The Bracket Board

Lockbox Update 1/26

2012-01-26T08:48:00.004-06:00

There has been major Bubble struggles this week, so this Lockbox has several teams "IN" that were not in Tuesday's full bracket.

IN: Oregon, New Mexico, Texas, Saint Louis

OUT: Marshall, UCF, Iowa State, Colorado State

Northwestern and Arkansas were close.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--18 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total departure from what they have shown to this point.
--I have six other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble (I'm looking at YOU, Alabama) or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 13 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday.. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket Update 1/24

2012-01-24T21:58:00.003-06:00

This week's bracket is up. It is still very fluid at the bottom, as it always is this time of year. I wound up taking Cincinnati, BYU, UCF, Iowa State, Mississippi, Marshall, NC State, and Colorado State from a group that also included New Mexico, Northwestern, Northern Iowa, UMass, Texas, Oregon, Stanford and a smattering of others.

Kansas and Ohio State moved onto the 1-seed line, as Baylor and Duke dropped down.

Full Lockbox coming late tomorrow or on Thursday.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown

Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota

Big East (8): Syracuse, Georgetown, Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia, Marquette, Louisville, Cincinnati

SEC (6): Kentucky, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida, Mississippi

ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, NC State

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Baylor, Missouri, Kansas State, Iowa State

Mountain West (4): UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State

CUSA (4): Memphis, Southern Miss, Marshall, UCF

West Coast (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU

A-10 (3): Dayton, Temple, Xavier

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

First Full Lockbox

2012-01-18T08:14:00.002-06:00

The season's first full Lockbox is up. For the uninitiated, this organizes teams by conference and is color-coded to reflect each team's "safety" in regards to the bracket. It is still early, and this is somewhat subjective, but the purpose here is get a sense of how many slots are truly up for grabs.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--13 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total departure from what they have shown to this point.
--I have 12 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 13 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday.. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket Update 1/17

2012-01-17T10:45:00.004-06:00

It is less than eight weeks until Selection Sunday, and the first bracket of the season is up. It is always wild and woolly at the bottom, and with 37 At-large teams and it being January and all, it is even wilder and woollier than it will be closer to Selection Sunday.

At the bottom, I took teams like Northwestern, Stanford, Xavier, Florida State, Marshall, BYU, Denver, NC State, New Mexico, and Minnesota over a host of others too long to list out. That said, Saint Joseph's, Texas, LSU, Ohio, and UCF were right there.

An full-color Lockbox is on deck for tomorrow, with the season's first "Bubble By the Numbers" post.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown

Big Ten (9): Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota

Big East (7): Syracuse, Georgetown, Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia, Marquette, Louisville

ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, NC State

SEC (5): Kentucky, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida

Mountain West (4): UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, New Mexico

Big 12 (4): Baylor, Kansas, Missouri, Kansas State

West Coast (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU

CUSA (3): Memphis, Southern Miss, Marshall

A-10 (3): Dayton, Temple, Xavier

Pac-12 (2): Cal, Stanford

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

Sun Belt (2): Middle Tennessee, Denver

Pre-Lockbox

2012-01-12T16:31:00.003-06:00

This preliminary Lockbox houses teams that are 1) current conference leaders (tie-breaker to the RPI) or 2) very likely to be in the bracket in two months time based on performance to this point in the season. And, I'm talking about no-brainers here. No Bubble Boys listed on this one.

There are some teams included here that have major questions surrounding them (Wisconsin's B1G struggles, Florida's lack of beefy wins, etc), but in those two cases, the efficiency numbers point to ultimate success. Wisconsin is #3 overall in the Pomeroy ratings, sport the nations lowest Turnover%, the nation's best EffectiveFG% defense, and #2 overall Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Gators are rated #13 overall with the #1 offense. For now, those two get the benefit of the doubt...for now. Wiscy will have to turn around that conference record and Florida will have to win a lot of SEC games. And, I expect both will do that...for now.

There are a couple of other teams that could fall out of favor, but the purpose here is to get a feel for how many slots are actually out there at any given time. In this case, there are 23 At-Large teams that I would deem "stunners" if they don't show up in March. That means everyone else is playing for about 14 At-Large slots if they fail to win their automatic bid.

Again, this is a pre-Lockbox, so a full one comes later next week. The season's first bracket is coming on Monday.

Oh, Minnesota! Where Be Thy Hoopsters?

