Pseudo-Bubble Boy Breakdown

It is still pretty early to do this, but with conference play getting into full swing this week, it is time to at least look at which teams are feeling pretty good about their profile and non-conference season, and which teams are among the vast crowd of still-hopefuls.

Barring unforeseen collapses, major injuries, most folks would have to be surprised if any of the teams listed below missed.

North Carolina, Duke, Georgetown, Pitt, Marquette, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Tennessee, Memphis

The next group consists of teams that are on the good side right now.

Boston College, Miami-FL, Dayton, Xavier, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Butler, Stanford, Southern Cal, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, St. Mary's

There are too many teams considered Bubble Boys to list. But, if the teams on the above two lists hold serve (10 conferences represented), that makes 18 AL bids are in line to be taken. I know that many folks could make good arguments for teams not on this list and why a few of the teams I have listed should be left off. The point here is that the Bubble is HUGE right now. I am sure that some of these teams will fall off as conference play begins.

To me, the most interesting story lines going into full-on conference play are:
1. The A-14. Could be a BIG year for them if Dayton, Xavier, and URI keep form.
2. The MVC. Right now, the frontrunner is The Drake. Yes, you read that correctly. SIU is struggling a bit and Creighton lost their conference opener at home to Illinois State.
3. The WCC. Gonzaga has a Bubbly non-conference profile and a real, live challenger in St. Mary's.
4. The SEC. So far, it looks like Tennessee, unbeaten but largely unproven teams in Vandy and Ole Miss, and everyone else. SOMEBODY will win these conference games.

Weekend Forecast 12/21-23

Last Night's GOI
--Miami-OH 61, at Illinois 58. Big, big road win for the RedHawks. They have a sack full of solid wins, no bad losses, and a 5-4 record against one of the toughest non-conference schedules out there.
--Oklahoma 72, Gonzaga 68. Sooners are making themselves into a viable AL team with recent wins over The Ark and Zags.
--Pittsburgh 65, Duke 64 (OT). Pitt got it done on a neutral court vs a crowd that was tilted in Duke's favor. Both teams were impressive, but the Panthers were some kind of tough.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--George Mason at FIU. Critical home game for Sun Belt.
--Davidson at NC State. Wolfpack are now up as Davidson continues its torturous non-conference slate.
--Old Dominion at Wintrop. Two tough customers from the non-BCS ranks.
--San Juan Shootout and the Rainbow, Gossner, and Sun Classics are in swing.
Saturday
--SD State at Arizona. Aztecs go fishin' for that signature win.
--VCU at Bradley. Both need it to harbor AL hopes.
--UALR at Creighton. Both have just one loss, but the Jays are killers at home.
--Miami-OH at Kansas. If anyone plays a tougher non-conf slate than Miami-OH, I truly feel for them.
--Georgetown at Memphis. This one should be a doozy.
--Texas vs Michigan State. Only slightly less of a doozy than the above game.
--Illinois vs Missouri. For the first time in a good while, Missouri may have the better team.
--UC-Santa Barbara at North Carolina. Heels are heavily favored of course, but UCSB is one of the better teams that no one is talking about nationally. The Gauchos are 9-1 (Stanford) and have beaten UNLV.
--Nevada at Northern Iowa. Both really need this one. UNI lacks quality games and Nevada has already lost four times.
--Florida at Ohio State. GREAT game...last year. Neither team has proven much of anything this season.
--TX-Arlington at Oklahoma State. The Other Dallas Mavericks have a shot to make more noise here over a struggling Big XII team.
--Florida State at Providence. Perennial Bubble Boys.
--Holy Cross at Siena. Two very good teams that most of the country will not see on TV this year.
--James Madison at Seton Hall. Two teams off to surprisingly good starts.
--WKU at SIU. Egyptian Dogs are very tough at home, but are currently 4-5.
--Stanford vs Texas Tech. Cardinal have just one loss albeit against a weak schedule, while Knight's crew could fall to .500 with another "L."
--Valparaiso at Wisconsin. Crusaders are 9-1 and look for a signature win in the nearly impenetrable Kohl Center.
--Tennessee at Xavier. Another clash of purported titans.
--Clemson vs Mississippi. A combined 17-0.
Sunday
--Las Vegas Class games TBA.

Holiday Schedule

This blog will be in holiday mode for the next week or so. I hope to find pockets of time here and there, but there will be a lot of "Daily Grind" posts and some dead spots from time to time.

This sparse time is also a signal that bracket season is right around the corner. Conference scores are beginning to pop up fairly regulary as most teams are wrapping up the non-conference portion of their schedule during this time of Festivus. Sometime around New Year's, I'll post the season's first bracket.

