Lockbox and Bubble Boys

An updated Lockbox is ready for perusal. Given Ohio State's loss last night and 2-5 record in their last seven, I put Illinois State in for them today.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--16 teams have LOCKED their spots.
--7 other teams are in fantastic shape. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Eleven of the LOCKS or virtual locks are conference leaders. That means that twelve At-Large bids are spoken for at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing even with a few games to go. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--I have eight teams listed in blue this week. One of those is a conference leader. With the "virtual locks" added to this group, that accounts for 20 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 14 slots are up for grabs. The bottom is rough and the Bubble is very crowded. Some of this will sort out in the last couple of weeks. Hopefully, some of these teams will clear things up with a strong finish.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--SIU 71, at Bradley 60. Egyptian Dogs possess amazing resiliency. Here they come.
--at Indiana 72, Ohio State 69. Bucks are fading away into Boliva (thanks, Mike Tyson).
--BYU 70, at New Mexico 69 (OT). Lobos let the Big Fish get away.
--at UNLV 68, San Diego State 58. Rebels strengthen their hand. They are in decent shape at this point.
--at Vanderbilt 72, Tennessee 69. Yesterday, TBB said: "'Dores are 17-0 at home and Tennessee is playing at #1 for the first time. It has all the makings for an upset." It happened. "Memorial Magic" is real.

Tonight's GOI
--Miami-FL at Clemson. Both are on track, but both still have work to do.
--Creighton at Illinois State. Both need a terribly strong finish, and ISU is in a better overall position.
--Mississippi at Kentucky. Both must have it.
--Oklahoma at Nebraska. Huskers are showing life, so OU needs to proceed with caution.
--Texas Tech at Texas A&M. Aggies cannot afford a 4th straight loss at this juncture.

A few more teams LOCKED up bids in the last few days. These teams could lose out and still get in:

Wisconsin, Xavier, Stanford

A few more teams are right on the cusp (Marquette, Vandy, Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame, maybe a couple of others).

A full, monster Bubble Boy breakdown comes tomorrow.

Tonight's GOI
--SIU at Bradley. Salukis are quietly building steam. If they can win out until the Valley final, they could be viable.
--Ohio State at Indiana. At some point, tOSU will have to win a big game.
--BYU at New Mexico. Lobos could make themselves viable with a win here.
--San Diego State at UNLV. Neither can really afford a loss, although UNLV's position in stronger.
--Tennessee at Vanderbilt. 'Dores are 17-0 at home and Tennessee is playing at #1 for the first time. It has all the makings for an upset.

Bracket Update 2/25

Link to the new bracket is ready.

It continues to be a nasty affair at the bottom. When Kentucky finds their way in with THREE top 100 wins, you know it's bad. But, honestly, who would you put in for UK at this point? Seriously, send me emails. This should be fun. Remember, UK has committee representation. I know that it's not supposed to matter, but here's what representation did to last year's seeding. Granted, this is where I had teams seeded, so your mileage may vary.

I wanted to put Illinois State in, but I simply do not think they have good enough wins and they have no committee representation. It could be a one-bid year for the Valley for the first time in a long time. Now, if they can close by beating SIU and Creighton, they are back in business.

So, I took Arizona State, Saint Joseph's, Arkansas, Maryland, Baylor, Wake Forest, Villanova, Ohio State (!) and Kentucky (!!!) over teams like Illinois State, New Mexico, Dayton, Florida, Rhode Island, Creighton, Ohio, Oregon, and Cal. It's not pretty down here. Every season has a couple of rough ones at the bottom, but it seems the quality of the 10, 11, and 12 seeds is lower this season.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): Georgetown, Louisville, UConn, Notre Dame, Marquette, Pitt, Villanova, West Virginia
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona, Southern Cal, Arizona State
Big XII (6): Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Baylor
ACC (6): Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami-FL, Maryland, Wake Forest
SEC (5): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Kentucky
Big Ten (5): Purdue, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Saint Joseph's, UMass
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Mountain West (2): UNLV, BYU

Weekend Forecast 2/22-23

TON'S of big games this weekend.