2011-12-15T09:52:00.003-06:00

The Hoops Per Capita numbers show that Minnesota boasts just one DI hoops team. One team for over five million folks? What gives?

As mentioned a couple of days ago, other states with one team are in very low population states. It seems odd for a Big 6 school to have no in-state foil. The Lonely Gophers have no Creighton to their Nebraska, no Louisville to their Kentucky, no Nevada to their UNLV, no New Mexico State to their New Mexico. Further, they do not even have a "mid-major" to avoid and/or from which to demand two-home-games-for-a-neutral-site tilt in scheduling contracts: no Marshall to their West Virginia, no all-ten-other-Louisiana-schools to their LSU.

I do not have an answer here, but a question: is one hoops team enough for 5.3 million people? That ratio is twice as high as the next lowest state (Arizona) and 5.7 times higher than the national average.

Minnesotans: educate us.

HoopUcation: Hoops Per Capita (Capitol Edition)

2011-12-14T07:57:00.004-06:00

What is the capitol of college basketball? Is it Tobacco Road? Or, with Indiana's resurgence, is it back in the Kentuckiana triangle? As a lifelong Kentuckian, I have long argued that the most passionate region for hoops in our fair nation lay in the rolling hills of the Bluegrass State. But, "depth of passion," like "love," proves difficult to measure. Philosophical and abstract arguments abound when trying to communicate such concepts.

So, how about "Hoops Per Capita?" That is, proportionally, which states have the most DI hoops? Interestingly, neither North Carolina or Kentucky made the top ten in this measure, immediately calling into question HPC's validity in answer questions about "passion." But, from an access standpoint, one could do worse than to look to our nation's capitol to find our hoops capitol. Could this be?

The case looks better than I first thought. That said, we must begin with a caveat: the census numbers get a little tricky here, because everyone knows that metropolitan Washington, DC, has far more than 600,000 people. Nevertheless, the case should be heard. There are four DI basketball teams in a very concentrated area. Washington, DC, houses a storied Big 6 representative (Georgetown), a sometimes excellent non-Big 6 rep (George Washington), and two teams that rely on hopes of winning their conference tourney every season (American and Howard). Each team plays in a different conference. None of the four play "big time/IA/FBS" football. Further, DC is designated as a district, not a state, so it is "neutral" ground by design (unlike Tobacco Road or the Bluegrass). And, per capita, it has the most hoops by a wide margin.

Are DC folks the most passionate about hoops? Probably not. Do they have access, diversity, neutrality (hey, Kentuckians and Carolinians can drive to DC in a day!), and non-football purity in their hoops environment? Hoya, yeah, they do.

Tomorrow's question: Oh, Minnesota! Where be Thy Hoopsters?!?!?!

HoopUcation: College Hoopdom Map Complete!

2011-12-13T08:47:00.012-06:00

After six weeks of mapping and plotting, the 2011-12 College Hoopdom Map is complete! My four-year-old son and I had a great time talking about geography, team colors, and the like. While he learned a ton about American geography, he also learned about persistence. Working through 345 teams takes some time. He also learned about population and space, as jamming all of those team-colored circles into the New York City/New Jersey area was not easy. Dad had to do most of those and let the boy draw the circles and write in the in the roomier spaces in the great midwest and the Rocky Mountains. In the end, the most burning question for my four-year-old was this: why doesn't Alaska have a team? It was puzzling to him. Travel, weather, and distance concerns aside, to my son, it just was not fair.

What did I learn? Well, for starters, I find it odd that Minnesota has only one DI basketball team. I guess I knew this, but this is hard to explain on a DI-Hoops-Per-Capita level. For example, Nebraska has just 1.9 million people. But, Minnesota? It boasts 5.3 million people strong! It is similar in population to states like Maryland (eight DI teams), Missouri (five), Wisconsin (four), and Colorado (four). Further, other one-team states are low-population states and not one of them play in a Big 6 league: Hawaii, Maine, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Vermont, and Wyoming. Minnesota, by a wide margin, has the lowest DI-hoops-per-capita in the United States.

All that to say, here is the completed map followed by a couple of regional photos. A big thanks goes out to the Blue Ribbon Basketball Yearbook and Crayola.

Ye Realm of Hoopdom.

Concentration. It helps with free throws, but lives on the East Coast.

More hoops go here.

Bowling Green Versus Bowling Green

2011-12-05T14:45:00.002-06:00

How last night's WKU win over Bowling Green looked from my seat in Diddle Arena via the 800 Games Project at the Mid-Majority.

