Lockbox Update

Lockbox has been updated. I added these teams as LOCKS:

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette

Lockbox updates will happen much more frequently from here on in as teams sort themselves out down the stretch.

The Bubble by the Numbers

--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.

--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.

--27 teams are LOCKS or listed in black. The black teams could miss, but at this stage it would be extremely surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.

--I have 7 other teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but still have a little work to do. Of these 34 black and blue teams, 11 are conference leaders. That means 23 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.

--Hence, the Bubble stands at 11 slots right now. That's the same last week. This will shrink over the coming days, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

Last Night's GOI

--at Boston College 72, Florida State 67. Eagles are in nice shape now. They clinched .500 in the ACC and have two winnable games left.

--at LSU 81, Florida 75. Gators would be wise to win 2/3 here at the end.

--Texas A&M 57, at Nebraska 55. Aggies committed absolute theft at Nebraska. They trailed by 18 on two different occasions in the 2nd half, but a furious late rally capped by a 3-pt buzzer beater killed the Huskers and keeps the Aggies on the good side of the Bubble.

--at Ohio State 73, Penn State 59. Buckeyes are in good position. Penn State remains right smack on the Bubble.

--at Providence 81, Pitt 73. Teams high in popularity polls falter on command. Friars have new life.

--BYU 69, at San Diego State 59. 2nd half demolition by the Cougars.

--Syracuse 87, at St. John's 58. Orange calm the Storm--both the Johnnies and their own.

Tonight's GOI

--Virginia Tech at Clemson. Hokies need to make some hay late.

--Northwestern at Indiana. Cats probably need to win out or make a deep tourney run at this stage.

--UConn at Marquette. 2/3 of the 2-loss Big East teams.

--Duke at Maryland. Terps made a huge jump by beating UNC and they owe Duke for an absolute embarrassment in Cameron earlier in the season.

--Kansas State at Missouri. K-State is very much alive, but they need some beefy wins.

--Dayton at Rhode Island. URI has played well as of late. Flyers will need a good game to get a win in this roadie.

--Kentucky at South Carolina. HUGE game with massive Bubble and SEC East title implications.

--UNLV at Utah. UNLV needs it a lot more.

And Down the Stretch They Come 2

It is less than 3 weeks until Selection Sunday and there are less than 2 weeks remaining in the regular season. It's time to look at what races are going to the wire and which ones have a Secretariat-like leader (or even over).

In the Winner's Circle
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Radford
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State (NCAT can still tie, but Morgan State won the only regular season meeting)
WCC: Gonzaga

Secretariats
CUSA: Memphis. +3 with two to play.
Ivy: Cornell is up two with four to play.
Patriot: American is +2 with two left.
SEC: LSU is +3 with four left although the East is still a mess.
SoCon: Davidson. Up two with three left.
WAC: Utah State is +3 with three to play.

Front Runners
ACC: UNC is a game in front, but three teams sit one game back.
Am East: Binghamton and Vermont are tied with one to play. The Bearcats swept the Catamounts and will get the one seed if it ends in a tie.
A-Sun: Jacksonville leads by one with two to play, but their last game is at #2 Belmont.
Big 12: Kansas now leads by one game, but OK and Mizzou are just one back.
Big Ten: Michigan State is one up but has games left with Purdue and Illinois.
Big West: Long Beach and CS-Northridge are two games clear of the field in the loss column.
Colonial: VCU leads by one with two to play.
Horizon: Butler leads by one with two home games left.
MAC: Buffalo is one up one on a host of teams.
Mountain West: Utah has surged ahead to take a two game lead with four left.
Northeast: Robert Morris. Two clear with two to play, but their final game is with #2 Mt. St. Mary's. A road loss at St. Francis will set up a season-ending showdown.
Summit: North Dakota State is up one with two to play, but one of those is at #2 ORU.
Sun Belt: WKU and UALR are tied with the Toppers holding the tie-breaker with two games left. Troy is one back.
SWAC: Alabama State leads Jackson State by one game with four left.

Big, Muddy Field
A10: Three to play, three way tie at the top (X, Dayton, Temple) with URI one back.
Big East: UConn, Louisville, Marquette and Pitt are tied at the top.
Missouri Valley: UNI and Creighton are tied with Illinois State one back.
Ohio Valley: UT-Martin and Morehead State lead by one with Murray State and Austin Peay just one back.
Pac-10. Washington and Arizona State are tied with UCLA and Cal one back.
Southland: Five teams are tied or within a game of the lead.

Last Night's GOI
--Louisville 76, at Georgetown 58. Hoyas are going to need a miracle finish now.
--Kansas 87, at Oklahoma 78. Helps KU more than it hurts OK since Blake Griffin sat out.
Tonight's GOI
--Florida State at Boston College. Eagles are Bubble-IN right now and this would put them in nice shape. FSU is fighting for a top 4 seed.
--Florida at LSU. Gators need it more.
--Texas A&M at Nebraska. Aggies must have it.
--Penn State at Ohio State. Buckeyes need to hold serve to keep stress level low. Penn State is right on the fence.
--Pitt at Providence. It's time for the Friars to get busy if they are going dancing.
--BYU at San Diego State. Both need it, but the Aztecs need it more.
--Syracuse at St. John's. Orange need to stem the tide lest they slide onto the Bubble.

Bracket Update 2/23

New bracket is up.

Today, I took teams like UNLV, Maryland, Kentucky, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Maryland over a group that included South Carolina, Southern Cal, San Diego State, Michigan, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, St. Mary's and few others.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College
Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Pac-10 (5): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona
SEC (4): LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, UNLV
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton

Tonight's GOI

--Louisville at Georgetown. Hoyas are in total desperation mode.
--Kansas at Oklahoma. If KU is going to land a 2-seed, they probably need this one due to their lack of top 25 RPI wins.

Weekend Forecast 2/20-22

Tonight's GOI

--at Michigan 74, Minnesota 62. OK, maybe the Gophers are not quite Bubble, but they are getting close. Michigan backs up a tough win at Northwestern with this goodie.
--WKU 78, at UALR 69. Toppers go into a tough road venue and take control of the Sun Belt race having swept UALR and holding a one game lead on Troy.
--Washington at UCLA. UCLA can pull back into a tie for first with defense of their home court.

WEEKEND FORECAST

It's BracketBusters weekend. Click here for the entire schedule.

Saturday

--Louisville at Cincinnati. Bearcats are on the Bubble but a home win here would surely put them on the good side for the time being.
--Marquette at Georgetown. Hoyas have this game and Louisville at home in the next few days and those two will likely tell us a lot about their fate.
--Kansas State at Iowa State. KSU has to avoid any sort of loss, especially one like this.
--Tennessee at Kentucky. Who thought these two would be antsy about their status at this late hour?
--North Carolina at Maryland. Terps need to land a haymaker.
--Boston College at Miami-FL. There are few games with more Bubble ramifications than this one.
--San Diego State at New Mexico. Aztecs are right there but cannot afford any slips.
--Illinois at Ohio State. These two are scratching for a protected seed.
--Baylor at Oklahoma State. Maybe not an elimination game, but it will feel like it.
--Notre Dame at Providence. Ditto.
--Washington at USC. Trojans badly need to hold serve at home after dropping 3 straight roadies.
--Oklahoma at Texas. Horns are perilously close to Bubbledom.
--Texas A&M at Texas Tech. Aggies must have it.
--Memphis at UTEP. Tigers have this one and a game at UAB next.
--BYU at UNLV. Rebels need it more and it's at home so they had better get it.
--Florida State at Virginia Tech. Hokies have lost 4/6 so they need to defend the home court here.
--Radford at VMI. Radford can clinch the Big South title with a win.
Sunday

--Arizona at Arizona State. Both are hot and very much alive for the Pac 10 title.
--Wake Forest at Duke. Both have looked vulnerable lately and the loser is essentially done in the ACC title race.
--Michigan at Iowa. Wolverines need to TCB on the road to consolidate a couple of recent solid wins.
--Wisconsin at Michigan State. A win would move the Badgers off the Bubble.
--Northwestern at Minnesota. Gophers need to defend the home court to stay off the Bubble.
--Villanova at Syracuse. Both competing for a protected seed.

GOI 2/19

More later if time permits.

Tonight's GOI
--LSU 72, at Arkansas 69. Tigers dug a huge hole to start the game, then roared back to win a game they could not afford to lose.
--at Florida State 80, Miami-FL 67. Canes are looking like a strong NIT team. 4-8 in conference is going to be hard to overcome at this stage. Not dead, but need a big finish.
--Penn State 38, at Illinois 33. Lions became the first team to win scoring under 40 points in about 11 years. That roughly 107,000 college basketball games. Really (~325 teams x ~30 games each x 11 years).
--at Louisville 94, Providence 76. Friars shot 75% in the first half and only led by two.
--at Mississippi 81, Tennessee 65. Hard to imagine the Vols being left out, but they are trying.
--at Mississippi State 75, South Carolina 70. Gamecocks make an even bigger mess of the SEC picture.
--Oklahoma State 92, at Texas Tech 82. Cowboys win a must win.
--at Virginia 75, Virginia Tech 61. It's generally not a good policy to lose by double digits to the worst team in your league if you are on the Bubble.
--at West Virginia 79, Notre Dame 68. Irish are in the same boat as Miami-FL.