Saturday
--Kansas State at Baylor. Bears need to hold serve at home.
--Brown at Cornell. If Bears are going to stay in it, they need to win here.
--Arkansas at Kentucky. UK wins here, they are back in serious contention.
--Mississippi at LSU. Rebels cannot afford losses like this one.
--Tennessee at Memphis. You may have heard about this one.
--Maryland at Miami-FL. Terps are in need after that home loss to VA Tech.
--Wisconsin at Ohio State. Bucks sure could use a big one.
--BYU at San Diego State. Cougs need to keep rolling in case they slip in the MtW tourney.
--Oklahoma at Texas. This would like lock up the Sooners.
--Oregon at UCLA. Ducks need it badly.
--UConn at Villanova. Cats are not dead yet and this could make them very vialble.
--Arizona at Washington State. Zona still has some work to do.
--Drake at Butler. The Coffee Cakes need it more.
--George Mason at Ohio. Both are very fringe Bubble Boys.
--Creighton at Oral Roberts. Same here.
--Kent State at St. Mary's. Flashes must win to harbor AL hopes.
Sunday
--Xavier at Dayton. Flyers REALLY need it to stay on the good side of the Bubble.
--Wake Forest at North Carolina. Would carry the Deacs into safety.
--Syracuse at Notre Dame. Orange are in dire need.
--Louisville at Pittsburgh. Cards now looking to snap up a 2/3 seed.
--Saint Joseph's at Rhode Island. Whoever loses is in a dicey situation.
--Cal at Stanford. Bears almost have to win.

One Stop Shop Up!

I'm still in mourning over the WKU loss to South Alabama last night.

So, I guess I'll drown my sorrows in the 2008 One Stop Shop. If you find errors, feel free to kindly pass them in a nice email.

One Stop Shop

Later today or tomorrow I will have a link up to the first draft of the One Stop Shop. It will have all 30 conference tourney brackets in one handy, dandy location. They are simple and clean with no ads and they will updated very often during conference tourney. Let's go ahead and congratulate Davidson for clinching the 1-seed in the SoCon (applaud now) and Drake for capturing the top line in the Valley (applaud now, but not as vigorously due to the Bulldogs recent struggles).

Also, congratulate (?) Oregon State for clinching the 10-seed (last place) in the Pac-10. With a 15 game losing streak including 0-13 in conference, the worst RPI of any Big Six team (#255), no wins over any team with an RPI better than 266 (Idaho State), the Beavers have certainly earned this ten seed.

Tonight's GOI
--Dayton at LaSalle. Flyers could use a road win to get to .500 in conference.
--Pitt at Notre Dame. Hefty Big East matchup.
--UMass at Rhode Island. Both need it. URI must defend the home court. UMass can ill afford to fall to 5-7 in the A10.
--Oregon at Southern Cal. Again, both are needy--Ducks moreso.
--Arizona State at Washington State. Devils are capable of beating anyone, but that RPI has got to come up a bit (#75) to harbor real AL hopes.
--South Alabama at WKU. Here is your game of the night. The winner is likely going to win the regular season title and grab the conference tourney 1-seed. Both are Bubble Boys, too, although USA's profile is MUCH stronger than WKU's. Toppers MUST win to have any AL chance.

More Hay in the Barn

Duke and Memphis LOCKED their spots last week. I come bearing Lockbox-shaped gifts for these teams:

North Carolina, Kansas, Texas, UConn, Georgetown, Louisville, UCLA, Tennessee

These teams have done enough even if they lost their last few games.

A few other teams are pretty close (Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, Xavier, Notre Dame, Butler, Washington State, St. Mary's). A win or two will do it for these teams.

Also, I made slight adjustment in who's IN/OUT. With Syracuse's loss this week, I put South Alabama IN for the Orange.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--10 teams have LOCKED their spots.
--15 other teams are in fantastic shape. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Ten of the LOCKS or virtual locks are conference leaders. That means that fifteen At-Large bids are spoken for at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing even with a few games to go. This could change (I'm looking at you, Drake!), but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--I have six teams listed in blue this week. One of those is a conference leader. With the "virtual locks" added to this group, that accounts for 21 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 13 slots are up for grabs. The bottom is pretty rough and the Bubble is getting crowded. Some of this will sort out in the coming weeks.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Forty-Seven Days

My latest entry at WNKY.net focuses on WKU's long winning streak. Their 11-game string now trails only Memphis (25) and Davidson (15) in longevitity.

