Strike Four

Well, not one of our "upset" alerts were able to pull it off last night.

--Alabama 90, at Mercer 83. The Bear's University Center had 3,280 packed into its 3,200 seats. A golden opportunity was lost in Bama's Richard Hendrix's 28 and 14 monster night.
--Nevada 77, at UC-Irvine 68. Come on, Anteater fans! Your guys get a team that has been a Top 25 team and a perennial NCAA club for a few seasons, and only 1,007 of you show up! Your gym holds 5,000! Considering UC-I only lost by nine, it makes one wonder what a packed house would have done for them. Guess we'll never know.
--Vanderbilt 77, Toledo 70. Savage Hall holds 9,000, but only 4,061 showed up for this one in Toledo.
--Washington State 86, Boise State 74. Taco Bell Arena holds 12,380, and 6,718 came out for this one. The Broncos led by six at halftime, but WaSU ripped off a 33-12 run from which BSU would not recover.

Also, Xavier lost on the road at Miami-OH last night. Despite the misses by the big underdogs last night, it's still tough on the road.

Tonight's GOI
--Oklahoma State at North Texas. Come on, Mean Green fans. Your team is coming off its first ever NCAA trip and you have a Big State U coming into the Super Pit.
--Davidson at North Carolina. Davidson was good last year. They return all five starters and are should be VERY good this season.
--Texas Tech at Sam Houston. Another chance for a big attendance game for a non-power team. Sam figures to be one of the best teams in the Southland, so Knight's team will have to come to play.

"Upset" Alerts

We have a few candidates for our little experiment tracking abnormally large crowds at non-power schools on the slate tonight:

Washington State at Boise State
Alabama at Mercer
Vanderbilt at Toledo
Nevada at UC-Irvine

Of course, it is unknown how the attendance at these games will stack up to the average season attendance until later, but these are good "upset" candidates. Most intriguing is Alabama at Mercer, as the Bears are coming off a HUGE road pasting of Southern Cal. They will be riding high and the buzz surrounding them should help them pack University Center (3,200) tonight.

The "big" schools will be favored in all of these games. But, a win or two (I'm thinking Mercer is most likely) by the underdogs would not surprise TBB one bit.

Tonight's Other GOI
--Xavier at Miami-OH. The X always have NCAA hopes, but games like this one are necessary for the at-large profile.

Hawai'i's Lament

There is a triple-header on ESPN2 tonight, so all is right in the world. As football fans try to sort out the haystack of one-loss teams, we merely watch our much more game-dense, much more democratic season begin to pick up the pace. By the way, Hawai'i, if you go undefeated in hoops, I guarantee that you be the national champion.

Soon, it will be turkey, time off, and the yawning chasm between the end of the football regular season and the BCS title game. Literally hundreds of basketball games will occur between the end of football's regular season and its national championship contest. Whether the reasons are valid or not, this is preposterous.

Thankfully, there is no such great divide in college hoops. In fact, the season consists of four parts:
1. Non-conference. This time is made for Gardner-Webbing and Mercering of much ballyhooed "major" teams with resumes built on nothing more than reputation and anticipation.
2. Conference season. This is where a lot of winnowing occurs. Teams are sifted and the wheat and chaff are separated.
3. Conference tourney. Good teams from power conferences jockey for seeding, good teams from non-power conferences battle for the right to rest easy on Selection Sunday, Bubble Boys look to jump to the good side of the fence, and teams mired in mediocrity or teams that are downright stinkeroos look to make a last-gasp run to an automatic bid.
4. NCAA tourney. 64 games in three weeks and we get one champion decided on the court.

While much energy is focused on #4, let us take time to relish Turkeyball. November has already offered up surprises from various A-Sun teams and the upcoming tourneys have more in store, to be sure. Enjoy phase one to it's fullest this November/December.

And, know that if Hawai'i or anyone else does not lose a game this season, they WILL be crowned the champion.

Tonight's GOI
--New Mexico State at Duke. The Aggies are smarting after opening the season with a loss at Ohio, but the WAC faves have a chance to make amends in a big way tonight.

Full Swing

Games that count come hot and heavy this weekend, and there are a few to keep an eye on. Hence, I give you the season's first GOI (Games of Import).

