Lockbox Update/Weekend

I'm simply not going to have time for a bracket today. Work stuff coupled with my band playing a show tonight is not going to allow it.

I do have an updated Lockbox ready to go. Also, I think some other teams have LOCKED their spots:

Duke, Georgetown, Memphis

The OSS saw several teams clinch last night. The top five spots of the SoCon are set. The top three of the Mid-Con are lined up, too.

Last Night's GOI
--at Appalachian State 80,UNC-Greensboro 66. Mountaineers clinch SoCon North.
--at Clemson 71, Duke 66. Tigers are in serious trouble. Teams 2-8 in their last ten don't get into the tourney regardless of their schedule.
--at New Mexico State 76, Utah State 73. It's going to be tough for either of these clubs to get an AL bid.
--at Oregon 64, Washington State 59. Ducks answered the bell when they needed to.
--at Southern Cal 69, Stanford 65. Trojans are in a very strong position now.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Tennessee at Arkansas. Vols desperately need to cash in on the road.
--Clemson at Boston College. Tigers have to turn it around in short order.
--Detroit at Butler. Dogs have been less than invincible lately.
--Kansas State at Colorado. KSU has to have this one.
--Wichita State at Creighton. Jays need to stop this mini-slide.
--Xavier at Dayton. XU needs to keep working on their AL profile in case they do not win the A-10 tourney.
--NC State at Florida State. Must win for 'Noles.
--Pitt at Georgetown. HEAVY hitters of the Big East.
--Mississippi State at Georgia. MSU is a latecomer that is gaining steam.
--Indiana at Michigan State. Spartans seem to be putting it together at the right time.
--Missouri at Nebraska. Tigers are a long shot, but they are not out of it.
--Marquette at Notre Dame. Irish would be in pretty good shape with a win here.
--Syracuse at Providence. Both need this one badly to stay in the picture.
--BYU at San Diego State. Cougar win would make them extremely difficult to catch in the MWC.
--Mississippi at South Carolina. Rebels are clawing for the SEC West lead and an AL bid.
--Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. Cowboys seem to be running out of steam. TT is one of the more unpredictable teams in the land.
--Stanford at UCLA. This would lock it up for the Cardinal.
--Georgia Tech at Virginia. Jackets need it more.
Sunday
--Louisville at UConn. This would all but lock it up for the Cards.
--North Carolina at Maryland. Terps are surging and playing for seeding now.
--Wisconsin at Ohio State. Massive Big Ten title implications.
--Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Winner gets a huge leg up for E2 slot and SEC tourney bye.

More Lines Filled

Today's congrats:

Florida (SEC). The Gators clinched the 1E slot in the SEC tourney.
Creighton. #2 Valley.
Missouri State. #3 Valley.

Check out the updated One Stop Shop for more updates.

Full bracket update coming tomorrow.

This blog follows the Sun Belt conference closer than any other, and the Belt regular season will be wrapped up in games tonight and on Saturday.

Tonight
UL-Lafayette (7-9) at FIU (6-10).
UALR (7-9) at New Orleans (8-8).
Arkansas State (9-7) at North Texas (9-7). Both still alive for West crown, #2 spot, and a bye in the conference tourney. ASU won the first meeting, so they can put the Mean Green behind them for good
Denver (3-14) at UL-Monroe (10-6). A UL-Monroe win assures them no worse than a coin flip for the #2 spot. They have the tie-breaker over North Texas and have split with Arkansas State. A win coupled with an ASU loss clinches the #2 bye for ULM.
Middle Tennessee (7-9) at Troy (6-10).

I will post another update tomorrow after tonight's results.

Last Night's GOI
--at Auburn 67, Arkansas 59. I'm calling this a pig roast. Ark looks well-done at this point.
--at Illinois 54, Michigan 42. Wolverines are going to need to find magic in the Big 10 tourney; Illini hold onto their AL hopes.
--at Iowa 78, Purdue 59. Purdue simply stinks on the road. Bad loss with bad timing.
--at Maryland 73, Florida State 55. 'Noles are in serious trouble. They will have a losing regular season conference record no matter what occurs. Meanwhile, the Terps are close to locking up their spot. One more win will probably do it.
--at Mississippi 67, Georgia 49. Big blow to UGA; Ole Miss is hanging in there.
--at Mississippi State 83, Vanderbilt 70. On on the outside, here come the Bulldogs! They are now tied with Ole Miss for the SEC West lead.
--Texas A&M 66, at Oklahoma State 46. When you are on the Bubble, 20-point home losses are generally a bad thing.
--at Tennessee 69, Alabama 66 (OT). Two horrible road teams...and the result held to form.
--at Virginia Tech 79, Boston College 62. Have fun figuring out what to do with VA Tech in your bracket picks.
--at Xavier 98, Rhode Island 72. It's now XU and UMass at the top of the A-10.

Tonight's GOI
--UNC-Greensboro at Appalachian State. An ASU win clinches the SoCon North.
--Duke at Clemson. Tigers are in danger. A win here would help a great deal.
--Utah State at New Mexico State. Two fringe Bubble teams--loser probably gets popped.
--Washington State at Oregon. Ducks need a win badly and they are at home. Time to see what they are made of.
--Stanford at Southern Cal. Winner all but seals their bid.

Bubble Stays at 11

"Nothing could be finer than being in your diner." ~Jerry, Seinfeld: "The Bubble Boy Episode"

First, congratulations to Winthrop (Big South) and Southern Illinois (Valley) for securing #1 slots in their conference tourneys. Winthrop did the trick with a come-from-behind win over High Point last night, while SIU clinched when Creighton lost at Illinois State. This and more conference tourney updates in the One Stop Shop.

We turn now to the Bubble Boys and the Lockbox. The rampant losing by some formerly high-falutin' teams is making it crowded at the bottom. Apart from OK State, Texas Tech, Clemson, and a few other formerly solidly IN teams, Tennessee and Creighton are really pushing their luck. I left the Jays as "win games they should" simply because they have one home game and the Valley Tourney left. If they beat Wichita State at home and grab a win or two in the Valley Tourney, they will likely be OK.

Tennessee has such an abysmal road record that they are in real danger if they drop a home game (Florida still to come). They might even need to take care of Arkansas or UGA on the road to feel solid. Their fat RPI and some nice wins will help buoy them as long as they get to 8-8 in the SEC. But, with Alabama coming in tonight, two road games, and Florida coming in next week, the schedule is going to be tough to navigate for the Vols. They have to be considered a Bubble Boy at this point.

Meanwhile, Drexel and Old Dominion are charging hard in the CAA. Louisville and Maryland have went from OUT to pretty solid bracket picks in the last few games. Michigan State will get serious mileage out of their win over Wisconsin last night. The Mountain West looks to be in great shape for three bids this year, too (BYU, UNLV, AFA). So, not EVERYONE is losing. It just seems that way.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--26 teams are either LOCKED (all caps BLACK font) or look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of them are conference leaders. That means that 15 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Eight other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 23 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 11 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--Northern Iowa 79, at Bradley 70. Home losses at this juncture for a team like Bradley pretty much drops the curtains on an AL bid.
--at Kentucky 70, LSU 63. Cats get their win in less than impressive fashion over Big Baby-less Tigers.
--at Michigan State 64, Wisconsin 55. Drew Neitzel: Bacon-saver extraordinaire.
--at Notre Dame 78, DePaul 54. Irish move a step closer. A win at Rutgers in their last game probably wraps up their bid. But, that road record...
--at Providence 64, West Virginia 61. Friars hanging on by a thread. WVU is not home free yet.
--at Texas 80, Texas Tech 51. Raiders were ground into the pavement by a burnt orange bootheel. Bobby's boys are WILDLY inconsistent and hard to figure.
--at UNLV 60, Air Force 50. Big Rebel win also puts BYU two games clear of both of these clubs.
--Missouri State 71, at Wichita State 65. Bears got off the mat late in the game to claw out a win. Shockers are pretty much done as an AL possibility.

Tonight's GOI
--Arkansas at Auburn. Razorbacks need to pile up some wins starting RIGHT NOW.
--Michigan at Illinois. Neither team can really afford a loss at this point.
--Purdue at Iowa. Boilers would be in decent shape if they could post a road win.
--Florida State at Maryland. 'Noles have fallen off the pace with four straight losses. They have two winnable games left after this one, so a win here would be golden.
--Georgia at Mississippi. Both still alive, but Ole Miss has to hold home court. Could be a big roadie for Dawgs.
--Vanderbilt at Mississippi State. 'Dores have to beware of a letdown after Florida win.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma State. Cowboys are falling quickly and would likely fall out of the bracket with another "L".
--Alabama at Tennessee. Vols have been very tough at home, and they need a win to wash out the taste of that drubbing at South Carolina.
--Boston College at Virginia Tech. It's always fun to guess which Hokie team is going to show.
--Rhode Island at Xavier. Loser falls out of a tie for first in the A-10.

Mission: Accomplised (Sort of)

There are some more teams that need certificates of accomplishment today.

First, these clubs have secured the 1-seeds in their conference tournaments:

America East: Vermont
Mid-Continent: Oral Roberts
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Sun Belt: South Alabama

Congratulations to all of these clubs. There are a smattering of other seeds that have been secured as well. You can see them all in the updated One Stop Shop.

Also, in addition to last weeks LOCKS, these teams also have done enough:

North Carolina, Kansas, Texas A&M, Southern Illinois

View the updated Lockbox for more. The Lockbox will be updated almost daily from here on out.

A full Bubble Boy update is coming tomorrow. It should be expansive.

Last Night's GOI
--Kansas 71, at Kansas State 62. It had all the makings, Blackout Bramlage on ESPN and all, but K-State could not stay in front of Sherron Collins. That will be a problem for many future teams as well.
--at Marquette 80, Villanova 67. Golden Eagles break their skid; Nova falls under .500 in Big East.

