Sunday, March 17, 2013

Final Projection, Lockbox, SCKySSiP

Here lies my final bracket. The Ole Miss win today may have cost someone (unless the committee had them in anyway). In both my personal and the SCKySSiP bracket, Ole Miss shaved MTSU off the bottom of the bracket. It will be interesting to see how close MTSU actually was.

The final Lockbox looks like this (see post below). I think four slots could be swapped around a bit and it would not surprise me. That said, I think LaSalle and Boise State "should" be in. That leaves two slots for St. Mary's and Tennessee in my bracket, but if MTSU, Kentucky, Alabama, UMass, or Virginia show up, I will not be terribly stunned (especially MTSU or Kentucky).

Finally, here is the SCKySSiP mock selection committee's final S-curve. This is not a "guess" but rather a replication of the official selection rules (EVERY vote!). Participating in a mock selection is the best way to understand the bracket, and I would encourage (and help) those who would like to do one next year. We voted electronically during the week, and spent 4pm until 11pm last night finishing it up.

So, nothing left to do but lament why the B1G final is so late and then see the actually bracket. Sixty-eight stories will continue on...

Lockbox Update and Today's Plan

The Lockbox has been updated. Read on, as on selection day, the meaning of the color of the teams changes just a bit.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 25 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams are near locks. It is hard to imagine them missing unless the committee goes off the grid.
--I have seven other AL teams listed in blue, which means they could conceivable miss, but I'd be very surprised.
--That means 32 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 5 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

And, those five teams that are truly Bubble to my eye are: LaSalle, Boise State, St. Mary's, Tennessee, and Middle Tennessee in that order. Any of those could miss in favor of Ole Miss, Alabama, Virginia, Kentucky, UMass, or even Southern Miss and I would not be stunned. That is what replicating this process gives you: an understanding that all of these teams at the bottom have deep flaws and their inclusion/exclusion can be justified.

If Ole Miss wins today, MTSU gets the axe. And, honestly, I may take Ole Miss as the very last team over MTSU even if they lose. I'll have to chew on this awhile longer and ponder final seeds a bit more. I'm set on the rest of my field.

 Later today, I'll post the final SCKySSiP results and my final bracket.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Bracket Update 3/15

A new bracket  has been posted.

There has been of jostling in the middle, but no changes in the 1 seeds or IN/OUT of late.

The SCKySSiP has paused to let some of the Bubble teams to play a few games before we vote any more teams in. We are currently sitting on 30 teams and will likely do another road of voting later today.

Finally, the Lockbox has been updated. The Bubble is down to 9 slots. Though still on the Bubble, Iowa State has to feel pretty good now. So, I favored St Mary's, Tennessee, Kentucky, and LaSalle, and left out Middle Tennessee and Virginia on the very edge. Virginia's fate is probably decided today: beat NC State, and they are in pretty good shape. Lose and they'll be a total coin flip. LaSalle is likely in a similar position. Beat Butler, they are likely IN. Lose and they'll sweat alongside MTSU and a few others.

Iowa could get into the conversation with a win over Michigan State. A handful of other teams could make themselves more viable with deep tourney runs (mainly thinking of a few SEC teams and UMass).



Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Lockbox/SCKySSiP Update

TBB's mock selection committee (SCKySSiP) is rolling along. We voted in 26 teams on the first ballot and have the next round of voting underway via email. By day's end, we will probably have 30 or so teams voted IN. I will update fully on this later or early tomorrow. 

The Lockbox has been updated.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 24 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Bracket Update 3/12

A new bracket has been posted.

At the bottom, it seems La Salle, Iowa State, Kentucky, and Tennessee are ahead of Virginia and Middle Tennessee to me eye. There are others still very much alive, of course.

More updates as time allows. We have the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (SCKySSiP, read: "SKISS-ip) rolling now as well. So, lots of Lockbox, SCKySSiP, and bracket updates coming in the days leading up to Selection Sunday.

And, maybe you heard on the Twitters, but "my" WKU Hilltoppers won four games in four days in the Sun Belt tourney for the second year in a row. They are looking like a 15/16 seed at the moment.

Saturday, March 09, 2013

Lockbox Update 3/9

The Lockbox has been updated. A full bracket update comes later tonight or early tomorrow.

What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.

Today, for me, it came down to Iowa State, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky for the last three slots in the bracket. I took those first three and the Cats are out.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have four other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. This is down one slot from Wednesday as California has been moved off the Bubble. If they win their "should" games, the Bears are in. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Bracket Update 3/6

Here is today's updated bracket. There has not been a ton of IN/OUT movement, but seed jostling is plentiful.

Last Four IN: Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, Villanova

First Four OUT: Iowa State, UMass, Maryland, Mississippi

Don't look now, but Providence is 7-1 in their last eight, has swept Villanova, and beat Cincinnati and Notre Dame recently. Their non-conference is a disaster, but a win over UConn in their finale and a little run in the Big East tourney is going to make them an interesting team.

Tuesday, March 05, 2013

Conference Tourneys: ENGAGE!