Friday
--Butler at Ball State. What will the Bulldogs do for an encore this year?
--DePaul at Creighton. Big East travels to an MVC power.
--Vermont at George Mason. Two premier non-power schools in recent times.
--Drexel at Penn. See above.
Saturday
--Albany at Bucknell. Maybe the best game that talking heads will be not talking about this weekend.
--Missouri State at Toledo. Cannot call this a must win this early, but these kinds of games are where At-Large hopes are made and unmade.
Sunday
--UMass at Northern Iowa. See above.

Bluegrass Bombshell

Most know that I am a native Kentuckian. Born and raised here (Hudson, KY), and went to school and now work here (WKU). It's a hoops-mad commonwealth. UK is the big gun in this territory and historically they expect to waltz through their non-conference home slate with little resistance. Not so last night.

Gardner-Webb shellacked Kentucky 84-68 last night on UK's home court. Most of the state is currently suffering an apoplectic meltdown of Biblical proportions. Blame is being launched in every direction with no regard for human life (somehow, this is STILL Tubby Smith's fault in many UK fans' minds).

The nice part for TBB is that we have a heaping pile of evidence that this is November. TBB always takes an opportunity to remind folks of this each season. Things tend to get wild and crazy in November. Santa Clara beats national champion North Carolina teams (2005). Butler rips through the preseason NIT field to take a title (2006). Michigan State and Ohio State lose exhibition games while UK loses by SIXTEEN in Rupp to G-W (2007). Some of these things are early indicators of unexpectedly fantastic teams (Butler) and some are merely lessons learned by future March juggernauts (North Carolina, 2006). Is G-W that good? Is Kentucky that bad?

Hard to tell. It's NOVEMBER, and most wonderfully, games like these remind us that it is basketball season. Soak up this wild mess while it lasts. Games like G-W over UK are exactly why I posted the early season event guide a few posts down. Although the Bulldogs managed to smack UK in Rupp, these early season events often put non-BCS schools against BCS teams in lots of neutral court games. This usually makes for interesting hijinks and so-called "upsets" which are often not upsets at all. Often, they are merely games between fairly even teams on a neutral court.

So, we have a smattering of games tonight that will give way to a tidal wave of contests this weekend. And, rest assured, there will be some wild results ticking across the bottom of the screen. We will take a closer look at the weekend tomorrow.

No Preseason Bracket

Hmmm. Somehow my post about no preseason bracket disappeared. I will try again.

There are oodles of preseason picks and brackets out there. Some are willy-nilly, flip-a-coin-between-the-historically-best-conference-teams kind of picks, and some are majestic models of completeness (thanks, Blue Ribbon!). But, picking a preseason bracket just does not do it for me anymore. My focus here is on what teams actually do on the court. Then, I evaluate teams based on the selection criteria. I cannot possibly do that until we have a somewhat meaningful RPI and teams have played at least a dozen games. So, I will wait until early January.

That means more time for me to batter you with my often unpopular opinions. Bully for you.

Home Court: Part II

Earlier, I posted on the impact of big crowds on game performance and outcomes. I asked these three questions:

1. Does playing on the road on Saturday (presumably facing larger crowds than weeknight games) increase a team's chance of losing a road game?
2. Ken Pomeroy has demonstrated that home court advantage in a broad sense is often overblown. But, I'm not sure his data shows us that spiked attendance at "big games" does not matter. Of course, Duke and Kentucky and several other teams are almost always going to have a big crowd on hand. We already know it's tough to win there on any night. I am more interested in...
3. Do teams perform better statistically when the crowd is bigger? Do they "pull the upset" with a bigger crowd on hand? For example, does San Francisco "overperform" when Gonzaga comes to town and a big crowd is on hand?

I still want to track this, but proving statistical significance is probably beyond my capability. I have posed my question to Ken Pomeroy, and hopefully he will take me up on it and give us some answers.

What I have done is probe my USF vs Gonzaga question a bit. Last year, USF averaged 2104 attendance in their home games (not including GU). When the Zags came to town, 4500 folks ventured into War Memorial Gym. Season numbers:

Gonzaga: 113.9 OffEff, 95.8 DefEff, #55 Pythag Win%
USF: 103.0 OffEff, 102.6 DefEff, #153 Pythag Win%

GU managed to pull it out in OT. This is merely one game and is meaningless in proving anything. My point is that these are the kinds of games that I wonder about. I will try to flag similar type games as the season progresses.

