2.40 pm
--Northwestern is probably stuck as a "near miss" after losing handily to Minnesota.
--Kentucky came through in a must win. They need more, though.
--Providence will sweat for three days after bowing out to BEast 1-seed Louisville.
--Kansas cost themselves a seed line or two with a loss to the 9-seed in their own conference.
--Michigan and Temple have built huge leads at half. VA Tech also TCB vs Miami-FL, who will lobby and hope but is likely NITting. Xavier cruised over SLU as well.
--Villanova is looking to secure that high seed and is +16 on Marquette, who just hasn't been the same without James. They could slip into a dreaded 8/9 game if they don't make a comeback here.
--MtWest #1 BYU has not been able to shake Air Force, and in fact is down 3 at half.
--Currently, Clemson is -9 vs last-place ACC GA Tech (9 mins left to play). A loss to the Jackets would be costly given their sputtering finish.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Thursday Landscape
Below this post is an essay about the yearly rites of the NCAA tourney. Read it if you like.
Also, if you want to talk bracket on the radio with TBB, you can listen here:
Friday, Mar 13, 5 pm CST: Bowling Green's The Ticket, 1340 AM with the Sports Guys
Saturday, Mar 14, 10 am CST: 1450 AM Bowling Green, 1230 Glasgow (Kentucky)
--The OSS is updated through last night's games.
--I took Notre Dame out of the Lockbox. They will be NITting.
--Conference tourney fever reaches it height today as every tourney not already underway begins today. There's so many big games, it warrants a GOI.
Today's GOI
--Virginia vs Boston College. Eagles are in good shape, but a loss here would put them on the Bubble.
--NC State vs Maryland. Terps need a deep, strong run.
--Richmond vs Dayton. Flyers need to win a couple to feel totally safe.
--Duquesne vs Rhode Island. That loss to UMass badly damaged the Rams. They need a strong run and may need to win the whole thing.
--Saint Joseph's vs Temple. Anything but a trip to the finals and a good showing there kills the Owls.
--Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. Cowboys are in decent shape, but a win here would clinch it.
--Providence at Louisville. Friars can make huge hay with a win.
--Iowa vs Michigan. Wolverines cannot lose this one.
--Northwestern vs Minnesota. A win puts the Gophers in great shape, a loss puts them squarely on the Bubble. Wildcats have to have it.
--Indiana at Penn State. Lions can't afford a loss to IU.
--Wyoming vs New Mexico. Lobos need a big run.
--San Diego State at UNLV. Loser is probably done.
--Arizona at Arizona State. Cats could really use another win or two. A loss and they will be right on the fence.
--Southern Cal vs Cal. Trojans need a strong tourney showing.
--Mississippi vs Kentucky. UK needs multiple wins to have any shot.
Also, if you want to talk bracket on the radio with TBB, you can listen here:
Friday, Mar 13, 5 pm CST: Bowling Green's The Ticket, 1340 AM with the Sports Guys
Saturday, Mar 14, 10 am CST: 1450 AM Bowling Green, 1230 Glasgow (Kentucky)
--The OSS is updated through last night's games.
--I took Notre Dame out of the Lockbox. They will be NITting.
--Conference tourney fever reaches it height today as every tourney not already underway begins today. There's so many big games, it warrants a GOI.
Today's GOI
--Virginia vs Boston College. Eagles are in good shape, but a loss here would put them on the Bubble.
--NC State vs Maryland. Terps need a deep, strong run.
--Richmond vs Dayton. Flyers need to win a couple to feel totally safe.
--Duquesne vs Rhode Island. That loss to UMass badly damaged the Rams. They need a strong run and may need to win the whole thing.
--Saint Joseph's vs Temple. Anything but a trip to the finals and a good showing there kills the Owls.
--Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. Cowboys are in decent shape, but a win here would clinch it.
--Providence at Louisville. Friars can make huge hay with a win.
--Iowa vs Michigan. Wolverines cannot lose this one.
--Northwestern vs Minnesota. A win puts the Gophers in great shape, a loss puts them squarely on the Bubble. Wildcats have to have it.
--Indiana at Penn State. Lions can't afford a loss to IU.
--Wyoming vs New Mexico. Lobos need a big run.
--San Diego State at UNLV. Loser is probably done.
--Arizona at Arizona State. Cats could really use another win or two. A loss and they will be right on the fence.
--Southern Cal vs Cal. Trojans need a strong tourney showing.
--Mississippi vs Kentucky. UK needs multiple wins to have any shot.
With Madness Comes Sanity
Every NCAA Tournament brings with it wild hope and excitement for all 65 teams. A few elite teams look at their protected seed and see how much resistance they might meet before they get to the supposed sure-fire Elite Eight or Final Four (North Carolina, UConn, Oklahoma, Pitt). A big chunk of teams see tough match ups in the first round and fret over playing a team that they know little about in just four or five days. Others are simply happy to be in the bracket and await their chance to make history by upsetting some power conference stalwart in a 14-over-3 upset. Regardless of a team’s view of their place in Bracketville, the themes are accomplishment, electricity, anticipation, and a chance for glory.
Fans of all stripes will undoubtedly work themselves into a rich lather over what could be in store for their respective teams, but amid all the dreams of unknown splendor reside some constants that never change from year to year. Here lay the old souls of Bracketville that are always sitting at the barber shop or the lunch counter every season drinking coffee and telling all the youngsters about how the more things change, the more they stay the same. They are the cool, sane, steady constants of this once-a-year storm of excitement commonly known as March Madness.
Not many At-Large teams from non-power conferences
Bank on it: the lion’s share (and it’s a big, ferocious, man-eating lion this season) of At-Large bids will go to teams from power/BCS/”major” conferences. In fact, the only teams outside of the Big 6 plus the Mountain West and CUSA (the “power” conferences) that stand much of a chance at an At-Large bid this season are Butler, Xavier, Dayton, Gonzaga, Utah State, Davidson, Temple, Creighton, Rhode Island, and St. Mary’s. That’s it—and that is being quite generous in a few of those cases. If a number of those teams win their conference tourneys and do not need an At-Large bid, it could result in the smallest number of non-power At-Large teams in many years.
Since the RPI formula changed in 2005 to weight road games more heavily, 25 non-power conference teams have been awarded At-Large bids for an average of just over six per year. That means about 28/34 At-large teams come from power conferences. So called “mid-majors” will be fortunate to get that many this year. It does not look likely unless teams like Butler, Xavier, and Utah State lose in their conference tourneys.
Tirades about conference quotas
Teams get bids not conferences. There is no set number of bids for each conference—never has been. Recently, Kyle Whelliston of midmajority.com (and Hoopdom’s Mid-Major Czar) participated in the mock selection committee held for journalists to help the public understand the process. He noted that late in the process, he realized that no one had any idea how many teams were “in” from each conference. The committee looks at team profiles when making decisions. The question, “How many are in from the Big East?” simply does not come up. The ACC, ESPN’s darling conference, sent just three teams in 2000. They have sent as many as seven. It depends on the year and a team’s conference name alone does not help them get into the bracket.
Outrage from media types and fans
It happens every year. Dickie V will pick his case or two. So will Digger Phelps. Billy Packer retired, so hoop nation will be spared his C. Montgomery Burns-like-venom-spewing session directed at the committee chair this season. But many fans will unleash a red-faced, vein-bulging, profanity-laced tirade aimed at their television when their team is left out. The reality is that if a team is left out, they had a fatal flaw of some sort, or else ten experts would have voted them into the bracket. Folks can debate if their #35 or #36 best At-Large team should have gotten in over #34, but at the bottom of the bracket, the argument is almost always about which team is the least flawed and not about how X team “deserves” to get in.
Anointing of a Cinderella
“Cinderella.” Sometimes it fits the bill, like when a team seems coated with pixie dust and gets a lot of lucky breaks helping them to upend a couple of higher seeds. But, more often, it is assigned to teams in an effort to create a nice storyline for the media. Truthfully, if a team won their conference tourney and then makes a run in the national championship bracket, then they are likely a good basketball team. Just because they do not play in a TV conference does not mean they are not good, and just because Joe Fan cannot name any of their players does not mean they could not have competed in one of the power conferences. Appreciate the so-called “Cinderallas” for what they are: good teams that few people knew anything about or possible underachieving teams that put it together late. Was WKU a Cinderalla last year? NO! Anyone who watched WKU over the last 15 games knew this was a top-20 level team. Save the term for when it fits.
Buds of Spring
Finally, the tournament season comes in like a lion and out like a lamb. What begins in tumultuous March weather (I got snowed in on Monday and sunburned on Friday during my 1998 Spring Break in Washington, DC) will end in the warmer April showers of real, live Spring. The NCAA Tournament not only culminates a long winter of over 10,000 DI college basketball games, but launches the sports world into thoughts of days at the diamond-shaped ballpark, the Masters, and the rediscovery of the fresh, greening outdoors. In sports world, we put winter to bed with the most democratic championship in sports.
And that is the madness of March—the cool, constant, soothing, dependable madness. It does not matter if the jersey says North Carolina or Western Carolina, Duke or Drake, Syracuse or Binghamton. If a team wins their conference tourney and wins six games in the NCAA Tourney, they will be the national champion. Just like the discussed points above, it happens every year. Therefore, I have a hard time calling it “March Madness.” In fact, is the sanest championship in sports.
Fans of all stripes will undoubtedly work themselves into a rich lather over what could be in store for their respective teams, but amid all the dreams of unknown splendor reside some constants that never change from year to year. Here lay the old souls of Bracketville that are always sitting at the barber shop or the lunch counter every season drinking coffee and telling all the youngsters about how the more things change, the more they stay the same. They are the cool, sane, steady constants of this once-a-year storm of excitement commonly known as March Madness.
Not many At-Large teams from non-power conferences
Bank on it: the lion’s share (and it’s a big, ferocious, man-eating lion this season) of At-Large bids will go to teams from power/BCS/”major” conferences. In fact, the only teams outside of the Big 6 plus the Mountain West and CUSA (the “power” conferences) that stand much of a chance at an At-Large bid this season are Butler, Xavier, Dayton, Gonzaga, Utah State, Davidson, Temple, Creighton, Rhode Island, and St. Mary’s. That’s it—and that is being quite generous in a few of those cases. If a number of those teams win their conference tourneys and do not need an At-Large bid, it could result in the smallest number of non-power At-Large teams in many years.
Since the RPI formula changed in 2005 to weight road games more heavily, 25 non-power conference teams have been awarded At-Large bids for an average of just over six per year. That means about 28/34 At-large teams come from power conferences. So called “mid-majors” will be fortunate to get that many this year. It does not look likely unless teams like Butler, Xavier, and Utah State lose in their conference tourneys.
Tirades about conference quotas
Teams get bids not conferences. There is no set number of bids for each conference—never has been. Recently, Kyle Whelliston of midmajority.com (and Hoopdom’s Mid-Major Czar) participated in the mock selection committee held for journalists to help the public understand the process. He noted that late in the process, he realized that no one had any idea how many teams were “in” from each conference. The committee looks at team profiles when making decisions. The question, “How many are in from the Big East?” simply does not come up. The ACC, ESPN’s darling conference, sent just three teams in 2000. They have sent as many as seven. It depends on the year and a team’s conference name alone does not help them get into the bracket.
Outrage from media types and fans
It happens every year. Dickie V will pick his case or two. So will Digger Phelps. Billy Packer retired, so hoop nation will be spared his C. Montgomery Burns-like-venom-spewing session directed at the committee chair this season. But many fans will unleash a red-faced, vein-bulging, profanity-laced tirade aimed at their television when their team is left out. The reality is that if a team is left out, they had a fatal flaw of some sort, or else ten experts would have voted them into the bracket. Folks can debate if their #35 or #36 best At-Large team should have gotten in over #34, but at the bottom of the bracket, the argument is almost always about which team is the least flawed and not about how X team “deserves” to get in.
Anointing of a Cinderella
“Cinderella.” Sometimes it fits the bill, like when a team seems coated with pixie dust and gets a lot of lucky breaks helping them to upend a couple of higher seeds. But, more often, it is assigned to teams in an effort to create a nice storyline for the media. Truthfully, if a team won their conference tourney and then makes a run in the national championship bracket, then they are likely a good basketball team. Just because they do not play in a TV conference does not mean they are not good, and just because Joe Fan cannot name any of their players does not mean they could not have competed in one of the power conferences. Appreciate the so-called “Cinderallas” for what they are: good teams that few people knew anything about or possible underachieving teams that put it together late. Was WKU a Cinderalla last year? NO! Anyone who watched WKU over the last 15 games knew this was a top-20 level team. Save the term for when it fits.
Buds of Spring
Finally, the tournament season comes in like a lion and out like a lamb. What begins in tumultuous March weather (I got snowed in on Monday and sunburned on Friday during my 1998 Spring Break in Washington, DC) will end in the warmer April showers of real, live Spring. The NCAA Tournament not only culminates a long winter of over 10,000 DI college basketball games, but launches the sports world into thoughts of days at the diamond-shaped ballpark, the Masters, and the rediscovery of the fresh, greening outdoors. In sports world, we put winter to bed with the most democratic championship in sports.
And that is the madness of March—the cool, constant, soothing, dependable madness. It does not matter if the jersey says North Carolina or Western Carolina, Duke or Drake, Syracuse or Binghamton. If a team wins their conference tourney and wins six games in the NCAA Tourney, they will be the national champion. Just like the discussed points above, it happens every year. Therefore, I have a hard time calling it “March Madness.” In fact, is the sanest championship in sports.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Bracket Update 3/11
The new bracket is really just a tweak of Wed's. But, there are substantive changes in the auto bids. The 11-16 seeds had to be shifted a bit. And, with Butler's loss, St. Mary's is out.
2.40 pm
So far today, Providence did what they had to do and beat DePaul. Now, if they can beat Louisville, they might be in business. Marquette is absolutely undressing St. John's. It's 38-10 at half.
And I'm still on a high from the WKU win last night that clinched the Belt bid.
2.40 pm
So far today, Providence did what they had to do and beat DePaul. Now, if they can beat Louisville, they might be in business. Marquette is absolutely undressing St. John's. It's 38-10 at half.
And I'm still on a high from the WKU win last night that clinched the Belt bid.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Tuesday Night Music Club
These three earned bids tonight: WKU (Sun Belt), North Dakota State (Summit), and Cleveland State (Horizon). That last one cost some Bubble team an invite, and in the updated Lockbox, that team was St. Mary's. Full bracket update tomorrow.
Cleveland State played nip-and-tuck on Butler's home court before pulling it out late. ND State overcame a 10-pt deficit late as Ben Woodside's jumper with 3 seconds left lifted the Bison into the bracket in their first year of DI full eligibility. WKU built a 15-pt first half lead only to see South Alabama storm back to take a 4-pt advantage midway through the 2nd half. The Toppers methodically cranked up the D again and made every free throw they took in the game (!) to salt it away.
Given all that, the real shocker of the night was Weber State losing on their home court to #6 seed Montana State in the Big Sky. They went 15-1 in league, won it by a full FOUR games, and had won 12 straight. The only loss? A home loss to Montana State. Just like tonight.
The OSS is complete through tonight's games. Things get wild tomorrow. Aforementioned Montana State will play Portland State for the Big Sky bid. Mt. St. Mary's travels to Robert Morris to decide the Northeast rep, too. Big East and MEAC round twos are happening. The A-10, Big 12, Big West, CUSA, Mountain West, Pac-10, and SWAC all get going as well.
The most intriguing game outside of the bid games is probably Notre Dame vs West Virginia. A loss kills ND for good. A win puts them back in the convo. They are 6-3 in their last nine including a POUNDING of Louisville and a rout of Providence at the Donut.
Cleveland State played nip-and-tuck on Butler's home court before pulling it out late. ND State overcame a 10-pt deficit late as Ben Woodside's jumper with 3 seconds left lifted the Bison into the bracket in their first year of DI full eligibility. WKU built a 15-pt first half lead only to see South Alabama storm back to take a 4-pt advantage midway through the 2nd half. The Toppers methodically cranked up the D again and made every free throw they took in the game (!) to salt it away.
Given all that, the real shocker of the night was Weber State losing on their home court to #6 seed Montana State in the Big Sky. They went 15-1 in league, won it by a full FOUR games, and had won 12 straight. The only loss? A home loss to Montana State. Just like tonight.
The OSS is complete through tonight's games. Things get wild tomorrow. Aforementioned Montana State will play Portland State for the Big Sky bid. Mt. St. Mary's travels to Robert Morris to decide the Northeast rep, too. Big East and MEAC round twos are happening. The A-10, Big 12, Big West, CUSA, Mountain West, Pac-10, and SWAC all get going as well.
The most intriguing game outside of the bid games is probably Notre Dame vs West Virginia. A loss kills ND for good. A win puts them back in the convo. They are 6-3 in their last nine including a POUNDING of Louisville and a rout of Providence at the Donut.
