Here lies my final bracket. The Ole Miss win today may have cost someone (unless the committee had them in anyway). In both my personal and the SCKySSiP bracket, Ole Miss shaved MTSU off the bottom of the bracket. It will be interesting to see how close MTSU actually was.
The final Lockbox looks like this (see post below). I think four slots could be swapped around a bit and it would not surprise me. That said, I think LaSalle and Boise State "should" be in. That leaves two slots for St. Mary's and Tennessee in my bracket, but if MTSU, Kentucky, Alabama, UMass, or Virginia show up, I will not be terribly stunned (especially MTSU or Kentucky).
Finally, here is the SCKySSiP mock selection committee's final S-curve. This is not a "guess" but rather a replication of the official selection rules (EVERY vote!). Participating in a mock selection is the best way to understand the bracket, and I would encourage (and help) those who would like to do one next year. We voted electronically during the week, and spent 4pm until 11pm last night finishing it up.
So, nothing left to do but lament why the B1G final is so late and then see the actually bracket. Sixty-eight stories will continue on...
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Lockbox Update and Today's Plan
The Lockbox has been updated. Read on, as on selection day, the meaning of the color of the teams changes just a bit.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 25 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams are near locks. It is hard to imagine them missing unless the committee goes off the grid.
--I have seven other AL teams listed in blue, which means they could conceivable miss, but I'd be very surprised.
--That means 32 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 5 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
And, those five teams that are truly Bubble to my eye are: LaSalle, Boise State, St. Mary's, Tennessee, and Middle Tennessee in that order. Any of those could miss in favor of Ole Miss, Alabama, Virginia, Kentucky, UMass, or even Southern Miss and I would not be stunned. That is what replicating this process gives you: an understanding that all of these teams at the bottom have deep flaws and their inclusion/exclusion can be justified.
If Ole Miss wins today, MTSU gets the axe. And, honestly, I may take Ole Miss as the very last team over MTSU even if they lose. I'll have to chew on this awhile longer and ponder final seeds a bit more. I'm set on the rest of my field.
Later today, I'll post the final SCKySSiP results and my final bracket.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 25 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams are near locks. It is hard to imagine them missing unless the committee goes off the grid.
--I have seven other AL teams listed in blue, which means they could conceivable miss, but I'd be very surprised.
--That means 32 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 5 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
And, those five teams that are truly Bubble to my eye are: LaSalle, Boise State, St. Mary's, Tennessee, and Middle Tennessee in that order. Any of those could miss in favor of Ole Miss, Alabama, Virginia, Kentucky, UMass, or even Southern Miss and I would not be stunned. That is what replicating this process gives you: an understanding that all of these teams at the bottom have deep flaws and their inclusion/exclusion can be justified.
If Ole Miss wins today, MTSU gets the axe. And, honestly, I may take Ole Miss as the very last team over MTSU even if they lose. I'll have to chew on this awhile longer and ponder final seeds a bit more. I'm set on the rest of my field.
Later today, I'll post the final SCKySSiP results and my final bracket.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Bracket Update 3/15
A new bracket has been posted.
There has been of jostling in the middle, but no changes in the 1 seeds or IN/OUT of late.
The SCKySSiP has paused to let some of the Bubble teams to play a few games before we vote any more teams in. We are currently sitting on 30 teams and will likely do another road of voting later today.
Finally, the Lockbox has been updated. The Bubble is down to 9 slots. Though still on the Bubble, Iowa State has to feel pretty good now. So, I favored St Mary's, Tennessee, Kentucky, and LaSalle, and left out Middle Tennessee and Virginia on the very edge. Virginia's fate is probably decided today: beat NC State, and they are in pretty good shape. Lose and they'll be a total coin flip. LaSalle is likely in a similar position. Beat Butler, they are likely IN. Lose and they'll sweat alongside MTSU and a few others.
Iowa could get into the conversation with a win over Michigan State. A handful of other teams could make themselves more viable with deep tourney runs (mainly thinking of a few SEC teams and UMass).
There has been of jostling in the middle, but no changes in the 1 seeds or IN/OUT of late.
The SCKySSiP has paused to let some of the Bubble teams to play a few games before we vote any more teams in. We are currently sitting on 30 teams and will likely do another road of voting later today.