Unexpected Chili, Expected Hoops Result

2011-12-02T11:07:00.002-06:00

My take on last nights' WKU-Murray State tilt via the Mid-Majority's 800 Games Project.

Belted!

2011-11-16T10:55:00.002-06:00

The Sun Belt is off to a better-than-average start in the non-conference. Denver has posted a rare road win, FIU took out George Mason on a neutral court this week, and last night Middle Tennessee romped over UCLA by twenty (!) in Los Angeles. The Raiders are now 3-0 and have two home games this weekend, one of which will be Belmont if their home tourney bracket holds up.

WKU is playing in the ESPN Charleston Classic this weekend. The Tops face Tulsa on ESPN3 tomorrow at 11.30am CT. They will face either LSU or Northwestern on Friday.

Introducing #TeamReset

2011-11-15T13:46:00.002-06:00

The Bracket Board is happy to be a part of the Mid-Majority's 800 Games Project. Here is my first contribution on #TeamReset and write-up on last night's 52-49 Hilltopper win over Tennessee State.

WKU vs Tennessee State

2011-11-14T11:49:00.002-06:00

I am stacked up today, but a full write-up of tonight's Tennessee State at WKU tilt is forthcoming late tonight or tomorrow morning. It will be the first of several contributions to the Mid-Majority's 800 games project.

If you are not reading over there or following TMM and @800GP on Twitter, please do so. Great fun!

The River Wide

2011-11-11T13:30:00.003-06:00

Enjoy the rapids of this opening full weekend of college hoops! There are 230 games involving DI schools this weekend including 17 Sun Belt games. The WKU Hilltoppers open the season tonight by hosting Saint Joseph's.

TBB will be running the Chickamauga Marathon tomorrow at Fort Oglethorpe, Georgia. Situated just south of Chattanooga, I had hoped to catch a game there. Alas, the Mocs are at Indiana on Saturday.

More on Monday to recap the Sun Belt weekend and look toward that night's Tennessee State at WKU match up.

HoopUcation: Mapping College Hoopdom Update

2011-11-09T08:42:00.008-06:00

It is time for an update on the Mapping College Hoopdom project. A couple of short sessions over the course of the last week was capped by a marathon school-plotting episode last night. My four-year-old and I sat down for a good 1.5 hours and talked through the map while plotting a boatload of teams. His curiosity pulled him westward last night, so we plotted all of the Big Sky teams and all of the teams located in Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico while adding a smattering of other Western teams as well. A random set of other teams from all over Hoopdom were also plotted (which included a strange preoccupation with the state of Iowa).

While I do aim for unbiased assessment when building brackets, it is no secret that I am a "mid-major" fan through and through. So, when the Iowa Preoccupation emerged, my son asked, "Who is your favorite team in Iowa?," I immediately answered with Drake. So, the Bulldogs got the first plot-point in Hawkeye State. His response: "Drake is my favorite team in Iowa, too." Brainwashing. Bias. These are hallmarks of excellent parenting.

This is such an enjoyable DIY project. Our tools include:
--this online map
--the hard copy Blue Ribbon Basketball Yearbook
--hard copy of Rand McNally's Road Atlas
--two sheets of paper from those giant pads you have probably used in workshops at your place of employment
--lots of Crayola markers

College basketball fuels curiosity on so many levels. Engage it. Embrace it. Map it. Drive it. Attend it. The best learning and deeper understanding occur when our passion produces something. Looking at the college hoops map? Good. Creating a college hoops map? Better. Watching the game on TV? Good. Experiencing the game in the arena and adding to the noise and atmosphere in that place? Better.

A four-year-old ponders and plots the Montana Grizzlies.

Mapping College Hoopdom project's current status.

Head of the River

2011-11-07T08:41:00.004-06:00

Three games bubble onto the surface tonight and begin the trickle to a full, raging river that awaits us on the weekend. While there are no Sun Belt games tonight, a home state OVC club tips it off this evening: Eastern Kentucky plays at Mississippi State in the Coaches vs. Cancer.

The night's other two games include William & Mary at St. John's (another Coaches vs. Cancer match up) and Valparaiso at Arizona.

Sun Belt action starts on Friday. More on that coming later in the week.