Tonight's GOI
--Northern Iowa at Bradley. Braves are in must win mode.
--LSU at Kentucky. Cats need to stop their 3-game slide.
--Wisconsin at Michigan State. It simply does not get bigger for Bubbly Spartans.
--DePaul and Notre Dame. DePaul needs it more, but ND is not safe either.
--West Virginia at Providence. WVU is in better shape; this is probably a must win for the Friars.
--Texas Tech at Texas. Roller coaster Raiders need consistency down the stretch.
--Air Force at UNLV. Both chasing BYU and jockeying for Mt West/NCAA seeding.
--Missouri State at Wichita State. Bears have to have it.

Three Weeks 'til SelSun

This bracket was a challenge at the bottom. It always gets crazy this time of year, doesn't it? Louisville, who has been perfectly average all season long, finds magic and wins two road games over lofty RPI teams. If a team has not done permanent damage to their resume, sometimes that is all it takes: get hot at the end. The Cards are doing that. When Bubbleworld is losing, teams on long win streaks start to look really bracket-friendly (Old Dominion, anyone?).

The last seven slots seemed quite iffy today. I took Notre Dame, Missouri State, Clemson, Purdue, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, and Old Dominion over teams like Illinois, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Georgia, Bradley, Appalachian State, Drexel, Michigan, Gonzaga, Syracuse, DePaul and Arkansas. There were good reasons to leave out the teams that I chose. Hopefully, some of these teams in freefall can get hot and resurrect their seasons (Clemson? OK State? FSU?).

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (8): North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Georgia Tech
Big East (7): Pitt, Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville, Notre Dame
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington State, Southern Cal, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford
SEC (5): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama
Big XII (5): Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue
Missouri Valley (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
Mountain West (3): Air Force, UNLV, BYU
Colonial (2): VCU, Old Dominion

Tonight's GOI
--Kansas at Kansas State. Wildcats could land the big fish for their resume.
--Villanova at Marquette. Golden Eagles try to bounce back from heartbreaking loss to Louisville on Sat. Cats try to get above .500 in Big East.

Weekend Forecast

First, I apologize for having no email link for who knows how long. I was not aware that it had disappeared. There is one to the right now.

Second, thanks for info for the One Stop Shop. I've received many helpful updates on time and TV changes. Keep them coming. With continued proofing, the OSS will be a nice tool for everyone to use during conference tourney time. I've put a permanent link to the right.

No time for a bracket today. I'll try to get two in (Monday and Friday) next week.

Weekend Forecast
Friday
BracketBusters
--Albany at Boise State.
--Winthrop at Missouri State. Winthrop probably cannot get an AL, but a win by Missouri State would help solidify their profile with another top 100 win.
Saturday
--Kentucky at Alabama. Bama sure could use a Top 25 RPI win (current total: 0).
--UCLA at Arizona. Southern Cal just knocked off Zona in Tucson, so they will be smarting.
--Mississippi at Arkansas. Win here makes Rebs a serious AL candidate.
--North Carolina at Boston College. Battle for the top of the ACC.
--Memphis at Gonzaga. This one has lost some of its luster since Mushroom Mania and the snapping of GU's 50-game home win streak.
--Louisville at Marquette. Huge game for UL and they try to follow up on the big win at Pitt.
--Indiana at Michigan. Wolverines are on life support.
--Iowa at Michigan State. This probably feels like a must-win for both clubs.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma. Sooners need a pick-me-up.
--Missouri at Oklahoma State. Cowboys need to snap out of their slump.
--Cornell at Penn. Quakers can put the Big Red two games back with a win.
--Washington at Pitt. Huskies could significantly bolster their OOC profile with this one.
--Oregon at Stanford. Once Mighty Ducks are 2-5 in their last 7.
--Florida at Vanderbilt. Memorial Gym is a dangerous, dangerous venue.
--Georgetown at Villanova. Cats have won 4 straight and have already won at G'town.
--Florida State at Virginia. 'Noles find themselves in need of a win after dropping three straight.
BracketBusters
--Austin Peay at Akron. OVC and MAC top dogs go at it.
--Southern Illinois at Butler. The cream matchup of BB weekend.
--Drexel at Creighton. Dragons could really help themselves here.
--Holy Cross at Hofstra. Just an interesting matchup even though both have little hope as AL teams.
--Northern Iowa at Nevada. Can only hurt Nevada; UNI is pretty much toast as an AL>
--Old Dominion at Toledo. ODU is scrapping on the Bubble. A Top 100 road win would not hurt a bit.
--Bradley at VCU. Must win for either to hope for AL.
--Appalachian State at Wichita State. Tough for either of teams as AL's. Too many sub-100 losses for PSU and too many overall losses for WSU.
Sunday
--Maryland at Clemson. Tigers are 2-6 in their last eight and just lost to Wake. They are in danger of squandering that 17-0 start.
--Georgia Tech at Duke. Jackets broke through on the road at FSU. Duke just stopped their 4-game skid. Someone will come out of this one with some momentum.

One Stop Update

I have update the One Stop Shop after rechecking several tourneys. It is still a work in progress, but it's getting closer. Let me know if you see errors by sending a kind email.

Congrats to Austin Peay! They have locked up the #1 seed in the OVC Tourney and the OSS reflects such. A few other teams have a shot to lock up their tourney's top seed with a win this weekend or losses by trailing teams.

Last Night's GOI
--Duke 78, at Boston College 70. Duke is not on the Bubble, if you were wondering.
--Long Beach 94, at CS-Fullerton 84. Big West is Long Beach's to lose.
--at DePaul 72, Marquette 67. Demons are not quite dead yet.
--at Florida 76, Alabama 67. Big start for Tide crashed in a hurry.
--at Mississippi 71, LSU 70. Ole Miss takes the SEC West lead.
--at Mississippi State 84, Arkansas 60. Stan Heath may be in trouble.
--Maryland 85, at NC State 70. Terps doing what they have to do.
--at Saint Joseph's 62, George Washington 56. Hawks stay alive for A-10 title.
--Washington State 65, at Washington 61. Huskies really needed this one.

Tonight's GOI
--Southern Cal at Arizona. Lots of Pac-10 and NCAA seeding ramifications.
--Providence at Notre Dame. Both are nearing must-win mode.
--Indiana at Purdue. In-state rivalry alert...with meaning!

Bubble Stays at 11

I have made one switch in the Lockbox since Monday's bracket: Kansas State out, Georgia Tech in. Texas Tech is an interesting case, but I'll wait until Monday to do a thorough evaluation of their profile against the rest of the field.

The Bubble stayed at 11 this week, but we have our first LOCKS of the season. The invitations for these five teams are already in the mail:

Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Pitt, UCLA

Even if these teams lose out, they are IN. There are a host of teams that are just a win or two away. I expect this number to jump drastically next week.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--24 teams are either LOCKED (all caps BLACK font) or look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of them are conference leaders. That means that 13 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--10 other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 23 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 11 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--at Creighton 66, Northern Iowa 55. Jays finished strong to put away UNI and stay on track for an AL.
--Georgia Tech 63, at Florida State 57. The value of this road win cannot be overstated. It was GT's fatal flaw, and now they have a good one.
--at Iowa State 58, Oklahoma 51. This one set the Sooners back a good deal.
--at Michigan State 59, Michigan 44. Michigan has lost 5 of 6 and is fading out of the picture entirely.
--at Nebraska 74, Kansas State 63. K-State falls back in the back.
--Virginia Tech 81, at North Carolina 80. All but locked up VT and probably knocks UNC from a 1-seed for the time being.
--at Old Dominion 96, Hofstra 82. Monarchs continue to roll with their 8th straight win.
--at San Diego State 67, UNLV 52. Aztecs are peaking at the right time.
--at Tennessee 89, Kentucky 85. Vols looking like their old selves. UK now 3-7 vs Top 50 RPI.
--Texas Tech 77, at Texas A&M 75. Monster road win that stops a 5-game skid for TT.

Tonight's GOI
--Duke at Boston College. Devils find themselves in dire need of a "W."
--Long Beach at CS-Fullerton. A Titans win pulls them into a tie with the 49ers atop the Big West.
--Marquette at DePaul. Dangerous game for Marquette who is still in the mix for the BIg East title.
--Alabama at Florida. Big, albeit unlikely, opportunity for Tide.
--LSU at Mississippi. With Bama at Florida, Ole Miss has a good shot to take the SEC West lead tonight.
--Arkansas at Mississippi State. Two more SEC West teams scrapping for position.
--Maryland at NC State. Terps cannot afford losses of any kind.
--Indiana at Purdue. In-state rivalry alert! Good rivalry game with high stakes this year.
--George Washington at Saint Joseph's. Loser falls two games back of A-10 leaders.
--Washington State at Washington. In-state rivalry alert! Huskies can get back into the AL mix with a win.

And Down the Stretch They Come

First, you really need to read The Mid-Majority's take on the Gonzaga 'shroom situation.

Now, read on about seven horses who stumbled out of the gate, but have gained on the field and positioned themselves for a strong stretch run. Some of these horses will thunder home and some will run out of gas. At any rate, their recent exploits are to be noticed and commended.

1. Bucknell. The much-celebrated Bison got off to a rocky start, but since a loss to Central Arkansas (!) on Dec 29, the Bison have navigated the Patriot League with just one tough loss at Holy Cross by 5. They balanced the ledger with the HC by beating them 48-45 on Friday. There will be no At-Large for the Bison, but if they do not play HC for the Patriot title, I (and most) will be shocked.

2. Louisville. They had been treading water with the vanilla-ist of profiles until last night, when they smoked Big East leader Pittsburgh by 12 in the Zoo. This win alone will not get UL in, but that kind of play from here on out will.

