OSS/Weekend Forecast 2/27-3/1

The One Stop Shop is up and running. I have already seeded teams who have clinched seeds in their conference tournies. There may be more and the seeding will be sorting out at a high rate of speed over the next week.

The OSS gives you all 30 conference tourney brackets in one place. Enjoy.

The Lockbox has also been updated. A few teams have been LOCKed and there are a number that will achieve that status with a win this weekend. I added:

WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Siena at Niagara. Saints have an outside shot at an AL. They cannot afford multiple losses though.
Saturday
--Cleveland State at Butler. Bulldogs win the regular season title and #1 with a win.
--Utah at BYU. Utah is approaching bulletproof. A BYU win would put them in excellent shape.
--UCLA at Cal. Seeding and Pac-10 implications.
--Notre Dame at UConn. Irish would have to be taken very seriously with a win here.
--Illinois State at Creighton. Jays are an outsider for an AL, but they can only afford a loss in the conference title game to stay alive.
--Temple at Dayton. Both must win to stay alive for A10 crown. And, Dayton needs to win to stay off the Bubble. Temple is a long shot for an AL, but a win here could help their cause.
--Clemson at Florida State. Seeding battle.
--Michigan State at Illinois. Illini must win to keep Big 10 titles hope alive.
--Nebraska at Kansas State. Must win for Cats.
--WKU at Middle Tennessee. A Topper win wins the reg season title and the 1 seed, but it's a road game against a bitter rival who would love to spoil it. And I will be there.
--LSU at Kentucky. Cats need a big win and this would qualify.
--Utah State at Nevada. Tough roadie that the Aggies cannot afford to lose in case they need the AL bid.
--Texas at Oklahoma State. Cowboys need it more.
--North Dakota State at Oral Roberts. An NDSU win takes the Summit league. An ORU win creates a tie at the top that will go deep into the tie-breaker rules (season split and both teams split with #3 Oakland).
--Ohio State at Purdue. Mostly seeding, although tOSU needs another win or two to feel totally safe.
--Southern Cal at Stanford. Trojans are nearing must-win territory.
--Morehead State at UT-Martin. A UT-M win takes all the OVC marbles. A MSU win makes for a train wreck at the top of the league.
--Georgetown at Villanova. Hoyas are in desperation mode; Nova is angling for a high seed.
--South Carolina at Vanderbilt. Gamecocks have their nose (beak) in front in the East and need to stay there if they want an AL bid.
--Duke at Virginia Tech. Hokies are playing for their lives.
--Arizona at Washington. Huskies lead the Pac-10 by a game while Zona still needs a win or two to feel solid.
--Arizona State at Washington State. Tough game for the Devils against the emerging Cougars.
Sunday
--Rhode Island at Duquesne. Rams have poked their heads into the AL picture.
--Siena at Canisius. See Siena at Niagara above.
--Tennessee at Florida. Both need a strong finish to feel solid and this game to stay in the SEC East race.
--Missouri at Kansas. The winner has the inside track on a 2 seed.
--Marquette at Louisville. Cards are tied with UConn in the loss column. Eagles try to press on without James.
--Maryland at NC State. Terps cannot afford to lose this one.
--Providence at Rutgers. Friars have to back up that big win over Pitt with a roadie.
--Cincinnati at Syracuse. A win here would put the Bearcats in good shape.
--Michigan at Wisconsin. Both need it.

SCKySSiP Mock Committee IV

This year's version of the SCKySSiP (South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project) will consist of eight members. We do the process mostly over email during the week leading up to Selection Sunday, then meet at Chez Bracketboard for an all-day voting and bracketing bonanza on Saturday, Mar 14. This is a "mock committee"and we are replicating the actual selection process as closely as possible. Again, this is a replication of the process, not a prediction of what the committee will do. There is a big difference. My personal bracket on this site works in analysis of teams and trying to "predict" (although I hate that word) what the committee will do. That's what most bracketologists do. The SCKySSiP actually ACTS OUT the process.

I will update frequently on our results in the next couple of weeks.

Last Night's GOI
--Virginia Tech 80, at Clemson 77. Hokies land a big fish at a great time.
--Northwestern 75, at Indiana 53. Cats get one they had to have and ended a 35-game losing streak in Bloomington.

--UConn 93, at Marquette 82. The real pain for Marquette is that Dominic James is gone for the year.
--Duke 78, at Maryland 67. Terps stay on the Bubble.
-- at Missouri 94, Kansas State 74. Not the kind of showing the Bubbly Cats needed.
--at Rhode Island 93, Dayton 91. Rams are now 10-1 in their last 11 and have to be considered in the AL convo at this stage.

--at South Carolina 77, Kentucky 59. Gamecocks take sole possession of SEC East and strengthen their Bubble position. UK remains right on the fence.