The RPI still does not mean that much (evidence? Georgetown is #89 while Portland State is #66), but most good teams are moving up the chart. In another 10 days or so, a "non-conference" bracket will at least give us a starting point. Not long after that, TBB will fall into it's normal pattern:

Mondays: Bracket
Tuesdays: BracketBuster updates
Wednesdays: Bubble Boy Breakdown
Thursdays: Wildcard
Friday: Weekend Forecast

Tonight's GOI
--Miami-OH at Illinois. Two teams that have a Bubbly surface at this early stage.
--Gonzaga vs Oklahoma. Sooners are coming off a win over Arkansas, and could put a huge feather in their AL cap by winning here.
--Duke vs Pittsburgh. Maybe you have heard that these two are undefeated and have very low, small numbers next to their names. I think this is on TV, too. Wait, it's Duke! Pre-game on ESPN started at 7 am today!
--Rainbow Classic and San Juan Shootout are in full swing, too.

BracketBusters Standings 12/18

Have a look at the current BracketBusters standings. I will be updating the Buster Page about once per week from now until the pairings are announced on February 11. Games will be played on Feb 22-23.

It is still pretty early to put much stock in the RPI, but that is what I used to list the teams in ascending order.

In other news, TBB always keeps one eye on interesting Home/Away factoids. Last night, the home teams went 34-1. Only Robert Morris was able to snag a road win at Youngstown State.

Last Night's GOI
--at TCU 77, TX-Arlington 74 (OT). It took overtime, but the Other Dallas Mavericks suffered their first "L" of the season.

Tonight's GOI
--Ohio State at Cleveland State. No surprise here if the Vikings prevail.
--Kansas at Georgia Tech. 4-4 Jackets need a shot in the arm and have a huge opportunity here.
--Kentucky at Houston. Cats could fall below .500 nine games into the season. Cougars have just one loss, but have not been tested much.
--Winthrop at Mt. St. Mary's. The Mountaineers have won five straight including three roadies. No rest for the Eagles.
--SIU at Western Michigan. Salukis need to get healed, but the road is a tough place to do it.

Sun Belt Classic Recap

Sun Belt siblings WKU and Middle Tennessee hosted Tennessee and Memphis respectively on Saturday night at the Sommet (soh-MAY) Center in Nashville, Tennessee. The Blue Raiders played Memphis tough for about 15 minutes before the Tigers remembered that they are a junior NBA team and got it going in the second frame. They rolled over an outgunned MT team 65-41.

In the nightcap, the Vols landed several apparent knockout blows to the midsection of WKU, but the Tops got off the mat every time and nearly pulled a huge win out of the fire. But, some late missed free throws and critical turnover with 40 seconds left when trailing by just three let the Vols wriggle away, 88-82. Another near miss by WKU in a string of recent high profile games in recent years left Hilltopper fans with optimism about the team, but a sour feeling in their stomach after letting UT get away. Foul trouble severely hindered WKU throughout the contest and kept their slippery twosome of guards Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton on the bench for long stretches in both halves. Tennessee took advantage during those stretches to build leads. Reserve F/C Brian Williams came up huge with a 16 and 14 double-double.

Tonight's GOI
--TX-Arlington at TCU. Real chance for the Other Dallas Mavericks to grab even more headlines. They are STILL undefeated.

Weekend Forecast 12/14-12/16

Last Night's GOI
--Mississippi 76, Winthrop 71. Rebels remain blemish-free.
--Miami-FL 64, at Mississippi State 58. BIG road pelt for the Canes.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Drake at Iowa. Computers really like the Bulldogs. Hawkeyes are not that good, but this will still be a good check on Drake.
Saturday
--Xavier at Arizona State. X looks to further solidify their AL profile, while ASU looks to tie their win total from last season just nine games into this campaign.
--UAB at Kentucky. Two regular NCAA teams that really need to get it going.
--Oregon at Nebraska. Huskers have been TOUGH at home and could use a signature win. This will be a test for the Ducks.
--Texas Tech at New Mexico. The General vs Stevie,-Shoot-A-Three-Pointer.
--Arkansas at Oklahoma. Both have the look of March Bubble Boys.
--Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh. 'Boys could right the ship with a big win here.
--Missouri State at Utah. Perennial Bubble Boy Bears need this kind of game.
--Tennessee vs WKU. Danger game for Vols, and a huge opportunity for the Toppers to snag a signature win on a neutral court.
--Miami-OH at Wright State. A couple of tough customers that have both played brutal schedules. Both have underwent trial by fire in Nov/Dec, and it will be no surprise if these two fill a couple of bracket lines on SelSun.
--Florida State at Butler. Winning in Hinkle would give the 'Noles some big-time AL cred.
--Louisville vs Purdue. Suddenly thin-rostered Cards are suddenly no favorite vs Boilers.
Sunday
--Ohio at Kansas. Bobcats' chances are slim, but Uncle Mo is with them after winning at Maryland.
--VA Tech at Old Dominion. Two of last year's tourney teams that find themselves in need of a win like this.

Daily Grind

Last Night's GOI

--UMass 83, at Boston College 80. Round and round the Minutemen go, where their at-large profile stops, nobody knows! Maybe IUPUI was an aberration.
--Wisconsin 61, at UW-Milwaukee 39. Bruce Pearl does not live here anymore.
--at Xavier 64, Cincinnati 59. Bearcats were game, but could not quite pull off the upset.