3. Oklahoma. The Sooners are 6-4 in the Big XII and they have paid their road dues. They have Texas A&M, Texas, and Kansas all in Norman left on the slate. Lots of chances to make a late-season impression on the committee.

4. Iowa. Hawkeyes are a real long shot, but they have won 4 of 6, with the two losses coming to Wisconsin. A strong finish and a good Big Ten tourney could do the trick, especially if they wind up alone in 4th in the Big Ten.

5. Old Dominion. George Mason, Hofstra, Drexel, VCU. All have taken their turn as the CAA darling. But, ODU has won seven straight and that includes a 16-pt walloping of leader VCU. They also have an early-season win over Georgetown on the resume. Another long shot, but they can make it interesting with a big finish.

6. Mississippi. In the parity-ridden SEC West, 5-5 (tie for first) looks pretty good. If the Rebs wind up winning the division, they will be hard to leave at home kNITting.

7. Washington. Since that 1-6 Pac-10 start, the Huskies are 5-1. They host Washington State in a monster game tomorrow night.

Last Night's GOI
--Davidson 73, at College of Charleston 63. Davidson asserts their SoCon South dominance.
--at Georgetown 71, West Virginia 53. Hoya Paranoia is sweeping the countryside.
--Santa Clara 84, at Gonzaga 73. Broncs now sit alone in first in the WCC.
--Louisville 66, at Pitt 53. Cards score a huge win for their resume. They are now certainly in the mix at 8-4 in the Big East.
--at Texas 83, Oklahoma State 54. These two seem to be heading in opposite directions.

Tonight's GOI
--Northern Iowa at Creighton. Jays look to bounce back from tough SIU loss.
--Georgia Tech at Florida State. Both need it, but if GT has any hope, they need to score a road win or two.
--Oklahoma at Iowa State. Sooners are quietly creeping up the Big XII standings. They have Texas A&M, Texas, and Kansas all coming into Norman at season's end. If they could nab one or two of those, plus score this road win, OU might get into the mix.
--Michigan at Michigan State. Both are in desperation mode.
--Kansas State at Nebraska. K-State cannot afford any slip-ups.
--Virginia Tech at North Carolina. UNC lookin' for payback.
--Hofstra at Old Dominion. Monarchs' seven straight wins have put them into the Bubble mix.
--UNLV at San Diego State. Aztecs have ripped off four straight including that 21-point pasting of Air Force.
--Kentucky at Tennessee. Vols are 13-0 at home and Lofton is back. They need a big win to solidify that they are the team that they were before Lofton went down. UK tries to recover from "The one that got away" after their horrid shooting performance against Florida.
--Texas Tech at Texas A&M. Not an easy game for Bob Knight's club to end a 5-game losing streak.

BIG Weekend

Lots of big games on tap this weekend, so let's get to it.

Last Night's GOI
--at DePaul 67, Notre Dame 66. All of these road losses are going to bite ND's seeding.
--Drexel 95, at Hofstra 87 (OT). Dragons score a huge road win.
--at UMass 77, Rhode Island 55. Minutemen left no doubt about who is driving the A-10 bus.
--at South Alabama 73, Western Kentucky 71 (OT). USA is now 3 games clear of WKU in the Sun Belt East with 4 games to play.
--at Washington 79, at Cal 71. Huskies have won 4 of 5 and have BIG home games vs Stanford and Washington State on deck.
--at Washington State 58, Stanford 45. WaSU stands alone in 2nd in the Pac-10.

Weekend Forecast
Friday
--Holy Cross at Bucknell. Bison have won 7 straight since losing at HC. They can tie HC for first in the Patriot with a win.
Saturday
--Xavier at George Washington. Important A-10 tilt and XU has little room for error.
--Marquette at Georgetown. Winner will be alone in 2nd in the Big East...assuming Pitt wins vs Providence.
--Illinois at Indiana. Illini could make hay with a big road win.
--Florida at Kentucky. Must win for UK to have any hope of winning the SEC East.
--Arkansas at LSU. SEC West is waiting for someone to take charge.
--Alabama at Mississippi. See above.
--Kansas at Missouri. Border war alert!
--Montana at Montana State. In-state rivalry alert!
--Missouri State at Northern Iowa. Bears need to stamp their mark as the clear-cut third best team in the MVC.
--Purdue at Ohio State. Boiler win would go a long way on their resume.
--Texas Tech at Oklahoma State. Tech needs it more, but both badly need a win.
--VCU at Old Dominion. A win would pull ODU within one of the Rams in the CAA.
--Arizona at Oregon. Ducks need to win to stay in the Pac-10 title hunt.
--Providence at Pitt. Friars need to pile up some quality wins to be in the mix.
--Austin Peay at Samford. The OVC's best.
--Georgia at South Carolina. UGA cannot afford to lose this type of game.
--Creighton at Southern Illinois. Outright Valley lead is on the line.
--Vanderbilt at Tennessee. Lofton is back, but Vols need a good win to re-establish themselves.
--Akron at Toledo. The MAC's best.
--Virginia at Virginia Tech. All kinds of tasty morsels in this one (ACC jockeying, in-state rivalry, NCAA seeding...)
--UCLA at West Virginia. The 'Eers have a nice record sorely lacking in quality wins. This would qualify.
--Butler at Wright State. Raiders can tie BU in the Horizon with a win.
Sunday
--Vermont at Albany. Danes can gain a tie atop the America East with a win.
--Boston College at Florida State. BC fighting to stay tied for ACC lead; FSU fighting to get above .500.
--Duke at Maryland. Both teams find themselves in dire need of a win.
--Stanford at Washington. Huskies are getting hot, and they need to get hotter.

State of the Sun Belt: Stretch Run Edition

Sprawling across the galaxy, the Sun Belt likely covers more real estate than any other conference in America. It stretches its considerable legs from Miami, FL, to Denver, CO, creating brutal travel schedules for just about everyone. For example, with the Thursday/Saturday game schedule, UL-Monroe played Arkansas State at home on on Jan 4, then had to be in Denver to play the Pioneers on Jan 6. Western Kentucky made an Arkansas State-Denver road swing with just one full day between games. Travel in this league is not for the faint of heart.

The play has been gruesome as well. The league is filled with poor defensive teams and not too many good offensive ones (WKU, USA, New Orleans, and North Texas make the cut). Belt teams are 2-31 against BCS conference teams. There are several teams that should be on the uptick next season, but that's a post for sometime in March or April.

The two best teams in the league will meet tonight in Mobile, Alabama. WKU (9-4) is coming off a loss at North Texas while South Alabama (11-2) has won 10 straight. For all intents and purposes, this game is for the East Division crown. USA can all but salt it away with a win, while WKU can pull within a game and gain a season sweep, giving them the tie-breaker if USA were to falter down the stretch. North Texas and New Orleans also face off in an important West Division matchup as well. After this weekend, most teams will have just three or four conference games left.

Here is a look at what the Belt bracket would look like as of today.

Last Night's GOI
--at Alabama 80, Mississippi State 79. Tide eke out another home win. Will ANYONE in the SEC West take the bull by the horns?
--at Arkansas 65, Auburn 57. And, here is your most likely candidate: The Ark.
--at Clemson 71, Florida State 58. Tigers get a much-needed big win.
--North Carolina 79, at Duke 73. Three ACC home losses for Duke and counting.
--Florida 71, at Georgia 61. No shame for the Dawgs, but they are right on the Bubble.
--at Kansas 97, Kansas State 70. Not a good performance by the Bubbly Wildcats.
--Georgetown 73, at Louisville 65. It simply does not look like it's in the Cards.
--Illinois 58, at Northwestern 53. Illini are quietly doing what they have to do.
--at Oklahoma 67, Oklahoma State 60. Cowboys now 0-4 in true road games.
--at Purdue 62, Michigan State 38. Spartans are spiraling downward with alarming speed.
--Bradley at SIU. Braves need a monster finish for any AL hope.
--at UCLA 70, Southern Cal 65. UCLA keeps its grip on the top of the Pac-10.
--Pittsburgh 60, at West Virginia 47. 'Eers look like a classic Bubbly Boy.
--at Xavier 76, Saint Louis 57. Xavier needs to stay near the top of the A-10 for AL hopes.

Tonight's GOI
--Notre Dame at DePaul. Irish desperately need to cash in on the road.
--Drexel at Hofstra. Good, clean, CAA fun.
--Rhode Island at UMass. Winner takes the outright lead in the A-10.
--Western Kentucky at South Alabama. The Sun Belt's best square off.
--Cal at Washington. Both need to win lots of games, so loser will take a blow.
--Stanford at Washington State. A battle for position and seeding.

Bubble Shrinks to 11

The bottom of the bracket continues to be in flux. After last night's results, I pulled Maryland's bid and gave it to Georgia Tech. I also replaced Texas Tech with Kansas State. I cannot in good conscience leave in Texas Tech, losers of four in a row, over K-State (won 7 straight) who is a full three games clear in the Big XII loss column. View the full Lockbox here.

Gonzaga's AL hopes took another blow last night at Loyola Marymount. This could be the first year in a while that the Zags need to win the WCC tourney.

Tennessee continues to be an interesting test case. Chris Lofton returned last night, but did not have a great game. The Vols still took care of LSU in Knoxville by three. UT stays in for now.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--22 teams look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of them are conference leaders. That means that 11 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--12 other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 23 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 11 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--Virginia 69, at Maryland 65. Cavs appear to be for real, and MD is now 3-6 ACC with a pretty tough skeddie remaining (Duke x2, UNC, FSU, at Clemson still left).
--at Ohio State 76, Michigan 63. Different year, same story for Amaker and Michigan.
--at Tennessee 70, LSU 67. Lofton did return and was still not himself, but it was enough to beat hapless LSU (2-7 SEC!!!).
--at Villanova 56, St. Joseph's 39. Nova looking pretty solid lately.
--BYU 77, at Wyoming 73. Don't underestimate this win for BYU. It's tough to win in Laramie.
BONUS SCORE
--at San Diego State 62, Air Force 41. Losing on the road at SDSU is not terribly surprising, but for razor-sharp AFA to lose by 21 to anybody is a bit of a shock.

