One Stop Under Construction

The One Stop Shop houses all 30 conference tourney brackets in one low-tech excel doc. It it under construction, and I'll work through it alphabetically. Brackets through CUSA are updated. I hope to finish the others early next week.

Bubble Breakdown

I dropped Minnesota out of bracket (reflected in the last one and in today's Lockbox). No way a team who lost a significant player and finished 1-6 without him gets in with a 6-9 conference record if today was Selection Sunday.

Monstrous game in Lincoln, Nebraska, tonight. That's right--meaningful Husker Hoops in late February! The Huskers can earn a good win over K-State, put the Wildcats behind them in the standings, and they have an easier finishing schedule than does K-State.

Wisconsin at Michigan. This would be the kind of win to make Michigan a very serious at-large consideration. They have found the Bubble already.

VCU at Drexel. Dragons simply must have it and VCU has a razor-thin margin for error.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Georgetown, Notre Dame, UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big 12 (5): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big Ten (5): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College
Mountain West (4): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State
CUSA (3): UAB, Memphis, Southern Miss
Pac 10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (3): George Mason, Old Dominion, VCU
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--10 teams are LOCKS at this point, and that number will rise pretty rapidly as the last few games play out.
--21 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point.
--I have 4 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment (and it stubbornly staying there). Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket Update 2/23

Bracket has been updated.

Marquette, Gonzaga, VCU, and Southern Miss found their way in at the bottom. Minnesota, Dayton, Butler, Michigan, Nebraska and a few others were close.

Full breakdown and updated Lockbox tomorrow.

First LOCKS

Lockbox has been updated. Butler creeps back in for the first time in a LONG time and fellow non-power perennial Gonzaga is on the verge.

Also, we have our first LOCKS of the season. These teams could lose out and still make it into the bracket: Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, Texas, Pitt, Georgetown. Lots more coming with one more win.

Bracket Update 2/17

Bracket has been updated, as has the Lockbox.

Those last couple of bids are really painful at the moment. Is Michigan State really IN? Southern Miss? I'd like to say "no," but those last couple plus all the teams that were close (Clemson, Oklahoma State, Mississippi, UAB, UTEP, Missouri State, Harvard, VCU, Dayton, Gonzaga, among others) are certainly no better.

Ole Miss is interesting. They will be favored in every game they have left except maybe a home tilt vs Alabama. They are 5-2 in their last 7. A big finish and a win or two in the SEC Tourney could get them home even after their atrocious start in the SEC.

VCU was badly damaged by getting blasted at home by the other two CAA contenders (GMU, ODU) this week. One also wonders how Butler or Cleveland State will look on SelSun if they gallop home and lose in the Horizon Tourney final. The Vikes have a nice RPI, but very little substance in their wins (best win: Valpo, OOC: Kent St). Butler's loss to Y-town State borders on unforgivable. But, a loss to Valpo or CSU in the tourney final would probably put them squarely on the Bubble.

Some of the very top teams will be LOCKED in by winning this weekend. Even 4-5 games losing streaks obviously would not keep Ohio State or a few others out at this point. The LOCKS will start to trickle in this weekend.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Notre Dame, Villanova, UConn, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big 12 (6): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Baylor
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan State
ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State
CUSA (3): Memphis, Southern Miss
Pac 10 (3): , Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--No teams are LOCKS at this point, though that will change as early as next week.
--21 AL teams are listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point.
--I have 4 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Lockbox Update 2/16

Lockbox has been updated. Full bracket and breakdowns tomorrow.

Lockbox Update 2/10

The Lockbox has been updated and the Bubble still stands at a healthy 13 slots. This is a good time to clarify how my bracket projections differ from the Lockbox. The bracket is based upon results as of today (or the day the bracket was created). The Lockbox looks at that, plus the remaining schedule.

For example, I believe UCLA is a near lock to make the tourney. They are 7-1 in their last eight games, have nice wins over BYU and St. John's OOC, and haven't lost to any terrible Pac-10 teams to this point. This does not mean that can't miss (near lock, not LOCK), but it would take a severe turn for the worse given where they are and what they have left. On the other hand, Vanderbilt has a better overall profile than UCLA, but are 4-4 in league and have demonstrated that they can lose to bad SEC teams (South Carolina, Arkansas). Further, their division is a meat grinder, and the 'Dores have lots of heavy lifting left (Kentucky twice, Florida, red hot Alabama, at Georgia). They still have work to do even though if the season ended today, they would likely garner a higher seed than UCLA.

Hence, some teams with weaker profiles than a team like Vandy are listed as near locks, while teams like Vandy or Cincinnati are not.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (10): Pitt, Notre Dame, Villanova, UConn, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati, St. John's
Big 12 (6): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
SEC (6): Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big Ten (5): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State
CUSA (3): UTEP, Memphis, UAB
Pac 10 (3): , Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--No teams are LOCKS at this point, though that will change in a couple of weeks.
--20 AL teams are listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point.
--I have 4 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 13 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket Update 2/08

Bracket is up, and the Lockbox is up to date.

At the bottom, I took Boston College, Richmond, Washington, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Memphis and UAB over a group that included Missouri State, Dayton, Mississippi, Washington State, Michigan State, Harvard, New Mexico, Southern Miss, Marquette, Baylor, Duquesne...well, a bunch. It's very fluid at the bottom.

Full honkin' Bubble breakdown coming tomorrow or Thursday.

Lockbox Update/Thursday GOI

The Lockbox has been updated. Penn State got squeezed out as there has been some shakeup of the conference leaders this week, which affected the number of available AL slots.

Tonight's GOI
--Liberty at Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers have already won at Liberty, so a win here puts the Flames two games back and gives Coastal the tie-breaker, which essentially makes it a 3-game lead with 6 to play.
--Valparaiso at Cleveland State. For sole possession of first in the Horizon, plus Bubble implications.
--FAU at North Texas. The best team in the Sun Belt on the road against the team most people expected to be the best.
--Gonzaga at Portland. Zags are going to need a big, big finish.

Bracket Update 2/1

It's February, which means the Bubble will likely get smaller, not larger as we head toward March.

A new bracket is up. Virginia Tech, George Mason, Colorado State, Richmond, Washington State, and Marquette found their way in over Penn State, UAB, Kansas State, Maryland, Clemson and a smattering of others.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Villanova, UConn, Syracuse, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati, St. John's, Marquette
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State
SEC (6): Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
ACC (5): Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (4): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri
Pac 10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona, Washington State
Mountain West (4): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (3): VCU, Old Dominion, George Mason