Tonight's GOI

--Winthrop vs Mississippi. As December games go, this one is HUGE for both teams.
--Miami-FL at Mississippi State. 'Canes get to test themselves a bit on the road.

Salukis Bite Back

Last Night's GOI
--at SIU 71, Saint Mary's 56. The Wrasslin' Salukis got back on track with a nice win over the visiting Australia, I mean, SMC. It was the Gaels first blemish of the season. SIU went nuts on the glass, winning the O-Reb battle 18-7 and the overall rebounding struggle 35-23. Those boards helped the Egyptian Dogs get up 15 more FGA's. With SIU's half-court defense, they will win every time at home with those kind of numbers. Actually, they DO win nearly every time at home.

Tonight's GOI
--UMass at Boston College. Win at Syracuse, lose three days later at IUPUI. UMass is tough to predict.
--Wisconsin at UW-Milwaukee. All other factors being equal, this is why I root for the Badgers over most BCS-types: they play on the road at non-power state schools.
--Cincinnati at Xavier. Most would say that the Crosstown Shootout is a "throw out the records" game. Hmmm...I think this year the X is simply a lot better and UC has little chance in this one.

Semester Ends

As you may have noticed, the game slate this week is fairly sparse. It is finals week on campuses across the country.

So, catch you breath and enjoy the lighter slate. A crush of games comes on the weekend. It is only two weeks until Christmas, and that holiday marks the start of bracket projection time here at TBB.

Now, I must grade like mad.

Tonight's GOI
--Saint Mary's at SIU. The Wrasslin' Salukis have struggled a bit of late, losing by 15 points or more in their last three outings. This includes a double-digit beatdown at the hands of Indiana in Carbondale. SIU was 80-3 in their last 83 home games before the IU loss. Still, the Gaels will get a stiff test in this one.

On the Radar 2

Attention! Attention! All personnel...

The Radar List is in need of updating. Some early seasons hopes have faded, and a few others have burned even brighter.

A point of clarification, if teams were expected to be pretty good, there is no need to document them here. We are looking for potential teams that might surprisingly be positioning themselves for at-large consideration.

VETERANS
--Miami-FL (8-0). Canes are still unblemished and are #2 in the RPI, although it is still early for that to mean much. Early wins over VCU and Providence look a little less stellar than first thought, and the overall non-conference slate is weaker than pond water. But, they travel to Mississippi State on Thursday, so that is a decent test. ACC play will tell us if the Canes are for real or this year's version of last year's Clemson.
--Rhode Island (10-1). The Rams are the first team to ten wins, and that includes wins over Providence and a win at Syracuse.
--Baylor (6-1). Bears have neutral wins over Wichita State, Notre Dame, and Winthrop. They did lose at home by three to Washington State, but a loss to the Cougars is no reason to fret.
--Miami-OH (4-3). They stay on because they have a winning record against an absolutely BRUTAL schedule. The RedHawks have beaten Xavier, South Alabama, Mississippi State, and Indiana State. They have lost to USC, Dayton, and Louisville, all by four points or less.
--St. Mary's (6-0). The Gaels are your current #1 RPI team. Wins over Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall, and San Diego State have them in great shape. They are at suddenly struggling Southern Illinois tomorrow night.
--Texas-Arlington (8-0). Oh, we've had our eye on The Other Dallas Mavericks for awhile now. Since the last Radar, they have went 4-0 including a win at Wichita State. Sam Houston is stealing all of the Southland love right now, but UT-A is right there with them. They have big games at TCU and at Oklahoma State coming up.
--Duquesne (6-3). OK, we know that they have lost three straight, but those teams were a combined 16-2 and two were on the road (at West VA, Pitt at home, at Drake). The efficiency numbers agree (top 40 offense and defense). Let's keep the Dukes on for now.
NEW BLIPS ON THE RADAR
--Dayton (7-1). Wins at Miami-OH, at Holy Cross, and at Louisville. That is some impressive road play.
--Drake (6-1). The schedule has been pretty soft, but the efficiency numbers LOVE The Drake (top 25 Off and Def).
LOST SIGNALS
--Seton Hall (7-2). Pirates have lost two of three, including one at Penn State.
--George Mason (7-3). Home losses to East Carolina will destroy your at-large cred. They also dropped one at Kent State recently.
--New Orleans (4-1). You cannot lose to Nicholls State (1-7, their only win) at home and stay on the radar.
--New Mexico (8-2). They failed their only two stiff tests at Mississippi and at New Mexico State.