Tonight's GOI
--Mississippi State at Alabama. Time for 'Bama to put up or shut up.
--Auburn at Arkansas. Same goes for the Hogs.
--Florida State at Clemson. Tigers find themselves in need of a W. Badly.
--North Carolina at Duke. Have you heard about this game?
--Drexel at Hofstra. Good, clean, CAA fun.
--Kansas State at Kansas. Wildcats looking for that win that puts them in serious bracket contention.
--Georgetown at Louisville. Cards will dedicate the Freedom Hall court to Denny Crum tonight. They need to start cashing in some big wins NOW.
--Illinois at Northwestern. Illini need ANY kind of road win.
--Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. In-state rivalry alert!
--Michigan State at Purdue. Two Big Ten Bubble Boys.
--Bradley at SIU. Braves need a monster finish for any AL hope.
--Southern Cal at UCLA. In-city rivalry alert! A USC win could create a 3-loss logjam at the top of the Pac-10.
--Pittsburgh at West Virginia. 'Eers with a golden opportunity to secure a badly needed signature win.
--Saint Louis at Xavier. Xavier has a slim margin for error for At-Large purposes.

SCKySSiP III/More TBB on WNKY

Apologies for yesterday...it seems my bracket post never made it through Blogger. You can see the bracket post below this one now.

The wheels are in motion for the 3rd installment of the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (ridiculously long name used for effect). The SCKySSiP will likely be an 8-member committee which will replicate the selection process as closely as possible. We will follow the NCAA Selection Criteria to the best of our ability. Give this a read when you have time. It helps to explain how teams get into (or are left out of) the bracket. More on this when the regular season ends.

You can now read my musings on WKU Hilltopper hoops and other sports on WNKY (a local Bowling Green TV station). I'll be writing a blog for them for the rest of the season, and hopefully beyond that. I may even try my hand at covering some Hilltopper baseball and softball later in the Spring.

Last Night's GOI
--at UConn 67, Syracuse 60. Both of these teams are going to need major runs to close the season.
--at Indiana State 59, Northern Iowa 46. Trees toss the first shovel of dirt on UNI's At-Large grave.
--at Texas A&M 100, Texas 82. A&M is driving the Big XII bus.
--at Utah State 75, New Mexico State 63. This makes an At-Large very difficult for NMSU.

Tonight's GOI
--Virginia at Maryland. The Terps have to hold serve at home to stay close to .500 in the ACC.
--Michigan at Ohio State. Amaker's club needs a monster win to restore hopes.
--LSU at Tennessee. Tennessee badly needs Chris Lofton to return.
--St. Joseph's at Villanova. In-city rivalry alert! Mmmmmm...Big Five.
--BYU at Wyoming. Careful, Cougs. Cowboys are 9-1 at home (2-point loss to AFA).

Five Weeks Until SelSun

Here's how the the bracket looks with five weeks to go. Conferences are solidifying a bit, although the ACC and SEC are still a mess. Several teams from those two will likely scrap it out until the end for a limited number of slots. Somebody has to lose those conference games and it's tough to get in with a losing conference record. Are you listening Arkansas? Georgia Tech? Maryland? LSU? Even Clemson?

There was some change at the bottom this week. I took Alabama, Illinois, Michigan State, and Georgia over teams like Kansas State, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Syracuse and New Mexico State.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Maryland
Big East (6): Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame, West Virginia
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, Stanford, Southern Cal, Arizona
SEC (6): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama
Big Ten (6): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois
Big XII (5): Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas
Missouri Valley (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
Mountain West (3): Air Force, UNLV, BYU

Tonight's GOI
--Syracuse at UConn. Two teams that have been heading in the wrong direction.
--Northern Iowa at Indiana State. Panthers probably have to have this game.
--Texas at Texas A&M. Aggies are alone in first place, but Horns can gain a tie with a win.
--New Mexico State at Utah State. NMSU has won 15 of 16, but USU is 9-0 at home.

Weekend Forecast

We have our first real snow here in south central Kentucky today (2-3"). For those of you from snowier parts of the country, three inches of snow pretty much slows things to a halt around here. This is a great weekend to watch hoops if you live in KY.

Last Night's GOI
--Washington State 72, at Arizona 66. Cougars get a golden road win.
--Old Dominion 62, at Drexel 52. Monarchs now alone in 3rd with Drexel 4th in the CAA.
--at UCLA 69, Oregon 57. Bruins hold court and earn the season split.
--at Virginia 68, Duke 66 (OT). Duke was in control for much of the game, but the Cavs were clutch late.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Washington at Arizona. The Huskies have shown signs of life and a win here ties them with Zona in the Pac-10.
--Kentucky at Arkansas. Hogs need this one more and they are at home.
--Virginia Tech at Boston College. These two are currently tied for 2nd in the ACC.
--UNLV at BYU. Cougars must cash in this golden opportunity for a quality win.
--Stanford at Cal. Cal's hopes are slim, so winning home games is imperative.
--UNC-Greensboro at Davidson. UNCG is red-hot and Davidson is a league best 10-1.
--Creighton at Drake. Avoid this land mine, and the Jays are sitting pretty with 4 of their last 6 at home.
--Northern Iowa at Evansville. UNI cannot afford a loss here.
--Tennessee at Florida. Vols are coming off a big win over UGA.
--Clemson at Georgia Tech. Home losses for 2-6 ACC teams are bad. Real bad.
--Missouri State at Indiana State. Bears must be careful on the road here.
--Indiana at Iowa. Hoosiers must beware of post-Wiscy hangover.
--Texas A&M at Kansas. Loser falls out of tie for Big XII lead.
--Loyola (MD) at Marist. Two of the better MAAC clubs.
--Ohio State at Michigan State. Quick turnaround rematch from last weekend.
--LSU at Mississippi State. LSU has to get of the mat VERY soon.
--North Carolina at NC State. In-state rivalry alert!
--Texas Tech at Oklahoma. Raiders have lost two straight.
--Oregon at Southern Cal. Two of the four 3-loss teams in the Pac-10.
--DePaul at Syracuse. Orange need wins of any sort right now.
--Kansas State at Texas. Wildcats have won 6 straight.
--Georgia at Vanderbilt. Both have been pretty hot in the SEC East. UGA was cooled down by Tennessee early in the week, however.
--Louisville at Villanova. Let's see if the Cards are for real.
--Southern Illinois at Wichita State. Shockers have been playing much better of late.

Sunday
--Florida State at Duke. An FSU wins ties them with Duke in the ACC.

Local Store: One Stop Shop

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Where do you go when you need a score?
THE ONE STOP SHOP!
Where do you go for brackets and more?
THE ONE STOP SHOP!
When you're at work burning company time,
Refreshing Yahoo! game scores until you go blind,
All 30 conference tourney brackets in one place,
Will be sure to leave a goofy grin on your face!
THE ONE STOP SHOP!

Hello everyone, and welcome to the One Stop Shop. This is your community market for all your shopping needs.

Our prices are the lowest in town (read: FREE). All it costs you is the 1/1000th of a calorie that you burn clicking your mouse.

What we do ask here at the OSS is that you send a kind email if you find errors on game times, locations, bracket set up, or scores and such. This is a community market, so make it better by being a heady shopper and pointing out errors in a constructive manner. The OSS does have nearly 300 games in 30 tourneys, so mistakes are bound to crop up.

Keep an eye out for our red text specials. Red text at the OSS means that we have not finalized this information. If you have links showing verification for game times or TV not yet cemented in the OSS, please email TBB and let us know.

We are still under construction, but we thought you might enjoy browsing in the month leading up to conference tourney time.

Thanks for shopping with us, and enjoy all the conference tourney brackets in this handy shop.

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THE OOOOONNNNNEEEE, STAHHHHHHHHP, SHOP!

Last Night's GOI
--Creighton 82, at Bradley 71. Big win for the Jays...tremendous blow to Braves.
--at Dayton 84, George Washington 69. A-10 is going to be wild and woolly.
--at Florida 74, Vanderbilt 64. Vandy acquitted themselves well, but UF is not likely to lose in the O-dome.
--at Hofstra 79, VCU 68. This is the pride we expected from the get-go.
--at Indiana 71, Wisconsin 66. Hoosiers score a signature win.
--Alabama 73, at LSU 70. LSU looks dead in the water.
--at Ohio 91, Toledo 80. Bobcats hand the Rockets their first conference loss.
--Ohio State 78, at Purdue 60. Boilers are pretty far out on the fringe.
--Gonzaga 90, at Stanford 86. Zags likely cemented their bid barring multiple WCC losses..
--at Tennessee 82, Georgia 71. No Lofton, no problem. UGA lost its shooting mojo (38%).
--Texas 76, at Texas Tech 64. Apparently, Kevin Durant can play a little basketball.
--BYU 76, at Utah 66. Cougars looking more viable by the day.

Tonight's GOI
--Washington State at Arizona. Zona can tie WaSU in the Pac-10 standings with a win here.
--Old Dominion at Drexel. Nice CAA tilt.
--Oregon at UCLA. They do not get any bigger in the regular season. One seeds for Pac-10 and NCAA tourneys at stake.
--Duke at Virginia. Cavs have won four straight ACC games including two on the road.

Bubble Shrinks to 12

The Bubble shrank from 13 to 12 this week in the Lockbox. This does not mean that it will shrink every week from here on out, but on SelSun there are usually 4-8 slots that are questionable. Usually, 2-3 of those slots are truly up for grabs.