--at Utah 70, UNLV 60. UNLV is on the fence right now. Utah is looking very strong down the stretch having won 7 straight.

Tonight's GOI

--Southern Cal at Califoronia. Trojans need to make hay down the stretch.
--West Virgnia at Cincinnati. Bearcats are 0-7 vs RPI top 25.
--Minnesota at Illinois. Gophers would be in great shape with a win here.
--Purdue at Michigan. Blue needs to cash in at crunch time.
--Morehead State at Murray State. Racers must win if they want to stay alive for OVC title.
--Memphis at UAB. If any game is going to put a mark in Memphis' CUSA loss column, it's probably this one.
--Miami-FL at Virginia. Not sure Canes could survive a loss here.
--Arizona State at Washington. Massive impact on a variety of levels.

Lockbox Update

Lockbox has been updated. I added these teams as LOCKS:

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette

Lockbox updates will happen much more frequently from here on in as teams sort themselves out down the stretch.

The Bubble by the Numbers

--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.

--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.

--27 teams are LOCKS or listed in black. The black teams could miss, but at this stage it would be extremely surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.

--I have 7 other teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but still have a little work to do. Of these 34 black and blue teams, 11 are conference leaders. That means 23 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.

--Hence, the Bubble stands at 11 slots right now. That's the same last week. This will shrink over the coming days, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

Last Night's GOI

--at Boston College 72, Florida State 67. Eagles are in nice shape now. They clinched .500 in the ACC and have two winnable games left.

--at LSU 81, Florida 75. Gators would be wise to win 2/3 here at the end.

--Texas A&M 57, at Nebraska 55. Aggies committed absolute theft at Nebraska. They trailed by 18 on two different occasions in the 2nd half, but a furious late rally capped by a 3-pt buzzer beater killed the Huskers and keeps the Aggies on the good side of the Bubble.

--at Ohio State 73, Penn State 59. Buckeyes are in good position. Penn State remains right smack on the Bubble.

--at Providence 81, Pitt 73. Teams high in popularity polls falter on command. Friars have new life.

--BYU 69, at San Diego State 59. 2nd half demolition by the Cougars.

--Syracuse 87, at St. John's 58. Orange calm the Storm--both the Johnnies and their own.

Tonight's GOI

--Virginia Tech at Clemson. Hokies need to make some hay late.

--Northwestern at Indiana. Cats probably need to win out or make a deep tourney run at this stage.

--UConn at Marquette. 2/3 of the 2-loss Big East teams.

--Duke at Maryland. Terps made a huge jump by beating UNC and they owe Duke for an absolute embarrassment in Cameron earlier in the season.

--Kansas State at Missouri. K-State is very much alive, but they need some beefy wins.

--Dayton at Rhode Island. URI has played well as of late. Flyers will need a good game to get a win in this roadie.

--Kentucky at South Carolina. HUGE game with massive Bubble and SEC East title implications.

--UNLV at Utah. UNLV needs it a lot more.

And Down the Stretch They Come 2

It is less than 3 weeks until Selection Sunday and there are less than 2 weeks remaining in the regular season. It's time to look at what races are going to the wire and which ones have a Secretariat-like leader (or even over).

In the Winner's Circle
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Radford
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State (NCAT can still tie, but Morgan State won the only regular season meeting)
WCC: Gonzaga

Secretariats
CUSA: Memphis. +3 with two to play.
Ivy: Cornell is up two with four to play.
Patriot: American is +2 with two left.
SEC: LSU is +3 with four left although the East is still a mess.
SoCon: Davidson. Up two with three left.
WAC: Utah State is +3 with three to play.

Front Runners
ACC: UNC is a game in front, but three teams sit one game back.
Am East: Binghamton and Vermont are tied with one to play. The Bearcats swept the Catamounts and will get the one seed if it ends in a tie.
A-Sun: Jacksonville leads by one with two to play, but their last game is at #2 Belmont.
Big 12: Kansas now leads by one game, but OK and Mizzou are just one back.
Big Ten: Michigan State is one up but has games left with Purdue and Illinois.
Big West: Long Beach and CS-Northridge are two games clear of the field in the loss column.
Colonial: VCU leads by one with two to play.
Horizon: Butler leads by one with two home games left.
MAC: Buffalo is one up one on a host of teams.
Mountain West: Utah has surged ahead to take a two game lead with four left.
Northeast: Robert Morris. Two clear with two to play, but their final game is with #2 Mt. St. Mary's. A road loss at St. Francis will set up a season-ending showdown.
Summit: North Dakota State is up one with two to play, but one of those is at #2 ORU.
Sun Belt: WKU and UALR are tied with the Toppers holding the tie-breaker with two games left. Troy is one back.
SWAC: Alabama State leads Jackson State by one game with four left.

