I. 13 "TV" Match Ups Set
Well, not exactly thirteen, as two will be on ESPN 360, which is pay-per-view on the internet as I understand it. Still, the eleven games on ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU will come from this list. View the bracket buster page here. Teams in red were selected as participants. After a night to think it over, the teams selected make fairly good sense. Teams with lower RPI's that were selected over higher RPI teams are mostly conference leaders with much better records than the teams above them. That clears up the selection of Western Kentucky, Northern Arizona, Albany, and Kent State. Also, keep in mind that on Sunday when the pairings were made, Ohio was 66 in the RPI which would have put them right in line with most of the teams selected.
The only teams that have real beefs are Manhattan and Bradley. I'm guessing the high amount of MVC teams at the top may have worked against Bradley so that other conferences could get exposure. I am really not sure why Manhattan was passed over in favor of VCU. The CAA already had George Mason and ODU on TV, so it was not a conference exposure issue. Maybe the strength of the CAA carried weight, but Manhattan is a pretty good club with a good RPI that was passed over. Other than that, most of the match ups make pretty good sense. More later, if I have time.
Here's the list of games, roughly in order of "bracket impact."
1. Bucknell at Northern Iowa
2. George Mason at Wichita State
3. Missouri State at Wisconsin-Milwaukee
4. Louisiana Tech at Southern Illinois
5. Akron at Nevada
6. Fresno State at Creighton
7. Marist at Old Dominion
8. Northwestern State at Utah State
9. Buffalo at Iona
10. Northern Arizona at Western Kentucky
11. Samford at Ohio
12. Butler at Kent State
13. Albany at Virginia Commonwealth
II. Last Night's GOI
--at Murray State 59, Samford 38. We now have a clear frontrunner in the OVC.
--at Utah State 63, Hawaii 52. The 'Bows are now 0-6 on the road and counting.
--at Villanova 79, Louisville 73. Cards are now 2-6 in the Big East with lots of tough roadies left. They'll need a monster finish to have a shot at the Dance.
III. Tonight's GOI
--Pitt at UConn. They don't get much bigger than this in conference play.
--Northern Iowa at Creighton. They don't get much bigger than this in conference play.
--Illinois at Wisconsin. They don't get much big...OK, enough.
--Wake Forest at Miami-FL. Must win for both teams.
Tuesday, January 31, 2006
Monday, January 30, 2006
Bracket/Bracket Buster Pairings
I. Tops Dispatch Beleaguered New Orleans, 72-57
You know, I just do not have it in me to talk about New Orleans' shortcomings as a team. Some considered them the second best team in the Sun Belt West over the summer, but Hurricane Katrina, a season-ending injury for All-Sun Belt first team PG Bo McCalebb, and the loss of their leading scorer this season just a couple of weeks ago has turned this group into a gritty, tough, admirable club that has little chance of winning more than two or three more games. UNO, my prayers are with you. I hope next season brings better things.
After a lackluster first half, the Tops combusted on a 28-7 run at the start of the second half. The Topper bench played the last eight minutes of the game and reserves Butch Jointer and Daniel Emerson played valuable minutes, which bodes well for the stretch run. Superstar swingman Courtney Lee took a horrible spill at the 12-minute mark and did not return citing a hip contusion. Hopefully, he will be OK. The Tops travel to Florida International tomorrow night and then will enjoy (endure?) a nine-day layoff before their next game on February 9 at Denver.
II. Bracket Buster
The Tops are right on the bubble for a TV game. They did indeed secure a broadcast from ESPN, but we do not know if it will be on TV or on ESPN 360 online. WKU will play 12-6 (D-I games) and Big Sky-leading Northern Arizona. View the rest of the TV match ups here. I'll have a full breakdown tomorrow.
III. Bracket Update
This is the first week where we saw some real continuity in the bracket from last week. No major players fell out this week. Syracuse fell a lot but landed at a 9-seed, and Vandy fell out, but I have not been as high on the 'Dores as others have. Wake Forest also fell out, but I do not think that surprises anyone. They have been on that path for a long while.
IV. Tonight's GOI
--Samford at Murray State. Huge game in the OVC. These two lead the OVC at 10-2.
--Hawaii at Utah State. The 'Bows desperately need road wins (0-5).
--Louisville at Villanova. Cats won the first meeting in the Ville. Cards are close to the brink at this point.
You know, I just do not have it in me to talk about New Orleans' shortcomings as a team. Some considered them the second best team in the Sun Belt West over the summer, but Hurricane Katrina, a season-ending injury for All-Sun Belt first team PG Bo McCalebb, and the loss of their leading scorer this season just a couple of weeks ago has turned this group into a gritty, tough, admirable club that has little chance of winning more than two or three more games. UNO, my prayers are with you. I hope next season brings better things.
After a lackluster first half, the Tops combusted on a 28-7 run at the start of the second half. The Topper bench played the last eight minutes of the game and reserves Butch Jointer and Daniel Emerson played valuable minutes, which bodes well for the stretch run. Superstar swingman Courtney Lee took a horrible spill at the 12-minute mark and did not return citing a hip contusion. Hopefully, he will be OK. The Tops travel to Florida International tomorrow night and then will enjoy (endure?) a nine-day layoff before their next game on February 9 at Denver.
II. Bracket Buster
The Tops are right on the bubble for a TV game. They did indeed secure a broadcast from ESPN, but we do not know if it will be on TV or on ESPN 360 online. WKU will play 12-6 (D-I games) and Big Sky-leading Northern Arizona. View the rest of the TV match ups here. I'll have a full breakdown tomorrow.
III. Bracket Update
This is the first week where we saw some real continuity in the bracket from last week. No major players fell out this week. Syracuse fell a lot but landed at a 9-seed, and Vandy fell out, but I have not been as high on the 'Dores as others have. Wake Forest also fell out, but I do not think that surprises anyone. They have been on that path for a long while.
1. Boston College seems to have answered the bell. They have won five in a row including three road wins. Their RPI is a robust 24 and they now have a winning record in the ACC.
2. Oklahoma also solidified their status with a big win over Texas yesterday. That will go a long way on their resume.
3. Kentucky continues to find a way. They have a very telling four game stretch starting on Wednesday at Mississippi State, then at Florida, host Tennessee, and at Vandy. A good run over those four likely will solidify the Cats.
4. Missouri State was the big loser in the MVC this week. They lost to fellow Bubbler Bradley and their profile is now clearly the sixth best. That's trouble for the Bears.
Multi-bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (9): UConn, Villanova, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Marquette, Seton Hall
Big Ten (7): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan
SEC (5): Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Kentucky, Alabama
ACC (5): Duke, NC State, Maryland, Boston College, North Carolina
MVC (4): Northern Iowa, Creighton, Wichita State, Southern Illinois
Big 12 (4): Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas
Pac-10 (3): UCLA, Arizona, Washington
CUSA (2): Memphis, UAB
A-10 (2): George Washington, Xavier
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion
Last Four Teams In: Old Dominion, Seton Hall, Alabama, Temple
First Four Out: Bradley, Vanderbilt, Iowa State, ArkansasIV. Tonight's GOI
--Samford at Murray State. Huge game in the OVC. These two lead the OVC at 10-2.
--Hawaii at Utah State. The 'Bows desperately need road wins (0-5).
--Louisville at Villanova. Cats won the first meeting in the Ville. Cards are close to the brink at this point.
Friday, January 27, 2006
WKU Holds Off Cajuns; Buster Update
I. Tops Roar Early, Coast Late Over ULL, 94-81
For the second straight home game, WKU blasted out to a gi-normous lead, only to see the opponent crawl back into the game in the second half. The Toppers' pressure defense blew the Cajuns' doors off out of the gate to the tune of 11-0 to start the game. The sold out crowd of 7,300+ shook the building with the ESPN2 lights blazing on. The Tops continued the onslaught for most of the first half, building a lead of 44-22 at one point. But, much like the UALR game twelve days ago, the Tops took their foot off of the accelerator. The Cajuns pounced on the lax defense and closed the half on a 7-0 run. That run spilled over into the second half with ULL executing a dunk-filled 19-1 run before it was finished to cut the lead to four at 45-41.
From that point on, the entire second half consisted of dunks by Cajun C Michael Southall (who scored a career high 34 points) and timely counterpunches by WKU's Anthony Winchester. The lead fluctuated from 6-12 for the duration of the game. The Tops made their free throws down the stretch to keep this one from getting too stressful. The game finished with a flurry of activity from The Great Red Pterodactyl himself, Grace Wilborn. He caught an alley-oop pass apparently intended for someone in Section 206 at the apex of its flight and rammed it home to the delight of the sold out crowd. He followed that up on the other end with a rejection of a Cajun shot that put a black eye on the man in the moon. When the lights are on, Everyone's Pfavorite Pterosaur comes to play with extra vigor.
The Topper defensive scheme was a bit perplexing. The press proved extremely effective for the first 17 minutes, but ULL solved it around that time. I do not know how many dunks Southall had, but his hands are surely sore today. ULL is a terrible shooting team, but WKU never employed a defense that forced them shoot from the perimeter. The Toppers won the game, but it left my section of folks scratching our heads a bit. Nevertheless, the Tops put on quite an offensive show for the ESPN2 crowd. One cannot complain too much about double-digit victories.
II. Bracket Buster Update
This is the last Buster update as the pairings will be announced on Sunday. I think most of top TV teams are set at this point, but the real question (especially as a WKU fan) is this: what will be the criteria used to choose the teams? Will it be by total NCAA profile or just by RPI? WKU fans are hoping it is the former.
I have updated the Bracket Buster Page today. Teams from the same conference obviously will not be matched up in the Bracket Buster. Also, it is not determined by RPI alone (though it is a big component), but a combination of record, schedule strength, RPI, impact on NCAA selection profile, and perceived TV marketability probably will play into the pairings. If teams were matched up today, this is how the 11 TV games might look if they pair teams based on their total NCAA profile. If they go strictly by the RPI, consult the linked Bracket Buster page above and just follow the numerical assignments unless the home and road team are from the same conference.
This is how I would match them up based on NCAA profile.
1. Bucknell at Northern Iowa
2. Missouri State at UW-Milwaukee
3. George Mason at Wichita State
4. Akron at Creighton
5. Tennessee Tech at Southern Illinois
6. Samford at Old Dominion
7. Northwestern State at Iona
8. Buffalo at Utah State
9. Fresno State at Bradley
10. Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky
11. Drake at Nevada
I think Northwestern State is the most interesting case. They have a good RPI, but they only have two games remaining against teams with winning records, so they are going to continue to drop the rest of the season. Also, I'm wondering if Nevada's preseason buzz and marquee big man Nick Fazekas will get them some special treatment. The last two or three teams on each side probably come down to Saturday's game resuts. There are still a lot of teams alive for TV games.
III. Weekend Forecast
Let's break these into three categories.
Clashes of the Titans (Beware of The Kraken)
--Ohio State at Iowa. Iowa looked very tough at home against Indiana earlier this week.
--Wisconsin at Michigan. Michigan finally scored their big win. Two in a row?
Bubble Boy Games (They're real...and they're SPECTACTULAR)
--Mississippi State at Alabama. The Tide has little room for error.
--Washington State at Cal. Bears are trying to be that fourth Pac-10 bid.
--Kansas State at Colorado. Somebody has to win these Big 12 games.
--Wichita State at Creighton. CU looks to knock off one of the three two-loss MVC teams.
--Virginia at Duke. This would probably vault the Cavs solidly into the bracket.
--Vanderbilt at Florida. 'Dores would love to hand UF their third straight conference loss.
--Old Dominion at George Mason. This is really a Clash of the CAA Titans game, but both would be on the NCAA at-large bubble.
--Cincinnati at Georgetown. Bearcats are 1-4 in their last five.
--Kansas at Iowa State. Let's see if the Cyclones really are the second best team in the Big XII.
--Hawaii at Nevada. Hawaii will be in NCAA contention with a few road wins.
--Arizona at North Carolina. Two hoops powerhouses in slightly down years. Both are still solidly in the bracket, but they are "Titans" in name only.
--Texas at Oklahoma. Sooners need a quality win. Badly.
--Marquette at Pitt. This would solidify Marquette a bit.
--Louisville at Rutgers. Both SEVERELY need this one.
--Maryland at Temple. Dangerous game for the Terps. Owls just knocked off Xavier this week.
Sun Belt Slate
--UALR (4-2) at Arkansas State (3-4). In state rivalry alert! State took the first match up in The Rock.
--UL-Lafayette (1-6) at Middle Tennessee (2-4). ULL's Southall is coming off a career game.
--South Alabama (4-2) at North Texas (5-2). Mean Green have a real shot out West.
--New Orleans (2-5) at Western Kentucky (6-1). Probably the worst and best teams in the Belt.
--Troy (3-3) at Denver (4-3). The Trojans are 7-1 at home and 2-7 on the road.
Enjoy the weekend. Bracket and Bracket Buster pairings talk on Monday.
For the second straight home game, WKU blasted out to a gi-normous lead, only to see the opponent crawl back into the game in the second half. The Toppers' pressure defense blew the Cajuns' doors off out of the gate to the tune of 11-0 to start the game. The sold out crowd of 7,300+ shook the building with the ESPN2 lights blazing on. The Tops continued the onslaught for most of the first half, building a lead of 44-22 at one point. But, much like the UALR game twelve days ago, the Tops took their foot off of the accelerator. The Cajuns pounced on the lax defense and closed the half on a 7-0 run. That run spilled over into the second half with ULL executing a dunk-filled 19-1 run before it was finished to cut the lead to four at 45-41.
From that point on, the entire second half consisted of dunks by Cajun C Michael Southall (who scored a career high 34 points) and timely counterpunches by WKU's Anthony Winchester. The lead fluctuated from 6-12 for the duration of the game. The Tops made their free throws down the stretch to keep this one from getting too stressful. The game finished with a flurry of activity from The Great Red Pterodactyl himself, Grace Wilborn. He caught an alley-oop pass apparently intended for someone in Section 206 at the apex of its flight and rammed it home to the delight of the sold out crowd. He followed that up on the other end with a rejection of a Cajun shot that put a black eye on the man in the moon. When the lights are on, Everyone's Pfavorite Pterosaur comes to play with extra vigor.
The Topper defensive scheme was a bit perplexing. The press proved extremely effective for the first 17 minutes, but ULL solved it around that time. I do not know how many dunks Southall had, but his hands are surely sore today. ULL is a terrible shooting team, but WKU never employed a defense that forced them shoot from the perimeter. The Toppers won the game, but it left my section of folks scratching our heads a bit. Nevertheless, the Tops put on quite an offensive show for the ESPN2 crowd. One cannot complain too much about double-digit victories.
II. Bracket Buster Update
This is the last Buster update as the pairings will be announced on Sunday. I think most of top TV teams are set at this point, but the real question (especially as a WKU fan) is this: what will be the criteria used to choose the teams? Will it be by total NCAA profile or just by RPI? WKU fans are hoping it is the former.
I have updated the Bracket Buster Page today. Teams from the same conference obviously will not be matched up in the Bracket Buster. Also, it is not determined by RPI alone (though it is a big component), but a combination of record, schedule strength, RPI, impact on NCAA selection profile, and perceived TV marketability probably will play into the pairings. If teams were matched up today, this is how the 11 TV games might look if they pair teams based on their total NCAA profile. If they go strictly by the RPI, consult the linked Bracket Buster page above and just follow the numerical assignments unless the home and road team are from the same conference.
This is how I would match them up based on NCAA profile.