We are far enough into the conference season to start recognizing some trends. Trends like:

1. Illinois is good at home, but bad on the road. The win over Michigan State is great, but the Illini will likely have to find some road wins to make the bracket.

2. Someone has to lose these ACC games. Not everyone is going to make it IN. Right now, Georgia Tech and Maryland are falling behind.

3. As some of the mediocre TV conference teams get ground up by the cream of their conferences, streaking teams from other conferences begin to look more viable as NCAA At-Large selections. New Mexico State and BYU immediately come to mind.

I have made two adjustments since Monday. Syracuse laid an egg at home last night against Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech lost at Wake to fall to 2-6 in league play. I replaced those two with Alabama (NO!!!) and Xavier. With much grumbling, I left Maryland (2-5 ACC) IN for the time being. There is room at the bottom of the bracket for any team with some meat on their schedule who would like to get hot at the right time. Let us hope some Bubble Boys post some nice wins this weekend so teams on the upswing can appear in the bracket on Monday.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--22 teams look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of them are conference leaders. That means that 11 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere. Example: Tennessee has now gone from "virtual lock" to "win games it should" to "Bubble IN" because of Chris Lofton's injury. Losing Lofton for multiple games in the meat of the SEC slate would qualify as "apocalyptic."
--11 other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 22 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 12 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--UNLV 76, at Colorado State 59. Solid win by surging Rebs.
--at Florida State 96, Maryland 79. This puts the 'Noles at .500 in the ACC and pushed MD to 2-5.
--at Illinois 57, Michigan State 50. Illini have four road games left. They need to prove themselves there to be an NCAA team.
--at Manhattan 75, Marist 74. Jaspers successfully completed a comeback late in the game.
--Wichita State 67, at Northern Iowa 61. Shockers may be hitting their stride a bit. Keep an eye on WSU.
--Notre Dame 103, at Syracuse 91. Irish hung a 61-spot on the Orange in the first half.

Tonight's GOI
--Creighton at Bradley. Bradley cannot afford to lose home games in conference.
--George Washington at Dayton. A-10 leading Colonials head to a tough venue.
--Vanderbilt at Florida. How hot is Vandy? This is as good a heat check as any.
--VCU at Hofstra. Rams put their 9-0 road record on the line.
--Wisconsin at Indiana. Monster Big 10 matchup with all kinds of NCAA, conference, and seeding implications.
--Alabama at LSU. Two teams in desperation mode.
--Toledo at Ohio. Two of best in the MAC.
--Ohio State at Purdue. Boilers with a chance to score that signature win.
--Gonzaga at Stanford. Zags could REALLY use a big win for their resume.
--Georgia at Tennessee. Vols are reeling and UGA is rolling.
--Texas at Texas Tech. A Raiders win would even them in the standings with the 'Horns.
--BYU at Utah. In-state rivalry alert!

BracketBusters Announced

BracketBusters pairings were announced last night and they went pretty much to plan. I got 24 of the 26 teams in the TV games correct, and two that I missed make good sense.

ESPN went with "higher conference standing" over "higher RPI" by taking OVC leader Austin Peay and the WAC's Boise State over lower-tier MVC teams Indiana State and Evansville. Good for them. I think it's better that way.

I got 5 of the 13 matchups exactly right (note: ESPN actually announced 14 TV matchups, which is one more than was previously suggested. It seems that CS-Fullerton at Wright State was the "extra" matchup). These five matchups are listed in green. Correct teams are listed in black. Incorrect teams are listed in red. ESPN's matchups not in green are in parentheses.

Southern Illinois at Butler
Northern Iowa at Nevada
Bradley at VCU
Appalachian State at Wichita State
Kent State at George Mason
Utah State at Creighton (Drexel at Creighton)
Drexel at Missouri State (Winthrop at Missouri State)
Winthrop at Hofstra (Holy Cross at Hofstra)
Ohio at Oral Roberts (Utah State at Oral Roberts)
Holy Cross at Indiana State (Ohio at New Mexico State)
Old Dominion at New Mexico State (Old Dominion at Toledo)
Evansville at Toledo (Austin Peay at Akron)
Albany at Akron (Albany at Boise State)

BONUS!: (Cal State-Fullerton at Wright State)

Last Night's GOI
--at Appalachian State 67, College of Charleston 56. App St holds serve at home in this important SoCon contest.
--at Butler 71, Illinois-Chicago 45. Uhh...loss avenged, I guess.
--Pitt 65, at Villanova 59. Nova misses out on a signature win.

Tonight's GOI
--UNLV at Colorado State. Big Mt West matchup; Rams have been good at home (6-1, only loss to Air Force by 6).
--Maryland at Florida State. Two classic Bubble Boys and one will get a big leg up over the other tonight.
--Michigan State at Illinois. Illini need this one a lot more.
--Marist at Manhattan. Winner gets sole possession of 2nd in the MAAC.
--Wichita State at Northern Iowa. Shockers have a lot of work to do, but a road win here would help a bunch.
--Notre Dame at Syracuse. Irish need to prove themselves on the road. A loss here could boot the Orange from Bracketville.

Letters/Weekend Forecast 1/26-128

"Letters! We get letters! We get lots and lots of letters! LETTERS!"

"8 teams from the ACC??? Has any conference ever had 2/3 of its members make the Big Dance?

While I love the ACC and live in ACC country, they are not even the top conference (PAC-10). Maryland is hardly a tournament team and BC just lost a major difference maker."

~Paymon

No, no conference has ever had 2/3 of it's members make the dance. The Big Ten sent 7/11 in 1994, though (61%). That said, the ACC is not likely to send eight. This will sort itself out in the coming weeks.

The ACC actually is #1 in the RPI. And, right now, I think Maryland is a tourney team, although their situation is tenuous. They could be one of the ACC teams that gets squeezed out as the season wears on.

"I think you have Marquette a little too low right now. They should be at least a 4 seed if not a 3. They have 3 top 25 rpi wins away from home (duke and texas tech on neutral floor and at pitt yesterday). They are 6-1 away from home. The only flaw on their resume is a loss to NDSU. When they lost to providence they did not have mcneal and matthews was not 100%."

YoungMUFan4

Marquette is looking more impressive all the time. And, if they win this weekend, they will likely move up again. But, that loss to NDSU was at home in Marquette's own tournament. They have to pay a little for that one.

"Hi there - I'm a frequent follower of your board during NCAA BB season. Why isn't New Mexico St. on the radar screen at all? Thanks."

Anonymous

While the win over Nevada was great and the Aggies have won 14 of 15, they have losses to 200+ teams Loyola Marymount and LA Tech. They also lost to #141 New Mexico. They possess only two top 100 RPI wins. Still, if they maintain this pace of winning (read: nearly ALL), then they will show up at some point. But, they will not be able to erase the fact that they have ZERO top 100 non-conference wins. And, currently, their RPI is only #81. The Aggies are a long shot at this point for At-Large. Beating Nevada again and sweeping USU would help a lot.

"What about Winthrop at High Point? Winthrop is 5-0 in conference, and High Point is 6-0. This is a huge game for the Big South."

Anonymous

Horrendous oversight on my part. I have included it in the GOI roundup below.

Last Night's GOI
--East Tenn St 80, at Belmont 70 (OT). Huge OT win for the Bucs who are now two games clear of the A-Sun field.
--UCLA 62, at Cal 46. Bears have their work cut out for them to make the Show.
--at Duke 68,Clemson 66. Duke gave this game away, then benefited from some extra time on the clock and tore out the Tigers' heart.
--Winthrop 64, at High Point 63. Road wins over your top conference contender go a long way.
--Butler 70, at Loyola (Chicago) 66. See Winthrop vs High Point above.
--at Oral Roberts 73, Oakland 63. ORU takes the outright MCC lead.
--at Stanford 65, Southern Cal 50. Cardinal solidify their position with this one.
--at Washington 89, Oregon 77. If the Huskies find their form, the Pac-10 is going to be wild.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Arkansas at Alabama. Two clubs in severe need of a win.
--North Carolina at Arizona. Massive non-conference tilt.
--Florida at Auburn. Gators have been grinding on the road and Auburn is coming off a lambasting of Bama.
--Air Force at BYU. Tough road test for the Falcons.
--Southern Cal at California. Cal must win their home games to keep hope alive.
--Providence at UConn. Two fringe teams.
--Indiana State at Creighton. Withering Trees really need this one.
--VCU at Drexel. This is as big a conference game as any this weekend.
--Michigan at Indiana. Wolverines need to cash in a big win somewhere.
--East Tenn St at Lipscomb. The Bisons try to bring ETSU back to the field a bit.
--Syracuse at Louisville. Cards can get back into the convo with a win here.
--Ohio State at Michigan State. Teams only get so many chances to score home wins like this.
--Bradley at Missouri State. Loser will have a hard time finding it's way IN on Monday.
--Utah State at Nevada. Aggies have won 5 straight.
--Villanova at Notre Dame. Irish have been very tough at home.
--Illinois at Purdue. Illinois needs to consolidate it's home win over Indiana earlier this week.
--Oregon at Washington State. Important game for Pac-10 positioning.

Sunday
--Boston College at Duke. BC is in dire need of a signature win.
--Virginia at Clemson. Tigers must bounce back from heartbreaking Duke loss.
--LSU at Georgia. LSU is wilting as UGA is flowering.
--Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech. GT needs it more at this point.
--Tennessee at Kentucky. No Lofton will be hard to overcome in Lexington.
--UCLA at Stanford. Cardinal took out Oregon last night.
--DePaul at West Virginia. Both need to get hot immediately.

"Upsets"/Sun Belt Bracket

"Upsets" and Home Teams
I am not one for predicting game results. I have indulged in a little experiment over the last two weeks in regards to picking "upsets." A lot of going 4-0 with these picks was simply picking a solid home team over a team with more national buzz that might be overrated.