Tonight's GOI
--Minnesota at Michigan. A loss here pushes the Gophers onto the Bubble but would probably make Michigan Bubble-IN.
--WKU at UALR. 2/3 of the Sun Belt's best with huge league championship and conference tourney seeding ramifications.
--Washington at UCLA. UCLA can pull back into a tie for first with defense of their home court.

First LOCKS

Lockbox is up.

Four teams are LOCKs today. These teams could lose out and still get in:

North Carolina, Oklahoma, UConn, Pitt

Duh. The point here is that TBB doesn't take LOCKS lightly.

Other notes:
--Texas and Minnesota were downgraded from "near lock" or "projected in."
--South Carolina was downgraded to "bubble-IN" though it was mostly circumstantial and not because they lost.
--Xavier was upgraded to "near lock."

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--25 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.
--I have 8 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 33 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 23 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 11 slots right now. That's down one from last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

Last Night's GOI
--at BYU 73, New Mexico 62. Cougars strengthen their profile a bit. Lobos are a real long shot now.
--at Clemson 93, Maryland 64. A terrifying second half run crunched the Turtles. MD has UNC and Duke at home in their next two games.
--at Purdue 72, Michigan State 54. A most impressive win by the Boilers keeps them withing a game of Sparty.
--at Vanderbilt 77, Kentucky 64. UK looks to be a classic Bubble team.

Tonight's GOI
--LSU at Arkansas. Tigers need to keep winning due to their appalling non-conference slate.
--Miami-FL at Florida State. Canes have played pretty well, but have lost a lot of close ones. They cannot afford to fall to 4-8 in ACC play.
--Penn State at Illinois. Lions need to land a couple of big fish coming home to keep hope alive.
--Providence at Louisville. Friars are very much alive, but they have to collect some brass to be a viable AL team.
--Tennessee at Mississippi. Vols last at Auburn last time out on the road.
--South Carolina at Mississippi State. Gamecocks have little margin for error.
--Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. Cowboys cannot afford to lose a game like this.
--Virginia Tech at Virginia. Dangerous in-state rivalry game for Bubblish Hokies.
--Notre Dame at West Virginia. Irish need it badly.

A Bracket-ful Mind

The WKU College Heights Herald did a feature piece on my bracket obsession, complete with staged photo-op and the cool title, "A Bracket-ful Mind."

Also, congratulations to Siena! They clinched the 1-seed in the MAAC Tourney with a triumph at Iona last night. Niagara is two back with two to play and the Saints swept the Purple Eagles this season. So, there could still be a tie in the standings, but Siena holds the tie-breaker. I think this is the first team to clinch a top tourney seed.

Which reminds me. The One Stop Shop 2009 is very close. The OSS has all 30 conference tourney brackets in a handy tabbed file that I will update very frequently during conference tourney season.

Last Night's GOI
--at Texas A&M 81, Texas 66. Aggies keep their hopes alive while the Horns are now dangerously close to Bubbledom.
--Pitt 76, at UConn 68. Road wins over teams considered to be 1-seed caliber are generally a good thing.

Tonight's GOI
--New Mexico at BYU. On opposite sides of the Bubble (Lobos: bad, Cougars: good), so this one is vital to both.
--Maryland at Clemson. The Terps are far from dead. A big win here would put them right back in the mix.
--Michigan State at Purdue. Boilers will either pull within a game or fall three back and pretty much out of the title race.
--Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Cats got on the good side with a couple of wins last week, but Memorial can be a tough venue. Vandy is down this year, though.

Bracket Update 2/16

Bracket is up.

There were some tough decisions to be made at the bottom today and a lot of teams in the mix. I opted for these teams

Kentucky, Florida, UNLV, Southern Cal, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Miami-FL

over this group:

San Diego State, Michigan, Kansas State, Georgetown, St. Mary's, Northwestern, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Temple, Providence, Maryland

It's not easy at the bottom right now. It will sort itself out to some degree in the last couple of weeks.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Miami-FL
Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Pac-10 (6): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona, Southern Cal
SEC (5): LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky
Big XII (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, UNLV
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton

Tonight's GOI
--Pitt at UConn. Titanic game with titanic implications.
--Texas at Texas A&M. Big 12 Bubble Boys.
--East Tenn State at Lipscomb. ETSU is scrapping for a league title (just one back), but Lipscomb has put together three very impressive games in a row.

Weekend Forecast 2/13-15

Last Night's GOI
--at Arizona 83, Southern Cal 76. Don't look now, but Zona has won six straight after a 1-4 startin the Pac-10.
--at Arizona State 74, UCLA 67. There are now six Pac-10 teams within two games of the lead
--Illinois 60, at Northwestern 59. An absolutely crushing defeat as the Illini finished on a 17-2 run to end the game and steal what looked like a sure-fire, big time win for the Cats.
--at Notre Dame 90, Louisville 57. The "Must Be An Error" score of the month if you did not watch the game. ND has a long road back, but this is a start.
--Temple 61, at Saint Joseph's 59. Now there is a three-way tie for first in the loss column in the A10 with the Owls just one back.
--Gonzaga 72, at St. Mary's 70. Gaels are going to have to get Patty Mills back and re-prove themselves or win the WCC Tourney.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Villanova at West Virginia. 'Eers try to slow down Nova's NBA-like scoring and WVU certainly does not want to fall to 5-7 in league play.
Saturday
--UCLA at Arizona. Bruins try to avoid a fruitless AZ swing while Cats go for their 7th straight.
--Kentucky at Arkansas. Cats cannot afford a loss here and need to back up that win over Florida.
--Texas A&M at Baylor. HUGE for both of these Big 12 Bubble Boys.
--Utah State at Boise State. Aggies have three tough roadies left: here, a BracketBusters game at St. Mary's, and at Nevada.
--Binghamton at Boston U. 2/3 of the leaders of the AmEast.
--UW-Green Bay at Cleveland State. Good tussle between two of the better Horizon teams.
--Northeastern at George Mason. Patriots must have it lest they fall three back.
--Kansas at Kansas State. Wildcats have won 6 straight while KU looks to bounce back after a loss at Mizzou.
--Virginia Tech at Maryland. Both need, but the Terps are especially desperate.
--Minnesota at Penn State. Lions are going to need a BIG finish.
--Cincinnati at Pitt. Bearcats are trending the right direction and this would give them a signature win.
--UConn at Seton Hall. The Hall have six in a row and get the Huskies at home in their game without Dyson. Keep an eye on this one.
--Georgetown at Syracuse. Hoyas have to finish well to make it IN.
--WKU at Troy. Toppers can get two clear in the Sun Belt East, or Troy can draw into a tie.
--Florida State at Wake Forest. Two teams trending different directions, but the Deacs are at home in this one.
--Ohio State at Wisconsin. Badgers need to protect the home court to preserve their bid. Did you know tOSU has 5 losses...all to top 30 RPI teams, with four of those to top 15 RPI teams?
Sunday
--Southern Cal at Arizona State. Devils are riding high after beating UCLA while USC has dropped two straight.
--Duke at Boston College. Dukies have lost 3/5 and BC has lost two straight. Someone will feel better after this one.
--North Carolina at Miami-FL. The Canes' have 3 OT losses in their last 5 games. That is just wrong on so many levels.
--Michigan at Northwestern. It will be interesting to see what NW'n can do after collapsing at home vs Illinois last night.

State of the Sun Belt

East
WKU leads by a game due their recent gutty four-wins-in-8-days stretch. They are off tonight and figure to be heading into second place Troy on Saturday with a lot on the line if the Trojans can handle third-place Middle Tennessee tonight at home. If that holds, Troy will have won nine straight with a chance to gain a tie atop the East with a win over WKU. However, if WKU could take down the Trojans in a tough roadie, the Tops would be two clear in the East.

Elsewhere in the East, keep an eye on FIU. They got 7'0" C Russell Hicks back and 6'10 FR C Freddy Asprilla was an absolute beast before a herniated disk sidelined him. If they get healthy, FIU is a threat in the Belt tourney. Middle Tennessee is predictable underperforming this season and FAU has had an awful year in part due to F Carlos Monroe's absence. He was TBB's preseason POY pick. South Alabama simply cannot win close games (4 of their losses are by a total of 9 points), otherwise they would be in the mix. They will be a dangerous mid-seed, too.

West
UALR is running away with it. They are 4 clear with 6 to play, so they are cruise control. All six of the other West teams are within two games of one another, so it will be a dogfight down the stretch for seeding. North Texas is currently in second by one game over three teams. Denver is 10-2 at home, 0-11 on the road. Enough said. After a nice start, Arkansas State is 2-6 in their last 8 Belt games as the offense just cannot score enough points. UL-Lafayette is also 2-6 in their last 8, despite a couple of extremely talented players in Chris Gradnigo and Travis Bureau. UNO is a gritty bunch that always competes, but usually loses. UL-Monroe is showing signs of life, going 3-2 in their last five after a rough start.

UALR is almost guaranteed one of the three byes. WKU and Troy are in good shape, but a strong finish by MTSU could get them one as well. MTSU needs to win tonight at Troy to harbor real hopes of gaining a bye, however, and that is a tall order these days.