1. Bucknell at Northern Iowa
2. Missouri State at UW-Milwaukee
3. George Mason at Wichita State
4. Akron at Creighton
5. Tennessee Tech at Southern Illinois
6. Samford at Old Dominion
7. Northwestern State at Iona
8. Buffalo at Utah State
9. Fresno State at Bradley
10. Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky
11. Drake at Nevada
I think Northwestern State is the most interesting case. They have a good RPI, but they only have two games remaining against teams with winning records, so they are going to continue to drop the rest of the season. Also, I'm wondering if Nevada's preseason buzz and marquee big man Nick Fazekas will get them some special treatment. The last two or three teams on each side probably come down to Saturday's game resuts. There are still a lot of teams alive for TV games.
III. Weekend Forecast
Let's break these into three categories.
Clashes of the Titans (Beware of The Kraken)
--Ohio State at Iowa. Iowa looked very tough at home against Indiana earlier this week.
--Wisconsin at Michigan. Michigan finally scored their big win. Two in a row?
Bubble Boy Games (They're real...and they're SPECTACTULAR)
--Mississippi State at Alabama. The Tide has little room for error.
--Washington State at Cal. Bears are trying to be that fourth Pac-10 bid.
--Kansas State at Colorado. Somebody has to win these Big 12 games.
--Wichita State at Creighton. CU looks to knock off one of the three two-loss MVC teams.
--Virginia at Duke. This would probably vault the Cavs solidly into the bracket.
--Vanderbilt at Florida. 'Dores would love to hand UF their third straight conference loss.
--Old Dominion at George Mason. This is really a Clash of the CAA Titans game, but both would be on the NCAA at-large bubble.
--Cincinnati at Georgetown. Bearcats are 1-4 in their last five.
--Kansas at Iowa State. Let's see if the Cyclones really are the second best team in the Big XII.
--Hawaii at Nevada. Hawaii will be in NCAA contention with a few road wins.
--Arizona at North Carolina. Two hoops powerhouses in slightly down years. Both are still solidly in the bracket, but they are "Titans" in name only.
--Texas at Oklahoma. Sooners need a quality win. Badly.
--Marquette at Pitt. This would solidify Marquette a bit.
--Louisville at Rutgers. Both SEVERELY need this one.
--Maryland at Temple. Dangerous game for the Terps. Owls just knocked off Xavier this week.
Sun Belt Slate
--UALR (4-2) at Arkansas State (3-4). In state rivalry alert! State took the first match up in The Rock.
--UL-Lafayette (1-6) at Middle Tennessee (2-4). ULL's Southall is coming off a career game.
--South Alabama (4-2) at North Texas (5-2). Mean Green have a real shot out West.
--New Orleans (2-5) at Western Kentucky (6-1). Probably the worst and best teams in the Belt.
--Troy (3-3) at Denver (4-3). The Trojans are 7-1 at home and 2-7 on the road.
Enjoy the weekend. Bracket and Bracket Buster pairings talk on Monday.
Thursday, January 26, 2006
Secretariats of Hoops
1. My latest article is up on SCS.com. If you like college hoops, check it out. If you like college hoops and horseracing, check it out and tell me how I butchered the analogies.
2. What in the wide, wide world of sports was going on last night? Marshall over West Virginia!?!? Seton Hall ravages NC State? BC over North Carolina and Michigan over Michigan State were a little less surprising, but still upsets in my mind. That West Virginia loss goes into the X-files. More on the X-files coming soon.
3. I have raked Louisville over the coals pretty harshly this season. The got a win over Cincinnati in Louisville last night. The Bearcats are 1-4 since Armein Kirkland went down with an ACL tear. It's a good win for UL, but they need they need a few more quality wins to prove their NCAA worthiness. The Cards need a split of their upcoming road games at Rutgers and Villanova to be taken seriously.
4. I will finish the GOI later if I have time. Busy day today.
II. Last Night's GOI
--Arizona 80, at Arizona State 70. Much-needed road win for Zona.
--at Arkansas 71, Mississippi 58. Reality is sinking in for Ole Miss.
--at Bradley 86, Missouri State 76. Braves are tough at home. Now tied with MO State for 5th in the MVC.
--at Colorado 81, Nebraska 59. Ouch. Huskers continue to tumble in the RPI.
--Maryland 86, at Georgia Tech 74. Extremely important road win for the Terps.
--Bucknell 59, at Lehigh 54. The Bison are going to be tough to beat in the PL.
--at Louisville 67, Cincinnati 50. Cards cash in a must win. Need at least a split in next two at Rutgers and at Villanova.
--at LSU 81, Georgia 52. Wow. LSU is starting to really put it together. They have hordes of talent.
--at Michigan 72, Michigan State 67. Once again, the in-state rivalry games rarely disappoint. Monumental win for Maize and Blue.
--Tennessee 88, at Mississippi State 65. If Vols can win consistently on the road, look out.
2. What in the wide, wide world of sports was going on last night? Marshall over West Virginia!?!? Seton Hall ravages NC State? BC over North Carolina and Michigan over Michigan State were a little less surprising, but still upsets in my mind. That West Virginia loss goes into the X-files. More on the X-files coming soon.
3. I have raked Louisville over the coals pretty harshly this season. The got a win over Cincinnati in Louisville last night. The Bearcats are 1-4 since Armein Kirkland went down with an ACL tear. It's a good win for UL, but they need they need a few more quality wins to prove their NCAA worthiness. The Cards need a split of their upcoming road games at Rutgers and Villanova to be taken seriously.
4. I will finish the GOI later if I have time. Busy day today.
II. Last Night's GOI
--Arizona 80, at Arizona State 70. Much-needed road win for Zona.
--at Arkansas 71, Mississippi 58. Reality is sinking in for Ole Miss.
--at Bradley 86, Missouri State 76. Braves are tough at home. Now tied with MO State for 5th in the MVC.
--at Colorado 81, Nebraska 59. Ouch. Huskers continue to tumble in the RPI.
--Maryland 86, at Georgia Tech 74. Extremely important road win for the Terps.
--Bucknell 59, at Lehigh 54. The Bison are going to be tough to beat in the PL.
--at Louisville 67, Cincinnati 50. Cards cash in a must win. Need at least a split in next two at Rutgers and at Villanova.
--at LSU 81, Georgia 52. Wow. LSU is starting to really put it together. They have hordes of talent.
--at Michigan 72, Michigan State 67. Once again, the in-state rivalry games rarely disappoint. Monumental win for Maize and Blue.
--Tennessee 88, at Mississippi State 65. If Vols can win consistently on the road, look out.
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
Big Ol' Bubble
I. Bubble Swells to 14 Slots
Louisville is the poster child for why fans should take the polls with a grain of salt. The Cards are not showing up in very many bracket projections this week, and if they do appear, they are a 12/13 seed. They have lost three games in a row, two at home, and all by double digits. They should be listed as the University of Rick Pitino's Track Record, because that is the only thing the pollsters could be hanging onto right now. Maybe they can score a decent win tonight when they host Cincinnati.
In the last two weeks, we have welcomed preseason powers Kentucky, Oklahoma, Louisville, and Boston College as Bubble Boys. They are all still there at this point, though Kentucky and Oklahoma have trended upward in the last week. This week, let's roll out the bubbly, red carpet for Wake Forest and Iowa State. Wake is now 1-5 in the ACC which puts them on the bad side of the Bubble, and the Cyclones have been one of the most schizophrenic teams in the country. They won the Iowa State Championship by beating both Northern Iowa and Iowa, but they were routed at home at Iona, and have home losses to Fresno State, Texas A&M, and struggling Texas Tech. They have lost three of four and are in real danger if they do not stop the bleeding soon.
Have a look at the updated Lockbox to see what the conference bubble breakdown looks like.
Notes:
1. With Wake's loss and Miami-FL's blowout defeat at Virginia, I changed two spots in the Lockbox from Monday's bracket. I filled these two vacated slots with Southern Illinois and Virginia for the time being.
2. The Big 12 just keeps getting more and more wide open. The only sure-fire NCAA team is Texas. There is a lot of space for anyone who would like to win some conference games.
3. Lots of names that are unfamiliar to casual fans are popping up in the conference leaders of some of the one-bid leagues. Binghamton, Lipscomb, Elon, and Central Connecticut State are all currently projected in. Some old friends have resurfaced as conference leaders, too. Welcome back, Kent State. You too, IUPUI.
4. Historically, the Bubble hovers around the 9-13 range in Jan and early Feb, but will be down to 5-7 slots (maybe less) come selection Sunday. Just FYI.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--15 at-large bids look taken at this point. There are 24 teams listed as "virtual locks," but nine of them are conference leaders. That means that they account for 15 at-large bids. Consult the Lockbox and view the teams listed in black. It is hard to imagine any of those teams missing at this point. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Six other teams look pretty safe, but we need a little more confirmation from Maryland, Cincinnati, Georgetown, George Washington, Xavier, and Creighton. This accounts for five bids since GW is the leader of the A-10.
--That leaves 14 bids for the Bubble Boys, which is a season high. The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.
II. Last Night's GOI
--Kentucky 71, at Auburn 62. The Cats have been able to take care of the two basement teams in both the SEC East and West in the last two games. They host fellow Bubbler Arkansas on Saturday.
--at Iowa 73, Indiana 60. The power of the home court...and good defense on Marco Killingsworth.
--Georgetown 85, at Notre Dame 82 (2 OT). That G'town won after that horrendous call on the road is enough for me to declare them "NCAA quality." Oh, that and the clinic they put on against Duke.
--at Ohio 66, Akron 63. Both are now 6-1 and trail 7-0 Kent State in the MAC East.
--at SIU 62, Creighton 48. Now 32 in a row for the Salukis at home.
--at Virginia 71, Miami-FL 51. 'Canes starting to slide again. UVA now with NCAA hopes at 4-2 in the ACC.
--Florida State 75, at Wake Forest 68. FSU's hopes get a shot in the arm, too. Wake is in big trouble with a 1-5 ACC start.
III. Tonight's GOI
--Arizona at Arizona State. In-state rivalry alert! The Cats lost both games on their Oregon swing, so they are hungry for a road win.
--Mississippi at Arkansas. SEC West and Bubble implications.
--Missouri State at Bradley. A Braves' win would pull them into a tie for fifth with the Bears in the MVC and get them back into the NCAA convo.
--Nebraska at Colorado. Two of the gaggle of Big 12 teams that are fringe Bubble teams.
--Maryland at Georgia Tech. Danger game for the Terps. They do not want to slide onto the Bubble. They have not won a game away from home against a D-I team. Yes, you read that correctly.
--Bucknell at Lehigh. Tester for the Bison. Lehigh has won seven in a row and are 5-0 in the Patriot League.
--Cincinnati at Louisville. Rick Pitino said Saturday's game against UConn was a must win...so I guess we know what that makes this game.
--Georgia at LSU. A win here makes the Dawgs intriguing.
--Michigan State at Michigan. In-state rivalry alert! And the Wolverines are looking for that signature win.
--Tennessee at Mississippi State. Vols are set up for a letdown on the road.
--Iowa State at Missouri. Critical game for both team's Big 12 positioning and NCAA hopes.
--Kansas at Texas A&M. See above.
--Boston College at North Carolina. Carolina has been struggling a bit. BC could use a marquee win.
--Xavier at Temple. Muskies need to bounce back from St. Louis loss, and that's not easy to do at Temple (5-1 at home with their only loss to 'Nova).
--Air Force at UNLV. A UNLV win here puts the Falcons two games back of the Mt. West leaders.
Louisville is the poster child for why fans should take the polls with a grain of salt. The Cards are not showing up in very many bracket projections this week, and if they do appear, they are a 12/13 seed. They have lost three games in a row, two at home, and all by double digits. They should be listed as the University of Rick Pitino's Track Record, because that is the only thing the pollsters could be hanging onto right now. Maybe they can score a decent win tonight when they host Cincinnati.
In the last two weeks, we have welcomed preseason powers Kentucky, Oklahoma, Louisville, and Boston College as Bubble Boys. They are all still there at this point, though Kentucky and Oklahoma have trended upward in the last week. This week, let's roll out the bubbly, red carpet for Wake Forest and Iowa State. Wake is now 1-5 in the ACC which puts them on the bad side of the Bubble, and the Cyclones have been one of the most schizophrenic teams in the country. They won the Iowa State Championship by beating both Northern Iowa and Iowa, but they were routed at home at Iona, and have home losses to Fresno State, Texas A&M, and struggling Texas Tech. They have lost three of four and are in real danger if they do not stop the bleeding soon.
Have a look at the updated Lockbox to see what the conference bubble breakdown looks like.
Notes:
1. With Wake's loss and Miami-FL's blowout defeat at Virginia, I changed two spots in the Lockbox from Monday's bracket. I filled these two vacated slots with Southern Illinois and Virginia for the time being.
2. The Big 12 just keeps getting more and more wide open. The only sure-fire NCAA team is Texas. There is a lot of space for anyone who would like to win some conference games.
3. Lots of names that are unfamiliar to casual fans are popping up in the conference leaders of some of the one-bid leagues. Binghamton, Lipscomb, Elon, and Central Connecticut State are all currently projected in. Some old friends have resurfaced as conference leaders, too. Welcome back, Kent State. You too, IUPUI.
4. Historically, the Bubble hovers around the 9-13 range in Jan and early Feb, but will be down to 5-7 slots (maybe less) come selection Sunday. Just FYI.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--15 at-large bids look taken at this point. There are 24 teams listed as "virtual locks," but nine of them are conference leaders. That means that they account for 15 at-large bids. Consult the Lockbox and view the teams listed in black. It is hard to imagine any of those teams missing at this point. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Six other teams look pretty safe, but we need a little more confirmation from Maryland, Cincinnati, Georgetown, George Washington, Xavier, and Creighton. This accounts for five bids since GW is the leader of the A-10.
--That leaves 14 bids for the Bubble Boys, which is a season high. The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.
II. Last Night's GOI
--Kentucky 71, at Auburn 62. The Cats have been able to take care of the two basement teams in both the SEC East and West in the last two games. They host fellow Bubbler Arkansas on Saturday.
--at Iowa 73, Indiana 60. The power of the home court...and good defense on Marco Killingsworth.
--Georgetown 85, at Notre Dame 82 (2 OT). That G'town won after that horrendous call on the road is enough for me to declare them "NCAA quality." Oh, that and the clinic they put on against Duke.
--at Ohio 66, Akron 63. Both are now 6-1 and trail 7-0 Kent State in the MAC East.
--at SIU 62, Creighton 48. Now 32 in a row for the Salukis at home.
--at Virginia 71, Miami-FL 51. 'Canes starting to slide again. UVA now with NCAA hopes at 4-2 in the ACC.
--Florida State 75, at Wake Forest 68. FSU's hopes get a shot in the arm, too. Wake is in big trouble with a 1-5 ACC start.
III. Tonight's GOI
--Arizona at Arizona State. In-state rivalry alert! The Cats lost both games on their Oregon swing, so they are hungry for a road win.
--Mississippi at Arkansas. SEC West and Bubble implications.
--Missouri State at Bradley. A Braves' win would pull them into a tie for fifth with the Bears in the MVC and get them back into the NCAA convo.
--Nebraska at Colorado. Two of the gaggle of Big 12 teams that are fringe Bubble teams.
--Maryland at Georgia Tech. Danger game for the Terps. They do not want to slide onto the Bubble. They have not won a game away from home against a D-I team. Yes, you read that correctly.
--Bucknell at Lehigh. Tester for the Bison. Lehigh has won seven in a row and are 5-0 in the Patriot League.
--Cincinnati at Louisville. Rick Pitino said Saturday's game against UConn was a must win...so I guess we know what that makes this game.
--Georgia at LSU. A win here makes the Dawgs intriguing.
--Michigan State at Michigan. In-state rivalry alert! And the Wolverines are looking for that signature win.
--Tennessee at Mississippi State. Vols are set up for a letdown on the road.