That said, this kind of stuff is not really what I do here, and I do not want to get too far away from my focus here: evaluating teams by the selection criteria regardless of polls, conference, star power, TV contracts, or any other factor outside of the criteria. That is somewhat of a subjective process, but that is the system we have.

Therefore, while I do use efficiency rankings from time to time, I deal mostly with predicting what the committee will do. And, I thrive in the subjective. Hopefully, Mr. Pomeroy can help with the numbers.

Early Season Event Guide

This is not an exhaustive list, but here are some links to many of the top early season events for 2007. This comes in handy when planning visits to faraway (or close-to-home) Thanksgiving get-togethers. There is nothing quite like watching Butler or WKU or Siena try to take down a BCS team while suffering (reveling in?) the effects of a turkey coma enhanced with an insulin-spiking pumpkin pie overload. That combo makes one's pancreas curse like Bob Knight after a home loss to Baylor, but it is a November hoops rite of passage.

So, here's to profanity-spouting pancreases everywhere! Enjoy!

Nov 8, 9/15,16: 2k Sports Classic

Nov 12-14/21, 23: Preseason NIT.

Nov 12, 13/19, 20: CBE Classic.

Nov 16-19: Paradise Jam

Nov 15-16, 18: Puerto Rico Shootout

Nov 15-18: Top of the World Classic

Nov 19-21: Maui Invitational

Nov 20-24: Great Alaska Shootout

Nov 22, 23, 25: Anaheim Classic

Nov 22, 23, 25: Old Spice Classic

Nov 17, 18/23, 24: Las Vegas Invitational

Nov26-28: Big Ten/ACC Challenge

Sun Belt Preview

Things are a bit sunnier in the Sun Belt this season. Eleven of the fifteen members from the 2007 All-Sun Belt team return this season, including the cream of that group: New Orleans PG Bo McCalebb (New Orleans), WKU SF Courtney Lee, Arkansas State G Adrian Banks, and South Alabama G Demetric Bennett. The Belt should, SHOULD, have its strongest season in several years. The conference RPI for the last five years has been #15-17-13-18-20. The league has taken a tumble the last two seasons mainly due to adding a couple of RPI anchors to the league and the utter demise of used-to-be-perennially-powerful UL-Lafayette. The anchors look a little less weighty this year, ULL should be improved, and a couple of teams should be downright good. The Belt might creep into the top 15 again this season.

EAST
1. WKU Hilltoppers. Fourth verse, same as the first. The Tops are the favorite just about every year, but they have yet to fully deliver in the Darrin Horn era. There are six seniors on the roster including pre-season All-American Courtney Lee and Horn will can go as deep as he wants with the bench. SO PF Jeremy Evans has huge potential. There is real size and athleticism in the newcomers. Anything less than the NCAA will be a major disappointment this season.
Why they will be better than this: If one or two of the bigs can actually defend and rebound, this will be the best WKU team since the days of Chris Marcus.
Why they will be worse than this: Horn's team have yet to figure it out defensively. This team will fall short unless they shore up the matador defense. Also, one of the big men will have to step up for this team to max out.

2. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. MT has the goods to challenge WKU in the East. They return four starters and coach Kermit Davis inked a top 50 recruiting class including two standout JUCO frontcourt players and 6'5" G Josh Sain, who won Tennessee's state tourney MVP and was a finalist for its Mr. Basketball. PG Kevin Kanaskie is one of the better guards in the league and F Desmond Yates had a great FR season (10.9 pp, 3.4 rpg). Big Theryn Hudson returns up front as well. Calvin O'Neil, Nigel Johnson, and newcomer Demetrius Green will give MT a deep and talented backcourt. This should be Davis' best team since the Tommy Gunn era.
Why they will be better than this: If Green and JUCO C Uriah Hethington are as good as their press clippings.
Why they will be worse than this: If a number of these star recruits do not pan out--as has happened in the past with MT.