Tuesday Landscape
--The OSS is up to date.
--Congrats Siena (MAAC) and Gonzaga (WCC). They joined Chattonooga and VCU as auto bids last night, Gonzaga doing so in devastating fashion over St. Mary's. Devastating enough to kill St. Mary's AL chances? They are certainly an interesting case for the committee.
--It's bid day for three conferences:
1. Cleveland State at Butler (Horizon). These two played just ten days ago in Hinkle in a down-to-the-wire affair. Bubble Nation is praying for Butler to win.
2. Oakland vs North Dakota State (Summit). The Bison are 17-1 in their last 18 and have only lost two games this calendar year. One of those was at Oakland by 1. They beat the Super Golden Crisp Grizzlies by 10 at home. The Grizz have won 9 in a row of their own.
3. WKU vs South Alabama (Sun Belt). After a year of relative parity in the Belt, it comes down to two old stalwarts. WKU beat USA twice in the regular season (by 12 at home, 3 at South AL), but both were close most of the way. WKU is 14-2 to end the season (6 straight) while USA is 8-2 in their last 10.
--In other action, the Big Sky semis, MEAC first round, and WAC first round are on tap. The MAC and Big East also get things started today.
--Congrats Siena (MAAC) and Gonzaga (WCC). They joined Chattonooga and VCU as auto bids last night, Gonzaga doing so in devastating fashion over St. Mary's. Devastating enough to kill St. Mary's AL chances? They are certainly an interesting case for the committee.
--It's bid day for three conferences:
1. Cleveland State at Butler (Horizon). These two played just ten days ago in Hinkle in a down-to-the-wire affair. Bubble Nation is praying for Butler to win.
2. Oakland vs North Dakota State (Summit). The Bison are 17-1 in their last 18 and have only lost two games this calendar year. One of those was at Oakland by 1. They beat the Super Golden Crisp Grizzlies by 10 at home. The Grizz have won 9 in a row of their own.
3. WKU vs South Alabama (Sun Belt). After a year of relative parity in the Belt, it comes down to two old stalwarts. WKU beat USA twice in the regular season (by 12 at home, 3 at South AL), but both were close most of the way. WKU is 14-2 to end the season (6 straight) while USA is 8-2 in their last 10.
--In other action, the Big Sky semis, MEAC first round, and WAC first round are on tap. The MAC and Big East also get things started today.
Monday, March 09, 2009
Monday Updates
9.33 pm CT
--Congrats to VCU (CAA) and Chattanooga (SoCon). They punched their tickets tonight.
--In the Belt, WKU won a war of attrition with North Texas that left its mark, literally and figuratively. It was a rough-and-tumble game, but North Texas found out it's difficult to outwork and out-battle the Hilltoppers. You simply have to be better and the Mean Green's hot early shooting left them late in the game. WKU gets the winner of South Alabama and pseudo-home team UALR and Team USA is all over them to start 15-3. UALR is having one of it's occasional offensive clunkers. Their D will probably get them back in it.
--Meanwhile, Siena and Niagara are in a lockjaw affair over in the MAAC final while Gonzaga is cruising up 20 over St. Mary's. Looks like thumb-twiddling time for the Gaels.
SCKySSiP Update
Our mock committee turned in our first lists today: At-Large list (teams who are already IN) and our Nomination board. We voted 26 teams IN, but a number of those will win their conference tourneys, so it's less AL teams than that.
--Congrats to VCU (CAA) and Chattanooga (SoCon). They punched their tickets tonight.
--In the Belt, WKU won a war of attrition with North Texas that left its mark, literally and figuratively. It was a rough-and-tumble game, but North Texas found out it's difficult to outwork and out-battle the Hilltoppers. You simply have to be better and the Mean Green's hot early shooting left them late in the game. WKU gets the winner of South Alabama and pseudo-home team UALR and Team USA is all over them to start 15-3. UALR is having one of it's occasional offensive clunkers. Their D will probably get them back in it.
--Meanwhile, Siena and Niagara are in a lockjaw affair over in the MAAC final while Gonzaga is cruising up 20 over St. Mary's. Looks like thumb-twiddling time for the Gaels.
SCKySSiP Update
Our mock committee turned in our first lists today: At-Large list (teams who are already IN) and our Nomination board. We voted 26 teams IN, but a number of those will win their conference tourneys, so it's less AL teams than that.
Bracket Update 3/9
It's wild, wild stuff at the bottom of today's bracket. I think there are STILL 8 spots in danger, but I took Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan, Creighton, St. Mary's, New Mexico, Florida, and Arizona. There are a gaggle of teams I could easily swap out including South Carolina, Miami-FL, UNLV, San Diego State and Maryland. There were a number of others on the board, too.
At the top, I think Michigan State has earned a 1 if they win the Big Televen tourney. They have a full three more top 50 RPI wins than any other team in the country as of today.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State
Big East (7): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
ACC (6): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (5): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, New Mexico
SEC (3): LSU, Tennessee, Florida
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, Creighton
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
I made some adjustments to the Lockbox, too. No longer are blue teams "win games they should," but more "needs to win a game two to feel secure." These teams are not likely to miss, but let's face it, Wisconsin, Dayton, BC, Ohio State...these teams will not sleep easy if they lose their first tourney game. They are likely IN, but can seal the deal with one more victory. The Bubble is still at 8 slots today, although a couple of teams could fall back onto it with poor tourney showings. It's a huge Bubble for this late in the game.
At the top, I think Michigan State has earned a 1 if they win the Big Televen tourney. They have a full three more top 50 RPI wins than any other team in the country as of today.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State
Big East (7): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
ACC (6): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (5): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, New Mexico
SEC (3): LSU, Tennessee, Florida
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, Creighton
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
I made some adjustments to the Lockbox, too. No longer are blue teams "win games they should," but more "needs to win a game two to feel secure." These teams are not likely to miss, but let's face it, Wisconsin, Dayton, BC, Ohio State...these teams will not sleep easy if they lose their first tourney game. They are likely IN, but can seal the deal with one more victory. The Bubble is still at 8 slots today, although a couple of teams could fall back onto it with poor tourney showings. It's a huge Bubble for this late in the game.
T-Minus 6 days
1. The One Stop Shop is updated through last night and all other tourney brackets are now set.
2. Bracket and lockbox updates coming this afternoon.
3. Bid Games today:
--George Mason vs VCU (Colonial)
--Niagara vs Siena (MAAC)
--College of Charleston at Chattanooga (SoCon)
--St. Mary's vs Gonzaga (West Coast)
Bubble nation is rooting hard for Siena and a blowout loss for St. Mary's.
Other games today: Sun Belt and Summit semis.
More this afternoon.
2. Bracket and lockbox updates coming this afternoon.
3. Bid Games today:
--George Mason vs VCU (Colonial)
--Niagara vs Siena (MAAC)
--College of Charleston at Chattanooga (SoCon)
--St. Mary's vs Gonzaga (West Coast)
Bubble nation is rooting hard for Siena and a blowout loss for St. Mary's.
Other games today: Sun Belt and Summit semis.
More this afternoon.
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Sunday Updates
4.10 pm
--Congrats, Northern Iowa! The Panthers escaped an Osiris Eldridge barrage from Illinois State and will rep the Valley.
--WKU held FIU at arms length and pulled away late in the first of four Sun Belt quarters today.
--Michigan State leaned on Purdue in the 2nd half and is really pushing for a 1-seed now.
--VA Tech lost to FSU, so they are going to need a monster ACC tourney run.
--Tennessee kept up the absolute staunch mediocrity of the SEC East by losing at home to Alabama to close this season. This may help South Carolina since they finish in a tie with the Vols, even though Tennessee wins the tie breaker.
6.50 am
--There are four bids taken now as East Tennessee State (ASUN), Morehead State (OVC), and Radford (Big South) all won auto bids yesterday. They join Cornell at the party. The OSS is up to date.
--After wins yesterday, I LOCKed Utah and BYU in the Lockbox. I also moved Rhode Island out and Michigan in. That's the only sure-fire change I can make today before further evaluation. Full bracket tomorrow a/noon.
--Louisville is your Big East champ, and with a strong tourney, they are going to be in the 1-seed mix.
--One bid game today: MVC championship. Illinois State ripped Creighton by 24 yesterday, sending the Jays into an 8-day sweat and causing Bubble Nation to get even more nervy. ISU will take on 1-seed Northern Iowa who disposed of Bradley by 16 in the other semi.
--Sun Belt starts quarterfinal action today and the America East, CAA, MAAC, Patriot, Southern and West Coast have semis going. There are also two quarterfinal games in the Summit.
--Congrats, Northern Iowa! The Panthers escaped an Osiris Eldridge barrage from Illinois State and will rep the Valley.
--WKU held FIU at arms length and pulled away late in the first of four Sun Belt quarters today.
--Michigan State leaned on Purdue in the 2nd half and is really pushing for a 1-seed now.
--VA Tech lost to FSU, so they are going to need a monster ACC tourney run.
--Tennessee kept up the absolute staunch mediocrity of the SEC East by losing at home to Alabama to close this season. This may help South Carolina since they finish in a tie with the Vols, even though Tennessee wins the tie breaker.
6.50 am
--There are four bids taken now as East Tennessee State (ASUN), Morehead State (OVC), and Radford (Big South) all won auto bids yesterday. They join Cornell at the party. The OSS is up to date.
--After wins yesterday, I LOCKed Utah and BYU in the Lockbox. I also moved Rhode Island out and Michigan in. That's the only sure-fire change I can make today before further evaluation. Full bracket tomorrow a/noon.
--Louisville is your Big East champ, and with a strong tourney, they are going to be in the 1-seed mix.
--One bid game today: MVC championship. Illinois State ripped Creighton by 24 yesterday, sending the Jays into an 8-day sweat and causing Bubble Nation to get even more nervy. ISU will take on 1-seed Northern Iowa who disposed of Bradley by 16 in the other semi.
--Sun Belt starts quarterfinal action today and the America East, CAA, MAAC, Patriot, Southern and West Coast have semis going. There are also two quarterfinal games in the Summit.
Saturday, March 07, 2009
Saturday Updates
2.10 pm
--OSS is updated.
--VCU is through to the CAA semis.
--Michigan strengthened their case and pushed Minnesota firmly onto the Bubble by winning at The Barn.
--Pitt did themselves (and Louisville) a big favor by beating UConn. UL can win the BEAST outright with a win at West Virginia tonight.
--Miami-FL stayed alive by beating NC State.
--Seton Hall extinguished Cincinnati's slim AL hopes.
--BC is all but IN after squeaking past GA Tech.
--Mizzou is getting taken behind Grandpa's shed by Texas A&M at half (51-29!). Unless they Aggies collapse, this will LOCK them in.
--Kentucky nor Florida look like NCAA teams to me based on the first half.
--OSS is updated.
--VCU is through to the CAA semis.
--Michigan strengthened their case and pushed Minnesota firmly onto the Bubble by winning at The Barn.
--Pitt did themselves (and Louisville) a big favor by beating UConn. UL can win the BEAST outright with a win at West Virginia tonight.
--Miami-FL stayed alive by beating NC State.
--Seton Hall extinguished Cincinnati's slim AL hopes.
--BC is all but IN after squeaking past GA Tech.
--Mizzou is getting taken behind Grandpa's shed by Texas A&M at half (51-29!). Unless they Aggies collapse, this will LOCK them in.
--Kentucky nor Florida look like NCAA teams to me based on the first half.
Friday, March 06, 2009
First Ticket Punched
Cornell gets the first ticket. They wasted Penn tonight and Princeton got rolled up by Columbia giving the Big Red a +2 advantage with one game to play. I have put them into the Auto Bid sheet in the updated One Stop Shop through Friday night's games.
And Bubbleland breathed a collective sigh as Booker Woodfox's last second jumper had eyes and saved Creighton's bacon after they had frittered away a huge second half lead vs Wichita State in a Valley quarterfinal game.
Saturday's Bid Games
A-Sun: Jacksonville vs East Tenn State
Big South: VMI at Radford
OVC: Morehead State vs Austin Peay
And Bubbleland breathed a collective sigh as Booker Woodfox's last second jumper had eyes and saved Creighton's bacon after they had frittered away a huge second half lead vs Wichita State in a Valley quarterfinal game.
Saturday's Bid Games
A-Sun: Jacksonville vs East Tenn State
Big South: VMI at Radford
OVC: Morehead State vs Austin Peay
Bracket Update 3/6
Lots of new blood at the bottom today's bracket. Florida, Providence, and South Carolina out; Rhode Island, New Mexico and Creighton in (sort of). Creighton has been showing up as the auto bid, but my rule is that the 1-seed in the conference tourney gets the projected auto bid. That's not Creighton in the Valley tourney, it's UNI. So, Creighton grabbed one of the final AL slots.
The Bubble is bigger than 6 slots, but I feel like 6 were truly up for grabs. I took Creighton, Maryland, Arizona, UNLV, Rhode Island, and New Mexico over Michigan, Northwestern, Providence, Miami-FL, St. Mary's, South Carolina, and Florida. There are a few more teams out on the fringe, but they need big-time finishes to jump these teams.
It's hard to imagine the SEC only getting two teams in, but they have worked very hard on their collective mediocrity and may get rewarded justly. Kentucky's RPI is 79 today, so they are going to need a big finish. South Carolina lacks anything resembling a big win and Florida is languishing home having lost 6/9. Auburn is getting some talk, but they are a long, long shot. Tough times for the SEC.
Interestingly, the SEC commissioner is this year's selection committee chair. That's a neutral statement, but an intriguing one nonetheless.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
Big East (7): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten (7): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (5): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona
Mountain West (4): Utah, BYU, UNLV, New Mexico
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island
Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, Creighton
SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
The Bubble is bigger than 6 slots, but I feel like 6 were truly up for grabs. I took Creighton, Maryland, Arizona, UNLV, Rhode Island, and New Mexico over Michigan, Northwestern, Providence, Miami-FL, St. Mary's, South Carolina, and Florida. There are a few more teams out on the fringe, but they need big-time finishes to jump these teams.
It's hard to imagine the SEC only getting two teams in, but they have worked very hard on their collective mediocrity and may get rewarded justly. Kentucky's RPI is 79 today, so they are going to need a big finish. South Carolina lacks anything resembling a big win and Florida is languishing home having lost 6/9. Auburn is getting some talk, but they are a long, long shot. Tough times for the SEC.
Interestingly, the SEC commissioner is this year's selection committee chair. That's a neutral statement, but an intriguing one nonetheless.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
Big East (7): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten (7): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (5): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona
Mountain West (4): Utah, BYU, UNLV, New Mexico
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island
Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, Creighton
SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
LOCKS, Tourneys, Weekend Forecast
Bracket coming later today.
After wins last night, I LOCKed UCLA and Cal in the Lockbox. I also LOCKed West Virginia and Syracuse.
CONFERENCE TOURNEYS
The A-Sun's top 4 are through as are the Big South's top two (bid game on Sat!). The higher seeds are now 27-5 this season and we are still waiting on the first big upset. See all the brackets in the One Stop Shop.
Last Night's GOI
--Cal 83, at Arizona 77. Bad time of the year to lose four in a row, Zona. They must hold at home vs Stanford this weekend and should probably win a Pac 10 tourney game to be safe.
--at Penn State 64, Illinois 63. A Bubble who wins when the chips are down does mucho goodness for themselves right now.
--Tennessee 86, at South Carolina 70. Vols win the East #1 seed and may have knocked out the Gamecocks. USC East lacks ANY wins against the RPI top 50 or any team projected to be in the bracket!!! They also lacked any semblance of discipline, rebounding or shot selection. With the nation (and the committee) watching, they looked terrible. Gamecocks will need to win at Georgia and make a run in the SEC tourney.
--at Temple 68, Saint Joseph's 59. Owls keep their hopes on life support.
--at Villanova 97, Providence 80. Friars may not have lost much ground with this loss, but they missed a chance to solidify themselves. They will need some Big East tourney wins.
--at Xavier 76, Dayton 59. X clinched a share of the A10 title. Flyers are probably OK if they hold serve vs Duquesne this weekend and avoid a bad loss in the A10 tourney.
WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Penn at Cornell. The Big Red play two games this weekend. Win both and they get the Ivy bid. Princeton is one game back while Yale and Dartmouth are two behind.
--St. John's at Notre Dame. Irish need to win out to the Big East final for any hope.
--Conference tourneys in action: America East, A-Sun, Colonial, Horizon, MAAC, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, Southern and West Coast.
Saturday
--VMI at Radford. Big South Auto Bid!
--Stanford at Arizona. Cats need to stop the bleeding.
--Conference tourneys: AmEast, Big Sky, Colonial, Horizon, MAAC, Southern, Summit, West Coast
--Cal at Arizona State. Devils are also on a skid that needs to end.
