Lockbox 1/28

Lockbox has been updated.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--19 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did.
--I have 15 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 34 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 24 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 10 slots right now. That's down from 12 last week. This will shrink over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

One change from Monday's bracket: South Carolina IN and Wisconsin OUT.

BracketBusters update coming tomorrow.

Last Night's GOI

--Texas 78, at Baylor 72. Horns stay one game back of the Sooners and win their 23rd straight over the Bears.
--Boston College 76, at Maryland 67. Terrapins are in bad shape.
--at Utah 94, BYU 88 (OT). Utes knock Cougars from the MWC leaders and damage their Bubble status as well.
--Northeastern 68, at VCU 63. Huskies take sole possession of first place in the CAA with a gigantic road triumph.
--at Wisconsin 64, Purdue 63. Badgers would be OUT as of today.

Tonight's GOI
--Georgetown at Cincinnati. Hoyas really need to take care of this one lest they fall onto the Bubble.
--North Carolina at Florida State. Big for both for different reasons.
--American at Navy. Two of the top 3 in the Patriot.
--Kansas at Nebraska. These are the kinds of games that will determine if KU is going to compete for a top 5 seed or not.
--Illinois State at Northern Iowa. Probably the two best Valley clubs.
--Michigan at Ohio State. Wolverines need it more and the Buckeyes have already won in Ann Arbor.
--Syracuse at Providence. Friars have a HUGE opportunity to make a serious move toward the bracket here.
--Temple at Rhode Island. Just keeping an eye on the Owls.
--LSU at Tennessee. Tigers need it more. Their baby-soft schedule is not going to get them IN unless they win the West and/or beat teams like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida.
--Pitt at Villanova. Nova is not a mortal lock by any stretch, but this would go a long way to erasing that "no big wins" status. Pitt is playing to win the Big East and secure a one seed so every game is big in that regard.
--Duke at Wake Forest. This will test the Dukies' mettle and they can prove that they are deserving of the title "best team in the country" at this stage.

Watch List

Northwestern
The Cats are just 2-5 in the Big Televen, but they have 5/6 conference games at home in the coming weeks are they are toting some big pelts already (Minnesota, Michigan State, Florida State). If they can defend the home court, they are going to be in the at-large conversation.

Temple
Just keep them on the back burner. That monster SOS is going to pay off if they keep winning in the A10.

Saint Joseph's
The at-large profile is not there, but they have won 6 straight and are blemish-free in the A10.

Wright State
TBB has been all over the Raiders for weeks, but just an update: 12-2 after starting 0-6 and playing some of the best D in the nation. Those two losses were at Wake and at Butler. Who COULD win those games??!?! Mark your calendar for Feb 7. That's when Butler comes to town.

Last Night's GOI
--Oklahoma 89, at Oklahoma State 81. Another solid win for the Sooners. They are looking more and more like a 1-seed.
--Marquette 71, at Notre Dame 64. Irish may need to dig out some road wins. They have three in a road coming up.

Tonight's GOI
--Texas at Baylor. Two teams with designs on challenging Oklahoma. If they want to do that, they need to win this game.
--Boston College at Maryland. Feel the desperation?
--BYU at Utah. Two of the 39 contenders for the Mt West crown. Seriously, SIX teams are tied atop the league with two losses!
--Purdue at Wisconsin. Badgers find themselves approaching desperation mode due to a 4-game losing streak.

Bracket Update 1/26

New bracket is up.

I took Missouri, Oklahoma State, UNLV, and Wisconsin over teams like South Carolina, Penn State, Southern Cal, Northwestern, Stanford, LSU, Temple, Miami-OH, Boston College, and Texas A&M among a few others.

Tonight's GOI
--Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. Can the Red River run red with blood or is it redundant to say so?
--Marquette at Notre Dame. Irish need to bounce back quickly after having their home streak snapped by UConn. Eagles are STILL blemish-free in conference play.

Weekend Forecast 1/23-25

Last Night's GOI
--at Butler 69, UW-Green Bay 59. Dogs continue to handle all comers.
--West Virginia 75, at Georgetown 58. They Hoyas might get beat up a bit in league play...and be one of the most fearsome 8/9 seeds to ever bedevil the days of man.
--Purdue 70, at Minnesota 62. The kind of road game league champs win.
--St. Mary's 65, at San Diego 42. It appears it is once a gain a two-horse race in the WCC.
--at Washington 78, Southern Cal 73. Huskies are certainly tracking in the right direction.
--Providence 98, at Seton Hall 93 (OT). Friars stay on the fringe of Bubbledom.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--San Diego State at BYU. Couple of Mt West Bubble Boys.
--Wisconsin at Illinois. Badgers try to avoid slipping below .500 in league play. That's a tall order here.
--Kansas at Iowa State. Young Jayhawks must learn to fly out of their comfy nest.
--Xavier at LSU. Tigers have been hammering schools from Mississippi of late, but lack ANY wins of real significance. This would change that.
--Buffalo at Miami-OH. Probably the two best teams in the MAC.
--Northwestern at Michigan. Both need it, but a loss would be Michigan's fourth straight. Can't really afford to lose this one at home.
--Oklahoma State at Nebraska. A test for Bubble Cowboys.
--UConn at Notre Dame. Irish have the nation's longest home win streak on the line.
--Baylor at Oklahoma. Bears fall two games back of Sooners with a loss.
--Iowa at Penn State. Two fringe teams looking to get into the bracket.
--Niagara at Siena. If any MAAC team is going to challenge the Saints, it's the Purple Eagles.
--Mississippi at South Carolina. Gamecocks need to pile up a bunch of SEC wins to have a shot.
--Memphis at Tennessee. One of the bigger non-conference tilts left this season.
--Texas A&M at Texas. At this stage, Aggies are going to need to beat some Big 12 heavies.
--Utah at UNLV. Two more Mt West Bubble Boys.
--UCLA at Washington. For the outright Pac-10 lead. Also, Huskies are 12-1 in their last 13.
Sunday
--Virgnia Tech at Miami-FL. Hokies have new life after winning at Wake. They are 8-1 in last nine, too.
--Michigan State at Ohio State. Sparty looks to maintain its 1-game lead while tOSU tries to avoid falling below .500 in league play.
--Louisville at Syracuse. Orange would be three back of leaders with a loss.
--Pittsburgh at West Virginia. Panthers certainly do not want to fall two back of leaders in the loss column.

Buster 4

Buster update is up. Marquee match ups would look something like:

Butler at Davidson
Utah State at St. Mary's
Miami-OH at Siena
George Mason at Creighton

Tonight's GOI
--UW-Green Bay at Butler. GB has won 9 of 10.
--West Virginia at Georgetown. Some of these Big East have to lose some games.
--Purdue at Minnesota. Big Televen race is wide open so every game seems to have championship implications.
--St. Mary's at San Diego. Two of three WCC that are still unbeaten in conference play.
--Southern Cal at Washington. Trojans need it more.
--Providence at Seton Hall. Friars have little margin for error. They are going to have to win this type of road game to stay in the hunt.

Lockbox 1/21

The Lockbox has been updated.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--18 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did.
--I have 14 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 32 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 22 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 12 slots right now. That's down from 16 last week. This will shrink over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

BracketBusters update coming tomorrow or Friday.

Last Night's GOI
--Creighton 79, at Evansville 57. The Valley is a carnival and these two are especially tough to figure.
--at Illinois 67, Ohio State 49. Illini are going to be a factor in the Big 10 title race.
--at Penn State 73, Michigan 58. Lions strengthen their NCAA hand.
--Tennessee 76, at Vanderbilt 63. Vols brought back the defense.

Tonight's GOI
--Northwestern at Michigan State. Cats looking for that signature win.
--George Mason at Northeastern. CAA leader at a title challenger. Good one.
--Villanova at UConn. Tough row to hoe for Cats, but also an opportunity to land a big fish.
--Florida at South Carolina. If the Gamecocks are going to stay in the picture, they are going to have to win against the better SEC teams.
--Florida State at Miami-FL. ACC and big-time Bubble implications.
--Mississippi State at LSU. Both are fringe Bubble Boys looking to make hay.
--Bradley at Northern Iowa. Maybe the two best Valley teams. Who knows...
--Wisconsin at Iowa. Badgers are not nearly as secure as in former seasons. They cannot afford to lose games like this one.
--Clemson at North Carolina. Clash of the Titans Game of the Night.
--Missouri and Oklahoma State. The Big 12 version of FSU/Miami-FL.
--Arizona State at Arizona. In-state rivalry alert! And Zona is in desperate need of a good win.
--UNLV at BYU. Massive MtWest tilt.

GOI 1/20

Lockbox update/analysis coming tomorrow.

Last Night's GOI
--at East Tenn State 87, Belmont 57. A Reagan-over-Mondale-level blowout in this A-Sun co-leader (Belmont no more) match up.
--at Kansas 73, Texas A&M 53. Aggies remain classically Bubbly.
--at Pitt 78, Syracuse 60. Keeping with the theme of blowouts...
--at Providence 72, Cincinnati 63. And we closed with another comfy win by the home team keeping with the theme of the night.

Tonight's GOI
--Creighton at Evansville. Sputtering Valley teams look to right the ship.
--Ohio State at Illinois. Two teams with designs on the Big Televen title and protected NCAA seeds.
--Michigan at Penn State. Lions can get into the convo with some big conference wins. Good chance at home here.
--Tennessee at Vanderbilt. Memorial Magic has tripped up many a team in Nashville.

Bracket Update 1/19

Bracket is up.

At the bottom, I took BYU, Stanford, Miami-FL, UNLV, and Missouri over teams that included Maryland, Boston College, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.

There will be a substantial Lockbox update this week either tomorrow or Wednesday that looks at the multi-bid conference situation.

Tonight's GOI
--Belmont at East Tenn State. A-Sun powers square off in a BIG game (2/3 A-Sun's 1-loss teams).
--Texas A&M at Kansas. Aggies need some weight on their resume.
--Syracuse at Pitt. Clash of Titans Game of the Night.
--Cincinnati at Providence. Fringe BEast Bubble Boys must feel like they are already in must-win mode.

