Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Updated Lockbox 2/28

The LOCKS are flowing now in the Lockbox. More coming as teams cross that "could lose out and still make it" line.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could miss in March, but most are a win away at this point.
--I have two other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but losing out could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Monday, February 27, 2012

One Stop Shop

The One Stop Shop is up! The tourneys beginning today and in the next few days are ready to go, and I will be filling in and cleaning up the others as the seeds firm up and the start dates approach.

Happy conference tourney season! The Big South gets it rolling tonight with High Point/Gardner-Webb in the 8/9 game and VMI/Radford in the 7/10 tilt.

One Stop Shop, brackets and the Lockbox will be updated as need warrants and time permits.

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Bracket Update 2/25

A tweaked bracket is up. I moved West Virginia down a couple of lines after losing last night. The trend is not good for the 'Eers.

Other "last few IN" included Iowa State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Texas, Washington, Northwestern, Colorado State, and Arizona. Plenty of teams are alive and well for a bid.

A Lockbox update will come tomorrow at some point.

Friday, February 24, 2012

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Lockbox Update 2/21

I have updated the Lockbox. Welcome your first LOCKS of the 2012 bracket. Many others are just a win away from obtaining this status. In fact, many more are probably there, but LOCK status is not given away flippantly.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--22 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total meltdown at this point.
--I have four other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday, and that number is down by two from last week. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Buzzer Bludgeoned

My recap of Saturday's SC-Upstate at Lipscomb tilt housed at the Mid-Majority.

Saturday, February 18, 2012

2/18 Bracket Update

A new bracket is up.

It's ugly at the bottom. Some 5-8 Big Ten teams are in there and that won't stand. They will have to get closer to .500 or be left out, I'll wager.

I am a bit dressed for time at the moment, so the conference breakdown can be seen in the forthcoming Lockbox later today.

Also, I'll be traveling to the SC-Upstate at Lipscomb game tonight with my five-year-old son for some non-WKU action and will have some thoughts on that one.

Happy BracketBuster Day!

Friday, February 17, 2012

On Reading Personalized Sweater Vests

My take (from very good seats!) on last night's WKU victory over FAU.

Pre-weekend bracket and updated Lockbox coming late tonight or early tomorrow.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

UPDATED LOCKBOX

HAPPY #ALL CAPS DAY. HERE IS AN UPDATED LOCKBOX.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--21 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total departure from what they have shown to this point.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 23 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at a robust 13 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday, and that number is down by one from last week. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Paging Alan Thicke

My write up of Thursday's WKU at MTSU contest via the 800 Games Project at the Mid-Majority.

Wednesday, February 08, 2012

Bracket Update 2/8

The new bracket is up.

It seems that Kentucky, Syracuse, and Ohio State are strengthening their grip on 1-seeds. It also seems likely that if Missouri, Kansas, or Baylor can win the Big 12 outright and go deep in the conference tourney, they would have the inside track on the last 1-seed. Duke's road win at UNC is huge, and both of those teams are still in the mix. It is hard to imagine any other team jumping all of those clubs for the final #1.

At the bottom, I took Minnesota, Xavier, Miami-FL, Northwestern, BYU, NC State, Purdue, Colorado State, and Seton Hall over a group that included Dayton, Cincinnati, Mississippi, Texas, UNI, Arizona, Arkansas, and Wyoming among others.

Lockbox update coming tomorrow or Friday. I will also make an 800 Game Project trip and write-up for the WKU at Middle Tennessee tomorrow night.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown

Big Ten (9): Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern

Big East (8): Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, West Virginia, Notre Dame, UConn, Seton Hall

ACC (6): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, NC State, Miami-FL

SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Big 12 (5): Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State

Mountain West (4): UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico, Colorado State,

A-10 (3): Temple, Xavier, Saint Louis

West Coast (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

CUSA (2): Memphis, Southern Miss

Sunday, February 05, 2012

Friday, February 03, 2012

2/3 Lockbox

A bit of tweaking has occurred since Wednesday's bracket.

IN: Washington, Northwestern

OUT: California, Oklahoma


The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--20 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total departure from what they have shown to this point.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble (I'm looking at YOU, Alabama) or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 23 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at a hefty 14 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Wednesday, February 01, 2012

2/1 Bracket Update

This week's bracket is up, although I had to finish as results from Wednesday night roll in (not condsidered). I wound up taking Saint Louis, Xavier, BYU, Iowa State, New Mexico, Mississippi, UMass, Notre Dame and Colorado State from a group that also included Cincinnati, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, Washington, Arkansas, Texas and a smattering of others.

In overall profile, I rather like Cincinnati and Northwestern, but frankly, both are fatally flawed at this stage. The Bearcats have an RPI of 98, with a loss to Presbyterian. Northwestern is 2-6 in league play. If the season ended today, I simply see no way those sins get overlooked.

Full Lockbox coming late tomorrow or on Friday.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown

Big Ten (8): Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota

Big East (8): Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia, Notre Dame

SEC (6): Kentucky, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida, Mississippi

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Baylor, Missouri, Kansas State, Iowa State

Mountain West (4): UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, New Mexico

A-10 (5): Dayton, Temple, Xavier, Saint Louis, UMass

ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State

West Coast (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

CUSA (2): Memphis, Southern Miss