--LSU at Auburn. A win by the Tigers could get them some attention, although the non-conf train wreck is probably too much to overcome.
--Georgia Tech at Boston College. Eagles cannot afford a slip of this magnitude.
--Seton Hall at Cincinnati. Bearcats are going to need several in a row.
--Duquesne at Dayton. Flyers need to hold serve to stay away from the Bubble.
--Kentucky at Florida. Both playing for their lives...and both probably need more than this win.
--Temple at George Washington. Owls slim hopes rest on winning out to the A10 final.
--South Carolina at Georgia. Gamecocks are in must-win mode.
--Penn State at Iowa. Lions need to consolidate that big win over Illinois.
--Texas at Kansas. Both need it for seeding purposes.
--Syracuse at Marquette. Seeding.
--Purdue at Michigan State. Sparty has designs on a 1-seed.
--Michigan at Minnesota. Wolverines need it more, but this would put Minnesota in great shape.
--Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. Sooners try to hold their 1-seed while the Cowboys play to lock themselves IN.
--UConn at Pitt. HUGE Big East and 1-seed implications. Your Harry Hamlin Clash of the Titans Game of the Weekend.
--UMass at Rhode Island. Red-hot Rams need to keep stacking up wins to have hope.
--UNLV at San Diego State. Tough game for the very Bubbly Rebels. Aztecs could get into the convo with a win.
--Missouri at Texas A&M. Seeding mostly.
--TCU at Utah. Utes can clinch a share of MWC.
--Maryland at Virginia. Terps cannot afford a loss here.
--Louisville at West Virginia. Cards are playing for a piece of the Big East title and a 1-seed.
--Indiana at Wisconsin. Badgers have to hold this one.
--Washington State at Washington. Huskies can clinch the Pac 10 title.
Sunday
--Virginia Tech at Florida State. Hokies need a very strong finish.
--Duke at North Carolina. ACC title and 1-seed implications.
--Northwestern at Ohio State. Classic Bubble game, with NWern needing it more.
--Clemson at Wake Forest. ACC and high seed implications.
Conference tourneys: Northeast, Patriot, Summit, Sun Belt, West Coast
After wins last night, I LOCKed UCLA and Cal in the Lockbox. I also LOCKed West Virginia and Syracuse.
CONFERENCE TOURNEYS
The A-Sun's top 4 are through as are the Big South's top two (bid game on Sat!). The higher seeds are now 27-5 this season and we are still waiting on the first big upset. See all the brackets in the One Stop Shop.
Last Night's GOI
--Cal 83, at Arizona 77. Bad time of the year to lose four in a row, Zona. They must hold at home vs Stanford this weekend and should probably win a Pac 10 tourney game to be safe.
--at Penn State 64, Illinois 63. A Bubble who wins when the chips are down does mucho goodness for themselves right now.
--Tennessee 86, at South Carolina 70. Vols win the East #1 seed and may have knocked out the Gamecocks. USC East lacks ANY wins against the RPI top 50 or any team projected to be in the bracket!!! They also lacked any semblance of discipline, rebounding or shot selection. With the nation (and the committee) watching, they looked terrible. Gamecocks will need to win at Georgia and make a run in the SEC tourney.
--at Temple 68, Saint Joseph's 59. Owls keep their hopes on life support.
--at Villanova 97, Providence 80. Friars may not have lost much ground with this loss, but they missed a chance to solidify themselves. They will need some Big East tourney wins.
--at Xavier 76, Dayton 59. X clinched a share of the A10 title. Flyers are probably OK if they hold serve vs Duquesne this weekend and avoid a bad loss in the A10 tourney.
WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Penn at Cornell. The Big Red play two games this weekend. Win both and they get the Ivy bid. Princeton is one game back while Yale and Dartmouth are two behind.
--St. John's at Notre Dame. Irish need to win out to the Big East final for any hope.
--Conference tourneys in action: America East, A-Sun, Colonial, Horizon, MAAC, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, Southern and West Coast.
Saturday
--VMI at Radford. Big South Auto Bid!
--Stanford at Arizona. Cats need to stop the bleeding.
--Conference tourneys: AmEast, Big Sky, Colonial, Horizon, MAAC, Southern, Summit, West Coast
--Cal at Arizona State. Devils are also on a skid that needs to end.
--LSU at Auburn. A win by the Tigers could get them some attention, although the non-conf train wreck is probably too much to overcome.
--Georgia Tech at Boston College. Eagles cannot afford a slip of this magnitude.
--Seton Hall at Cincinnati. Bearcats are going to need several in a row.
--Duquesne at Dayton. Flyers need to hold serve to stay away from the Bubble.
--Kentucky at Florida. Both playing for their lives...and both probably need more than this win.
--Temple at George Washington. Owls slim hopes rest on winning out to the A10 final.
--South Carolina at Georgia. Gamecocks are in must-win mode.
--Penn State at Iowa. Lions need to consolidate that big win over Illinois.
--Texas at Kansas. Both need it for seeding purposes.
--Syracuse at Marquette. Seeding.
--Purdue at Michigan State. Sparty has designs on a 1-seed.
--Michigan at Minnesota. Wolverines need it more, but this would put Minnesota in great shape.
--Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. Sooners try to hold their 1-seed while the Cowboys play to lock themselves IN.
--UConn at Pitt. HUGE Big East and 1-seed implications. Your Harry Hamlin Clash of the Titans Game of the Weekend.
--UMass at Rhode Island. Red-hot Rams need to keep stacking up wins to have hope.
--UNLV at San Diego State. Tough game for the very Bubbly Rebels. Aztecs could get into the convo with a win.
--Missouri at Texas A&M. Seeding mostly.
--TCU at Utah. Utes can clinch a share of MWC.
--Maryland at Virginia. Terps cannot afford a loss here.
--Louisville at West Virginia. Cards are playing for a piece of the Big East title and a 1-seed.
--Indiana at Wisconsin. Badgers have to hold this one.
--Washington State at Washington. Huskies can clinch the Pac 10 title.
Sunday
--Virginia Tech at Florida State. Hokies need a very strong finish.
--Duke at North Carolina. ACC title and 1-seed implications.
--Northwestern at Ohio State. Classic Bubble game, with NWern needing it more.
--Clemson at Wake Forest. ACC and high seed implications.
Conference tourneys: Northeast, Patriot, Summit, Sun Belt, West Coast
Thursday, March 05, 2009
More Chalk (But No Rock Chalk Jayhawk)
Lockbox has been updated. New full bracket update tomorrow.
And we had a horse come off the pace and grab my last at-large slot today: Rhode Island. The Rams have some deficiencies, but Miami-FL, Florida and Kentucky spit the bit last night. Cincinnati did so on Tuesday. Michigan, Northwestern, San Diego State...just as many holes and they don't have the cap feather of being hotter than a $2 pistol at the moment. The Rams are. The #48 RPI is acceptable. They are 10-1 in their last 11 and have won six straight, including one over Dayton with whom they are tied for 2nd in the A10. They have played FOURTEEN true road games and won 9 of them. They might have a hard time staying in, but today they look better than a lot of floundering Bubble Boys.
The other big news from last night was the Bubble bloodbath that occurred in the SEC and Kansas' damaging loss at Texas Tech. Actually, the bigger news is that some teams had their seasons ended. Let's get to that.
CONFERENCE TOURNEYS
The A-Sun and Big South continue, while the Valley and Northeast crank it up.
Last night's games have been updated in the One Stop Shop. The chalk was pretty good again, going 8-2 and making the running tally 19-3 for higher seeds. One of those "upsets" was in the Sun Belt as #9 FIU nipped #8 UL-Lafayette by 2. FIU has had some injuries this season and is much healthier now, so this was an upset in seed only. FIU is a better team.
Missouri Valley
It was all Northern Iowa for a long time, but Creighton remembered who they were and close hard. UNI still won the tie-breaker and kept the won seed. Illinois State is the #3 and has an outside shot, but it would be surprising if UNI or Creighton did not take this one. And, the Jays are hot, winners of 10 straight, and the favorite.
Northeast
Robert Morris dominated this league for most of the season. They were 13-1 before stumbling in a couple of game and haven't really crush teams in their last two. So, the door is open, but the Colonials are the fave. Mt. St. Mary's, Long Island, and Sacred Heart logjammed in a tie for 2nd.
Last Night's GOI
--Texas A&M 72, at Colorado 66. Aggies avoid disaster.
--Georgia 90, at Kentucky 85. Wildcats find disaster. Gonna need a BIG run here at the end.
--at Minnesota 51, Wisconsin 46. Gophers stay on the good side.
--at Mississippi State 80, Florida 71. Gators will have to win at home vs Kentucky and may need a win or two in the SEC tourney.
--at Missouri 73, Oklahoma 64. This huge win allowed Mizzou to hold out hope for a share of the Big 12 crown as Kansas crashed and burned at Texas Tech. Weird, wild stuff.
--at NC State 74, Boston College 69. Eagles cannot stand not being on the Bubble.
--at Pitt 90, Marquette 75. Panthers strengthen their 1-seed hand.
--Northwestern 64, at Purdue 61. Wildcats get right back in the mix by scoring a huge win while much of the Bubble faltered.
-- at UTEP 70, UAB 52. Blazers must win CUSA tourney.
--North Carolina 86, at Virginia Tech 78. Hokies probably need to beat FSU and make a little run in the ACC tourney.
Tonight's GOI
--Cal at Arizona. Cats really need to hold serve at home in these last two games lest they slide out.
--Illinois at Penn State. Lions cannot afford losses of any sort due to their bad RPI for an AL team (#66 today).
--Tennessee at South Carolina. Hard to imagine a bigger game. SEC East title on the line, as the winner will have a one game lead going into their final game this weekend. If UTenn wins, they win the tie-breaker by sweeping SCar. SCar is playing for their NCAA lives. Tennessee is trying to stay off the Bubble. It's BIG.
--Saint Joseph's at Temple. Owls have to win out to the A10 final to hold even slim AL hopes.
--Providence at Villanova. Friars could do themselves a lot of good with a monster road win.
--Dayton at Xavier. X has their nose in front, but would fall into a three way tie for first with a loss. Dayton is trying to stay off the Bubble.
And we had a horse come off the pace and grab my last at-large slot today: Rhode Island. The Rams have some deficiencies, but Miami-FL, Florida and Kentucky spit the bit last night. Cincinnati did so on Tuesday. Michigan, Northwestern, San Diego State...just as many holes and they don't have the cap feather of being hotter than a $2 pistol at the moment. The Rams are. The #48 RPI is acceptable. They are 10-1 in their last 11 and have won six straight, including one over Dayton with whom they are tied for 2nd in the A10. They have played FOURTEEN true road games and won 9 of them. They might have a hard time staying in, but today they look better than a lot of floundering Bubble Boys.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--29 teams are LOCKS or listed in black. The black teams could miss, but at this stage it would be extremely surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.
--I have 7 other teams listed in blue (I upgraded OK State, Texas A&M, Tennessee, BYU, and Minnesota and downgraded Boston College to "Bubble IN" today) which means they are on their way, but still have a little work to do. Of these 36 black and blue teams, 11 are conference leaders. That means 25 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 9 slots right now. That's down two from last week. This will shrink over the coming days, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.
The other big news from last night was the Bubble bloodbath that occurred in the SEC and Kansas' damaging loss at Texas Tech. Actually, the bigger news is that some teams had their seasons ended. Let's get to that.
CONFERENCE TOURNEYS
The A-Sun and Big South continue, while the Valley and Northeast crank it up.
Last night's games have been updated in the One Stop Shop. The chalk was pretty good again, going 8-2 and making the running tally 19-3 for higher seeds. One of those "upsets" was in the Sun Belt as #9 FIU nipped #8 UL-Lafayette by 2. FIU has had some injuries this season and is much healthier now, so this was an upset in seed only. FIU is a better team.
Missouri Valley
It was all Northern Iowa for a long time, but Creighton remembered who they were and close hard. UNI still won the tie-breaker and kept the won seed. Illinois State is the #3 and has an outside shot, but it would be surprising if UNI or Creighton did not take this one. And, the Jays are hot, winners of 10 straight, and the favorite.
Northeast
Robert Morris dominated this league for most of the season. They were 13-1 before stumbling in a couple of game and haven't really crush teams in their last two. So, the door is open, but the Colonials are the fave. Mt. St. Mary's, Long Island, and Sacred Heart logjammed in a tie for 2nd.
Last Night's GOI
--Texas A&M 72, at Colorado 66. Aggies avoid disaster.
--Georgia 90, at Kentucky 85. Wildcats find disaster. Gonna need a BIG run here at the end.
--at Minnesota 51, Wisconsin 46. Gophers stay on the good side.
--at Mississippi State 80, Florida 71. Gators will have to win at home vs Kentucky and may need a win or two in the SEC tourney.
--at Missouri 73, Oklahoma 64. This huge win allowed Mizzou to hold out hope for a share of the Big 12 crown as Kansas crashed and burned at Texas Tech. Weird, wild stuff.
--at NC State 74, Boston College 69. Eagles cannot stand not being on the Bubble.
--at Pitt 90, Marquette 75. Panthers strengthen their 1-seed hand.
--Northwestern 64, at Purdue 61. Wildcats get right back in the mix by scoring a huge win while much of the Bubble faltered.
-- at UTEP 70, UAB 52. Blazers must win CUSA tourney.
--North Carolina 86, at Virginia Tech 78. Hokies probably need to beat FSU and make a little run in the ACC tourney.
Tonight's GOI
--Cal at Arizona. Cats really need to hold serve at home in these last two games lest they slide out.
--Illinois at Penn State. Lions cannot afford losses of any sort due to their bad RPI for an AL team (#66 today).
--Tennessee at South Carolina. Hard to imagine a bigger game. SEC East title on the line, as the winner will have a one game lead going into their final game this weekend. If UTenn wins, they win the tie-breaker by sweeping SCar. SCar is playing for their NCAA lives. Tennessee is trying to stay off the Bubble. It's BIG.
--Saint Joseph's at Temple. Owls have to win out to the A10 final to hold even slim AL hopes.
--Providence at Villanova. Friars could do themselves a lot of good with a monster road win.
--Dayton at Xavier. X has their nose in front, but would fall into a three way tie for first with a loss. Dayton is trying to stay off the Bubble.
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Updates and Chalk
BRACKET/LOCKBOX
I tweaked the bracket today, dropping Cincinnati out and putting in South Carolina. I considered dropping Maryland out, but left them in. Michigan and Miami-FL were the two I was most strongly considering. New bracket on Friday.
I moved OK State to blue in the Lockbox.
CONFERENCE TOURNEYS
Last night was, in a word, "chalky" in the conference tourneys as the higher seeds went 11-1. See results for the Big South, Horizon, and OVC in the One Stop Shop.
More action tonight as the Atlantic Sun, Patriot and Sun Belt get things going.
Atlantic Sun
Jacksonville, Belmont, and East Tennessee State have traded the lead all season, but the Jax earned the 1-seed bye. Lipscomb has come on strong at the end and could play spoiler.
Patriot
American has dominated and is far away the best team by nearly any measure. They lost just one league game at #2 seed Holy Cross. They are a heavy favorite, but the Crusaders played them tough at American, too.
Sun Belt
If you follow this site, you should know the story in the Belt. The top three seeds really separated themselves this season. WKU, UALR, and Troy all have a good shot to win this thing. WKU has probably played the best lately, but UALR has the pseudo-home court (Hot Springs, AR). Troy is 12-1 in their last 13. It would be surprising if one of those three did not come away with the tourney title.
Last Night's GOI
--Auburn 77, at Alabama 73. The Tigers just sewed up the West #2 seed and secured a bye in the SEC tourney. They have won 8/9 including three road games.
--at Duke 84, Florida State 81. Devils scratch out a tough one at home.
--Michigan State 64, at Indiana 59. Despite a game effort from IU, Sparty is your 2009 Big Ten champion.
--Ohio State 60, at Iowa 58. With the Bubble looming and a significant 2nd half deficit in place, the Buckeyes regrouped and clawed out a hard-fought road win.
--at New Mexico 77, Utah 71. Lobos are officially a factor in the AL picture. Their RPI is up to 63 and they are 11-3 in their last 14 with wins over BYU and Utah.
--Wake Forest 65, at Maryland 63. Terps let another big fish wriggle off the hook in a home game.
--at Oklahoma State 77, Kansas State 71. OK State is in decent position now having won six straight. A loss at Oklahoma won't kill them. One win in the Big 12 would put them in nice shape.
--at South Florida 70, Cincinnati 59. Just can't do this as a Bubble. Bearcats have now dropped 4/5 and are going to need to beat SHU and have a nice run in the Bif East tourney.