--Iowa State at Missouri. Critical game for both team's Big 12 positioning and NCAA hopes.
--Kansas at Texas A&M. See above.
--Boston College at North Carolina. Carolina has been struggling a bit. BC could use a marquee win.
--Xavier at Temple. Muskies need to bounce back from St. Louis loss, and that's not easy to do at Temple (5-1 at home with their only loss to 'Nova).
--Air Force at UNLV. A UNLV win here puts the Falcons two games back of the Mt. West leaders.
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
Five Days 'til Bracket Buster Pairings
I. TV Teams Solidifying for Bracket Buster
The ESPN Bracket Buster has swelled to an incredible 100 teams this season, encompassing nearly a full third of all D-I college hoops teams. Needless to say, many of those games are going to have little impact on the bracket. Furthermore, the power is inordinately tilted toward the home side.
I have created a Bracket Buster Page that will track all 100 teams from now until the pairings are announced on Jan 29. That means that we are now just five days away from the announcement of the pairings. I will do two more updates this week (Thurs. and Fri.).
Teams from the same conference obviously will not be matched up in the Bracket Buster. Also, it is not determined by RPI alone (though it is a big component), but a combination of record, schedule strength, RPI, impact on NCAA selection profile, and perceived TV marketability probably will play into the pairings. If teams were matched up today, this is how the 11 TV games might look if they pair teams based on their total NCAA profile. If they go strictly by the RPI, consult the linked Bracket Buster page above and just follow the numerical assignments unless the home and road team are from the same conference.
1. Bucknell at Northern Iowa
2. Missouri State at UW-Milwaukee
3. George Mason at Wichita State
4. Akron at Creighton
5. Northern Illinois at Southern Illinois
6. Tennessee Tech at Old Dominion
7. Northwestern State at Manhattan
8. Samford at Western Kentucky
9. Drake at Utah State
10. Louisiana Tech at Iona
11. Fresno State at Winthrop
I think the top six or seven teams on each side (home and away) are assured of a TV game of some sort, but this week's games will determine the bottom four or five TV match ups.
II. Last Night's GOI
--at Fairleigh Dickinson 81, Sacred Heart 73. FDU helps break up the six-way tie for first in the Northeast.
--Utah State 59, at Nevada 53. The Aggies get a monster win. 'Pack's at-large hopes are pretty much toast.
--at Pittsburgh 80, Syracuse 67. Pitt rebounds from St. John's loss; 'Cuse has dropped three in a row.
--at Texas 80, Oklahoma State 46. 'Horns are starting to look like that steamroller that I picked to win the national championship in the preseason.
III. Tonight's GOI
--Kentucky at Auburn. Much-needed road win for Bubble Boy Kentucky against much-improved Auburn.
--Indiana at Iowa. Seems that there is an important match up every night in the Big Ten.
--Georgetown at Notre Dame. An emotional letdown is almost inevitable for GU, and it comes at needy ND.
--Akron at Ohio. Two of the better MAC clubs.
--Creighton at SIU. Two of the four MVC clubs with 7-2 conference records.
--Miami-FL at Virginia. A double-dip of ACC Bubble match ups. See below.
--Florida State at Wake Forest. See above.
The ESPN Bracket Buster has swelled to an incredible 100 teams this season, encompassing nearly a full third of all D-I college hoops teams. Needless to say, many of those games are going to have little impact on the bracket. Furthermore, the power is inordinately tilted toward the home side.
I have created a Bracket Buster Page that will track all 100 teams from now until the pairings are announced on Jan 29. That means that we are now just five days away from the announcement of the pairings. I will do two more updates this week (Thurs. and Fri.).
Teams from the same conference obviously will not be matched up in the Bracket Buster. Also, it is not determined by RPI alone (though it is a big component), but a combination of record, schedule strength, RPI, impact on NCAA selection profile, and perceived TV marketability probably will play into the pairings. If teams were matched up today, this is how the 11 TV games might look if they pair teams based on their total NCAA profile. If they go strictly by the RPI, consult the linked Bracket Buster page above and just follow the numerical assignments unless the home and road team are from the same conference.
1. Bucknell at Northern Iowa
2. Missouri State at UW-Milwaukee
3. George Mason at Wichita State
4. Akron at Creighton
5. Northern Illinois at Southern Illinois
6. Tennessee Tech at Old Dominion
7. Northwestern State at Manhattan
8. Samford at Western Kentucky
9. Drake at Utah State
10. Louisiana Tech at Iona
11. Fresno State at Winthrop
I think the top six or seven teams on each side (home and away) are assured of a TV game of some sort, but this week's games will determine the bottom four or five TV match ups.
II. Last Night's GOI
--at Fairleigh Dickinson 81, Sacred Heart 73. FDU helps break up the six-way tie for first in the Northeast.
--Utah State 59, at Nevada 53. The Aggies get a monster win. 'Pack's at-large hopes are pretty much toast.
--at Pittsburgh 80, Syracuse 67. Pitt rebounds from St. John's loss; 'Cuse has dropped three in a row.
--at Texas 80, Oklahoma State 46. 'Horns are starting to look like that steamroller that I picked to win the national championship in the preseason.
III. Tonight's GOI
--Kentucky at Auburn. Much-needed road win for Bubble Boy Kentucky against much-improved Auburn.
--Indiana at Iowa. Seems that there is an important match up every night in the Big Ten.
--Georgetown at Notre Dame. An emotional letdown is almost inevitable for GU, and it comes at needy ND.
--Akron at Ohio. Two of the better MAC clubs.
--Creighton at SIU. Two of the four MVC clubs with 7-2 conference records.
--Miami-FL at Virginia. A double-dip of ACC Bubble match ups. See below.
--Florida State at Wake Forest. See above.
Monday, January 23, 2006
Tops Nip Jags; 01/23 Bracket
I. Tops Recover By Slipping Past South Alabama, 74-73
In a match up of the two best teams in the Belt, WKU managed to eke out a one-point road win in Mobile over South AL. The Jags were 8-0 at home and 4-0 in the Sun Belt before WKU handed them the tough loss. Both teams played stretches of excellent defense in this game and both had stretches of hot shooting to make mini-runs. WKU led by nine points on two different occasions in the second half, but USA answered both times, once with a three-point barrage by Demetric Bennett (three in a row) and once by making a string of free throws late in the second half to pull even.
WKU made a conscious effort to go inside early and often. While this helped the Tops get some open outside looks, the outside shooting woes continued in the first half as WKU was 0-5 from Three to start the game. From that point on, the Tops were 9-14 from beyond the arc the rest of the way. This team tends to live and die with their perimeter shooting. The amazing part is that WKU lost the battle on the boards (36-34), were outscored by 15 at the line, and still managed a road win against a team that was formerly 8-0 at home. Big win for WKU...and they get to keep the Belt bracket slot for another week.
II. Bracket Update
Last week, big guns Oklahoma and Kentucky fell out of the bracket. While both barely slipped back into this week's bracket, 2005 Final Four partcipant Louisville fell out. The Cards' RPI is 82, they have no top 50 RPI wins, they are 1-4 in Big East play, and they lost to Saint John's this week (although the Johnnies upset Pitt as well). Preseason darling Nevada also fell out. The numerical evidence is too great to overcome any love for big Nick Fazekas.
Others: Kansas State, Kansas, Georgia, Air Force, Nebraska
III. Tonight's GOI
--Sacred Heart at Fairleigh Dickinson. There is a SIX-WAY tie at the top of the Northeast Conference. These are two of those six teams with two conferences losses.
--Utah State at Nevada. Huge WAC tilt between two favorites.
--Syracuse at Pittsburgh. Both coming off of Big East losses over the weekend.
--Oklahoma State at Texas. This one would go a long way on the Cowboys' resume.
In a match up of the two best teams in the Belt, WKU managed to eke out a one-point road win in Mobile over South AL. The Jags were 8-0 at home and 4-0 in the Sun Belt before WKU handed them the tough loss. Both teams played stretches of excellent defense in this game and both had stretches of hot shooting to make mini-runs. WKU led by nine points on two different occasions in the second half, but USA answered both times, once with a three-point barrage by Demetric Bennett (three in a row) and once by making a string of free throws late in the second half to pull even.
WKU made a conscious effort to go inside early and often. While this helped the Tops get some open outside looks, the outside shooting woes continued in the first half as WKU was 0-5 from Three to start the game. From that point on, the Tops were 9-14 from beyond the arc the rest of the way. This team tends to live and die with their perimeter shooting. The amazing part is that WKU lost the battle on the boards (36-34), were outscored by 15 at the line, and still managed a road win against a team that was formerly 8-0 at home. Big win for WKU...and they get to keep the Belt bracket slot for another week.
II. Bracket Update
Last week, big guns Oklahoma and Kentucky fell out of the bracket. While both barely slipped back into this week's bracket, 2005 Final Four partcipant Louisville fell out. The Cards' RPI is 82, they have no top 50 RPI wins, they are 1-4 in Big East play, and they lost to Saint John's this week (although the Johnnies upset Pitt as well). Preseason darling Nevada also fell out. The numerical evidence is too great to overcome any love for big Nick Fazekas.
1. Boston College and Wake Forest need to pick up a bit. Both are precariously close to falling out of the bracket. BC's win over streaking Miami-FL will help if the Canes keep up their good play.
2. Aforementioned Oklahoma slipped back in by beating Texas A&M and Texas Tech. OK is at Baylor on Wednesday and has a huge game against Texas in Norman on Saturday.
3. Kentucky fans were elated with the late heroics needed to get a victory over South Carolina. In Rupp Arena. That should tell you something about where UK is right now. UK goes to Auburn on Tuesday night and hosts fellow Bubble Boy Arkansas on Sunday. They need both games.
4. Miami-FL soared into the bracket based on some fantastic recent play. They have won four of five, including wins over Maryland, North Carolina, and Clemson. They did lose to Boston College on Saturday, but they still are in at this point. They have road games at Virginia and Florida State this week.
Multi-bid Conference Breakdown
West Virginia, Miami-FL, Georgetown, and LSU were big gainers this week. SIU, Louisville, DePaul, Nebraska, and Nevada fell out of the bracket.
Big East (8): UConn, Villanova, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Marquette
Big Ten (7): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan
ACC (7): Duke, NC State, Maryland, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Boston College, Miami-FL
SEC (7): Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Kentucky
MVC (4): Northern Iowa, Creighton, Wichita State, Missouri State
Pac-10 (3): UCLA, Arizona, Washington
Big 12 (3): Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma
CUSA (2): Memphis, UAB
A-10 (2): George Washington, Xavier
Last Four Teams In: Kentucky, Boston College, Wake Forest, Oklahoma
Others: Kansas State, Kansas, Georgia, Air Force, Nebraska
III. Tonight's GOI
--Sacred Heart at Fairleigh Dickinson. There is a SIX-WAY tie at the top of the Northeast Conference. These are two of those six teams with two conferences losses.
--Utah State at Nevada. Huge WAC tilt between two favorites.
--Syracuse at Pittsburgh. Both coming off of Big East losses over the weekend.
--Oklahoma State at Texas. This one would go a long way on the Cowboys' resume.
Friday, January 20, 2006
Alabama Smackdown; Weekend Forecast
I. Troy Blasts Toppers, 76-49
I really do not know where to begin here. WKU had reeled off six wins in a row, but were absolutely destroyed at Troy last night. Sometimes you have an off night. Sometimes the other team plays way above their normal level. Sometimes you can't throw it the ocean. Sometimes that all happens on the same night on the road. That was the case last night. The Toppers elected to engage in Troy's uptempo Three-festival, and shot 5-38 (not a typo) from beyond the arc including 1-21 in the second half. The game was actually pretty close until the 11 min mark of the second half when Troy made four consecutive threes to break the game wide open. The last 4 minutes consisted of alley-oop dunks and a more threes for the Trojans. Bobby Dixon, the Trojans fine point guard, went straight past ludicrous speed and barrelled into plaid with 18 points, 16 assists, 9 rebs, and 5 steals.
The Tops will try to pick up the pieces on the road at league-leading South Alabama tomorrow night. The enigmatic Tops could certainly use a nice road win to restore some confidence.
II. Last Night's GOI
--at Missouri State 71, Southern Illinois 63. Bears get the big win they have been looking for.
--at Virginia 72, North Carolina 68. I had a feeling about this one. That's why I put it on the GOI yesterday.
--at Xavier 73, Cincinnati 71 (OT). This one rarely disappoints and last night was no exception.
III. Weekend Forecast
Friday
--Notre Dame at Marquette. ND needs some big wins badly.
Saturday
--Cal at Arizona. Bears need to get that RPI (95) up if they wanna dance.
--Arkansas at Auburn. The Heath Seat is very warm at this point.
--George Washington at Charlotte. GW needs it for seeding; Charlotte needs it to get in the NCAA picture.
--Duke at Georgetown. HUGE chance for the Hoyas to show that they are a legit tourney team.
--Missouri at Kansas State. Important game for two Big 12 middlers.
--Nebraska at Kansas. Ditto.
--Colorado at Oklahoma State. Same.
--Texas Tech at Oklahoma. You get the idea.
--Alabama at LSU. For a leg up on West supremacy.
--South Carolina at Kentucky. Are the Cats back?
--UConn at Louisville. The Cards badly need a quality win.
--Boston College at Miami-FL. The Canes are starting to roll, but BC could use a win.
--Wake Forest at NC State. Wake looked better against Clemson this week.
--Iowa at Michigan State. They great match ups never stop in the Big 10 this season.
--DePaul at Providence. Demons need to get above .500 to stay alive.
--Western Kentucky at South Alabama. For the Belt's bracket spot on Monday.
--Florida at Tennessee. The two best teams in the SEC East.
--Houston at UAB. For second fiddle to Memphis in CUSA.
--West Virginia at UCLA. A non-conference treat in conference season.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Syracuse needs road wins.
Sunday
--Rutgers at Cincinnati. Pretty important for the long-term viability of both teams.
--North Carolina at Florida State. UNC suddenly finds itself in need of a win.
--Wichita State at Missouri State. Big MVC matchup with the logjam at the top.
I really do not know where to begin here. WKU had reeled off six wins in a row, but were absolutely destroyed at Troy last night. Sometimes you have an off night. Sometimes the other team plays way above their normal level. Sometimes you can't throw it the ocean. Sometimes that all happens on the same night on the road. That was the case last night. The Toppers elected to engage in Troy's uptempo Three-festival, and shot 5-38 (not a typo) from beyond the arc including 1-21 in the second half. The game was actually pretty close until the 11 min mark of the second half when Troy made four consecutive threes to break the game wide open. The last 4 minutes consisted of alley-oop dunks and a more threes for the Trojans. Bobby Dixon, the Trojans fine point guard, went straight past ludicrous speed and barrelled into plaid with 18 points, 16 assists, 9 rebs, and 5 steals.
The Tops will try to pick up the pieces on the road at league-leading South Alabama tomorrow night. The enigmatic Tops could certainly use a nice road win to restore some confidence.
II. Last Night's GOI
--at Missouri State 71, Southern Illinois 63. Bears get the big win they have been looking for.
--at Virginia 72, North Carolina 68. I had a feeling about this one. That's why I put it on the GOI yesterday.
--at Xavier 73, Cincinnati 71 (OT). This one rarely disappoints and last night was no exception.
III. Weekend Forecast
Friday
--Notre Dame at Marquette. ND needs some big wins badly.
Saturday
--Cal at Arizona. Bears need to get that RPI (95) up if they wanna dance.
--Arkansas at Auburn. The Heath Seat is very warm at this point.
--George Washington at Charlotte. GW needs it for seeding; Charlotte needs it to get in the NCAA picture.
--Duke at Georgetown. HUGE chance for the Hoyas to show that they are a legit tourney team.