Weekend Forecast

Tonight
--TX-Arlington at Wichita State. The Other Dallas Mavericks are 5-0 and are a hyphenated team to fear.
Saturday
--Michigan State vs BYU. These two are already thinking about seeding.
--SIU at Charlotte. Salukis have wobbled lately. A win on the road would help steady the ship.
--WKU at Eastern Kentucky. The original Battle of the Bluegrass takes place in Richmond this year. EKU is riding high after coming from 13 down in last 12 mins on the road at OVC power Murray State earlier in the week. WKU scratched out a tough one at home over Nebraska in OT on Wed.
--Kentucky at Indiana. Great old school rivalry.
--George Mason at Kent State. Both are 7-2.
--Arizona vs Illinois. Both have had better teams in recent years, so this is important for the overall resume.
--Dayton at Louisville. Big opportunity for the 6-1 Flyers to snag a snazzy road pelt.
--Marist at UMass. Foxes have won six straight.
--Purdue at Missouri. Both could be Bubble Boys so this one has added meaning.
--Pittsburgh at Washington. Huskies need a big win here lest they fall to 4-4.
--Marquette at Wisconsin. In-state rivalry alert! Also, Chris West alert!
--St. Mary's vs San Diego State. These two are a combined 12-1.
--Davidson at UCLA. The Cats meatgrinder non-conference schedule continues.
Sunday
--California at Kansas State. The blemish-free Bears take on the fightin' Beasleys.
--Boston College at Maryland. Terps find themselves in need of a win.

WKU Wins Fight Club, 69-92 (OT)

Their names were Tyler Durden.

The Toppers and Huskers hooked up in their office basement for an after-work melee apparently to the delight of both clubs. They seemed to enjoy turning it over just for kicks. They liked punishing the rim with hoists from their muscular bodies. They took turns inflicting hard-to-watch basketball pain on one other--the Tops with some effective press work in the first half and Nebraska with some corn-fed 1/2 court D in the second and a healthy dose of their fight champ, Aleks Maric. It resulted in two battered bodies both down for the count of 55 each at the end of regulation. It seems that both teams simply wanted to destroy something beautiful.

But, like Rocky and Apollo Creed (whoops, wrong movie), one of got off the mat as the ref counted in overtime. And, WKU got to play the Rocky role via some rugged inside work from freshman F Steffphon Pettigrew and a giant clutch Threeball from SR guard Tyrone Brazelton.

It was ugly. It was bloody. It was "declared" a victory for WKU. But, no one really "wins" these games. WKU and Nebraska will see each other at the office water cooler tomorrow and nod knowingly at one another. WKU mumble, "Wassup," with their black eye and swollen red/purple/yellow nose. Nebraska will gurgle a low, "Hey," through two chipped teeth, its arm in a sling, and shuffling their left leg.

The first rule of WKU/Nebraska fight club is that you DO NOT talk about WKU/Nebraska fight club. So, I've said too much already and will stop now.

Last Night's GOI
--West Virginia 88, at Auburn 59. Blowout on the road coupled with West VA's stout season efficiency numbers makes me think there is reason for real optimism in Morgantown.
--at Charlotte 75, Davidson 68. I'm not sure Davidson has the chops for an AL bid this year.
--at Drake 79, Iowa State 44. Creighton and SIU, meet your newest challenger.
--Pittsburgh 73, at Duquesne 68. Good win for Pitt. Keep an eye on the Dukes in the A-14.
--Clemson 82, at East Carolina 67. The whole nation is gun-shy regarding Clemson because of last season, but they are rolling right now.
--Georgia Tech 72, at Georgia State 67. Jackets slip by a tricky in-state road game.
--Washington State 51, at Gonzaga 47. Cougars solidify their status as a national threat.
--Iowa 62, at Northern Iowa 55. Big win for the Hawkeyes.
--Syracuse 70, at Virginia 68. GASP! The Orange leave the state before January! And, WIN!
--at Western Kentucky 69, Nebraska 62. See above.
--at Xavier 79, Creighton 66. The X is looking very strong. They have the best stats of any non-power team.

Tonight's GOI
--Valparaiso at Wright State. Big game in the Summit (huh?) League.

Rick Bozich in Bowling Green

Louisville Courier-Journal sportswriter Rick Bozich was the guest speaker at WKU's monthly men's basketball breakfast this morning. He served as the student reporter for the Indiana University school newspaper as a student back in the early 1970s when Robert Montgomery Knight was the youthful head coach at IU, and when Knight was supported by a squirrelly grad assistant named Michael Krzyzewski. Bozich spun yarns about Knight and his time at IU. He talked about WKU Hilltopper hoops a bit, too.

But, he also said something vital to understanding the men's selection process. I have said it. Before me, Jerry Palm has said it. Joe Lunardi says it. Nearly every bracketologist has probably said it only to see folks roll their eyes in disbelief. There is no "conference quota" or favoritism when selecting the last few teams in the bracket. Bozich was in the room with about twenty other sportswriters in a mock selection process last Spring. Of course, playing in a power conference gives a certain team some inherent scheduling and SOS advantages, but if the Big East has seven teams in and the Big Ten only has four, that in NO WAY gives a Big Ten bubble team an advantage over that eighth team in the Big East if their profiles are similar.