HoopUcation: Introduction

2011-11-03T08:55:00.005-05:00

As I mentioned in the season’s initial post, a bracket-centric focus seems less relevant these days given the army of capable bracketeers out there. I find myself rethinking what I can add to this conversation, while not giving up “bracketing” every Sunday night from January until March. It has been a hobby of mine for over two decades now. I love engaging in the process, and will continue to do so. A longer essay about identity and doing work that we love will come later, but today I offer a taste of the kind of work that will happen here.

I am a teacher (more on that in the coming “love your work” essay). Helping students see academic disciplines at work in everyday life is a crucial element of my teaching philosophy. For my money, sports (and food) offer some of the richest interdisciplinary experiences we encounter (also, they are “five sense” experiences). So, in short, I feel the content of this blog going in the direction of answering a fundamental question: how can we use college basketball to teach ourselves and others about the world around us? As I said, a longer essay on all this is brewing.

Today, I offer an example of the kind of work I hope to share here on a regular basis this season. File this one under both “teacher” and “daddy.” As a boy growing up in the Eighties, I learned United States geography through college basketball conference affiliation. Some glorious weekend in October, Dick Vitale’s College Basketball Yearbook would hit the local drugstore’s magazine rack, and I would giddily grab it and run to my mother yelling “It’s here today! Can I get it?!” She always said “Yes,” and the stat-ogling would begin. When I grew tired of marveling at how many points Reggie Miller or Reggie Williams averaged or at the size of the Carrier Dome or at the enrollment at Texas, I moved on to drawing uniforms and mascots. Eventually, at some point, this rural Kentucky boy would dig up a map of the United States and hunt for places like Corvallis, Oregon, or Lafayette, Louisiana. I made it a point to know all of the Division I teams, their colors, and their mascots.

So, now as father-teacher, I aim to revisit some of these practices with a four-year-old boy (my daughter is a bit young for this right now, but I hope this can come for her, too). A current obsession of his happens to be maps. This sparked the thought of a massive college hoops project to usher in the season: plot all 345 teams. Yesterday, I created a giant paper map in pencil, and allowed my son to trace over the pencil sketch with a black marker to create those stark state borders essential to understanding concepts like “in-state rivalry” and “border wars.” Perhaps those concepts are a bit advanced for a four-year-old, but a sense of place and geography are not.

There will be more on this project as we go along, but a good work session last night yielded these results:

Overview.

Kentucky and Tennessee up close.

Note that we plotted WKU first, followed by other member Sun Belt institutions. After that, the remaining Kentucky schools went on. Beyond that, I left it up to my son to ask questions and pick states until the session ended. This morning, he rolled out of bed, and his first words to me were, “What about Rhode Island?” So, we put URI’s baby blue and Providence’s black on the map before breakfast.

Curiosity. It is the greatest gift given from teacher to student. And, actually, curiosity is not given, but stirred or inspired or uncovered. That is one of the greatest aspects of a sport with 345 teams: from year to year, there is always room for curiosity.

The Rules for 2011-12

2011-11-01T08:51:00.007-05:00

I feel what happens here is becoming less and less relevant. There are so many earnest bracket projections out there, I am not sure that my brackets contribute much in the way of accuracy. But, I was making projections long before I started posting them on a blog, and I would do them for fun anyway. That is how TBB started eight years ago: I began emailing them to some friends and we had fun discussing them. Once the email list grew a bit longer, I stuck them up on Tripod as a central location. If I unplugged today, I would still draw them out in pencil on 8x14 paper just as I did in my youth long before the internet. So, in some ways, I am simply sharing one of my rituals that has been part of my life as a hoops fan for many, many years.

All that said, a few words about what will happen here in 2011-12.

1. No bracket projections until at least New Year's Day. I base projections on results in a given season and nothing else. Until nearly all of the non-conference games are in the books, projections are too much like the popularity polls. Results, regardless of budget or conference or pre-season prognostications or preseason accolades, are all that matter in meaningful projections. This goes for the Lockbox as well. The first one will happen after New Year's Day.

2. This does not mean nothing important happens before January. Quite the opposite. Non-conference games are like the opening chapters to novels, and these first words are vital to the ultimate stories (glorious, mundane, tragic or otherwise) of all members in Hoopdom. I write about those stories from time to time. Also, with two kids under the age five, readers will likely have to endure some daddy-rambling on occasion, but I promise to make those ramblings relevant to the college hoops experience. No posts consisting of a dozen pics of my kids hamming it up with Big Red. However, I do feel drawn to share more about what it means to be a fan of a non-BCS team (WKU Hilltoppers). As I get older, the realities of identity, belonging, community, history, and ritual in "being a fan" of a school become clearer and more important to me. I hope I can share some of that as we go along.

