Sunday, March 16, 2014

Final Bracket Projection

 Here are all four regions...in ANALOG on a giant yellow poster board. Well, it is analog except that I took digital pics of our work and posted them here! This was a wonderful once-a-week process over the last few weeks with my small children. I think The Bracketboard will be moving more in this direction next year.

Dayton, Xavier, Tennessee, and BYU sneak IN, while Missouri, Arkansas, Minnesota, Southern Miss and Green Bay are just OUT. I would not be surprised if any of those five popped in place of BYU.

Also, if you don't want to squint at the analog version, my S-curve can be viewed here. It's a lot neater and cleaner, but includes no Crayola, poster board, kid scissors, geography lessons, bracket-as-art, or the like.






The Lockbox has been udpated. I see the Bubble at eight, but the two that feel dicey are Tennessee and BYU. Arkansas, Southern Miss, Minnesota, or Green Bay could show up in those last two without much of an eye-bat.

I will post a final Lockbox/Bracket before the Selection Show later today.

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Bracket Update

I mainly work in Lockbox form and it has been updated. But, from here until Sunday, I will post in bracket form as well.

I did not make any IN/OUT changes since yesterday.




Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Lockbox Update 3/11

The Lockbox has been updated. There are technically 12 Bubble spots, but it feels like less.

I really labored between BYU and Providence for the last spot, eventually opting for the Cougars. But, it is essentially a coin flip. Xavier, Tennessee, and Arkansas are the others that are really close to the edge with Dayton, Pitt, and St. Joe's a bit safer.

Beyond that, it seems like it would take some bid-stealing or very poor showings to knock out teams like Nebraska, Stanford, Arizona State or Oklahoma State. If Gonzaga loses, they could fall into that "not totally safe" Bubble mix as well.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--32 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--36 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 22 AL teams are listed as LOCKS or are in blackThe black teams are in great shape and are likely one win away from LOCK.
--I have two other AL teams listed in blue, which means they could conceivably miss, but I'd be very surprised unless they tank badly in the first game of their tourney.
--That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Lockbox 3/11

The Lockbox has been updated. More later today, or tomorrow as I expect to find time for a full update by tomorrow at the latest.

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

Lockbox 3/4

The Lockbox has been updated. The last few in that seem quite borderline were Arkansas, Missouri, and Minnesota any of which could have been replaced with BYU, Providence, or Tennessee with very little hesitation.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--32 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--36 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 20 AL teams are listed as LOCKS or are in blackThe black teams are in great shape and are likely one away from LOCK.
--I have five other AL teams listed in blue, which means they could conceivably miss, but I'd be very surprised unless they tailspin here at the very end.
--That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Monday, March 03, 2014

The Analog Bracket

If you are reading this, you may have noticed the lack of activity over at The Bracket Board this year. I have built projections for fun for 15 years now and, for me, fun and learning about the process lie at the core of bracketeering. But, having a full-time job, wife, two kids, etc., has wonderful, marvelous time costs. And, as much as I like bracketeering, I enjoy interacting with humans on the court and in the stands at games even more. So, a lot of my "hoops time" has been spent coaching 1st Grade basketball in Bowling Green, Kentucky, this year. Time is joyously short for bracketing stuff, and I am grateful for that reality. Few things rival the feeling of watching small children successfully work the pick-and-roll or give-and-go. More broadly, those basic plays allow children the joy of helping someone else be successful. It's a beautiful thing.

When I started this blog, I was hoping to add to the larger conversation and not just toss another projection onto the growing heap of quality ones out there. There were not so many back then, but now there are so many people doing a good job projecting brackets these days, I am not sure what I can add at this point on that level. I still do it when the time is there, but serious brackeeters are only going to disagree about the last few teams IN and some will line up with the committee's thoughts and some will not. I think the Lockbox still adds something a little different from most, so I will keep that updated as we head into selection Sunday. I will still do projections, but I am taking them in a different direction.

That leads me to the images below. As I said above, I coach 1st Grade basketballers, one of which happens to be my son. And, given his love of math and geography, I thought he might like to engage in the bracketeering this year. Boy, howdy. He is learning geography the way God intended: through plotting 351 Division I basketball teams on a map in the preseason, road-tripping to games during the year, and cutting up tiny strips of paper and building this Analog Bracket in March. It is basketball exploding out in colors, shapes, and the inexact lines of the human hand. It is the story and stories of hoops represented by two-inch strips of variously colored card stock (a different color representing each multi-bid conference) on yellow poster board, by Sharpie and Crayola, by scissors and rulers, by being transported back to 1982 (for me). The One-Bid Conferences are written on plain white paper in red ink: our army of White Knights of Hoopdom riding out to battle the Dragons of Power (All of Us, Each of Us #AOUEOU).