New Lockbox with major movement coming tomorrow.

Bracket Update 2/18

Oy, it's a wreck at the bottom of today's bracket. I reluctantly put in Wake Forest, Syracuse, Arizona State and Dayton (!!!) over teams like South Alabama, Miami-FL, UMass, Houston, Mississippi, Florida, NC State, Cal, and Temple.

I hope some of this is sorted out in the next couple of weeks. It is less than four weeks until Selection Sunday.

Oh, and Temple fans, you are most welcome for the jinx I threw on them last week. The Owls still have time.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): Georgetown, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse
Pac-10 (7): UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona, Southern Cal, Arizona State, Oregon
Big XII (6): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma
SEC (4): Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Big Ten (5): Purdue, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
Atlantic 10 (5): Xavier, Saint Joseph's, Rhode Island, Dayton
ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Maryland, Wake Forest
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Mountain West (2): UNLV, BYU

Tonight's GOI
--Syracuse at Louisville. Cards are rolling along and are expected to win here. Cuse could do a lot to solidify themselves with a good road win.
--Xavier at Rhode Island. First of a huge three-game home stand for Rams (X, UMass, Saint Joe's).
--Texas A&M at Texas. Aggies dropped a puzzler at home to OK State on the weekend. Horns are groovin' right now.

Forecast Delayed

Too little time today due to a friend's unexpected and potentially serious illness and other general busy-ness. I'm on the road tonight, so we may have to skip the forecast this week.

New bracket and lots of sorting to do next week, though.

First LOCKS and Temple

Congrats to Duke and Memphis! They have been upgraded to LOCK status in the Lockbox. No team ever achieving LOCK status at TBB has ever missed the Dance. Duke has 10 ACC wins, leads the conference by two games, yada, yada, yada. Memphis is STILL undefeated in mid-February.

You might scoff and say, "Duh!", regarding Duke and Memphis being LOCKS. But, the term "lock" is thrown around SOOOOOO casually these days. TBB means it. A team does get LOCK status until they can lose out the rest of the way and still get into the bracket. These two have done that.

Temple
Do you like horses that come off the pace? This is your hoss, right 'cheer. They are tied with Saint Joseph's for 2nd in the loss column, one game ahead of Rhode Island, two over UMass, and three over Dayton. While they had a rough stretch early on and their 13-10 overall record is not that impressive, they have won 7 of 9. Further, they have played the #22 toughest slate in the country. Their RPI is currently 63, but they have room to grow. Have a look at their remaining games.

at Dayton
at St. Bonaventure
FORDHAM
CHARLOTTE
at Saint Joseph's
DUQUESNE
at LaSalle

If they can snip flailing Dayton on the road on Saturday, they will be at 14-10 with six games left. From there, it's defend the home court, win expectedly vs St. Bonnie and LaSalle, and maybe take their medicine at Saint Joe's. That's going to give them a 19-11 record, a healthy RPI, multiple top 50 RPI wins, a top 2 or 3 finish in the A10, and a 10-2 record in their last 12...if they can pull it off.

It must begin with a win at Dayton this weekend, and the Flyers are desperate. Can they do all of this? Maybe not. But, their recent play and their position in the A10 suggests that we should keep one eye on Fran Dunphy's bunch.

Tonight's GOI
--at Alabama 76, Mississippi 67. Welcome to Sweatyville, Rebs.
--Xavier 62, at Charlotte 60. X escapes a tough road test.
--at UConn 84, Notre Dame 78. This puts G'town alone in first and creates a 3-way tie for second (UConn, ND, Louisville).
--at Duke 77, Maryland 65. That's just Duke being Duke.
--Wisconsin 68, at Indiana 66. Hoosiers have much larger worries than a 2-point home loss to Wiscy.
--at Memphis 68, Houston 59. Tigers trailed at half before remembering that they are a junior NBA team.
--New Mexico 73, at San Diego State 63. Lobos are still a very long shot for an AL.
--at SIU 65, Drake 62. My money would have been good (see yesterday's GOI). Like grandma always says, "Never count out an Egyptian dog."
--at Temple 92, Rhode Island 89 (OT). Has anyone noticed that Temple is becoming a viable AL team?
--at Tennessee 93, Arkansas 71. The SEC has one legit Final Four threat. Also, with Kentucky, Florida, and Mississippi faltering badly this week, their bid count could take a monster hit depending on the weekend games.