--Missouri at Kansas State. Important game for two Big 12 middlers.
--Nebraska at Kansas. Ditto.
--Colorado at Oklahoma State. Same.
--Texas Tech at Oklahoma. You get the idea.
--Alabama at LSU. For a leg up on West supremacy.
--South Carolina at Kentucky. Are the Cats back?
--UConn at Louisville. The Cards badly need a quality win.
--Boston College at Miami-FL. The Canes are starting to roll, but BC could use a win.
--Wake Forest at NC State. Wake looked better against Clemson this week.
--Iowa at Michigan State. They great match ups never stop in the Big 10 this season.
--DePaul at Providence. Demons need to get above .500 to stay alive.
--Western Kentucky at South Alabama. For the Belt's bracket spot on Monday.
--Florida at Tennessee. The two best teams in the SEC East.
--Houston at UAB. For second fiddle to Memphis in CUSA.
--West Virginia at UCLA. A non-conference treat in conference season.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Syracuse needs road wins.
Sunday
--Rutgers at Cincinnati. Pretty important for the long-term viability of both teams.
--North Carolina at Florida State. UNC suddenly finds itself in need of a win.
--Wichita State at Missouri State. Big MVC matchup with the logjam at the top.
Thursday, January 19, 2006
Alabama Smackdown; Weekend Forecast
I. Troy Blasts Toppers, 76-49
I really do not know where to begin here. WKU had reeled off six wins in a row, but were absolutely destroyed at Troy last night. Sometimes you have an off night. Sometimes the other team plays way above their normal level. Sometimes you can't throw it the ocean. Sometimes that all happens on the same night on the road. That was the case last night. The Toppers elected to engage in Troy's uptempo Three-festival, and shot 5-38 (not a typo) from beyond the arc including 1-21 in the second half. The game was actually pretty close until the 11 min mark of the second half when Troy made four consecutive threes to break the game wide open. The last 4 minutes consisted of alley-oop dunks and a more threes for the Trojans. Bobby Dixon, the Trojans fine point guard, went straight past ludicrous speed and barrelled into plaid with 18 points, 16 assists, 9 rebs, and 5 steals.
The Tops will try to pick up the pieces on the road at league-leading South Alabama tomorrow night. The enigmatic Tops could certainly use a nice road win to restore some confidence.
II. Last Night's GOI
--at Missouri State 71, Southern Illinois 63. Bears get the big win they have been looking for.
--at Virginia 72, North Carolina 68. I had a feeling about this one. That's why I put it on the GOI yesterday.
--at Xavier 73, Cincinnati 71 (OT). This one rarely disappoints and last night was no exception.
III. Weekend Forecast
Friday
--Notre Dame at Marquette. ND needs some big wins badly.
Saturday
--Cal at Arizona. Bears need to get that RPI (95) up if they wanna dance.
--Arkansas at Auburn. The Heath Seat is very warm at this point.
--George Washington at Charlotte. GW needs it for seeding; Charlotte needs it to get in the NCAA picture.
--Duke at Georgetown. HUGE chance for the Hoyas to show that they are a legit tourney team.
--Missouri at Kansas State. Important game for two Big 12 middlers.
--Nebraska at Kansas. Ditto.
--Colorado at Oklahoma State. Same.
--Texas Tech at Oklahoma. You get the idea.
--Alabama at LSU. For a leg up on West supremacy.
--South Carolina at Kentucky. Are the Cats back?
--UConn at Louisville. The Cards badly need a quality win.
--Boston College at Miami-FL. The Canes are starting to roll, but BC could use a win.
--Wake Forest at NC State. Wake looked better against Clemson this week.
--Iowa at Michigan State. They great match ups never stop in the Big 10 this season.
--DePaul at Providence. Demons need to get above .500 to stay alive.
--Western Kentucky at South Alabama. For the Belt's bracket spot on Monday.
--Florida at Tennessee. The two best teams in the SEC East.
--Houston at UAB. For second fiddle to Memphis in CUSA.
--West Virginia at UCLA. A non-conference treat in conference season.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Syracuse needs road wins.
Sunday
--Rutgers at Cincinnati. Pretty important for the long-term viability of both teams.
--North Carolina at Florida State. UNC suddenly finds itself in need of a win.
--Wichita State at Missouri State. Big MVC matchup with the logjam at the top.
--
I really do not know where to begin here. WKU had reeled off six wins in a row, but were absolutely destroyed at Troy last night. Sometimes you have an off night. Sometimes the other team plays way above their normal level. Sometimes you can't throw it the ocean. Sometimes that all happens on the same night on the road. That was the case last night. The Toppers elected to engage in Troy's uptempo Three-festival, and shot 5-38 (not a typo) from beyond the arc including 1-21 in the second half. The game was actually pretty close until the 11 min mark of the second half when Troy made four consecutive threes to break the game wide open. The last 4 minutes consisted of alley-oop dunks and a more threes for the Trojans. Bobby Dixon, the Trojans fine point guard, went straight past ludicrous speed and barrelled into plaid with 18 points, 16 assists, 9 rebs, and 5 steals.
The Tops will try to pick up the pieces on the road at league-leading South Alabama tomorrow night. The enigmatic Tops could certainly use a nice road win to restore some confidence.
II. Last Night's GOI
--at Missouri State 71, Southern Illinois 63. Bears get the big win they have been looking for.
--at Virginia 72, North Carolina 68. I had a feeling about this one. That's why I put it on the GOI yesterday.
--at Xavier 73, Cincinnati 71 (OT). This one rarely disappoints and last night was no exception.
III. Weekend Forecast
Friday
--Notre Dame at Marquette. ND needs some big wins badly.
Saturday
--Cal at Arizona. Bears need to get that RPI (95) up if they wanna dance.
--Arkansas at Auburn. The Heath Seat is very warm at this point.
--George Washington at Charlotte. GW needs it for seeding; Charlotte needs it to get in the NCAA picture.
--Duke at Georgetown. HUGE chance for the Hoyas to show that they are a legit tourney team.
--Missouri at Kansas State. Important game for two Big 12 middlers.
--Nebraska at Kansas. Ditto.
--Colorado at Oklahoma State. Same.
--Texas Tech at Oklahoma. You get the idea.
--Alabama at LSU. For a leg up on West supremacy.
--South Carolina at Kentucky. Are the Cats back?
--UConn at Louisville. The Cards badly need a quality win.
--Boston College at Miami-FL. The Canes are starting to roll, but BC could use a win.
--Wake Forest at NC State. Wake looked better against Clemson this week.
--Iowa at Michigan State. They great match ups never stop in the Big 10 this season.
--DePaul at Providence. Demons need to get above .500 to stay alive.
--Western Kentucky at South Alabama. For the Belt's bracket spot on Monday.
--Florida at Tennessee. The two best teams in the SEC East.
--Houston at UAB. For second fiddle to Memphis in CUSA.
--West Virginia at UCLA. A non-conference treat in conference season.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Syracuse needs road wins.
Sunday
--Rutgers at Cincinnati. Pretty important for the long-term viability of both teams.
--North Carolina at Florida State. UNC suddenly finds itself in need of a win.
--Wichita State at Missouri State. Big MVC matchup with the logjam at the top.
--
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Shiny, New Lockbox
I. Bubble Getting Bigger
Last week we welcomed preseason darlings Oklahoma and Kentucky to the Bubble. They both are still squarely on it.
This week, let's roll out the red, bubbly carpet to Louisville and Boston College. The pollsters have given the Cards many free passes this season, but no one is safe from the wrath of the Bracket Board. The Cards are imposters, possessing ZERO top 50 wins (their best is over #60 Akron), a 1-3 Big East record, a ballooning RPI of 79, and a double-digit loss last night to a struggling St. John's club. It is not looking good for UL. They welcome UConn to Da Ville on Saturday.
Boston College has a much healthier RPI (32), but they are 1-3 in the ACC and also have ZERO top 50 RPI wins. They are still in at this point, but they are going to need some wins soon, and they are on the road for their next two (Miami-FL and North Carolina). They did get a nice win at Holy Cross last night. Wake Forest (0-3 in the ACC) is on deck if they don't pick up some ACC wins soon.
Have a look at the updated Lockbox to see what the conference bubble breakdown looks like.
Notes:
1. With DePaul falling to 8-8 (no team .500 or worse has ever gotten into the NCAA tourney) and Louisville's loss to SJU, the Big East lost two slots overnight. I filled those slots (reluctantly) with Michigan and Washington State. Nebraska's loss led me to put Oklahoma back in. These three were my "first three out" in Monday's bracket.
2. Miami-FL and Mississippi have been added to the Lockbox this week.
3. There is a LOT of room for Big 12 teams to step up. Virtually ANYONE outside of Iowa State and Texas could get hot and play themselves right into third place in the Big 12 and into the bracket.
4. Who would have thought Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisville would all be in danger of missing the NCAA tourney in the same season? Weird.
5. Historically, the Bubble hovers around the 9-13 range in Jan and early Feb, but will be down to 5-7 slots (maybe less) come selection Sunday. Just FYI.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--14 at-large bids look taken at this point. There are 22 teams listed as "virtual locks," but eight of them are conference leaders. That means that they account for 14 at-large bids. Consult the Lockbox and view the teams listed in black. It is hard to imagine any of those teams missing at this point. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Eight other bids look pretty safe, but we need a little more confirmation from Wake Forest, Maryland, Tennessee, LSU, George Washington, Northern Iowa, Creighton and Southern Illinois.
--That leaves 12 bids for the Bubble Boys. The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox. There have been a few changes since Monday.
II. Last Night's GOI
--Marquette 82, at DePaul 79. MU withstood a furious late rally by the home team to secure a precious conference road win.
--Kentucky 69, at Georgia 55. So, UK has employed a sports psychologist to work with the team. I wonder if he makes $2+ million per year? In any event, the Cats' effort was much better against the scrappy Dawgs.
--Boston College 63, at Holy Cross 53. Craig Smith went for 19 and 17. Nice win.
--at Indiana 62, Illinois 60. How much fun is the Big Ten this year? Not many teams have a 44-19 run and only win by two, but that's what the Hoosiers did.
--Iowa State 88, at Nebraska 75. Still looking for that third NCAA team for the Big 12.
--at Northern Illinois 64, Ohio 59. NIU already has a 2-game lead in the loss column in the MAC West.
--at St. John's 68, Louisville 56. Cards are 1-3 and reeling in the Big East. This is a game that they could not afford to lose with UConn coming in on Saturday. In fact, their next four games are rough ones: host UConn and Cincinnati, and road trips to Rutgers and Villanova. UL could dig a whole from whence they cannot emerge. They need to right the ship in a hurry.
III. Tonight's GOI
--Arkansas at Alabama. SEC West and NCAA bubble implications.
--Bradley at Creighton. The Braves need this one if they want to stay in the NCAA picture.
--NC State at Duke. The two best teams in the ACC.
--Texas A&M at Kansas State. There are bids out their for any Big 12 team that wants to step up. These two are certainly candidates.
--Tennessee at Memphis. In-state rivalry alert! And it means something this year!
--Clemson at Miami-FL. Miami-FL is playing much better now than earlier in the season.
--LSU at Mississippi State. See Arkansas vs. Alabama.
--Wisconsin at Ohio State. The Badgers are in the Big Ten driver's seat, but this is their first road test against a fellow contender.
--Pitt at Rutgers. Undefeated Pitt in the RAC. This should be a good one.
--Louisiana Tech at Utah State. Important WAC tilt; LA Tech is 4-0 in conference.
--Georgia Tech at Wake Forest. GT can get onto the NCAA radar with a win here. Wake slides onto the Bubble with a loss.
Last week we welcomed preseason darlings Oklahoma and Kentucky to the Bubble. They both are still squarely on it.
This week, let's roll out the red, bubbly carpet to Louisville and Boston College. The pollsters have given the Cards many free passes this season, but no one is safe from the wrath of the Bracket Board. The Cards are imposters, possessing ZERO top 50 wins (their best is over #60 Akron), a 1-3 Big East record, a ballooning RPI of 79, and a double-digit loss last night to a struggling St. John's club. It is not looking good for UL. They welcome UConn to Da Ville on Saturday.
Boston College has a much healthier RPI (32), but they are 1-3 in the ACC and also have ZERO top 50 RPI wins. They are still in at this point, but they are going to need some wins soon, and they are on the road for their next two (Miami-FL and North Carolina). They did get a nice win at Holy Cross last night. Wake Forest (0-3 in the ACC) is on deck if they don't pick up some ACC wins soon.
Have a look at the updated Lockbox to see what the conference bubble breakdown looks like.
Notes:
1. With DePaul falling to 8-8 (no team .500 or worse has ever gotten into the NCAA tourney) and Louisville's loss to SJU, the Big East lost two slots overnight. I filled those slots (reluctantly) with Michigan and Washington State. Nebraska's loss led me to put Oklahoma back in. These three were my "first three out" in Monday's bracket.
2. Miami-FL and Mississippi have been added to the Lockbox this week.
3. There is a LOT of room for Big 12 teams to step up. Virtually ANYONE outside of Iowa State and Texas could get hot and play themselves right into third place in the Big 12 and into the bracket.
4. Who would have thought Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisville would all be in danger of missing the NCAA tourney in the same season? Weird.
5. Historically, the Bubble hovers around the 9-13 range in Jan and early Feb, but will be down to 5-7 slots (maybe less) come selection Sunday. Just FYI.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--14 at-large bids look taken at this point. There are 22 teams listed as "virtual locks," but eight of them are conference leaders. That means that they account for 14 at-large bids. Consult the Lockbox and view the teams listed in black. It is hard to imagine any of those teams missing at this point. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--Eight other bids look pretty safe, but we need a little more confirmation from Wake Forest, Maryland, Tennessee, LSU, George Washington, Northern Iowa, Creighton and Southern Illinois.
--That leaves 12 bids for the Bubble Boys. The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox. There have been a few changes since Monday.
II. Last Night's GOI
--Marquette 82, at DePaul 79. MU withstood a furious late rally by the home team to secure a precious conference road win.
--Kentucky 69, at Georgia 55. So, UK has employed a sports psychologist to work with the team. I wonder if he makes $2+ million per year? In any event, the Cats' effort was much better against the scrappy Dawgs.
--Boston College 63, at Holy Cross 53. Craig Smith went for 19 and 17. Nice win.
--at Indiana 62, Illinois 60. How much fun is the Big Ten this year? Not many teams have a 44-19 run and only win by two, but that's what the Hoosiers did.
--Iowa State 88, at Nebraska 75. Still looking for that third NCAA team for the Big 12.
--at Northern Illinois 64, Ohio 59. NIU already has a 2-game lead in the loss column in the MAC West.
--at St. John's 68, Louisville 56. Cards are 1-3 and reeling in the Big East. This is a game that they could not afford to lose with UConn coming in on Saturday. In fact, their next four games are rough ones: host UConn and Cincinnati, and road trips to Rutgers and Villanova. UL could dig a whole from whence they cannot emerge. They need to right the ship in a hurry.
III. Tonight's GOI
--Arkansas at Alabama. SEC West and NCAA bubble implications.
--Bradley at Creighton. The Braves need this one if they want to stay in the NCAA picture.
--NC State at Duke. The two best teams in the ACC.
--Texas A&M at Kansas State. There are bids out their for any Big 12 team that wants to step up. These two are certainly candidates.
--Tennessee at Memphis. In-state rivalry alert! And it means something this year!
--Clemson at Miami-FL. Miami-FL is playing much better now than earlier in the season.
--LSU at Mississippi State. See Arkansas vs. Alabama.
--Wisconsin at Ohio State. The Badgers are in the Big Ten driver's seat, but this is their first road test against a fellow contender.