Buster 3/Weekend Forecast 1/16-18

Buster Update is up. The marquee match ups would look something like:

Butler at Davidson
Utah State at Siena
Illinois State at St. Mary's
George Mason at Creighton

Last Night's GOI
--at Nevada 77, Boise State 63. Pack still has life in them.
--Purdue 63, at Northwestern 61. A KILLER for the Cats. They led by 13 at half, but the Boilers stormed back.
--Xavier 67, at Rhode Island 65. The Rams may truly regret this one on SelSun.
--at USC 61, Arizona State 49. Trojans get a nice win. Maybe this will spark a march toward the bracket.
--UConn 67, at St. John's 55. The Johnnies were game for a good while, but...
--at UCLA 83, Arizona 60. Zona has been to 24 straight NCAA Tourneys. That's the longest streak in the nation. And it's in real jeopardy this season.
--at UW-Green Bay 80, Cleveland State 65. Game was tied at half!
--North Carolina 83, at Virginia 61. Heels get their first ACC win.
--at WKU 63, Middle Tennessee 61. Toppers do their job by holding serve at home and now are tied with MT atop the league standings and hold tie-breaker...at the moment.
--Minnesota 78, at Wisconsin 74 (OT). Gophers rally from 9 down with 3.24 left to clip the Badgers in the Kohl Center. Time to start thinking of the Gophers as serious Big 10 challengers.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Saturday
--Maryland at Florida State. Terps could use some quality wins. FSU is in pretty good shape, but they have to hold their home court.
--Notre Dame at Syracuse. Irish need to show they can get things done on the road against top teams if they want a protected seed.
--Northern Iowa at Drake. One of these two will not be tied for first after this tussle.
--Georgetown at Duke. A peach of a inter-conference game this late in the season.
--Oklahoma State at Baylor. Both looking Bubbly.
--Oklahoma at Texas A&M. Aggies are 11-0 at home.
--Arkansas at Florida. Couple of SEC Bubble Boys.
--Wake Forest at Clemson. CLASH OF THE TITANS game of the weekend.
--Arizona State at UCLA. Devils try to bounce back in a tough roadie after falling to USC.
--Boston College at Virginia Tech. Eagles bracket line is in jeopardy.
--Rider at Niagara. Probably the two best MAAC teams not named Siena.
--Miami-FL at North Carolina. 'Canes have won 6 straight.
--Marquette at Providence. With Cincy fading, the Friars are the only legit NCAA Bubble team apart from the Top 9 in the BEast.
--Arizona at USC. Both need it BADLY.
--Cal at Stanford. Cardinal are 1-3 in conference, so losing home games in not advisable.
--South Carolina at Tennessee. With the Vols looking quite vulnerable, the Gamecocks have a shot to lift themselves into Bubble contention with a win here.
--Middle Tennessee at UALR. MT is tied for Belt lead in the East while the Trojans lead the West.
--Wyoming at UNLV. Nobody is talking about the 10-4 Cowboys, but their 4 losses are to teams #54 and better in the RPI and they have beaten Northern Iowa and San Diego State. They are a sleeper in the MWC.
--Boise State at Utah State. Another big MWC game.
--Cleveland State at UW-Milwaukee. Couple of tough Horizon customers.
Sunday
--Minnesota at Northwestern. Gophers need to consolidate that win over Wiscy while Cats fight for their lives.

BracketBusters Tomorrow

I am in a conference at my real job all day today, so the Buster update will have to wait until tomorrow.

Lotta BIG action tonight.

Tonight's GOI
--Boise State at Nevada. New-guard WAC vs. old-guard WAC.
--Purdue at Northwestern. This game will help show if Purdue is the real Big Televen fave or not.
--Xavier at Rhode Island. Rams almost must have it if they harbor any at-large hopes.
--Arizona State at USC. Trojans' prospects are bleak. They need a big one.
--UConn at St. John's. The Johnnies just took care of Notre Dame at home, so beware, Huskies.
--Arizona at UCLA. Not as big as it usually is as the Cats are playing for their Bubbly lives already.
--Cleveland State at UW-Green Bay. Two of several good Horizon teams.
--North Carolina at Virginia. Heels seeking their first ACC win in three tries.
--Middle Tennessee at WKU. The two best teams in the Sun Belt. Toppers almost have to have it if they expect to challenge MTSU in the East. A loss sends them two games back of the Blue Pegasi with a trip to Murfreesboro still to go. WKU needs it much more.
--Minnesota at Wisconsin. Nice Big 10 tilt and a win by the Gophers at Wiscy would send a loud message.

Lockbox 1/14

There is more security in the Lockbox this week, but the Bubble is still too unwieldy to talk about with any definition.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--15 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but it would be very surprising if the did even at this early stage.
--I have 10 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if the win the games they "should" win (nebulous at this point), they should be fine.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at a massive 16 slots right now. This will shrink over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five.

A lot of the teams in green will upgrade their status this week with a couple more wins. But, rest assured, some of the blue teams will slip as they lose a head-scratcher.

BracketBusters update coming tomorrow.

Last Night's GOI
--at BYU 73, TCU 61. Cougars move to 13-2 and stay tied with SDSU atop the MtWest.
--at Kansas 87, Kansas State 71. Jayhawks started this game on an 18-0 run only to see their lead closed to 3 at one point.
--Florida State 78, at NC State 65. It seems to be happening for FSU this year if the hold their home court reasonably well in the ACC.
--Northern Iowa 58, at Evansville 47. Beware the Panthers, winners of five straight including three of the toughest Valley road venues. They are in the driver's seat.
--Kentucky 90, at Tennessee 72. We have a new favorite to win the SEC East. And it's Jodie Meeks. He went for 54 (thanks for the correction, dear reader...I think he had 46 when I went to sleep on the couch) in this one.
--Memphis 55, at Tulsa 54. Buzzer-beating heartbreaker for the 'Canes.

Tonight's GOI
--Wake Forest at Boston College. Let's see if Wake avoids the UNC letdown.
--Syracuse at Georgetown. This one has the same level of importance as those Reggie Williams v. Stevie Thompson teams had.
--Michigan at Illinois. Both are outsiders to win the league.
--Drake at Illinois State. Could the Redbirds lose their 3rd straight? Drake needs it to stay tied atop the Valley.
--South Carolina at LSU. One or both of these teams feel like pretenders to me.
--Maryland at Miami-FL. Big Bubble impact.
--Arkansas at Mississippi. Hogs need this one to right the ship.
--Michigan State at Penn State. Careful, Sparty. Lions are looking for a signature win.
--Baylor at Texas A&M. TAMU needs it more.

GOI 1/13

I must be short today. Updated Lockbox complete with breakdown coming tomorrow.

Last Night's GOI
--at Belmont 79, Lipscomb 74. Rivalry held up as superior Belmont had to scratch one out
--at Louisville 87, Notre Dame 73. Good one...until UL won 14-0 in overtime.
--at Oklahoma 78, Texas 63. If there was any doubt about who the Big XII fave was, there is not any now.

Tonight's GOI
--TCU at BYU. People are learning about BYU, but the Horned Frogs are 9-2 after a 1-3 start.
--Kansas State at Kansas. In-state rivalry alert!
--Florida State at NC State. Same ol' Noles, or will they really take care of the games they need to this year?
--Northern Iowa at Evansville. I cannot imagine many Valley teams will sweep their games at Creighton and SIU, but the Panthers have done just that and sit tied atop the Valley standings with Bradley and (don't look now!) Drake at 4-1. E-ville has cooled since their 2008 Drake-ish start, but are a tough out at home.
--Kentucky at Tennessee. The SEC has no titanic match ups. This is probably as big as it gets in January for the SEC this year.
--Memphis at Tulsa. Golden 'Canes are 6-1 in their last seven.

Bracket Day!

The first bracket is up! This is mostly for kicks at this point, but the significant news is that UNC is NOT a 1-seed. Frankly, I never thought they would be less than a 1 in ANY bracket this season.

The Big East has nine teams in and I think that's likely this season when it's said and done. No extensive breakdown this week as that is more helpful when the RPI and conference records actually mean something.

At the bottom, I took Miami-FL, Kentucky, Washington, Boston College and Oklahoma State over Maryland, Utah, San Diego State, Stanford, Texas A&M, Arizona and South Carolina. I could have just as easily drawn those last 5 or so slots out of a hat at this point, though.

It's officially bracket season. Enjoy!

Tonight's GOI
--Lipscomb at Belmont. In-city rivarly alert (Nashville)!
--Notre Dame at Louisville. Cards come home after a nice road win at Villanova.
--Texas at Oklahoma. Always a fun rivalry and this one has big-time Big XII title race implications.

Weekend Forecast 1/9-11

Last Night' GOI

--at Butler 64, Wright State 48. The Bulldogs are tough. Raiders will need lots of help to catch Butler now.
--Minnesota 52, at Iowa 49. Good win for Gophers. These are the kind that keep you on the Bubble's good side.
--at Washington 84, Stanford 83. Huskies hold serve at home as the look to end their NCAA drought.

WEEKEND FORECAST

Tonight

--Rider at Siena. Big one in the MAAC.
--UW-Green Bay at UW-Milwaukee. In-state rivalry alert!
Saturday

--Miami-OH at Boston College. Feels like a meaningful Bubble game.
--UConn at Cincinnati. Bearcats need to score some big ones to stay in the picture. This is their first of five MAJOR home conference games.
--Duke at Florida State. Devils always seem to struggle in Tallahassee.
--Oklahoma at Kansas State. Interesting because the Pomeroy rankings really like K-State, but they are largely untested.
--Vanderbilt at Kentucky. Badly needed by both--big Bubble implications.
--West Virginia at Marquette. I guess most Big East games qualify as important for the Bubble, don't they?
--Kansas at Michigan State. One of the final big-time non-conference match ups.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma State. Both are largely unproven with nice records.
--Rhode Island at Saint Joseph's. Rams need this type of game to stay in the picture this season.
--Utah at San Diego State. If Schizophrenic Utes win here, I'll stop picking on them.
--Louisville at Villanova. Cats look to avoid slipping to 1-2 in conference.
--Cal at Washington. The Pac-10 race is not a UCLA coronation this year, and these two could factor into who wins this league. Cal has won 8 straight and the Huskies have ripped off 9 in a row.
Sunday
--Temple at LaSalle. Philly goodness. LaSalle is warming up, going 7-2 in their last nine, while Temple is 7-6 against one of the tougher schedules in the country.
--Penn State at Minnesota. Believe or not, if Penn State wins here, they will likely be in the bracket on Monday.
--Wisconsin at Purdue. Boilers badly need this to avoid an 0-3 start in Big Ten play.
--St. Mary's at San Francisco. Probably the Gaels most dangerous conference game outside of Gonzaga.
--UCLA at USC. UCLA looks to complete a 3-game road sweep of Pac-10 foes.
--North Carolina at Wake Forest. Wake is one of only three undefeated teams left (Pitt, Clemson), but they have not faced an opponent that lives in the same neighborhood at UNC (attested by their RPI of 32 despite no losses). Their win at BYU convinced me they are good. Let's see how they handle a 1-seed.