3. Extra attention will be paid to WKU and Sun Belt members, especially before January. Also, non-SEC southern conferences get special treatment (especially the SoCon). History shows that they do not get preferences in the bracket projections, just in the amount of verbiage on TBB.

4. No Kardashians. Crap, just broke that one.

That is enough to serve as a start.

Final Bracket

2011-03-13T14:43:00.003-05:00

Here is my final bracket projection. I took Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, Colorado, Penn State (still playing), and Clemson as my last five, but there are a number of teams that could easily slide in depending on what the committee favors this year.

Also, our SCKySSiP Mock Committee yielded this S-Curve. Again, this is NOT a projection, but a replication of the selection process (or as close as we can get to replicating it).

Just a little over 3 hours until we see the real deal.

SCKySSiP Mock Committee

2011-03-12T06:25:00.001-06:00

The SCKySSiP (SKISS-ip) is in full swing, so most of my bracketing time is spent managing that process. An update on that process will come late tonight.

Bracket Breakdown 3/10

2011-03-10T06:04:00.003-06:00

The One Stop is up to date as is the Lockbox, which reflects the updated bracket.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Georgetown, Notre Dame, UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
ACC (6): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson
Big 12 (6): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big Ten (5): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan
Mountain West (3): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV
Pac 10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--20 teams are LOCKS at this point. More will achieve this status as the tourneys play out.
--22 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point. Several are a win away from LOCK status.
--I have 3 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but could use a win in their conference tourney to avoid the Bubble. That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket 3/10

2011-03-09T23:25:00.001-06:00

Updated bracket is up.

More as time allows on Thursday.

Updates 3/8

2011-03-08T23:21:00.002-06:00

Could not get to a bracket today. Too much going, including the SCKySSiP 6.0 kickoff. Our mock committee is "meeting" by electronification, so that's taking some time, too. Hopefully, a full bracket update comes tomorrow. But, the Lockbox and One Stop have been updated.

Terriers and Peacocks?

2011-03-08T06:17:00.002-06:00

Neither mascot will incite fear in the masses, but these critters can dance. Congrats to Wofford (SoCon) and Saint Peter's (MAAC). They have their golden tickets.

The Lockbox and One Stop are up to date. Full bracket coming later today or tonight.

First Tickets Punched

2011-03-06T06:29:00.002-06:00

Congrats to Morehead State (OVC), UNC-Asheville (Big South), and Belmont (A-Sun). So far, all the teams in the bracket are within a few hours drive of TBB's home base in Bowling Green. In Belmont's case, it's only one hour, and rest assured that some Big Conference U. coach is going to break into a cold sweat when they see Belmont pop up as their 12-13 seed.

One Stop is up to date.

Bracket Update 3/4

2011-03-04T18:22:00.000-06:00

New bracket up. More as time warrants.

One Stop Updated

2011-03-03T08:11:00.003-06:00

One Stop Shop has been updated. This is the last of the daily reminders. It will be updated daily/nightly, so just hit the link on the right.

Lots of Bubble turmoil last night. When that happens, I am loathe to make quick trigger changes. What is clear is that Georgia and Richmond got the double dose goodness of winning a game and having a lot of Bubble teams that were IN take a loss. Those two have to be feeling pretty good this morning. A loss at Alabama (Georgia) or Duquesne (Richmond) isn't likely to kill your season. One more win of any sort LOCKS Georgia (and they may be there already). Richmond still has work to do, but they got considerable help last night.

I tinkered with the Lockbox a bit, and may make some IN/OUT changes later.

Bubble Tonight
--More conference action in the American East, A-Sun, Big South, Missouri Valley, Northeast, and Ohio Valley.
--UCLA at Washington. UCLA is all but a lock. Washington could take a massive step toward solidifying their spot with a win. Otherwise, they remain scarily close to the Bubble's edge.
--Tennessee at South Carolina. Vols do not have that much room to spare. They need to take care of the Gamecocks or join Washington in "need some wins" mode in the conference tourney.

One Stop, Lockbox Updated

2011-03-02T08:47:00.002-06:00

The One Stop Shop is up to date through last night's conference tourney results. Tourney action continues in the A-Sun, OVC, and Patriot League tonight.

