Congrats to VCU (CAA) and Chattanooga (SoCon). They punched their tickets tonight.
--In the Belt, WKU won a war of attrition with North Texas that left its mark, literally and figuratively. It was a rough-and-tumble game, but North Texas found out it's difficult to outwork and out-battle the Hilltoppers. You simply have to be better and the Mean Green's hot early shooting left them late in the game. WKU gets the winner of South Alabama and pseudo-home team UALR and Team USA is all over them to start 15-3. UALR is having one of it's occasional offensive clunkers. Their D will probably get them back in it.
--Meanwhile, Siena and Niagara are in a lockjaw affair over in the MAAC final while Gonzaga is cruising up 20 over St. Mary's. Looks like thumb-twiddling time for the Gaels.
SCKySSiP Update
Our mock committee turned in our first lists today: At-Large list (teams who are already IN) and our Nomination board. We voted 26 teams IN, but a number of those will win their conference tourneys, so it's less AL teams than that.
--Congrats to VCU (CAA) and Chattanooga (SoCon). They punched their tickets tonight.
--In the Belt, WKU won a war of attrition with North Texas that left its mark, literally and figuratively. It was a rough-and-tumble game, but North Texas found out it's difficult to outwork and out-battle the Hilltoppers. You simply have to be better and the Mean Green's hot early shooting left them late in the game. WKU gets the winner of South Alabama and pseudo-home team UALR and Team USA is all over them to start 15-3. UALR is having one of it's occasional offensive clunkers. Their D will probably get them back in it.
--Meanwhile, Siena and Niagara are in a lockjaw affair over in the MAAC final while Gonzaga is cruising up 20 over St. Mary's. Looks like thumb-twiddling time for the Gaels.
SCKySSiP Update
Our mock committee turned in our first lists today: At-Large list (teams who are already IN) and our Nomination board. We voted 26 teams IN, but a number of those will win their conference tourneys, so it's less AL teams than that.
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