Pre-Lockbox

This is not a full-on Lockbox, but rather a "pre-Lockbox." This has all the conference leaders (potential automatic bids) along with the at-large teams that seem (to me) nearly certain given their performance thus far. Now, it is still very early, but I would be utterly shocked if any of the 13 at-large teams I put in somehow miss the bracket in March.

The purpose of this pre-Lockbox is to give a sense of how many AL slots are actually out there. I have reasons for choosing these leaders and AL teams, but it's pretty easy to poke holes in my logic at this early stage. The picture will become clearer and clearer as we go along.

Remember, with the expansion to a 68 team bracket, there are now 37 slots for AL teams. So, if these 13 are pretty much certain, the rest of hoops nation is battling for about 24 invitations if they do not win their league's auto bid.

I will put together a full Lockbox soon and an initial bracket sometime before mid-January.

Sunny Opportunities II

The Belt made good on 4/6 games Tuesday night, with Troy picking up its first win of the season on a neutral court vs Western Michigan.

More opportunities await on Wednesday.

--FAMU at FIU
--Oral Roberts vs UALR
--Idaho State vs Troy
--Northern Colorado at UL-Monroe
--Arkansas State at Missouri State

One big one:
--North Texas at LSU

One MASSIVE one:
--Louisville at WKU

Sunny Opportunities

The Sun Belt has a load of chances to finish the non-conference with a flurry over the next couple of days.

Tonight
--UA-Pine Bluff at Denver. Pioneers need all the wins they can get, and UAPB hasn't broken through in the W column to date.
--Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee. It doesn't get much bigger than this for Belt home games.
--Alcorn State at South Alabama. USA also faces a winless SWAC team.
--UL-Lafayette at New Mexico State. Cajuns have already fallen to the Aggies at home this season.
--UALR at Akron. Tough one, but a chance to score a good win here on a neutral court.
--Western Michigan at Troy. Trojans still seeking their first win.

Project Mockingbird 2011

This is pretty much a re-post of last year's call to create your own Mock Selection Committee. Only one other group apart from TBB gave this a shot, with some mixed results. The "Omaha Group" got pretty far into the process, but had to throw in the towel before totally completing the deal. I am hoping Team Omaha can give it a shot again this year.

So, do you want to go beyond the bracket? Want to demystify the selection process? Want to free yourself of parroting the IN/OUT claims of "bracketologists"? Do it yourself. No, do not put 65 teams together yourself. There are a great number of people who already do that pretty well.

Instead, become a recruiter and a facilitator. Don't be an army of one, but a oligarchy of ten (or seven or four...). Wrangle up some friends who 1) love college hoops, 2) have a high tolerance for reading tedious rules and regulations, 3) enjoy voting, 4) REALLY enjoy voting, 5) can devote a lot of time reviewing resumes in February and March, and 6) can block off March 12 and 13 on their calendars.

If you have a group that fits the criteria above, all you need is a meeting place be it physical or virtual (I've participated in "mock" committees that have done both).

TBB will keep you posted on where we are in our sixth version of our own committee (the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project or SCKySSiP [SKISS-up]), but your home grown version can start by reviewing the NCAA Men's Selection Committee Principles and Procedures which is generally referred to as the "selection criteria."

Also, here is a page that has a bunch of List 8 ballots and an S-Curve. More stuff will be posted as the season goes along, but the selection criteria and these docs are the building blocks. I am here to help you answer logistical questions about how to vote, meet, how much time this will take, etc. I can only share my own experience, but I have done it six times, so I might be able to save you some headaches on the front end. More on Mockingbird as the season progresses.

This is the ultimate DIY Project for college hoops junkies. The way we do it is not perfect, but we have learned a lot over the years and there is great value in replicating the process versus guessing what the actual committee will do. Huge difference. This is active learning at its finest.

Pre-Xmas Watch List

Pay attention to these below-the-radar clubs. No need to track the power conferences, as anyone winning will get plenty of watching.

Vermont (7-2). So, the Siena win looks less impressive, but they also won at Quinnipiac (no slouch), and their losses are to UConn and BYU. They currently have a top 50 RPI as well. At-large is a real long shot, but the Catamounts are playing well.

Belmont (6-2). No bad losses, and they have trounced everyone not name Vandy or Tennessee except MTSU, whom the Bruins beat in OT. The efficiency numbers like them, too.

Old Dominion (8-2). Won the Paradise Jam and toting wins over Clemson, Xavier, Richmond and Dayton. Lost at Delaware, but still, the Monarchs are in a strong position.

