Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Adventures in Mis-Seeding

To start, let me say that I can certainly be wrong about any given team's seeding. So can any bracketologist. That said, the lists below show the differences in seeding for the 18 teams that the committee placed more than two seed lines away from what I had projected. Also included are the two teams that the committee put IN that I left out. What I am looking for here are patterns:

Vanderbilt +2. SEC commish on the committee.
Virginia +2. Virginia AD on the committee.
Purdue +2. Ohio State AD on the committee.
Indiana +3. Ohio State AD on the committee.
Gonzaga +3. No rep on the committee.
Long Beach +2. UC-Riverside AD on the committee.
Nevada +2. No rep on the committee.
Albany +2. No rep on the committee.
Butler +3. Horizon AD on the committee.
Arkansas (got IN). SEC commish on the committee.
Stanford (got IN). UCLA AD on the committee.

UNLV -2. Utah AD was on the committee (Mountain West).
BYU -2. See above.
Creighton -3. No Valley rep.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -2. No Southland rep.
Louisville -2. No Big East rep.
Marquette -2. No Big East rep.
Villanova -2. No Big East rep.
Syracuse (left OUT). No Big East rep.
Drexel (Left OUT). George Mason AD on the committee.

Only two of the Big Six conferences did not have representation: the Big XII and the Big East. The Big XII seemed pretty cut and dried: Kansas 1/2 seed, Texas A&M 2/3, Texas 3/4, Texas Tech as a bubble team that expected to be IN, and Kansas State and maybe Oklahoma State as Bubbly Boys that expected to be OUT. The Big East was trickier and, in my opinion, all of the teams above were underseeded or left out. Both Indiana and Purdue seem overseeded to me.

In fact, of the teams seeded lower by the committee than projected, only 3/9 had committee representation. Of the teams seeded higher by the committee than projected, 8/11 did have committee representation. As I said yesterday, this is not to say that the committee is "dirty." But, I do think it is inaccurate to say that "friends on the committee" does not matter. It only makes sense that if Syracuse and Arkansas are vying for one of the final slots, it is going to help to have the SEC commish on the committee. He or she will have special knowledge about the Hogs that no one in the room can provide regarding the Orange. There is no need for drastic change or alarm, but having representation on the committee DOES matter.

Tomorrow morning, I will post my bracket picks which are probably the least helpful or meaningful part of what I try to do here. But, it is part of the fun, is it not? And, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament is the best weekend in sports in this writer's humble opinion.