BracketBusters 2 (01/08)

It was a fairly topsy-turvy night last evening. BC backed up their gigantic win over clear title favorite North Carolina in Chapel Hill with a home loss to Harvard. By 12. Michigan nearly lost at Indiana and needed OT to escape. And, Morgan State of the MEAC went into Maryland and cashed in a win. Check the Lockbox from yesterday and you will see Morgan State as the projected winner of the MEAC.

BracketBusters update is ready. Currently, the marquee games would look something like:

Butler at St. Mary's
Miami-OH at Evansville
Illinois State at Davidson
Bradley at Siena

Last Night's GOI
--Providence 87, at Cincinnati 79. Friars are now 7-1 in their last eight and 3-0 in Big East play. Big test at Georgetown on Saturday.
--at Duke 79, Davidson 67. No win, but Davidson showed their mettle in cutting a 25-point lead to 8 in the 2nd half.
--Gonzaga 89, at Tennessee 79 (OT). Zags right the ship and the SEC still has not shown it has a legit top 15 team.

Tonight's GOI
--Wright State at Butler. I've been touting the Raiders for a couple of weeks now. Let's see if that super defense is ready for the big time.
--Minnesota at Iowa. Nice match up of mid-pack Big 10 teams.
--Stanford at Washington. Both need some quality wins as neither has beaten a sure-fire NCAA team.

Lockbox 1/06

Bracket season is officially here as the Lockbox makes its first appearance. Take this with a 6-lb grain of salt, but it is an attempt to see where teams stand at this point. A few interesting notes:

1. The Big East might get shaken up a bit, but at this point, there is a clear line of demarcation after nine teams. Pitt, UConn, Georgetown, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Villanova and Marquette seem to be in good position. One can only assume Louisville will get it together with three likely NBA players on the roster. All nine of those can be found in the top 34 of the efficiency numbers (before last night's games). From there, it's a long tumble to Bubble hopefuls Cincinnati and Providence. The bottom five are likely done before they even really get started in Big East play. Cincy and Providence might upend enough contenders to sneak in, but the line seems pretty clear even at this early stage.

2. The SEC is terrible by power conference standards. Tennessee has been good, not great, and there is no team that can be considere a lock beyond them. Arkansas is the only team in the West that can feel good about their current profile.

3. Outside of the power conferences, Illinois State, Xavier, Gonzaga, and BYU look the cream of the crop at this stage. But, Illinois State lost at Bradley last night and have no marquee wins and none forthcoming in the Valley. It's going to be tough for them to find their way in if they lose more than three games.

4. There is still bias in this Lockbox. Some teams simply have not been tested enough to know how good they are, so some guesswork is still there. There will be less and less of this as we go along in the next few weeks.

Last Night's GOI
--at Arkansas 67, Texas 61. Hogs have staked claim to the best non-conference profile in the SEC West.
--at Bradley 56, Illinois State 52. Coupled with Creighton's loss to Northern Iowa, this could be an early sign that the Valley is a one-bid league this year. Braves have now won 6 of 7.
--at Dayton 45, Miami-OH 40. Flyers survive a meat-grinder from the Redhawks.
--at Georgia Tech 67, Georgia 62. Jackets rally after a slow start to hold off Dawgs.
--at Kansas 91, Siena 84. The Saints did not get that monster non-conference win, but they have established themselves as a very dangerous team.
--at Michigan State 67, Ohio State 58. This puts OSU in a 2-game hole behind MSU.
--UConn 61, at West Virginia 55. Huge road win for the Huskies in the first of three straight conference roadies.

Tonight's GOI
--Providence at Cincinnati. Neither can really afford to lose to the other. Not when there are nine other teams in the league better than these two.
--Davidson at Duke. ESPN ticker teaser: "Duke takes on leading scorer Curry." Well, if Davidson's other players are allowed to suit up, it should be interesting.
--Gonzaga at Tennessee. The Zags beat UT in the Old Spice Classic over Thanksgiving, but this game in Knoxville will be a tough test for struggling GU.

Lockbox Tomorrow

Short on time today, but TBB will unveil the season's first Lockbox tomorrow.

Last Night's GOI
--Texas Southern 81, at Alcorn State 64. Winless no more! At least for Texas Southern...
--at Notre Dame 73,Georgetown 67. Irish defend the home court against a fellow Big East contender.

Tonight's GOI
--Texas at Arkansas. Hogs have already beaten Oklahoma at home and the SEC West is soft. A win here puts them in pretty good shape.
--Illinois State at Bradley. Braves have won five of six, while Cardinals have ravaged Evansville and Creighton lately and are still undefeated.
--Miami-OH at Dayton. Redhawks continue their death march of a schedule...and they are holding their own.
--Georgia at Georgia Tech. In-state rivalry alert! Both looking for a spark, too.
--Siena at Kansas. The Saints scheduled like bloodthirsty hunters and here is another shot at a big pelt.
--Ohio State at Michigan State. Buckeyes certainly do not want to fall two games behind Sparty this early.
--UConn at West Virginia. Another titanic Big East match up.

Watch List 3

A few more teams to keep an eye on that are mostly flying under the national radar right now:

--VMI (8-2). The Keydets are not just a circus act anymore. They are the only Big South team without a conference loss and they have beaten Kentucky. If they can get by Charleston Southern in a roadie, they have three home games in a row and can take firm control of the conference race.
--UW-Milwaukee (7-5). After a 3-4 start, the Panthers are 4-1 since with road pelts from UIC and Loyola-Chi.
--Wright State (8-7). I mentioned this last week, but the Raiders started 0-6. They are 7-1 since with the only loss at surging Wake Forest. The defense has been off the charts crazy good. They are at Butler on Thursday in what should be a delight.
--Buffalo (8-4). Neutral wins over Colorado and Colorado State recently have help the Bulls go 5-1 after a 3-3 start.
--Illinois State (14-0). Redbirds are still mostly untested, but they completely razed a pretty good Evansville club by THIRTY.
--UNLV (13-2). Great record, no bad losses, and a win at Louisville without one of their top players. Most schools would gladly take that non-conf profile. Let's see how they handle BYU and Schizophrenic Utah (their official name until they prove otherwise).
--Morehead State (5-8). After an 0-6 start, they are 5-2 and are the only OVC team without a conference loss.
--Cal (13-2). It's really happening. Cal is going to compete for this league's crown and they get a special "Big 6 Conference Exemption" to be included on this week's list.
--Middle Tennessee (7-5). After a very disappointing 2-5 start, the Blue Pegasi have won 5 straight and are starting to look like the team that finished 11-4 last season and returned EVERY player. They are one of only two Belt teams without a conf loss (WKU).

Holdovers from last Watch List that still bear watching:
Cleveland State, Niagara, Miami-OH, BYU, College of Charleston. All have done pretty well since the last list.

Teams that have struggled:
Liberty. 2-3 since last WL.
Hofstra. 1-3 since last WL.

Tonight's GOI
--Texas Southern at Alcorn State. Combined 0-24. Someone gets off the schnide tonight.
--Georgetown at Notre Dame. Hoyas looked to bounce back after being ripped at home by Pitt.

Weekend Forecast 1/2-1/4

Weekend Forecast

Friday

--Arizona at Cal. This one feels like it matters in Bubbledom.

--Arizona State at Stanford. Combined 21-1, but neither have beaten a powerhouse.

Saturday

--Wake Forest at BYU. Combined 23-1! Again, both lack quality wins.

--Pitt at Georgetown. Combined 22-1, and with the win at UConn in tow, G'town can take a very strong position by holding serve here.

--Tennesssee at Kansas. Jayhawks need a big win on their resume.

--Michigan State at Northwestern. Cats lost at Penn St, but maybe they can work magic at home.

--Middle Tennessee at South Alabama. 2/3 of the Sun Belt's best and they are divisional foes as well.

Sunday

--Arizona State at Cal. Another Pac-10 match up that feels important.

--Kentucky at Louisville. One of the nation's top non-conference rivalries, and both really need a good win right now.

--Cincinnati at Marquette. Some teams from the Big East will get squeezed and these kinds of games are going to decide who gets to dance and who doesn't.

--Illinois at Michigan. Two of the better Big 10 teams.

--Arizona at Stanford. Cardinal need to be tested.

Happy New Year

The calendar turns to 2009 and by the end of next weekend, every conference will have games in the books, the guarantee money games will be all but over, and some of the pretenders will begin to be exposed.

This also brings some important dates for this site.

Wednesday, Jan 7: first Lockbox
Monday, Jan 12: first bracket

The Weekend forecast comes tomorrow and a new Watch List is coming on Monday.

Last Night' GOI
--at Illinois State 80, Evansville 50. Who is the Valley fave? Message received LOUD and clear.
--UNLV 56, at Louisville 55. Louisville currently has the resume of a Bubble team (best wins are UAB and Ole Miss).
--North Carolina 84, at Nevada 61. No jet lag for the Heels.
--Wisconsin 73, at Michigan 61. Badgers send a message regarding the Big Ten pecking order.
--Michigan State 70, at Minnesota 58. Gophers suffer their first loss and Sparty notches a nice road win.
--at Penn State 61, Northwestern 57. Not a good sign for NW'n's hopes.
--at Utah 66, Gonzaga 65. Zags shot just 35% in this one and Utah continues it's Jekyll/Hyde act.

Tonight's GOI
--Fairfield at Siena. 2/3 of the MAAC's best three teams.
--Villanova at Marquette. Important tussle between two Big East NCAA hopefuls.