Bozich said it as plain as day: conference does not matter, at least in that way. He's right--and it is good to see mainstream media types understand this and communicate this message.

Last Night's GOI

--at Bahston U 79, Hahvahd 72. Crimson tumble back to earth after beating Michigan.

--Michigan State 66, at Bradley 61. Braves led most of the way only to see Sparty scratch it out in the final few minutes. Attendance: 11,597.

--Tennessee 76, at Chattanooga 70. The Mocs had 33 turnovers and shot a paltry 26% from downtown. Slight improvement in either area might have been enough to pull this one out. Attendance: 11,221.

--New Mexico at New Mexico State. In-state rivalry alert! Lobos are off to a much better start (7-1 vs 2-6)

--Holy Cross 71, at Saint Joseph's 66. Good win for the Cross, which has certainly solidified their place as the Patriot League fave.

--Notre Dame 68, Kansas State 59. Big win for ND in the Jimmy V Classic.

--North Carolina 106, at Penn 71. The Heels are pretty good at basketball.

--at Rhode Island 77, Providence 60. The Rams appear to be legit and this is looking like a big year for the A-14.

--Memphis 62, Southern Cal 58 (OT). Memphis made this one very close by shooting 7-18 from the FT line. And, despite what Dickie V says, this had NOTHING to do with USC controlling the pace or slowing down the game. This game was played at a breakneck clip of 81. Great defense? YES. "Controlled pace?" No way.

--at Winthrop 68, Akron 58. Eagles have taken their lumps in tough contests early, but this is a nice win.

Tonight's GOI
--West Virginia at Auburn. 'Eers have real potential to be bubblicious, so a win here means something even at this early stage.
--Davidson at Charlotte. If the Cats have hopes of securing At-Large insurance, they have to win games like this.
--Iowa State at Drake. In-state rivalry alert and attendance watch.
--Pittsburgh at Duquesne. Biggest game of the night.
--Clemson at East Carolina. AW, and ECU is coming off a big win at George Mason. That was a puzzler.
--Georgia Tech at Georgia State. In-state game and AW.
--Washington State at Gonzaga. Two powers at a combined 14-1.
--Iowa at Northern Iowa. In-state rivalry alert and AW.
--Syracuse at Virginia. GASP! The Orange leave the state before January! Surely, there has been an error!
--Nebraska at Western Kentucky. Huskers need to prove themselves on the road and WKU needs to right the wrongs suffered in a tough road loss at Northern Arizona. Also, AW.
--Creighton at Xavier. Tremendous matchup of non-power powers.

End of Semester Vortex

I have been absolutely swamped the past few days with:

1. my band's (Redfoot) CD release show
2. my church's Christmas program
3. class presentations from my students at work
4. our departmental appreciation banquet

More meaty posts are on the way in the near future. I am almost into Winter Break time, which means LOTS of hoops watching and hoops blogging.

Tonight's GOI
--Hahvahd at Bahston U. In-city rivalry alert!
--Michigan State at Bradley. Attendance watch and a HUGE opportunity for the oft-bubblefied Braves.
--Tennessee at Chattanooga. Attendance watch. Come out and support your Mocs!
--New Mexico at New Mexico State. In-state rivalry alert! Lobos are off to a much better start (7-1 vs 2-6)
--Holy Cross at Saint Joseph's. Nice non-conference matchup. HC is coming off its first loss (Dayton).
--Kansas State vs Notre Dame. Two teams with real Bubble Boy potential. Winner will savor this one.
--North Carolina at Penn. Attendance watch. Support the Quakers!
--Providence at Rhode Island. This in-state rivalry alert has not meant this much in a LONG, LONG while.
--Memphis vs Southern Cal. Do you like athletic players of the game of basketball? You do? Hmmm. Might want to give this one a watch.
--Akron at Winthrop. Two of best non-$$$ teams in all the land last season and both figure to be pretty good again.

Weekend Forecast

Last Night's GOI
--at George Mason 85, Drexel 38. I trust Jerry Palm at CollegeRPI.com as much as anyone when it comes to accurate data, but I must admit that I verified this score from a second source. Whoooooooooo doggies. A double up +9 more score in a college hoops game between two teams that expect to be pretty darned good? It was 40-15 at half.
--Gonzaga 70, at Saint Joseph's 65 (OT). Hawks let a big fish get away. There will be many NCAA teams without a road win like this one come March 16. Zags are once again piling up a nice non-conference profile with plenty of meat left.
--at Southern Cal 66, Oklahoma 55. Trojans have been strong since their opening loss to Mercer.
Big 12/Pac 10 Challenge
--Oregon 80, at Kansas State 77 (OT). Beasley got his, but K-State fell short...a scenario that could be frequent against quality competition this season.