UCF (7-0). Win over Florida...and everyone they have played.

Cleveland State (10-0). Not the strongest of schedules, but still blemish-free and 2-0 in conference (both road wins).

The Ivy. 8/10 teams are .500 or better with three in the Top 100 RPI at this early stage (Harvard, Princeton, Yale).

Absolute Monarchs

Old Dominion is your Paradise Jam champeen. Nicely done, Monarchs.

Some big games tonight.

--Butler at Siena. Two non-power powerhouses of recent times.
--Duke vs Kansas State. For all the CBE marbles.
--Gonzaga vs Marquette. The consolation CBE match is not bad, either.
--UConn vs Michigan State. Sparty is the favorite in Maui.
--Kentucky vs Washington. NBA score seems likely in this one.

Turkey Brackets

Some more preseason tourney action today. Brackets below.

CBE Classic

Maui Invitaional

Paradise Jam

TBB on Twitter

You can now follow TBB on Twitter if you so desire. There is a permalink to your right as well.

Sun Belt Slate

The Belt has a tough row to hoe tonight.

--Arkansas State vs Belmont. The Bruins are a perennial A-SUN power and the Red Wolves did not look that hot against Missouri State. They need to salvage a win here.
--UAB at Middle Tennessee. The Raiders score a nice home game here, but MTSU looks to be down this year. This would be a big win if they pull it off.
--UL-Lafayette at Creighton. ULL is rebuilding and Creighton is usually very tough at home.
--South Alabama at Southern Miss. USM looks to be up this year and USA is an unknown quantity at this point.

Tonight's GOI
--Utah State at BYU. In-state rivalry alert! Always a big one and often factros into future Bubble discussions.
--Murray State at Mississippi. Racers are the OVC fave and return a good bit from last year's 31-5 club that topped Vanderbilt in the NCAA Tourney's 1st round. It's a different team, but expects to be a very good one.

WKU Moves to 2-0

WKU moved to 2-0 on the season with an easy win over Alabama A&M. The Tops next face Minnesota in the Puerto Rico Shootout on Thursday.

Tonight's GOI
--Stetson at Bethune-Cookman. The Hatters try to consolidate their big road win over Wake.
--Ohio State at Florida. Two teams already thinking about seeding.
--UL-Monroe at Iowa. SD State did it...
--Butler at Louisville. The Cards open up to new YUM! Center. Big test for the Bulldogs.
--Texas Tech at North Texas. Huge home game for the Belt's Mean Green.
--San Diego State at Gonzaga. Bigger for the Aztecs.
--NIT Tip Off

Weekend Forecast

Forecast: tidal wave. Enjoy.

TBB will drill down a bit deeper on the Sun Belt. There are fifteen Belt games this weekend including a whopping 12 tonight. The most interesting ones:

--WKU @ Saint Joseph's. Two of the better non-Power clubs of the 00's. Both have a lot of new faces, but WKU certainly has the experience advantage while SJU gets the home court.

--New Mexico State @ UL-Lafayette. The Cajuns open with a bang, hosting one of the premier non-BCS clubs in the USofA.

--UC-Santa Barbara vs Denver. The Pioneers play three this weekend: this one, Oregon, and North Dakota State (all in Eugene, OR). Some neutral wins would be an indicator that Denver might be more than just a home court hero this season. In Belt play, they rarely win on the road, but rarely lose at home. A couple of neutral wins could signal good things.

--UC-Davis vs FAU. The Owls are just over in Portland, OR, to face UC-D tonight, vs Milwaukee tomorrow, and @Portland tomorrow on Sunday. They have been picked to challenge WKU in the Belt East. If that is true, they should have a shot at two wins out there.

Come on, Belt. Let's get off to a great start.

Hoops on TV

Great reference link for keeping track of tube hoops via Matt Sarz.

First Games of Import

The Games of Import (GOI) are a near-daily occurrence at TBB and this is the first edition. There are four games tonight, so they all get top billing.

Coaches vs Cancer
--UC-Irvine @ Illinois
--Seattle @ Maryland
--Rhode Island @Pittsburgh
--Navy @ Texas

Sun Belt Schedules Preview

You can read lots of preseason predictions of all conferences elsewhere, including the Sun Belt. Since TBB attempts to focus on what is and not what might be, we will look at schedules. This will also give some insight into the challenging world of non-BCS scheduling.