Bracket Buster 1

Here are the Bracket Buster standings through MONDAY night's games (last night not included). I will post these weekly until the pairings are announced. I listed them by RPI, even though it's still to early for that to mean much. But, there is enough to show who is in good position early on. It seems that the power is stacked on the "away" side this year with Davidson, St. Mary's, Creighton, and Evansville all in that column.

Other interesting stories to follow:
1. Which home teams will be a in a position to score big against one of those four assuming they keep playing at a high level? Butler, of course, and probably Illinois State. Who else? Utah State? VCU? The door is open for some ambitious team on the home side.
2. Most people who care about this blog know that the Valley race will be extra-interesting this year with SIU down, Drake depleted, and a resurgent Evansville. But, also keep an eye on the MAAC. Siena was expected to be very good, but Niagara already holds five true road wins. Further, Fairfield has come out of the gate 2-0 and currently lead the standings. The Saints are still the fave, but the Purple Eagles (and possibly the Stags) look to be worthy challengers.

Last Night's GOI
--at Arkansas 96, Oklahoma 88. Hogs hand Sooners their first loss and cash in a monster win at home.
--at Butler 72, UAB 68. UAB maintains their vanilla profile.
--at Dayton 66, George Mason 62. Hard-fought "W" for the 12-1 Flyers.
--New Mexico 68, at New Mexico State 66. Proving, once again, that in-state rivalry games rarely disappoint.
--Illinois 71, at Purdue 67 (OT). How many Big 10ers think they can win in Mackey? Illini take the inside track early in the Big 10 race.
--Clemson 98, at South Carolina 87. Tigers get it done in a rivalry road game that was a track meet.
--at Wright State 71, Cleveland State 62. BEWARE THE RAIDERS! Their defense has been absolutely stifling over the last eight games in which they are 7-1 after an 0-6 start. STIFLING, I say.

Tonight's GOI
--Evansville at Illinois State. Is it me, or have there been a disproportionate number of titanic early season conference games? This is 2/3 of the best teams in the Valley so far this season.
--UNLV at Louisville. Both of these clubs could use a nice win, although UL will have far more chances in their conference as the season goes on.
--North Carolina at Nevada. It's news anytime the undisputed #1 goes on the road in non-conference, much less against a WAC school.
--Wisconsin at Michigan. Badgers are down a bit, Wolverines are ticking upward. Big statement game for both teams.
--Michigan State at Minnesota. Same here. MSU is a perennial fave, but Gophers are unblemished and have a neutral court win over Louisville.
--Northwestern at Penn State. Now we see if we are to take the Wildcats seriously. PSU is no world-beater, but if NW'n can win any conference games on the road, it's time to start looking at them as a potential NCAA team.
--Gonzaga at Utah. Wobbly Zags now face schizophrenic Utes in a dangerous game.

A Word On Memphis

The Memphis Tigers took care of Cincinnati last night in a game they absolutely needed to win. It may seem early to talk of "must wins," but last year's national runner-up and perennial high seed in recent seasons could be in some Bubble trouble this season, and a loss last night would have made their situation even more difficult.

Memphis had three big chances to score a signature win...and whiffed in a neutral game with Xavier, a game at Georgetown, and could not hold their home court against Syracuse. Cincy is their best win (currently #52 RPI) and without a somewhat unexpected big season from the Bearcats, the Tigers' non-conference resume is pretty weak. Add to that the CUSA has no other top teams, and it could get dicey for Calipari's squad especially if they lose a number of conference games. They do play at Tennessee on Jan 24, so there is one more shot at a big scalp. Outside of that, they are likely going to need to finish in the top two in CUSA to be under serious consideration for an at-large. The chances of that are good, but Memphis is far from the near lock they have been by Christmas the past few seasons (three straight THIRTY win seasons).

Last Night's GOI
--at Baylor 79, Portland State 66. Bears move to 10-1.
--Davidson 79, at College of Charleston 75. The best chance that Davidson had of losing in conference is now behind them with a "w" in the results column.
--Georgetown 74, at UConn 63. Hoyas take the inside track on the Big East race with this massive road win.
--at Memphis 60, Cincinnati 45. See above.

Tonight's GOI
--Oklahoma at Arkansas. Hogs with a chance for a big scalp at home.
--UAB at Butler. Blazers need a signature win badly.
--George Mason at Dayton. Pats need it a lot more.
--New Mexico at New Mexico State. In-state rivalry alert!
--Illinois at Purdue. Huge Big Televen opener for both teams.
--Clemson at South Carolina. In-state rivalry alert!
--Cleveland State at Wright State. Huge Horizon match up. Raiders are 6-1 in their last 7 (close loss at Wake) after starting 0-6.

Pre-Lockbox List

It's still early, and a proper bracket or Lockbox is still a week or two away, but there are a handful of teams that we can put on a pre-Lockbox list of ten teams that meet the following criteria.

1. It would shock nearly everyone if they missed the NCAA Tourney.
2. The RPI and Pomeroy ratings like them.
3. They have the kind of non-conference wins that NCAA teams need.
4. They could do as expected in conference and be assured of a bid.

Here's the list that meets these criteria in my estimation.

North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, UConn, Tennessee, Xavier

I'm not sure Tennessee and Xavier are as good as most of the other teams listed here, but they are the best teams in fairly strong conferences and they both already own some nice wins. It would be surprising if either missed.

Tonight's GOI

--Portland State at Baylor. Watch out, Bears. The Vikings have won three straight including a 27-point demolition of Montana and a win at Gonzaga.

--Davidson at College of Charleston. The two best teams in the SoCon.

--Georgetown at UConn. Clash of the Titans Game.

--Cincinnati at Memphis. Good rivalry from days of yore...and this feels like it matters in Bubbledom.

--Temple at Villanova. Owls have played a brutal schedule, but they need to win a few of the big ones.

Weekend Forecast 12/26-28

I have been traveling all over the rural grandeur that is central Kentucky this week, so it's been slow here. But, so have the games. Not a big week to say the least.

That said, as we press toward the new year, we enter conference season and that means that a lot of computer numbers and NCAA profiles are starting to round into shape. And, that means some Lockbox/bracket talk is warranted. It's coming very soon. Onto the forecast.

Saturday
--UAB at Louisville. Blazers are probably a Bubble team and could use a signature win. Of course, it is worth noting that UL's best win to date is probably Lamar or a fairly run-of-the-mill Ole Miss.
--Washington State at LSU. Both have decent records but are in dire need of good wins.
--West Virginia at Ohio State. 'Eers have been pretty solid and Buckeyes are still blemish-free.
Sunday
--Drake at Evansville. Drake vs the New Drake?
--Western Kentucky vs Florida State. Wildly inconsistent WKU goes up against a hot FSU team holding wins over Florida, Cincy, and Cal. Hard to predict this one and whatever the result, it will not be surprising.
--Siena at Saint Joseph's. At-large will be tough for either of these two, but it's likely they will factor into their conference races and/or tourneys.

Weekend Forecast 12/19-21

WKU pulled out a massive road win at South Alabama (69-66) last night, so my weekend will start well. It was a nice bounceback from the demolition they suffered at Evansville (score NEVER to be posted on this blog) last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Aces stayed within 18 of UNC. That's almost considered success these days.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Wake Forest at Richmond. Deacs are spotless, but this is their first true road game.
Saturday
--BYU vs Arizona State. Combined 18-1, but both lack a substantive win.
--Iowa at Drake. In-state rivalry alert!
--UConn vs Gonzaga. A potential Final Four preview and probably the biggest Clash of the Titans this weekend.
--UIC at Illinois State. Two Illinois teams that are off to great starts (combined 16-2).
--Temple at Kansas. This is #1 on my "to watch/DVR" list this weekend.
--Minnesota at Louisville. Tubby and Rick meet once again. Gophers are blemish-free, but unproven.
--Syracuse at Memphis. Cuse in a ROAD GAME! Alert 60 Minutes, immediately!
--VCU vs Oklahoma. Blake Griffin and Eric Maynor are both good at basketball.
--Rhode Island at Oklahoma State. One of those that feels meaningful to future Bubbledom.
--Davidson vs Purdue. A close #2 on my "to Watch/DVR" list.
--St. Mary's vs SIU. Gaels are building a profile, while Salukis are on a journey of self-discovery.
--Northwestern at Stanford. Combined 13-1 and will tell us what Cats are made of.
--Michigan State vs Texas. Guarantees to be a rugged affair. If you like football and basketball, this is your game. It will be somewhere between the two.
--Arkansas State at UALR. In-state, in-conference rivalry alert!
--Arizona at UNLV. Both will need this one come Selection day, I'll wager.
--Miami (OH) at West Virginia. Do NOT sleep on the Redhawks. You have been duly warned.
--Duke vs Xavier. Likely #2 on the Clash of the Titans list this weekend.
Sunday
--Pitt at Florida State. Combined 20-1!
--Vermont at Quinnipiac. Maybe the best of the Am East vs maybe the best of the Northeast.

Watch List 2

In the second version of the Watch List, all Big 6 types have been purged. Any team who is doing well in the power conferences is going to get pub. So, here is who you may not be hearing about right now, but might show up on a bracket line in March.

Temple (5-3). The X and Dayton are feeling the love with their hot starts, but the Owls get overlooked due to three losses. Yes, two of those losses are to MAC teams, but both Buffalo and Miami (OH) have looked fairly good so far. And, they have beaten Tennessee, College of Charleston (their only loss), and won at Penn State. Plus, the Owls play 13 of their first 16 away from home. If they come through that stretch with a decent mark, 9 of their last 14 are in the friendly confines. But, even then, they drew both Xavier and Dayton on the road this season. The Owls will have a number of losses, but if they can win their home games and steal one or two on the road, they will be fine. And, they are the frontrunner for the Road Warrior Award.

Liberty (4-2). Since being torched by UNC-Asheville on Nov 18, the Flames are 4-1 with wins at Virginia as well as CAA brethren William &Mary and George Mason. They have Stephen Curry's younger brother, Seth, on the roster and he's been lighting it up. Winthrop is down, and it looks like VMI and Liberty are the class of the Big South early on.

Hofstra (7-1). The Pride is back! Long Island's best lost their first game to Clemson and have since reeled off seven straight including 5 wins away from home.