Last Night's GOI
--Oklahoma 78, at Baylor 63. Bears are in trouble. Sooners looking more like a 1-seed every day.
--at UConn 63, Syracuse 49. Huskies keep gaining steam, too.
--at Dayton 71, Xavier 58. Big-time bounce-back from the loss at Charlotte. Quietly, Saint Joseph's take sole possession of first in the A10.
--North Carolina 101, at Duke 87. Death, taxes, and UNC winning a big game in Cameron.
--at Memphis 63, Tulsa 37. CUSA race is essentially over.
--LSU 97, at Mississippi State 94 (2OT). LSU takes firm control in the SEC West.
--at NC State 82, Wake Forest 76. Deacs' recent road troubles continue.
--at Purdue 61, Penn State 47. Lions hopes are dwindling.
--at Utah 67, San Diego State 55. Utes earn a season split and take sole possession of first in the MtWest.
--at Wisconsin 69, Iowa 52. Badgers get one they had to have.

Tonight's GOI
--Southern Cal at Arizona. Pac-10 Bubble magic.
--UCLA at Arizona State. Devils will fall three back of Bruins with a loss. Win, and they are still in the title chase.
--Illinois at Northwestern. Cats need to cash in at home to stay in the convo.
--Louisville at Notre Dame. Irish need to start the resurrection right now.
--Temple at Saint Joseph's. Two pretty good teams being overshadowed by Dayton/Xavier.
--Gonzaga at St. Mary's. Gaels are fighting for their lives without Patty Mills.

Lockbox 2/11

Lockbox is up.



The Bubble by the Numbers

--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--23 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.
--I have 9 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 32 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 22 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 12 slots right now. That's down one from last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

Last Night's GOI

--Clemson 87, at Boston College 77. Tigers put up a 52-spot in the 2nd frame and BC remains Bubblicious.
--at Kentucky 68, Florida 65. Jodie Meeks made a ridiculous three with 4 seconds left to give UK a win that bordered on "must."
--Michigan State 54, at Michigan 42. Wolverines were held to 15 first half points on their home court.
--at Texas 99, Oklahoma State 74. Horns break out of their mini-funk in a big way.
--at Villanova 102, Marquette 84. Nova is clicking at the right time and this put a serious dent in Marquette's 2-seed hopes.

Tonight's GOI
--Oklahoma at Baylor. It's desperation time for the Bears and this is a BIG opportunity to cash in.
--Syracuse at UConn. Orange are slipping away from a top 5 seed. This would help in that regard.
--Xavier at Dayton. It would be a good idea for the Flyers to hold serve here given their lack of beefy wins and their recent falter at Charlotte.
--North Carolina at Duke. I'll check to see if this one is on TV.
--Tulsa at Memphis. Tigers can get three clear of everyone with a win here.
--LSU at Mississippi State. Two best SEC West teams.
--Wake Forest at NC State. Deacs need to TCB after recent road losses at Miami-FL and GA Tech.
--Penn State at Purdue. Lions hopes hang by a thread.
--San Diego State at Utah. Two of five MWC teams making a case on the Bubble.
--Iowa at Wisconsin. Badgers have to win the ones like this one.

And Down the Stretch They Come

It is less than 5 weeks until Selection Sunday and there are less than 4 weeks remaining in the regular season. It's time to look at what races are going to the wire and which ones have a Secretariat-like leader.

Secretariats

SoCon: Davidson. Eat. Their. Dust. They are 3 games clear with 6 to play.

Big Sky: Weber State. They are 2 clear with 6 to play and finish with 4/6 at home including their toughest challenger (Portland St). Not a lock, but it will VERY hard to catch them.
CUSA: Memphis. Two games clear and apparently much better than the rest of the league.
MEAC: Morgan State. They are two clear of everyone and drilled 2nd-place Bethune-Cookman by 34 at B-C. They are also the only MEAC team with an overall winning record.
Northeast: Robert Morris. Three clear with six to play.
Summit: North Dakota State is two clear with just five to play. Only ORU is withing striking distance.
WAC: Utah State is four clear with five to play. It's been domination to this point.
WCC: Gonzaga is two clear of Portland who they swept with six games left.

Front Runners

ACC: Duke and UNC. These two are a game in front, but four teams sit one game back.

Am East: Should be a nice finish as Boston U (1 game lead), Vermont, and Binghamton have traded punches all season.

A10: Xavier. Definitely the fave, tied with St. Joe's at the moment. Dayton is one back and Temple and Duquesne lurk two back.

A-Sun: East Tenn St, Belmont, and Jacksonville have swapped the top spot a number of times already. It will likely be one of these three.

Big 12: Oklahoma. Kansas is just one back, Mizzou is two back, but it's the Sooners' to lose.

Big South: VMI and Radford. Tied, and they have been the two best in this league all season. They are +3 with 6 to play.
Big Ten: Michigan State is two games clear in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten.
Big West: Long Beach and CS-Northridge are two games clear of the field.
Colonial: Northeastern is a game up on VCU and 2 up on Mason. It's likely to be one of those three.
Horizon: Butler is a game up on UW-Green Bay who is only one game back. It's unlikely than anyone other than UWGB can catch the Dogs.
Ivy: Princeton is a game up on Cornell, but there are lots o' games left in the Ivy.

MAAC: Siena is two up on Niagara but still must visit the Purple Eagles.
MAC: Buffalo is one up on Miami-OH. Those two have been the top MAC teams all season.
Valley: UNI is 2 clear, but just lost at home to 2nd place Creighton.
Pac-10. UCLA has some challengers, but they have nosed ahead and are the clear favorite.
Patriot: American and Holy Cross are tied and two clear of the field with 6 to play.
Southland: SFA, TAMU-CC, and Sam Houston lead the way and seem to be a cut above the rest.
Sun Belt: WKU, UALR (tied with 2 losses each with WKU holding the tie-breaker), and Troy (3 losses), have the inside track for the tournament byes with Middle Tennessee lurking.
SWAC: Alabama State leads Jackson State by one game with seven left. Any other contender will have to come from way off the pace.

Big, Muddy Field

Big East: UConn, Louisville, Marquette are tied with Pitt one back and Nova two back. Not everyone plays the same schedule and this league is tough, so it's still up for grabs.
Mountain West: The best race going right now. Utah, BYU and UNLV have been in the mix all along, but San Diego State and New Mexico are pushing hard now. It's still wide open.
Ohio Valley: No dominant team and six teams within two games of the lead.
SEC: It's a four-team race in the East and two in the West and any of the six could wind up being the top team in this league.

Last Night's GOI

--at Missouri 62, Kansas 60. Tigers knock KU from a first place tie and get a nice resume booster.

--at Pitt 70, West Virginia 59. Pitt stays a game back in Big East, while 'Eers fall to 5-6 in league.
Tonight's GOI
--Clemson at Boston College. Eagles would have to feel good about their position if they hold serve at home here. Tigers need bounce back from that home loss to FSU.
--Florida at Kentucky. UK needs it badly. Gators are no lock, but the Cats cannot afford home losses at this stage.
--Michigan State at Michigan. In-state rivalry alert!
--Oklahoma State at Texas. Bubbly Cowboys take on a Texas need in need of a win themselves.
--Marquette at Villanova. This will tell us a little more about Marquette as a legit 2-seed possibility.

Bracket Update 2/9

Bracket page is up.

There were a slew of teams vying for the final 7 or 8 slots. I took these teams

Dayton, San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Michigan, Arizona, Cincinnati

over these teams:

Kentucky, Miami-FL, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Providence, St. Mary's, Georgetown, UAB, Northwestern, Penn State

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona State, Southern Cal, Arizona
Big XII (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri
ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College
SEC (4): Florida, LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina
Big Ten (7): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Mountain West (4): Utah, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV

Tonight's GOI
--Kansas at Missouri. KU is peaking and Missouri is still alive for a nice seed if they can win games like this one.
--West Virginia at Pitt. WVU tries to avoid dipping below .500 in league.

Weekend Forecast 2/06

It was a wild week in real work life for me, so I had to skip again yesterday. That's unfortunate, too, because on Wed night, Duke and Wake both went down by 27, which was not exactly expected and I did not get to pontificate on said drubbings. Such is life.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Florida State at Clemson. Tigers try to consolidate their destruction of Duke.
--Michigan at UConn. One of the few remaining meaningful non-conference tilts.
--Miami-FL at Duke. Two teams with VERY different feelings about their last outing.
--Cincinnati at Georgetown. Two Big East Bubble Boys.
--Memphis at Gonzaga. Even bigger non-conference game than Michigan/UConn.
--Northwestern at Iowa. This is the kind of game the Cats must win to find their way IN.
--Oklahoma State at Kansas. Cowboys looked destined for Bubble. A win here would loosen the collar a bit.
--Texas at Nebraska. Horns need to stop the bleeding after two straight losses.
--Minnesota at Ohio State. Gophers killed Illinois then got killed by Michigan State. tOSU is getting it in gear. One of the mos interesting games of the weekend.
--Notre Dame at UCLA. Irish are on life support now. They have lost 6 straight and have UCLA and then Louisville.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Two teams fighting for a protected seed.
--Butler at Wright State. The TBB is a big fan of this year's Raiders, who are 14-3 (losses at Wake, at Butler, at Cleveland State) since an 0-6 start. They have the #11 rated Def Eff in all the land. Tough game for Butler.
Sunday
--Purdue at Illinois. Illinois needs it more, as they will likely fall three back of Sparty with a loss.
--Wisconsin at Penn State. Two Big Televen Bubble Boys.
--Boston College at Wake Forest. Both need for different reasons.

Lockbox 2/4

Lockbox has been updated.