Weekend Forecast
Tonight
--Washington State at Baylor. Bears (5-0) can burst onto the national scene with a big home win here.
Saturday
--Providence at Boston College. Old Big East buddies hook up for a meaningful non-conf game.
--Texas Tech at Centenary. Raiders have already lost at Sam Houston. The Gents are probably not as good as the Bearkats, though.
--South Carolina at Clemson. In-state rivalry alert!
--Duke vs Davidson. Tall order for the Wildcats, but a gigantic opportunity.
--Creighton at Drexel. This would have been a lot more interesting if the Dragons had not been chopped into kindling by Mason.
--UConn vs Gonzaga. The Zags look to collect another valuable road (techinically, neutral) pelt on their East Coast trip.
--Michigan at Harvard. Crimson coach Tommy Amaker hosts his old team.
--Dayton at Holy Cross. Crusaders get a decent team on their home court.
--North Carolina at Kentucky. It would appear that this is a total mismatch, but there will be a throng in Rupp to try to help this flailing Kentucky team right the ship.
--New Mexico at Mississippi. These two are a combined 12-0.
--Indiana at SIU. Salukis have been licking their wounds for a few days after USC crushed them into a fine powder. They have been nearly unbeatable in Carbondale for several seasons now.
--Seton Hall at St. Mary's. Two of the seasons nicest early surprises (10-0 combined).
--Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt. Vandy is unblemished and GT is need of a big win.
--Winthrop at West Virginia. Winthrop continues to battle BCS teams in the non-conf.
--Belmont at Xavier. Beware of the ursine ones, XU!
Sunday
--St. John's at Miami-FL. Both are unblemished and the Canes have already handed Providence their only loss.
Big 12/Pac 10 Challenge
--Arizona State at Nebraska. Both are 4-1.
--Kansas at Southern Cal. Pretty fat game for Dec 2.
--Texas at UCLA. Ditto.
--Texas A&M at Arizona. Aggies have looked strong...Zona? Not so much.

Pre-Lockbox

A real, live Lockbox will not be born until about a month from now, but there are a few teams that most folks agree are going to be in the NCAA Tourney this season. If any of these teams miss, pretty much everyone is wrong about them.

ACC: North Carolina, Duke
Big East: Georgetown, Louisville
Big Ten: Michigan State, Indiana
Big 12: Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas
Pac-10: UCLA, Oregon, Washington State
SEC: None
CUSA: Memphis

There are lots of other teams that are probably confident in their position, but we judge teams based on performance here at TBB. The above teams had the weight of preseason expectations and have validated those lofty expectations to some extent on the court. We do not do polls here, but rather judge teams based on their NCAA resume. No team will have a truly meaningful one until about New Year's Day, but the above teams certainly look to be on the right track. Obvious? Yes. But, this illustrates how few teams can feel comfortable at this early stage.

Does everyone expect USC to be in the Dance? Sure. But, with a blowout loss to a bad Mercer team, some rugged sledding in the Pac-10 ahead, and tremendous reliance on a freshman superstar, there is reason to take a wait-and-see approach with the Trojans. Surely Tennessee is comfy? Well, they have a not-that-impressive 2-point win over West Virginia and were ravaged by Texas on a neutral court. I fully expect both of these teams to be there...but I would have said the same thing about Syracuse last year and Louisville the year before that.

Last Night's GOI
--at Arkansas 94, Missouri 91. These two runnin' teams did not disappoint. The pace of this game was a brisk 84.
--UMass 107, at Syracuse 100. Good win for the Minutemen, but realize that the 'Cuse had a Def Eff of 132.4 in this game on their home court! UMass might be pretty good, but a lot of that has to be on the Orange defense.
--at Texas A&M 76, Alabama 63. Bama (along with Syracuse) is on my "no confidence" list.
--Georgetown 66, at Old Dominion 48. This may not be ODU's 2007 NCAA team, but this is still a fairly impressive win by G'town.
Big 10/ACC Challenge
--at Maryland 69, Illinois 61. Illini are going to need more from Brian Randle to be a tourney team.
--Boston College 77, at Michigan 64. BC is turning into one of the more consistent programs in the country.
--at Michigan State 81, NC State 58. Sparty looked more like the Big Televen fave in this one than they have in a few other early games.
--North Carolina 66, at Ohio State 55. Buckeyes were game, but UNC will be ever scarier when Lawson returns.
--at Penn State 66, VA Tech 55. Not a terribly promising start to the season for the Hokies (2-3).

Tonight's GOI
--Drexel at George Mason. The CAA kicks it off right with this tasty match up (both are 5-1).
--Gonzaga at Saint Joseph's. The Hawks' biggest home game of the year. Golden opportunity for a quality non-conference win.
--Oklahoma at Southern Cal. One of those early season games that will make one of these teams much more optimistic about their tourney hopes.
Big 12/Pac 10 Challenge
--Oregon at Kansas State. The Ducks invade Michael Beasley U.

