Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Lockbox 2/11

Lockbox is up.

The Bubble by the Numbers

--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--23 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.
--I have 9 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 32 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 22 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 12 slots right now. That's down one from last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

Last Night's GOI

--Clemson 87, at Boston College 77. Tigers put up a 52-spot in the 2nd frame and BC remains Bubblicious.
--at Kentucky 68, Florida 65. Jodie Meeks made a ridiculous three with 4 seconds left to give UK a win that bordered on "must."
--Michigan State 54, at Michigan 42. Wolverines were held to 15 first half points on their home court.
--at Texas 99, Oklahoma State 74. Horns break out of their mini-funk in a big way.
--at Villanova 102, Marquette 84. Nova is clicking at the right time and this put a serious dent in Marquette's 2-seed hopes.

Tonight's GOI
--Oklahoma at Baylor. It's desperation time for the Bears and this is a BIG opportunity to cash in.
--Syracuse at UConn. Orange are slipping away from a top 5 seed. This would help in that regard.
--Xavier at Dayton. It would be a good idea for the Flyers to hold serve here given their lack of beefy wins and their recent falter at Charlotte.
--North Carolina at Duke. I'll check to see if this one is on TV.
--Tulsa at Memphis. Tigers can get three clear of everyone with a win here.
--LSU at Mississippi State. Two best SEC West teams.
--Wake Forest at NC State. Deacs need to TCB after recent road losses at Miami-FL and GA Tech.
--Penn State at Purdue. Lions hopes hang by a thread.
--San Diego State at Utah. Two of five MWC teams making a case on the Bubble.
--Iowa at Wisconsin. Badgers have to win the ones like this one.