Updated Lockbox 2/28

The LOCKS are flowing now in the Lockbox. More coming as teams cross that "could lose out and still make it" line.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could miss in March, but most are a win away at this point.
--I have two other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but losing out could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

One Stop Shop

The One Stop Shop is up! The tourneys beginning today and in the next few days are ready to go, and I will be filling in and cleaning up the others as the seeds firm up and the start dates approach.

Happy conference tourney season! The Big South gets it rolling tonight with High Point/Gardner-Webb in the 8/9 game and VMI/Radford in the 7/10 tilt.

One Stop Shop, brackets and the Lockbox will be updated as need warrants and time permits.

Bracket Update 2/25

A tweaked bracket is up. I moved West Virginia down a couple of lines after losing last night. The trend is not good for the 'Eers.

Other "last few IN" included Iowa State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Texas, Washington, Northwestern, Colorado State, and Arizona. Plenty of teams are alive and well for a bid.

A Lockbox update will come tomorrow at some point.

Bracket Update 2/25

An updated bracket is up. I'll flesh out the details a bit as time permits on the weekend.

Lockbox Update 2/21

I have updated the Lockbox. Welcome your first LOCKS of the 2012 bracket. Many others are just a win away from obtaining this status. In fact, many more are probably there, but LOCK status is not given away flippantly.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--22 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total meltdown at this point.
--I have four other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday, and that number is down by two from last week. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Buzzer Bludgeoned

My recap of Saturday's SC-Upstate at Lipscomb tilt housed at the Mid-Majority.

2/18 Bracket Update

A new bracket is up.

It's ugly at the bottom. Some 5-8 Big Ten teams are in there and that won't stand. They will have to get closer to .500 or be left out, I'll wager.

I am a bit dressed for time at the moment, so the conference breakdown can be seen in the forthcoming Lockbox later today.

Also, I'll be traveling to the SC-Upstate at Lipscomb game tonight with my five-year-old son for some non-WKU action and will have some thoughts on that one.

Happy BracketBuster Day!

On Reading Personalized Sweater Vests

My take (from very good seats!) on last night's WKU victory over FAU.

Pre-weekend bracket and updated Lockbox coming late tonight or early tomorrow.

UPDATED LOCKBOX

HAPPY #ALL CAPS DAY. HERE IS AN UPDATED LOCKBOX.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--21 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total departure from what they have shown to this point.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 23 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at a robust 13 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday, and that number is down by one from last week. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Paging Alan Thicke

My write up of Thursday's WKU at MTSU contest via the 800 Games Project at the Mid-Majority.

Bracket Update 2/8

The new bracket is up.

It seems that Kentucky, Syracuse, and Ohio State are strengthening their grip on 1-seeds. It also seems likely that if Missouri, Kansas, or Baylor can win the Big 12 outright and go deep in the conference tourney, they would have the inside track on the last 1-seed. Duke's road win at UNC is huge, and both of those teams are still in the mix. It is hard to imagine any other team jumping all of those clubs for the final #1.

At the bottom, I took Minnesota, Xavier, Miami-FL, Northwestern, BYU, NC State, Purdue, Colorado State, and Seton Hall over a group that included Dayton, Cincinnati, Mississippi, Texas, UNI, Arizona, Arkansas, and Wyoming among others.

Lockbox update coming tomorrow or Friday. I will also make an 800 Game Project trip and write-up for the WKU at Middle Tennessee tomorrow night.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown

Big Ten (9): Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern

Big East (8): Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, West Virginia, Notre Dame, UConn, Seton Hall

ACC (6): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, NC State, Miami-FL

SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Big 12 (5): Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State

Mountain West (4): UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico, Colorado State,

A-10 (3): Temple, Xavier, Saint Louis

West Coast (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

CUSA (2): Memphis, Southern Miss

1,000 Interim Coach Big Heads

My write-up on last night's WKU victory over South Alabama via the 800 Games Project over at the Mid-Majority.

2/3 Lockbox

A bit of tweaking has occurred since Wednesday's bracket.

IN: Washington, Northwestern

OUT: California, Oklahoma


The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--20 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total departure from what they have shown to this point.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble (I'm looking at YOU, Alabama) or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 23 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at a hefty 14 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

2/1 Bracket Update

This week's bracket is up, although I had to finish as results from Wednesday night roll in (not condsidered). I wound up taking Saint Louis, Xavier, BYU, Iowa State, New Mexico, Mississippi, UMass, Notre Dame and Colorado State from a group that also included Cincinnati, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, Washington, Arkansas, Texas and a smattering of others.

In overall profile, I rather like Cincinnati and Northwestern, but frankly, both are fatally flawed at this stage. The Bearcats have an RPI of 98, with a loss to Presbyterian. Northwestern is 2-6 in league play. If the season ended today, I simply see no way those sins get overlooked.