EAST
FIU: host Florida State, Utah Valley, Chattanooga, Jackson State, Bowling Green, Sam Houston, Florida A&M; @Marshall, @Louisville, @Utah Valley. Not great, but pretty good by FIU standards. They get docked for opening with two non-DI teams.

FAU: host American, South Florida, Manhattan; neutral UC-Davis, Milwaukee; @Portland, @Florida, @George Mason, @Mississippi State, @Hofstra, @Siena, @DePaul. FAU should be decent, but these roadies are murder. They play five straight roadies in December. But, they have USF at home and do play some strong teams.

Middle Tennessee. host UAB, Evansville, Furman, Vanderbilt, Tennessee State; neutral Campbell, Samford; @Auburn, @Tennessee, @SIU-Edwardsville, @Belmont, @Evansville. The Raiders have a couple of good home games and a couple of normally winnable roadies. Too bad they are likely down this season.
South Alabama: host Central Michigan, LSU, Houston Baptist, Alcorn State; @Southern Miss, @UAB, @Alabama, @Louisville, @Georgia Southern. Not a lot to get excited about here.

Troy: host UAB, Belmont; neutral Western Michigan, Idaho State; @Utah State, @Alabama, @Georgia State, @UTSA, @Mississippi State, @Arkansas, @Miami-OH. Brutal. As always.

WKU: host Alabama A&M, South Carolina, Southern Illinois, Louisville, Florida Gulf Coast; neutral Minnesota (plus Puerto Rico tip-off); @Saint Joseph's, @Vanderbilt, @Memphis, @Bowling Green, @Murray State. Pretty stacked, especially if the dominoes fall right in Puerto Rico, (North Carolina likely awaits if WKU can beat UMinn).

WEST
Arkansas State: host Alabama State, Savannah State, Lamar; neutral Missouri State; @
Mississippi, @Memphis, @Missouri State, @Georgia. While the home schedule is abysmal, there are a couple of decent, winnable road games for stAte if they are as good as many think.

Denver: host Colorado State, Alcorn State, Utah State, CS-Northridge, Portland, Northern Colorado, Arkansas-Pine Bluff; neutral ND State, UCSB; @Oregon, @Boise State, @Southern Miss, @Wyoming. The Pioneers are Jekyll at home and Hyde on the road. So, it's good news that they play 9/13 non-conference games either at home or on a neutral court.

Louisiana: host New Mexico State, Cleveland State, Lamar, Centenary; @Creighton, @Houston, @McNeese State, @Tulane, @UCF, @New Mexico State. Two games against NMSU is nice, but these roadies will be tough for a team in transition.

North Texas: host Texas Tech, Rice, UT-Arlington, Grambling, Jackson State, Texas State; @Kansas, @Texas State, @Texas Southern, @Sam Houston, @LSU. This is a pretty weak home slate for the defending champs and a team that should be pretty tough. They also scheduled two non-DI games. The Belt needs more from the Mean Green, but it's tough to get NCAA-hopeful teams in your gym when you are dangerous and play in the Sun Belt.

UL-Monroe: host Stephen F. Austin, Centenary, Northern Colorado; neutral Jacksonville State, South Dakota; @Illinois State, @Kent State, @Louisiana Tech, @UTEP. The Warhawks have a new coach and only two contributors from last season return. Given their situation, this is not a bad schedule.

UALR: host Illinois State, LA Tech, Tulsa, Mississippi, St. Bonaventure; neutral Akron, Oral Roberts, Stetson; @SMU, @St. Bonaventure, @Oral Roberts, @Missouri State, @Rice. Meh. But, the Trojans are trying to recover from a couple of subpar years by their standards.

Bracket Bloated

Do I want to continue projecting brackets if this thing swells to 96 teams?

I had decided the answer to that question was a resounding, "NO." But, what we have is a little weight gain, perhaps even borderline obesity with the bracket ballooning to 68 teams. Of course, bloating long ago cemented itself as an American pastime. I wish the bracket would eat more fruits and veggies, get more exercise and slim back down to its once svelte 64 self. If it ever does Cracker Barrel its way to 96, I will refer it to bariatric surgery by a specialist and retire.

All that said, this is a quick reminder of what happens here.

1. No preseason bracket projections. TBB evaluates results, not rosters; criteria, not recruiting; 2010 accomplishments, not those from past seasons.

2. No projections before Jan 1. Teams need to play some games outside of their own gym before any meaningful evaluation can be made. Even then, projections do not mean much until late January.

