Sunday, March 13, 2011

Final Bracket

Here is my final bracket projection. I took Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, Colorado, Penn State (still playing), and Clemson as my last five, but there are a number of teams that could easily slide in depending on what the committee favors this year.

Also, our SCKySSiP Mock Committee yielded this S-Curve. Again, this is NOT a projection, but a replication of the selection process (or as close as we can get to replicating it).

Just a little over 3 hours until we see the real deal.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

SCKySSiP Mock Committee

The SCKySSiP (SKISS-ip) is in full swing, so most of my bracketing time is spent managing that process. An update on that process will come late tonight.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Bracket Breakdown 3/10

The One Stop is up to date as is the Lockbox, which reflects the updated bracket.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Georgetown, Notre Dame, UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
ACC (6): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson
Big 12 (6): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big Ten (5): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan
Mountain West (3): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV
Pac 10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga


The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--20 teams are LOCKS at this point. More will achieve this status as the tourneys play out.
--22 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point. Several are a win away from LOCK status.
--I have 3 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but could use a win in their conference tourney to avoid the Bubble. That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

Updates 3/8

Could not get to a bracket today. Too much going, including the SCKySSiP 6.0 kickoff. Our mock committee is "meeting" by electronification, so that's taking some time, too. Hopefully, a full bracket update comes tomorrow. But, the Lockbox and One Stop have been updated.

Terriers and Peacocks?

Neither mascot will incite fear in the masses, but these critters can dance. Congrats to Wofford (SoCon) and Saint Peter's (MAAC). They have their golden tickets.

The Lockbox and One Stop are up to date. Full bracket coming later today or tonight.

Sunday, March 06, 2011

First Tickets Punched

Congrats to Morehead State (OVC), UNC-Asheville (Big South), and Belmont (A-Sun). So far, all the teams in the bracket are within a few hours drive of TBB's home base in Bowling Green. In Belmont's case, it's only one hour, and rest assured that some Big Conference U. coach is going to break into a cold sweat when they see Belmont pop up as their 12-13 seed.

One Stop is up to date.

Thursday, March 03, 2011

One Stop Updated

One Stop Shop has been updated. This is the last of the daily reminders. It will be updated daily/nightly, so just hit the link on the right.

Lots of Bubble turmoil last night. When that happens, I am loathe to make quick trigger changes. What is clear is that Georgia and Richmond got the double dose goodness of winning a game and having a lot of Bubble teams that were IN take a loss. Those two have to be feeling pretty good this morning. A loss at Alabama (Georgia) or Duquesne (Richmond) isn't likely to kill your season. One more win of any sort LOCKS Georgia (and they may be there already). Richmond still has work to do, but they got considerable help last night.

I tinkered with the Lockbox a bit, and may make some IN/OUT changes later.

Bubble Tonight
--More conference action in the American East, A-Sun, Big South, Missouri Valley, Northeast, and Ohio Valley.
--UCLA at Washington. UCLA is all but a lock. Washington could take a massive step toward solidifying their spot with a win. Otherwise, they remain scarily close to the Bubble's edge.
--Tennessee at South Carolina. Vols do not have that much room to spare. They need to take care of the Gamecocks or join Washington in "need some wins" mode in the conference tourney.

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

One Stop, Lockbox Updated

The One Stop Shop is up to date through last night's conference tourney results. Tourney action continues in the A-Sun, OVC, and Patriot League tonight.

Lockbox has also been updated.

Bubble Tonight
--North Carolina at Florida State. 'Noles could all but seal it up with a big home win.
--St. Louis at Dayton. Flyers must have it.
--Richmond at Saint Joseph's. Spiders cannot afford any bad losses.
--Colorado at Iowa State. Buffaloes need to consolidate couple of solid, recent home wins with a road win over a lesser team.
--Cincinnati at Marquette. Marquette would have to feel solid if they could hold serve tonight.
--Minnesota at Northwestern. Feels like a must win for the Gophers.
--UAB at Southern Miss. Gigantic repercussions in CUSA standing and tourney as well as the larger Bubble.
--Utah at Colorado State. Rams have to pick up a few wins after blinking at Air Force last time out.
--LSU at Georgia. Dawgs can probably afford a loss or two, but this one would hurt.

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

One Stop Shop Is Rolling

The One Stop Shop is up to date through tonight's conference tourney results. Thus begins the best three weeks in sports.

Bracket Update 3/1

Updated bracket is up. Yes, that's Colorado in there. Yes, that's Butler in there, too. I took those two along with Memphis, Boston College, and Michigan State as the true bottom. Those bottom five could be shifted in or out pretty easily with teams like Dayton, Clemson, Michigan, Penn St, Colorado State or Baylor. Very fluid at the bottom.

Teams like Virginia Tech, Richmond, Washington, Illinois and maybe a couple of others are certainly in danger if they lose, but they can likely stay in if they win barring massive bid-stealing in the conference tourney.

I also moved BYU to the 1-seed line. And, the Lockbox is starting to fill up a bit. I have 20 teams LOCKED, and there are several more that will reach that status with one more win.

Finally, a shout out to Milwaukee, who came from off the pace to nip the Horizon front-runners and tie atop the league, earning the conference tourney 1-seed in the process. They closed with a 9-1 finish to the season.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Georgetown, Notre Dame, UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big 12 (6): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big Ten (5): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State
ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College
Mountain West (3): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV
Pac 10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion
CUSA (2): UAB, Memphis
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Horizon (2): Milwaukee, Butler

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--20 teams are LOCKS at this point, and that number will rise pretty rapidly as the last few games play out.
--23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point. Several are a win away from LOCK status.
--I have 3 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.