Tonight's GOI
--Cal at Arizona. Both could really use, but Cal needs it more.
--Stanford at Arizona State. Devils are likely playing for a spot in Monday's bracket.
--NC State at Boston College. Pack has to win these kind at this stage.
--South Alabama at Middle Tennessee. Raiders are playing better and host Belt brass USA and WKU this week. Jags better be careful here.
--

Big Blown

Well, this article had more mojo before Kentucky was decapitated at Vandy last night, but here is a piece I wrote yesterday for WNKY, a local TV station here in Bowling Green, KY.

Last Night's GOI
--at Purdue 60, Michigan State 54. As mentioned yesterday, this was not an upset and was expected.
--Marquette 89, at Seton Hall 64. SHU was the Big East's "it" team for awhile, but their AL hopes look to be over without a monster finish.
--at Vanderbilt 93, Kentucky 52. I have watched a lot of Kentucky basketball in my life, and I do not remember a domination as thorough as this one when there was this much on the line for UK. It was 32-6 to open the game and 41-11 at half. Unequivocal devastation.

Tonight's GOI
--Mississippi at Alabama. The Rebs have zero SEC road wins. That will have to change if they are going to dance.
--Xavier at Charlotte. Fairly tough roadie for streaking Muskies.
--Notre Dame at UConn. Irish are fighting to stay in a tie with G'town at the top of the conference. Huskies are just one game back.
--Maryland at Duke. Terps are playing well and could really solidify themselves with an unlikely win here.
--Wisconsin at Indiana. Badgers can drag Hoosiers down into a tie for 2nd and leave Purdue alone at the top.
--Houston at Memphis. The Cougars last real chance to make themselves a viable AL candidate.
--New Mexico at San Diego State. Neither is likely to gain an AL bid, but one team's hopes will almost certainly be extinguished tonight.
--Drake at SIU. The demise of the 12-12 Salukis has been well-documented, but no Valley team has beaten them at home and there is a lot of pride on the line against Johnny-come-lately Drake. If Drake is going to lose in conference, this is where I'd put my money.
--Rhode Island at Temple. Resurgent Owls can pick up a nice win at home...and get into AL consideration.
--Arkansas at Tennessee. Two of the top three teams in the SEC.

Lockbox Update 2/12

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--21 teams are in fantastic shape. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Nine of them are conference leaders. That means that twelve At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing even with several games to go. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Some of the "projected in, but need more validation teams" either moved up to virtual locks or slid back onto the Bubble this week. I have 11 teams listed in blue this week. One of those is a conference leader. With the "virtual locks" added to this group, that accounts for 22 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 12 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Last Night's GOI
--at Georgetown 55, Villanova 53. Cats were game, but this dropped them to 4-7 in the league.
--at Nevada 85, Utah State 80. Pack keeps regular season WAC title hopes alive.
--at Texas 72, Kansas 69. 'Horns positioning themselves for a shot at Big XII title. But, K-State is now alone in first.

Tonight's GOI
--Michigan State at Purdue. Sparty has played only five true road games: Bradley, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State. They lost to Iowa and Penn State. No reason to expect they will win at Purdue.
--Marquette at Seton Hall. SHU needs it badly to stay in the AL convo and Marquette has not been tearing it up lately. Interesting match up.
--Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Tonight's game is going to tell us a lot about Kentucky. The win over Tennessee in Rupp was big. But, their last four wins are against teams that are 9-25 in SEC play. A win over Vandy in Nashville will give them some legitimacy.

Bracket Update 2/11

The bottom was quite difficult in today's bracket. I took teams like Dayton, UMass, West Virginia, Syracuse, UNLV, and Florida over teams like NC State, Arizona State, Oregon, Illinois State, Houston, Creighton, Seton Hall, and Cal.