Big, Muddy Field
A10: Three to play, three way tie at the top (X, Dayton, Temple) with URI one back.
Big East: UConn, Louisville, Marquette and Pitt are tied at the top.
Missouri Valley: UNI and Creighton are tied with Illinois State one back.
Ohio Valley: UT-Martin and Morehead State lead by one with Murray State and Austin Peay just one back.
Pac-10. Washington and Arizona State are tied with UCLA and Cal one back.
Southland: Five teams are tied or within a game of the lead.

Last Night's GOI
--Louisville 76, at Georgetown 58. Hoyas are going to need a miracle finish now.
--Kansas 87, at Oklahoma 78. Helps KU more than it hurts OK since Blake Griffin sat out.
Tonight's GOI
--Florida State at Boston College. Eagles are Bubble-IN right now and this would put them in nice shape. FSU is fighting for a top 4 seed.
--Florida at LSU. Gators need it more.
--Texas A&M at Nebraska. Aggies must have it.
--Penn State at Ohio State. Buckeyes need to hold serve to keep stress level low. Penn State is right on the fence.
--Pitt at Providence. It's time for the Friars to get busy if they are going dancing.
--BYU at San Diego State. Both need it, but the Aztecs need it more.
--Syracuse at St. John's. Orange need to stem the tide lest they slide onto the Bubble.

Bracket Update 2/23

New bracket is up.

Today, I took teams like UNLV, Maryland, Kentucky, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Maryland over a group that included South Carolina, Southern Cal, San Diego State, Michigan, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, St. Mary's and few others.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College
Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Pac-10 (5): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona
SEC (4): LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, UNLV
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton

Tonight's GOI

--Louisville at Georgetown. Hoyas are in total desperation mode.
--Kansas at Oklahoma. If KU is going to land a 2-seed, they probably need this one due to their lack of top 25 RPI wins.

Weekend Forecast 2/20-22

Tonight's GOI

--at Michigan 74, Minnesota 62. OK, maybe the Gophers are not quite Bubble, but they are getting close. Michigan backs up a tough win at Northwestern with this goodie.
--WKU 78, at UALR 69. Toppers go into a tough road venue and take control of the Sun Belt race having swept UALR and holding a one game lead on Troy.
--Washington at UCLA. UCLA can pull back into a tie for first with defense of their home court.

WEEKEND FORECAST

It's BracketBusters weekend. Click here for the entire schedule.

Saturday

--Louisville at Cincinnati. Bearcats are on the Bubble but a home win here would surely put them on the good side for the time being.
--Marquette at Georgetown. Hoyas have this game and Louisville at home in the next few days and those two will likely tell us a lot about their fate.
--Kansas State at Iowa State. KSU has to avoid any sort of loss, especially one like this.
--Tennessee at Kentucky. Who thought these two would be antsy about their status at this late hour?
--North Carolina at Maryland. Terps need to land a haymaker.
--Boston College at Miami-FL. There are few games with more Bubble ramifications than this one.
--San Diego State at New Mexico. Aztecs are right there but cannot afford any slips.
--Illinois at Ohio State. These two are scratching for a protected seed.
--Baylor at Oklahoma State. Maybe not an elimination game, but it will feel like it.
--Notre Dame at Providence. Ditto.
--Washington at USC. Trojans badly need to hold serve at home after dropping 3 straight roadies.
--Oklahoma at Texas. Horns are perilously close to Bubbledom.
--Texas A&M at Texas Tech. Aggies must have it.
--Memphis at UTEP. Tigers have this one and a game at UAB next.
--BYU at UNLV. Rebels need it more and it's at home so they had better get it.
--Florida State at Virginia Tech. Hokies have lost 4/6 so they need to defend the home court here.
--Radford at VMI. Radford can clinch the Big South title with a win.
Sunday

--Arizona at Arizona State. Both are hot and very much alive for the Pac 10 title.
--Wake Forest at Duke. Both have looked vulnerable lately and the loser is essentially done in the ACC title race.
--Michigan at Iowa. Wolverines need to TCB on the road to consolidate a couple of recent solid wins.
--Wisconsin at Michigan State. A win would move the Badgers off the Bubble.
--Northwestern at Minnesota. Gophers need to defend the home court to stay off the Bubble.
--Villanova at Syracuse. Both competing for a protected seed.

GOI 2/19

More later if time permits.