Lockbox has also been updated.

Bubble Tonight
--North Carolina at Florida State. 'Noles could all but seal it up with a big home win.
--St. Louis at Dayton. Flyers must have it.
--Richmond at Saint Joseph's. Spiders cannot afford any bad losses.
--Colorado at Iowa State. Buffaloes need to consolidate couple of solid, recent home wins with a road win over a lesser team.
--Cincinnati at Marquette. Marquette would have to feel solid if they could hold serve tonight.
--Minnesota at Northwestern. Feels like a must win for the Gophers.
--UAB at Southern Miss. Gigantic repercussions in CUSA standing and tourney as well as the larger Bubble.
--Utah at Colorado State. Rams have to pick up a few wins after blinking at Air Force last time out.
--LSU at Georgia. Dawgs can probably afford a loss or two, but this one would hurt.

One Stop Shop Is Rolling

2011-03-01T22:55:00.001-06:00

The One Stop Shop is up to date through tonight's conference tourney results. Thus begins the best three weeks in sports.

Bracket Update 3/1

2011-03-01T08:58:00.007-06:00

Updated bracket is up. Yes, that's Colorado in there. Yes, that's Butler in there, too. I took those two along with Memphis, Boston College, and Michigan State as the true bottom. Those bottom five could be shifted in or out pretty easily with teams like Dayton, Clemson, Michigan, Penn St, Colorado State or Baylor. Very fluid at the bottom.

Teams like Virginia Tech, Richmond, Washington, Illinois and maybe a couple of others are certainly in danger if they lose, but they can likely stay in if they win barring massive bid-stealing in the conference tourney.

I also moved BYU to the 1-seed line. And, the Lockbox is starting to fill up a bit. I have 20 teams LOCKED, and there are several more that will reach that status with one more win.

Finally, a shout out to Milwaukee, who came from off the pace to nip the Horizon front-runners and tie atop the league, earning the conference tourney 1-seed in the process. They closed with a 9-1 finish to the season.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Georgetown, Notre Dame, UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big 12 (6): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big Ten (5): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State
ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College
Mountain West (3): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV
Pac 10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion
CUSA (2): UAB, Memphis
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Horizon (2): Milwaukee, Butler

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--20 teams are LOCKS at this point, and that number will rise pretty rapidly as the last few games play out.
--23 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point. Several are a win away from LOCK status.
--I have 3 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. That means 26 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

One Stop Under Construction

2011-02-26T10:06:00.003-06:00

The One Stop Shop houses all 30 conference tourney brackets in one low-tech excel doc. It it under construction, and I'll work through it alphabetically. Brackets through CUSA are updated. I hope to finish the others early next week.

Bubble Breakdown

2011-02-23T14:33:00.003-06:00

I dropped Minnesota out of bracket (reflected in the last one and in today's Lockbox). No way a team who lost a significant player and finished 1-6 without him gets in with a 6-9 conference record if today was Selection Sunday.

Monstrous game in Lincoln, Nebraska, tonight. That's right--meaningful Husker Hoops in late February! The Huskers can earn a good win over K-State, put the Wildcats behind them in the standings, and they have an easier finishing schedule than does K-State.

Wisconsin at Michigan. This would be the kind of win to make Michigan a very serious at-large consideration. They have found the Bubble already.

VCU at Drexel. Dragons simply must have it and VCU has a razor-thin margin for error.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Georgetown, Notre Dame, UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big 12 (5): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big Ten (5): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College
Mountain West (4): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State
CUSA (3): UAB, Memphis, Southern Miss
Pac 10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (3): George Mason, Old Dominion, VCU
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--10 teams are LOCKS at this point, and that number will rise pretty rapidly as the last few games play out.
--21 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point.
--I have 4 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment (and it stubbornly staying there). Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket Update 2/23

2011-02-22T23:08:00.002-06:00

Bracket has been updated.

Marquette, Gonzaga, VCU, and Southern Miss found their way in at the bottom. Minnesota, Dayton, Butler, Michigan, Nebraska and a few others were close.

Full breakdown and updated Lockbox tomorrow.

First LOCKS

2011-02-20T07:03:00.001-06:00

Lockbox has been updated. Butler creeps back in for the first time in a LONG time and fellow non-power perennial Gonzaga is on the verge.

Also, we have our first LOCKS of the season. These teams could lose out and still make it into the bracket: Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, Texas, Pitt, Georgetown. Lots more coming with one more win.