So, this is a real projection, but "who's in" has become secondary to "how do we represent it" here at TBB. The digital is great and helpful, but we will do it Analog Style making every effort to see (COLOR!), hear (squeaky markers and kwwwwippp!!!-ing scissors), touch (paper, pen, metal, wood...), smell (Sharpie, coffee, and paper), and taste (post-snow day pancakes lingered on the palate today as we worked) the bracket. The first image is the wide shot, and you can see the enlarged left and right sides below in the subsequent images.

When the projections are over, this will serve as our "fill as you go" bracket on Selection Sunday. The strips of card stock will disappear and the finality of the Blue Sharpie will replace our appropriately confetti-like creation. Because, regardless of who is IN/OUT, it will be a celebration of our sport and of all 351 voices represented by 68 unique and varied stories which will continue to be played out over three tidy weekends.

While I consult KenPom, the RPI, BB State, the Bracket Matrix, and assorted websites for information, the decisions come through the hand of a seven-year-old asking questions on seeding, geography, and the nature of "At Large" teams. Analog style.





Wednesday, February 05, 2014

Lockbox Update 2/5

The Lockbox has been updated. To my eyes, the Bubble looks to be at 10 as of today. It's still more than month until Selection Sunday, so some teams that appear secure could play their way onto the Bubble (thinking here about Minnesota, Xavier, Colorado, Cal, a few others...), but if those teams hold pace, they are likely to get into the bracket. But, while some bold strokes are visible, there are still a lot hoops left.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--32 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--36 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 16 AL teams are listed in black. There are no LOCKS at this stage, though there is a growing list that clearly are going to go dancing. The black teams are in great shape, but it's still early. Some LOCKS are likely to show up next week.
--I have 10 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they could conceivably miss, but I'd be surprised. But, they do have work to do.
--That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. That's down from 12 a week or so ago. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Opening Lockbox

The season's first Lockbox is up. It is somewhat of a work in progress, but we are far enough along to wrestle with the primary question addressed by the Lockbox. Namely, how many spots are truly out there? Or, phrased another way, if I am not sure my team is going to the NCAA tournament, how many slots are really open?

The Bubble by the Numbers
--32 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--36 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 15 AL teams are listed in black. There are no LOCKS at this stage, though there is a short list that clearly are going to go dancing. The black teams are in great shape, but it's still early.
--I have nine other AL teams listed in blue, which means they could conceivable miss, but I'd be very surprised.
--That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Final Projection, Lockbox, SCKySSiP

Here lies my final bracket. The Ole Miss win today may have cost someone (unless the committee had them in anyway). In both my personal and the SCKySSiP bracket, Ole Miss shaved MTSU off the bottom of the bracket. It will be interesting to see how close MTSU actually was.

The final Lockbox looks like this (see post below). I think four slots could be swapped around a bit and it would not surprise me. That said, I think LaSalle and Boise State "should" be in. That leaves two slots for St. Mary's and Tennessee in my bracket, but if MTSU, Kentucky, Alabama, UMass, or Virginia show up, I will not be terribly stunned (especially MTSU or Kentucky).

Finally, here is the SCKySSiP mock selection committee's final S-curve. This is not a "guess" but rather a replication of the official selection rules (EVERY vote!). Participating in a mock selection is the best way to understand the bracket, and I would encourage (and help) those who would like to do one next year. We voted electronically during the week, and spent 4pm until 11pm last night finishing it up.

So, nothing left to do but lament why the B1G final is so late and then see the actually bracket. Sixty-eight stories will continue on...

Lockbox Update and Today's Plan

The Lockbox has been updated. Read on, as on selection day, the meaning of the color of the teams changes just a bit.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 25 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams are near locks. It is hard to imagine them missing unless the committee goes off the grid.
--I have seven other AL teams listed in blue, which means they could conceivable miss, but I'd be very surprised.
--That means 32 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 5 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

And, those five teams that are truly Bubble to my eye are: LaSalle, Boise State, St. Mary's, Tennessee, and Middle Tennessee in that order. Any of those could miss in favor of Ole Miss, Alabama, Virginia, Kentucky, UMass, or even Southern Miss and I would not be stunned. That is what replicating this process gives you: an understanding that all of these teams at the bottom have deep flaws and their inclusion/exclusion can be justified.