How big is the home court advantage? Take these home records into consideration.

1-20 RPI: 218-10 (.956 win %) at home.
21-40 RPI: 213-21 (.9103). 431-31 (.9349) cumulative Top 40.
41-60 RPI: 139-21 (.8688). 570-52 (.9164) cumulative Top 60.
61-80 RPI: 176-24 (.8800). 736-76 (.9064) cumulative Top 80.

I stopped at the top 80 RPI mainly because these are the teams with real At-Large hopes. These are good basketball teams, regardless of conference.

Now, granted, a lot of these home wins are over far lesser teams. And, in the coming weeks, I will try to delve into the numbers a bit more and find out how top 80 teams fare at home against other top 80 teams to get an idea of home court advantage in games between good teams. I am sure Palm or Pomeroy or someone else has good info on this and I'll link it if I find something that will save me a lot of time and work.

For now, let's leave it at this: the top RPI teams play LOTS of home games and they win them at a HIGH clip. That is to be expected. It takes a Herculean effort to beat a good team in their gym. I mainly just wanted to set the table for future discussions about scheduling and home court advantage.

Sun Belt Bracket
I am in the midst of putting together the 2007 One Stop Shop. The Shop will have all 30 conference tournament brackets in simple, logo-free form and will be updated as results are completed during the conference tourney season to keep you up-to-the-minute (OK, maybe not "minute," but it's updated several times per day) on game results. The bare brackets should be up next week or in early February.

For kicks, here is what the Sun Belt tournament bracket would look like if the season ended today.

Last Night's GOI
--VCU 75, at George Mason 62. Rams are 8-0 on the road. THAT is tasty.
--at Georgia 78, Kentucky 69 (OT). Dawgs came from 17 down to pick up a nice win.
--Vanderbilt 64, at LSU 53. LSU is floundering badly. How long will it take for pollsters to see this?
--at Maryland 80, Georgia Tech 65. Terps avoided a 1-5 start and kept hope alive.
--at Mississippi 83, Tennessee 69. Vols need Chris Lofton back sooner rather than later.
--Florida 70, at Mississippi State 67. Gators grind out another on the road.
--Creighton 66, at Missouri State 62. Bears have lost two straight home games in conference. Ouch.
--at Rhode Island 75, UMass 72. Rams are quietly leading the A-10 right now.
--at South Carolina 66, Arkansas 60. Hogs have yet to win a true road game.
--at Texas Tech 70, Texas A&M 68. Raiders are in great shape with this win in tow.
--at Wisconsin 71, Michigan 58. It will be shocking if the Badgers lose at the Kohl Center this season.

Tonight's GOI
--East Tenn St at Belmont. Two of the A-Sun's best.
--UCLA at Cal. Bears could make hay at home here.
--Clemson at Duke. Neither is likely to win the ACC, but both are strong contenders for #2.
--Butler at Loyola (Chicago). Ramblers are 7-1 at home this season
--Oakland at Oral Roberts. HUGE game between MCC leaders.
--Southern Cal at Stanford. Cardinal need to hold serve at home in this one.
--Oregon at Washington. Huskies have to get off the mat soon to make any sort of run.

Lockboxing 1/24

Auburn's shellacking of Alabama boosted my Upset Pick record to 4-0. With any more success, my ego might reach Stephen Colbert/Bill O'Reilly proportions. The dirty secret is that it was not that big of an upset. OK, no one likely saw an 81-57 piledrive coming, but the fact is that Bama is not playing that well. They are just not that good. Auburn is not great, but they are improving.

The Lockbox is updated and I did not make any IN/OUT changes from Monday. I did place a few more teams in lower case black text and a few more in blue text. Several more teams appear to be nailing down their slots early.

There are several TV Land and poll darlings that are nothing more than Bubble Boys in familiar clothes. Roll out the red, bubbly carpet for Alabama, LSU, and Maryland. Even though hordes of writers and coaches (read: SID's) are voting for these teams, they are mere bubble teams. Believe it. Look at their RPI, lack of quality wins, and conference records. Gonzaga is also a bubble team. These preseason darlings have plenty of work to do. UConn and Washington are not even on the radar right now.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--20 teams look to be on track barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Ten of them are conference leaders. That means that 10 At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere. I did downgrade Tennessee from "virtual lock" to "win games it should" because of Chris Lofton's injury. Losing Lofton for multiple games in the meat of the SEC slate would qualify as "apocalyptic."
--11 other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation--mostly because it's only the midpoint of the conference season. Those teams are listed in blue. That accounts for 21 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 13 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--at Auburn 81, Alabama 57. The Tigers romp in a TBB Upset Pick.
--at Boston College 85, Florida State 82. BC holds serve at home and forces FSU further toward the line.
--at Illinois 51, Indiana 43. Illini got the quality win that they desperately needed. Backing this up with a win at Purdue this weekend might make them bracket-viable.
--Villanova 82, at Providence 73. Nova gets a nice roadie. Cats are rolling a bit.
--at SIU 56, Northern Iowa 54. Valley continues to bloody one another. This makes for a three-way tie for first in the loss column (SIU, UNI, Creighton).

Tonight's GOI
--VCU at George Mason. Rams will get a test from a GMU that has won five straight.
--Kentucky at Georgia. After letting Bama off the hook in Tuscaloosa, the Dawgs have a chance for a big win at home.
--Vanderbilt at LSU. Both Bubble Boys need this one badly.
--Georgia Tech at Maryland. The Terps simply cannot start 1-5 in the ACC and call themselves an NCAA team.
--Tennessee at Mississippi. Danger time for UT without Chris Lofton.
--Florida at Mississippi State. Bulldogs could get their hat in the ring with an upset here.
--Creighton at Missouri State. Every Valley game is big.
--UMass at Rhode Island. Two of the three A-10 teams tied for first right now.
--Arkansas at South Carolina. Always have to be careful on the road, Hogs.
--Texas A&M at Texas Tech. In-state rivalry alert! Carries Big XII and NCAA ramifications.
--Michigan at Wisconsin. Wolverines with a chance to greatly bolster their resume.

BracketBusters Update 1/23

The top of the BracketBusters standings remained fairly static and will likely do so until the matchups for the 102 teams are announced next Monday, January 29. The television schedule will be finalized on February 5. Here is an idea on what the TV matchups would look like as of today.

ESPN2 Games
Southern Illinois at Butler
Northern Iowa at Nevada
Drexel at Missouri State
Bradley at Hofstra
Appalachian State at Creighton
Holy Cross at Wichita State

ESPNU Games
Utah State at Indiana State
Ohio at New Mexico State
Winthrop at VCU
Sam Houston State at Long Beach
Evansville at George Mason

ESPN360 Games
Old Dominion at Akron
Albany at Toledo

It looks like four or maybe five games will actually have bracket impact. That Butler/SIU matchup will be a meat grinder (pace of play: #331/#324).

Tonight's GOI
--Alabama at Auburn. In-state rivalry alert! Also, let's make this an official TBB Upset Pick.
--Florida State at Boston College. Two ACC teams scrapping for slots pretty low in the bracket.
--Indiana at Illinois. Illini need this one to bolster NCAA hopes. They are clearly out at this point.
--Villanova at Providence. Cats try to keep momentum going after a big week.
--Northern Iowa at SIU. UNI leads the MVC by one in the loss colum over SIU and Creighton.

Seven Weeks Remaining

We are less than seven weeks from Selection Sunday. The conference slate is quickly approaching the midway point and races are beginning to take form. Bracket Board Bias has been severely cut back in this bracket. It is always tough at the bottom, but I am a sucker for Top 50 wins, so teams with bulky win resumes won out over some other hopefuls even if they had some bad losses early on.

So, in this week's bracket, I like Syracuse, Boston College, Creighton, and Vanderbilt as my last four IN. They edged out LSU, Drexel, Bradley, Georgia, California, Illinois, Purdue, and West Virginia among some other more fringe-y teams.

Not including LSU will undoubtedly send some folks into a tizzy, but while they did beat Texas A&M, they also are 3-5 against the Top 100 RPI and they were demolished by 20 at Arkansas this weekend. Plus, those losses to Wichita State and Washington do not look so "quality" now. They just have not done enough.

Vandy is in because they have beaten Tennessee, Alabama, and Kentucky in the last 10 days. Keep an eye on the 'Dores. The SEC East is packed with NCAA hopefuls.

BracketBusters standings are on tap for tomorrow with a Bubble Boy Breakdown and Lockbox update coming Wed.

Oh, and let me take a moment to trumpet my 3-0 Upset Picks last week. New Mexico State did indeed take care of Nevada on Saturday. I'm sure I'll lose my mojo at some point.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (8): North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Florida State, Boston College
Big East (6): Pitt, Notre Dame, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Washington State, Southern Cal, Stanford
SEC (6): Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Big XII (5): Kansas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
Big Ten (5): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan
Missouri Valley (4): Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Creighton
Mountain West (2): Air Force, UNLV

Tonight's GOI
--UConn at Louisville. Both of these teams look like NIT teams right now. A win here could kickstart their NCAA hopes a bit.
--Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. In-state rivalry alert! Bedlam: hardwood style.

Weekend Forecast 1/19

"I've got a good idea. Let's pretend we're real human beings." ~Ty Webb, Caddyshack (1980)

Southern Cal's win over Arizona last night makes me 2-for-2 in upset picks this week. While I'm on a hot streak, I'll try to voice my upset pick daily if there is one out there. And I think there is this weekend...read on.

Also, get out and enjoy a live game this weekend. There are a LOT of games and likely one close to you. Buy and ticket and get out to a local game this week if you can even if it is "small college" game. I like hoops on TV as much as the next person, but we miss out on the best stuff if we slack in attending live events. Go forth and cheer, eat popcorn, and interact with real humans.