3. South Alabama Jaguars. Coach John Pelphrey left for Arkansas, so USA went back to the future in hiring former head coach Ronnie Arrow. Arrow has been busy building TAMU-Corpus Christi into a D-I program, nay, an NCAA Tourney-calibre D-I program, over the last few seasons. Pelphrey did not leave the cupboard bare. USA has a super backcourt tandem in guards Daon Merritt and Demetric Bennett, who combined for 29 ppg last season. Bennett shot 43.5% from downtown last season and Merritt averaged 5.3 assists. They are also high on former Mr. Kentucky Basketball Dominic Tilford who is eligible this season. Like a lot of Belt compadres, the guesswork is up front. The Jags have high hopes for former Cincinnati Bearcat Ronald Douglas in the post, and they do have F Brandon Davis returning.
Why they will be better than this: If Ronald Douglas is for real.
Why they will be worse than this: Several potential pratfalls including a new/old coach and reliance on newcomers.

4. Florida Atlantic Owls. They lost a super guard in DeAndre Rice, but return the Belt's best frontcourt player in Carlos Monroe (18.4 ppp, 9.4 rpg). The Owls have other options on the perimeter, too. They also add transfer Sammy Hernandez, who folks might remember from George Mason's Final Four team in 2006. FAU completed a $10 million renovation of their facilities in the offseason. The Owls made a solid debut in the Belt last season, and they seem to be headed in the right direction. This is my dark horse in the East.
Why they will be better than this: The Owls play ANY defense whatsoever (an abysmal #308 in AdjDefEff last season).
Why they will be worse than this: The loss of Rice hurts more than anticipated.

5. Florida International Panthers. FIU has not been good for awhile (see: Arroyo, Carlos: early career), but here is cause for optimism this year. The Panthers have added some serious size to their roster in the form of 7'0" Pepperdine transfer Russell Hicks and 6'11" JC transfer Badara Ndiaye. Neither put up huge numbers at their former schools, but FIU hopes they do enough to allow Alex Galindo (13.9 ppg) to do his thing more freely on the perimeter. FIU also adds Texas A&M transfer G Kenneth "Red" White who carries the reputation of a big-time scorer. Colorful coach Sergio Rouco is high on this team. FIU hosts Miami-FL, George Mason, and South Florida this year as part of a 17-game home schedule. FIU could make a little noise against those names in the non-conference.
Why they will be better than this: Rouco is right in his assessment of this team's talent.
Why they will be worse than this: If they are typical FIU: all sizzle, no steak.

6. Troy Trojans. The Trojans lost four major players from a 13-17 team, all of them double-digit scorers and the leaugue defensive POY.. In a league full of uncertain frontcourts, Troy has the youngest and least experienced. In standard Troy fashion, they have some gunners on the outside including seniors Odarian Bassett (15.1 ppg) and Justin Jonus (9 ppg). There are a truckload of other seemingly capable young guards and wings. This is coach Don Maestri's 25th year at Troy, and he has not won 424 games without being resourceful. Troy will likely wind up being better than they look on paper and will clip some wings of the league's peacocks when they are on from outside.
Why they will be better than this: The young size can play and some leadership emerges.
Why they will be worse than this: The losses hurt as much as it looks like they will.

WEST
1. UL-Monroe. They won the West last season and the 'Hawks return all five starters. ULM was small, but scrappy, and they add two promising newcomers with size this season. Four players that averaged double-figure points and another that chipped in 9.7 ppg return. They are also adding 6'7" F Mitchell Hampton who had offers on the table from Ole Miss and Auburn. WKU may be the overall favorite, but ULM certainly has the NCAA Tourney on its mind this season...and with good reason.
Why they will be better than this: If the perimeter players keep pace with last season and the frontcourt is indeed upgraded.
Why they will be worse than this: Seemed to overachieve last year (read: LUCKY. By Ken Pomeroy's calculations: 10th luckiest in the nation), and karma may come back on them.

2. New Orleans Privateers. One is hard-pressed to find any trio of seniors that have endured what Bo McCalebb, Ben Elias, and James Parlow have endured. McCalebb and Parlow not only went to UNO during Hurricane Katrina, but both are actually from the city of New Orleans. Also, McCalebb tore his ACL two seasons ago just for good measure. It is hard not to root for reigning POY McCalebb. He has been the best penetrator in the league for years, is as tough as nails, and will likely become the Belt's all-time leading scorer if he avoids injury this season. Three other starters return to flank McCalebb, and UNO has hired hometown guy Joe Pasternack as head coach. This should be UNO's best team in awhile.
Why they will be better than this: If some frontcourt scoring emerges.
Why they will be worse than this: If Privateer bad luck continues. Oh, and maybe that pesky issue of no returning big who averaged more than 2.8 ppg.