Tonight's GOI
--LSU 72, at Arkansas 69. Tigers dug a huge hole to start the game, then roared back to win a game they could not afford to lose.
--at Florida State 80, Miami-FL 67. Canes are looking like a strong NIT team. 4-8 in conference is going to be hard to overcome at this stage. Not dead, but need a big finish.
--Penn State 38, at Illinois 33. Lions became the first team to win scoring under 40 points in about 11 years. That roughly 107,000 college basketball games. Really (~325 teams x ~30 games each x 11 years).
--at Louisville 94, Providence 76. Friars shot 75% in the first half and only led by two.
--at Mississippi 81, Tennessee 65. Hard to imagine the Vols being left out, but they are trying.
--at Mississippi State 75, South Carolina 70. Gamecocks make an even bigger mess of the SEC picture.
--Oklahoma State 92, at Texas Tech 82. Cowboys win a must win.
--at Virginia 75, Virginia Tech 61. It's generally not a good policy to lose by double digits to the worst team in your league if you are on the Bubble.
--at West Virginia 79, Notre Dame 68. Irish are in the same boat as Miami-FL.

Tonight's GOI
--Minnesota at Michigan. A loss here pushes the Gophers onto the Bubble but would probably make Michigan Bubble-IN.
--WKU at UALR. 2/3 of the Sun Belt's best with huge league championship and conference tourney seeding ramifications.
--Washington at UCLA. UCLA can pull back into a tie for first with defense of their home court.

First LOCKS

Lockbox is up.

Four teams are LOCKs today. These teams could lose out and still get in:

North Carolina, Oklahoma, UConn, Pitt

Duh. The point here is that TBB doesn't take LOCKS lightly.

Other notes:
--Texas and Minnesota were downgraded from "near lock" or "projected in."
--South Carolina was downgraded to "bubble-IN" though it was mostly circumstantial and not because they lost.
--Xavier was upgraded to "near lock."

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--25 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.
--I have 8 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 33 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 23 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 11 slots right now. That's down one from last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

Last Night's GOI
--at BYU 73, New Mexico 62. Cougars strengthen their profile a bit. Lobos are a real long shot now.
--at Clemson 93, Maryland 64. A terrifying second half run crunched the Turtles. MD has UNC and Duke at home in their next two games.
--at Purdue 72, Michigan State 54. A most impressive win by the Boilers keeps them withing a game of Sparty.
--at Vanderbilt 77, Kentucky 64. UK looks to be a classic Bubble team.

Tonight's GOI
--LSU at Arkansas. Tigers need to keep winning due to their appalling non-conference slate.
--Miami-FL at Florida State. Canes have played pretty well, but have lost a lot of close ones. They cannot afford to fall to 4-8 in ACC play.
--Penn State at Illinois. Lions need to land a couple of big fish coming home to keep hope alive.
--Providence at Louisville. Friars are very much alive, but they have to collect some brass to be a viable AL team.
--Tennessee at Mississippi. Vols last at Auburn last time out on the road.
--South Carolina at Mississippi State. Gamecocks have little margin for error.
--Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. Cowboys cannot afford to lose a game like this.
--Virginia Tech at Virginia. Dangerous in-state rivalry game for Bubblish Hokies.
--Notre Dame at West Virginia. Irish need it badly.

A Bracket-ful Mind

The WKU College Heights Herald did a feature piece on my bracket obsession, complete with staged photo-op and the cool title, "A Bracket-ful Mind."

Also, congratulations to Siena! They clinched the 1-seed in the MAAC Tourney with a triumph at Iona last night. Niagara is two back with two to play and the Saints swept the Purple Eagles this season. So, there could still be a tie in the standings, but Siena holds the tie-breaker. I think this is the first team to clinch a top tourney seed.

Which reminds me. The One Stop Shop 2009 is very close. The OSS has all 30 conference tourney brackets in a handy tabbed file that I will update very frequently during conference tourney season.

Last Night's GOI
--at Texas A&M 81, Texas 66. Aggies keep their hopes alive while the Horns are now dangerously close to Bubbledom.
--Pitt 76, at UConn 68. Road wins over teams considered to be 1-seed caliber are generally a good thing.

Tonight's GOI
--New Mexico at BYU. On opposite sides of the Bubble (Lobos: bad, Cougars: good), so this one is vital to both.
--Maryland at Clemson. The Terps are far from dead. A big win here would put them right back in the mix.
--Michigan State at Purdue. Boilers will either pull within a game or fall three back and pretty much out of the title race.
--Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Cats got on the good side with a couple of wins last week, but Memorial can be a tough venue. Vandy is down this year, though.

Bracket Update 2/16

Bracket is up.

There were some tough decisions to be made at the bottom today and a lot of teams in the mix. I opted for these teams

Kentucky, Florida, UNLV, Southern Cal, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Miami-FL

over this group:

San Diego State, Michigan, Kansas State, Georgetown, St. Mary's, Northwestern, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Temple, Providence, Maryland

It's not easy at the bottom right now. It will sort itself out to some degree in the last couple of weeks.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Miami-FL
Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Pac-10 (6): Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona, Southern Cal
SEC (5): LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky
Big XII (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri
Mountain West (3): Utah, BYU, UNLV
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton

Tonight's GOI
--Pitt at UConn. Titanic game with titanic implications.
--Texas at Texas A&M. Big 12 Bubble Boys.
--East Tenn State at Lipscomb. ETSU is scrapping for a league title (just one back), but Lipscomb has put together three very impressive games in a row.