Last Night's GOI
--at Creighton 65, Bradley 54. Big win for the Jays over a fellow Valley Bubble Boy.
--Northern Iowa 75, at Missouri State 65. Yep, it's going to get messy in this league.
--at Oregon 66, Stanford 59. Ducks continue to roll.
--at Southern Cal 80, Arizona 73. This makes me two-for-two on upset picks this week.
--at Xavier 83, UMass 77. Two evenly matched teams and the home team won. See yesterday's post.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Georgia at Alabama. Dawgs won at The Ark earlier this week. Bama is coming off their bloodbath at Vandy.
--LSU at Arkansas. LSU needs to win a quality road game and the Hogs are smarting from the UGA home loss.
--Wichita State at Bradley. Every Valley team must feel like they must win these games.
--Boston College at Clemson. Clemson tries to bounce back from two straight ACC losses.
--SIU at Creighton. It's big. We get it. All Valley games are important at this point because they all feel like they are on the Bubble.
--Wisconsin at Illinois. Illini need to find some big wins and they do not get much bigger than this.
--Purdue at Michigan. Winner will likely be in the bracket on Monday.
--Nevada at New Mexico State. Dangerous WAC tilt for the Pack. Let's make this the Upset Pick of the Weekend.
--Georgia Tech at North Carolina. Good match up, though no team can realistically expect to win in Chapel Hill this season.
--Indiana State at Northern Iowa. See any other Valley game above.
--California at Oregon. Bears need some quality W's.
--Oklahoma State at Texas A&M. Powerhouse Big XII clash.
--Kansas at Texas Tech. Red Raiders need to cash in at home against top comp.
--Arizona at UCLA. Clash of the Titans, Pac-10 style.
--Texas at Villanova. Nova could really do a week's work; they beat ND earlier and could score a big non-conference win here.
--Washington at Washington State. When was the last time the Huskies were a decided dog in this game?
Sunday
--Missouri State at Evansville. Roberts Stadium is a dangerous venue when Eville has any kind of team...and they do this season.
--Marquette at Pitt. MU will try to stamp themselves as the decided #2 in the Big East by beating #1.
--Maryland at Virginia Tech. Two volatile ACC clubs.

RPI Purpose and Conference Road Losses

Packer's RPI Gaffe
Last weekend during a telecast, CBS threw up a graphic with some of the favorites to win the national title accompanied with their current RPI. Florida was at #32 at the time (#30 now) and their relatively low RPI compared to Ohio State, North Carolina, and others stuck out like a sore thumb. This prompted analyst Billy Packer to say, "Find me 31 teams in America that are better than Florida." And, this comment forces me to once again post on the purpose of the RPI.

The RPI is NOT a ranking of the best teams. It is not solely a measure of who is playing the best. It is not an indicator of great defenses, offenses, coaches, or any other aspect of the game.

The RPI is a tool that measures how well a team has performed against it's given schedule. It is all about wins and losses. Playing teams with good records helps; playing teams with bad records hurts. A team's own wins and losses count a great deal, but the difficulty of a team's schedule plays a huge role as well. Florida's first six opponents currently have a combined record of 19-59. See, it does not matter to the RPI that UF is a great team. What the RPI sees is that Florida played two teams that are currently 0-15 (North Florida and Prairie View A&M) and that destroys your strength of schedule. We can all see that UF is likely going to be a 1-seed. We do not need the RPI for that.

The RPI is merely a tool used by the selection committee to see how teams have fared against their schedule. Teams with good RPI's are sometimes left out (see #21 Missouri State and #30 Hofstra last year) and teams with iffy RPI's sometimes get in (#58 Seton Hall last year). Packer, and many others, just do not seem to get it. This is part of the reason why he will have another apoplectic meltdown on Selection Sunday.

Death, Taxes, and Conference Road Losses
Check out these scores from last night:
at UALR 71, Western Kentucky 69
at Auburn 83, Tennessee 80
at Charlotte 80, Dayton 59
at Evansville 75, Southern Illinois 68
at Florida State 82, Virginia Tech 73
at Villanova 102, Notre Dame 87
at Vanderbilt 94, Alabama 73

All of these results are somewhat surprising and a few are downright shocking. But that's the nature of playing on the road in conference. ANY conference road win should be viewed as precious gold. Over the last two nights, home teams are 56-17. Let that sink in for a second. It is very tough on the road in conference play.

So, road winners (most notably, Georgia over Arkansas and North Carolina over Clemson), bask in the glow of these outstanding accomplishments. And, go back to your home courts and defend them with your lives.

Last Night's GOI
--Georgia 67, at Arkansas 64. Dawgs are officially in the NCAA picture.
--North Carolina 77, at Clemson 55. Tigers do not look ready for UNC-level teams.
--at Florida State 82, Virginia Tech 73. 'Noles get a desperately needed big win.
--at LSU 62, Mississippi 55. Tigers are sort of treading water.
--at Vanderbilt 94, Alabama 73. My upset warning of the night last night came through in a BIG way.
--at Villanova 102, Notre Dame 87. Cats got that signature win they were looking for.
--at Wisconsin 69, Purdue 64. Boilers played tough, but came up a bit short.

Tonight's GOI
--Bradley at Creighton. Both are looking like Bubble Boys at this stage, so this is a big one.
--Northern Iowa at Missouri State. Another important Valley tilt--especially for UNI.
--Stanford at Oregon. Ducks are tough at home, but the Cardinal are hot.
--Arizona at Southern Cal. My Official Upset Warning of the Night. This would not be a huge one, but an upset nonetheless.
--UMass at Xavier. Probably the two best teams in the A-10.

Bubble Boy Breakdown 1/17

I introduced the Lockbox last week, but this is the first Bubble Boy post. Every Wednesday, from here through Selection Week, TBB will break down the current Bubble situation.

The Lockbox has been updated to reflect teams standings as of today. I have made two changes regarding IN/OUT teams since Monday. Gonzaga's loss to St. Mary's pushes them out of first place in the WCC and out of the bracket. Also, I placed Indiana State in the bracket instead of California. It was simply a change of heart when looking at the profiles this morning.

There are a lot of teams with huge preseason expectations that are currently outside looking in or are in real danger of missing the tournament. UConn and Washington have much work to do to make a bracket appearance. LSU has not really done anything to validate their lofty status although they are in currently in the bracket. Maryland, Florida State, Georgetown, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Illinois, and Gonzaga are all merely Bubble teams at this point. There is a lot of sorting out to be done in the coming weeks.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--13 teams look to be on track to get in barring an apocalyptic event. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Seven of them are conference leaders. That means only six At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing at this juncture. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--18 other teams look pretty safe, but need more validation--mostly because it's still early in the conference season. Those teams are listed in blue. Four of them are conference leaders, so that means 14 more At-Large bids are tentatively taken. That makes 20 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 14 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

My annual "Purpose of the RPI" post is coming tomorrow. This is sparked by something Billy Packer said this past weekend and was reinforced in a couple of other games that I watched this week.

Last Night's GOI
--at Memphis 79, UAB 54. CUSA looks like a one-bid league this season.
--at Oklahoma State 105, Texas 103 (3OT). What a treat! I truly hope you stayed up for the ending. Some really bad crunch-time decisions was overshadowed by incredible clutch shot-making by both teams.
--at Pitt 63, UConn 54. Huskies might get there eventually, but they need a BIG conference season.
--at Virginia 103, Maryland 91. Cavs needed it more and they got it.

Tonight's GOI
--Georgia at Arkansas. Dawgs could push toward the bracket with a win here.
--North Carolina at Clemson. Tigers have the Heels at home. This should tell us if Clemson is going to contend for the ACC crown.
--Virginia Tech at Florida State. Red-hot Hokies meet the desperate 'Noles. FSU needs this one badly.
--Mississippi at LSU. Rebs can get into the picture with a win here.
--Alabama at Vanderbilt. My upset warning of the night.
--Notre Dame at Villanova. Cats need a big win for their resume.
--Purdue at Wisconsin. Boilers could make a huge statement in a tough venue...but it's unlikely.

BracketBusters Standings 1/16

"My bills are all due and the babies need shoes, but I'm busted
Cotton is down to a quarter a pound and I'm busted
I've got a cow that went dry and a hen that won't lay
A big stack of bills that get bigger each day
The County will haul my belongings away! I'm busted!"

~Johnny Cash, "Busted" (At Folsom Prison, 1968)

The ESPN BracketBusters match ups will be announced on January 29. Nearly a full third of the NCAA hoops nation (a whopping 102 teams) will be taking part in this year's event. This gigantic slate has led to criticism, but having more teams helps ensure some meaningful games at the top for ESPN. It also means a lot of meaningless games (about 40) in regards to bracket impact. Nevertheless, count me in the "pro-buster" camp for the time being.

The top six games will be on ESPN2. Five more games will be shown on ESPNU, with two more broadcast on ESPN360.

I have created a page showing the current BracketBusters standings. They are listed by current RPI from best to worst for both the home and away teams. I will update the standings again next Tuesday.

As of today, the TV match ups might look something like this:

Southern Illinois at Butler (ESPN2)
Drexel at Missouri State (ESPN2)
Appalachian State at Creighton (ESPN2)
Bradley at Nevada (ESPN2)
Old Dominion at Wichita State (ESPN2)
Northern Iowa at New Mexico State (ESPN2)

Ohio at Indiana State (ESPNU)
Holy Cross at Hofstra (ESPNU)
Utah State at VCU (ESPNU)
Winthrop at Marist (ESPNU)
Hawaii at Long Beach (ESPNU)

Sam Houston at Siena (ESPN 360)
Albany at Oral Roberts (ESPN360)

You can read more about Buster here.

The season's first Bubble Boy breakdown comes tomorrow. Thursday, I get a chance to tell Billy Packer why he is wrong about the RPI. That's always fun.