Bracket Update 2/17

2011-02-17T11:16:00.003-06:00

Bracket has been updated, as has the Lockbox.

Those last couple of bids are really painful at the moment. Is Michigan State really IN? Southern Miss? I'd like to say "no," but those last couple plus all the teams that were close (Clemson, Oklahoma State, Mississippi, UAB, UTEP, Missouri State, Harvard, VCU, Dayton, Gonzaga, among others) are certainly no better.

Ole Miss is interesting. They will be favored in every game they have left except maybe a home tilt vs Alabama. They are 5-2 in their last 7. A big finish and a win or two in the SEC Tourney could get them home even after their atrocious start in the SEC.

VCU was badly damaged by getting blasted at home by the other two CAA contenders (GMU, ODU) this week. One also wonders how Butler or Cleveland State will look on SelSun if they gallop home and lose in the Horizon Tourney final. The Vikes have a nice RPI, but very little substance in their wins (best win: Valpo, OOC: Kent St). Butler's loss to Y-town State borders on unforgivable. But, a loss to Valpo or CSU in the tourney final would probably put them squarely on the Bubble.

Some of the very top teams will be LOCKED in by winning this weekend. Even 4-5 games losing streaks obviously would not keep Ohio State or a few others out at this point. The LOCKS will start to trickle in this weekend.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Notre Dame, Villanova, UConn, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big 12 (6): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Baylor
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan State
ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State
CUSA (3): Memphis, Southern Miss
Pac 10 (3): , Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--No teams are LOCKS at this point, though that will change as early as next week.
--21 AL teams are listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point.
--I have 4 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 12 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Lockbox Update 2/16

2011-02-16T13:59:00.002-06:00

Lockbox has been updated. Full bracket and breakdowns tomorrow.

Lockbox Update 2/10

2011-02-10T06:20:00.004-06:00

The Lockbox has been updated and the Bubble still stands at a healthy 13 slots. This is a good time to clarify how my bracket projections differ from the Lockbox. The bracket is based upon results as of today (or the day the bracket was created). The Lockbox looks at that, plus the remaining schedule.

For example, I believe UCLA is a near lock to make the tourney. They are 7-1 in their last eight games, have nice wins over BYU and St. John's OOC, and haven't lost to any terrible Pac-10 teams to this point. This does not mean that can't miss (near lock, not LOCK), but it would take a severe turn for the worse given where they are and what they have left. On the other hand, Vanderbilt has a better overall profile than UCLA, but are 4-4 in league and have demonstrated that they can lose to bad SEC teams (South Carolina, Arkansas). Further, their division is a meat grinder, and the 'Dores have lots of heavy lifting left (Kentucky twice, Florida, red hot Alabama, at Georgia). They still have work to do even though if the season ended today, they would likely garner a higher seed than UCLA.

Hence, some teams with weaker profiles than a team like Vandy are listed as near locks, while teams like Vandy or Cincinnati are not.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (10): Pitt, Notre Dame, Villanova, UConn, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati, St. John's
Big 12 (6): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
SEC (6): Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big Ten (5): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State
CUSA (3): UTEP, Memphis, UAB
Pac 10 (3): , Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--No teams are LOCKS at this point, though that will change in a couple of weeks.
--20 AL teams are listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point.
--I have 4 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 13 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket Update 2/08

2011-02-08T10:22:00.002-06:00

Bracket is up, and the Lockbox is up to date.

At the bottom, I took Boston College, Richmond, Washington, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Memphis and UAB over a group that included Missouri State, Dayton, Mississippi, Washington State, Michigan State, Harvard, New Mexico, Southern Miss, Marquette, Baylor, Duquesne...well, a bunch. It's very fluid at the bottom.

Full honkin' Bubble breakdown coming tomorrow or Thursday.

Lockbox Update/Thursday GOI

2011-02-03T10:09:00.005-06:00

The Lockbox has been updated. Penn State got squeezed out as there has been some shakeup of the conference leaders this week, which affected the number of available AL slots.

Tonight's GOI
--Liberty at Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers have already won at Liberty, so a win here puts the Flames two games back and gives Coastal the tie-breaker, which essentially makes it a 3-game lead with 6 to play.
--Valparaiso at Cleveland State. For sole possession of first in the Horizon, plus Bubble implications.
--FAU at North Texas. The best team in the Sun Belt on the road against the team most people expected to be the best.
--Gonzaga at Portland. Zags are going to need a big, big finish.