Weekend Forecast 2/13-15

Last Night's GOI
--at Arizona 83, Southern Cal 76. Don't look now, but Zona has won six straight after a 1-4 startin the Pac-10.
--at Arizona State 74, UCLA 67. There are now six Pac-10 teams within two games of the lead
--Illinois 60, at Northwestern 59. An absolutely crushing defeat as the Illini finished on a 17-2 run to end the game and steal what looked like a sure-fire, big time win for the Cats.
--at Notre Dame 90, Louisville 57. The "Must Be An Error" score of the month if you did not watch the game. ND has a long road back, but this is a start.
--Temple 61, at Saint Joseph's 59. Now there is a three-way tie for first in the loss column in the A10 with the Owls just one back.
--Gonzaga 72, at St. Mary's 70. Gaels are going to have to get Patty Mills back and re-prove themselves or win the WCC Tourney.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Villanova at West Virginia. 'Eers try to slow down Nova's NBA-like scoring and WVU certainly does not want to fall to 5-7 in league play.
Saturday
--UCLA at Arizona. Bruins try to avoid a fruitless AZ swing while Cats go for their 7th straight.
--Kentucky at Arkansas. Cats cannot afford a loss here and need to back up that win over Florida.
--Texas A&M at Baylor. HUGE for both of these Big 12 Bubble Boys.
--Utah State at Boise State. Aggies have three tough roadies left: here, a BracketBusters game at St. Mary's, and at Nevada.
--Binghamton at Boston U. 2/3 of the leaders of the AmEast.
--UW-Green Bay at Cleveland State. Good tussle between two of the better Horizon teams.
--Northeastern at George Mason. Patriots must have it lest they fall three back.
--Kansas at Kansas State. Wildcats have won 6 straight while KU looks to bounce back after a loss at Mizzou.
--Virginia Tech at Maryland. Both need, but the Terps are especially desperate.
--Minnesota at Penn State. Lions are going to need a BIG finish.
--Cincinnati at Pitt. Bearcats are trending the right direction and this would give them a signature win.
--UConn at Seton Hall. The Hall have six in a row and get the Huskies at home in their game without Dyson. Keep an eye on this one.
--Georgetown at Syracuse. Hoyas have to finish well to make it IN.
--WKU at Troy. Toppers can get two clear in the Sun Belt East, or Troy can draw into a tie.
--Florida State at Wake Forest. Two teams trending different directions, but the Deacs are at home in this one.
--Ohio State at Wisconsin. Badgers need to protect the home court to preserve their bid. Did you know tOSU has 5 losses...all to top 30 RPI teams, with four of those to top 15 RPI teams?
Sunday
--Southern Cal at Arizona State. Devils are riding high after beating UCLA while USC has dropped two straight.
--Duke at Boston College. Dukies have lost 3/5 and BC has lost two straight. Someone will feel better after this one.
--North Carolina at Miami-FL. The Canes' have 3 OT losses in their last 5 games. That is just wrong on so many levels.
--Michigan at Northwestern. It will be interesting to see what NW'n can do after collapsing at home vs Illinois last night.

State of the Sun Belt

East
WKU leads by a game due their recent gutty four-wins-in-8-days stretch. They are off tonight and figure to be heading into second place Troy on Saturday with a lot on the line if the Trojans can handle third-place Middle Tennessee tonight at home. If that holds, Troy will have won nine straight with a chance to gain a tie atop the East with a win over WKU. However, if WKU could take down the Trojans in a tough roadie, the Tops would be two clear in the East.

Elsewhere in the East, keep an eye on FIU. They got 7'0" C Russell Hicks back and 6'10 FR C Freddy Asprilla was an absolute beast before a herniated disk sidelined him. If they get healthy, FIU is a threat in the Belt tourney. Middle Tennessee is predictable underperforming this season and FAU has had an awful year in part due to F Carlos Monroe's absence. He was TBB's preseason POY pick. South Alabama simply cannot win close games (4 of their losses are by a total of 9 points), otherwise they would be in the mix. They will be a dangerous mid-seed, too.

West
UALR is running away with it. They are 4 clear with 6 to play, so they are cruise control. All six of the other West teams are within two games of one another, so it will be a dogfight down the stretch for seeding. North Texas is currently in second by one game over three teams. Denver is 10-2 at home, 0-11 on the road. Enough said. After a nice start, Arkansas State is 2-6 in their last 8 Belt games as the offense just cannot score enough points. UL-Lafayette is also 2-6 in their last 8, despite a couple of extremely talented players in Chris Gradnigo and Travis Bureau. UNO is a gritty bunch that always competes, but usually loses. UL-Monroe is showing signs of life, going 3-2 in their last five after a rough start.