--at St. John's 59, Georgetown 56 (OT). Hoyas now trail Seton Hall in the Big East standings. They will have to win the conference tourney.
Tonight's GOI
--Texas A&M at Colorado. Aggies are in decent shape, but cannot afford a loss to the lowly Buffs.
--Georgia at Kentucky. Wildcats must win this one.
--Wisconsin at Minnesota. Neither team is totally solid, but a home loss for the Gophers would make them sub-.500 in league play and make them very Bubbly.
--Florida at Mississippi State. Gators cannot afford any losses right now.
--Oklahoma at Missouri. Titanic match up.
--Boston College at NC State. Eagles will be in good shape with a win here.
--Marquette at Pitt. Big seeding implications for both Big East and NCAA tourneys.
--Northwestern at Purdue. Wildcats have two tough roadies left and probably need to win both to get have a realistic shot.
--UAB at UTEP. Blazers slim hopes rest on winning out to the CUSA final.
--North Carolina at Virginia Tech. Hokies need at least a split this one and the finale (at FSU).
I tweaked the bracket today, dropping Cincinnati out and putting in South Carolina. I considered dropping Maryland out, but left them in. Michigan and Miami-FL were the two I was most strongly considering. New bracket on Friday.
I moved OK State to blue in the Lockbox.
CONFERENCE TOURNEYS
Last night was, in a word, "chalky" in the conference tourneys as the higher seeds went 11-1. See results for the Big South, Horizon, and OVC in the One Stop Shop.
More action tonight as the Atlantic Sun, Patriot and Sun Belt get things going.
Atlantic Sun
Jacksonville, Belmont, and East Tennessee State have traded the lead all season, but the Jax earned the 1-seed bye. Lipscomb has come on strong at the end and could play spoiler.
Patriot
American has dominated and is far away the best team by nearly any measure. They lost just one league game at #2 seed Holy Cross. They are a heavy favorite, but the Crusaders played them tough at American, too.
Sun Belt
If you follow this site, you should know the story in the Belt. The top three seeds really separated themselves this season. WKU, UALR, and Troy all have a good shot to win this thing. WKU has probably played the best lately, but UALR has the pseudo-home court (Hot Springs, AR). Troy is 12-1 in their last 13. It would be surprising if one of those three did not come away with the tourney title.
Last Night's GOI
--Auburn 77, at Alabama 73. The Tigers just sewed up the West #2 seed and secured a bye in the SEC tourney. They have won 8/9 including three road games.
--at Duke 84, Florida State 81. Devils scratch out a tough one at home.
--Michigan State 64, at Indiana 59. Despite a game effort from IU, Sparty is your 2009 Big Ten champion.
--Ohio State 60, at Iowa 58. With the Bubble looming and a significant 2nd half deficit in place, the Buckeyes regrouped and clawed out a hard-fought road win.
--at New Mexico 77, Utah 71. Lobos are officially a factor in the AL picture. Their RPI is up to 63 and they are 11-3 in their last 14 with wins over BYU and Utah.
--Wake Forest 65, at Maryland 63. Terps let another big fish wriggle off the hook in a home game.
--at Oklahoma State 77, Kansas State 71. OK State is in decent position now having won six straight. A loss at Oklahoma won't kill them. One win in the Big 12 would put them in nice shape.
--at South Florida 70, Cincinnati 59. Just can't do this as a Bubble. Bearcats have now dropped 4/5 and are going to need to beat SHU and have a nice run in the Bif East tourney.
--at St. John's 59, Georgetown 56 (OT). Hoyas now trail Seton Hall in the Big East standings. They will have to win the conference tourney.
Tonight's GOI
--Texas A&M at Colorado. Aggies are in decent shape, but cannot afford a loss to the lowly Buffs.
--Georgia at Kentucky. Wildcats must win this one.
--Wisconsin at Minnesota. Neither team is totally solid, but a home loss for the Gophers would make them sub-.500 in league play and make them very Bubbly.
--Florida at Mississippi State. Gators cannot afford any losses right now.
--Oklahoma at Missouri. Titanic match up.
--Boston College at NC State. Eagles will be in good shape with a win here.
--Marquette at Pitt. Big seeding implications for both Big East and NCAA tourneys.
--Northwestern at Purdue. Wildcats have two tough roadies left and probably need to win both to get have a realistic shot.
--UAB at UTEP. Blazers slim hopes rest on winning out to the CUSA final.
--North Carolina at Virginia Tech. Hokies need at least a split this one and the finale (at FSU).
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Conference Tourneys: ENGAGE!
Three conference tourneys get underway tonight, and here's the lowdown on these early birds.
Big South. This is the time when normally we pencil "Winthrop" into the NCAA bracket. Not this year. It was a dogfight between Radford and VMI during the regular season with the Highlanders coming out on top. They had won 9 games in a row before losing their season finale at home to Liberty by 7...a team VMI decapitated by 37 not one week earier. Radford and VMI are the faves, but beware aforementioned Liberty (#3 seed) and familiar Winthrop, a team that has won five straight.
Horizon. Bubbleland is praying Butler comes through this bracket. And, while they will have the advantage playing at home if they win, there are plenty of worthy challengers. Cleveland State nearly missed getting them in Hinkle last weekend. UW-Green Bay (who beat Butler this season) and Wright State are also worthy challengers. UW-Milwaukee and even Loyola-Chi nipped the Bulldogs in the regular season. Butler is the clear favorite, but do not be suprised if one of the other quality teams in the Horizon gets through. And Bubbleworld will groan, because Butler will nab an AL bid if they lose.
Ohio Valley. While I follow the Sun Belt more closely, the conference with the closest geographical center to my residence is the OVC. Sure, the usual players have a good shot to dance, your Murray States, your Austin Peays, etc. But the theme this year in the OVC is "new blood." Morehead State led this league for a good stretch of the season and has had its best season in years. Tennessee state, once 3-9 in the league, has run off six straight wins at the end including a triumph AT Austin Peay! And, the 1-seed is UT-Martin, led by future NBA player Lester Hudson. UT-M has to be considered the slight favorite, but this one feels wide open.
In other news:
I LOCKed Texas after their win last night. A loss at Kansas and a first-round exit in the Big 12 tourney is not enough to knock them out at this point. Longhorns are IN.
Last Night's GOI
--Villanova 77, at Notre Dame 60. Irish are going to have to do it the hard way. They VERY hard way in the Big East tourney.
--at Texas 73, Baylor 57. Bears have a fork in their back. They will need to win the Big 12 tourney.
Tonight's GOI
--Auburn at Alabama. I don't know how many people are paying attention to the Tigers, and they have little shot at an AL bid. But, they have won won 7/8 with the loss to LSU by 7. They beat Tennessee by one, and the other six wins have been by double digits, two of those on the road. Win here, and they will secure the West #2 seed in the SEC, gain a bye, and be a dangerous team in the SEC tourney.
--Florida State at Duke. A whole mess o' conference and NCAA seeding implications.
--Michigan State at Indiana. Sparty can clinch the Big 10 title with a win.
--Ohio State at Iowa. Buckeyes are not Bubble...but they will be if they lose here.
--Utah at New Mexico. Lobos can pull into a tie for the MWC lead with a win, and strengthen their AL case. Utes can clinch a share of the league title.
--Wake Forest at Maryland. Terps need wins to stay Bubble-IN. They have a must win coming up on Sat at Virginia.
--Kansas State at Oklahoma State. K-State needs it much more between these two Bubblers. Both need it, though.
--Cincinnati at South Florida. A loss here would be quite damaging to the smack-on-the-Bubble Bearcats.
--Georgetown at St. John's. Hoyas continue in must-win mode.
Big South. This is the time when normally we pencil "Winthrop" into the NCAA bracket. Not this year. It was a dogfight between Radford and VMI during the regular season with the Highlanders coming out on top. They had won 9 games in a row before losing their season finale at home to Liberty by 7...a team VMI decapitated by 37 not one week earier. Radford and VMI are the faves, but beware aforementioned Liberty (#3 seed) and familiar Winthrop, a team that has won five straight.
Horizon. Bubbleland is praying Butler comes through this bracket. And, while they will have the advantage playing at home if they win, there are plenty of worthy challengers. Cleveland State nearly missed getting them in Hinkle last weekend. UW-Green Bay (who beat Butler this season) and Wright State are also worthy challengers. UW-Milwaukee and even Loyola-Chi nipped the Bulldogs in the regular season. Butler is the clear favorite, but do not be suprised if one of the other quality teams in the Horizon gets through. And Bubbleworld will groan, because Butler will nab an AL bid if they lose.
Ohio Valley. While I follow the Sun Belt more closely, the conference with the closest geographical center to my residence is the OVC. Sure, the usual players have a good shot to dance, your Murray States, your Austin Peays, etc. But the theme this year in the OVC is "new blood." Morehead State led this league for a good stretch of the season and has had its best season in years. Tennessee state, once 3-9 in the league, has run off six straight wins at the end including a triumph AT Austin Peay! And, the 1-seed is UT-Martin, led by future NBA player Lester Hudson. UT-M has to be considered the slight favorite, but this one feels wide open.
In other news:
I LOCKed Texas after their win last night. A loss at Kansas and a first-round exit in the Big 12 tourney is not enough to knock them out at this point. Longhorns are IN.
Last Night's GOI
--Villanova 77, at Notre Dame 60. Irish are going to have to do it the hard way. They VERY hard way in the Big East tourney.
--at Texas 73, Baylor 57. Bears have a fork in their back. They will need to win the Big 12 tourney.
Tonight's GOI
--Auburn at Alabama. I don't know how many people are paying attention to the Tigers, and they have little shot at an AL bid. But, they have won won 7/8 with the loss to LSU by 7. They beat Tennessee by one, and the other six wins have been by double digits, two of those on the road. Win here, and they will secure the West #2 seed in the SEC, gain a bye, and be a dangerous team in the SEC tourney.
--Florida State at Duke. A whole mess o' conference and NCAA seeding implications.
--Michigan State at Indiana. Sparty can clinch the Big 10 title with a win.
--Ohio State at Iowa. Buckeyes are not Bubble...but they will be if they lose here.
--Utah at New Mexico. Lobos can pull into a tie for the MWC lead with a win, and strengthen their AL case. Utes can clinch a share of the league title.
--Wake Forest at Maryland. Terps need wins to stay Bubble-IN. They have a must win coming up on Sat at Virginia.
--Kansas State at Oklahoma State. K-State needs it much more between these two Bubblers. Both need it, though.
--Cincinnati at South Florida. A loss here would be quite damaging to the smack-on-the-Bubble Bearcats.
--Georgetown at St. John's. Hoyas continue in must-win mode.
Monday, March 02, 2009
Bracket 3/2
New bracket is up. The battle for those last few slots shook out like this:
IN: Arizona, Maryland, Penn State, UNLV, Florida, Cincinnati, Providence
OUT: South Carolina, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Michigan, Rhode Island, Kansas State, St. Mary's, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Temple, New Mexico, UAB
I think that's most if not all of the teams that I considered for more than a second or two.
The One Stop Shop has also been updated to reflect clinched seeds, and several conference tourney brackets are filled are ready to go! The Horizon, Big South, and OVC start tomorrow!
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (9): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Providence
ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
Big Ten (7): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State
Pac-10 (5): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona
SEC (3): LSU, Tennessee, Florida
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, UNLV
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Tonight's GOI
--Villanova at Notre Dame. This could get ND right back in the mix. Nova is gunning for a high seed in both the Big East (top 4 gain a double-bye) and NCAA tourneys.
--Baylor at Texas. Bears need a monster finish starting right now.
IN: Arizona, Maryland, Penn State, UNLV, Florida, Cincinnati, Providence
OUT: South Carolina, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Michigan, Rhode Island, Kansas State, St. Mary's, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Temple, New Mexico, UAB
I think that's most if not all of the teams that I considered for more than a second or two.
The One Stop Shop has also been updated to reflect clinched seeds, and several conference tourney brackets are filled are ready to go! The Horizon, Big South, and OVC start tomorrow!
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (9): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Providence
ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
Big Ten (7): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State
Pac-10 (5): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona
SEC (3): LSU, Tennessee, Florida
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, UNLV
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Tonight's GOI
--Villanova at Notre Dame. This could get ND right back in the mix. Nova is gunning for a high seed in both the Big East (top 4 gain a double-bye) and NCAA tourneys.
--Baylor at Texas. Bears need a monster finish starting right now.
Sunday, March 01, 2009
More LOCKS
After Saturday, I have LOCKed Purdue, Florida State, and Wake Forest in the Lockbox. I downgraded Ohio State from black (near lock) to blue (win games they "should").
The OSS has also been updated. I'll do a bit more work tonight after some of today's games sort out some more seeding.
The OSS has also been updated. I'll do a bit more work tonight after some of today's games sort out some more seeding.
Friday, February 27, 2009
OSS/Weekend Forecast 2/27-3/1
The One Stop Shop is up and running. I have already seeded teams who have clinched seeds in their conference tournies. There may be more and the seeding will be sorting out at a high rate of speed over the next week.
The OSS gives you all 30 conference tourney brackets in one place. Enjoy.
The Lockbox has also been updated. A few teams have been LOCKed and there are a number that will achieve that status with a win this weekend. I added:
WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Siena at Niagara. Saints have an outside shot at an AL. They cannot afford multiple losses though.
Saturday
--Cleveland State at Butler. Bulldogs win the regular season title and #1 with a win.
--Utah at BYU. Utah is approaching bulletproof. A BYU win would put them in excellent shape.
--UCLA at Cal. Seeding and Pac-10 implications.
--Notre Dame at UConn. Irish would have to be taken very seriously with a win here.
--Illinois State at Creighton. Jays are an outsider for an AL, but they can only afford a loss in the conference title game to stay alive.
--Temple at Dayton. Both must win to stay alive for A10 crown. And, Dayton needs to win to stay off the Bubble. Temple is a long shot for an AL, but a win here could help their cause.
--Clemson at Florida State. Seeding battle.
--Michigan State at Illinois. Illini must win to keep Big 10 titles hope alive.
--Nebraska at Kansas State. Must win for Cats.
--WKU at Middle Tennessee. A Topper win wins the reg season title and the 1 seed, but it's a road game against a bitter rival who would love to spoil it. And I will be there.
--LSU at Kentucky. Cats need a big win and this would qualify.
--Utah State at Nevada. Tough roadie that the Aggies cannot afford to lose in case they need the AL bid.
--Texas at Oklahoma State. Cowboys need it more.
--North Dakota State at Oral Roberts. An NDSU win takes the Summit league. An ORU win creates a tie at the top that will go deep into the tie-breaker rules (season split and both teams split with #3 Oakland).
--Ohio State at Purdue. Mostly seeding, although tOSU needs another win or two to feel totally safe.
--Southern Cal at Stanford. Trojans are nearing must-win territory.
--Morehead State at UT-Martin. A UT-M win takes all the OVC marbles. A MSU win makes for a train wreck at the top of the league.
--Georgetown at Villanova. Hoyas are in desperation mode; Nova is angling for a high seed.
--South Carolina at Vanderbilt. Gamecocks have their nose (beak) in front in the East and need to stay there if they want an AL bid.
--Duke at Virginia Tech. Hokies are playing for their lives.
--Arizona at Washington. Huskies lead the Pac-10 by a game while Zona still needs a win or two to feel solid.
--Arizona State at Washington State. Tough game for the Devils against the emerging Cougars.
Sunday
--Rhode Island at Duquesne. Rams have poked their heads into the AL picture.
--Siena at Canisius. See Siena at Niagara above.
--Tennessee at Florida. Both need a strong finish to feel solid and this game to stay in the SEC East race.
--Missouri at Kansas. The winner has the inside track on a 2 seed.
--Marquette at Louisville. Cards are tied with UConn in the loss column. Eagles try to press on without James.
--Maryland at NC State. Terps cannot afford to lose this one.
--Providence at Rutgers. Friars have to back up that big win over Pitt with a roadie.
--Cincinnati at Syracuse. A win here would put the Bearcats in good shape.
--Michigan at Wisconsin. Both need it.
The OSS gives you all 30 conference tourney brackets in one place. Enjoy.
The Lockbox has also been updated. A few teams have been LOCKed and there are a number that will achieve that status with a win this weekend. I added:
WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Siena at Niagara. Saints have an outside shot at an AL. They cannot afford multiple losses though.
Saturday
--Cleveland State at Butler. Bulldogs win the regular season title and #1 with a win.
--Utah at BYU. Utah is approaching bulletproof. A BYU win would put them in excellent shape.
--UCLA at Cal. Seeding and Pac-10 implications.
--Notre Dame at UConn. Irish would have to be taken very seriously with a win here.
--Illinois State at Creighton. Jays are an outsider for an AL, but they can only afford a loss in the conference title game to stay alive.