Cleveland State (6-4). The Vikings are Temple lite regarding their schedule. Their losses are at Washington, at West Virginia, and home to Butler and Kansas State. They have beaten Syracuse. They are being forged in the fire and will be a tough out in the Horizon.

Niagara (7-2). While Siena gets the MAAC TV time, the Eagles have been winning tough roadies at Buffalo and at South Florida. Their losses are to Villanova and Akron, who are a combined 15-4.

Miami (OH) (6-3). Not an overpowering record, but the three losses are to UCLA, Pitt, and Xavier. Nine of their first 12 are away from home. How's that for scheduling? They do have that win over Temple in hand and they are at West Virginia on Saturday.

Illinois State (10-0). Unblemished, but no big wins.

Evansville (5-1). The Aces completely destroyed TBB's team, WKU, last weekend. UTTERLY. Their only loss was at Butler. You may have heard that they are at North Carolina on Saturday.

BYU (10-0). The only team to beat Utah State so far, but no monster wins.

Jacksonville State (5-1). Hottest team in the OVC has won at UMass and destroyed VMI.

College of Charleston (6-1). Lost a close one to Temple, but has beaten TCU and South Carolina. Could be Davidson's strongest challenger in the SoCon.

Last Night's GOI

--St. Mary's 78, at Oregon 73. Not a great win, but a game the Gaels needed to maintain realistic at-large hopes.

-- at Pitt 79, Siena 66. Saints continue in their quest for a signature win.

--at VCU 73, Akron 69. In addition to Hofstra, VCU looks like a CAA contender.

Tonight's GOI

--Evansville at North Carolina. Aces with a BIG chance to show that they are for real. Heck, even losing by 20 might prove that against the Heels.

--WKU at South Alabama. These two plus Middle Tennessee figure to contend for Sun Belt East Division crown. This will provide a head start in positioning for one of these two.

Not Time to Open Lockbox

I got ahead of myself yesterday and posted tonight's GOI a day early. That's what you get for blogging at 5 am, I guess.

Still too early for Lockbox or brackets or anything of the like. Hang in there over the holidays and then the serious debate will begin about the time conference season begins.

Tonight's GOI
--St. Mary's at Oregon. If the Ducks don't right the ship soon, their NCAA campaign is going to be over before the Pac-10 even starts.
--Siena at Pitt. Saints have lots of chances against Big 6-types, and I'll bet they win one. But, probably not this one.
--Akron at VCU. Two consistently solid mids.

GOI 12/16

Last Night's GOI
--Cleveland State 72, Syracuse 69. 60-foot shocker, yes. Shocking upset? Not really. CSU lost to Butler on a last second three last week. The Vikings will likely be around all season in the Horizon.
--at UL-Lafayette 86, UL-Monroe 58. Could be another LONG year for the 'Hawks in the Belt.

Tonight's GOI
--St. Mary's at Oregon. If the Ducks don't right the ship soon, their NCAA campaign is going to be over before the Pac-10 even starts.
--Siena at Pitt. Saints have lots of chances against Big 6-types, and I'll bet they win one. But, probably not this one.
--Akron at VCU. Two consistently solid mids.
--

Increase In Activity

I must have grades posted by noon tomorrow, so activity will pick up considerably here this week.

At some point in the next few days, we will have our first Lockbox action in the form of a "pre-Lockbox." That is, while there are no LOCK teams yet, there are a number of teams that are fairly safe to pencil into your bracket (the UNC's of the world) and doing so gives us an idea of how many at-large slots are truly up for grabs. It also allows us to look at what teams have accomplished, who is on the right track, and who may be paper tigers.

More tomorrow.

Tonight's GOI
--UL-Monroe at UL-Lafayette. Belt games are beginning to trickle.

Weekend Forecast 12/12-14

TBB will have to beg off a thorough Weekend Forecast this week (just this once) due to a mountain of grading to be done.

Saturday
--Xavier at Cincinnati. Crosstown shootout rarely disappoints.
--West Virginia at Duquesne. Just have a feeling about this one.
--Western Kentucky at Evansville. Two hot mids renew a long rivalry.
--Memphis at Georgetown. Lots of big, strong youngsters in this one.
--Indiana at Kentucky. Lots of great memories for me in this long series.
--Tennessee at Temple. Good road test vs a solid team for the Vols. Good opportunity for Owls to get a signature win.
Sunday
--Gonzaga at Arizona. Zags should win, but the road is a fickle mistress.
--SIU at Nevada. Two perennial powerhouse mids both under .500 at the moment.
--Oklahoma State at TAMU-CC. Big @ little.



Last Night's GOI
--at Middle Tennessee 81, Troy 53. Sun Belt faves played like it vs a weaker team.
--at Villanova 59, Saint Joseph's 56. Nova pulled one out of the fire, but I bet we will hear from the Hawks in A10 action.

Tonight's GOI
--Iowa State at Iowa. Corn-tastic in-state rivalry.

GOI 12/11

Tonight's GOI
--Troy at Middle Tennessee. Sun Belt slate kicks off tonight!
--Saint Joseph's at Villanova. Mmm...Philly goodness.

Last Night's GOI
--Butler 87, at Bradley 75. Bulldogs not accustomed to scoring this much, but they still had more than the Braves.
--at BYU 94, Boise State 56. WOW. Cougars do not have a big win yet, but they are blemish-free and playing strong.
--at Colorado 75, Colorado State 56. No one like a blowout rivary game...unless you are the rival team on the good end of the score.
--at Creighton 77, Dayton 59. Notice to Valley: your favorite to win it is back after a less-than-Creightonish start t the season.
--Northeastern 76, at Harvard 71 (2OT). Had a feeling this was going to be a good one, hence it's presence on the GOI.
--Cal 72, at Utah 69. Bears get the medicine, Utes have now dropped two straight.
--Gonzaga 74, at Washington State 52. Not expected, but maybe we should start expecting things like this from this Zags team.

Last Night's GOI
--Purdue 68, at Ball State 39. The Boilers remind me of those "Messin' with Sasquatch" commercials. Since the loss to Duke, Sasquatch, thy name is Purdue. It's been all beef jerky and tearing limbs from their sockets since then.
--Davidson 68, West Virginia 55. Cats win without Curry playing a monster game (by his standards).
--at Georgia 67, Virginia Tech 66. Nice win for UGA, despite going 10-21 at the line on the home court!
--Drake 66, at Iowa State 63. Drake was down 10 with 8 mins to play. They held ISU to one basket over that span. Drake never led until the score was 64-62. Jared Cox went for 14/14 for the Bulldogs. In other words, the Cyclones feel like total crap today.
--Texas 67, Villanova 58. Horns collect another quality, non-conference win.
Tonight's GOI
--Butler at Bradley. Good road test for the undefeated Bulldogs.
--Boise State at BYU. Combined 13-1.
--Colorado State at Colorado. A couple of Big State U's in a rivalry game.
--Dayton at Creighton. So don't be hatin', this will be a good one, I'm statin'.
--Northeastern at Harvard. These two have looked solid early and both will likely be a factor in their conference races.
--Cal at Utah. These two raced out of the gate only to find disaster in their last outings. Cal was obliterated at Mizzou by 27, while Utah, after beating Ole Miss, Missouri State, and Oregon, lost at formerly WINLESS Idaho State.
--Gonzaga at Washington State. Excellent in-state tussle.

GOI

Not much time today, but I'll at least give you the tube times for these games.


Tonight's GOI
--Purdue at Ball State. In-state rivalry game at the "smaller" school's gym and it's Purdue's first true road game.
--West Virginia vs Davidson (7 pm ESPN). Excellent neutral court match up between two teams who need quality non-conference scalps.
--Virginia Tech at Georgia (7pm FSN). Neither has beaten a really good team yet. VT's win over Fairfield is probably the best of the two combined.
--Drake at Iowa State (9 pm ESPNU). In-state rivalry alert! Neither has a big win.
--Texas vs Villanova (9 ESPN). The two are a combined 14-1.

On Marathons

I finished the Memphis Marathon in 2.58.48 on Saturday. As I was running, at some point I realized that 26.2 miles is close to 28-29 games most college hoops teams play in a season. So, if the season is truly "not a sprint, it's a marathon," we are at about Mile 7 or so in this season. Long way to go, but enough to see where a lot of runners/teams are going to finish. More on that this week as time permits...which brings to me this news item: it's finals week at WKU, so I will have a mountain of grading to do. I am not sure what this blog will look like this week, but I'll at least try to maintain the GOI.

That said, not much vital action tonight.

Weekend Forecast 12/5-7

Some wonderful hoops this weekend, and I will spend it under a blanket of ice. Not due to any Kentucky snowstorms, but due to my running of the Memphis marathon tomorrow. Lots of fun, pain, recovery foods, and bags of ice/frozen peas on my joints on tap for me this weekend. But, that also means lots of hoops to watch.

Last Night's GOI
--UConn 68, at Buffalo 64. It was NOT easy. I like these kinds of games. It helps the nation pause before they criticize good teams from non-Big 6 conferences for losing conference road games. It's not easy to win on the road--ANYWHERE.
--Butler 50, at Cleveland State 48. Caught the 2nd half of this fantastic game. The Vikings led throughout, but a couple of late threes (including one as the buzzer sounded!) pulled this one out of the fire. Dogs get a BIG leg up in the Horizon race with a road win at a contender's place.
--Murray State 58, at Eastern Kentucky 50. Anther big conference road win among conference contenders.
--at Oklahoma 73, Southern Cal 72. Not even a punch to the man tackle could stop Blake Griffin and the Sooners.
--at Texas 68, UCLA 64. These two will be around all season for your enjoyment. These should be two very complete basketball teams by season's end. As usual.