UALR is almost guaranteed one of the three byes. WKU and Troy are in good shape, but a strong finish by MTSU could get them one as well. MTSU needs to win tonight at Troy to harbor real hopes of gaining a bye, however, and that is a tall order these days.

Last Night's GOI
--Oklahoma 78, at Baylor 63. Bears are in trouble. Sooners looking more like a 1-seed every day.
--at UConn 63, Syracuse 49. Huskies keep gaining steam, too.
--at Dayton 71, Xavier 58. Big-time bounce-back from the loss at Charlotte. Quietly, Saint Joseph's take sole possession of first in the A10.
--North Carolina 101, at Duke 87. Death, taxes, and UNC winning a big game in Cameron.
--at Memphis 63, Tulsa 37. CUSA race is essentially over.
--LSU 97, at Mississippi State 94 (2OT). LSU takes firm control in the SEC West.
--at NC State 82, Wake Forest 76. Deacs' recent road troubles continue.
--at Purdue 61, Penn State 47. Lions hopes are dwindling.
--at Utah 67, San Diego State 55. Utes earn a season split and take sole possession of first in the MtWest.
--at Wisconsin 69, Iowa 52. Badgers get one they had to have.

Tonight's GOI
--Southern Cal at Arizona. Pac-10 Bubble magic.
--UCLA at Arizona State. Devils will fall three back of Bruins with a loss. Win, and they are still in the title chase.
--Illinois at Northwestern. Cats need to cash in at home to stay in the convo.
--Louisville at Notre Dame. Irish need to start the resurrection right now.
--Temple at Saint Joseph's. Two pretty good teams being overshadowed by Dayton/Xavier.
--Gonzaga at St. Mary's. Gaels are fighting for their lives without Patty Mills.

Lockbox 2/11

Lockbox is up.



The Bubble by the Numbers

--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--23 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss at this stage.
--I have 9 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 32 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 22 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 12 slots right now. That's down one from last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

Last Night's GOI

--Clemson 87, at Boston College 77. Tigers put up a 52-spot in the 2nd frame and BC remains Bubblicious.
--at Kentucky 68, Florida 65. Jodie Meeks made a ridiculous three with 4 seconds left to give UK a win that bordered on "must."
--Michigan State 54, at Michigan 42. Wolverines were held to 15 first half points on their home court.
--at Texas 99, Oklahoma State 74. Horns break out of their mini-funk in a big way.
--at Villanova 102, Marquette 84. Nova is clicking at the right time and this put a serious dent in Marquette's 2-seed hopes.

Tonight's GOI
--Oklahoma at Baylor. It's desperation time for the Bears and this is a BIG opportunity to cash in.
--Syracuse at UConn. Orange are slipping away from a top 5 seed. This would help in that regard.
--Xavier at Dayton. It would be a good idea for the Flyers to hold serve here given their lack of beefy wins and their recent falter at Charlotte.
--North Carolina at Duke. I'll check to see if this one is on TV.
--Tulsa at Memphis. Tigers can get three clear of everyone with a win here.
--LSU at Mississippi State. Two best SEC West teams.
--Wake Forest at NC State. Deacs need to TCB after recent road losses at Miami-FL and GA Tech.
--Penn State at Purdue. Lions hopes hang by a thread.
--San Diego State at Utah. Two of five MWC teams making a case on the Bubble.
--Iowa at Wisconsin. Badgers have to win the ones like this one.

And Down the Stretch They Come

It is less than 5 weeks until Selection Sunday and there are less than 4 weeks remaining in the regular season. It's time to look at what races are going to the wire and which ones have a Secretariat-like leader.

Secretariats

SoCon: Davidson. Eat. Their. Dust. They are 3 games clear with 6 to play.

Big Sky: Weber State. They are 2 clear with 6 to play and finish with 4/6 at home including their toughest challenger (Portland St). Not a lock, but it will VERY hard to catch them.
CUSA: Memphis. Two games clear and apparently much better than the rest of the league.
MEAC: Morgan State. They are two clear of everyone and drilled 2nd-place Bethune-Cookman by 34 at B-C. They are also the only MEAC team with an overall winning record.
Northeast: Robert Morris. Three clear with six to play.
Summit: North Dakota State is two clear with just five to play. Only ORU is withing striking distance.
WAC: Utah State is four clear with five to play. It's been domination to this point.
WCC: Gonzaga is two clear of Portland who they swept with six games left.

Front Runners

ACC: Duke and UNC. These two are a game in front, but four teams sit one game back.

