Thursday, January 26, 2012

Lockbox Update 1/26

There has been major Bubble struggles this week, so this Lockbox has several teams "IN" that were not in Tuesday's full bracket.

IN: Oregon, New Mexico, Texas, Saint Louis

OUT: Marshall, UCF, Iowa State, Colorado State

Northwestern and Arkansas were close.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--18 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total departure from what they have shown to this point.
--I have six other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble (I'm looking at YOU, Alabama) or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 13 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday.. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.