Weekend Forecast
Tonight
--Arizona at Texas A&M. Neither has been terribly impressive to this point.
Saturday
--Dayton at Akron. Flyers are probably better, but there's that whole road thing again.
--Utah State at BYU. Combined 11-0.
--UAB at Cincinnati. One of those "It's early, but it feels like it means something" games.
--NC State at Davidson. Big State U on an in-state "mid-major's" home court. And a Wolf Pack win would be a MAJOR upset.
--Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech. One will bounce back from a baffling loss (Vandy to Illinois-Chicago at home and GA Tech to Penn State at home).
--Gonzaga vs Indiana. At some point, the Hoosiers will have that "we're still IU" game. Zags should be careful even though they are a much better basketball team.
--Miami (FL) at Kentucky. Cats have looked better lately, so this is a big test for the Canes after being tripped up by Ohio State at home.
--Wisconsin at Marquette. Always a special in-state game. Make sure you read Chris West's take after the game.
--Duke at Michigan. Round 2: Duke won round one in the 2k Sports Classic on Nov 21. Huge opportunity at home for the Wolverines to get that signature win for their resume.
--Murray State at Morehead State. Yes, I know Murray is good. Yes, I know Morehead is 1-6. But the Eagles should be OK this year and they have yet to play a home game. Keep an eye on this one.
--DePaul at Northwestern. A Chi-town brawl and it actually matters! Both have just one loss to date. The winner can wear the label of "NCAA hopeful."
--Rhode Island at Providence. In-state rivalry alert!
--Creighton at Saint Joseph's. Both need it pretty badly.
--Albany at Siena. One of America East's best vs One of the MAAC's best.
--Western Kentucky at Tulane. WKU is quietly building a resume. This is the first of three dangerous road games (at Evansville and at South Alabama follow).
--Baylor at Washington State. Another game that feels meaningful in future Bubbledom.
Sunday
--Nebraska at Arizona State. Combined 11-1 so far.
--Florida at Florida State. In-state rivalry alert! Combined 13-2 to date.
--Maryland at George Washington. Regional rivalry with ACC at A14. Colonials are 3-1.
--Oklahoma at Tulsa. In-state rivalry alert!
--NCCU vs UT-Pan American. Combined 0-12. SOMEBODY will get their first win!

Bizarro Belt

The UALR Trojans, who were 5-0 with two true road wins and a win over Creighton, spent last night throwing an orange ball at a hoop to no avail whatsoever. They went into Missouri State probably expecting to fight to the death in a tough game and instead were plowed into the ground to the tune of 59-37. I was hoping that this UALR team was different, but this is reminiscent of past Trojan teams: big, tough, thick athletes who play very hard, but lack shooting skill. Hopefully, there will be less games like this than most years, though.

On the other hand, hapless New Orleans (who has losses to Nicholls State and Savannah State) walloped CUSA member and crosstown rival Tulane 49-39 last night. Hopefully, that did not cheese off the Green Wave too badly, as WKU gets them next on Saturday in Nawlins.

North Texas also nipped Sam Houston by 2.

Last Night's GOI
--Miami (OH) 68, at Temple 52. Beating the Owls by 16 in Philly takes some doing. RedHawks have played a murderer's row all on the road to this point and have managed a 3-3 record (losses to UCLA, Pitt, Xavier). This win over Temple sets them up for a three game home stand.
--at Maryland 75, Michigan 70. Both feel Bubbly early in the season, so this one was important.
--Illinois-Chicago 74, at Vanderbilt 55. Memorial Magic? The Flames took the wands and snapped them like twigs, drank poison and spit it in the face of Kevin Stallings, then turned a pumpkin into a chariot and smashed it at center court. Probably the "Wha...?" score of the night. UIC is 4-2 with close losses to DePaul and Bradley, though, so keep an eye on them in the Horizon.
--West Virginia 80, at Mississippi 78. Another game that might seem important come Sweaty Selection Sunday time.
--at Utah 95, Oregon 81. Utah lost their first game to a DII team...and have simply dropped the hammer on every opponent since including Mississippi, at Missouri State, and now the Ducks. They are 5-0 and rolling.
--North Carolina 98, Michigan State 63. The Tar Heels are good at playing basketball. Seriously, they are making some pretty decent teams look like garbage.
--at Northwestern 73, Florida State 59. Wildcats are now 5-1 with only a narrow loss at Butler.

Tonight's GOI
--UConn at Buffalo. Huskies take a true roadie at...Buffalo? Interesting.
--Butler at Cleveland State. Oh, yeah! A conference game that means something!
--Murray State at Eastern Kentucky. And another! Two of the better teams in the OVC.
--Southern Cal at Oklahoma. Trojans could use a solid win, but I'm betting it's not happening here.
--UCLA at Texas. If you like rough-and-tumble muscular college guys from two of America's finest institutions...or defense, this game is for you.

Tops Consolidate UL Win, Beat Georgia 67-63

Now no one can call the WKU win over Louisville a fluke.

Off of just two days rest, WKU again rose to the challenge of a bigger, stronger BCS team and defended their home court, outlasting the Georgia Bulldogs 67-63. This one is deserving of a game log.

PREGAME
There were at least 500 students snaked around the front of Diddle arena in the breezy, cold night waiting to get inside and cheer for this Card-killing Topper club. My spirits rose, knowing that it was going to be loud and proud all night long. And it was.

FIRST HALF
9:52--It was a carbon copy of pretty much every game in this series. WKU came out hyped and tight and the shots were not falling. UGA built a slim 15-12 in the slugfest.

1.50--Much like ancient wars of olden times, each side picked its fiercest warrior to do battle mano a mano. UGA's Terrance Woodbury and WKU's AJ Slaughter dressed in chain mail and armed themselves with fine implements of war and met at midcourt to settle this siege. Slaughter went with the net and trident, while Woodbury chose a longsword of fine steel. In this six minute fight, Slaughter tallied 12 points (including a 4-pt play), but was edged by Woodbury's 13. Amazing stretch by both.

What resulted was a 3-pt bulldog lead at the half (38-35) and the Toppers vowing, "You may have won this battle, Woodbury, but the war is not over." Or insert your favorite movie "revenge line" here.

2nd Half
14:38--The Toppers came out with a blowtorch and opened the half on a 13-5 run built by cranking the defensive intensity up to 11. Steffphon Pettigrew capped the run with a 3...one of his 2 FG in 15 attempts. Not a typo...not a good shooting night for Grew.

5:25--From the 11.30 mark, the teams scored 5 points COMBINED with ZERO field goals. Five points in 6 mins...that's TWO teams. Oy.

4:46--With a 7-point lead and a chance to start driving some nails in the coffin, Topper F Jeremy Evans missed the front end of a 1-and-1. But wait! Pettigrew grabbed the offensive board and kicked it out to senior G Orlando Mendez-Valdez...who inexplicably launched an inexplicable ill-advised inexplicable three. UGA grabbed the carom, and scored four straight and forced a 30-second timeout.

0.00--However, the WKU defense clamped down again, and the Toppers cashed in their free throws down the stretch.

The crowd and atmosphere was electric in a packed Diddle Arena. Georgia put up a valiant effort, but WKU was able to come off their taxing win vs Louisville and two days later beat a big, brawny, tough bunch of Bulldogs. The young Dawgs will need solid PG play and to contend in the SEC, but they have enough quality bigs to be pretty good if the perimeter is decent.

The Tops are riding very high after dispatching SIU, Louisville, and Georgia in the last six days. They will now try to take their defensive show on the road at Tulane on Saturday.

Last Night's GOI
--Saint Joseph's 77, at Lehigh 64. Hawks over Mountain Hawks.
--Houston 70, at Middle Tennessee 67. Raiders fail to capitalize at home against both Tennessee and Houston.
--at SIU 64, Saint Louis 48. Salukis restore a bit of order after a 1-3 start.
--at WKU 67, Georgia 63. See above.

Watch List 1

OK, we know some teams are VERY good right now and will likely be good the whole winter long. There is no need to sing the praises of teams like North Carolina, Duke, UConn, Oklahoma, Texas, Pitt, and a few others. No, the focus here is on clubs that are not getting tons of buzz but have accomplished more than most everyone else in November.

This is not an exhaustive list, just some teams that deserve watching.

Illinois State (7-0). They have four wins away from home including true road W's at Wright State and SMU.

Utah (4-0). Beat Ole Miss on a neutral court and won at Missouri State.

Jacksonville State (3-1). Lost at South Carolina in game #1, but have won three straight including wins at Georgia State, at UMass, and a neutral win over VMI by 28.

Florida State (7-0). Neutral court wins over Cincinnati and Cal.

College of Charleston (4-1). Lost a close one to Temple, but has beaten TCU and South Carolina.

Lamar (3-0). Only team with a winning record so far in the Southland and they are spot-free with wins at UL-Lafayette and at Rice.

UALR (5-0). Two true road wins over Cal Poly and Pepperdine, plus impressive home win over Creighton.

Tonight's GOI
--Saint Joseph's at Lehigh. Hawks v. Mountain Hawks. Hawks should beware: Mountain Hawks are 5-1.
--Houston at Middle Tennessee. The Belt fave has a good shot to score a nice win at home.
--Saint Louis at SIU. Both are 1-3 and need a cure for their ills.
--Georgia at WKU. Tops with a chance to back up that big Louisville win with another BCS takedown.Big Televen/ACC Challenge. Check your listings. Duke at Purdue is probably the cream of tonight's slate.

Toppers Outwork Cards

Once in awhile, as a "mid-major" fan, you get those moments of pure joy that feel like God's justice. Some Big State U. that normally avoids playing your school waits until your school's ranks are ravaged by graduation and the entire coaching staff jumps ship after a successful run to coach at a BCS school, and THEN Big State U. wants to schedule a four-game series with your guys that includes one "neutral" game, two road games, and one game at your gym (that will likely be put off, wrangled over, and eventually bought out and serving only to seriously cheese off the entire fanbase). Sorry for the length of he previous sentence, but you have to read it while imagining me ranting, red-faced, and refusing to take a breath.

Sunday's game between Louisville and WKU was such a case. The Louisville Cardinals, they of Big East title and Final Four Contendership, squared off with WKU, who lost 75% of it's scoring and all of its coaches from its magical Sweet 16 team in 2008, for the first of four meetings as laid out above. But, the Toppers worked over the bigger Cards with stifling defense and relentless pursuit on the glass (WKU +14!). What was left in the Topper wake of activity was 26% shooting for UL and a bumfuzzled Rick Pitino mumbling about a bad week of practice. Of course, if you watched the game, it was not hard to understand why UL lost: they let their poor jumpshooters jack up scud missiles instead of pounding the ball into either of their TWO future NBA power forwards. What resulted was a 14-point beatdown of justice of UL by the Tops.