Am East: Should be a nice finish as Boston U (1 game lead), Vermont, and Binghamton have traded punches all season.

A10: Xavier. Definitely the fave, tied with St. Joe's at the moment. Dayton is one back and Temple and Duquesne lurk two back.

A-Sun: East Tenn St, Belmont, and Jacksonville have swapped the top spot a number of times already. It will likely be one of these three.

Big 12: Oklahoma. Kansas is just one back, Mizzou is two back, but it's the Sooners' to lose.

Big South: VMI and Radford. Tied, and they have been the two best in this league all season. They are +3 with 6 to play.
Big Ten: Michigan State is two games clear in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten.
Big West: Long Beach and CS-Northridge are two games clear of the field.
Colonial: Northeastern is a game up on VCU and 2 up on Mason. It's likely to be one of those three.
Horizon: Butler is a game up on UW-Green Bay who is only one game back. It's unlikely than anyone other than UWGB can catch the Dogs.
Ivy: Princeton is a game up on Cornell, but there are lots o' games left in the Ivy.

MAAC: Siena is two up on Niagara but still must visit the Purple Eagles.
MAC: Buffalo is one up on Miami-OH. Those two have been the top MAC teams all season.
Valley: UNI is 2 clear, but just lost at home to 2nd place Creighton.
Pac-10. UCLA has some challengers, but they have nosed ahead and are the clear favorite.
Patriot: American and Holy Cross are tied and two clear of the field with 6 to play.
Southland: SFA, TAMU-CC, and Sam Houston lead the way and seem to be a cut above the rest.
Sun Belt: WKU, UALR (tied with 2 losses each with WKU holding the tie-breaker), and Troy (3 losses), have the inside track for the tournament byes with Middle Tennessee lurking.
SWAC: Alabama State leads Jackson State by one game with seven left. Any other contender will have to come from way off the pace.

Big, Muddy Field

Big East: UConn, Louisville, Marquette are tied with Pitt one back and Nova two back. Not everyone plays the same schedule and this league is tough, so it's still up for grabs.
Mountain West: The best race going right now. Utah, BYU and UNLV have been in the mix all along, but San Diego State and New Mexico are pushing hard now. It's still wide open.
Ohio Valley: No dominant team and six teams within two games of the lead.
SEC: It's a four-team race in the East and two in the West and any of the six could wind up being the top team in this league.

Last Night's GOI

--at Missouri 62, Kansas 60. Tigers knock KU from a first place tie and get a nice resume booster.

--at Pitt 70, West Virginia 59. Pitt stays a game back in Big East, while 'Eers fall to 5-6 in league.
Tonight's GOI
--Clemson at Boston College. Eagles would have to feel good about their position if they hold serve at home here. Tigers need bounce back from that home loss to FSU.
--Florida at Kentucky. UK needs it badly. Gators are no lock, but the Cats cannot afford home losses at this stage.
--Michigan State at Michigan. In-state rivalry alert!
--Oklahoma State at Texas. Bubbly Cowboys take on a Texas need in need of a win themselves.
--Marquette at Villanova. This will tell us a little more about Marquette as a legit 2-seed possibility.

Bracket Update 2/9

Bracket page is up.

There were a slew of teams vying for the final 7 or 8 slots. I took these teams

Dayton, San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Michigan, Arizona, Cincinnati

over these teams:

Kentucky, Miami-FL, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Providence, St. Mary's, Georgetown, UAB, Northwestern, Penn State

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (8): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati
Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona State, Southern Cal, Arizona
Big XII (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Missouri
ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College
SEC (4): Florida, LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina
Big Ten (7): Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan
Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Mountain West (4): Utah, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV

Tonight's GOI
--Kansas at Missouri. KU is peaking and Missouri is still alive for a nice seed if they can win games like this one.
--West Virginia at Pitt. WVU tries to avoid dipping below .500 in league.

Weekend Forecast 2/06

It was a wild week in real work life for me, so I had to skip again yesterday. That's unfortunate, too, because on Wed night, Duke and Wake both went down by 27, which was not exactly expected and I did not get to pontificate on said drubbings. Such is life.