If Ole Miss wins today, MTSU gets the axe. And, honestly, I may take Ole Miss as the very last team over MTSU even if they lose. I'll have to chew on this awhile longer and ponder final seeds a bit more. I'm set on the rest of my field.

 Later today, I'll post the final SCKySSiP results and my final bracket.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Bracket Update 3/15

A new bracket  has been posted.

There has been of jostling in the middle, but no changes in the 1 seeds or IN/OUT of late.

The SCKySSiP has paused to let some of the Bubble teams to play a few games before we vote any more teams in. We are currently sitting on 30 teams and will likely do another road of voting later today.

Finally, the Lockbox has been updated. The Bubble is down to 9 slots. Though still on the Bubble, Iowa State has to feel pretty good now. So, I favored St Mary's, Tennessee, Kentucky, and LaSalle, and left out Middle Tennessee and Virginia on the very edge. Virginia's fate is probably decided today: beat NC State, and they are in pretty good shape. Lose and they'll be a total coin flip. LaSalle is likely in a similar position. Beat Butler, they are likely IN. Lose and they'll sweat alongside MTSU and a few others.

Iowa could get into the conversation with a win over Michigan State. A handful of other teams could make themselves more viable with deep tourney runs (mainly thinking of a few SEC teams and UMass).



Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Lockbox/SCKySSiP Update

TBB's mock selection committee (SCKySSiP) is rolling along. We voted in 26 teams on the first ballot and have the next round of voting underway via email. By day's end, we will probably have 30 or so teams voted IN. I will update fully on this later or early tomorrow. 

The Lockbox has been updated.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 24 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Bracket Update 3/12

A new bracket has been posted.

At the bottom, it seems La Salle, Iowa State, Kentucky, and Tennessee are ahead of Virginia and Middle Tennessee to me eye. There are others still very much alive, of course.

More updates as time allows. We have the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (SCKySSiP, read: "SKISS-ip) rolling now as well. So, lots of Lockbox, SCKySSiP, and bracket updates coming in the days leading up to Selection Sunday.

And, maybe you heard on the Twitters, but "my" WKU Hilltoppers won four games in four days in the Sun Belt tourney for the second year in a row. They are looking like a 15/16 seed at the moment.

Saturday, March 09, 2013

Lockbox Update 3/9

The Lockbox has been updated. A full bracket update comes later tonight or early tomorrow.

What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.

Today, for me, it came down to Iowa State, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky for the last three slots in the bracket. I took those first three and the Cats are out.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have four other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. This is down one slot from Wednesday as California has been moved off the Bubble. If they win their "should" games, the Bears are in. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Bracket Update 3/6

Here is today's updated bracket. There has not been a ton of IN/OUT movement, but seed jostling is plentiful.

Last Four IN: Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, Villanova

First Four OUT: Iowa State, UMass, Maryland, Mississippi

Don't look now, but Providence is 7-1 in their last eight, has swept Villanova, and beat Cincinnati and Notre Dame recently. Their non-conference is a disaster, but a win over UConn in their finale and a little run in the Big East tourney is going to make them an interesting team.

Tuesday, March 05, 2013

Conference Tourneys: ENGAGE!

The Big South and Horizon make it so today. The Big South is pretty relatively "open," with Charleston Southern as the fave. Over in the Horizon, Valparaiso's chalk is pretty bold.

I hope to get an updated bracket up at some point today as well.

Monday, March 04, 2013

Lockbox Update 3/4

The Lockbox has been updated. A full bracket update comes later tonight or early tomorrow.

What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Bracket Update 2/28

Here lies the bracket and I will aim to update weekly if not more often from here on in.

The bottom is always tough, but I find it unusually difficult to sort out the 1-2-3 seeds this time around. There are reasons to downgrade nearly anyone from the 1-2's to a 3. And, any of the 3's are still alive for a 1 seed, I believe.

At any rate, the end of the season will be incredibly meaningful for even the very top of the bracket (as well as the bottom) this year.

Last Four In: Villanova, Kentucky, Boise State, Tennessee

First Four Out: Ole Miss, Virginia, Maryland, Baylor

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Lockbox Update 2/27

The Lockbox has been updated. I believe my first late-to-the-party bracket will go up tomorrow at some point.

What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 20 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss.
--I have six other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.