With BracketBusters tracking behind us, we might take a look at the Lockbox tomorrow instead of Wednesday. Several teams have moved into "virtual lock" territory.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (9): Georgetown, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse
Big XII (6): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma,
Pac-10 (5): UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona, Southern Cal
SEC (5): Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, , Mississippi State, Florida
Big Ten (5): Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State
Atlantic 10 (5): Xavier, Rhode Island, Saint Joseph's, Dayton, UMass
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Maryland
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Mountain West (2): UNLV, BYU

Tonight's GOI
--Villanova at Georgetown. Nova probably needs this one to keep hope alive. They cannot afford to drop to 4-7 in the league. And, they will have to deal with an angry Hoya team in DC.
--Utah State at Nevada. If the Pack has any hope of staying in the conference title race, they must win here.
--Kansas at Texas. Did someone say, "Big Monday?"

Weekend Forecast 2/8-2/10

Last Night's GOI
--at Belmont 85, Jacksonville 78. Bruins draw even in the loss column in the A-Sun.
--at UMass 78, Rhode Island 76. UMass stays in the at-large picture.
--Western Kentucky 94, at North Texas 84. I doubt WKU can get an at-large bid, but they are playing the best hoops in the Belt these days and have won 9 straight.
--Portland State 71, at Northern Arizona 68. The Vikings are your clearcut Big Sky favorite.
--at Pacific 78, CS-Northridge 73. Pacific ties CS-N for Big West lead.
--at Pittsburgh 55, West Virginia 54. Pitt gets a needed win and WVU falls to 5-5 in the Big East due to losing 3 of 4.
--at Stanford 72, Oregon 43. Death, taxes, and Oregon underachieving.
--UCLA 67, at Washington State 59. Wash State now has to be considered the 4th or 5th best team in the Pac-10.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Saturday
--Mississippi at Arkansas. Rebels need to avoid falling to 3-5 in SEC.
--Oregon at Cal. Ducks are on their last (webbed) leg.
--Bradley at Illinois State. Braves are your Valley sleeper. They have won 7/8 and only lost at home to Drake by 1. I do not think a Bradley win is an upset here.
--Baylor at Kansas. Bears can make a huge statement with a win here, though it's not likely.
--Georgetown at Louisville. Louisville is searching for that signature win and they have a big fish at home.
--NC State at Maryland. Winner here solidifies their bracket spot on Monday.
--Marquette at Notre Dame. Irish try to stay within one game of G'town and could tie with a win if UL can top the Hoyas.
--North Texas at UALR. There are five teams in the Belt West tie or within one game of the lead. Here are two--and the two best of the West, in TBB's opinion.
--Seton Hall at Villanova. SHU cannot afford any slip-ups.
--Southern Cal at Washington State. Cougars have lost 3 straight at home and trail USC by a game in the standings.
--Purdue at Wisconsin. Two of the Big Televen's three one-loss teams.
Sunday
--Clemson at North Carolina. Tigers are playing well and UNC is coming off a home loss.
--Indiana at Ohio State. Hoosiers narrowly escaped at Illinois and OSU is better than the Illini.
--Siena at Rider. Saints have payback on their mind after Rider blew them off the court a few games back.
--UMass at Temple. Minutemen have a dangerous game on their hands.
--Saint Joseph's at Xavier. Great A-10 matchup--#1 vs. #2 in the current standings.

Daily Grind

Last Night's GOI
--at Baylor 80, Texas Tech 74. Baylor holds serve at home and stays in the fight for a protected seed.
--Maryland 70, at Boston College 65. BC looks dead in the water.
--at Dayton 69 ,Charlotte 64. Flyers get back on track after some struggles.
--at Duquesne 102, Saint Joseph's 88. Tough loss for Hawks, but not a resume killer.
--Vanderbilt 67, at Georgia 59. 'Dores get a game they had to win.
--Florida State 62, at Miami-FL 55. Canes are now 2-6 in ACC.
--Duke 89, at North Carolina 78. Now more questions about who is the ACC's best. Duke is two games clear of the field.
--Texas 64, at Oklahoma 54. Big roadie for the Horns.
--Notre Dame 95, at Seton Hall 69. Irish are quietly building a fine, fine resume. Welcome to the "virtual lock" club, ND.
--UConn 63, at Syracuse 61. In a theme of the night, the Huskies get a nice road win.