The Big South and Horizon make it so today. The Big South is pretty relatively "open," with Charleston Southern as the fave. Over in the Horizon, Valparaiso's chalk is pretty bold.

I hope to get an updated bracket up at some point today as well.

Monday, March 04, 2013

Lockbox Update 3/4

The Lockbox has been updated. A full bracket update comes later tonight or early tomorrow.

What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Bracket Update 2/28

Here lies the bracket and I will aim to update weekly if not more often from here on in.

The bottom is always tough, but I find it unusually difficult to sort out the 1-2-3 seeds this time around. There are reasons to downgrade nearly anyone from the 1-2's to a 3. And, any of the 3's are still alive for a 1 seed, I believe.

At any rate, the end of the season will be incredibly meaningful for even the very top of the bracket (as well as the bottom) this year.

Last Four In: Villanova, Kentucky, Boise State, Tennessee

First Four Out: Ole Miss, Virginia, Maryland, Baylor

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Lockbox Update 2/27

The Lockbox has been updated. I believe my first late-to-the-party bracket will go up tomorrow at some point.

What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 20 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss.
--I have six other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Official Conference Tourney Brackets

Conference websites have vastly improved their bracketing skills over the years. I think we have reached a point where building 30 brackets in an Excel workbook for easy clicking may be unnecessary. So, I think this actually is the One Stop Shop this year. Here is a list of links to the official brackets for each conference tourney. Some have yet to be posted and I have indicated as such. But, they are mostly there, mostly nice PDFs, and will be "conference official" brackets.

There still might be some gains from building the OSS, but probably not worth all the tiny timing/date errors and occasional adjustments I will miss putting all of it in. Conference tourneys begin in nine days. Enjoy.



OFFICIAL CONFERENCE TOURNEY BRACKETS


AmericaEast                     March 8-10                  SEFCU Arena                                      Albany, NY

ACC                                 March 14-17                Greensboro Coliseum                      Greensboro, NC

Atlantic Sun                       March 6-9                    Hawkins Arena                                       Macon, GA

Atlantic 10  (no bracket)    March 14-17                Barclays Center                                   Brooklyn, NY

Big East                             March 12-16                Madison Square Garden                    New York, NY

Big Sky   (no bracket)        March 14-16                At Regular Season Champ                                 TBA

Big South                           March 5,7,9-10           The HTC Center                                      Conway, SC

Big Ten                              March 14-17                United Center                                          Chicago, IL

Big 12                                March 13-16                Sprint Center                                          Kansas City

Big West                            March 14-16                Honda Center                                      Anaheim, CA

Colonial                             March 9-11                  Richmond Coliseum                            Richmond, VA

CUSA (no bracket)           March 13-16                BOK Center                                             Tulsa, OK

Horizon League                 March 5,8,12               Campus Sites                                           TBA               

Ivy                              REGULAR SEASON CHAMPION RECEIVES AUTOMATIC NCAA BID

MAC                                March 11, 13-16         Quicken Loans Arena                         Cleveland, OH

MAAC                             March 7-11                  MassMutual Center                           Springfield, MA

MEAC (no bracket)          March 11-16                Norfolk Scope Arena                             Norfolk, VA

Missouri Valley                  March 7-10                  Scottrade Center                                 St. Louis, MO

Mountain West                  March 12-16                Thomas and Mack Center                  Las Vegas, NV

Northeast                          March 6, 9, 12             Campus Sites                                                    TBA

OhioValley                        March 6-9                    Municipal Auditorium                           Nashville, TN

Pac-12                              March 13-16                MGM Grand Garden                         Las Vegas, NV

Patriot League                    March 6, 9, 13             Campus Sites                                                   TBA

Southern Conference          March 8-11                  US Cellular Center                               Asheville, NC

Southeastern                      March 13-17                Bridgestone Arena                               Nashville, TN

Southland                           March 13-16                Merrell Center                                            Katy, TX

Summit League                   March 9-12                  Sioux Falls Arena                                Sioux Falls, SD

Sun Belt                             March 8-11                  Summit Arena                                    Hot Springs, AR

SWAC                               March 13, 15-16         Curtis Culwell Center                               Garland, TX

WAC                                 March 12, 14-16         Orleans Arena                                      Las Vegas, NV

West Coast                        March 6-11                  Orleans Arena                                      Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Lockbox 2/16

It has been a light season over here at the Bracketboard. This stems from my "basketball time budget" being spent on coaching Kindergarteners the basics of the game. It has been a total joy. That said, the weekend bracket building has hit a wall. There will be more time in March, but for now, I will simply do the things that I think add to the giant bracket conversation.

There are loads of good bracket projections out there, so I'll work on more TBB-specific projects. So, here is the first Lockbox of the year. I am basing who is IN/OUT on the Bracket Project's Matrix, which is a consensus of dozens of bracket projections from across  the Web. Time permitting, I will build the One Stop Shop again as well (all 30 conference tourney brackets in one Excel workbook, updated multiple times daily during conference tourney season).

What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 16 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. There are none of those as of today, but there likely will be after this weekend. The black teams could miss in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss.
--I have nine other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.