--Temple at Dayton. Both must win to stay alive for A10 crown. And, Dayton needs to win to stay off the Bubble. Temple is a long shot for an AL, but a win here could help their cause.
--Clemson at Florida State. Seeding battle.
--Michigan State at Illinois. Illini must win to keep Big 10 titles hope alive.
--Nebraska at Kansas State. Must win for Cats.
--WKU at Middle Tennessee. A Topper win wins the reg season title and the 1 seed, but it's a road game against a bitter rival who would love to spoil it. And I will be there.
--LSU at Kentucky. Cats need a big win and this would qualify.
--Utah State at Nevada. Tough roadie that the Aggies cannot afford to lose in case they need the AL bid.
--Texas at Oklahoma State. Cowboys need it more.
--North Dakota State at Oral Roberts. An NDSU win takes the Summit league. An ORU win creates a tie at the top that will go deep into the tie-breaker rules (season split and both teams split with #3 Oakland).
--Ohio State at Purdue. Mostly seeding, although tOSU needs another win or two to feel totally safe.
--Southern Cal at Stanford. Trojans are nearing must-win territory.
--Morehead State at UT-Martin. A UT-M win takes all the OVC marbles. A MSU win makes for a train wreck at the top of the league.
--Georgetown at Villanova. Hoyas are in desperation mode; Nova is angling for a high seed.
--South Carolina at Vanderbilt. Gamecocks have their nose (beak) in front in the East and need to stay there if they want an AL bid.
--Duke at Virginia Tech. Hokies are playing for their lives.
--Arizona at Washington. Huskies lead the Pac-10 by a game while Zona still needs a win or two to feel solid.
--Arizona State at Washington State. Tough game for the Devils against the emerging Cougars.
Sunday
--Rhode Island at Duquesne. Rams have poked their heads into the AL picture.
--Siena at Canisius. See Siena at Niagara above.
--Tennessee at Florida. Both need a strong finish to feel solid and this game to stay in the SEC East race.
--Missouri at Kansas. The winner has the inside track on a 2 seed.
--Marquette at Louisville. Cards are tied with UConn in the loss column. Eagles try to press on without James.
--Maryland at NC State. Terps cannot afford to lose this one.
--Providence at Rutgers. Friars have to back up that big win over Pitt with a roadie.
--Cincinnati at Syracuse. A win here would put the Bearcats in good shape.
--Michigan at Wisconsin. Both need it.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
SCKySSiP Mock Committee IV
This year's version of the SCKySSiP (South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project) will consist of eight members. We do the process mostly over email during the week leading up to Selection Sunday, then meet at Chez Bracketboard for an all-day voting and bracketing bonanza on Saturday, Mar 14. This is a "mock committee"and we are replicating the actual selection process as closely as possible. Again, this is a replication of the process, not a prediction of what the committee will do. There is a big difference. My personal bracket on this site works in analysis of teams and trying to "predict" (although I hate that word) what the committee will do. That's what most bracketologists do. The SCKySSiP actually ACTS OUT the process.
I will update frequently on our results in the next couple of weeks.
Last Night's GOI
--Virginia Tech 80, at Clemson 77. Hokies land a big fish at a great time.
--Northwestern 75, at Indiana 53. Cats get one they had to have and ended a 35-game losing streak in Bloomington.
I will update frequently on our results in the next couple of weeks.
Last Night's GOI
--Virginia Tech 80, at Clemson 77. Hokies land a big fish at a great time.
--Northwestern 75, at Indiana 53. Cats get one they had to have and ended a 35-game losing streak in Bloomington.
--UConn 93, at Marquette 82. The real pain for Marquette is that Dominic James is gone for the year.
--Duke 78, at Maryland 67. Terps stay on the Bubble.
-- at Missouri 94, Kansas State 74. Not the kind of showing the Bubbly Cats needed.
--at Rhode Island 93, Dayton 91. Rams are now 10-1 in their last 11 and have to be considered in the AL convo at this stage.
--Duke 78, at Maryland 67. Terps stay on the Bubble.
-- at Missouri 94, Kansas State 74. Not the kind of showing the Bubbly Cats needed.
--at Rhode Island 93, Dayton 91. Rams are now 10-1 in their last 11 and have to be considered in the AL convo at this stage.
--at South Carolina 77, Kentucky 59. Gamecocks take sole possession of SEC East and strengthen their Bubble position. UK remains right on the fence.
--at Utah 70, UNLV 60. UNLV is on the fence right now. Utah is looking very strong down the stretch having won 7 straight.
Tonight's GOI
--Southern Cal at Califoronia. Trojans need to make hay down the stretch.
--West Virgnia at Cincinnati. Bearcats are 0-7 vs RPI top 25.
--Minnesota at Illinois. Gophers would be in great shape with a win here.
--Purdue at Michigan. Blue needs to cash in at crunch time.
--Morehead State at Murray State. Racers must win if they want to stay alive for OVC title.
--Memphis at UAB. If any game is going to put a mark in Memphis' CUSA loss column, it's probably this one.
--Miami-FL at Virginia. Not sure Canes could survive a loss here.
--Arizona State at Washington. Massive impact on a variety of levels.
--West Virgnia at Cincinnati. Bearcats are 0-7 vs RPI top 25.
--Minnesota at Illinois. Gophers would be in great shape with a win here.
--Purdue at Michigan. Blue needs to cash in at crunch time.
--Morehead State at Murray State. Racers must win if they want to stay alive for OVC title.
--Memphis at UAB. If any game is going to put a mark in Memphis' CUSA loss column, it's probably this one.
--Miami-FL at Virginia. Not sure Canes could survive a loss here.
--Arizona State at Washington. Massive impact on a variety of levels.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Lockbox Update
Lockbox has been updated. I added these teams as LOCKS:
Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette
Lockbox updates will happen much more frequently from here on in as teams sort themselves out down the stretch.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--27 teams are LOCKS or listed in black. The black teams could miss, but at this stage it would be extremely surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.
--I have 7 other teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but still have a little work to do. Of these 34 black and blue teams, 11 are conference leaders. That means 23 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 11 slots right now. That's the same last week. This will shrink over the coming days, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.
Last Night's GOI
--at Boston College 72, Florida State 67. Eagles are in nice shape now. They clinched .500 in the ACC and have two winnable games left.
--at LSU 81, Florida 75. Gators would be wise to win 2/3 here at the end.
--Texas A&M 57, at Nebraska 55. Aggies committed absolute theft at Nebraska. They trailed by 18 on two different occasions in the 2nd half, but a furious late rally capped by a 3-pt buzzer beater killed the Huskers and keeps the Aggies on the good side of the Bubble.
--at Ohio State 73, Penn State 59. Buckeyes are in good position. Penn State remains right smack on the Bubble.
--at Providence 81, Pitt 73. Teams high in popularity polls falter on command. Friars have new life.
--BYU 69, at San Diego State 59. 2nd half demolition by the Cougars.
--Syracuse 87, at St. John's 58. Orange calm the Storm--both the Johnnies and their own.
Tonight's GOI
--Virginia Tech at Clemson. Hokies need to make some hay late.
--Northwestern at Indiana. Cats probably need to win out or make a deep tourney run at this stage.
--UConn at Marquette. 2/3 of the 2-loss Big East teams.
--Duke at Maryland. Terps made a huge jump by beating UNC and they owe Duke for an absolute embarrassment in Cameron earlier in the season.
--Kansas State at Missouri. K-State is very much alive, but they need some beefy wins.
--Dayton at Rhode Island. URI has played well as of late. Flyers will need a good game to get a win in this roadie.
--Kentucky at South Carolina. HUGE game with massive Bubble and SEC East title implications.
--UNLV at Utah. UNLV needs it a lot more.
And Down the Stretch They Come 2
It is less than 3 weeks until Selection Sunday and there are less than 2 weeks remaining in the regular season. It's time to look at what races are going to the wire and which ones have a Secretariat-like leader (or even over).
In the Winner's Circle
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Radford
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State (NCAT can still tie, but Morgan State won the only regular season meeting)
WCC: Gonzaga
Secretariats
CUSA: Memphis. +3 with two to play.
Ivy: Cornell is up two with four to play.
Patriot: American is +2 with two left.
SEC: LSU is +3 with four left although the East is still a mess.
SoCon: Davidson. Up two with three left.
WAC: Utah State is +3 with three to play.
Front Runners
ACC: UNC is a game in front, but three teams sit one game back.
Am East: Binghamton and Vermont are tied with one to play. The Bearcats swept the Catamounts and will get the one seed if it ends in a tie.
A-Sun: Jacksonville leads by one with two to play, but their last game is at #2 Belmont.
Big 12: Kansas now leads by one game, but OK and Mizzou are just one back.
Big Ten: Michigan State is one up but has games left with Purdue and Illinois.
Big West: Long Beach and CS-Northridge are two games clear of the field in the loss column.
Colonial: VCU leads by one with two to play.
Horizon: Butler leads by one with two home games left.
MAC: Buffalo is one up one on a host of teams.
Mountain West: Utah has surged ahead to take a two game lead with four left.
Northeast: Robert Morris. Two clear with two to play, but their final game is with #2 Mt. St. Mary's. A road loss at St. Francis will set up a season-ending showdown.
Summit: North Dakota State is up one with two to play, but one of those is at #2 ORU.
Sun Belt: WKU and UALR are tied with the Toppers holding the tie-breaker with two games left. Troy is one back.
SWAC: Alabama State leads Jackson State by one game with four left.
Big, Muddy Field
A10: Three to play, three way tie at the top (X, Dayton, Temple) with URI one back.
Big East: UConn, Louisville, Marquette and Pitt are tied at the top.
Missouri Valley: UNI and Creighton are tied with Illinois State one back.
Ohio Valley: UT-Martin and Morehead State lead by one with Murray State and Austin Peay just one back.
Pac-10. Washington and Arizona State are tied with UCLA and Cal one back.
Southland: Five teams are tied or within a game of the lead.
Last Night's GOI
--Louisville 76, at Georgetown 58. Hoyas are going to need a miracle finish now.
--Kansas 87, at Oklahoma 78. Helps KU more than it hurts OK since Blake Griffin sat out.
Tonight's GOI
--Florida State at Boston College. Eagles are Bubble-IN right now and this would put them in nice shape. FSU is fighting for a top 4 seed.
--Florida at LSU. Gators need it more.
--Texas A&M at Nebraska. Aggies must have it.
--Penn State at Ohio State. Buckeyes need to hold serve to keep stress level low. Penn State is right on the fence.
--Pitt at Providence. It's time for the Friars to get busy if they are going dancing.
--BYU at San Diego State. Both need it, but the Aztecs need it more.
--Syracuse at St. John's. Orange need to stem the tide lest they slide onto the Bubble.
In the Winner's Circle
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Radford
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State (NCAT can still tie, but Morgan State won the only regular season meeting)
WCC: Gonzaga
Secretariats
CUSA: Memphis. +3 with two to play.
Ivy: Cornell is up two with four to play.
Patriot: American is +2 with two left.
SEC: LSU is +3 with four left although the East is still a mess.
SoCon: Davidson. Up two with three left.
WAC: Utah State is +3 with three to play.
Front Runners
ACC: UNC is a game in front, but three teams sit one game back.
Am East: Binghamton and Vermont are tied with one to play. The Bearcats swept the Catamounts and will get the one seed if it ends in a tie.
A-Sun: Jacksonville leads by one with two to play, but their last game is at #2 Belmont.
Big 12: Kansas now leads by one game, but OK and Mizzou are just one back.
Big Ten: Michigan State is one up but has games left with Purdue and Illinois.
Big West: Long Beach and CS-Northridge are two games clear of the field in the loss column.
Colonial: VCU leads by one with two to play.
Horizon: Butler leads by one with two home games left.
MAC: Buffalo is one up one on a host of teams.
Mountain West: Utah has surged ahead to take a two game lead with four left.
Northeast: Robert Morris. Two clear with two to play, but their final game is with #2 Mt. St. Mary's. A road loss at St. Francis will set up a season-ending showdown.
Summit: North Dakota State is up one with two to play, but one of those is at #2 ORU.
Sun Belt: WKU and UALR are tied with the Toppers holding the tie-breaker with two games left. Troy is one back.
SWAC: Alabama State leads Jackson State by one game with four left.
Big, Muddy Field
A10: Three to play, three way tie at the top (X, Dayton, Temple) with URI one back.
Big East: UConn, Louisville, Marquette and Pitt are tied at the top.
Missouri Valley: UNI and Creighton are tied with Illinois State one back.
Ohio Valley: UT-Martin and Morehead State lead by one with Murray State and Austin Peay just one back.
Pac-10. Washington and Arizona State are tied with UCLA and Cal one back.
Southland: Five teams are tied or within a game of the lead.
Last Night's GOI
--Louisville 76, at Georgetown 58. Hoyas are going to need a miracle finish now.
--Kansas 87, at Oklahoma 78. Helps KU more than it hurts OK since Blake Griffin sat out.
Tonight's GOI
--Florida State at Boston College. Eagles are Bubble-IN right now and this would put them in nice shape. FSU is fighting for a top 4 seed.
--Florida at LSU. Gators need it more.
--Texas A&M at Nebraska. Aggies must have it.
--Penn State at Ohio State. Buckeyes need to hold serve to keep stress level low. Penn State is right on the fence.
--Pitt at Providence. It's time for the Friars to get busy if they are going dancing.
--BYU at San Diego State. Both need it, but the Aztecs need it more.
--Syracuse at St. John's. Orange need to stem the tide lest they slide onto the Bubble.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Bracket Update 2/23
New bracket is up.
Today, I took teams like UNLV, Maryland, Kentucky, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Maryland over a group that included South Carolina, Southern Cal, San Diego State, Michigan, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, St. Mary's and few others.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College
Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Pac-10 (5): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona
SEC (4): LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, UNLV
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Tonight's GOI
--Louisville at Georgetown. Hoyas are in total desperation mode.
--Kansas at Oklahoma. If KU is going to land a 2-seed, they probably need this one due to their lack of top 25 RPI wins.
Today, I took teams like UNLV, Maryland, Kentucky, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Maryland over a group that included South Carolina, Southern Cal, San Diego State, Michigan, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, St. Mary's and few others.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College
Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Pac-10 (5): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona
SEC (4): LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, UNLV
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Tonight's GOI
--Louisville at Georgetown. Hoyas are in total desperation mode.
--Kansas at Oklahoma. If KU is going to land a 2-seed, they probably need this one due to their lack of top 25 RPI wins.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Weekend Forecast 2/20-22
Tonight's GOI
--at Michigan 74, Minnesota 62. OK, maybe the Gophers are not quite Bubble, but they are getting close. Michigan backs up a tough win at Northwestern with this goodie.
--WKU 78, at UALR 69. Toppers go into a tough road venue and take control of the Sun Belt race having swept UALR and holding a one game lead on Troy.
--Washington at UCLA. UCLA can pull back into a tie for first with defense of their home court.
WEEKEND FORECAST
It's BracketBusters weekend. Click here for the entire schedule.
Saturday
--Louisville at Cincinnati. Bearcats are on the Bubble but a home win here would surely put them on the good side for the time being.
--Marquette at Georgetown. Hoyas have this game and Louisville at home in the next few days and those two will likely tell us a lot about their fate.
--Kansas State at Iowa State. KSU has to avoid any sort of loss, especially one like this.
--Tennessee at Kentucky. Who thought these two would be antsy about their status at this late hour?
--North Carolina at Maryland. Terps need to land a haymaker.
--Boston College at Miami-FL. There are few games with more Bubble ramifications than this one.
--San Diego State at New Mexico. Aztecs are right there but cannot afford any slips.
--Illinois at Ohio State. These two are scratching for a protected seed.
--Baylor at Oklahoma State. Maybe not an elimination game, but it will feel like it.
--Notre Dame at Providence. Ditto.
--Washington at USC. Trojans badly need to hold serve at home after dropping 3 straight roadies.
--Oklahoma at Texas. Horns are perilously close to Bubbledom.
--Texas A&M at Texas Tech. Aggies must have it.
--Memphis at UTEP. Tigers have this one and a game at UAB next.
--BYU at UNLV. Rebels need it more and it's at home so they had better get it.
--Florida State at Virginia Tech. Hokies have lost 4/6 so they need to defend the home court here.
--Radford at VMI. Radford can clinch the Big South title with a win.
Sunday
--Arizona at Arizona State. Both are hot and very much alive for the Pac 10 title.
--Wake Forest at Duke. Both have looked vulnerable lately and the loser is essentially done in the ACC title race.
--Michigan at Iowa. Wolverines need to TCB on the road to consolidate a couple of recent solid wins.
--Wisconsin at Michigan State. A win would move the Badgers off the Bubble.
--Northwestern at Minnesota. Gophers need to defend the home court to stay off the Bubble.
--Villanova at Syracuse. Both competing for a protected seed.