Daily Grind

Last Night's GOI
--Northern Iowa 61, at Iowa State 48. Panthers win this in-state tilt.
--Sam Houston 81, at UW-Milwaukee 77. We will be keeping a close eye on the Bearkats (3-0, with wins over Texas Tech, Fresno State, and now UWM on the road).
Big Ten/ACC Challenge
--at Clemson 61, Purdue 58. Tight game pulled out by K.C. Rivers and the Sunshine Band.
--at Duke 82, Wisconsin 58. Duke is often overhyped, but they looked awfully good last night. Wisconsin? Not so much. The Badgers looked tentative and less physical than usual.
--at Florida State 75, Minnesota 61. Oh, FSU. How you tease every season. The 'Noles are perpetually on the Bubble it seems. Also, Tubby Smith has tasted defeat for the first time as Gopher coach.
--at Indiana 83, Georgia Tech 79. Another tight one goes to the home team (they all did last night).
--at Virginia 94, Northwestern 52. I knew it would be bad, but...wow.

Tonight's GOI
--Missouri at Arkansas. Should be fun time of rip and run hoops.
--UMass at Syracuse. Both were at-large hopefuls that missed last season.
--Alabama at Texas A&M. Bama needs to make a statement other than, "Yes, we are overrated...again."
--Georgetown at Old Dominion. Georgetown won at Ball State and now faces a better non-power conference for on their home court. Kudos to the Hoyas for going into "smaller" teams' gym.
Big 10/ACC Challenge
--Illinois at Maryland.
--Boston College at Michigan.
--NC State at Michigan State
--North Carolina at Ohio State.
--VA Tech at Penn State.

State of the Sun Belt: Early Edition

We will look at the state of Sun Belt about once per month during the season. This seems like a good time given the Belt's 0-4 performance last night. In the preseason, I took an optimists' view of the league: the Belt returned 11/15 of the all-conference team and the bad teams looked to be improved. I should have known that it is always a bad idea to be optimistic about the Belt.

First, the good news: league favorite WKU has lived up to the hype so far. The Toppers are 5-1, losing to Gonzaga on a neutral court, but beating Michigan on an NC. They also pasted perennial OVC power and local rival Murray State by 24. UNO has actually been better than advertised with big road wins at NC State and Tulane. The Privateers have yet to lose. North Texas, last year's NCAA rep, has continued their solid play. South Alabama and UALR have been solid, too. The jury is still out on FIU (1-1) and UL-Lafayette as they have only played two games, but neither has been impressive.

The problem is that the other six teams have not just been bad, they have been horrendous. Most puzzling in UL-Monroe. The Warhawks won the West last year and returned five starters, yet have gone 0-4 to start the season. Granted, those losses are to teams that are a combined 14-2 and all have been on the road, but ULM has not even been close in these games. They play just ONE non-conference home game against a D-I school. That is recipe for failure in a big way and most of these games are money games. FAU (1-5) was a bit of a dark horse pick in the East, but they have yet to play a home game. They lost to Cleveland State on a neutral court and at UMKC last night. Troy is winless vs DI teams and needed OT to beat Paul Quinn. Denver has actually been a little better than expected.

Most disappointing are Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee State. These teams were expected to challenge in their divisions and have simply been terrible. A-State has lost at home to Utah Valley State and have not been competitive in any of their road games. MT has lost home games to San Jose State and Appalachian State, and were absolutely dismantled by Tennessee (109-40!!!) and Belmont (by 23 last night). There is simply too much talent on the Blue Raiders' roster for these ridiculous results.

Granted, many of the struggling teams are playing a lot of road games, but that is part of the problem. Scheduling is tough as a Sun Belt team, but we have to do better than this.

The early read is that WKU, UNO, North Texas, South Alabama, and UALR need to keep it up. The rest need to step it up.

Last Night's GOI
--Davidson 71, at Appalachian State 60. Yeah, they have lost two games early, but make no mistake about who is the heavy favorite in the SoCon. It's the Wildcats.
--Wake Forest 56, at Iowa 47. Some nice reflection on Skip Prosser (RIP) during this broadcast.
--at Holy Cross 62, Ohio 60. Ralph Willard has yet another fine club this year. They have home games against Yale and Dayton this week, then go on the road for five of six games including tests at Saint Joseph's, Siena, and Maryland.

Tonight's GOI
--Northern Iowa at Iowa State. In-state rivalry alert!
--Sam Houston at UW-Milwaukee. The BearKats have beaten Texas Tech and Fresno State at home. Let's see how Sam plays on the road.
Big Ten/ACC Challenge
--Purdue at Clemson. We've seen this fiery start from Clemson before only to see them collapse in a heap, but the Tigers have already possess a road win at Miss State. This is the Boilers' first road game and first real test.
--Wisconsin at Duke. Both unblemished and both have looked strong.
--Minnesota at Florida State. Tubby Smith's first test as Gopher coach.
--Georgia Tech at Indiana. Did you know that 7 of GT's first 8 eight games are away from home?
--Northwestern at Virginia. Cavs are smarting from a recent loss to Seton Hall. This does not look good for the Wildcats.
Sun Belt Slate
--Colorado at Denver. State vs City.
--Troy at Mississippi. Troy: 0-3. Ole Miss: 4-0.
--UALR at Rice. Rice is winless.
--UAB at UL-Lafayette. ULL is winless.
--Alcorn State at UL-Monroe. Both winless.