Several teams fell back onto the Bubble this week including Kentucky, California, Baylor, and Georgetown.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--22 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown (example: Cal losing 4/5 including a home loss to Oregon State has taken them from "very safe" to "Bubble" over the last couple of weeks).
--I have 9 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 31 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 21 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 13 slots right now. That's up from 10 slots last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

Last Night's GOI
--at Florida 97, South Carolina 93. Gators take the SEC East lead and Gamecocks have sent notice that they are a real factor there and in the NCAA convo.
--Mississippi State 66, Kentucky 57. Two of the three longest NCAA streaks are in jeopardy this season (Arizona is #1 at 24 and Kentucky is #3 with 17 in row). Back-to-back home losses and three in a row overall have the Cats reeling.
--at Ohio State 80, Purdue 72 (OT). Boilers fall a game behind Sparty while the Bucks get a big-time resume boost.

Tonight's GOI
--Notre Dame at Cincinnati. Must win for both. Should be intense.
--Duke at Clemson. Clash of the Titans game of the night.
--Wake Forest at Miami-FL. Wake needs this to stay in the ACC and 1-seed race, while Miami-FL is fighting for their NCAA lives.
--Minnesota at Michigan State. A Gopher win could create a 5-way tie in the loss column at the top of the Big Televen.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma. It's a long shot, but this would really shore up the Aggies' profile.
--Villanova at Providence. Friars have been a nice surprise, but they need to beat some of the better Big East teams to find their way in. This would help a lot.
--West Virginia at Syracuse. Both are angling for a top 5 seed.
--Missouri at Texas. See above.
--Southern Cal at UCLA. Don't look now, but the Trojans are just one game out of first and could pull into a tie with UCLA with a win (they would still trail Washington by a game).
--

Bracketbusters Set

Sometimes real life takes over. That's what has happened the last couple of days. Therefore, I did not get to post my final Buster predictions. However, there has been little mystery as to the big games this year. Here is what ESPN has conjured up for TV games (full list of match ups here):

Feb. 20
VCU at Nevada
Illinois State at Niagara
Feb. 21
George Mason at Creighton
Butler at Davidson
Miami (Ohio) at Evansville
Hofstra at Fairfield
Green Bay at Long Beach State
Liberty at Old Dominion
Boise State at Portland State
Utah State at Saint Mary's
Northern Iowa at Siena
Buffalo at Vermont
Northeastern at Wright State

More on this as we get closer to Buster Day.

Bracket Update 2/2

Bracket is up.

There are some unfamiliar names knocking on the door of the bracket. In the end, I took more familiar names like Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Southern Cal, Texas A&M and BYU over Providence, Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan, Miami-FL, and St. Mary's. But, there is new blood making a surge toward the bracket.

There were a number of casualties this week. Wisconsin, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, Miami-FL, and Michigan all fell out of the bracket. Georgetown was perilously close, too.

Tonight's GOI
--Kansas at Baylor. Both of these teams have designs on a top 5 seed. KU is in better shape at this stage.
--UConn at Louisville. Big East title and 1-seed implications. BIG ones.
--Pitt at Robert Morris. RMU is 9-1 at home and are winners of nine straight. They have been DESTROYING their conference competition of late. Could be interesting.
--Butler at UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix are also 9-1 at home and have been playing pretty well, too. Another chance for a high seed team to lose tonight.
--

Weekend Forecast 1/30-2/1

Last Night's GOI
--at Gonzaga 69, St. Mary's 62. Gaels still have no top 50 RPI wins and only two top 100 wins.
--at Minnesota 59, Illinois 36. Vicious Gopher defense ended a 20-game skid to Illini in a BIG way.
--at Southern Cal 70, Stanford 69. Trojans take a step toward the bracket while Cardinal fall to 3-5 in Pac-10.
--at UCLA 81, California 66. Bruins pull into a tie with Washington (who was clipped at Arizona) for first in the Pac-10.
--at Utah State 72, Nevada 61. Aggies keep clicking along at 19-1.
--Clemson 86, at Virginia Tech 82. This leaves Duke and Wake as the only 1-loss ACC teams.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Saturday
--Washington State at Arizona. Two teams coming off big wins last night. Someone will put together a couple of nice ones.
--Washington at Arizona State. Two teams coming off losses last night. One will be the proud owner of a 2-game skid.
--Virginia Tech at Boston College. BC needs it more.
--Wright State at Cleveland State. Raiders have won 13 of 15, but the Vikings have been pretty tough at home (8-2).
--Providence at UConn. It's a long shot, but a Friar win would lift them to "contender" status.
--VCU at Hofstra. The Pride are riding a 4-game streak including a win over CAA leader Northeastern--a team that just dealt VCU a loss.
--South Carolina at Kentucky. We'll see what the Gamecocks are made of in the next 5 games (4 on the road). UK is stinging from a loss at Ole Miss on Tuesday.
--West Virginia at Louisville. Both playing well as of late...Cards are really coming on.
--Georgetown at Marquette. Hoyas badly need a win, but this is a tall order.
--Austin Peay at Morehead State. Probably the two best teams in the OVC.
--Baylor at Missouri. Two likely NCAA teams jostling for Big XII position.
--Wisconsin at Northwestern. Both need it, but the Badgers are an NCAA mainstay staring a 6-game losing streak in the face if they can't scratch one out here.
--Notre Dame at Pitt. Could be 5 losses in a row for ND if they don't pull the upset here.
--Michigan at Purdue. Wolverines have lost 4/5 and need a win.
--California at Southern California. Bears are cooling, Trojans are warming up.
--Florida at Tennessee. Neither of these teams have comfy profiles.
--Oklahoma State at Texas A&M. Couple of Big XII Bubble Boys.
Sunday
--Saint Joseph's at Dayton. Hawks have won 7 straight while Flyers are 19-2 overall.
--Penn State at Michigan State. Long shot, but this would likely vault the Lions into this week's bracket.

BracketBusters 5

Buster update is up.

Marquee match ups would likely be something resembling:

Butler at St. Mary's
Utah State at Davidson
Miami-OH at Siena
Northeastern at Creighton


Last Night's GOI
--at Cincinnati 65, Georgetown 57. Hoyas are heading to Bubbletown on the express train.
--North Carolina 80, at Florida State 77. No win, but the 'Noles look like a team that isn't going away.
--American 68, at Navy 67. Eagles get a big conference road pelt.
--Kansas 68, at Nebraska 62. Jayhawks had to work, but the maturation process is coming along.
--at Northern Iowa 59, Illinois State 55. Panthers are now TWO games clear of the Valley field.
--at Ohio State 72, Michigan 54. Wolverines also drifting a bit.
--at Providence 100, Syracuse 94. Friars landed their big fish. Now it's time to consolidate and maintain. This team is VERY much alive.
--at Rhode Island 67, Temple 59. Probably not going to happen for the Owls.
--LSU 79, at Tennessee 73. Tigers are making their case, but that OOC schedule is going to be a millstone.
--at Villanova 67, Pitt 57. Nova also collects their signature win.
--at Wake Forest 70, Duke 68. Wake defends the home court and strengthens its claim for a 1-seed.

Tonight's GOI
--St. Mary's at Gonzaga. Gaels have rolled up a ton of wins, but no huge ones. This would count.
--Illinois at Minnesota. Tough one for the Illini, but they need it stay within one game of Sparty.
--Stanford at Southern Cal. These two look like classic Bubble boys at this stage.
--California at UCLA. Both in the mix for Pac-10 supremacy and currently one game back of Washington.
--Nevada at Utah State. Pack are coming around, but USU is 18-1 and undefeated at home for a reason.
--Clemson at Virginia Tech. Note that VT is ahead of Clemson in the ACC standings right now.

Lockbox 1/28

Lockbox has been updated.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--19 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did.
--I have 15 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 34 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 24 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 10 slots right now. That's down from 12 last week. This will shrink over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

One change from Monday's bracket: South Carolina IN and Wisconsin OUT.

BracketBusters update coming tomorrow.

Last Night's GOI

--Texas 78, at Baylor 72. Horns stay one game back of the Sooners and win their 23rd straight over the Bears.
--Boston College 76, at Maryland 67. Terrapins are in bad shape.
--at Utah 94, BYU 88 (OT). Utes knock Cougars from the MWC leaders and damage their Bubble status as well.
--Northeastern 68, at VCU 63. Huskies take sole possession of first place in the CAA with a gigantic road triumph.
--at Wisconsin 64, Purdue 63. Badgers would be OUT as of today.

Tonight's GOI
--Georgetown at Cincinnati. Hoyas really need to take care of this one lest they fall onto the Bubble.
--North Carolina at Florida State. Big for both for different reasons.
--American at Navy. Two of the top 3 in the Patriot.
--Kansas at Nebraska. These are the kinds of games that will determine if KU is going to compete for a top 5 seed or not.
--Illinois State at Northern Iowa. Probably the two best Valley clubs.
--Michigan at Ohio State. Wolverines need it more and the Buckeyes have already won in Ann Arbor.
--Syracuse at Providence. Friars have a HUGE opportunity to make a serious move toward the bracket here.
--Temple at Rhode Island. Just keeping an eye on the Owls.
--LSU at Tennessee. Tigers need it more. Their baby-soft schedule is not going to get them IN unless they win the West and/or beat teams like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida.
--Pitt at Villanova. Nova is not a mortal lock by any stretch, but this would go a long way to erasing that "no big wins" status. Pitt is playing to win the Big East and secure a one seed so every game is big in that regard.
--Duke at Wake Forest. This will test the Dukies' mettle and they can prove that they are deserving of the title "best team in the country" at this stage.

