Friday, March 13, 2009

Saturday Landscape

The OSS is up to date.

The SCKySSiP Mock Committee is rockin' along. We meet for our marathon session of hammering out the last few at-larges, seeding teams, and setting up Sunday contingencies all day tomorrow. I will post the fruits of our labor late tomorrow or early on Sunday.

Another bid went off the board today, as Temple and Duquesne (that's doo-KAYN for the unitiated) took out A10 faves Xavier and Dayton, respectively. Xavier is obviously IN. I moved the Flyers onto the Bubble as they sputtered a bit late, suffering some puzzling losses. They will have to sweat it out on Sunday. But, it did not cost them their bid in the Lockbox for the time being. It cost Florida. Not only is the Gators' profile spotty, but they simply have not looked like a tourney team in the times I have seen them. They go OUT, leaving the SEC with just two. More on that momentarily.

It is good seeing some teams roar late. Maryland has really helped themselves. Ohio State is now a lock. Tulsa and Auburn are doing everything they can. Southern Cal is rising from the ashes.

All that said, there are a number of scenarios that could result in erased available bids. In fact, by my count, the max number is seven. Here's a list to watch for results that could reduce the number of Bubble bids. Some of these are long shots, but some are feasible or have even already occurred (A10).

San Diego State vs Utah (MtWest Final). I like the Aztecs to get IN even if they lose, barring too many bids disappearing. But, their success means another Bubble team gets cut. The Bubble is rooting for Utah.

Tulsa vs Memphis (CUSA Final). Bubble Nation will break out their vintage Keith Lee jerseys and cheer for the Tigers.

Temple vs Duquesne (A10 Final). As mentioned above, this has already cut one. Remember what TBB said about the Owls WAAAAYYY back on December 18? Road warriors are they.

Baylor vs Missouri (Big 12 Final). The Bears are playing like the team we expected back in November. A Baylor wins steals another one from the Bubblers.

Utah State at Nevada (WAC Final). If the Aggies lose, it puts a highly regarded team on the Bubble. It's crowded enough without adding a 28-5 team to the mix. And this game is on Nevada's home court.

Southern Cal vs Arizona State (Pac 10 Final). USC has played their way back into the mix, and will swipe another Bubble bid if they hold on tonight and win tomorrow. Even if they lose, they will certainly be in the AL convo.

SEC Final Four. Back to the SEC. Their final four is quite intriguing. Tennessee and LSU have been known NCAA teams for quite some time. Auburn found its mojo in early Feb and has went 10-1 since. Mississippi State has won four straight and has the talent to win this thing. If one of the two upstarts win it, it takes another bid off the board. And it ensures that the SEC sends at least three teams.