Thursday, January 21, 2010

Lockbox Update

Via a borrowed computer, here is the first real Lockbox. It is still early, so some major sifting obviously will occur over the next several weeks. To refresh readers and inform the unitiated:

BLACK: LOCK, cannot miss (there are none of those yet)

black: Teams who are well on their way. It would be a surprise if they somehow miss.

blue: OK, but need to win games they "should" (define that how you will).

green: Bubble IN

red: Bubble OUT

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--21 teams are listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would be extremely surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss.
--I have 7 other teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but still have a work to do. Of these 28 black and blue teams, 8 are conference leaders. There are also Bubble-IN leaders in the ACC (Virginia) and Pac-10 (Cal). That means 20 at-large slots appear to be taken at this stage (again, it's early).
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 14 slots right now. This will shrink over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five.

Tonight's GOI
--Florida at Arkansas. If the Gators cannot win this kind of roadie, they drop off the Lockbox entirely.
--Pepperdine at Gonzaga. It's not St. Mary's who is currently tied for first in the WCC, it's the Waves.