--at Michigan 74, Minnesota 62. OK, maybe the Gophers are not quite Bubble, but they are getting close. Michigan backs up a tough win at Northwestern with this goodie.
--WKU 78, at UALR 69. Toppers go into a tough road venue and take control of the Sun Belt race having swept UALR and holding a one game lead on Troy.
--Washington at UCLA. UCLA can pull back into a tie for first with defense of their home court.
WEEKEND FORECAST
It's BracketBusters weekend. Click here for the entire schedule.
Saturday
--Louisville at Cincinnati. Bearcats are on the Bubble but a home win here would surely put them on the good side for the time being.
--Marquette at Georgetown. Hoyas have this game and Louisville at home in the next few days and those two will likely tell us a lot about their fate.
--Kansas State at Iowa State. KSU has to avoid any sort of loss, especially one like this.
--Tennessee at Kentucky. Who thought these two would be antsy about their status at this late hour?
--North Carolina at Maryland. Terps need to land a haymaker.
--Boston College at Miami-FL. There are few games with more Bubble ramifications than this one.
--San Diego State at New Mexico. Aztecs are right there but cannot afford any slips.
--Illinois at Ohio State. These two are scratching for a protected seed.
--Baylor at Oklahoma State. Maybe not an elimination game, but it will feel like it.
--Notre Dame at Providence. Ditto.
--Washington at USC. Trojans badly need to hold serve at home after dropping 3 straight roadies.
--Oklahoma at Texas. Horns are perilously close to Bubbledom.
--Texas A&M at Texas Tech. Aggies must have it.
--Memphis at UTEP. Tigers have this one and a game at UAB next.
--BYU at UNLV. Rebels need it more and it's at home so they had better get it.
--Florida State at Virginia Tech. Hokies have lost 4/6 so they need to defend the home court here.
--Radford at VMI. Radford can clinch the Big South title with a win.
Sunday
--Arizona at Arizona State. Both are hot and very much alive for the Pac 10 title.
--Wake Forest at Duke. Both have looked vulnerable lately and the loser is essentially done in the ACC title race.
--Michigan at Iowa. Wolverines need to TCB on the road to consolidate a couple of recent solid wins.
--Wisconsin at Michigan State. A win would move the Badgers off the Bubble.
--Northwestern at Minnesota. Gophers need to defend the home court to stay off the Bubble.
--Villanova at Syracuse. Both competing for a protected seed.
GOI 2/19
More later if time permits.
Tonight's GOI
--LSU 72, at Arkansas 69. Tigers dug a huge hole to start the game, then roared back to win a game they could not afford to lose.
--at Florida State 80, Miami-FL 67. Canes are looking like a strong NIT team. 4-8 in conference is going to be hard to overcome at this stage. Not dead, but need a big finish.
--Penn State 38, at Illinois 33. Lions became the first team to win scoring under 40 points in about 11 years. That roughly 107,000 college basketball games. Really (~325 teams x ~30 games each x 11 years).
--at Louisville 94, Providence 76. Friars shot 75% in the first half and only led by two.
--at Mississippi 81, Tennessee 65. Hard to imagine the Vols being left out, but they are trying.
--at Mississippi State 75, South Carolina 70. Gamecocks make an even bigger mess of the SEC picture.
--Oklahoma State 92, at Texas Tech 82. Cowboys win a must win.
--at Virginia 75, Virginia Tech 61. It's generally not a good policy to lose by double digits to the worst team in your league if you are on the Bubble.
--at West Virginia 79, Notre Dame 68. Irish are in the same boat as Miami-FL.
Tonight's GOI
--Minnesota at Michigan. A loss here pushes the Gophers onto the Bubble but would probably make Michigan Bubble-IN.
--WKU at UALR. 2/3 of the Sun Belt's best with huge league championship and conference tourney seeding ramifications.
--Washington at UCLA. UCLA can pull back into a tie for first with defense of their home court.
Tonight's GOI
--LSU 72, at Arkansas 69. Tigers dug a huge hole to start the game, then roared back to win a game they could not afford to lose.
--at Florida State 80, Miami-FL 67. Canes are looking like a strong NIT team. 4-8 in conference is going to be hard to overcome at this stage. Not dead, but need a big finish.
--Penn State 38, at Illinois 33. Lions became the first team to win scoring under 40 points in about 11 years. That roughly 107,000 college basketball games. Really (~325 teams x ~30 games each x 11 years).
--at Louisville 94, Providence 76. Friars shot 75% in the first half and only led by two.
--at Mississippi 81, Tennessee 65. Hard to imagine the Vols being left out, but they are trying.
--at Mississippi State 75, South Carolina 70. Gamecocks make an even bigger mess of the SEC picture.
--Oklahoma State 92, at Texas Tech 82. Cowboys win a must win.
--at Virginia 75, Virginia Tech 61. It's generally not a good policy to lose by double digits to the worst team in your league if you are on the Bubble.
--at West Virginia 79, Notre Dame 68. Irish are in the same boat as Miami-FL.
Tonight's GOI
--Minnesota at Michigan. A loss here pushes the Gophers onto the Bubble but would probably make Michigan Bubble-IN.
--WKU at UALR. 2/3 of the Sun Belt's best with huge league championship and conference tourney seeding ramifications.
--Washington at UCLA. UCLA can pull back into a tie for first with defense of their home court.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
First LOCKS
Lockbox is up.
Four teams are LOCKs today. These teams could lose out and still get in:
North Carolina, Oklahoma, UConn, Pitt
Duh. The point here is that TBB doesn't take LOCKS lightly.
Other notes:
--Texas and Minnesota were downgraded from "near lock" or "projected in."
--South Carolina was downgraded to "bubble-IN" though it was mostly circumstantial and not because they lost.
--Xavier was upgraded to "near lock."
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--25 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.
--I have 8 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 33 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 23 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 11 slots right now. That's down one from last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.
Last Night's GOI
--at BYU 73, New Mexico 62. Cougars strengthen their profile a bit. Lobos are a real long shot now.
--at Clemson 93, Maryland 64. A terrifying second half run crunched the Turtles. MD has UNC and Duke at home in their next two games.
--at Purdue 72, Michigan State 54. A most impressive win by the Boilers keeps them withing a game of Sparty.
--at Vanderbilt 77, Kentucky 64. UK looks to be a classic Bubble team.
Tonight's GOI
--LSU at Arkansas. Tigers need to keep winning due to their appalling non-conference slate.
--Miami-FL at Florida State. Canes have played pretty well, but have lost a lot of close ones. They cannot afford to fall to 4-8 in ACC play.
--Penn State at Illinois. Lions need to land a couple of big fish coming home to keep hope alive.
--Providence at Louisville. Friars are very much alive, but they have to collect some brass to be a viable AL team.
--Tennessee at Mississippi. Vols last at Auburn last time out on the road.
--South Carolina at Mississippi State. Gamecocks have little margin for error.
--Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. Cowboys cannot afford to lose a game like this.
--Virginia Tech at Virginia. Dangerous in-state rivalry game for Bubblish Hokies.
--Notre Dame at West Virginia. Irish need it badly.
Four teams are LOCKs today. These teams could lose out and still get in:
North Carolina, Oklahoma, UConn, Pitt
Duh. The point here is that TBB doesn't take LOCKS lightly.
Other notes:
--Texas and Minnesota were downgraded from "near lock" or "projected in."
--South Carolina was downgraded to "bubble-IN" though it was mostly circumstantial and not because they lost.
--Xavier was upgraded to "near lock."
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--25 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.
--I have 8 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 33 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 23 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 11 slots right now. That's down one from last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.
Last Night's GOI
--at BYU 73, New Mexico 62. Cougars strengthen their profile a bit. Lobos are a real long shot now.
--at Clemson 93, Maryland 64. A terrifying second half run crunched the Turtles. MD has UNC and Duke at home in their next two games.
--at Purdue 72, Michigan State 54. A most impressive win by the Boilers keeps them withing a game of Sparty.
--at Vanderbilt 77, Kentucky 64. UK looks to be a classic Bubble team.
Tonight's GOI
--LSU at Arkansas. Tigers need to keep winning due to their appalling non-conference slate.
--Miami-FL at Florida State. Canes have played pretty well, but have lost a lot of close ones. They cannot afford to fall to 4-8 in ACC play.
--Penn State at Illinois. Lions need to land a couple of big fish coming home to keep hope alive.
--Providence at Louisville. Friars are very much alive, but they have to collect some brass to be a viable AL team.
--Tennessee at Mississippi. Vols last at Auburn last time out on the road.
--South Carolina at Mississippi State. Gamecocks have little margin for error.
--Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. Cowboys cannot afford to lose a game like this.
--Virginia Tech at Virginia. Dangerous in-state rivalry game for Bubblish Hokies.
--Notre Dame at West Virginia. Irish need it badly.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
A Bracket-ful Mind
The WKU College Heights Herald did a feature piece on my bracket obsession, complete with staged photo-op and the cool title, "A Bracket-ful Mind."
Also, congratulations to Siena! They clinched the 1-seed in the MAAC Tourney with a triumph at Iona last night. Niagara is two back with two to play and the Saints swept the Purple Eagles this season. So, there could still be a tie in the standings, but Siena holds the tie-breaker. I think this is the first team to clinch a top tourney seed.
Which reminds me. The One Stop Shop 2009 is very close. The OSS has all 30 conference tourney brackets in a handy tabbed file that I will update very frequently during conference tourney season.
Last Night's GOI
--at Texas A&M 81, Texas 66. Aggies keep their hopes alive while the Horns are now dangerously close to Bubbledom.
--Pitt 76, at UConn 68. Road wins over teams considered to be 1-seed caliber are generally a good thing.
Tonight's GOI
--New Mexico at BYU. On opposite sides of the Bubble (Lobos: bad, Cougars: good), so this one is vital to both.
--Maryland at Clemson. The Terps are far from dead. A big win here would put them right back in the mix.
--Michigan State at Purdue. Boilers will either pull within a game or fall three back and pretty much out of the title race.
--Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Cats got on the good side with a couple of wins last week, but Memorial can be a tough venue. Vandy is down this year, though.
Also, congratulations to Siena! They clinched the 1-seed in the MAAC Tourney with a triumph at Iona last night. Niagara is two back with two to play and the Saints swept the Purple Eagles this season. So, there could still be a tie in the standings, but Siena holds the tie-breaker. I think this is the first team to clinch a top tourney seed.
Which reminds me. The One Stop Shop 2009 is very close. The OSS has all 30 conference tourney brackets in a handy tabbed file that I will update very frequently during conference tourney season.
Last Night's GOI
--at Texas A&M 81, Texas 66. Aggies keep their hopes alive while the Horns are now dangerously close to Bubbledom.
--Pitt 76, at UConn 68. Road wins over teams considered to be 1-seed caliber are generally a good thing.
Tonight's GOI
--New Mexico at BYU. On opposite sides of the Bubble (Lobos: bad, Cougars: good), so this one is vital to both.
--Maryland at Clemson. The Terps are far from dead. A big win here would put them right back in the mix.
--Michigan State at Purdue. Boilers will either pull within a game or fall three back and pretty much out of the title race.
--Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Cats got on the good side with a couple of wins last week, but Memorial can be a tough venue. Vandy is down this year, though.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Bracket Update 2/16
Bracket is up.
There were some tough decisions to be made at the bottom today and a lot of teams in the mix. I opted for these teams
Kentucky, Florida, UNLV, Southern Cal, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Miami-FL
over this group:
San Diego State, Michigan, Kansas State, Georgetown, St. Mary's, Northwestern, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Temple, Providence, Maryland
It's not easy at the bottom right now. It will sort itself out to some degree in the last couple of weeks.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Miami-FL
Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Pac-10 (6): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona, Southern Cal
SEC (5): LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky
Big XII (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, UNLV
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Tonight's GOI
--Pitt at UConn. Titanic game with titanic implications.
--Texas at Texas A&M. Big 12 Bubble Boys.
--East Tenn State at Lipscomb. ETSU is scrapping for a league title (just one back), but Lipscomb has put together three very impressive games in a row.
There were some tough decisions to be made at the bottom today and a lot of teams in the mix. I opted for these teams
Kentucky, Florida, UNLV, Southern Cal, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Miami-FL
over this group:
San Diego State, Michigan, Kansas State, Georgetown, St. Mary's, Northwestern, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Temple, Providence, Maryland
It's not easy at the bottom right now. It will sort itself out to some degree in the last couple of weeks.
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Miami-FL
Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Pac-10 (6): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona, Southern Cal
SEC (5): LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky
Big XII (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, UNLV
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Tonight's GOI
--Pitt at UConn. Titanic game with titanic implications.
--Texas at Texas A&M. Big 12 Bubble Boys.
--East Tenn State at Lipscomb. ETSU is scrapping for a league title (just one back), but Lipscomb has put together three very impressive games in a row.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Weekend Forecast 2/13-15
Last Night's GOI
--at Arizona 83, Southern Cal 76. Don't look now, but Zona has won six straight after a 1-4 startin the Pac-10.
--at Arizona State 74, UCLA 67. There are now six Pac-10 teams within two games of the lead
--Illinois 60, at Northwestern 59. An absolutely crushing defeat as the Illini finished on a 17-2 run to end the game and steal what looked like a sure-fire, big time win for the Cats.
--at Notre Dame 90, Louisville 57. The "Must Be An Error" score of the month if you did not watch the game. ND has a long road back, but this is a start.
--Temple 61, at Saint Joseph's 59. Now there is a three-way tie for first in the loss column in the A10 with the Owls just one back.
--Gonzaga 72, at St. Mary's 70. Gaels are going to have to get Patty Mills back and re-prove themselves or win the WCC Tourney.
WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Villanova at West Virginia. 'Eers try to slow down Nova's NBA-like scoring and WVU certainly does not want to fall to 5-7 in league play.
Saturday
--UCLA at Arizona. Bruins try to avoid a fruitless AZ swing while Cats go for their 7th straight.
--Kentucky at Arkansas. Cats cannot afford a loss here and need to back up that win over Florida.
--Texas A&M at Baylor. HUGE for both of these Big 12 Bubble Boys.
--Utah State at Boise State. Aggies have three tough roadies left: here, a BracketBusters game at St. Mary's, and at Nevada.
--Binghamton at Boston U. 2/3 of the leaders of the AmEast.
--UW-Green Bay at Cleveland State. Good tussle between two of the better Horizon teams.
--Northeastern at George Mason. Patriots must have it lest they fall three back.
--Kansas at Kansas State. Wildcats have won 6 straight while KU looks to bounce back after a loss at Mizzou.
--Virginia Tech at Maryland. Both need, but the Terps are especially desperate.
--Minnesota at Penn State. Lions are going to need a BIG finish.
--Cincinnati at Pitt. Bearcats are trending the right direction and this would give them a signature win.
--UConn at Seton Hall. The Hall have six in a row and get the Huskies at home in their game without Dyson. Keep an eye on this one.
--Georgetown at Syracuse. Hoyas have to finish well to make it IN.
--WKU at Troy. Toppers can get two clear in the Sun Belt East, or Troy can draw into a tie.
--Florida State at Wake Forest. Two teams trending different directions, but the Deacs are at home in this one.
--Ohio State at Wisconsin. Badgers need to protect the home court to preserve their bid. Did you know tOSU has 5 losses...all to top 30 RPI teams, with four of those to top 15 RPI teams?
Sunday
--Southern Cal at Arizona State. Devils are riding high after beating UCLA while USC has dropped two straight.
--Duke at Boston College. Dukies have lost 3/5 and BC has lost two straight. Someone will feel better after this one.
--North Carolina at Miami-FL. The Canes' have 3 OT losses in their last 5 games. That is just wrong on so many levels.
--Michigan at Northwestern. It will be interesting to see what NW'n can do after collapsing at home vs Illinois last night.
--at Arizona 83, Southern Cal 76. Don't look now, but Zona has won six straight after a 1-4 startin the Pac-10.
--at Arizona State 74, UCLA 67. There are now six Pac-10 teams within two games of the lead
--Illinois 60, at Northwestern 59. An absolutely crushing defeat as the Illini finished on a 17-2 run to end the game and steal what looked like a sure-fire, big time win for the Cats.
--at Notre Dame 90, Louisville 57. The "Must Be An Error" score of the month if you did not watch the game. ND has a long road back, but this is a start.
--Temple 61, at Saint Joseph's 59. Now there is a three-way tie for first in the loss column in the A10 with the Owls just one back.
--Gonzaga 72, at St. Mary's 70. Gaels are going to have to get Patty Mills back and re-prove themselves or win the WCC Tourney.
WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Villanova at West Virginia. 'Eers try to slow down Nova's NBA-like scoring and WVU certainly does not want to fall to 5-7 in league play.