3. This space is WKU and Sun Belt heavy in November and December.

4. TBB occasionally may or may not do interesting things from now until January. Once we do hit January, the schedule looks something like this:
--Monday: Bracket
--Tues: Bracket Buster Update
--Wed: Lockbox updates
--Thurs: State of the Sun Belt
--Fri: Weekend Forecasts

Sweet 16

Five of the eight remaining match ups in our national championship bracket will pit a Big 6 conference against a non-Big 6 conference. This will keep me very interested.

Day One Recap

First, here is an actual bracket of results.

Second, yesterday yielded the most single day double-digit seed winners in ages (1991). Further, 8 non-BCS teams advanced, fully half of the games yesterday.

There were lots of great moments, but the most shocking to me was seeing Ohio hand a 97-spot on Georgetown. Wow.

Old Dominion's win was not surprising. They have been solid all season. Murray State has been, too, but has always come up short against top competition. Not yesterday.

Day Two awaits.

Bracket Reaction

There is not too much to pick at here. I would grade this a B+ job by this committee. I had Virginia Tech IN over Florida, but those last couple of slots were so close. That's the only team that I missed. So, 64/65 teams, 31 seeded exactly, and 58 within one seed line of actual. Pretty darned close.

There are a couple of seeds that are puzzling.

1. Putting Duke ahead of Syracuse on the S-Curve is nearly indefensible. I get that Duke won both the ACC regular season and tourney. But, that's only enough to beat out West Virginia (and that's even debatable), not Syracuse. Simply look at all the numbers that matter. The Orange have a better profile.

Duke beat ONE top 25 RPI team. Syracuse beat five. Syracuse was 8-1 in true road games, while Duke was 5-5. OOC wins are comparable, but I would take Cuse's wins over Cal, Cornell, Marquette, Memphis, Oakland, Florida, and North Carolina (5 NCAA teams) over Duke's wins over Gonzaga, Arizona State, UConn, Tulsa, Charlotte, and St. John's (1 NCAA team). Again, the Orange clearly have a better profile. Now, again, Duke did win both the ACC regular season and tourney titles.

That makes this team an even bigger puzzler...

2. Temple. I nearly put them at a 2 seed! I thought they were easily a 3 at worst and they land at 5. That's particularly difficult to understand given that the reasoning for Duke over Cuse was "regular season and conference champs." Temple did that, too, in the #7 RPI league. The Owls were #8 RPI; beat Villanova, Siena, Virginia Tech, and Seton Hall out of conference; piled up 12 road wins; had a better SOS than Ohio State, New Mexico, and Purdue; had no sub-100 losses (worst loss at @#82 RPI St. John's); won 10 straight to close the season.

And, that garnered only a 5 seed? Temple earned a protected seed. Period.

Those are the only two major issues to me. Otherwise, I thought this committee did a very good job. They handled the Bubble extremely well. Anyone who is not IN knows exactly why they are at home.

And that is the mark of a good committee.

Final Projection

Final bracket is up. It's a crap shoot for those last 4 or 5 slots. I am taking Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Utah State, and UTEP in my last four. I will not be shocked to see Illinois, Mississippi State, Florida or Seton Hall show up. Even Ole Miss or Rhode Island would not be total stunners. And, I assure you, Cal is not resting easy, either.

Duke and West Virginia are very close for the final #1 seed. I am sticking with Duke because they won both the regular season and tourney titles. They likely will be out West together.

Lockbox has been updated.

SCKySSiP Complete!

We have a few contingencies that could change things, but our work is done. Here is the SCKySSiP mock committee's bracket. Remember, this committee replicated the selection process. We in no way tried to "guess" what the committee will do. Huge difference.

If Duke loses today, West Virginia gets the West #1. If Duke wins, they keep it. New Mexico State knocked out Illinois last night.

Last Four IN: Minnesota, Utah State, UTEP, Virginia Tech

Next Five OUT: Illinois, Florida, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Seton Hall.

VA Tech gets the axe if Miss State beats Kentucky today.

The mock committee worked from 3.30pm until nearly midnight last night. Great fun and a lot of learning took place. The most important lesson is realizing that those last few teams are like picking the prettiest skunk. Anyone who does this will find themselves seeing far less injustice when the bracket comes out. One could take any of our "next five out" and replace any our of our "last few in" and I would not bat an eye.

The Lockbox has been updated. My final projection will be up this afternoon sometime.

The One Stop is up to date as well.