Even more staggering is that eight days ago, this Topper team was doing some grave soul-searching after being annihilated by 28 points at Murray State. Since then, the Tops have dispatched SIU (on Wed) and now Louisville in the early buds of this "rebuilding year." They are also crafting a serious defense/rebounding identity. Well, at least I should give UL a little credit for scheduling the series in the first place, even if they waited until we were "down."

WKU next hosts Georgia on Tuesday.

Tomorrow, we will take a look at which teams have laid solid foundations for their March resumes.

Tonight's GOI
--Wisconsin at Virginia Tech. ACC/Big Televen challenge gets cranked up with a couple of teams who could use a solid "w."

Southern Illinois at WKU

This was supposed to be a marquee match up of a couple of the highest profile non-BCS schools in Hoopdom. Instead, what we have are two clubs with a combined 1-4 record and both in desperate need of a win. SIU was pounded by Duke (by 25) and UCLA (by 17). It's worse for WKU, who played a great first half at Houston before being thrashed in the second frame and then backing that up with a 28-point shellacking at Murray State. And, while the Racers are pretty good, they are not Duke or UCLA.

All Topper fans expected a big dip this season after last year's banner run to the Sweet 16 and the subsequent losses of most of their scoring, minutes and entire coaching staff. But, the offense is truly offensive and the defense was matador-esque at Murray. Both teams are doing a big of soul-searching, but make no mistake, WKU needs it more. This is a home game after all.

TBB will be in full holiday travel mode the rest of the week and will return on Monday.

Tonight's GOI
--North Carolina vs Notre Dame. UNC hasn't been truly pushed yet. They might be in this one.
--Texas vs Oregon. People like to THINK that Oregon matters on a national level, but most years, they don't.
--UAB vs Oklahoma. Blazers are 4-0 and have not played a home game yet. Sooners have yet to play away from Norman. Something's a-brewin'.
--Boston College vs Purdue. Boilers first chance for a competitive game.

Last Night's GOI
--Mississippi State 76, at St. Bonaventure 71. The Bonnies lose a tight one at home.
--at UALR 71, Creighton 69. Few are paying attention to the Trojans, but peolpe will come around eventually. They are now 4-0 with road wins over Cal Poly and Pepperdine and home triumphs over LA Tech and Creighton.
--Syracuse 89, Kansas 81 (OT). Orange are on their way.
--Notre Dame 81, Texas 80. Tremendous game...these two will likely be around all season.

Big night for the Belt, as the league went 5-1 in DI games, raising its overall record to 21-25.

Feast of Exemptions

There are more exempt tournies, challenges, and classics than you can shake a (drum)stick at over the long Thanksgiving weekend. Here's a list o' links of brackets and schedules to help you keep all of them straight as you overeat, fall asleep to football, and awkwardly attempt conversation with estranged and obscure uncles, cousins, in-laws, and future/potential in-laws over the next few days.

Nov 24-26: Maui Invitational
Nov 25: CBE Championship
Nov 26, 28: NIT Tipoff
Nov 26-29: Great Alaska Shootout
Nov 27-30: 76 Classic (Anaheim, CA)
Nov 27-30: Old Spice Classic
Nov 28-29: Las Vegas Invitational
Nov 28-29: Legends Classic "Championship" Rounds
Nov 28-29: Philly Classic
Nov 29-30: Cancun Challenge

Tonight's GOI

--Mississippi State at St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have not been good for a long while. But, they are 3-1 and just nipped Rutgers at the RAC on the weekend.

--Creighton at UALR. HUGE change for the Trojans to score a big one. Both teams are 3-0.
Sun Belt Slate
Georgia St at Troy
Stephen F. Austin at UL Monroe
Florida Atlantic vs James Madison
Oral Roberts at UL Lafayette
Arkansas St at UT Martin
Creighton at UA Little Rock

Last Night's GOI

--Syracuse 89, Florida 83. Orange get a nice resume builder.

--Notre Dame 88, Indiana 50. I don't care what has happened at IU, they never expect to lose by 38 to ND.

--UConn 76, Wisconsin 57. Get used to the "Big East is better than the NBA" hyperbole. They are backing it up.

Sun Belt Slate

--at Davidson 76, Florida Atlantic 60. They held Curry to 39.

--at Vanderbilt 65, Middle Tennessee 57. MT dug a 25-11 first half hole and couldn't get out, even after closing the lead to 6 with 11 mins to go.

--at Florida International 50, Toledo 46. Panthers hold serve at home..

GOI 11/24

Tonight's GOI
Florida vs Syracuse. Two clubs expecting a little number next to their name in March.
Indiana vs Notre Dame. In state rivalry...game played in Hawai'i.
Wisconsin vs UConn. Anyone want to guess how the Badgers season will go? Underestimated in the pre- and early season, big success in the regular season, good seed in the Tourney, early-than-expected exit in the Dance. Maybe it will be different this year.

Sun Belt Slate
Florida Atlantic at Davidson. Lambs, Owls actually, to the slaughter.
Middle Tennessee at Vanderbilt. Let me go ahead and call the "upset" in this one.
Toledo at Florida International. Belt needs these winnable home games.

Weekend Forecast 11/21-11/23

Since this is the "Bracket Board" and all, how about some brackets for the early season tourneys and invitationals that are starting up/underway?

Nov 20-22: Basketball Travelers Invitational
Nov 20-23: Puerto Rico Shootout
Nov 21-24: Paradise Jam

Last Night's GOI
--Duke 83, Southern Illinois 58. It was close for 30 minutes...
--Michigan 55, UCLA 52. Huge win for Beilein and the Wolverines. His system works. Period.
--at Oklahoma State 91, Tulsa 73. Cowboys roll in this OK match up.
--North Texas 76, at Sam Houston 71. Good road win for the Mean Green and for the Belt.
--Iowa 70, at The Citadel 48. Too big a gap between these two for the home court to help much.
--McNeese State 82, at UL-Monroe 63. Jarringly bad loss for the Belt.
--at Washington 74, FIU 51. Expected.
--Centenary 81, Troy 77. Troy looks to be going NOWHERE with its hoops program since moving to the Belt.

Weekend Forecast
Tonight
--Michigan vs Duke. For the 2k Classic title.
--UCLA vs Southern Illinois. Score should rocket into the high 30s.
--Notre Dame at Loyola Marymount. Interesting roadie for ND.
--North Carolina at UC-Santa Barbara. Ditto.
--Oregon at UC-Irvine. And again. Some high-profile Big Sixers doing some interesting traveling.
Saturday
--Georgia Tech at Mercer. We're tracking the SEC-killing Bears.
--UAB at Old Dominion. It's hard to tell which games will matter a lot at this point, but this one feels important.
--VCU at Rhode Island. Same for this one.

Sun Belt Slate
Tonight
--Alcorn St vs Troy
--Tennessee at Middle Tennessee. WHOA! It simply does not get any bigger than this for Belt teams.
Saturday
--UL Lafayette at Utah Valley
--UMKC at Florida Atlantic
--Denver at Lamar
--Florida A&M vs South Alabama
--Western Kentucky at Murray St. Olde tyme rivals square off in a (likely) sold out RSEC.
--Miss Valley St at Arkansas St
--Louisiana Tech at UA Little Rock
New Orleans at Savannah St
Sunday
North Texas at Indiana St

Bear Market

Here is an early developing story line to watch out of the mighty A-Sun: the Mercer Bears are 2-0 with road wins at SEC brethren Alabama and Auburn. Now, we're not talking about Tennessee and Florida here, but this merits watching. Even more intriguing is the fact that Mercer was considered an Atlantic Sun bottom-dweller coming into the season. The Bears get Georgia Tech in Macon on Saturday and are at Dayton next week, so the stiff tests and opportunities for big wins will continue. And, it's a good thing that they like this road game stuff, because they play SEVEN roadies in a row from Dec 17 to Jan 11.

The Sun Belt split its games last night, as Arkansas State took care of Murray State (the OVC favorite) in Jonesboro, 55-47, while New Orleans was thrashed by 17 on the road at Nicholls State. That brings the Belt's non-conference tally to 10-13.

Last Night's GOI
-- at Arkansas State 55, Murray State 47. John Brady gets his first DI win at ASU.
--Mercer 78, at Auburn 74. See above.
--Michigan State 70, at IPFW 59. Sparty survives his road trip into non-BCS country.

Tonight's GOI
--Southern Illinois vs Duke. Devils will face some fierce half-court D.
--UCLA vs Michigan. A good barometer for Beilein Year 2 at Michigan.
--Tulsa at Oklahoma State. In-state rivalry alert! Always worth tracking.
--North Texas at Sam Houston. Battle of two Texas clubs that have been solid in recent seasons.
--Iowa at The Citadel. A Big Six team on the road against true little guy.
--McNeese State at UL-Monroe. Belt must win these type of games. Must.
--FIU at Washington. Tough deal for the Panthers here, but Huskies have already lost to Portland.
--Troy vs Centenary. Another one that the Belt must have to move up the conference charts.
Puerto Rico Shootout
--Four games, including Southern Cal vs Seton Hall and Missouri vs Xavier.

Games of Import 11/19

Last Night's GOI
--at Mississippi 89, South Alabama 71. Team USA takes it on the chin...not unexpectedly at Ole Miss.
--Florida State 65, at LaSalle 61. Thought an upset might be in the offing here, but alas, no.
--at North Carolina 77, Kentucky 58. Even sans-Hansbrough, the Heels were far superior.
--UAB 72, at Arizona 71. Blazers play SIX games in a row away from home to start the season. They are currently 3-0. That makes them a team to watch as a potential at-large down the road.
--at Oklahoma 82, Davidson 78. Curry's 44 still was not enough as both he and Blake Griffin lived up to billing.
--at Portland State 81, Portland 76. Vikings with the Rose City Classic. I attended a conference at Portland State once, so I have a soft spot for the Vikes. They were great hosts and their school is a great center of learning and of service to the city of Portland.
--Lamar 78, at UL-Lafayette 68. Come on, Cajuns! We (the Belt) feel your pain when you lose!
FAU 65, at Santa Clara 61. On the other hand, Mike Jarvis' Owls (2-1) bear watching.