Watch List

Northwestern
The Cats are just 2-5 in the Big Televen, but they have 5/6 conference games at home in the coming weeks are they are toting some big pelts already (Minnesota, Michigan State, Florida State). If they can defend the home court, they are going to be in the at-large conversation.

Temple
Just keep them on the back burner. That monster SOS is going to pay off if they keep winning in the A10.

Saint Joseph's
The at-large profile is not there, but they have won 6 straight and are blemish-free in the A10.

Wright State
TBB has been all over the Raiders for weeks, but just an update: 12-2 after starting 0-6 and playing some of the best D in the nation. Those two losses were at Wake and at Butler. Who COULD win those games??!?! Mark your calendar for Feb 7. That's when Butler comes to town.

Last Night's GOI
--Oklahoma 89, at Oklahoma State 81. Another solid win for the Sooners. They are looking more and more like a 1-seed.
--Marquette 71, at Notre Dame 64. Irish may need to dig out some road wins. They have three in a road coming up.

Tonight's GOI
--Texas at Baylor. Two teams with designs on challenging Oklahoma. If they want to do that, they need to win this game.
--Boston College at Maryland. Feel the desperation?
--BYU at Utah. Two of the 39 contenders for the Mt West crown. Seriously, SIX teams are tied atop the league with two losses!
--Purdue at Wisconsin. Badgers find themselves approaching desperation mode due to a 4-game losing streak.

Bracket Update 1/26

New bracket is up.

I took Missouri, Oklahoma State, UNLV, and Wisconsin over teams like South Carolina, Penn State, Southern Cal, Northwestern, Stanford, LSU, Temple, Miami-OH, Boston College, and Texas A&M among a few others.

Tonight's GOI
--Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. Can the Red River run red with blood or is it redundant to say so?
--Marquette at Notre Dame. Irish need to bounce back quickly after having their home streak snapped by UConn. Eagles are STILL blemish-free in conference play.

Weekend Forecast 1/23-25

Last Night's GOI
--at Butler 69, UW-Green Bay 59. Dogs continue to handle all comers.
--West Virginia 75, at Georgetown 58. They Hoyas might get beat up a bit in league play...and be one of the most fearsome 8/9 seeds to ever bedevil the days of man.
--Purdue 70, at Minnesota 62. The kind of road game league champs win.
--St. Mary's 65, at San Diego 42. It appears it is once a gain a two-horse race in the WCC.
--at Washington 78, Southern Cal 73. Huskies are certainly tracking in the right direction.
--Providence 98, at Seton Hall 93 (OT). Friars stay on the fringe of Bubbledom.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--San Diego State at BYU. Couple of Mt West Bubble Boys.
--Wisconsin at Illinois. Badgers try to avoid slipping below .500 in league play. That's a tall order here.
--Kansas at Iowa State. Young Jayhawks must learn to fly out of their comfy nest.
--Xavier at LSU. Tigers have been hammering schools from Mississippi of late, but lack ANY wins of real significance. This would change that.
--Buffalo at Miami-OH. Probably the two best teams in the MAC.
--Northwestern at Michigan. Both need it, but a loss would be Michigan's fourth straight. Can't really afford to lose this one at home.
--Oklahoma State at Nebraska. A test for Bubble Cowboys.
--UConn at Notre Dame. Irish have the nation's longest home win streak on the line.
--Baylor at Oklahoma. Bears fall two games back of Sooners with a loss.
--Iowa at Penn State. Two fringe teams looking to get into the bracket.
--Niagara at Siena. If any MAAC team is going to challenge the Saints, it's the Purple Eagles.
--Mississippi at South Carolina. Gamecocks need to pile up a bunch of SEC wins to have a shot.
--Memphis at Tennessee. One of the bigger non-conference tilts left this season.
--Texas A&M at Texas. At this stage, Aggies are going to need to beat some Big 12 heavies.
--Utah at UNLV. Two more Mt West Bubble Boys.
--UCLA at Washington. For the outright Pac-10 lead. Also, Huskies are 12-1 in their last 13.
Sunday
--Virgnia Tech at Miami-FL. Hokies have new life after winning at Wake. They are 8-1 in last nine, too.
--Michigan State at Ohio State. Sparty looks to maintain its 1-game lead while tOSU tries to avoid falling below .500 in league play.
--Louisville at Syracuse. Orange would be three back of leaders with a loss.
--Pittsburgh at West Virginia. Panthers certainly do not want to fall two back of leaders in the loss column.

Buster 4

Buster update is up. Marquee match ups would look something like:

Butler at Davidson
Utah State at St. Mary's
Miami-OH at Siena
George Mason at Creighton

Tonight's GOI
--UW-Green Bay at Butler. GB has won 9 of 10.
--West Virginia at Georgetown. Some of these Big East have to lose some games.
--Purdue at Minnesota. Big Televen race is wide open so every game seems to have championship implications.
--St. Mary's at San Diego. Two of three WCC that are still unbeaten in conference play.
--Southern Cal at Washington. Trojans need it more.
--Providence at Seton Hall. Friars have little margin for error. They are going to have to win this type of road game to stay in the hunt.

Lockbox 1/21

The Lockbox has been updated.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--18 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did.
--I have 14 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 32 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 22 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 12 slots right now. That's down from 16 last week. This will shrink over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

BracketBusters update coming tomorrow or Friday.

Last Night's GOI
--Creighton 79, at Evansville 57. The Valley is a carnival and these two are especially tough to figure.
--at Illinois 67, Ohio State 49. Illini are going to be a factor in the Big 10 title race.
--at Penn State 73, Michigan 58. Lions strengthen their NCAA hand.
--Tennessee 76, at Vanderbilt 63. Vols brought back the defense.

Tonight's GOI
--Northwestern at Michigan State. Cats looking for that signature win.
--George Mason at Northeastern. CAA leader at a title challenger. Good one.
--Villanova at UConn. Tough row to hoe for Cats, but also an opportunity to land a big fish.
--Florida at South Carolina. If the Gamecocks are going to stay in the picture, they are going to have to win against the better SEC teams.
--Florida State at Miami-FL. ACC and big-time Bubble implications.
--Mississippi State at LSU. Both are fringe Bubble Boys looking to make hay.
--Bradley at Northern Iowa. Maybe the two best Valley teams. Who knows...
--Wisconsin at Iowa. Badgers are not nearly as secure as in former seasons. They cannot afford to lose games like this one.
--Clemson at North Carolina. Clash of the Titans Game of the Night.
--Missouri and Oklahoma State. The Big 12 version of FSU/Miami-FL.
--Arizona State at Arizona. In-state rivalry alert! And Zona is in desperate need of a good win.
--UNLV at BYU. Massive MtWest tilt.

GOI 1/20

Lockbox update/analysis coming tomorrow.

Last Night's GOI
--at East Tenn State 87, Belmont 57. A Reagan-over-Mondale-level blowout in this A-Sun co-leader (Belmont no more) match up.
--at Kansas 73, Texas A&M 53. Aggies remain classically Bubbly.
--at Pitt 78, Syracuse 60. Keeping with the theme of blowouts...
--at Providence 72, Cincinnati 63. And we closed with another comfy win by the home team keeping with the theme of the night.

Tonight's GOI
--Creighton at Evansville. Sputtering Valley teams look to right the ship.
--Ohio State at Illinois. Two teams with designs on the Big Televen title and protected NCAA seeds.
--Michigan at Penn State. Lions can get into the convo with some big conference wins. Good chance at home here.
--Tennessee at Vanderbilt. Memorial Magic has tripped up many a team in Nashville.

Bracket Update 1/19

Bracket is up.

At the bottom, I took BYU, Stanford, Miami-FL, UNLV, and Missouri over teams that included Maryland, Boston College, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.

There will be a substantial Lockbox update this week either tomorrow or Wednesday that looks at the multi-bid conference situation.

Tonight's GOI
--Belmont at East Tenn State. A-Sun powers square off in a BIG game (2/3 A-Sun's 1-loss teams).
--Texas A&M at Kansas. Aggies need some weight on their resume.
--Syracuse at Pitt. Clash of Titans Game of the Night.
--Cincinnati at Providence. Fringe BEast Bubble Boys must feel like they are already in must-win mode.