Tonight's GOI
--Jacksonville at Belmont. Bruins can draw even in the loss column for the A-Sun lead with a win.
--Rhode Island at UMass. UMass needs this one, because are 3-5 in their last 8.
--Western Kentucky at North Texas. WKU has won 8 straight and is one of the two elite teams in the Belt. NT is a great home team (9-1) and is clawing toward the top out West.
--Portland State at Northern Arizona. NAU can draw even at the top of the Big Sky with a win.
--CS-Northridge at Pacific. Tigers can draw even at the top of the Big West with a win. I sense a pattern here.
--West Virginia at Pittsburgh. Both believe they are NCAA teams. Both need to convince me.
--Oregon at Stanford. Flailing Ducks need it.
--UCLA at Washington State. Cougars have fallen from "elite" status. A win here would help to restore them.

Bubble Boy Breakdown/Lockbox

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--18 teams are in fantastic shape. They are listed as "virtual locks" in lower case black font in the Lockbox. Nine of them are conference leaders. That means that nine At-Large bids are virtual locks at this point. It is hard to imagine any of these teams missing even with several games to go. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Some of the "projected in, but need more validation teams" either moved up to virtual locks or slid back onto the Bubble this week. I have 15 teams listed in blue this week. One of those is a conference leader. With the "virtual locks" added to this group, that accounts for 23 At-Large bids that are not "bubble slots." Hence, 11 slots are up for grabs.
--The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.

Tonight's GOI
--Texas Tech at Baylor. Raiders have a new coach, and need to start piling up some wins.
--Maryland at Boston College. Terps could solidify themselves a bit and BC needs this one badly to keep hope alive.
--Charlotte at Dayton. Flyers need to right the ship, but 49ers are not dead either. There's a lot at stake in this one.
--Saint Joseph's at Duquesne. Tough roadie for Hawks.
--Vanderbilt at Georgia. 'Dores are 0-4 in SEC road games.
--Florida State at Miami-FL. Both fighting for their lives.
--Duke at North Carolina. Heels can draw into a tie and have a leg up in the tie-breaker with a win. Duke can put UNC two games back.
--Texas at Oklahoma. Both jockeying for seeding.
--Notre Dame at Seton Hall. Two of the hotter Big East teams of late.
--UConn at Syracuse. Orange could use a big win. UConn is now trying to contend for a top 3 NCAA seed.

BracketBuster Breakdown

Here are the official BracketBusters pairings. The teams I correctly projected are in green. If I missed the matchup, the correct matchup is in green and my projection is in black. Teams I missed are in red.

I projected 25/28 teams correctly, and the misses were at the bottom.

Drake at Butler
Kent St at St. Mary's
Miami-OH at Valparaiso
UC-Santa Barbara at Utah State
George Mason at Ohio (Illinois State)
Wright State at Illinois State (SIU)
Creighton at Oral Roberts (Ohio)
VCU at Akron (Oral Roberts)
Davidson at Winthrop (Akron)
Nevada at SIU (Cleveland St)
Marist at Cleveland State (Appalachian State)
UW-Milwaukee at Bradley (Rider)
Siena at Boise State (Winthrop)
Rider at CS-Northridge

Teams I missed:
Niagara, Northern Iowa, Appalachian State. I think Appalachian State got hosed. They are higher than both Boise State and CS-Northridge in the RPI and they are leading the SoCon North. Plus, they have won 9 of 10. I am glad to see that those two ( BSU and CS-N) got in over Northern Iowa, though.

Also, UW-Milwaukee? They are mired in the middle of the Horizon and they are not hot either, coming off back-to-back losses. I think they are still living on their past seasons a bit.

But, overall, no HUGE surprises--although I am sure there are some unhappy campers in Boone, NC.

Bracket Update 2/4

It is now less than six weeks until Selection Sunday!

Here is today's bracket. At the bottom, I took West Virginia, Maryland, BYU, and Cal over teams like Ohio, George Mason, Oregon, Illinois State, Wake Forest, Miami-FL, UMass and Mississippi State and a few other fringe teams.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (9): Georgetown, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, Seton Hall
Big XII (6): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Baylor
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, Southern Cal, California
SEC (5): Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Florida
Big Ten (5): Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Maryland
Atlantic 10 (4): Xavier, Rhode Island, Saint Joseph's, Dayton
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Mountain West (2): UNLV, BYU

One Stop Shop
Want to hear the most exciting news? Work on the One Stop Shop has begun! Just like the last three years, you will be able to access all 30 conference tourney brackets in one handy link on this site.