Tonight's GOI
--Murray State at Arkansas State. Of great local interest, due to Murray being a regional rival and ASU being a Sun Belt member.
--Mercer at Auburn. Bears have already taken down Alabama.
--Michigan State at IPFW. Big Six takes a roadie to Summit country!

Games of Import 11/18

Tonight's GOI
--South Alabama at Mississippi. Down south brawl that will test one of the Belt's best and most consistent teams.
--Florida State at LaSalle. A Big Sixer steps up for a true roadie against a non-Big Sixer.
--Kentucky at North Carolina. UK lost to VMI, but they usually show up for the big ones. They had better come switched on for this one.
--UAB at Arizona. Blazers are already 2-0 with two wins away from home.
--Davidson at Oklahoma. Maybe the best game of the season so far.
--Portland at Portland State. Crosstown battle, and the Pilots are puffed up after a win over Big State U., Washington.
--Lamar at UL-Lafayette. One of those "must win at home" games for ULL and the Belt.
--FAU at Santa Clara. Belt team in a neutral court game.

Sun Belt record to date: 8-10

Weekend Recap

Gotta be quick today.

How did the Big Six do on the road vs non-Big Six teams?
Friday
--at Howard 47, Oregon State 45.
--Stanford 75, at Yale 57.
Saturday
--Florida State 59, at Jacksonville 57.
--NC State 65, at New Orleans 59.
--at Portland 80, Washington 74.

2-3 for the non-Big Sixers. Not a winning record, but not a bad showing.

In other news, the Belt went a respectable 7-6 in DI games, including two road wins on the West coast by UALR (over Cal Poly and Pepperdine).

Weekend Forecast 11/14-11/16

Kentucky is looking for it's first snow of the season this weekend. Further, I have drawn some amazingly good weather of late on my Saturday long runs in preparation for the St. Jude Marathon (Memphis, TN) on December 6. It looks like Mother Nature is cashing in some of her kindness with a blast of arctic air and stiff winds for my 23-miler tomorrow.

But, after basketball's long winter of summer (that makes sense, right?), folks are crowding around the old wood stove to thaw in the cozy warmth of our first full slate of hoops since last March. There are a lot of lump-of-coal payday games on tap, but there are a few glowing embers as well.

First, this blog cares about the Sun Belt. Most of you don't--I get it. But, consider this non-conference season a case study in the life of non-power conference. There are some interesting story lines to follow.

SUN BELT SLATE
Friday
--UALR at Cal Poly. Cal Poly looks to be down. UALR should be decent-to-good. This is the type of road game the Trojans and the Belt need to win.
--Arkansas State at Mississippi. John Brady begins his tenure against a familiar SEC foe.
--Eastern Kentucky at FIU. Golden Panthers have four starters back and coach Sergio Ruoco likes this squad...but, we've seen/heard this before with FIU.
--Monmouth at FAU. The Mike Jarvis era begins at Florida Atlantic.
--Morehead State at UL-Monroe. Warhawks should be better than last year, but Morehead is a big-time sleeper in the OVC this season.
--Alcorn State at South Alabama. Jags should be OK this season if they get any sort of guard play.
Saturday
--Denver at Northern Iowa. Pioneers were horrid on the road last year and they have 8 FR and 3 SO's on the roster.
--NC State at New Orleans. That's right, an ACC school visits a Belt school...and UNO won in the Pack's den last season.
--LA Tech at UL-Lafayette. The Cajuns return four starters and should contend out West.
--UAB at Troy. Huge, huge game for the league. Troy can be a tough place to play. They shoot so many threes that if a team like UAB catches them on a good night, an upset could easily occur.
--WKU at Houston. The Cougars have already lost to GA Southern on a neutral court and WKU lost a ton from last year's Sweet 16 team and the current roster is riddled with injuries. No idea what is going to happen here.
Sunday
--UALR at Pepperdine. The Trojans are pulling a double on this weekend west coast road swing.
--Houston Baptist at Middle Tennessee. The Belt favorites should roll.

Big Six Teams on the Road
Friday
--Oregon State at Howard. Michelle Obama's brother starts his tenure on the road.
--Stanford at Yale. The SAT Score Classic.
Saturday
--Florida State at Jacksonville. In-state battle and a big opportunity for the Dolphins.
--NC State at New Orleans. See above.
--Washington at Portland. Kentucky would NEVER play at WKU, Eastern Kentucky or Murray. EVER. Never, ever.

Other Games
Saturday
--Butler at Drake. Both will likely fall off a bit from last year, but it's still a good match up.
Sunday
--Old Dominon at Charlotte. This is sort of like that UMass/SIU tilt. May not be meaningful, but a win like this early on gives a team hope.
--Winthrop at South Carolina. In state rivalry alert! Eagles are favored to win the Big South AGAIN. Gamecocks have a brand new coaching staff with a lot of players returning.

Egytians Dogs Triumph

SIU gets a leg up on other teams from the fringe conferences hoping to put multiple teams into the bracket. They took care of UMass last night in Carbondale, 80-73. The Minutemen got the Salukis to break from their traditional methodical pace and got this game to 72 possessions. UMass also shot (+11) and made more free throws (+8). They also out-rebounded SIU on the O-glass (+4) and overall (+10). When a team goes on the road and does those things, they have to like their chances.

But, those rabid Egyptian Dogs forced 20 TO's and only committed 10, which allowed them to get up a 12 more shots than UMass. Thus, SIU made 7 more field goals even though the teams shot similar percentages from the floor (47-45%, SIU +2).

Who knows how much a win over UMass is going to be worth, but it's a starting point among NCAA hopefuls.

Tomorrow, we will take a look at the HUGE slate of games coming this opening weekend.

UMass vs SIU

Our first really meaningful game of the year happens tonight in the 2k Sports Classic. These two are no stranger to success, but both missed the NCAA last year. Both lost key components, but both have enough returning talent to expect to contend for spots in the bracket. It's too early to tell a lot about teams, but this is the kind of game that NCAA hopefuls not in Big Six conference need to win if they want to build a solid resume.

For a November 12 game, this one is pretty big.

Embrace the Selection Committee

They are an oft-maligned group. The chair of the men's basketball selection committee takes on that high position knowing that s/he will be skewered and spat upon by Billy Packer, Dick Vitale, and Digger Phelps. They know that there are millions of fans incapable of removing their bias for their school that will screech about being left out, underseeded, or misplaced in the bracket. Tens of thousands more will question their motives and their integrity. Hundreds of us bracketologists will nitpick their every move and spend hours and not a small amount of bandwith trying to read their minds. The hardiest of us are the kind of people who read the selection criteria for fun and occasionally do find legitimate flaws in their work.

But, it is time to admit that in the grand scheme of things, the NCAA Men's Basketball Selection Committee does a pretty good job. This is helped by the fact that the bracket is the fairest, most democratic, and expansive championship in major sports. What makes men's hoops the best championship is that the quibbling occurs about who missed out on a 12-seed and not about who got left out of the title game (welcome, college football fans!). Further, the only way a team with a .500 record gets in is by winning their post-season tournament (welcome, most pro sports fans!).

The committee's job is basically this: pick the most deserving 34 at-large teams to go with the 30 teams who actually won their league tournament and the Ivy League regular season champ. So, in essence, the committee combs through teams that have already been "eliminated" once in the post-season in their conference tourney. That should help folks sleep at night in case their "deserving" team (who could not win their conference tourney) gets left at home.

So, this is my yearly call to read the selection criteria (which is NOT as conspicuous on the NCAA website as it once was) and watch as many games as possible. As much as we like to yell about how our teams get screwed on Selection Sunday (it truly is a Spring rite of passage) the reality is that most years the committee does a good job. I have been doing bracketology for nearly 10 years and we usually disagree on only one or two teams. And, those teams are usually deeply flawed anyway. With the exception of the 2006 stinkeroo, the committee has done a pretty good job at following the selection criteria.

Now, whether the criteria itself is fair or not is another post for another day.

The Ball Is Tipped

There are two games of importance tonight, mainly because they are the first two games of the season. Duke hosts Presbyterian in the 2k Sports Classic, and Georgia Southern will play Houston (future WKU opponent) in the same event.

Later in the week, there are five games in which Big Six teams will go on the road against non-Big 6 teams. Just FYI at this point, but we'll look closer at these in the Weekend Forecast on Friday.

Friday, Nov 14
--Oregon State at Howard
--Stanford at Yale

Saturday, Nov 15
--Florida State at Jacksonville
--NC State at New Orleans
--Washington at Portland

Ready, Set

This is TBB's fifth year of yakking about college hoops and it has pretty much done the same thing for five years: view teams equally regardless of polls, star players, coach, conference, TV exposure, fan base, or any other factors, through the lens of the NCAA Selection Criteria. When surveying the daily hoops landscape for the GOI (Games of Import), a battle for the top seed in the MEAC conference tourney is just as important (nay, moreso, because they only get one bid!) as a titanic match up between ACC powers.

I also do not do "preseason brackets." There are scads of them around and some of them are well-done. But, those are based on paper and fantasy. TBB deals in actual performance and evaluation based on the criteria. It is impossible to do that before any games are played and past performance in previous seasons means zero. So, I cannot do my thing until some games have been played. Hence, there are no brackets here until at least New Year's Day.

What will happen here during the first couple of months is this:
1. Tracking games in which a Big 6-type team goes on the road against non-power conference team. It is rare and interesting.
2. Tracking the Sun Belt. Why would any sane person doe this? Because the geography of this league is high comedy. Because we put TWO teams in the Dance last year. And, well, because I...
3. Follow the WKU Hilltoppers. Coming off a Sweet 16 run and near toppling of UCLA in that round, the Toppers will be a great lesson in what success and its aftermath means at a non-power school. Of course, I follow them no matter what, but it should be interesting for everyone who cares about schools outside the Big 6. Some teams rebuild. Some teams reload. Some teams hire a 30-year old alum in hopes that he will stay for a long time, suffer through some terrible defense watching the young coach figure things out, watch that coach break through to the Sweet 16, and then lose that coach, his entire staff, an NBA wing player, a pro PG, the 4-yr glue guy, other role players, and hire a first-time head coach to start over again.

Should be interesting. First GOI comes on Monday.