Buster 3/Weekend Forecast 1/16-18

Buster Update is up. The marquee match ups would look something like:

Butler at Davidson
Utah State at Siena
Illinois State at St. Mary's
George Mason at Creighton

Last Night's GOI
--at Nevada 77, Boise State 63. Pack still has life in them.
--Purdue 63, at Northwestern 61. A KILLER for the Cats. They led by 13 at half, but the Boilers stormed back.
--Xavier 67, at Rhode Island 65. The Rams may truly regret this one on SelSun.
--at USC 61, Arizona State 49. Trojans get a nice win. Maybe this will spark a march toward the bracket.
--UConn 67, at St. John's 55. The Johnnies were game for a good while, but...
--at UCLA 83, Arizona 60. Zona has been to 24 straight NCAA Tourneys. That's the longest streak in the nation. And it's in real jeopardy this season.
--at UW-Green Bay 80, Cleveland State 65. Game was tied at half!
--North Carolina 83, at Virginia 61. Heels get their first ACC win.
--at WKU 63, Middle Tennessee 61. Toppers do their job by holding serve at home and now are tied with MT atop the league standings and hold tie-breaker...at the moment.
--Minnesota 78, at Wisconsin 74 (OT). Gophers rally from 9 down with 3.24 left to clip the Badgers in the Kohl Center. Time to start thinking of the Gophers as serious Big 10 challengers.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Saturday
--Maryland at Florida State. Terps could use some quality wins. FSU is in pretty good shape, but they have to hold their home court.
--Notre Dame at Syracuse. Irish need to show they can get things done on the road against top teams if they want a protected seed.
--Northern Iowa at Drake. One of these two will not be tied for first after this tussle.
--Georgetown at Duke. A peach of a inter-conference game this late in the season.
--Oklahoma State at Baylor. Both looking Bubbly.
--Oklahoma at Texas A&M. Aggies are 11-0 at home.
--Arkansas at Florida. Couple of SEC Bubble Boys.
--Wake Forest at Clemson. CLASH OF THE TITANS game of the weekend.
--Arizona State at UCLA. Devils try to bounce back in a tough roadie after falling to USC.
--Boston College at Virginia Tech. Eagles bracket line is in jeopardy.
--Rider at Niagara. Probably the two best MAAC teams not named Siena.
--Miami-FL at North Carolina. 'Canes have won 6 straight.
--Marquette at Providence. With Cincy fading, the Friars are the only legit NCAA Bubble team apart from the Top 9 in the BEast.
--Arizona at USC. Both need it BADLY.
--Cal at Stanford. Cardinal are 1-3 in conference, so losing home games in not advisable.
--South Carolina at Tennessee. With the Vols looking quite vulnerable, the Gamecocks have a shot to lift themselves into Bubble contention with a win here.
--Middle Tennessee at UALR. MT is tied for Belt lead in the East while the Trojans lead the West.
--Wyoming at UNLV. Nobody is talking about the 10-4 Cowboys, but their 4 losses are to teams #54 and better in the RPI and they have beaten Northern Iowa and San Diego State. They are a sleeper in the MWC.
--Boise State at Utah State. Another big MWC game.
--Cleveland State at UW-Milwaukee. Couple of tough Horizon customers.
Sunday
--Minnesota at Northwestern. Gophers need to consolidate that win over Wiscy while Cats fight for their lives.

BracketBusters Tomorrow

I am in a conference at my real job all day today, so the Buster update will have to wait until tomorrow.

Lotta BIG action tonight.

Tonight's GOI
--Boise State at Nevada. New-guard WAC vs. old-guard WAC.
--Purdue at Northwestern. This game will help show if Purdue is the real Big Televen fave or not.
--Xavier at Rhode Island. Rams almost must have it if they harbor any at-large hopes.
--Arizona State at USC. Trojans' prospects are bleak. They need a big one.
--UConn at St. John's. The Johnnies just took care of Notre Dame at home, so beware, Huskies.
--Arizona at UCLA. Not as big as it usually is as the Cats are playing for their Bubbly lives already.
--Cleveland State at UW-Green Bay. Two of several good Horizon teams.
--North Carolina at Virginia. Heels seeking their first ACC win in three tries.
--Middle Tennessee at WKU. The two best teams in the Sun Belt. Toppers almost have to have it if they expect to challenge MTSU in the East. A loss sends them two games back of the Blue Pegasi with a trip to Murfreesboro still to go. WKU needs it much more.
--Minnesota at Wisconsin. Nice Big 10 tilt and a win by the Gophers at Wiscy would send a loud message.

Lockbox 1/14

There is more security in the Lockbox this week, but the Bubble is still too unwieldy to talk about with any definition.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--15 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but it would be very surprising if the did even at this early stage.
--I have 10 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if the win the games they "should" win (nebulous at this point), they should be fine.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at a massive 16 slots right now. This will shrink over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five.

A lot of the teams in green will upgrade their status this week with a couple more wins. But, rest assured, some of the blue teams will slip as they lose a head-scratcher.

BracketBusters update coming tomorrow.

Last Night's GOI
--at BYU 73, TCU 61. Cougars move to 13-2 and stay tied with SDSU atop the MtWest.
--at Kansas 87, Kansas State 71. Jayhawks started this game on an 18-0 run only to see their lead closed to 3 at one point.
--Florida State 78, at NC State 65. It seems to be happening for FSU this year if the hold their home court reasonably well in the ACC.
--Northern Iowa 58, at Evansville 47. Beware the Panthers, winners of five straight including three of the toughest Valley road venues. They are in the driver's seat.
--Kentucky 90, at Tennessee 72. We have a new favorite to win the SEC East. And it's Jodie Meeks. He went for 54 (thanks for the correction, dear reader...I think he had 46 when I went to sleep on the couch) in this one.
--Memphis 55, at Tulsa 54. Buzzer-beating heartbreaker for the 'Canes.

Tonight's GOI
--Wake Forest at Boston College. Let's see if Wake avoids the UNC letdown.
--Syracuse at Georgetown. This one has the same level of importance as those Reggie Williams v. Stevie Thompson teams had.
--Michigan at Illinois. Both are outsiders to win the league.
--Drake at Illinois State. Could the Redbirds lose their 3rd straight? Drake needs it to stay tied atop the Valley.
--South Carolina at LSU. One or both of these teams feel like pretenders to me.
--Maryland at Miami-FL. Big Bubble impact.
--Arkansas at Mississippi. Hogs need this one to right the ship.
--Michigan State at Penn State. Careful, Sparty. Lions are looking for a signature win.
--Baylor at Texas A&M. TAMU needs it more.

GOI 1/13

I must be short today. Updated Lockbox complete with breakdown coming tomorrow.

Last Night's GOI
--at Belmont 79, Lipscomb 74. Rivalry held up as superior Belmont had to scratch one out
--at Louisville 87, Notre Dame 73. Good one...until UL won 14-0 in overtime.
--at Oklahoma 78, Texas 63. If there was any doubt about who the Big XII fave was, there is not any now.

Tonight's GOI
--TCU at BYU. People are learning about BYU, but the Horned Frogs are 9-2 after a 1-3 start.
--Kansas State at Kansas. In-state rivalry alert!
--Florida State at NC State. Same ol' Noles, or will they really take care of the games they need to this year?
--Northern Iowa at Evansville. I cannot imagine many Valley teams will sweep their games at Creighton and SIU, but the Panthers have done just that and sit tied atop the Valley standings with Bradley and (don't look now!) Drake at 4-1. E-ville has cooled since their 2008 Drake-ish start, but are a tough out at home.
--Kentucky at Tennessee. The SEC has no titanic match ups. This is probably as big as it gets in January for the SEC this year.
--Memphis at Tulsa. Golden 'Canes are 6-1 in their last seven.

Bracket Day!

The first bracket is up! This is mostly for kicks at this point, but the significant news is that UNC is NOT a 1-seed. Frankly, I never thought they would be less than a 1 in ANY bracket this season.

The Big East has nine teams in and I think that's likely this season when it's said and done. No extensive breakdown this week as that is more helpful when the RPI and conference records actually mean something.

At the bottom, I took Miami-FL, Kentucky, Washington, Boston College and Oklahoma State over Maryland, Utah, San Diego State, Stanford, Texas A&M, Arizona and South Carolina. I could have just as easily drawn those last 5 or so slots out of a hat at this point, though.

It's officially bracket season. Enjoy!

Tonight's GOI
--Lipscomb at Belmont. In-city rivarly alert (Nashville)!
--Notre Dame at Louisville. Cards come home after a nice road win at Villanova.
--Texas at Oklahoma. Always a fun rivalry and this one has big-time Big XII title race implications.

Weekend Forecast 1/9-11

Last Night' GOI

--at Butler 64, Wright State 48. The Bulldogs are tough. Raiders will need lots of help to catch Butler now.
--Minnesota 52, at Iowa 49. Good win for Gophers. These are the kind that keep you on the Bubble's good side.
--at Washington 84, Stanford 83. Huskies hold serve at home as the look to end their NCAA drought.

WEEKEND FORECAST

Tonight

--Rider at Siena. Big one in the MAAC.
--UW-Green Bay at UW-Milwaukee. In-state rivalry alert!
Saturday

--Miami-OH at Boston College. Feels like a meaningful Bubble game.
--UConn at Cincinnati. Bearcats need to score some big ones to stay in the picture. This is their first of five MAJOR home conference games.
--Duke at Florida State. Devils always seem to struggle in Tallahassee.
--Oklahoma at Kansas State. Interesting because the Pomeroy rankings really like K-State, but they are largely untested.
--Vanderbilt at Kentucky. Badly needed by both--big Bubble implications.
--West Virginia at Marquette. I guess most Big East games qualify as important for the Bubble, don't they?
--Kansas at Michigan State. One of the final big-time non-conference match ups.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma State. Both are largely unproven with nice records.
--Rhode Island at Saint Joseph's. Rams need this type of game to stay in the picture this season.
--Utah at San Diego State. If Schizophrenic Utes win here, I'll stop picking on them.
--Louisville at Villanova. Cats look to avoid slipping to 1-2 in conference.
--Cal at Washington. The Pac-10 race is not a UCLA coronation this year, and these two could factor into who wins this league. Cal has won 8 straight and the Huskies have ripped off 9 in a row.
Sunday
--Temple at LaSalle. Philly goodness. LaSalle is warming up, going 7-2 in their last nine, while Temple is 7-6 against one of the tougher schedules in the country.
--Penn State at Minnesota. Believe or not, if Penn State wins here, they will likely be in the bracket on Monday.
--Wisconsin at Purdue. Boilers badly need this to avoid an 0-3 start in Big Ten play.
--St. Mary's at San Francisco. Probably the Gaels most dangerous conference game outside of Gonzaga.
--UCLA at USC. UCLA looks to complete a 3-game road sweep of Pac-10 foes.
--North Carolina at Wake Forest. Wake is one of only three undefeated teams left (Pitt, Clemson), but they have not faced an opponent that lives in the same neighborhood at UNC (attested by their RPI of 32 despite no losses). Their win at BYU convinced me they are good. Let's see how they handle a 1-seed.