On the Radar

Even at this early date, there are a few teams that most folks agree are going to the NCAA Tournament: North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, Georgetown, Duke. They consumed their Thanksgiving vittles with little worry about their status on Selection Sunday.

So, what TBB looks for at this early stage are some teams flying a bit under the radar that have reason to hope this season. These are just the teams I find intriguing. Have a suggestion? Send it may way.

--Miami-FL (5-0). Canes have neutral court wins over VCU and Providence, and no losses to date.
--Rhode Island (6-1). Only loss is at BC by 4. No signature wins yet, but URI is likely going to factor into the A-14 race.
--Baylor (5-0). Bears have neutral wins over Wichita State, Notre Dame, and Winthrop.
--Seton Hall (5-0). Yes, the SHU needed OT in home games to beat Monmouth and Robert Morris, but they just waxed Virginia on a neutral court and have yet to lose.
--George Mason (5-1). Wins over Dayton, Kansas State, and South Carolina will likely help the old resume.
--Miami-OH (3-1). Defeated Xavier, South Alabama, and Mississippi State. All three of those teams will win their fair share of games this season.
--New Orleans (3-0). Defeated Northwestern State, NC State, and Tulane...ALL on the road. And, not in some faraway tourney, either. The Privateers have won in opponents' gyms.
--St. Mary's-CA (5-0). The Gaels have yet to leave the friendly confines, but they whacked Oregon by double digits at home. They have Seton Hall coming in next weekend, then they will have 7 of 9 away from home.
--New Mexico (6-0). I have no idea how good the Lobos are, but they are absolutely annihilating inferior teams with staggering consistency. Granted, all have been at home save one (at Colorado), but they do deserve watching...for now.
--Texas-Arlington (4-0). Wins over two decent Belt teams, including one at UALR that is currently the Trojans only loss. They also took out North Texas, who figures to be a pretty good club. Let's keep an eye on the other Mavericks from the Dallas area.
--Duquesne (5-0). No huge wins, but some GAUDY Efficiency ratings. We will know more after they play Pitt and West Virginia the first week of December.

Tonight's GOI
--Davidson at Appalachian State. The biggest conference game of the year to date...and a MAJOR game in the SoCon.
--Wake Forest at Iowa. Big Televen/ACC Challenge gets underway.
--Ohio at Holy Cross. Neither team has a mark in the loss column.

Hoopy Thanksgiving

Sorry for the terribly corny title.

I will be in full Thanksgiving travel mode starting today, so this could be it until Sunday or Monday. At that point, we can probably put together an "at-large watch" board comprised of some teams who have done some early season resume building.

Last Night's GOI
--at St. Mary's 99, Oregon 87. The Gaels led throughout and put up a staggering 61 points in the second half. Attendance: 3,500. Last year's avg: 2,474.
--Missouri 84, Maryland 70. Tigers have made folks take notice in KC...and there is reason to be concerned about the Terps.
--UCLA 68, Michigan State 63. This one will sting Sparty for awhile. They led nearly the entire game before the Bruins dug it out in the waning minutes. A neutral court win over UCLA is the kind of win that makes hay on Selection Sunday.
--Duke 79, Illinois 66. Illini had a good start, but it was all Duke for the last 3/4 of the contest.
--Marquette 91, Oklahoma State 61. Marquette played a stellar game, but it's time for honesty: the Cowboys are not good right now.

Turkey GOI
Wed
--Georgetown at Ball State. No one expects the Fighting Lettermans to win, but we will check attendance here.
--Rhode Island at Boston College. URI is good (5-0). They can show the nation with a win here.
--Louisville at UNLV. Huge home game for the Rebels.
--Michigan vs Butler. The Great Alaska Shootout tips off tonight.
--Duke vs Marquette. For all the Maui marbles.
--Syracuse vs Ohio State. Both have a lot to prove, and can do so in the PNIT.
--Texas A&M vs Washington. Ditto for these two.
Thurs
--Western Kentucky vs Gonzaga. Both have dominated early competition. Zags are a pretty heavy favorite going into this one.
--George Mason vs Kansas State. Both have high hopes and both need to win these kind of games if they have at-large hopes.
--Villanova at UCF. Attendance watch.
Friday
--Florida State at Florida. In-state rivarly alert! Tebow will prove to be too much.
--MASSIVE Early Season Tourney action!
Saturday
--Nebraska at Creighton. In-state rivalry alert!
--New Orleans at Tulane. In-city rivalry alert!
--Nevada at UNLV. In-state rivalry alert!
--More massive tourney action!
Sunday
--Air Force at Washington State. Sludgy pace, beautiful offense.
--Final games of the T-giving tourneys.