--Pitt at Rutgers. Undefeated Pitt in the RAC. This should be a good one.
--Louisiana Tech at Utah State. Important WAC tilt; LA Tech is 4-0 in conference.
--Georgia Tech at Wake Forest. GT can get onto the NCAA radar with a win here. Wake slides onto the Bubble with a loss.
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
12 Days 'til Bracket Buster Pairings
I. Less Than Two Weeks Until Bracket Buster Pairings Announcement
The ESPN Bracket Buster has swelled to an incredible 100 teams this season, encompassing nearly a full third of all D-I college hoops teams. Needless to say, many of those games are going to have little impact on the bracket. Furthermore, the power is inordinately tilted toward the home side. We are now just twelve days away from the announcement of the pairings.
I have created a Bracket Buster Page that will track all 100 teams from now until the pairings are announced on Jan 29. I will update it again next Tuesday (the 24th), and then daily up until Sunday the 29th.
Teams from the same conference obviously will not be matched up in the Bracket Buster. Also, it is not determined by RPI alone (though it is a big component), but a combination of record, schedule strength, RPI, impact on NCAA selection profile, and probably perceived TV marketability will play into the pairings. If teams were matched up today, this is how the 11 TV games might look.
1. Bucknell at Northern Iowa
2. Missouri State at UW-Milwaukee
3. Akron at Old Dominion
4. George Mason at Creighton
5. Northern Illinois at Southern Illinois
6. Tennessee Tech at Wichita State
7. Buffalo at Nevada
8. Louisiana Tech at Manhattan
9. Northwestern State at Winthrop
10. Samford at Western Kentucky
11. Butler at Iona
II. Last Night's GOI
--at Missouri 89, Kansas 86 (OT). Keeps Kansas out of the NCAA convo. Could Missouri be in for a run in the weakened Big 12?
--at Northern Iowa 71, Southern Illinois 65 (2 OT). Battle of league leaders did not disappoint. SIU still leads by a game in the MVC,
--UConn 88, at Syracuse 80. Not nearly as close as the score indicates. UConn led 40-17 at one point. The Huskies certainly looked like 1-seed material.
III. Tonight's GOI
--Marquette at DePaul. Both of these teams are looking like classic Bubble Boys at this point.
--Kentucky at Georgia. NCAA Bubble and SEC implications riding on this one.
--Boston College at Holy Cross. DANGEROUS game for BC.
--Illinois at Indiana. Two of the Big Ten's bevy of quality clubs.
--Iowa State at Nebraska. Huskers looking for a win to put them on the map. Cyclones have been wildly inconsistent.
--Ohio at Northern Illinois. Interdivisional battle of two of the better MAC teams.
--Louisville at St. John's. Loss here puts the Cards in a bad spot with UConn coming into town on Saturday.
The ESPN Bracket Buster has swelled to an incredible 100 teams this season, encompassing nearly a full third of all D-I college hoops teams. Needless to say, many of those games are going to have little impact on the bracket. Furthermore, the power is inordinately tilted toward the home side. We are now just twelve days away from the announcement of the pairings.
I have created a Bracket Buster Page that will track all 100 teams from now until the pairings are announced on Jan 29. I will update it again next Tuesday (the 24th), and then daily up until Sunday the 29th.
Teams from the same conference obviously will not be matched up in the Bracket Buster. Also, it is not determined by RPI alone (though it is a big component), but a combination of record, schedule strength, RPI, impact on NCAA selection profile, and probably perceived TV marketability will play into the pairings. If teams were matched up today, this is how the 11 TV games might look.
1. Bucknell at Northern Iowa
2. Missouri State at UW-Milwaukee
3. Akron at Old Dominion
4. George Mason at Creighton
5. Northern Illinois at Southern Illinois
6. Tennessee Tech at Wichita State
7. Buffalo at Nevada
8. Louisiana Tech at Manhattan
9. Northwestern State at Winthrop
10. Samford at Western Kentucky
11. Butler at Iona
II. Last Night's GOI
--at Missouri 89, Kansas 86 (OT). Keeps Kansas out of the NCAA convo. Could Missouri be in for a run in the weakened Big 12?
--at Northern Iowa 71, Southern Illinois 65 (2 OT). Battle of league leaders did not disappoint. SIU still leads by a game in the MVC,
--UConn 88, at Syracuse 80. Not nearly as close as the score indicates. UConn led 40-17 at one point. The Huskies certainly looked like 1-seed material.
III. Tonight's GOI
--Marquette at DePaul. Both of these teams are looking like classic Bubble Boys at this point.
--Kentucky at Georgia. NCAA Bubble and SEC implications riding on this one.
--Boston College at Holy Cross. DANGEROUS game for BC.
--Illinois at Indiana. Two of the Big Ten's bevy of quality clubs.
--Iowa State at Nebraska. Huskers looking for a win to put them on the map. Cyclones have been wildly inconsistent.
--Ohio at Northern Illinois. Interdivisional battle of two of the better MAC teams.
--Louisville at St. John's. Loss here puts the Cards in a bad spot with UConn coming into town on Saturday.
Monday, January 16, 2006
WKU Goes Nutts, 87-63; Bracket Update
I. 39-9 Run Fuels WKU Rout of
As they often have this season, the Hilltoppers lurched out of the gate in unimpressive style and allowed the visiting Indians to build a 23-17 lead at the under-eight minute media timeout in the first half. That lead would evaporate posthaste, as
The Tops led 60-36 at one point in the second half before the Indians made their only real run of the second half to close is to 64-54. Some questionable officiating led WKU coach Darrin Horn to shed his jacket like in WWE-like fashion, whirl it into his bench, and engage in a sonic assault that is still echoing in Diddle Arena. This earned him a much-desired (apparently) technical foul. This sparked yet another Topper run, only this time it was a relatively meager 15-4 burst to put the game far, far away. Junior G/F Benson Callier tied a career high with 21 points, and the Toppers enjoyed solid point guard minutes from both SO Ty Rogers (18 mins, 0 turnovers) and FR Orlando Mendez-Valdez . This was the Tops' second win over Dickey Nutt's Indians in a span of nine days. WKU hits the road at new Belt member
For the first time since I started doing these projections in 2002, the Kentucky Wildcats are not in the bracket. Their lack of quality wins (ZERO in the Top 50 RPI), mediocre RPI (52), 0-2 start in the SEC, and 5-5 record in their last ten games is just too much to overcome at this point.
1. I'm not sure Nebraska should be in with their 91 RPI, but the Big 12 has only two sure tourney teams at this point (Texas and Iowa State), and Nebraska's profile was as good as any of the other last 2 or 3 that got in.
2. Louisville gets the benefit of the doubt for one more week. They have to beat a good team at some point, though, and it probably will have to be UConn on Saturday if they want to stay in the bracket.
3. Nevada gets the same treatment as Lousville, but they are in serious trouble, too. The difference is that the Wolfpack do not have a lot of high quality teams left on the schedule. They will need to roll up a gaudy record and hope for the best. There is a very good chance that they will need to win the WAC tourney.
3. UW-Milwaukee got in as an at-large team this week, mainly on strong RPI (18). No team worse than 33 has ever been left out.
Multi-bid Conference Breakdown
Creighton, Wichita State, and LSU were the biggest gainers this week. Louisville, Boston College, DePaul, Wake Forest, Nevada, and Missouri State are looking a lot less certain.
Big East (9): Villanova, UConn, Pitt, Cincinnati, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette, Louisville, DePaul
Big Ten (6): Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa
ACC (6): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
SEC (5): Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
MVC (5): Northern Iowa, Creighton, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Missouri State
Pac-10 (3): UCLA, Arizona, Washington
Big 12 (3): Texas, Iowa State, Nebraska
WAC (2): Louisiana Tech*, Nevada
CUSA (2): Memphis, UAB
A-10 (2): Xavier, George Washington,
Horizon (2): Wright State*, UW-Milwaukee
First Five Out: Michigan, Oklahoma, Kentucky, George Mason, Washington State
Others: Miami-FL, Kansas State, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia Tech, Colorado, Georgia, Colorado State, Georgetown, Clemson, Bradley, Florida State
--Kansas at Missouri. Border War with Bubble implications.
--Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa. Titanic battle of MVC powers.
--UConn at Syracuse. Statement game for both teams; UConn as a 1-seed candidate and 'Cuse as a legit Big East title contender.
A Bracket Buster update is on tap for tomorrow.
Friday, January 13, 2006
Tops Survive UALR; Weekend Forecast
I. Tops Hold On Late Against UALR, 74-70
A basketball game consists of many small battles: the rebounding battle, the turnover battle, the tempo battle, and the like. Last night, the Arkansas-Little Rock won a couple of very important battles, but ultimately still lost the war. For the final 32 minutes of the game, they certainly won the physicality and tempo battles. The Trojan's intense, in-your-shorts half-court defense brought them back in a game that looked like a laugher for the first eight minutes.
II. Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Holy Cross at Bucknell. Patriot League powers in Round 1 of the season.
--Florida State at Boston College. BC is 0-3 in the league. Losing to FSU to go 0-4 would bring their NCAA candidacy into serious question...and vault the 'Noles into serious consideration.
--Vanderbilt at Arkansas. Vandy is riding high after the Kentucky win. Ark must protect their home court.
--Xavier at Charlotte. Bubble and A-10 implications.
--Syracuse at Cincinnati. All Big East games seem to be big ones at this point
--Duke at Clemson. The Tigers have lost to Elon and beaten Wake Forest. The latter team had best show up.
--Georgetown at UConn. If this is the Hoyas comeback year, then let's see them beat a decent team, because I'm unimpressed at this point.
--UNC-Wilmington at Hofstra. Good battle in the competitive CAA.
--Michigan at Illinois. See my comments re: Georgetown and apply them to Michigan.
--Kansas State at Kansas. In-state rivalry alert! Hey, this year, the Wildcats can compete and it means just as much to their tourney hopes as it does to the Jayhawks.
--Alabama at Kentucky. Two down-and-out, desparate teams. 'Bama needs it more, if you can believe that.
--Tennessee at LSU. Time for LSU to win a game that matters.
--Georgia Tech at NC State. Jackets have won 5 of 6. Tough roadie, though.
--Oklahoma at Texas A&M. Sooners are reeling and the Aggies need to solidify themselves as an upper-tier Big 12 team.
--Villanova at Texas. WOW. Titanic non-conference match up in the conference season.
--Washington at UCLA. Washington needs a big win. UCLA needs to stay in first place.
--Marquette at West Virginia. Another Big East game with Bubble implications.
--Misssouri State at Wichita State. Both are 4-2 in the MVC, so it's a biggie.
Sunday
--Rutgers at DePaul. Big East, Bubble, broken record, you get the idea.
--Pitt at Louisville. Pitt is undefeated and the Cards already have sustained a home conference loss. Plus, UL lacks quality wins of any sort. Should be a good one.
--Wake Forest at Maryland. Both trounced by Duke this week; plus Wake lost to Clemson.
--Michigan State at Ohio State. Have the Spartans ironed things out? Is Ohio State a legit contender for the Big Ten title?
--Virginia at Virginia Tech. In-state rivalry alert! Both need ACC wins whenever they can get them. Both probably see this as a very winnable game.
Happy Hoopin' this weekend! Bracket coming on Monday.
Thursday, January 12, 2006
Travel Today
I am traveling and golfing today, so no detailed post.
My latest article on some quality teams that you may not see on national TV this season will be up sometime today on SCS.com. Check it out.
A massive weekend forecast is coming tomorrow.
My latest article on some quality teams that you may not see on national TV this season will be up sometime today on SCS.com. Check it out.
A massive weekend forecast is coming tomorrow.
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Bubblin' Over
I. Bubble Boys
First, I would like to extend an official Bubble Boy welcome to preseason darlings Oklahoma and Kentucky. Oklahoma was a consensus top 10 preseason team and Kentucky was top 15 and the preseason pick to win the SEC. At this point, both teams look like great NIT draws.
Oklahoma: 77 RPI; 9-4 overall; 0-2 in conf; 0-1 vs RPI top 50; 1-2 vs RPI top 100; lost at Nebraska and at home to Missouri
Kentucky: 33 RPI; 10-5 overall: 0-1 in conf; 0-4 vs RPI top 50; 4-4 vs RPI top 100; lost by 26 to Indiana, 27 to #119 RPI Kansas, and at home to Vandy
Both teams are tailspinning. In Kentucky's case, last night's loss is particularly puzzling because Randolph Morris made his return and played inspired, effective basketball...and Vandy (who did not play that well) still ended a 31-game losing streak in Rupp. The 'Dores collected their first win ever in that venue. Kelvin Sampson and Tubby Smith are both highly respected coaches, but both teams are in freefall right now. Weekend losses will almost certainly keep them out of the bracket on Monday (of course, I had Oklahoma out this past Monday).
Have a look at the updated Lockbox to see what the conference bubble breakdown looks like.
Notes:
1. SIU and Manhattan currently lead their conferences, so they get the top-slot auto bids, even though both would likely miss as at-large teams. SIU has lost to Monmouth and D-II Alaska-Anchorage and Manhattan has only 1 top 100 RPI win.
2. George Mason has been added to the Lockbox as a team to watch.
3. The Big Ten looks pretty cut and dried as of today. Michigan seems to be the only real bubble team at this point. If Northwestern wins a couple of more games, they might creep into the conversation. The top six have really separated themselves at the midway point of the season (Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa).
4. The Big East and SEC are a mess. Who knows what will shake out of those two conferences. The MVC knows it has six good teams, but not all six are going to the NCAA. Should be a dogfight in the Valley.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--12 at-large bids look taken at this point. There are 20 teams listed as "virtual locks," but eight of them are conference leaders. That means they account for 12 at-large bids. Consult the Lockbox and view the teams listed in black. It is hard to imagine any of those teams missing, although it is still early. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--11 other bids look pretty safe, but we need a little more confirmation from Boston College, Wake Forest, Maryland, Louisville, Syracuse, Washington, Tennessee, George Washington, Northern Iowa, Missouri State, and Nevada.
--That leaves 11 bids for the Bubble Boys. The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.
II. Last Night's GOI
--NC State 78, at Boston College 60. I'm starting to get a little concerned about BC. They are now 0-3 in ACC play and their RPI has dipped to 49. Another loss and they will have to be considered a bubble team.
--Vanderbilt 57, at Kentucky 52. Not only did Vandy end the 31-game losing streak in Rupp, but they did it without playing their best basketball.
--Wisconsin 64, at Minnesota 62. The Badgers led 25-6 at one point, before frittering away that entire cushion. Per usual, Wisconsin made tough plays down the stretch when they needed it.
III. Tonight's GOI (BIG Bubble Night)
--LSU at Arkansas. HUGE match up in the SEC West. Someone is going to win the West, and my money is on one of these two.
--Alabama at Auburn. In-state rivalry alert! Also pretty important; actually every game in the SEC West is important because anyone could win it.
--Wichita State at Bradley. Winner climbs a rung or two on the Bubble Boy ladder.
--Kansas at Colorado. The Jayhawks need to back up that good home performance against Kentucky with a win. The Buffs just missed being in the bracket on Monday.
--Maryland at Duke. Always interesting.
--Indiana at Michigan State. The Spartans simply cannot start 0-3 in conference can they? Can they?
--Creighton at Northern Iowa. The Blue Jays are without star Nate Funk for the rest of the season (shoulder).
--Syracuse at Notre Dame. Good test for the Orange and a game that ND desperately needs for its resume.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma State. Whoever wins, it will go a long way in the Big 12 race and in NCAA hopes.
--Villanova at Rutgers. The RAC is always a tough test and Rutgers has a competitive squad.
--Marquette at Seton Hall. Big bubble implications.