BracketBusters 2 (01/08)

It was a fairly topsy-turvy night last evening. BC backed up their gigantic win over clear title favorite North Carolina in Chapel Hill with a home loss to Harvard. By 12. Michigan nearly lost at Indiana and needed OT to escape. And, Morgan State of the MEAC went into Maryland and cashed in a win. Check the Lockbox from yesterday and you will see Morgan State as the projected winner of the MEAC.

BracketBusters update is ready. Currently, the marquee games would look something like:

Butler at St. Mary's
Miami-OH at Evansville
Illinois State at Davidson
Bradley at Siena

Last Night's GOI
--Providence 87, at Cincinnati 79. Friars are now 7-1 in their last eight and 3-0 in Big East play. Big test at Georgetown on Saturday.
--at Duke 79, Davidson 67. No win, but Davidson showed their mettle in cutting a 25-point lead to 8 in the 2nd half.
--Gonzaga 89, at Tennessee 79 (OT). Zags right the ship and the SEC still has not shown it has a legit top 15 team.

Tonight's GOI
--Wright State at Butler. I've been touting the Raiders for a couple of weeks now. Let's see if that super defense is ready for the big time.
--Minnesota at Iowa. Nice match up of mid-pack Big 10 teams.
--Stanford at Washington. Both need some quality wins as neither has beaten a sure-fire NCAA team.

Lockbox 1/06

Bracket season is officially here as the Lockbox makes its first appearance. Take this with a 6-lb grain of salt, but it is an attempt to see where teams stand at this point. A few interesting notes:

1. The Big East might get shaken up a bit, but at this point, there is a clear line of demarcation after nine teams. Pitt, UConn, Georgetown, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Villanova and Marquette seem to be in good position. One can only assume Louisville will get it together with three likely NBA players on the roster. All nine of those can be found in the top 34 of the efficiency numbers (before last night's games). From there, it's a long tumble to Bubble hopefuls Cincinnati and Providence. The bottom five are likely done before they even really get started in Big East play. Cincy and Providence might upend enough contenders to sneak in, but the line seems pretty clear even at this early stage.

2. The SEC is terrible by power conference standards. Tennessee has been good, not great, and there is no team that can be considere a lock beyond them. Arkansas is the only team in the West that can feel good about their current profile.

3. Outside of the power conferences, Illinois State, Xavier, Gonzaga, and BYU look the cream of the crop at this stage. But, Illinois State lost at Bradley last night and have no marquee wins and none forthcoming in the Valley. It's going to be tough for them to find their way in if they lose more than three games.

4. There is still bias in this Lockbox. Some teams simply have not been tested enough to know how good they are, so some guesswork is still there. There will be less and less of this as we go along in the next few weeks.

Last Night's GOI
--at Arkansas 67, Texas 61. Hogs have staked claim to the best non-conference profile in the SEC West.
--at Bradley 56, Illinois State 52. Coupled with Creighton's loss to Northern Iowa, this could be an early sign that the Valley is a one-bid league this year. Braves have now won 6 of 7.
--at Dayton 45, Miami-OH 40. Flyers survive a meat-grinder from the Redhawks.
--at Georgia Tech 67, Georgia 62. Jackets rally after a slow start to hold off Dawgs.
--at Kansas 91, Siena 84. The Saints did not get that monster non-conference win, but they have established themselves as a very dangerous team.
--at Michigan State 67, Ohio State 58. This puts OSU in a 2-game hole behind MSU.
--UConn 61, at West Virginia 55. Huge road win for the Huskies in the first of three straight conference roadies.

Tonight's GOI
--Providence at Cincinnati. Neither can really afford to lose to the other. Not when there are nine other teams in the league better than these two.
--Davidson at Duke. ESPN ticker teaser: "Duke takes on leading scorer Curry." Well, if Davidson's other players are allowed to suit up, it should be interesting.
--Gonzaga at Tennessee. The Zags beat UT in the Old Spice Classic over Thanksgiving, but this game in Knoxville will be a tough test for struggling GU.

Lockbox Tomorrow

Short on time today, but TBB will unveil the season's first Lockbox tomorrow.

Last Night's GOI
--Texas Southern 81, at Alcorn State 64. Winless no more! At least for Texas Southern...
--at Notre Dame 73,Georgetown 67. Irish defend the home court against a fellow Big East contender.

Tonight's GOI
--Texas at Arkansas. Hogs have already beaten Oklahoma at home and the SEC West is soft. A win here puts them in pretty good shape.
--Illinois State at Bradley. Braves have won five of six, while Cardinals have ravaged Evansville and Creighton lately and are still undefeated.
--Miami-OH at Dayton. Redhawks continue their death march of a schedule...and they are holding their own.
--Georgia at Georgia Tech. In-state rivalry alert! Both looking for a spark, too.
--Siena at Kansas. The Saints scheduled like bloodthirsty hunters and here is another shot at a big pelt.
--Ohio State at Michigan State. Buckeyes certainly do not want to fall two games behind Sparty this early.
--UConn at West Virginia. Another titanic Big East match up.

Watch List 3

A few more teams to keep an eye on that are mostly flying under the national radar right now:

--VMI (8-2). The Keydets are not just a circus act anymore. They are the only Big South team without a conference loss and they have beaten Kentucky. If they can get by Charleston Southern in a roadie, they have three home games in a row and can take firm control of the conference race.
--UW-Milwaukee (7-5). After a 3-4 start, the Panthers are 4-1 since with road pelts from UIC and Loyola-Chi.
--Wright State (8-7). I mentioned this last week, but the Raiders started 0-6. They are 7-1 since with the only loss at surging Wake Forest. The defense has been off the charts crazy good. They are at Butler on Thursday in what should be a delight.
--Buffalo (8-4). Neutral wins over Colorado and Colorado State recently have help the Bulls go 5-1 after a 3-3 start.
--Illinois State (14-0). Redbirds are still mostly untested, but they completely razed a pretty good Evansville club by THIRTY.
--UNLV (13-2). Great record, no bad losses, and a win at Louisville without one of their top players. Most schools would gladly take that non-conf profile. Let's see how they handle BYU and Schizophrenic Utah (their official name until they prove otherwise).
--Morehead State (5-8). After an 0-6 start, they are 5-2 and are the only OVC team without a conference loss.
--Cal (13-2). It's really happening. Cal is going to compete for this league's crown and they get a special "Big 6 Conference Exemption" to be included on this week's list.
--Middle Tennessee (7-5). After a very disappointing 2-5 start, the Blue Pegasi have won 5 straight and are starting to look like the team that finished 11-4 last season and returned EVERY player. They are one of only two Belt teams without a conf loss (WKU).

Holdovers from last Watch List that still bear watching:
Cleveland State, Niagara, Miami-OH, BYU, College of Charleston. All have done pretty well since the last list.

Teams that have struggled:
Liberty. 2-3 since last WL.
Hofstra. 1-3 since last WL.

Tonight's GOI
--Texas Southern at Alcorn State. Combined 0-24. Someone gets off the schnide tonight.
--Georgetown at Notre Dame. Hoyas looked to bounce back after being ripped at home by Pitt.

Weekend Forecast 1/2-1/4

Weekend Forecast

Friday

--Arizona at Cal. This one feels like it matters in Bubbledom.

--Arizona State at Stanford. Combined 21-1, but neither have beaten a powerhouse.

Saturday

--Wake Forest at BYU. Combined 23-1! Again, both lack quality wins.

--Pitt at Georgetown. Combined 22-1, and with the win at UConn in tow, G'town can take a very strong position by holding serve here.

--Tennesssee at Kansas. Jayhawks need a big win on their resume.

--Michigan State at Northwestern. Cats lost at Penn St, but maybe they can work magic at home.

--Middle Tennessee at South Alabama. 2/3 of the Sun Belt's best and they are divisional foes as well.

Sunday

--Arizona State at Cal. Another Pac-10 match up that feels important.

--Kentucky at Louisville. One of the nation's top non-conference rivalries, and both really need a good win right now.

--Cincinnati at Marquette. Some teams from the Big East will get squeezed and these kinds of games are going to decide who gets to dance and who doesn't.

--Illinois at Michigan. Two of the better Big 10 teams.

--Arizona at Stanford. Cardinal need to be tested.

Happy New Year

The calendar turns to 2009 and by the end of next weekend, every conference will have games in the books, the guarantee money games will be all but over, and some of the pretenders will begin to be exposed.

This also brings some important dates for this site.

Wednesday, Jan 7: first Lockbox
Monday, Jan 12: first bracket

The Weekend forecast comes tomorrow and a new Watch List is coming on Monday.

Last Night' GOI
--at Illinois State 80, Evansville 50. Who is the Valley fave? Message received LOUD and clear.
--UNLV 56, at Louisville 55. Louisville currently has the resume of a Bubble team (best wins are UAB and Ole Miss).
--North Carolina 84, at Nevada 61. No jet lag for the Heels.
--Wisconsin 73, at Michigan 61. Badgers send a message regarding the Big Ten pecking order.
--Michigan State 70, at Minnesota 58. Gophers suffer their first loss and Sparty notches a nice road win.
--at Penn State 61, Northwestern 57. Not a good sign for NW'n's hopes.
--at Utah 66, Gonzaga 65. Zags shot just 35% in this one and Utah continues it's Jekyll/Hyde act.