3. Arkansas State. If Isaac Wells had returned instead of declaring for the NBA draft (he's in Poland now), the Indians would be the pick in the West. They still have a shot as it stands. Adrian Banks is a POY candidate (21.1 ppg) and will be a headache for any team to contain. Combo G Ryan Wedel had a great FR campaign last year and give ASU another solid perimeter player. There are MAJOR questions up front, however. With Wells and starting center Theo Little gone, they will need JC transfer Yima Chia-Kur to live up to his considerable hype (recruited by Colorado, Providence, and Nebraska).
Why they will be better than this: Chia-Kur is for real and frontcourt steps up.
Why they will be worse than this: Frontcourt does not deliver and they are relegated to being a perimeter-only team.

4. North Texas Mean Green. Gone are Greenies Kendrick Davis, Calvin Watson, Rich Young, and Michael Sturns from NT's NCAA Tournament team that gave Memphis a serious run in the NCAA first round. PG Ben Bell does return and the Green adds USF transfer Collin Dennis (a starter for the Bulls), and two guys that filled it up in high school in Tristan Thompson and Josh White. In a rarity for Belt clubs, the strength is up front. Seniors Keith Wooden (9.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Quincy Williams (10.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg) will anchor what will likely be the best frontcourt in the league.
Why they will be better than this: Young perimeter players can step right in and present a scoring/shooting threat.
Why they will be worse than this: The losses are too great to overcome.

5. UALR Trojans. The Trojans are always physical--on that you can rely. Further, coach Steve Shields is not hiding his optimism. He does not have a lot of size up front, but he has lots of 6'6" and 6'7" guys. UALR welcomes two Ole Miss transfers in Brandon Patterson and big Mike Smith (6'7", 277 lbs). Add these two to the returning firepower of Lekheythan Malone and company, and there is potential for UALR to suprise some folks. This is my dark horse pick in the West.
Why they will be better than this: The infusion of the Ole Miss tandem and JC F Shane Edwards will shore up the frontcourt and open the perimeter up for Malone, et al.
Why they will be worse than this: Frontcourt does not deliver and it's a repeat of last season.

6. UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns. Like many teams in the Belt, the Cajuns have real reason for optimism this year. They return two excellent players in G David Dees and SF Elijah Millsap (Belt FR of the Year). Incoming 6'6" FR G Chris Gradnigo has Coach Robert Lee going gaga. He made official visits to Arkansas and Notre Dame before committing. They also have something else in common with a lot of Belt teams: lack of a proven inside presence. They have good perimeter talent, but will need one or more of the bigs to step up. No obvious answers are on the roster.
Why they will be better than this: If there is a hidden gem among the bigs.
Why they will be worse than this: If Gradnigo does not deliver and the bigs are as sparse as they seem.

7. Denver Pioneers. They were 4-24 last season and #335 of 336 in the RPI (thank you, Northern Colorado!). They lost three starters and will be in their first year implementing new head coach Joe Scott's Princeton-style offense. Expectations are, uh, low.
Why they will be better than this: The Princeton offense clicks right away.
Why they will be worse than this: If God is unmerciful.

A Season-Long Experiment

My rooting interest lies with the WKU Hilltoppers. I have spent the last two months lamenting the schedule. It is not a terrible schedule in terms of quality, mind you, it's the timing of the games that has me worried. See, much of the Sun Belt is also in the Bible Belt, and that means that Wednesday night games conflict with church for a healthy portion of our community (we have four Wednesday night tips this season). That means fewer big home crowds for the Tops. Further, the Toppers play a whopping nine games away from home on Saturday nights. My question is, do these things matter?

I am not a mathematician or a statistician, so I may not be able to prove causation, but we can certainly see if there is a correlation between crowd attendance and losing on the road. I am interested to examine several things:

1. Does playing on the road on Saturday (presumably facing larger crowds than weeknight games) increase a team's chance of losing a road game?
2. Ken Pomeroy has demonstrated that home court advantage in a broad sense is often overblown. But, I'm not sure his data shows us that spiked attendance at "big games" does not matter. Of course, Duke and Kentucky and several other teams are almost always going to have a big crowd on hand. We already know it's tough to win there on any night. I am more interested in...
3. Do teams perform better statistically when the crowd is bigger? Do they "pull the upset" with a bigger crowd on hand? For example, does San Francisco "overperform" when Gonzaga comes to town and a big crowd is on hand?

