Saturday, March 09, 2013

Lockbox Update 3/9

The Lockbox has been updated. A full bracket update comes later tonight or early tomorrow.

What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.

Today, for me, it came down to Iowa State, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky for the last three slots in the bracket. I took those first three and the Cats are out.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have four other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. This is down one slot from Wednesday as California has been moved off the Bubble. If they win their "should" games, the Bears are in. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.