Tonight's GOI
--UAB at Memphis. Blazers seem to be down from recent seasons, but this is one of the few real threats Memphis will face in CUSA.
--Texas at Oklahoma State. Big game for Big XII positioning.
--UConn at Pitt. The Huskies need to show that they can at least hang with the Big Easy cream.
--Maryland at Virginia. Cavs have lost 5 of last 8 and need a big win to get them back on track.

Bracket Update 1/15

There is still some BBB (Bracket Board Bias) in this bracket, but the amount of BBB decreases weekly. I will not go into great detail here, because a full Bubble Boy update and Lockbox will come on Wednesday. Three things about this bracket:

1. The 9 and 10 seeds are almost completely reversed due to bracketing rules. This is the most I have ever had to "swap seeds" to get it to work.

2. The last four slots were a toss-up among about nine teams: I went with Cal, Syracuse, Georgetown, and DePaul and left out Purdue, Indiana State, Villanova, Illinois, and Michigan.

3. I doubt the bracket will stay this power conference heavy all season. The ACC will not get eight teams in, more than likely.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (8): North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Florida State
Big East (7): Pitt, Notre Dame, Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown, Syracuse, DePaul
Pac-10 (7): UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Washington State, Southern Cal, Stanford, California
SEC (6): Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas,
Big XII (5): Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech,
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State
Missouri Valley (3): SIU,Missouri State, Creighton,
Mountain West (2): Air Force, UNLV

Weekend Forecast 1/12-1/14

So many conference games are important at this stage of the season. It's still early enough that just about everyone has hope in conference play. This list will likely shrink a bit as the season wears on, but this early jockeying in conference play matters so much come March.

For example, take the Vanderbilt-Georgia game on Saturday. Those teams have Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee twice. They also play Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU. Vandy and UGA probably expect to beat the lower tier of SEC teams, but wins against the list above would be considered upsets. They are caught in the middle. Hence, this looks like a huge game for both. Gotta have wins against fellow conference Bubble Boys.

In fact, there are a host of games that fit this mold. Enjoy them.

Tonight
--Lipscomb at Belmont. I believe they call it The Battle for the Boulevard down in Nashville. One of these two will likely represent the A-Sun in the NCAA Tourney.
--Bucknell at Holy Cross. HC has a chance to send a message about who is the favorite in the Patriot this season.
--Creighton at Northern Iowa. Match ups of MVC contenders are precious regarding Valley standings and Bubble status.

Saturday
--Virginia at Boston College. Two teams that look quite Bubbly at this point.
--Washington at California. Both teams need it badly. Huskies need to make a statement if they are to be considered an elite team this year.
--Vanderbilt at Georgia. In the stacked SEC, these are must wins for teams in the second tier.
--Florida State at Georgia Tech. Two ACC clubs on the way up this season.
--Nevada at Hawaii. It's never easy on the island.
--Bradley at Indiana State. Two MVC teams both looking like Bubble Boys.
--West Virginia at Marquette. Both could use quality wins, but Marquette needs it more since it's a home game.
--Clemson at Maryland. Tigers look to go 18-0.
--Oklahoma State at Nebraska. Huskers have not lost at home this season.
--Tennessee at Ohio State. Monster non-conference match up.
--Drexel at Old Dominion. Two CAA contenders jockey for position.
--Georgetown at Pitt. Hoyas need a statement win.
--Michigan at Purdue. Interesting game. Purdue was embarrassed by Indiana this week and this is the type of game that Michigan has to win to be considered a true NCAA team at this point.
--Gonzaga at Santa Clara. Let's see if the Broncos are going to challenge the Zags for the WCC crown this season.
--UCLA at Southern Cal. Huge opportunity for the Trojans to solidify their NCAA status a bit.
--Missouri State at SIU. These two figure to be at the top of the heap in the Valley.
--Washington State at Stanford. Cardinal could use a signature win. Cougars have been impressive to this point in Pac-10 play.
--Villanova at Syracuse. Orange in dire need of a big win.
--BYU at UNLV. These two figure to duke it out for 2nd in the Mt West behind AFA.
--North Carolina at Virginia Tech. VT usually plays big in big games.
--Air Force at Wyoming. Cowboys took out UNLV in Laramie earlier this week.

Sunday
--Oregon at Arizona. Man, nearly every game in the Pac-10 seems important this weekend.
--Duke at Miami-FL. Important for Duke to get that first ACC win.
--Illinois at Michigan State. These perrennial powers' NCAA outlook is far from rosy at this stage. They need to make bank.

Lockbox Updated

The Lockbox color-codes teams based on where they stand at this point. A team only achieves "LOCK" (BLACK CAPS) status when they could survive losing out and still make the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, no team is quite there yet. However, there are a few teams that are IN barring an apocalyptic event. Only something like losing two starters to injury or forgetting how to dribble could make teams like North Carolina, Florida, and Pitt miss at this point. Still, I do not hand out LOCK statuses like candy. There will be plenty of slots come Selection Sunday that will not be LOCKS.

The color key is on the Lockbox page.

The Weekend Forecast comes tomorrow. TBB will resume its mid-season form on Monday:

Mondays: New bracket.
Tuesdays: Bracket Buster standings.
Wednesdays: Bubble Boy breakdown.
Thursdays: Wild Card.
Fridays: Weekend Forecast.

I do have a 2-week old at home these days, so please bear with me if I skip a day here or there.

Last Night's GOI
--at Bradley 48, SIU 46. Braves get a much needed big win.
--Marquette 73, at UConn 69. Note to poll voters: UConn is not even a NCAA team right now, much less Top 25.
--Pitt 59, at DePaul 49. DePaul's late surge was not enough.
--at Georgia Tech 74, Duke 63. Jackets score a big win and drop the Dukies to 0-2 in the ACC.
--at Illinois 74, Iowa 70. Hawkeyes are quickly heading into desperation mode.
--at Indiana 85, Purdue 58. OUCH. Hoosiers are hitting their stride (won 6 of 7)
--at Indiana State 68, Wichita State 63. The Trees are now a viable At-Large candidate. Shockers are squandering some big early season wins by falling to 1-4 in the Valley.
--at Kansas 87, Oklahoma State 57. When KU has it going, they are as good as anyone. A most impressive display last evening.
--at Texas 88, Missouri 68. Mizzou has serious road work to do.
--at Wyoming 86, UNLV 76 (OT). The TBB knew what it was doing when it put this game on the GOI. The Cowboys are TOUGH in Laramie.

Tonight's GOI
--Washington State at California. The Bears need this one more.
--Hofstra at Drexel. Two of the CAA undefeateds.
--Memphis at Houston. One of the few games that Memphis should fear in CUSA.
--Washington at Stanford. Both severely need solid win.

First In-Season Bracket

The first in-season bracket projection is up. For future reference, simply click the "current bracket" link to the right under the Bracketology section.

A heavy dose of bias and benefit of the doubt exists here. I left in Creighton, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Michigan State, Georgetown, and Wichita State. There are strong arguments to be made for their exclusion. I kept out UConn, Illinois, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Providence, DePaul, Indiana State, Syracuse, and Boston College. Some of those teams have as good a case as some that I have in. It was simply a matter of personal taste at this point in some of these cases. This will sort itself out a great deal in the coming weeks.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (7): North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Big East (6): Pitt, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette
Big Ten (6): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State
SEC (6): Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, LSU
Missouri Valley (5): Missouri State, SIU, Northern Iowa, Creighton, Wichita State
Big XII (5): Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas
Pac-10 (5): UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Washington State, Southern Cal
Mountain West (2): Air Force, UNLV

Tonight's GOI
--SIU at Bradley. Bradley needs some big wins to bolster at-large hopes.
--Marquette at UConn. UConn has ZERO wins vs the top 100 RPI.
--Pitt at DePaul. Demons could make a huge statement here at home.
--Duke at Georgia Tech. See DePaul.
--Iowa at Illinois. Both of these clubs are scrambling a bit.
--Purdue at Indiana. This rivalry game means more than it has in a long, long while.
--Wichita State at Indiana State. The Trees welcome the suddenly needy Shockers.
--Oklahoma State at Kansas. For the inside track to the Big XII title.
--Missouri at Texas. Tigers are 11-3, but have no road wins.
--UNLV at Wyoming. Cowboys have not lost at home, so the Rebs should beware.

Out of the Void

Now the earth was formless and empty, darkness was over the surface of the deep...~Genesis 1:2

Out of the shapeless mass of November and December comes the beginnings of an identifiable creation in January. No, I'm not ready to unveil an in-season bracket yet. That will likely come early next week on Monday or Tuesday. But, today, I think we can scratch up a list of teams expected to make the Dance barring major nosedives or signigicant injuries.

This list is based on one question:

Would I be more than a little surprised if this team missed the NCAA Tourney based on performance to this point, their existing talent, and their current resume?

I answered "yes" when looking at these teams.

ACC: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Maryland, Florida State
Big XII: Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas A&M
Big East: Pitt, Notre Dame, West Virginia
Big Ten: Wisconsin, Ohio State
CUSA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
MVC: SIU, Wichita State
Mt West: Air Force, UNLV
Pac-10: UCLA, Arizona, Oregon
SEC: Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU
WAC: Nevada
WCC: Gonzaga

There are 30 teams from 12 conferences on this list, meaning that 18/34 of the At-Large bids look to be taken at this point. Granted, this is merely a list of likely NCAA teams in early January.

There are a number of teams that can join this list by accomplishing a bit more over the next few games (Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Villanova, Michigan State, and Georgia Tech come to mind) or bouncing back from a recent slide (Washington, Marquette).

Some teams listed here will almost assuredly fall off the list as conference play separates wheat and chaff. This is just an early stab to identify the contenders.

A full bracket is coming on Monday or Tuesday.