Thursday, February 17, 2011

Bracket Update 2/17

Bracket has been updated, as has the Lockbox.

Those last couple of bids are really painful at the moment. Is Michigan State really IN? Southern Miss? I'd like to say "no," but those last couple plus all the teams that were close (Clemson, Oklahoma State, Mississippi, UAB, UTEP, Missouri State, Harvard, VCU, Dayton, Gonzaga, among others) are certainly no better.

Ole Miss is interesting. They will be favored in every game they have left except maybe a home tilt vs Alabama. They are 5-2 in their last 7. A big finish and a win or two in the SEC Tourney could get them home even after their atrocious start in the SEC.

VCU was badly damaged by getting blasted at home by the other two CAA contenders (GMU, ODU) this week. One also wonders how Butler or Cleveland State will look on SelSun if they gallop home and lose in the Horizon Tourney final. The Vikes have a nice RPI, but very little substance in their wins (best win: Valpo, OOC: Kent St). Butler's loss to Y-town State borders on unforgivable. But, a loss to Valpo or CSU in the tourney final would probably put them squarely on the Bubble.

Some of the very top teams will be LOCKED in by winning this weekend. Even 4-5 games losing streaks obviously would not keep Ohio State or a few others out at this point. The LOCKS will start to trickle in this weekend.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Notre Dame, Villanova, UConn, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big 12 (6): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Baylor
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan State
ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State
CUSA (3): Memphis, Southern Miss
Pac 10 (3): , Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--No teams are LOCKS at this point, though that will change as early as next week.
--21 AL teams are listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point.
--I have 4 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.