We are less than one month away from conference tournament time. Personally, I think conference tournies, Selection Sunday, and the first weekend of the NCAA Tourney make up the best sports time of the year.

Tonight's GOI
--UNC-Greensboro at GA Southern. Both are trying to break into the top 100 RPI and UNCG is in that death struggle in the SoCon North.
--Louisville at Marquette. 2/3 of the three-loss Big East teams currently tied for third. The loser probably gives up hope of catching Georgetown.
--Longwood at NJIT. A combined 2-43, and NJIT is 0-20. But, they have Longwood at home with a chance to toss their bagel.
--Villanova at Saint Joseph's. Oh, Big Five basketball. Why do you torture a Kentucky boy with your faraway goodness? Hawks have won 10 of 11 and Nova's struggles are well-documented.
--Marist at Siena. Both recently owned by MAAC-leading Rider, but both are still just one game back.

Final BracketBusters Standings/Projections

Here are the final BracketBusters standings.

And, here are my best guesses at the matchups.

ESPN2 (6)
Drake at Butler
Kent St at St. Mary's
George Mason at Illinois State
Creighton at Ohio
VCU at Oral Roberts
Davidson at Akron

ESPN Classic (1)
Wright State at SIU

ESPNU (5)
Nevada at Cleveland St
Miami-OH at Valparaiso
Marist at Appalachian State
UC-Santa Barbara at Utah State
Rider at Bradley

ESPN360 (2)
Niagara at Northern Iowa
Siena at Winthrop

Weekend Forecast 2/1-2/3

Sometime this weekend, I will also post my final BracketBuster's standings and predictions. ESPN will announce the official pairings on Monday.

Last Night's GOI
--at Austin Peay 92, Murray State 87. The Govs stopped the red-hot Racers and maintained their OVC lead.
--at Chattanooga 96, GA Southern 91. Chatty maintains a one game lead in SoCon North.
--at Duke 92, NC State 72. It really does seem like UNC, Duke, and everyone else in the ACC.
--at North Carolina 91, Boston College 69. Yeah. What I just said.
--at North Texas 70, South Alabama 68. We warned you that the Mean Green was tough at home (now 9-1). This is USA's first Belt blemish and it drops them into a tie with WKU in the Belt East.
--at Notre Dame 81, Providence 74 (OT). Friars are sliding off the Bubble.
--Arizona 80, at Southern Cal 69. Cats are a dangerous, DANGEROUS team that are putting it together right now.
--at UCLA 84, Arizona State 51. Devils lose fourth straight, and they lost HUGE.
--at Wisconsin 62, Indiana 49. Kohl Center is a tough venue, and IU has looked vulnerable in their last couple of outings. Their best win is still Illinois State.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Saturday
--Florida at Arkansas. One will solidify themselves as a legit NCAA team with a win here.
--Davidson at Chattanooga. SoCon's divisional leaders.
--Marquette at Cincinnati. Suddenly, no one wants to play the Bearcats.
--Boston College at Clemson. There are FIVE ACC teams at 3-3. Here are two of them.
--Pittsburgh at UConn. To stay in the "separation group" at the top of the Big East.
--Seton Hall at Georgetown. SHU has won five straight.
--Maryland at Georgia Tech. Two more 3-3 ACC teams.
--Drake at Indiana State. Trees are 9-0 at home. Drake is 10-0 in the Valley.
--Tennessee at Mississippi State. Dogs just took a beating at Arkansas, but have a monster home game here that would heal the wounds.
--West Virginia at Providence. Both need it, but Friars need it more.
--Dayton at Rhode Island. Massive A-10 tilt.
--Rider at Siena. Winner gets first all alone in the MAAC.
--Baylor at Texas. Horns win would pull them into a tie with Baylor at 4-2.
--Oklahoma at Texas A&M. Aggies need to hold serve at home.
--Arizona at UCLA. Clash of titans that are both playing well.
--Winthrop at UNC-Asheville. The biggest game no one will be talking about.
--Nevada at Utah State. A Pack win would tie them for first in the loss column.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Classic Big East Bubble Boys.
--Stanford at Washington State. Cougars cannot afford a loss here if they have Pac-10 title hopes.
Sunday
--Wisconsin at Minnesota. Gophers have to make a move soon to get into the conversation.
--Wake Forest at NC State. ACC Bubblers.