Saturday
--UCLA at Arizona. Bruins try to avoid a fruitless AZ swing while Cats go for their 7th straight.
--Kentucky at Arkansas. Cats cannot afford a loss here and need to back up that win over Florida.
--Texas A&M at Baylor. HUGE for both of these Big 12 Bubble Boys.
--Utah State at Boise State. Aggies have three tough roadies left: here, a BracketBusters game at St. Mary's, and at Nevada.
--Binghamton at Boston U. 2/3 of the leaders of the AmEast.
--UW-Green Bay at Cleveland State. Good tussle between two of the better Horizon teams.
--Northeastern at George Mason. Patriots must have it lest they fall three back.
--Kansas at Kansas State. Wildcats have won 6 straight while KU looks to bounce back after a loss at Mizzou.
--Virginia Tech at Maryland. Both need, but the Terps are especially desperate.
--Minnesota at Penn State. Lions are going to need a BIG finish.
--Cincinnati at Pitt. Bearcats are trending the right direction and this would give them a signature win.
--UConn at Seton Hall. The Hall have six in a row and get the Huskies at home in their game without Dyson. Keep an eye on this one.
--Georgetown at Syracuse. Hoyas have to finish well to make it IN.
--WKU at Troy. Toppers can get two clear in the Sun Belt East, or Troy can draw into a tie.
--Florida State at Wake Forest. Two teams trending different directions, but the Deacs are at home in this one.
--Ohio State at Wisconsin. Badgers need to protect the home court to preserve their bid. Did you know tOSU has 5 losses...all to top 30 RPI teams, with four of those to top 15 RPI teams?
Sunday
--Southern Cal at Arizona State. Devils are riding high after beating UCLA while USC has dropped two straight.
--Duke at Boston College. Dukies have lost 3/5 and BC has lost two straight. Someone will feel better after this one.
--North Carolina at Miami-FL. The Canes' have 3 OT losses in their last 5 games. That is just wrong on so many levels.
--Michigan at Northwestern. It will be interesting to see what NW'n can do after collapsing at home vs Illinois last night.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
State of the Sun Belt
East
WKU leads by a game due their recent gutty four-wins-in-8-days stretch. They are off tonight and figure to be heading into second place Troy on Saturday with a lot on the line if the Trojans can handle third-place Middle Tennessee tonight at home. If that holds, Troy will have won nine straight with a chance to gain a tie atop the East with a win over WKU. However, if WKU could take down the Trojans in a tough roadie, the Tops would be two clear in the East.
Elsewhere in the East, keep an eye on FIU. They got 7'0" C Russell Hicks back and 6'10 FR C Freddy Asprilla was an absolute beast before a herniated disk sidelined him. If they get healthy, FIU is a threat in the Belt tourney. Middle Tennessee is predictable underperforming this season and FAU has had an awful year in part due to F Carlos Monroe's absence. He was TBB's preseason POY pick. South Alabama simply cannot win close games (4 of their losses are by a total of 9 points), otherwise they would be in the mix. They will be a dangerous mid-seed, too.
West
UALR is running away with it. They are 4 clear with 6 to play, so they are cruise control. All six of the other West teams are within two games of one another, so it will be a dogfight down the stretch for seeding. North Texas is currently in second by one game over three teams. Denver is 10-2 at home, 0-11 on the road. Enough said. After a nice start, Arkansas State is 2-6 in their last 8 Belt games as the offense just cannot score enough points. UL-Lafayette is also 2-6 in their last 8, despite a couple of extremely talented players in Chris Gradnigo and Travis Bureau. UNO is a gritty bunch that always competes, but usually loses. UL-Monroe is showing signs of life, going 3-2 in their last five after a rough start.
UALR is almost guaranteed one of the three byes. WKU and Troy are in good shape, but a strong finish by MTSU could get them one as well. MTSU needs to win tonight at Troy to harbor real hopes of gaining a bye, however, and that is a tall order these days.
Last Night's GOI
--Oklahoma 78, at Baylor 63. Bears are in trouble. Sooners looking more like a 1-seed every day.
--at UConn 63, Syracuse 49. Huskies keep gaining steam, too.
--at Dayton 71, Xavier 58. Big-time bounce-back from the loss at Charlotte. Quietly, Saint Joseph's take sole possession of first in the A10.
--North Carolina 101, at Duke 87. Death, taxes, and UNC winning a big game in Cameron.
--at Memphis 63, Tulsa 37. CUSA race is essentially over.
--LSU 97, at Mississippi State 94 (2OT). LSU takes firm control in the SEC West.
--at NC State 82, Wake Forest 76. Deacs' recent road troubles continue.
--at Purdue 61, Penn State 47. Lions hopes are dwindling.
--at Utah 67, San Diego State 55. Utes earn a season split and take sole possession of first in the MtWest.
--at Wisconsin 69, Iowa 52. Badgers get one they had to have.
Tonight's GOI
--Southern Cal at Arizona. Pac-10 Bubble magic.
--UCLA at Arizona State. Devils will fall three back of Bruins with a loss. Win, and they are still in the title chase.
--Illinois at Northwestern. Cats need to cash in at home to stay in the convo.
--Louisville at Notre Dame. Irish need to start the resurrection right now.
--Temple at Saint Joseph's. Two pretty good teams being overshadowed by Dayton/Xavier.
--Gonzaga at St. Mary's. Gaels are fighting for their lives without Patty Mills.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Lockbox 2/11
Lockbox is up.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--23 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.
--I have 9 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 32 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 22 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 12 slots right now. That's down one from last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.
Last Night's GOI
--Clemson 87, at Boston College 77. Tigers put up a 52-spot in the 2nd frame and BC remains Bubblicious.
--at Kentucky 68, Florida 65. Jodie Meeks made a ridiculous three with 4 seconds left to give UK a win that bordered on "must."
--Michigan State 54, at Michigan 42. Wolverines were held to 15 first half points on their home court.
--at Texas 99, Oklahoma State 74. Horns break out of their mini-funk in a big way.
--at Villanova 102, Marquette 84. Nova is clicking at the right time and this put a serious dent in Marquette's 2-seed hopes.
Tonight's GOI
--Oklahoma at Baylor. It's desperation time for the Bears and this is a BIG opportunity to cash in.
--Syracuse at UConn. Orange are slipping away from a top 5 seed. This would help in that regard.
--Xavier at Dayton. It would be a good idea for the Flyers to hold serve here given their lack of beefy wins and their recent falter at Charlotte.
--North Carolina at Duke. I'll check to see if this one is on TV.
--Tulsa at Memphis. Tigers can get three clear of everyone with a win here.
--LSU at Mississippi State. Two best SEC West teams.
--Wake Forest at NC State. Deacs need to TCB after recent road losses at Miami-FL and GA Tech.
--Penn State at Purdue. Lions hopes hang by a thread.
--San Diego State at Utah. Two of five MWC teams making a case on the Bubble.
--Iowa at Wisconsin. Badgers have to win the ones like this one.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--23 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.
--I have 9 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 32 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 22 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 12 slots right now. That's down one from last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.
Last Night's GOI
--Clemson 87, at Boston College 77. Tigers put up a 52-spot in the 2nd frame and BC remains Bubblicious.
--at Kentucky 68, Florida 65. Jodie Meeks made a ridiculous three with 4 seconds left to give UK a win that bordered on "must."
--Michigan State 54, at Michigan 42. Wolverines were held to 15 first half points on their home court.
--at Texas 99, Oklahoma State 74. Horns break out of their mini-funk in a big way.
--at Villanova 102, Marquette 84. Nova is clicking at the right time and this put a serious dent in Marquette's 2-seed hopes.
Tonight's GOI
--Oklahoma at Baylor. It's desperation time for the Bears and this is a BIG opportunity to cash in.
--Syracuse at UConn. Orange are slipping away from a top 5 seed. This would help in that regard.
--Xavier at Dayton. It would be a good idea for the Flyers to hold serve here given their lack of beefy wins and their recent falter at Charlotte.
--North Carolina at Duke. I'll check to see if this one is on TV.
--Tulsa at Memphis. Tigers can get three clear of everyone with a win here.
--LSU at Mississippi State. Two best SEC West teams.
--Wake Forest at NC State. Deacs need to TCB after recent road losses at Miami-FL and GA Tech.
--Penn State at Purdue. Lions hopes hang by a thread.
--San Diego State at Utah. Two of five MWC teams making a case on the Bubble.
--Iowa at Wisconsin. Badgers have to win the ones like this one.
And Down the Stretch They Come
It is less than 5 weeks until Selection Sunday and there are less than 4 weeks remaining in the regular season. It's time to look at what races are going to the wire and which ones have a Secretariat-like leader.
Secretariats
SoCon: Davidson. Eat. Their. Dust. They are 3 games clear with 6 to play.
Big Sky: Weber State. They are 2 clear with 6 to play and finish with 4/6 at home including their toughest challenger (Portland St). Not a lock, but it will VERY hard to catch them.
CUSA: Memphis. Two games clear and apparently much better than the rest of the league.
MEAC: Morgan State. They are two clear of everyone and drilled 2nd-place Bethune-Cookman by 34 at B-C. They are also the only MEAC team with an overall winning record.
Northeast: Robert Morris. Three clear with six to play.
Summit: North Dakota State is two clear with just five to play. Only ORU is withing striking distance.
WAC: Utah State is four clear with five to play. It's been domination to this point.
WCC: Gonzaga is two clear of Portland who they swept with six games left.
CUSA: Memphis. Two games clear and apparently much better than the rest of the league.
MEAC: Morgan State. They are two clear of everyone and drilled 2nd-place Bethune-Cookman by 34 at B-C. They are also the only MEAC team with an overall winning record.
Northeast: Robert Morris. Three clear with six to play.
Summit: North Dakota State is two clear with just five to play. Only ORU is withing striking distance.
WAC: Utah State is four clear with five to play. It's been domination to this point.
WCC: Gonzaga is two clear of Portland who they swept with six games left.
Front Runners
ACC: Duke and UNC. These two are a game in front, but four teams sit one game back.
Am East: Should be a nice finish as Boston U (1 game lead), Vermont, and Binghamton have traded punches all season.
A10: Xavier. Definitely the fave, tied with St. Joe's at the moment. Dayton is one back and Temple and Duquesne lurk two back.
A-Sun: East Tenn St, Belmont, and Jacksonville have swapped the top spot a number of times already. It will likely be one of these three.Big 12: Oklahoma. Kansas is just one back, Mizzou is two back, but it's the Sooners' to lose.
Big South: VMI and Radford. Tied, and they have been the two best in this league all season. They are +3 with 6 to play.
Big Ten: Michigan State is two games clear in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten.
Big West: Long Beach and CS-Northridge are two games clear of the field.
Colonial: Northeastern is a game up on VCU and 2 up on Mason. It's likely to be one of those three.
Horizon: Butler is a game up on UW-Green Bay who is only one game back. It's unlikely than anyone other than UWGB can catch the Dogs.
Ivy: Princeton is a game up on Cornell, but there are lots o' games left in the Ivy.
MAAC: Siena is two up on Niagara but still must visit the Purple Eagles.Big Ten: Michigan State is two games clear in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten.
Big West: Long Beach and CS-Northridge are two games clear of the field.
Colonial: Northeastern is a game up on VCU and 2 up on Mason. It's likely to be one of those three.
Horizon: Butler is a game up on UW-Green Bay who is only one game back. It's unlikely than anyone other than UWGB can catch the Dogs.
Ivy: Princeton is a game up on Cornell, but there are lots o' games left in the Ivy.
MAC: Buffalo is one up on Miami-OH. Those two have been the top MAC teams all season.
Valley: UNI is 2 clear, but just lost at home to 2nd place Creighton.
Pac-10. UCLA has some challengers, but they have nosed ahead and are the clear favorite.
Patriot: American and Holy Cross are tied and two clear of the field with 6 to play.
Southland: SFA, TAMU-CC, and Sam Houston lead the way and seem to be a cut above the rest.
Sun Belt: WKU, UALR (tied with 2 losses each with WKU holding the tie-breaker), and Troy (3 losses), have the inside track for the tournament byes with Middle Tennessee lurking.
SWAC: Alabama State leads Jackson State by one game with seven left. Any other contender will have to come from way off the pace.
Big, Muddy Field
Big East: UConn, Louisville, Marquette are tied with Pitt one back and Nova two back. Not everyone plays the same schedule and this league is tough, so it's still up for grabs.
Mountain West: The best race going right now. Utah, BYU and UNLV have been in the mix all along, but San Diego State and New Mexico are pushing hard now. It's still wide open.
Ohio Valley: No dominant team and six teams within two games of the lead.
SEC: It's a four-team race in the East and two in the West and any of the six could wind up being the top team in this league.
Mountain West: The best race going right now. Utah, BYU and UNLV have been in the mix all along, but San Diego State and New Mexico are pushing hard now. It's still wide open.
Ohio Valley: No dominant team and six teams within two games of the lead.
SEC: It's a four-team race in the East and two in the West and any of the six could wind up being the top team in this league.
Last Night's GOI
--at Missouri 62, Kansas 60. Tigers knock KU from a first place tie and get a nice resume booster.
--at Pitt 70, West Virginia 59. Pitt stays a game back in Big East, while 'Eers fall to 5-6 in league.
Tonight's GOI
--Clemson at Boston College. Eagles would have to feel good about their position if they hold serve at home here. Tigers need bounce back from that home loss to FSU.
--Florida at Kentucky. UK needs it badly. Gators are no lock, but the Cats cannot afford home losses at this stage.
--Michigan State at Michigan. In-state rivalry alert!
--Oklahoma State at Texas. Bubbly Cowboys take on a Texas need in need of a win themselves.
--Marquette at Villanova. This will tell us a little more about Marquette as a legit 2-seed possibility.
Tonight's GOI
--Clemson at Boston College. Eagles would have to feel good about their position if they hold serve at home here. Tigers need bounce back from that home loss to FSU.
--Florida at Kentucky. UK needs it badly. Gators are no lock, but the Cats cannot afford home losses at this stage.
--Michigan State at Michigan. In-state rivalry alert!
--Oklahoma State at Texas. Bubbly Cowboys take on a Texas need in need of a win themselves.
--Marquette at Villanova. This will tell us a little more about Marquette as a legit 2-seed possibility.
Monday, February 09, 2009
Bracket Update 2/9
Bracket page is up.
There were a slew of teams vying for the final 7 or 8 slots. I took these teams
Dayton, San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Michigan, Arizona, Cincinnati
over these teams:
Kentucky, Miami-FL, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Providence, St. Mary's, Georgetown, UAB, Northwestern, Penn State
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona State, Southern Cal, Arizona
Big XII (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri
ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College
SEC (4): Florida, LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina
Big Ten (7): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Mountain West (4): Utah, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
Tonight's GOI
--Kansas at Missouri. KU is peaking and Missouri is still alive for a nice seed if they can win games like this one.
--West Virginia at Pitt. WVU tries to avoid dipping below .500 in league.
There were a slew of teams vying for the final 7 or 8 slots. I took these teams
Dayton, San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Michigan, Arizona, Cincinnati
over these teams:
Kentucky, Miami-FL, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Providence, St. Mary's, Georgetown, UAB, Northwestern, Penn State
Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona State, Southern Cal, Arizona
Big XII (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri
ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College
SEC (4): Florida, LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina
Big Ten (7): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Mountain West (4): Utah, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
Tonight's GOI
--Kansas at Missouri. KU is peaking and Missouri is still alive for a nice seed if they can win games like this one.
--West Virginia at Pitt. WVU tries to avoid dipping below .500 in league.
Friday, February 06, 2009
Weekend Forecast 2/06
It was a wild week in real work life for me, so I had to skip again yesterday. That's unfortunate, too, because on Wed night, Duke and Wake both went down by 27, which was not exactly expected and I did not get to pontificate on said drubbings. Such is life.
Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Florida State at Clemson. Tigers try to consolidate their destruction of Duke.
--Michigan at UConn. One of the few remaining meaningful non-conference tilts.
--Miami-FL at Duke. Two teams with VERY different feelings about their last outing.
--Cincinnati at Georgetown. Two Big East Bubble Boys.
--Memphis at Gonzaga. Even bigger non-conference game than Michigan/UConn.
--Northwestern at Iowa. This is the kind of game the Cats must win to find their way IN.
--Oklahoma State at Kansas. Cowboys looked destined for Bubble. A win here would loosen the collar a bit.
--Texas at Nebraska. Horns need to stop the bleeding after two straight losses.
--Minnesota at Ohio State. Gophers killed Illinois then got killed by Michigan State. tOSU is getting it in gear. One of the mos interesting games of the weekend.
--Notre Dame at UCLA. Irish are on life support now. They have lost 6 straight and have UCLA and then Louisville.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Two teams fighting for a protected seed.