It should be interesting to track this over the course of the season. Of course, the numbers will not mean much, statistically speaking, until late in the season when the RPI and Sagarin can help provide some baselines.

Familiar Hum

An elderly man shuffles to the far wall in an dark, old, musty gymnasium. His left leg drags a bit as he walks. He clears his throat, and it echoes off the concrete walls. The air smells of damp leather and hardwood with a tinge of salt and mineral spirits. He raises a crackled, brown hand to the light switch panel. He flips the first switch. High-above bulbs flicker, and a low hum commences. The purplish twilight of the bulbs casts a pale, lavender, dim moonglow on the empty hardwood hall. The elderly man licks his lips, while he slowly and deliberately flips the second, third, and fourth switches, each one awakening a sound akin to a small hive of bees.

Over the next five minutes, the gymnasium lights gradually brighten like a glorious sunrise, eventually making the gym an empty, radiant sanctuary awaiting its priests, prophets, and congregants. The old man smiles a Chesire-cat smile in the warmth of the new luminosity. Soon, the first leather sphere will be cradled in knowing hands like a newborn babe. It will bounce on the waxy floor and shatter the vacuous silence, and then be launched toward a hoop that has held its waiting mouth open for a seemingly everlasting off-season.

The silence has been broken. It is time for basketball.

Coming soon (before November 3):
Early season event roundup
Sun Belt Preview
Preseason Bracket

Lights Out

Congratulations to the Florida Gators (again). They were the best team (again), with the best players (again), and they retained their coach (again).

The buzzing glow of the gym lights have dimmed and hang silently yet again until mid-October. A post-NBA draft bracket will appear sometime this summer, and other updates will occur as needed. But, for the most part, my work here is done for the 2006-07 season.

Read more of my stuff on my personal blog that focuses mostly on running.

Three Games to Go

At this point, it is time to enjoy our dessert. We have made it through another wonderful season of hoops, and while I probably care less about this weekend than most of my readers, it is still the culmination of another enjoyable season.

Enjoy the games. A tearful farewell to the season is on tap for next week.

NCAA Pace: Part II

OK, I made a slight miscue yesterday. The pace numbers were for the first round only.

What I have done today is averaged the pace for all NCAA tourney teams during their regular season games. That number is 66.6 (Mark of the Beast!!! Watch out, Ken Pomeroy!), which is just a smidgen under the 66.7 average for all teams in the regular season. So, in FIRST ROUND games, teams slowed down to average pace of 66.3, which is 0.3 possessions slower than this group of NCAA tourney teams averaged during the season. The games did slow down a bit.

In Round Two, the surviving 32 teams had a average pace of 66.0 in their games this season. So, more slower paced teams survived Round One. In Round Two games, the average pace was 63.0--a full three possessions slower than what these teams averaged in the regular season. Of course, with more "slow-minded" teams playing games against one another, this is not terribly surprising.

So, who is left? Sixteen teams that averaged 66.1 possessions this season, that's who. So, if the trend from Round Two holds up, games will be played at a pace of about 63.

Of course, these numbers are not perfect, but they do show that more teams surviving to this point play a slower brand of basketball. They also show that there is some truth to the "games slow down in the tournament" mantra. North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas, and Tennessee are in the minority in this group. They are the only four teams left that are even in the Top 100 in quickest pace of play.

Pace of Play: First Two Rounds

Time to put the old cliche that "games slow down in the NCAA tournament" to the test.

Regular season avg pace of play for all NCAA teams: 66.7
Avg pace of play through NCAA tourney first round: 66.3

So, the games actually slowed down a hair in the first round. HOWEVER...

1. Only five of the Sweet 16 played a pace faster than 66.7 during the season.
2. Not only were 11 of the remaining 16 teams slower than average, but 5 of the 16 were in the slowest 20% of all teams (UCLA, Pitt, SIU, Georgetown, Butler).

Is this small slowdown a result of the tourney setup or merely a result of the types of teams that are in the tourney? Do teams that play slow tend to be better teams or at least advance farther in the NCAA tournament? If we averaged the pace of play of tourney teams, would 66.3 actually be an INCREASE in pace of play for this cohort?

I am sure there are answers out there. Please share. Or maybe I'll find time to run some numbers tomorrow.