Full Lockbox coming late tomorrow or on Friday.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown

Big Ten (8): Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota

Big East (8): Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia, Notre Dame

SEC (6): Kentucky, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida, Mississippi

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Baylor, Missouri, Kansas State, Iowa State

Mountain West (4): UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, New Mexico

A-10 (5): Dayton, Temple, Xavier, Saint Louis, UMass

ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State

West Coast (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

CUSA (2): Memphis, Southern Miss

Lockbox Update 1/26

There has been major Bubble struggles this week, so this Lockbox has several teams "IN" that were not in Tuesday's full bracket.

IN: Oregon, New Mexico, Texas, Saint Louis

OUT: Marshall, UCF, Iowa State, Colorado State

Northwestern and Arkansas were close.


The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--18 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total departure from what they have shown to this point.
--I have six other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble (I'm looking at YOU, Alabama) or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 13 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday.. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket Update 1/24

This week's bracket is up. It is still very fluid at the bottom, as it always is this time of year. I wound up taking Cincinnati, BYU, UCF, Iowa State, Mississippi, Marshall, NC State, and Colorado State from a group that also included New Mexico, Northwestern, Northern Iowa, UMass, Texas, Oregon, Stanford and a smattering of others.

Kansas and Ohio State moved onto the 1-seed line, as Baylor and Duke dropped down.

Full Lockbox coming late tomorrow or on Thursday.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown

Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota

Big East (8): Syracuse, Georgetown, Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia, Marquette, Louisville, Cincinnati

SEC (6): Kentucky, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida, Mississippi

ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, NC State

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Baylor, Missouri, Kansas State, Iowa State

Mountain West (4): UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State

CUSA (4): Memphis, Southern Miss, Marshall, UCF

West Coast (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU

A-10 (3): Dayton, Temple, Xavier

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

First Full Lockbox

The season's first full Lockbox is up. For the uninitiated, this organizes teams by conference and is color-coded to reflect each team's "safety" in regards to the bracket. It is still early, and this is somewhat subjective, but the purpose here is get a sense of how many slots are truly up for grabs.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--13 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total departure from what they have shown to this point.
--I have 12 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 13 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday.. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket Update 1/17

It is less than eight weeks until Selection Sunday, and the first bracket of the season is up. It is always wild and woolly at the bottom, and with 37 At-large teams and it being January and all, it is even wilder and woollier than it will be closer to Selection Sunday.

At the bottom, I took teams like Northwestern, Stanford, Xavier, Florida State, Marshall, BYU, Denver, NC State, New Mexico, and Minnesota over a host of others too long to list out. That said, Saint Joseph's, Texas, LSU, Ohio, and UCF were right there.

An full-color Lockbox is on deck for tomorrow, with the season's first "Bubble By the Numbers" post.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown

Big Ten (9): Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota

Big East (7): Syracuse, Georgetown, Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia, Marquette, Louisville

ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, NC State

SEC (5): Kentucky, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida

Mountain West (4): UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, New Mexico

Big 12 (4): Baylor, Kansas, Missouri, Kansas State

West Coast (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU

CUSA (3): Memphis, Southern Miss, Marshall

A-10 (3): Dayton, Temple, Xavier

Pac-12 (2): Cal, Stanford

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

Sun Belt (2): Middle Tennessee, Denver

Pre-Lockbox

This preliminary Lockbox houses teams that are 1) current conference leaders (tie-breaker to the RPI) or 2) very likely to be in the bracket in two months time based on performance to this point in the season. And, I'm talking about no-brainers here. No Bubble Boys listed on this one.

There are some teams included here that have major questions surrounding them (Wisconsin's B1G struggles, Florida's lack of beefy wins, etc), but in those two cases, the efficiency numbers point to ultimate success. Wisconsin is #3 overall in the Pomeroy ratings, sport the nations lowest Turnover%, the nation's best EffectiveFG% defense, and #2 overall Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Gators are rated #13 overall with the #1 offense. For now, those two get the benefit of the doubt...for now. Wiscy will have to turn around that conference record and Florida will have to win a lot of SEC games. And, I expect both will do that...for now.

There are a couple of other teams that could fall out of favor, but the purpose here is to get a feel for how many slots are actually out there at any given time. In this case, there are 23 At-Large teams that I would deem "stunners" if they don't show up in March. That means everyone else is playing for about 14 At-Large slots if they fail to win their automatic bid.

Again, this is a pre-Lockbox, so a full one comes later next week. The season's first bracket is coming on Monday.

Oh, Minnesota! Where Be Thy Hoopsters?

The Hoops Per Capita numbers show that Minnesota boasts just one DI hoops team. One team for over five million folks? What gives?

As mentioned a couple of days ago, other states with one team are in very low population states. It seems odd for a Big 6 school to have no in-state foil. The Lonely Gophers have no Creighton to their Nebraska, no Louisville to their Kentucky, no Nevada to their UNLV, no New Mexico State to their New Mexico. Further, they do not even have a "mid-major" to avoid and/or from which to demand two-home-games-for-a-neutral-site tilt in scheduling contracts: no Marshall to their West Virginia, no all-ten-other-Louisiana-schools to their LSU.

I do not have an answer here, but a question: is one hoops team enough for 5.3 million people? That ratio is twice as high as the next lowest state (Arizona) and 5.7 times higher than the national average.

Minnesotans: educate us.