--Iona at St. Peter's. Two of the MAAC big three (Manhattan).
--Georgia at Tennessee. Felton's defense vs. Pearl's offense.
--Georgetown at West Virginia. Both need it badly, though G'town probably needs it more.
First, I would like to extend an official Bubble Boy welcome to preseason darlings Oklahoma and Kentucky. Oklahoma was a consensus top 10 preseason team and Kentucky was top 15 and the preseason pick to win the SEC. At this point, both teams look like great NIT draws.
Oklahoma: 77 RPI; 9-4 overall; 0-2 in conf; 0-1 vs RPI top 50; 1-2 vs RPI top 100; lost at Nebraska and at home to Missouri
Kentucky: 33 RPI; 10-5 overall: 0-1 in conf; 0-4 vs RPI top 50; 4-4 vs RPI top 100; lost by 26 to Indiana, 27 to #119 RPI Kansas, and at home to Vandy
Both teams are tailspinning. In Kentucky's case, last night's loss is particularly puzzling because Randolph Morris made his return and played inspired, effective basketball...and Vandy (who did not play that well) still ended a 31-game losing streak in Rupp. The 'Dores collected their first win ever in that venue. Kelvin Sampson and Tubby Smith are both highly respected coaches, but both teams are in freefall right now. Weekend losses will almost certainly keep them out of the bracket on Monday (of course, I had Oklahoma out this past Monday).
Have a look at the updated Lockbox to see what the conference bubble breakdown looks like.
Notes:
1. SIU and Manhattan currently lead their conferences, so they get the top-slot auto bids, even though both would likely miss as at-large teams. SIU has lost to Monmouth and D-II Alaska-Anchorage and Manhattan has only 1 top 100 RPI win.
2. George Mason has been added to the Lockbox as a team to watch.
3. The Big Ten looks pretty cut and dried as of today. Michigan seems to be the only real bubble team at this point. If Northwestern wins a couple of more games, they might creep into the conversation. The top six have really separated themselves at the midway point of the season (Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa).
4. The Big East and SEC are a mess. Who knows what will shake out of those two conferences. The MVC knows it has six good teams, but not all six are going to the NCAA. Should be a dogfight in the Valley.
The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--12 at-large bids look taken at this point. There are 20 teams listed as "virtual locks," but eight of them are conference leaders. That means they account for 12 at-large bids. Consult the Lockbox and view the teams listed in black. It is hard to imagine any of those teams missing, although it is still early. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--11 other bids look pretty safe, but we need a little more confirmation from Boston College, Wake Forest, Maryland, Louisville, Syracuse, Washington, Tennessee, George Washington, Northern Iowa, Missouri State, and Nevada.
--That leaves 11 bids for the Bubble Boys. The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red in the Lockbox.
II. Last Night's GOI
--NC State 78, at Boston College 60. I'm starting to get a little concerned about BC. They are now 0-3 in ACC play and their RPI has dipped to 49. Another loss and they will have to be considered a bubble team.
--Vanderbilt 57, at Kentucky 52. Not only did Vandy end the 31-game losing streak in Rupp, but they did it without playing their best basketball.
--Wisconsin 64, at Minnesota 62. The Badgers led 25-6 at one point, before frittering away that entire cushion. Per usual, Wisconsin made tough plays down the stretch when they needed it.
III. Tonight's GOI (BIG Bubble Night)
--LSU at Arkansas. HUGE match up in the SEC West. Someone is going to win the West, and my money is on one of these two.
--Alabama at Auburn. In-state rivalry alert! Also pretty important; actually every game in the SEC West is important because anyone could win it.
--Wichita State at Bradley. Winner climbs a rung or two on the Bubble Boy ladder.
--Kansas at Colorado. The Jayhawks need to back up that good home performance against Kentucky with a win. The Buffs just missed being in the bracket on Monday.
--Maryland at Duke. Always interesting.
--Indiana at Michigan State. The Spartans simply cannot start 0-3 in conference can they? Can they?
--Creighton at Northern Iowa. The Blue Jays are without star Nate Funk for the rest of the season (shoulder).
--Syracuse at Notre Dame. Good test for the Orange and a game that ND desperately needs for its resume.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma State. Whoever wins, it will go a long way in the Big 12 race and in NCAA hopes.
--Villanova at Rutgers. The RAC is always a tough test and Rutgers has a competitive squad.
--Marquette at Seton Hall. Big bubble implications.
--Iona at St. Peter's. Two of the MAAC big three (Manhattan).
--Georgia at Tennessee. Felton's defense vs. Pearl's offense.
--Georgetown at West Virginia. Both need it badly, though G'town probably needs it more.
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
Bracket Buster Update
I. Bracket Bustin'
The ESPN Bracket Buster has swelled to an incredible 100 teams this season, encompassing nearly a full third of all D-I college hoops teams. Needless to say, many of those games are going to have little impact on the bracket. Furthermore, the power is inordinately tilted toward the home side. It would be tough to create eleven highly competitive TV match ups if the pairings were done today, but it's still nearly a three weeks before the match ups are announced on Jan 29. Hopefully, some of the assigned road teams can step it up in conference play.
I have created a Bracket Buster Page that will track all 100 teams from now until Jan 29. It will be updated weekly until the end of month, and I will attempt to do it daily during the week leading up to the 29th. It includes teams' conference affiliation, current records, winning %, and RPI.
Teams from the same conference obviously will not be matched up in the Bracket Buster. Also, it is not determined by RPI alone (though it is a big component), but a combination of record, schedule strength, RPI, impact on NCAA selection profile, and probably perceived TV marketability will play into the pairings. If teams were matched up today, this is how the 11 TV games might look.
1. Bucknell at Northern Iowa
2. Missouri State at UW-Milwaukee
3. Northern Illinois at Old Dominion
4. George Mason at Nevada
5. Buffalo at Southern Illinois
6. Akron at Manhattan
7. Fresno State at Creighton
8. Samford at Western Kentucky
9. Northwestern State at Winthrop
10. Illinois-Chicago at Wichita State
11. Butler at Bradley
II. Last Night's GOI
--at UConn 70, Cincinnati 59. The Huskies did get their marquee win and a big RPI boost (42 to 25 today!).
--Texas 78, at Iowa State 58. Statement made. Since the Tennessee debacle, the Longhorns have won every game by double digits, including an 11-point road triumph over a great Memphis team and this trouncing of the the the Cyclones in Ames. I think it's safe to say that the 'Horns are back.
--Gonzaga 81, at Santa Clara 68. The Broncos hung tough for a good while, but the Zags are looking at an undefeated conference season unless something crazy happens. And in conference play, that could very well happen at some point.
--Arkansas State 74, Ark-Little Rock 70. The injury-riddled Indians found a way against the favored Trojans in the Rock. Classic in-state rivalry game.
III. Tonight's GOI
--NC State at Boston College. Both need quality wins. NC State beat GWU, but we are still not sure how good the Colonials are. BC's best win is over a solid, but not spectacular Buffalo squad.
--Vanderbilt at Kentucky. The 'Cats need to respond after the gruesome flaying they absorbed at Kansas. Vandy is looking to establish itself as a solid NCAA club.
--Wisconsin at Minnesota. We know the Badgers are GREAT in Madison. But, they are 0-2 in true road games (at Wake Forest and Pitt). Of course, both of those teams are better than the Gophers who just lost a home game to Northwestern.
The ESPN Bracket Buster has swelled to an incredible 100 teams this season, encompassing nearly a full third of all D-I college hoops teams. Needless to say, many of those games are going to have little impact on the bracket. Furthermore, the power is inordinately tilted toward the home side. It would be tough to create eleven highly competitive TV match ups if the pairings were done today, but it's still nearly a three weeks before the match ups are announced on Jan 29. Hopefully, some of the assigned road teams can step it up in conference play.
I have created a Bracket Buster Page that will track all 100 teams from now until Jan 29. It will be updated weekly until the end of month, and I will attempt to do it daily during the week leading up to the 29th. It includes teams' conference affiliation, current records, winning %, and RPI.
Teams from the same conference obviously will not be matched up in the Bracket Buster. Also, it is not determined by RPI alone (though it is a big component), but a combination of record, schedule strength, RPI, impact on NCAA selection profile, and probably perceived TV marketability will play into the pairings. If teams were matched up today, this is how the 11 TV games might look.
1. Bucknell at Northern Iowa
2. Missouri State at UW-Milwaukee
3. Northern Illinois at Old Dominion
4. George Mason at Nevada
5. Buffalo at Southern Illinois
6. Akron at Manhattan
7. Fresno State at Creighton
8. Samford at Western Kentucky
9. Northwestern State at Winthrop
10. Illinois-Chicago at Wichita State
11. Butler at Bradley
II. Last Night's GOI
--at UConn 70, Cincinnati 59. The Huskies did get their marquee win and a big RPI boost (42 to 25 today!).
--Texas 78, at Iowa State 58. Statement made. Since the Tennessee debacle, the Longhorns have won every game by double digits, including an 11-point road triumph over a great Memphis team and this trouncing of the the the Cyclones in Ames. I think it's safe to say that the 'Horns are back.
--Gonzaga 81, at Santa Clara 68. The Broncos hung tough for a good while, but the Zags are looking at an undefeated conference season unless something crazy happens. And in conference play, that could very well happen at some point.
--Arkansas State 74, Ark-Little Rock 70. The injury-riddled Indians found a way against the favored Trojans in the Rock. Classic in-state rivalry game.
III. Tonight's GOI
--NC State at Boston College. Both need quality wins. NC State beat GWU, but we are still not sure how good the Colonials are. BC's best win is over a solid, but not spectacular Buffalo squad.
--Vanderbilt at Kentucky. The 'Cats need to respond after the gruesome flaying they absorbed at Kansas. Vandy is looking to establish itself as a solid NCAA club.
--Wisconsin at Minnesota. We know the Badgers are GREAT in Madison. But, they are 0-2 in true road games (at Wake Forest and Pitt). Of course, both of those teams are better than the Gophers who just lost a home game to Northwestern.
Monday, January 09, 2006
WKU Bludgeons MTSU; 1/09 Bracket Update
I. Hilltoppers Stomp a Mud Hole in Blue Pegasi, 80-48
Seventeen minutes and six seconds. Many things can be accomplished in such a span. One could drive approximately 20 interstate miles. One could watch nearly all of a Seinfeld episode (sans commercials). Many track athletes can run a 5K (3.1 miles) in less time. That's how long Middle Tennessee went without a field goal in the second half. I cannot remember a stretch as long in ANY game I've ever watched. Brick after brick, airball after airball, the dry spell seemingly would never end. Give much credit to the active and pesky Topper defense, but a good part of this was just a statistical anomaly.
It was a 1-point contest near the end of the first half, as MTSU trailed 32-31. But, an 8-0 run to end the half and the Drought That Would Not End in the second half fueled an eternal 48-17 Topper run over the last 21:06 of the game. All this with sharpshooting guard Anthony Winchester going 0-4 from 3-land for the Tops. He still managed 14 points. Super-consistent G Courtney Lee paced the tops with 19 points. The Diddle crowd of 6k was also treated to two monster dunks by The Great Red Pretodactyl. One was a ridiculous left-handed follow-up dunk; the other was a full court breakaway that concluded with Wilborn leaving the planet just 6 inches inside the free throw line and ramming it home. Despite MTSU's struggles, this was clearly WKU's best outing of the season. Read more about the game and stats here.
II. Bracket Update!
Today's bracket is up and there are quite a few changes from last week.
Multi-bid Conference Breakdown
A couple of weird things are happening right now due the lack of conference games played. For example, Fresno State is in because they have no conference losses and have the lowest RPI among unblemished WAC teams. Therefore they win the projected automatic bid. Same with Manhattan (instead of Iona) in the MAAC. These things sort themselves out over the course of the season.
Big East (9): Villanova, UConn, Pitt, Cincinnati, DePaul, Syracuse, Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette
Big Ten (6): Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa
ACC (6): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College
SEC (5): Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Arizona, Washington, Washington State
MVC (3): Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Southern Illinois
Big 12 (3): Texas, Iowa State, Texas A&M
WAC (3): Nevada, Hawaii, Fresno State
CUSA (2): Memphis, UAB
A-10 (2): George Washington, Xavier
MAAC (2): Iona, Manhattan
Last Four Teams In: Texas A&M, Hawaii, West Virginia, Iona
First Four Out: Michigan, Oklahoma, Creighton, Bradley
Others: Seton Hall, Houston, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, Colorado, Rutgers, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Colorado State, George Mason, Wichita State
Some Notes:
1. As of today, Oklahoma is out. Sorry Sooners, but you have NO top 50 RPI wins and a sub-100 loss. As a matter of fact, you only have one win against the top 100 (Samford)!
2. Nine Big East teams made it in today, and Seton Hall was close. This does not include Georgetown, Rutgers, or Notre Dame who are all very much alive. It is going to get wild.
3. With Florida's dominance, Tennessee's legitimacy, and the resurgence of both Georgia and Vandy, Kentucky has to be a little worried. The Wildcats looked positively horrid at Kansas on Saturday.
4. In addition to Big East, the Missouri Valley and Colonial conference races are going to be a LOT of fun to watch. The MVC has six NCAA contenders (Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Southern Illinois, Bradley, Creighton, and Wichita State). At this point, it is hard to imagine the MVC getting any less than three teams in this season, with a good shot at four and an outside shot at five. The CAA currently have two legitimate at-large contenders in Old Dominion and George Mason, and good teams (though probably not at-large contenders) in Drexel, VCU, Hofstra, and UNC-Wilmington. It could be a multi-bid year for the CAA.
III. Tonight's GOI
--Cincinnati at UConn. The Huskies need a marquee win and an RPI boost (currently 42). This would provide both.
--Texas at Iowa State. For an early statement on who is the favorite in the Big 12.
--Gonzaga at Santa Clara. This game and at St. Mary's-CA are probably the only two conference games that the Zags even have a chance of losing.
A Bracket Buster update is coming tomorrow.
Seventeen minutes and six seconds. Many things can be accomplished in such a span. One could drive approximately 20 interstate miles. One could watch nearly all of a Seinfeld episode (sans commercials). Many track athletes can run a 5K (3.1 miles) in less time. That's how long Middle Tennessee went without a field goal in the second half. I cannot remember a stretch as long in ANY game I've ever watched. Brick after brick, airball after airball, the dry spell seemingly would never end. Give much credit to the active and pesky Topper defense, but a good part of this was just a statistical anomaly.
It was a 1-point contest near the end of the first half, as MTSU trailed 32-31. But, an 8-0 run to end the half and the Drought That Would Not End in the second half fueled an eternal 48-17 Topper run over the last 21:06 of the game. All this with sharpshooting guard Anthony Winchester going 0-4 from 3-land for the Tops. He still managed 14 points. Super-consistent G Courtney Lee paced the tops with 19 points. The Diddle crowd of 6k was also treated to two monster dunks by The Great Red Pretodactyl. One was a ridiculous left-handed follow-up dunk; the other was a full court breakaway that concluded with Wilborn leaving the planet just 6 inches inside the free throw line and ramming it home. Despite MTSU's struggles, this was clearly WKU's best outing of the season. Read more about the game and stats here.
II. Bracket Update!
Today's bracket is up and there are quite a few changes from last week.
Multi-bid Conference Breakdown
A couple of weird things are happening right now due the lack of conference games played. For example, Fresno State is in because they have no conference losses and have the lowest RPI among unblemished WAC teams. Therefore they win the projected automatic bid. Same with Manhattan (instead of Iona) in the MAAC. These things sort themselves out over the course of the season.