Tonight's GOI
--Fairfield at Siena. 2/3 of the MAAC's best three teams.
--Villanova at Marquette. Important tussle between two Big East NCAA hopefuls.

Bracket Buster 1

Here are the Bracket Buster standings through MONDAY night's games (last night not included). I will post these weekly until the pairings are announced. I listed them by RPI, even though it's still to early for that to mean much. But, there is enough to show who is in good position early on. It seems that the power is stacked on the "away" side this year with Davidson, St. Mary's, Creighton, and Evansville all in that column.

Other interesting stories to follow:
1. Which home teams will be a in a position to score big against one of those four assuming they keep playing at a high level? Butler, of course, and probably Illinois State. Who else? Utah State? VCU? The door is open for some ambitious team on the home side.
2. Most people who care about this blog know that the Valley race will be extra-interesting this year with SIU down, Drake depleted, and a resurgent Evansville. But, also keep an eye on the MAAC. Siena was expected to be very good, but Niagara already holds five true road wins. Further, Fairfield has come out of the gate 2-0 and currently lead the standings. The Saints are still the fave, but the Purple Eagles (and possibly the Stags) look to be worthy challengers.

Last Night's GOI
--at Arkansas 96, Oklahoma 88. Hogs hand Sooners their first loss and cash in a monster win at home.
--at Butler 72, UAB 68. UAB maintains their vanilla profile.
--at Dayton 66, George Mason 62. Hard-fought "W" for the 12-1 Flyers.
--New Mexico 68, at New Mexico State 66. Proving, once again, that in-state rivalry games rarely disappoint.
--Illinois 71, at Purdue 67 (OT). How many Big 10ers think they can win in Mackey? Illini take the inside track early in the Big 10 race.
--Clemson 98, at South Carolina 87. Tigers get it done in a rivalry road game that was a track meet.
--at Wright State 71, Cleveland State 62. BEWARE THE RAIDERS! Their defense has been absolutely stifling over the last eight games in which they are 7-1 after an 0-6 start. STIFLING, I say.

Tonight's GOI
--Evansville at Illinois State. Is it me, or have there been a disproportionate number of titanic early season conference games? This is 2/3 of the best teams in the Valley so far this season.
--UNLV at Louisville. Both of these clubs could use a nice win, although UL will have far more chances in their conference as the season goes on.
--North Carolina at Nevada. It's news anytime the undisputed #1 goes on the road in non-conference, much less against a WAC school.
--Wisconsin at Michigan. Badgers are down a bit, Wolverines are ticking upward. Big statement game for both teams.
--Michigan State at Minnesota. Same here. MSU is a perennial fave, but Gophers are unblemished and have a neutral court win over Louisville.
--Northwestern at Penn State. Now we see if we are to take the Wildcats seriously. PSU is no world-beater, but if NW'n can win any conference games on the road, it's time to start looking at them as a potential NCAA team.
--Gonzaga at Utah. Wobbly Zags now face schizophrenic Utes in a dangerous game.

A Word On Memphis

The Memphis Tigers took care of Cincinnati last night in a game they absolutely needed to win. It may seem early to talk of "must wins," but last year's national runner-up and perennial high seed in recent seasons could be in some Bubble trouble this season, and a loss last night would have made their situation even more difficult.

Memphis had three big chances to score a signature win...and whiffed in a neutral game with Xavier, a game at Georgetown, and could not hold their home court against Syracuse. Cincy is their best win (currently #52 RPI) and without a somewhat unexpected big season from the Bearcats, the Tigers' non-conference resume is pretty weak. Add to that the CUSA has no other top teams, and it could get dicey for Calipari's squad especially if they lose a number of conference games. They do play at Tennessee on Jan 24, so there is one more shot at a big scalp. Outside of that, they are likely going to need to finish in the top two in CUSA to be under serious consideration for an at-large. The chances of that are good, but Memphis is far from the near lock they have been by Christmas the past few seasons (three straight THIRTY win seasons).

Last Night's GOI
--at Baylor 79, Portland State 66. Bears move to 10-1.
--Davidson 79, at College of Charleston 75. The best chance that Davidson had of losing in conference is now behind them with a "w" in the results column.
--Georgetown 74, at UConn 63. Hoyas take the inside track on the Big East race with this massive road win.
--at Memphis 60, Cincinnati 45. See above.

Tonight's GOI
--Oklahoma at Arkansas. Hogs with a chance for a big scalp at home.
--UAB at Butler. Blazers need a signature win badly.
--George Mason at Dayton. Pats need it a lot more.
--New Mexico at New Mexico State. In-state rivalry alert!
--Illinois at Purdue. Huge Big Televen opener for both teams.
--Clemson at South Carolina. In-state rivalry alert!
--Cleveland State at Wright State. Huge Horizon match up. Raiders are 6-1 in their last 7 (close loss at Wake) after starting 0-6.

Pre-Lockbox List

It's still early, and a proper bracket or Lockbox is still a week or two away, but there are a handful of teams that we can put on a pre-Lockbox list of ten teams that meet the following criteria.

1. It would shock nearly everyone if they missed the NCAA Tourney.
2. The RPI and Pomeroy ratings like them.
3. They have the kind of non-conference wins that NCAA teams need.
4. They could do as expected in conference and be assured of a bid.

Here's the list that meets these criteria in my estimation.

North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, UConn, Tennessee, Xavier

I'm not sure Tennessee and Xavier are as good as most of the other teams listed here, but they are the best teams in fairly strong conferences and they both already own some nice wins. It would be surprising if either missed.

Tonight's GOI

--Portland State at Baylor. Watch out, Bears. The Vikings have won three straight including a 27-point demolition of Montana and a win at Gonzaga.

--Davidson at College of Charleston. The two best teams in the SoCon.

--Georgetown at UConn. Clash of the Titans Game.

--Cincinnati at Memphis. Good rivalry from days of yore...and this feels like it matters in Bubbledom.

--Temple at Villanova. Owls have played a brutal schedule, but they need to win a few of the big ones.

Weekend Forecast 12/26-28

I have been traveling all over the rural grandeur that is central Kentucky this week, so it's been slow here. But, so have the games. Not a big week to say the least.

That said, as we press toward the new year, we enter conference season and that means that a lot of computer numbers and NCAA profiles are starting to round into shape. And, that means some Lockbox/bracket talk is warranted. It's coming very soon. Onto the forecast.

Saturday
--UAB at Louisville. Blazers are probably a Bubble team and could use a signature win. Of course, it is worth noting that UL's best win to date is probably Lamar or a fairly run-of-the-mill Ole Miss.
--Washington State at LSU. Both have decent records but are in dire need of good wins.
--West Virginia at Ohio State. 'Eers have been pretty solid and Buckeyes are still blemish-free.
Sunday
--Drake at Evansville. Drake vs the New Drake?
--Western Kentucky vs Florida State. Wildly inconsistent WKU goes up against a hot FSU team holding wins over Florida, Cincy, and Cal. Hard to predict this one and whatever the result, it will not be surprising.
--Siena at Saint Joseph's. At-large will be tough for either of these two, but it's likely they will factor into their conference races and/or tourneys.

Weekend Forecast 12/19-21

WKU pulled out a massive road win at South Alabama (69-66) last night, so my weekend will start well. It was a nice bounceback from the demolition they suffered at Evansville (score NEVER to be posted on this blog) last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Aces stayed within 18 of UNC. That's almost considered success these days.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Wake Forest at Richmond. Deacs are spotless, but this is their first true road game.
Saturday
--BYU vs Arizona State. Combined 18-1, but both lack a substantive win.
--Iowa at Drake. In-state rivalry alert!
--UConn vs Gonzaga. A potential Final Four preview and probably the biggest Clash of the Titans this weekend.
--UIC at Illinois State. Two Illinois teams that are off to great starts (combined 16-2).
--Temple at Kansas. This is #1 on my "to watch/DVR" list this weekend.
--Minnesota at Louisville. Tubby and Rick meet once again. Gophers are blemish-free, but unproven.
--Syracuse at Memphis. Cuse in a ROAD GAME! Alert 60 Minutes, immediately!
--VCU vs Oklahoma. Blake Griffin and Eric Maynor are both good at basketball.
--Rhode Island at Oklahoma State. One of those that feels meaningful to future Bubbledom.
--Davidson vs Purdue. A close #2 on my "to Watch/DVR" list.
--St. Mary's vs SIU. Gaels are building a profile, while Salukis are on a journey of self-discovery.
--Northwestern at Stanford. Combined 13-1 and will tell us what Cats are made of.
--Michigan State vs Texas. Guarantees to be a rugged affair. If you like football and basketball, this is your game. It will be somewhere between the two.
--Arkansas State at UALR. In-state, in-conference rivalry alert!
--Arizona at UNLV. Both will need this one come Selection day, I'll wager.
--Miami (OH) at West Virginia. Do NOT sleep on the Redhawks. You have been duly warned.
--Duke vs Xavier. Likely #2 on the Clash of the Titans list this weekend.
Sunday
--Pitt at Florida State. Combined 20-1!
--Vermont at Quinnipiac. Maybe the best of the Am East vs maybe the best of the Northeast.