Ram-ifications

There are so many stories about VCU's win over Duke that I will not insult you with links. Otherwise, the bracket was pretty chalky yesterday.

Today's schedule might offer more drama. I am traveling today, so this may be it until late tonight or tomorrow morning.

So It Begins...

My bracket picks are ready to go. First round "upset" winners include Davidson, Winthrop, VCU, Arkansas, and Creighton. Final Four: Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, and Kansas. Florida over Georgetown to win it. I know...pretty boring.

Here is a schedule of today's games. Soak in the wholesome goodness. Sadly, it will prevent you from enjoying the NBA anymore, but it will be good while it lasts. I am only half-kidding.

More later, time permitting.
--------
1.50 pm: Teams cannot be judged solely on first round performance, but did Stanford look like a tournament team? Louisville simply demolished the Tree. In fact, Stanford moved liked trees...with DEEP roots.

Maryland spoiled by biggest lower seed pick by holding off Davidson who simply ran out of gas late in the game.

Adventures in Mis-Seeding

To start, let me say that I can certainly be wrong about any given team's seeding. So can any bracketologist. That said, the lists below show the differences in seeding for the 18 teams that the committee placed more than two seed lines away from what I had projected. Also included are the two teams that the committee put IN that I left out. What I am looking for here are patterns:

Higher
Vanderbilt +2. SEC commish on the committee.
Virginia +2. Virginia AD on the committee.
Purdue +2. Ohio State AD on the committee.
Indiana +3. Ohio State AD on the committee.
Gonzaga +3. No rep on the committee.
Long Beach +2. UC-Riverside AD on the committee.
Nevada +2. No rep on the committee.
Albany +2. No rep on the committee.
Butler +3. Horizon AD on the committee.
Arkansas (got IN). SEC commish on the committee.
Stanford (got IN). UCLA AD on the committee.

Lower
UNLV -2. Utah AD was on the committee (Mountain West).
BYU -2. See above.
Creighton -3. No Valley rep.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -2. No Southland rep.
Louisville -2. No Big East rep.
Marquette -2. No Big East rep.
Villanova -2. No Big East rep.
Syracuse (left OUT). No Big East rep.
Drexel (Left OUT). George Mason AD on the committee.

Only two of the Big Six conferences did not have representation: the Big XII and the Big East. The Big XII seemed pretty cut and dried: Kansas 1/2 seed, Texas A&M 2/3, Texas 3/4, Texas Tech as a bubble team that expected to be IN, and Kansas State and maybe Oklahoma State as Bubbly Boys that expected to be OUT. The Big East was trickier and, in my opinion, all of the teams above were underseeded or left out. Both Indiana and Purdue seem overseeded to me.

In fact, of the teams seeded lower by the committee than projected, only 3/9 had committee representation. Of the teams seeded higher by the committee than projected, 8/11 did have committee representation. As I said yesterday, this is not to say that the committee is "dirty." But, I do think it is inaccurate to say that "friends on the committee" does not matter. It only makes sense that if Syracuse and Arkansas are vying for one of the final slots, it is going to help to have the SEC commish on the committee. He or she will have special knowledge about the Hogs that no one in the room can provide regarding the Orange. There is no need for drastic change or alarm, but having representation on the committee DOES matter.

Tomorrow morning, I will post my bracket picks which are probably the least helpful or meaningful part of what I try to do here. But, it is part of the fun, is it not? And, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament is the best weekend in sports in this writer's humble opinion.

SCKySSiP, Lockbox, and Lousville

There are several items for discussion today.

SCKySSiP III
Our third edition of a mock selection selection once again matched most bracketologists projections. This shows that most bracket heads out there have a pretty good grasp on what the committee is trying to do. The actual 10-member committee does NOT sit in a room debating teams over brandy and cigars and handing out seeds as a result of their conversation. Far from it. The process begins with each member submitting two lists: 1) a list of all teams that should be IN, and 2) a list of all other teams for consideration. Teams appearing on at least 8/10 committee members' List #1 goes into the tournament. All other teams, along with all teams on List 2, go onto an At-Large Nomination board.