Big East (9): Villanova, UConn, Pitt, Cincinnati, DePaul, Syracuse, Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette
Big Ten (6): Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa
ACC (6): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College
SEC (5): Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Arizona, Washington, Washington State
MVC (3): Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Southern Illinois
Big 12 (3): Texas, Iowa State, Texas A&M
WAC (3): Nevada, Hawaii, Fresno State
CUSA (2): Memphis, UAB
A-10 (2): George Washington, Xavier
MAAC (2): Iona, Manhattan
Last Four Teams In: Texas A&M, Hawaii, West Virginia, Iona
First Four Out: Michigan, Oklahoma, Creighton, Bradley
Others: Seton Hall, Houston, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, Colorado, Rutgers, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Colorado State, George Mason, Wichita State
Some Notes:
1. As of today, Oklahoma is out. Sorry Sooners, but you have NO top 50 RPI wins and a sub-100 loss. As a matter of fact, you only have one win against the top 100 (Samford)!
2. Nine Big East teams made it in today, and Seton Hall was close. This does not include Georgetown, Rutgers, or Notre Dame who are all very much alive. It is going to get wild.
3. With Florida's dominance, Tennessee's legitimacy, and the resurgence of both Georgia and Vandy, Kentucky has to be a little worried. The Wildcats looked positively horrid at Kansas on Saturday.
4. In addition to Big East, the Missouri Valley and Colonial conference races are going to be a LOT of fun to watch. The MVC has six NCAA contenders (Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Southern Illinois, Bradley, Creighton, and Wichita State). At this point, it is hard to imagine the MVC getting any less than three teams in this season, with a good shot at four and an outside shot at five. The CAA currently have two legitimate at-large contenders in Old Dominion and George Mason, and good teams (though probably not at-large contenders) in Drexel, VCU, Hofstra, and UNC-Wilmington. It could be a multi-bid year for the CAA.
III. Tonight's GOI
--Cincinnati at UConn. The Huskies need a marquee win and an RPI boost (currently 42). This would provide both.
--Texas at Iowa State. For an early statement on who is the favorite in the Big 12.
--Gonzaga at Santa Clara. This game and at St. Mary's-CA are probably the only two conference games that the Zags even have a chance of losing.
A Bracket Buster update is coming tomorrow.
Friday, January 06, 2006
Toppers Win; Weekend Forecast
I. Thirteen Good Minutes Are Enough; Tops Nip Ark State, 72-70
For the first 27 minutes last night, WKU played in a funk that would have made George Clinton proud. They were thoroughly outhustled and outmuscled on the Indians' home court, allowing Arkansas State to build a 52-38 lead with under 14 minutes to play. But, something happened at that point. Have a look at these pre/post-13 minute mark of the 2nd half stats:
Turnovers: 12/1
Points: 39 in 27 mins/33 in 13 mins
Free Throws: 2-4/11-17
Courtney Lee: 6 pts/16 pts
If the Tops can flip that switch at the beginning of the game, it would make everyone's lives a little easier (except for opponents). What caused this David Banner to Hulk-like tranformation? After a turnover and trailing by 14 points, Hilltopper coach Darrin Horn inserted reserve PG Joemal Campbell. WKU scored on five straight possessions consisting mostly of Courtney Lee going bananas with numerous powerful forays to the hoop. When most-of-the-time PG Ty Rogers came back at about the 11 min mark, he was a new man. The Tops only made one turnover the rest of the way and Rogers had many clutch plays down the stretch. Benson Callier was huge down the stretch as well, finishing the game with 17 points and 6 rebounds.
Big road win for the Toppers. They now nestle in for a three game home stand beginning on Saturday against arch rival Middle Tennessee.
II. Last Night's GOI
--Villanova 76, at Louisville 67. Louisville is not quite ready for the Big East cream, but they are going to be very tough on anyone coming into Freedom Hall. This loss makes Louisville's road trip to Providence pretty important. Randy Foye is amazing; really, a joy to watch.
--at Illinois 60, Michigan State 50. Dee Brown had 34 of the Illini's 60 points. This is not last year's Illinois, but they are still unblemished and Dee Brown is nigh unstoppable. What will the Illini do against a great team if Brown has a bad game? Is that combination even possible?
----UCLA 85, at Arizona 79. When UCLA gets 100% healthy, they will be scary good. Arizona puts tremendous pressure on opposing guards (Chris Rodgers is especially fiesty), but they need more from their bigs (Kirk Walters) to be a legitimate top 15 team.
--at George Mason 73, VCU 60. Gives the Pats a precious win over a fellow CAA contender.
--at Hawaii 73, Nevada 69 (OT). As I said yesterday, it's tough to win in the middle of the Pacific ocean. Hawaii might be a second NCAA bid out of the WAC if they can manage to win some road games.
--Northern Iowa 75, at Wichita State 61. It seems to me that Missouri State and Northern Iowa are separating themselves a bit. Oh wait, look who is in first place at 3-0 in the MVC: SIU. Since starting 2-3 with losses to Monmouth, St. Louis, and D-II Alaska-Anchorage, the Salukis have ripped off nine in a row, including last night's road win over fading Indiana State. Like my grandma used to say: never count out an Egyptian dog.
--at Wisconsin 66, Iowa 52. I take great pride in the fact that I was the one of the few (only) people who had the Badgers in the preseason top 25. Well, I do not do polls, so really they were #23 on my NCAA preseason S-Curve. Anyway, Bo Ryan has a system that works. Period.
III. Weekend GOI
Tonight
--Manhattan at Iona. There seems to be only two teams capable of challenging Iona in the Metro-Atlantic: Manhattan and St. Peter's.
Saturday
--Southern Cal at Arizona. A Trojan win here gets them into the NCAA conversation.
--Notre Dame at DePaul. Two of that gaggle of mid-pack Big East teams.
--Florida at Georgia. Let's see what the Dawgs are made of.
--Ohio State at Indiana. This will be the Buckeyes stiffest test to date. Can they really challenge for the Big Ten crown?
--Cincinnati at Marquette. If the Bearcats win here, it's time to put them in the Big East title conversation.
--Northern Iowa at Missouri State. I believe these are the two best teams in the MVC.
--NC State at North Carolina. In-state rivalry game alert! And boy, it should be a good one.
--Seton Hall at Rutgers. Both off to decent starts and looking to get into the NCAA convo.
--Colorado at Texas. Reality check time for the 10-1 Buffs. Let's see if they have the chops.
--Drexel at VCU. Another important game in the highly competitive Colonial.
--Auburn at Vanderbilt. Winner gets a leg up on a Bubble bid from the SEC.
--Washington State at Washington. In-state rivarly game alert! Plus, it has real NCAA implications for both.
--Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky. Two highest-rated RPI teams in the Belt and a pretty fierce regional rivalry.
--Butler at UW-Milwaukee. Probably the two best teams in the Horizon.
Sunday
--St. Peter's at Manhattan. Two of the three MAAC contenders (Iona is the other).
--Temple at Saint Joseph's. Both desperately need a good win.
--Bradley at SIU. Important tilt for both team's tourney hopes. Loser is probably on the outside at this point.
--Duke at Wake Forest. The Dukies were up for the task at Indiana. This is only their second major road test.
--West Virginia at Villanova. WVU really needs a marquee win. Not likely here, though.
--Michigan State at Wisconsin. Simply a great college hoops matchup. MSU certainly does not want to start 0-2 in the Big Ten, but the Kohl Center is anything but kind to visiting teams (44-1 in their last 45).
Bracket projection coming on Monday. Have a great weekend.
For the first 27 minutes last night, WKU played in a funk that would have made George Clinton proud. They were thoroughly outhustled and outmuscled on the Indians' home court, allowing Arkansas State to build a 52-38 lead with under 14 minutes to play. But, something happened at that point. Have a look at these pre/post-13 minute mark of the 2nd half stats:
Turnovers: 12/1
Points: 39 in 27 mins/33 in 13 mins
Free Throws: 2-4/11-17
Courtney Lee: 6 pts/16 pts
If the Tops can flip that switch at the beginning of the game, it would make everyone's lives a little easier (except for opponents). What caused this David Banner to Hulk-like tranformation? After a turnover and trailing by 14 points, Hilltopper coach Darrin Horn inserted reserve PG Joemal Campbell. WKU scored on five straight possessions consisting mostly of Courtney Lee going bananas with numerous powerful forays to the hoop. When most-of-the-time PG Ty Rogers came back at about the 11 min mark, he was a new man. The Tops only made one turnover the rest of the way and Rogers had many clutch plays down the stretch. Benson Callier was huge down the stretch as well, finishing the game with 17 points and 6 rebounds.
Big road win for the Toppers. They now nestle in for a three game home stand beginning on Saturday against arch rival Middle Tennessee.
II. Last Night's GOI
--Villanova 76, at Louisville 67. Louisville is not quite ready for the Big East cream, but they are going to be very tough on anyone coming into Freedom Hall. This loss makes Louisville's road trip to Providence pretty important. Randy Foye is amazing; really, a joy to watch.
--at Illinois 60, Michigan State 50. Dee Brown had 34 of the Illini's 60 points. This is not last year's Illinois, but they are still unblemished and Dee Brown is nigh unstoppable. What will the Illini do against a great team if Brown has a bad game? Is that combination even possible?
----UCLA 85, at Arizona 79. When UCLA gets 100% healthy, they will be scary good. Arizona puts tremendous pressure on opposing guards (Chris Rodgers is especially fiesty), but they need more from their bigs (Kirk Walters) to be a legitimate top 15 team.
--at George Mason 73, VCU 60. Gives the Pats a precious win over a fellow CAA contender.
--at Hawaii 73, Nevada 69 (OT). As I said yesterday, it's tough to win in the middle of the Pacific ocean. Hawaii might be a second NCAA bid out of the WAC if they can manage to win some road games.
--Northern Iowa 75, at Wichita State 61. It seems to me that Missouri State and Northern Iowa are separating themselves a bit. Oh wait, look who is in first place at 3-0 in the MVC: SIU. Since starting 2-3 with losses to Monmouth, St. Louis, and D-II Alaska-Anchorage, the Salukis have ripped off nine in a row, including last night's road win over fading Indiana State. Like my grandma used to say: never count out an Egyptian dog.
--at Wisconsin 66, Iowa 52. I take great pride in the fact that I was the one of the few (only) people who had the Badgers in the preseason top 25. Well, I do not do polls, so really they were #23 on my NCAA preseason S-Curve. Anyway, Bo Ryan has a system that works. Period.
III. Weekend GOI
Tonight
--Manhattan at Iona. There seems to be only two teams capable of challenging Iona in the Metro-Atlantic: Manhattan and St. Peter's.
Saturday
--Southern Cal at Arizona. A Trojan win here gets them into the NCAA conversation.
--Notre Dame at DePaul. Two of that gaggle of mid-pack Big East teams.
--Florida at Georgia. Let's see what the Dawgs are made of.
--Ohio State at Indiana. This will be the Buckeyes stiffest test to date. Can they really challenge for the Big Ten crown?
--Cincinnati at Marquette. If the Bearcats win here, it's time to put them in the Big East title conversation.
--Northern Iowa at Missouri State. I believe these are the two best teams in the MVC.
--NC State at North Carolina. In-state rivalry game alert! And boy, it should be a good one.
--Seton Hall at Rutgers. Both off to decent starts and looking to get into the NCAA convo.
--Colorado at Texas. Reality check time for the 10-1 Buffs. Let's see if they have the chops.
--Drexel at VCU. Another important game in the highly competitive Colonial.
--Auburn at Vanderbilt. Winner gets a leg up on a Bubble bid from the SEC.
--Washington State at Washington. In-state rivarly game alert! Plus, it has real NCAA implications for both.
--Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky. Two highest-rated RPI teams in the Belt and a pretty fierce regional rivalry.
--Butler at UW-Milwaukee. Probably the two best teams in the Horizon.
Sunday
--St. Peter's at Manhattan. Two of the three MAAC contenders (Iona is the other).
--Temple at Saint Joseph's. Both desperately need a good win.
--Bradley at SIU. Important tilt for both team's tourney hopes. Loser is probably on the outside at this point.
--Duke at Wake Forest. The Dukies were up for the task at Indiana. This is only their second major road test.
--West Virginia at Villanova. WVU really needs a marquee win. Not likely here, though.
--Michigan State at Wisconsin. Simply a great college hoops matchup. MSU certainly does not want to start 0-2 in the Big Ten, but the Kohl Center is anything but kind to visiting teams (44-1 in their last 45).
Bracket projection coming on Monday. Have a great weekend.
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Big Night Ahead
1. Sun Belt conference play opens tonight with this slate of games:
Ark-Little Rock @ Florida International
UL-Lafayette @ North Texas
Western Kentucky @ Arkansas State
New Orleans @ Denver
2. Last night's GOI
--at Cincinnati 82, DePaul 60. Bearcats continue to roll. DePaul continues to confuse.
--at Clemson 61, Florida State 55. Clemson bounces back from loss to Elon. Yes, that Elon.
--at Pittsburgh 100, Notre Dame 97 (2 OT). Would have been a golden win for ND, but still a sign of good things. Pitt is now 12-0.
--Xavier 62, at Saint Joseph's 58. Huge road win for the Muskies. This gets Xavier into the NCAA picture. Their only losses are to Illinois by 3 and Creighton by 2.
--George Washington 72, at Temple 60. Colonials send a message about who is the team to beat in the A-10.
--at Utah 64, New Mexico 49. Classic Mt West match up goes to the Utes.
3. Tonight's GOI (all times CT)
--Villanova at Louisville (ESPN2 at 6 pm). FINALLY, we get to see if the Cards are any good.
--Michigan State at Illinois (ESPN2 at 8 pm). These two play their first (tonight) and last (March 4) Big Ten games against each other. Nice.
--UCLA at Arizona (Fox Sports Net at 9:30 pm). Two of the big three Pac-10 contenders. UCLA is coming off a loss to Cal. Zona has won seven straight.
--VCU at George Mason. BIG match up of Colonial contenders.
--Nevada at Hawaii. Tough to win in the middle of the Pacific ocean. Ask Michigan State.
--Northern Iowa at Wichita State. Every game is big amongst the MVC contenders.
--Iowa at Wisconsin. This Big 10 tilt will be overshadowed by MSU/Illinois, but still an important game.
Ark-Little Rock @ Florida International
UL-Lafayette @ North Texas
Western Kentucky @ Arkansas State
New Orleans @ Denver
2. Last night's GOI
--at Cincinnati 82, DePaul 60. Bearcats continue to roll. DePaul continues to confuse.
--at Clemson 61, Florida State 55. Clemson bounces back from loss to Elon. Yes, that Elon.
--at Pittsburgh 100, Notre Dame 97 (2 OT). Would have been a golden win for ND, but still a sign of good things. Pitt is now 12-0.
--Xavier 62, at Saint Joseph's 58. Huge road win for the Muskies. This gets Xavier into the NCAA picture. Their only losses are to Illinois by 3 and Creighton by 2.
--George Washington 72, at Temple 60. Colonials send a message about who is the team to beat in the A-10.
--at Utah 64, New Mexico 49. Classic Mt West match up goes to the Utes.
3. Tonight's GOI (all times CT)
--Villanova at Louisville (ESPN2 at 6 pm). FINALLY, we get to see if the Cards are any good.
--Michigan State at Illinois (ESPN2 at 8 pm). These two play their first (tonight) and last (March 4) Big Ten games against each other. Nice.
--UCLA at Arizona (Fox Sports Net at 9:30 pm). Two of the big three Pac-10 contenders. UCLA is coming off a loss to Cal. Zona has won seven straight.
--VCU at George Mason. BIG match up of Colonial contenders.
--Nevada at Hawaii. Tough to win in the middle of the Pacific ocean. Ask Michigan State.
--Northern Iowa at Wichita State. Every game is big amongst the MVC contenders.