--Butler at Wright State. The TBB is a big fan of this year's Raiders, who are 14-3 (losses at Wake, at Butler, at Cleveland State) since an 0-6 start. They have the #11 rated Def Eff in all the land. Tough game for Butler.
Sunday
--Purdue at Illinois. Illinois needs it more, as they will likely fall three back of Sparty with a loss.
--Wisconsin at Penn State. Two Big Televen Bubble Boys.
--Boston College at Wake Forest. Both need for different reasons.
Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Florida State at Clemson. Tigers try to consolidate their destruction of Duke.
--Michigan at UConn. One of the few remaining meaningful non-conference tilts.
--Miami-FL at Duke. Two teams with VERY different feelings about their last outing.
--Cincinnati at Georgetown. Two Big East Bubble Boys.
--Memphis at Gonzaga. Even bigger non-conference game than Michigan/UConn.
--Northwestern at Iowa. This is the kind of game the Cats must win to find their way IN.
--Oklahoma State at Kansas. Cowboys looked destined for Bubble. A win here would loosen the collar a bit.
--Texas at Nebraska. Horns need to stop the bleeding after two straight losses.
--Minnesota at Ohio State. Gophers killed Illinois then got killed by Michigan State. tOSU is getting it in gear. One of the mos interesting games of the weekend.
--Notre Dame at UCLA. Irish are on life support now. They have lost 6 straight and have UCLA and then Louisville.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Two teams fighting for a protected seed.
--Butler at Wright State. The TBB is a big fan of this year's Raiders, who are 14-3 (losses at Wake, at Butler, at Cleveland State) since an 0-6 start. They have the #11 rated Def Eff in all the land. Tough game for Butler.
Sunday
--Purdue at Illinois. Illinois needs it more, as they will likely fall three back of Sparty with a loss.
--Wisconsin at Penn State. Two Big Televen Bubble Boys.
--Boston College at Wake Forest. Both need for different reasons.
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
Lockbox 2/4
Lockbox has been updated.
Several teams fell back onto the Bubble this week including Kentucky, California, Baylor, and Georgetown.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--22 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown (example: Cal losing 4/5 including a home loss to Oregon State has taken them from "very safe" to "Bubble" over the last couple of weeks).
--I have 9 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 31 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 21 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 13 slots right now. That's up from 10 slots last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.
Last Night's GOI
--at Florida 97, South Carolina 93. Gators take the SEC East lead and Gamecocks have sent notice that they are a real factor there and in the NCAA convo.
--Mississippi State 66, Kentucky 57. Two of the three longest NCAA streaks are in jeopardy this season (Arizona is #1 at 24 and Kentucky is #3 with 17 in row). Back-to-back home losses and three in a row overall have the Cats reeling.
--at Ohio State 80, Purdue 72 (OT). Boilers fall a game behind Sparty while the Bucks get a big-time resume boost.
Tonight's GOI
--Notre Dame at Cincinnati. Must win for both. Should be intense.
--Duke at Clemson. Clash of the Titans game of the night.
--Wake Forest at Miami-FL. Wake needs this to stay in the ACC and 1-seed race, while Miami-FL is fighting for their NCAA lives.
--Minnesota at Michigan State. A Gopher win could create a 5-way tie in the loss column at the top of the Big Televen.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma. It's a long shot, but this would really shore up the Aggies' profile.
--Villanova at Providence. Friars have been a nice surprise, but they need to beat some of the better Big East teams to find their way in. This would help a lot.
--West Virginia at Syracuse. Both are angling for a top 5 seed.
--Missouri at Texas. See above.
--Southern Cal at UCLA. Don't look now, but the Trojans are just one game out of first and could pull into a tie with UCLA with a win (they would still trail Washington by a game).
--
Several teams fell back onto the Bubble this week including Kentucky, California, Baylor, and Georgetown.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--22 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown (example: Cal losing 4/5 including a home loss to Oregon State has taken them from "very safe" to "Bubble" over the last couple of weeks).
--I have 9 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 31 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 21 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 13 slots right now. That's up from 10 slots last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.
Last Night's GOI
--at Florida 97, South Carolina 93. Gators take the SEC East lead and Gamecocks have sent notice that they are a real factor there and in the NCAA convo.
--Mississippi State 66, Kentucky 57. Two of the three longest NCAA streaks are in jeopardy this season (Arizona is #1 at 24 and Kentucky is #3 with 17 in row). Back-to-back home losses and three in a row overall have the Cats reeling.
--at Ohio State 80, Purdue 72 (OT). Boilers fall a game behind Sparty while the Bucks get a big-time resume boost.
Tonight's GOI
--Notre Dame at Cincinnati. Must win for both. Should be intense.
--Duke at Clemson. Clash of the Titans game of the night.
--Wake Forest at Miami-FL. Wake needs this to stay in the ACC and 1-seed race, while Miami-FL is fighting for their NCAA lives.
--Minnesota at Michigan State. A Gopher win could create a 5-way tie in the loss column at the top of the Big Televen.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma. It's a long shot, but this would really shore up the Aggies' profile.
--Villanova at Providence. Friars have been a nice surprise, but they need to beat some of the better Big East teams to find their way in. This would help a lot.
--West Virginia at Syracuse. Both are angling for a top 5 seed.
--Missouri at Texas. See above.
--Southern Cal at UCLA. Don't look now, but the Trojans are just one game out of first and could pull into a tie with UCLA with a win (they would still trail Washington by a game).
--
Bracketbusters Set
Sometimes real life takes over. That's what has happened the last couple of days. Therefore, I did not get to post my final Buster predictions. However, there has been little mystery as to the big games this year. Here is what ESPN has conjured up for TV games (full list of match ups here):
Feb. 20
VCU at Nevada
Illinois State at Niagara
Feb. 21
George Mason at Creighton
Butler at Davidson
Miami (Ohio) at Evansville
Hofstra at Fairfield
Green Bay at Long Beach State
Liberty at Old Dominion
Boise State at Portland State
Utah State at Saint Mary's
Northern Iowa at Siena
Buffalo at Vermont
Northeastern at Wright State
More on this as we get closer to Buster Day.
Feb. 20
VCU at Nevada
Illinois State at Niagara
Feb. 21
George Mason at Creighton
Butler at Davidson
Miami (Ohio) at Evansville
Hofstra at Fairfield
Green Bay at Long Beach State
Liberty at Old Dominion
Boise State at Portland State
Utah State at Saint Mary's
Northern Iowa at Siena
Buffalo at Vermont
Northeastern at Wright State
More on this as we get closer to Buster Day.
Monday, February 02, 2009
Bracket Update 2/2
Bracket is up.
There are some unfamiliar names knocking on the door of the bracket. In the end, I took more familiar names like Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Southern Cal, Texas A&M and BYU over Providence, Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan, Miami-FL, and St. Mary's. But, there is new blood making a surge toward the bracket.
There were a number of casualties this week. Wisconsin, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, Miami-FL, and Michigan all fell out of the bracket. Georgetown was perilously close, too.
Tonight's GOI
--Kansas at Baylor. Both of these teams have designs on a top 5 seed. KU is in better shape at this stage.
--UConn at Louisville. Big East title and 1-seed implications. BIG ones.
--Pitt at Robert Morris. RMU is 9-1 at home and are winners of nine straight. They have been DESTROYING their conference competition of late. Could be interesting.
--Butler at UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix are also 9-1 at home and have been playing pretty well, too. Another chance for a high seed team to lose tonight.
--
There are some unfamiliar names knocking on the door of the bracket. In the end, I took more familiar names like Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Southern Cal, Texas A&M and BYU over Providence, Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan, Miami-FL, and St. Mary's. But, there is new blood making a surge toward the bracket.
There were a number of casualties this week. Wisconsin, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, Miami-FL, and Michigan all fell out of the bracket. Georgetown was perilously close, too.
Tonight's GOI
--Kansas at Baylor. Both of these teams have designs on a top 5 seed. KU is in better shape at this stage.
--UConn at Louisville. Big East title and 1-seed implications. BIG ones.
--Pitt at Robert Morris. RMU is 9-1 at home and are winners of nine straight. They have been DESTROYING their conference competition of late. Could be interesting.
--Butler at UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix are also 9-1 at home and have been playing pretty well, too. Another chance for a high seed team to lose tonight.
--
Friday, January 30, 2009
Weekend Forecast 1/30-2/1
Last Night's GOI
--at Gonzaga 69, St. Mary's 62. Gaels still have no top 50 RPI wins and only two top 100 wins.
--at Minnesota 59, Illinois 36. Vicious Gopher defense ended a 20-game skid to Illini in a BIG way.
--at Southern Cal 70, Stanford 69. Trojans take a step toward the bracket while Cardinal fall to 3-5 in Pac-10.
--at UCLA 81, California 66. Bruins pull into a tie with Washington (who was clipped at Arizona) for first in the Pac-10.
--at Utah State 72, Nevada 61. Aggies keep clicking along at 19-1.
--Clemson 86, at Virginia Tech 82. This leaves Duke and Wake as the only 1-loss ACC teams.
WEEKEND FORECAST
Saturday
--Washington State at Arizona. Two teams coming off big wins last night. Someone will put together a couple of nice ones.
--Washington at Arizona State. Two teams coming off losses last night. One will be the proud owner of a 2-game skid.
--Virginia Tech at Boston College. BC needs it more.
--Wright State at Cleveland State. Raiders have won 13 of 15, but the Vikings have been pretty tough at home (8-2).
--Providence at UConn. It's a long shot, but a Friar win would lift them to "contender" status.
--VCU at Hofstra. The Pride are riding a 4-game streak including a win over CAA leader Northeastern--a team that just dealt VCU a loss.
--South Carolina at Kentucky. We'll see what the Gamecocks are made of in the next 5 games (4 on the road). UK is stinging from a loss at Ole Miss on Tuesday.
--West Virginia at Louisville. Both playing well as of late...Cards are really coming on.
--Georgetown at Marquette. Hoyas badly need a win, but this is a tall order.
--Austin Peay at Morehead State. Probably the two best teams in the OVC.
--Baylor at Missouri. Two likely NCAA teams jostling for Big XII position.
--Wisconsin at Northwestern. Both need it, but the Badgers are an NCAA mainstay staring a 6-game losing streak in the face if they can't scratch one out here.
--Notre Dame at Pitt. Could be 5 losses in a row for ND if they don't pull the upset here.
--Michigan at Purdue. Wolverines have lost 4/5 and need a win.
--California at Southern California. Bears are cooling, Trojans are warming up.
--Florida at Tennessee. Neither of these teams have comfy profiles.
--Oklahoma State at Texas A&M. Couple of Big XII Bubble Boys.
Sunday
--Saint Joseph's at Dayton. Hawks have won 7 straight while Flyers are 19-2 overall.
--Penn State at Michigan State. Long shot, but this would likely vault the Lions into this week's bracket.
--at Gonzaga 69, St. Mary's 62. Gaels still have no top 50 RPI wins and only two top 100 wins.
--at Minnesota 59, Illinois 36. Vicious Gopher defense ended a 20-game skid to Illini in a BIG way.
--at Southern Cal 70, Stanford 69. Trojans take a step toward the bracket while Cardinal fall to 3-5 in Pac-10.
--at UCLA 81, California 66. Bruins pull into a tie with Washington (who was clipped at Arizona) for first in the Pac-10.
--at Utah State 72, Nevada 61. Aggies keep clicking along at 19-1.
--Clemson 86, at Virginia Tech 82. This leaves Duke and Wake as the only 1-loss ACC teams.
WEEKEND FORECAST
Saturday
--Washington State at Arizona. Two teams coming off big wins last night. Someone will put together a couple of nice ones.
--Washington at Arizona State. Two teams coming off losses last night. One will be the proud owner of a 2-game skid.
--Virginia Tech at Boston College. BC needs it more.
--Wright State at Cleveland State. Raiders have won 13 of 15, but the Vikings have been pretty tough at home (8-2).
--Providence at UConn. It's a long shot, but a Friar win would lift them to "contender" status.
--VCU at Hofstra. The Pride are riding a 4-game streak including a win over CAA leader Northeastern--a team that just dealt VCU a loss.
--South Carolina at Kentucky. We'll see what the Gamecocks are made of in the next 5 games (4 on the road). UK is stinging from a loss at Ole Miss on Tuesday.
--West Virginia at Louisville. Both playing well as of late...Cards are really coming on.
--Georgetown at Marquette. Hoyas badly need a win, but this is a tall order.
--Austin Peay at Morehead State. Probably the two best teams in the OVC.
--Baylor at Missouri. Two likely NCAA teams jostling for Big XII position.
--Wisconsin at Northwestern. Both need it, but the Badgers are an NCAA mainstay staring a 6-game losing streak in the face if they can't scratch one out here.
--Notre Dame at Pitt. Could be 5 losses in a row for ND if they don't pull the upset here.
--Michigan at Purdue. Wolverines have lost 4/5 and need a win.
--California at Southern California. Bears are cooling, Trojans are warming up.
--Florida at Tennessee. Neither of these teams have comfy profiles.
--Oklahoma State at Texas A&M. Couple of Big XII Bubble Boys.
Sunday
--Saint Joseph's at Dayton. Hawks have won 7 straight while Flyers are 19-2 overall.
--Penn State at Michigan State. Long shot, but this would likely vault the Lions into this week's bracket.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
BracketBusters 5
Buster update is up.
Marquee match ups would likely be something resembling:
Butler at St. Mary's
Utah State at Davidson
Miami-OH at Siena
Northeastern at Creighton
Last Night's GOI
--at Cincinnati 65, Georgetown 57. Hoyas are heading to Bubbletown on the express train.
--North Carolina 80, at Florida State 77. No win, but the 'Noles look like a team that isn't going away.
--American 68, at Navy 67. Eagles get a big conference road pelt.
--Kansas 68, at Nebraska 62. Jayhawks had to work, but the maturation process is coming along.
--at Northern Iowa 59, Illinois State 55. Panthers are now TWO games clear of the Valley field.
--at Ohio State 72, Michigan 54. Wolverines also drifting a bit.
--at Providence 100, Syracuse 94. Friars landed their big fish. Now it's time to consolidate and maintain. This team is VERY much alive.
--at Rhode Island 67, Temple 59. Probably not going to happen for the Owls.
--LSU 79, at Tennessee 73. Tigers are making their case, but that OOC schedule is going to be a millstone.
--at Villanova 67, Pitt 57. Nova also collects their signature win.
--at Wake Forest 70, Duke 68. Wake defends the home court and strengthens its claim for a 1-seed.
Tonight's GOI
--St. Mary's at Gonzaga. Gaels have rolled up a ton of wins, but no huge ones. This would count.
--Illinois at Minnesota. Tough one for the Illini, but they need it stay within one game of Sparty.
--Stanford at Southern Cal. These two look like classic Bubble boys at this stage.
--California at UCLA. Both in the mix for Pac-10 supremacy and currently one game back of Washington.
--Nevada at Utah State. Pack are coming around, but USU is 18-1 and undefeated at home for a reason.
--Clemson at Virginia Tech. Note that VT is ahead of Clemson in the ACC standings right now.
Marquee match ups would likely be something resembling:
Butler at St. Mary's
Utah State at Davidson
Miami-OH at Siena
Northeastern at Creighton
Last Night's GOI
--at Cincinnati 65, Georgetown 57. Hoyas are heading to Bubbletown on the express train.
--North Carolina 80, at Florida State 77. No win, but the 'Noles look like a team that isn't going away.
--American 68, at Navy 67. Eagles get a big conference road pelt.
--Kansas 68, at Nebraska 62. Jayhawks had to work, but the maturation process is coming along.
--at Northern Iowa 59, Illinois State 55. Panthers are now TWO games clear of the Valley field.
--at Ohio State 72, Michigan 54. Wolverines also drifting a bit.
--at Providence 100, Syracuse 94. Friars landed their big fish. Now it's time to consolidate and maintain. This team is VERY much alive.
--at Rhode Island 67, Temple 59. Probably not going to happen for the Owls.
--LSU 79, at Tennessee 73. Tigers are making their case, but that OOC schedule is going to be a millstone.
--at Villanova 67, Pitt 57. Nova also collects their signature win.
--at Wake Forest 70, Duke 68. Wake defends the home court and strengthens its claim for a 1-seed.
Tonight's GOI
--St. Mary's at Gonzaga. Gaels have rolled up a ton of wins, but no huge ones. This would count.
--Illinois at Minnesota. Tough one for the Illini, but they need it stay within one game of Sparty.
--Stanford at Southern Cal. These two look like classic Bubble boys at this stage.
--California at UCLA. Both in the mix for Pac-10 supremacy and currently one game back of Washington.
--Nevada at Utah State. Pack are coming around, but USU is 18-1 and undefeated at home for a reason.
--Clemson at Virginia Tech. Note that VT is ahead of Clemson in the ACC standings right now.
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