Finally, the Lockbox has been updated. The Bubble is down to 9 slots. Though still on the Bubble, Iowa State has to feel pretty good now. So, I favored St Mary's, Tennessee, Kentucky, and LaSalle, and left out Middle Tennessee and Virginia on the very edge. Virginia's fate is probably decided today: beat NC State, and they are in pretty good shape. Lose and they'll be a total coin flip. LaSalle is likely in a similar position. Beat Butler, they are likely IN. Lose and they'll sweat alongside MTSU and a few others.
Iowa could get into the conversation with a win over Michigan State. A handful of other teams could make themselves more viable with deep tourney runs (mainly thinking of a few SEC teams and UMass).
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Lockbox/SCKySSiP Update
TBB's mock selection committee (SCKySSiP) is rolling along. We voted in 26 teams on the first ballot and have the next round of voting underway via email. By day's end, we will probably have 30 or so teams voted IN. I will update fully on this later or early tomorrow.
The Lockbox has been updated.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 24 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
The Lockbox has been updated.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 24 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Bracket Update 3/12
A new bracket has been posted.
At the bottom, it seems La Salle, Iowa State, Kentucky, and Tennessee are ahead of Virginia and Middle Tennessee to me eye. There are others still very much alive, of course.
More updates as time allows. We have the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (SCKySSiP, read: "SKISS-ip) rolling now as well. So, lots of Lockbox, SCKySSiP, and bracket updates coming in the days leading up to Selection Sunday.
And, maybe you heard on the Twitters, but "my" WKU Hilltoppers won four games in four days in the Sun Belt tourney for the second year in a row. They are looking like a 15/16 seed at the moment.
At the bottom, it seems La Salle, Iowa State, Kentucky, and Tennessee are ahead of Virginia and Middle Tennessee to me eye. There are others still very much alive, of course.
More updates as time allows. We have the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (SCKySSiP, read: "SKISS-ip) rolling now as well. So, lots of Lockbox, SCKySSiP, and bracket updates coming in the days leading up to Selection Sunday.
And, maybe you heard on the Twitters, but "my" WKU Hilltoppers won four games in four days in the Sun Belt tourney for the second year in a row. They are looking like a 15/16 seed at the moment.
Saturday, March 09, 2013
Lockbox Update 3/9
The Lockbox has been updated. A full bracket update comes later tonight or early tomorrow.
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
Today, for me, it came down to Iowa State, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky for the last three slots in the bracket. I took those first three and the Cats are out.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have four other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. This is down one slot from Wednesday as California has been moved off the Bubble. If they win their "should" games, the Bears are in. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
Today, for me, it came down to Iowa State, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky for the last three slots in the bracket. I took those first three and the Cats are out.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have four other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 27 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10 at the moment. This is down one slot from Wednesday as California has been moved off the Bubble. If they win their "should" games, the Bears are in. The Bubble will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
Wednesday, March 06, 2013
Bracket Update 3/6
Here is today's updated bracket. There has not been a ton of IN/OUT movement, but seed jostling is plentiful.
Last Four IN: Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, Villanova
First Four OUT: Iowa State, UMass, Maryland, Mississippi
Don't look now, but Providence is 7-1 in their last eight, has swept Villanova, and beat Cincinnati and Notre Dame recently. Their non-conference is a disaster, but a win over UConn in their finale and a little run in the Big East tourney is going to make them an interesting team.
Last Four IN: Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, Villanova
First Four OUT: Iowa State, UMass, Maryland, Mississippi
Don't look now, but Providence is 7-1 in their last eight, has swept Villanova, and beat Cincinnati and Notre Dame recently. Their non-conference is a disaster, but a win over UConn in their finale and a little run in the Big East tourney is going to make them an interesting team.
Tuesday, March 05, 2013
Conference Tourneys: ENGAGE!
The Big South and Horizon make it so today. The Big South is pretty relatively "open," with Charleston Southern as the fave. Over in the Horizon, Valparaiso's chalk is pretty bold.
I hope to get an updated bracket up at some point today as well.
I hope to get an updated bracket up at some point today as well.
Monday, March 04, 2013
Lockbox Update 3/4
The Lockbox has been updated. A full bracket update comes later tonight or early tomorrow.
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
What does the Lockbox do? It lists all teams under consideration organized by conference and color-coded by level of security in the bracket (this is the subjective part). Mainly, it gives a picture of how big the Bubble is at any given time.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--Currently, 23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). LOCKS cannot miss, even if they lost out. The black teams could be left out in March, but it would take a monumental meltdown for them to miss at this stage. Most of these will move to LOCKS this week.
--I have three other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but an unexpected loss or two could put them on the Bubble.
--That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.
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