--Iowa at Wisconsin. This Big 10 tilt will be overshadowed by MSU/Illinois, but still an important game.
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
Explaining the Bubble
Wednesdays will be the traditional Bubble Boy Day here at TBB. Even though we are still 9 1/2 weeks from Selection Sunday (March 12), we can still talk about the philosophy of the Bubble and how things look at this point. Monday, I touched on how the Bubble currently looks after I posted the bracket projection, but we can venture a more in-depth analysis here. I will continue to list the "GOI" (Games of Importance) during the week, but at some point closer to Selection Sunday, the GOI will morph into "Bubble Boy Games," which are games that will have an impact on the Bubble.
The quick way to assess the Bubble Boys will be through the Lockbox. All 31 conferences are listed and individual teams are color coded based on their safety in regards to the NCAA tournament hopes (see bottom right of Lockbox page). Obviously, NO teams could lose out and make it in at this point. Only when that level is reached will a team be officially called a LOCK. There are a number of pretty safe bets, though, and this page reflects that.
A few notes:
1. Does Marquette's big win over UConn last night put them into the bracket? I don't know. We shall see on Monday. I'm leaving MU where I had them on Monday at this point.
2. I do know that Indiana State's home loss to IPFW knocks them out. The Sycamores have now lost three in a row. I slid Bradley into the "Bubble In" slot for them until a more thorough evaluation can be made on Monday.
3. Gonzaga and Bucknell are in one-bid conferences, but certainly look to be strong at-large candidates. Therefore, I list them as if they were under at-large consideration. That will be true for any at-large hopeful from a (likely) one-bid conference.
The numbers look like this right now:
--31 Automatic Bids. That will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--16 at-large bids look taken at this point. Consult the Lockbox and view the teams listed in black. It is hard to imagine any of those teams missing, although it is still very early. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--7 other bids look pretty safe. We just need a little more confirmation from Louisville, North Carolina, Iowa, Syracuse, Arkansas, Colorado State, and Northern Iowa.
--11 bids were totally up for grabs. The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red.
So, count on TBB for a bracket projection on Mondays, a Bracket Buster Update on Tuesdays, and a Bubbly Boy Breakdown on Wednesdays. And, please do email with criticism and questions as to why someone is over/underseeded.
Tonight's GOI
--DePaul at Cincinnati. DePaul has the look of a wild and woolly Bubble Boy. Nice wins over Wake, Creighton, UAB, and Cal; blown out by Bradley and Old Dominion (by 44!) and also lost to Northern Illinois. UC has won eight in a row and has been crushing people.
--Florida State at Clemson. Who is the more paper-y of these tigers?
--Notre Dame at Pittsburgh. Good early season test for both. Pretty important for bubble-ish ND.
--Xavier at Saint Joseph's. These are the types of games BOTH of these clubs are going to need to hold any hopes for at-large consideration.
--George Washington at Temple. Let's see if the Owls can be legitimately be called an A-10 contender.
--New Mexico at Utah. Normally, this would be for a leg up in the Mt West regular season championship. Not so this year, as both Colorado State and Air Force have outperformed the traditional powers.
The quick way to assess the Bubble Boys will be through the Lockbox. All 31 conferences are listed and individual teams are color coded based on their safety in regards to the NCAA tournament hopes (see bottom right of Lockbox page). Obviously, NO teams could lose out and make it in at this point. Only when that level is reached will a team be officially called a LOCK. There are a number of pretty safe bets, though, and this page reflects that.
A few notes:
1. Does Marquette's big win over UConn last night put them into the bracket? I don't know. We shall see on Monday. I'm leaving MU where I had them on Monday at this point.
2. I do know that Indiana State's home loss to IPFW knocks them out. The Sycamores have now lost three in a row. I slid Bradley into the "Bubble In" slot for them until a more thorough evaluation can be made on Monday.
3. Gonzaga and Bucknell are in one-bid conferences, but certainly look to be strong at-large candidates. Therefore, I list them as if they were under at-large consideration. That will be true for any at-large hopeful from a (likely) one-bid conference.
The numbers look like this right now:
--31 Automatic Bids. That will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--16 at-large bids look taken at this point. Consult the Lockbox and view the teams listed in black. It is hard to imagine any of those teams missing, although it is still very early. This could change, but most if not all of these teams are not going anywhere.
--7 other bids look pretty safe. We just need a little more confirmation from Louisville, North Carolina, Iowa, Syracuse, Arkansas, Colorado State, and Northern Iowa.
--11 bids were totally up for grabs. The Bubble Boys who made it in are in green and those left out are in red.
So, count on TBB for a bracket projection on Mondays, a Bracket Buster Update on Tuesdays, and a Bubbly Boy Breakdown on Wednesdays. And, please do email with criticism and questions as to why someone is over/underseeded.
Tonight's GOI
--DePaul at Cincinnati. DePaul has the look of a wild and woolly Bubble Boy. Nice wins over Wake, Creighton, UAB, and Cal; blown out by Bradley and Old Dominion (by 44!) and also lost to Northern Illinois. UC has won eight in a row and has been crushing people.
--Florida State at Clemson. Who is the more paper-y of these tigers?
--Notre Dame at Pittsburgh. Good early season test for both. Pretty important for bubble-ish ND.
--Xavier at Saint Joseph's. These are the types of games BOTH of these clubs are going to need to hold any hopes for at-large consideration.
--George Washington at Temple. Let's see if the Owls can be legitimately be called an A-10 contender.
--New Mexico at Utah. Normally, this would be for a leg up in the Mt West regular season championship. Not so this year, as both Colorado State and Air Force have outperformed the traditional powers.
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
WKU Tops UVA; Bracket Buster Update
WKU 78, Virginia 68
Well, I typed up a nice write-up on the WKU/Virginia game, but I am having trouble with the disk on which it is saved. I'll have to see if I can fix that and I will put up the game log tomorrow. Read about the Tops big victory over Virginia right here. Not "big" because Virginia is a great team (they are not), but "big" becuase WKU put together what might be its most consistent 40 minute game to date in the 2005-06 campaign. "Big" because Winchester-gate seems to have been resolved. "Big" because the Tops actually had a good performance at home. And "big" because it gives the Tops some momentum heading into Sun Belt conference play.
Bracket Buster Update
The ESPN Bracket Buster has swelled to an incredible 100 teams this season, encompassing nearly a full third of all D-I college hoops teams. Needless to say, many of those games are going to have no impact on the bracket. Furthermore, the power is inordinately tilted toward the home side. It would be tough to create eleven highly competitive TV match ups if the pairings were done today, but it's still nearly a month before the match ups are announced on Jan 29. Hopefully, some of the assigned road teams can step it up in conference play.
I have created a Bracket Buster Page that will track all 100 teams from now until Jan 29. It will be updated weekly until the end of month, and I will attempt to do it daily during the week leading up to the 29th. It includes teams' conference affiliation, current records, winning %, and RPI. I know that there is an extra column after the loss column, but it is merely the total number of games played. I tried to hide that column, but it caused problems when viewing the page. I'll work on that for next week.
Teams from the same conference obviously will not be matched up in the Bracket Buster. Also, it is not determined by RPI alone, but a combination of record, schedule strength, RPI, impact on NCAA selection profile, and probably perceived TV marketability will play into the pairings. If teams were matched up today, this is how the 11 TV games might look.
1. Bucknell at Northern Iowa
2. Missouri State at Iona
3. Northern Illinois at Nevada
4. Northwestern State at UW-Milwaukee
5. George Mason at Bradley
6. Indiana State at Old Dominion
7. Buffalo at Utah State
8. Fresno State at Wichita State
9. Samford at Ohio
10. Illinois-Chicago at Creighton
11. Tennessee Tech at Southern Illinois
More coming this week either tomorrow or on Thursday.
Well, I typed up a nice write-up on the WKU/Virginia game, but I am having trouble with the disk on which it is saved. I'll have to see if I can fix that and I will put up the game log tomorrow. Read about the Tops big victory over Virginia right here. Not "big" because Virginia is a great team (they are not), but "big" becuase WKU put together what might be its most consistent 40 minute game to date in the 2005-06 campaign. "Big" because Winchester-gate seems to have been resolved. "Big" because the Tops actually had a good performance at home. And "big" because it gives the Tops some momentum heading into Sun Belt conference play.
Bracket Buster Update
The ESPN Bracket Buster has swelled to an incredible 100 teams this season, encompassing nearly a full third of all D-I college hoops teams. Needless to say, many of those games are going to have no impact on the bracket. Furthermore, the power is inordinately tilted toward the home side. It would be tough to create eleven highly competitive TV match ups if the pairings were done today, but it's still nearly a month before the match ups are announced on Jan 29. Hopefully, some of the assigned road teams can step it up in conference play.
I have created a Bracket Buster Page that will track all 100 teams from now until Jan 29. It will be updated weekly until the end of month, and I will attempt to do it daily during the week leading up to the 29th. It includes teams' conference affiliation, current records, winning %, and RPI. I know that there is an extra column after the loss column, but it is merely the total number of games played. I tried to hide that column, but it caused problems when viewing the page. I'll work on that for next week.
Teams from the same conference obviously will not be matched up in the Bracket Buster. Also, it is not determined by RPI alone, but a combination of record, schedule strength, RPI, impact on NCAA selection profile, and probably perceived TV marketability will play into the pairings. If teams were matched up today, this is how the 11 TV games might look.
1. Bucknell at Northern Iowa
2. Missouri State at Iona
3. Northern Illinois at Nevada
4. Northwestern State at UW-Milwaukee
5. George Mason at Bradley
6. Indiana State at Old Dominion
7. Buffalo at Utah State
8. Fresno State at Wichita State
9. Samford at Ohio
10. Illinois-Chicago at Creighton
11. Tennessee Tech at Southern Illinois
More coming this week either tomorrow or on Thursday.
Monday, January 02, 2006
Bracket Update
Consider this the official non-conference bracket projection. Most of the conferences start league play this week, so this is a look at where teams stand with the bulk of the pre-conference games completed. I should say up front that there is a healthy dose of "BBB" in this one (Bracket Board Bias). There has to be this early. But, I did my best to base it on what teams have accomplished to this point according to the NCAA's official selection criteria. Sometimes, that is very hard to do this early. The BBB will be phased out from week to week and by mid-conference season, it will be totally eradicated.
The last four teams in were Texas A&M, Indiana State, Notre Dame, and California. The first four out were Bradley, Washington State, Alabama, and West Virginia. Other teams under consideration were Temple, Houston, Saint Joseph's, UAB, Houston, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Georgetown, Florida State, Ohio, Rutgers, and Kansas.
Other food for thought while perusing this bracket.
1. It is still WAY too early to make any definitive statements about many teams. However, I think we can make some relatively safe initial observations. For example, right now there seems to be about 16 virtual locks for NCAA tournament. Grouped by conference, they are:
Duke, NC State, UConn, Villanova, Pitt, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio State, Memphis, Washington, Arizona, UCLA, Florida, and Gonzaga.
The next group of 12 teams is a little less certain, but it would be a monumental surprise if any of these teams missed: Boston College, Maryland, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Iowa, George Washington, Kentucky, and Nevada.
That is 28 teams that look to be in great shape representing 10 conferences. There are 31 automatic bids to the NCAA tourney and 34 at-large bids. Of the 28 teams listed here, 10 are projected as auto's from their conference which means that approximately 18 at-large bids are available. Again, it's way too early to construct any meaningful Bubble list, but if a team is not on these "safe" lists, it is fighting for one of about 18 slots right now. The Bubble may bloat some weeks, but most weeks it is going to get smaller and smaller as we head into February and March.
2. A few teams have to prove themselves against quality competition to be included in either of these safe groups. Louisville's best win is at Miami-FL who is not a good team. Let's wait and see how the Cards do when they host Villanova and go to Providence this week. Also, Kansas, West Virginia, Alabama, LSU, and Texas Tech cannot possibly be considered anything other than talented teams that have an awful lot of work to do in the conference season despite their high preseason expectations and/or their storied histories.
3. Another interesting group is the FIVE Missouri Valley teams who look to be pretty evenly matched. Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Bradley, and Indiana State have been strong in the non-conference. Add in the fact that perennial MVC power Southern Illinois will not go away quietly, and you have the makings of one heckuva conference race. SIX of the ten MVC teams have started 1-1 in conference play. It will be interesting to see which teams, if any, can separate themselves from the pack.
4. Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown in this Bracket
Big East (8): UConn, Villanova, Pitt, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse, DePaul, Notre Dame
Big 10 (7): Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan
Big 12 (6): Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Kansas State, Colorado, Texas A&M
ACC (6): Duke, NC State, Maryland, Boston College, Wake Forest, North Carolina
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Pac 10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona, Cal
MVC (4): Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Indiana State
Mountain West (2): Air Force, Colorado State
5. Tomorrow, a recap of WKU's big game tonight against Virginia. The Tops host the Cavaliers here in Bowling Green and seek to avenge a bitter double-OT loss in Charlottsville last season. Also, we'll take an early look at the Bracket Buster.
The last four teams in were Texas A&M, Indiana State, Notre Dame, and California. The first four out were Bradley, Washington State, Alabama, and West Virginia. Other teams under consideration were Temple, Houston, Saint Joseph's, UAB, Houston, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Georgetown, Florida State, Ohio, Rutgers, and Kansas.
Other food for thought while perusing this bracket.
1. It is still WAY too early to make any definitive statements about many teams. However, I think we can make some relatively safe initial observations. For example, right now there seems to be about 16 virtual locks for NCAA tournament. Grouped by conference, they are:
Duke, NC State, UConn, Villanova, Pitt, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio State, Memphis, Washington, Arizona, UCLA, Florida, and Gonzaga.
The next group of 12 teams is a little less certain, but it would be a monumental surprise if any of these teams missed: Boston College, Maryland, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Iowa, George Washington, Kentucky, and Nevada.
That is 28 teams that look to be in great shape representing 10 conferences. There are 31 automatic bids to the NCAA tourney and 34 at-large bids. Of the 28 teams listed here, 10 are projected as auto's from their conference which means that approximately 18 at-large bids are available. Again, it's way too early to construct any meaningful Bubble list, but if a team is not on these "safe" lists, it is fighting for one of about 18 slots right now. The Bubble may bloat some weeks, but most weeks it is going to get smaller and smaller as we head into February and March.
2. A few teams have to prove themselves against quality competition to be included in either of these safe groups. Louisville's best win is at Miami-FL who is not a good team. Let's wait and see how the Cards do when they host Villanova and go to Providence this week. Also, Kansas, West Virginia, Alabama, LSU, and Texas Tech cannot possibly be considered anything other than talented teams that have an awful lot of work to do in the conference season despite their high preseason expectations and/or their storied histories.
3. Another interesting group is the FIVE Missouri Valley teams who look to be pretty evenly matched. Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Bradley, and Indiana State have been strong in the non-conference. Add in the fact that perennial MVC power Southern Illinois will not go away quietly, and you have the makings of one heckuva conference race. SIX of the ten MVC teams have started 1-1 in conference play. It will be interesting to see which teams, if any, can separate themselves from the pack.
4. Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown in this Bracket
Big East (8): UConn, Villanova, Pitt, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse, DePaul, Notre Dame
Big 10 (7): Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan
Big 12 (6): Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Kansas State, Colorado, Texas A&M
ACC (6): Duke, NC State, Maryland, Boston College, Wake Forest, North Carolina
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Pac 10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona, Cal
MVC (4): Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Indiana State
Mountain West (2): Air Force, Colorado State
5. Tomorrow, a recap of WKU's big game tonight against Virginia. The Tops host the Cavaliers here in Bowling Green and seek to avenge a bitter double-OT loss in Charlottsville last season. Also, we'll take an early look at the Bracket Buster.
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