Weekend Forecast
Saturday
--Florida State at Clemson. Tigers try to consolidate their destruction of Duke.
--Michigan at UConn. One of the few remaining meaningful non-conference tilts.
--Miami-FL at Duke. Two teams with VERY different feelings about their last outing.
--Cincinnati at Georgetown. Two Big East Bubble Boys.
--Memphis at Gonzaga. Even bigger non-conference game than Michigan/UConn.
--Northwestern at Iowa. This is the kind of game the Cats must win to find their way IN.
--Oklahoma State at Kansas. Cowboys looked destined for Bubble. A win here would loosen the collar a bit.
--Texas at Nebraska. Horns need to stop the bleeding after two straight losses.
--Minnesota at Ohio State. Gophers killed Illinois then got killed by Michigan State. tOSU is getting it in gear. One of the mos interesting games of the weekend.
--Notre Dame at UCLA. Irish are on life support now. They have lost 6 straight and have UCLA and then Louisville.
--Syracuse at Villanova. Two teams fighting for a protected seed.
--Butler at Wright State. The TBB is a big fan of this year's Raiders, who are 14-3 (losses at Wake, at Butler, at Cleveland State) since an 0-6 start. They have the #11 rated Def Eff in all the land. Tough game for Butler.
Sunday
--Purdue at Illinois. Illinois needs it more, as they will likely fall three back of Sparty with a loss.
--Wisconsin at Penn State. Two Big Televen Bubble Boys.
--Boston College at Wake Forest. Both need for different reasons.

Lockbox 2/4

Lockbox has been updated.

Several teams fell back onto the Bubble this week including Kentucky, California, Baylor, and Georgetown.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--22 teams are listed in black. They could miss, of course, but at this stage it would be very surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown (example: Cal losing 4/5 including a home loss to Oregon State has taken them from "very safe" to "Bubble" over the last couple of weeks).
--I have 9 other teams listed in blue this week, which means if they win the games they "should" win (based on RPI, Pomeroy ratings, performance to this point), they should be fine. I am not predicting anything and I realize that this is a nebulous designation, but I am looking at what they have done to this point. Of these 31 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 21 at-large slots look fairly secure at this stage.
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 13 slots right now. That's up from 10 slots last week. This will shrink (with fluctuation, of course) over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Teams in green are Bubble-IN and those in red are Bubble-OUT.

Last Night's GOI
--at Florida 97, South Carolina 93. Gators take the SEC East lead and Gamecocks have sent notice that they are a real factor there and in the NCAA convo.
--Mississippi State 66, Kentucky 57. Two of the three longest NCAA streaks are in jeopardy this season (Arizona is #1 at 24 and Kentucky is #3 with 17 in row). Back-to-back home losses and three in a row overall have the Cats reeling.
--at Ohio State 80, Purdue 72 (OT). Boilers fall a game behind Sparty while the Bucks get a big-time resume boost.

Tonight's GOI
--Notre Dame at Cincinnati. Must win for both. Should be intense.
--Duke at Clemson. Clash of the Titans game of the night.
--Wake Forest at Miami-FL. Wake needs this to stay in the ACC and 1-seed race, while Miami-FL is fighting for their NCAA lives.
--Minnesota at Michigan State. A Gopher win could create a 5-way tie in the loss column at the top of the Big Televen.
--Texas A&M at Oklahoma. It's a long shot, but this would really shore up the Aggies' profile.
--Villanova at Providence. Friars have been a nice surprise, but they need to beat some of the better Big East teams to find their way in. This would help a lot.
--West Virginia at Syracuse. Both are angling for a top 5 seed.
--Missouri at Texas. See above.
--Southern Cal at UCLA. Don't look now, but the Trojans are just one game out of first and could pull into a tie with UCLA with a win (they would still trail Washington by a game).
--

Bracketbusters Set

Sometimes real life takes over. That's what has happened the last couple of days. Therefore, I did not get to post my final Buster predictions. However, there has been little mystery as to the big games this year. Here is what ESPN has conjured up for TV games (full list of match ups here):

Feb. 20
VCU at Nevada
Illinois State at Niagara
Feb. 21
George Mason at Creighton
Butler at Davidson
Miami (Ohio) at Evansville
Hofstra at Fairfield
Green Bay at Long Beach State
Liberty at Old Dominion
Boise State at Portland State
Utah State at Saint Mary's
Northern Iowa at Siena
Buffalo at Vermont
Northeastern at Wright State

More on this as we get closer to Buster Day.

Bracket Update 2/2

Bracket is up.

There are some unfamiliar names knocking on the door of the bracket. In the end, I took more familiar names like Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Southern Cal, Texas A&M and BYU over Providence, Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan, Miami-FL, and St. Mary's. But, there is new blood making a surge toward the bracket.

There were a number of casualties this week. Wisconsin, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, Miami-FL, and Michigan all fell out of the bracket. Georgetown was perilously close, too.

Tonight's GOI
--Kansas at Baylor. Both of these teams have designs on a top 5 seed. KU is in better shape at this stage.
--UConn at Louisville. Big East title and 1-seed implications. BIG ones.
--Pitt at Robert Morris. RMU is 9-1 at home and are winners of nine straight. They have been DESTROYING their conference competition of late. Could be interesting.
--Butler at UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix are also 9-1 at home and have been playing pretty well, too. Another chance for a high seed team to lose tonight.
--