From this point, members nominate 8 teams on the ALN board. The top 4 vote-getters are held over for a future vote. Then, 8 more teams are nominated and those top 4 join the four that were held over. This 8-team list is then ranked 1-8 by all members. The top four vote-getters go into the tournament. The four teams that did not get in are held over for the next vote. Then, eight more teams are nominated. This process is repeated until all 34 at-large spots are filled. When that occurs, teams are seeded using the same process. Of course debate about X team does occur, but any given team's fate is decided by a 10-member vote.

And this is exactly what the SCKySSiP did. We replicated the selection process. Have another look at our results, only we had to rely much more on paper copies, a kitchen table, and Papa John's pizza in place of a fancy hotel, PC's for everyone, and whatever the real committee ate (some of Josh Heytvelt's mushrooms, I'd guess, based on some of the seeds).

Lockbox Accuracy
Can readers count on the TBB's Lockbox? The Lockbox had 25 teams LOCKED. They all got in. I also had Michigan State as a near lock and they also got in (26/26 so far). So, all teams guaranteed by the Lockbox made the field.

Syracuse was listed as "projected IN, but not a sure bet." Turns out, they were not a sure bet at all, I guess. This was the only real miss by the Lockbox. Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Illinois, Purdue, Xavier, Old Dominion, and Drexel were Bubble IN, and all but one made the cut (Drexel).

So, if the Lockbox says a team is a LOCK, they are a LOCK. Picking Bubble Boys is difficult, and it seems most experts missed on Syracuse and a lot missed on Drexel as well. It was a pretty good year for the Lockbox.

Louisville
A lot of talking heads (who are obviously not from Kentucky) are under the delusion that 6-seed Louisville will have a monster home court advantage when they play in Lexington (just 70 miles east of the Ville) this weekend. There are a couple of factors that make this unlikely. First, Ohio State is also there. Buckeye fans will suck up tickets in a hurry. Secondly, Louisville is the University of Kentucky's most hated rival. Most locals who have bought tickets to the tourney will be Wildcat fans. This is akin to Michigan playing a bowl game in Columbus, Ohio. Ask Duke if they enjoyed their trip to Lexington a few year's back (they lost to Indiana there in the tourney). Louisville will have it's share of fans to be sure, but there are going to be LOTS of UK fans rooting loud against Pitino's team. This should be an interesting scene.

Tomorrow: Adventures in Mis-Seeding.

Better Than Last Year

All I truly wanted from this committee was a better job than last year's debacle, and I think that this Gary Walters-led group accomplished that task. There were no wild surprises as to who got in, but leaving out Syracuse was a puzzler and I really thought Drexel had done enough even though their exclusion was not that surprising. Still, let me say up front that this committee did an adequate job this year--not as good as the 2005 group, but better than last season. Furthermore, I have been doing bracketology for 8 seasons and this was the toughest year that I can remember.

The committee nailed the one seeds, even though I did not. I thought that Wisconsin making the Big Ten final and the late start time against Ohio State would help them secure a one. The committee opted for Kansas and, even though Wisconsin's profile is better, Kansas won their tournament and the Badgers did not. No huge criticism from me regarding the one seeds.

There are always a few seeding issues. I have no idea how anyone can look at Butler's overall profile and finish to the season and give them a 5 seed. I though they were a 7, tops. Gonzaga, without Heytvelt, looks much closer to a 12/13 than a 10. Indiana somehow secured a 7 without a single meaningful win away from home. UCLA has to be comfy looking at the IU/Gonzaga winner as their 2nd round game. On the underrated side, UNLV, Creighton and BYU all look vastly underseeded to me. How anyone has Indiana three seed lines higher than Creighton is beyond me.

Compare a wide array of projections at the Bracket Project. TBB did better than some and not as well as others. This was not my best year, but not my worst either. I predicted 63/65 teams correctly (having Drexel and Syracuse IN with Arkansas and Stanford OUT), with 25 exactly seeded and 47 within one seed line. Fifty-nine of sixty-three correct teams were within two seed lines. Those numbers compare pretty favorably with most projections listed at the Bracket Project.

The SCKySSiP had similar results. A full breakdown of our work comes tomorrow. I can say that the SCKySSiP's work matched 63/65 as well (having Drexel and Syracuse IN with Stanford and Purdue OUT) with 29 seeded the same and 47 within one seed line. Fifty-eight were within two seed lines.

More on the SCKySSiP, the accuracy of the Lockbox, and how the selection committee makeup affects seeding tomorrow.

Also, here is a link to nice, clean actual bracket. Enjoy!