Bracket Update 2/1

2011-02-01T10:28:00.003-06:00

It's February, which means the Bubble will likely get smaller, not larger as we head toward March.

A new bracket is up. Virginia Tech, George Mason, Colorado State, Richmond, Washington State, and Marquette found their way in over Penn State, UAB, Kansas State, Maryland, Clemson and a smattering of others.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Villanova, UConn, Syracuse, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati, St. John's, Marquette
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State
SEC (6): Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
ACC (5): Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (4): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri
Pac 10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona, Washington State
Mountain West (4): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (3): VCU, Old Dominion, George Mason

Lockbox 1/31

2011-01-31T09:21:00.005-06:00

Lockbox has been updated. A full bracket update will come tomorrow. The Bubble is down one from the last update to 12 slots.

A complete breakdown of the Bubble comes on Wednesday.

And, if you want Bubble and bracket tweets/links, you can follow me on Ye Olde Twitter.

Mostly Jimmer-free Post

2011-01-27T09:01:00.002-06:00

Crap. I put Jimmer in the title.

Some major GOI tonight.

--St. Mary's at Gonzaga. Zags really need this one. They will be 3 back of SMC with a loss and if San Francisco wins at LMU, Zags would trail the Dons by two games for 2nd place in the WCC.
--Hofstra at VCU. Winner takes sole possession of first in the CAA.
--Middle Tennessee at FAU. Owls would be FOUR games clear in the Sun Belt East with a win. They are 12-2 in their last 14 games, have won seven straight, and looking like the class of the Belt.
--UCLA at Arizona. Badly needed by both.

Bubble Breakdown 1/26

2011-01-26T11:39:00.004-06:00

Time for the first full Bubble Breakdown. The Lockbox has been slightly tweaked since Monday.

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big East (11): Pitt, Villanova, UConn, Syracuse, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati, St. John's, Marquette
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota
ACC (5): Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia Tech
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Big 12 (5): Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Pac 10 (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona, Washington State
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (3): VCU, Old Dominion, George Mason
Mountain West (3): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--No teams are LOCKS at this point, though that will change in a couple of weeks.
--15 AL teams are listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point.
--I have 9 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 13 at the moment. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket Update 1/24

2011-01-24T20:58:00.005-06:00

New bracket is up. The Lockbox reflects this bracket as well.

--1-seeds are a bit muddier now (especially since Pitt lost tonight, not reflected in this bracket). But, Ohio State is easing forward and if San Diego State can win at BYU this week, one would have to see them as having an inside track. I imagine there is much jostling to be done this season for these 1-seeds.
--It is always messy at the bottom. This year is no different, but with the expanded field it is pretty danged ugly at the very bottom. In the spots truly up for grabs, I took Old Dominion, Virginia Tech, UCLA, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Washington State, Gonzaga, Richmond, and George Mason over the near misses which included Butler, Kansas St, Miami-FL, Dayton, Colorado State, Wichita State, Dayton and UAB (among a few others).

Full Bubble Breakdown coming on Wednesday.

Lockbox Update 1/23

2011-01-23T08:41:00.002-06:00

Lockbox is up. Full bracket later today or tomorrow.

Some tidbits.

1. Probably not feasible, but all six SEC East teams hit the board (5 in) and no teams from the West are even close.

2. UCF, we hardly knew ye. Home losses to East Carolina and Rice will do in a 13-0 start pretty quickly.

3. Never expected Kansas State or Baylor to miss brackets at any point this season. Both out today.

First Bracket 1/16

2011-01-16T23:14:00.003-06:00

There are still a LOT of teams in the mix in this first bracket of 2011, so a total bracket breakdown would be too unwieldy. I will sort some things out in the Lockbox update on Wed or Thursday.

That said, at the bottom, I took Marquette, Florida State, Colorado, Penn State, Virginia Tech, Cleveland State, Old Dominion, and Arizona over teams like Washington State, Memphis, Baylor, Wichita State, Miami-FL, and Richmond. It is easy to make arguments for/against right now. Things will shape up as we go.

Eleven teams are IN from the Big East. This will likely shrink a spot or two...likely.

Syracuse, Ohio State, and Kansas are no-brainer 1-seeds right now (all undefeated). I took San Diego State over Duke for now for the last 1-seed. The Aztecs have a higher RPI, are still undefeated, and have five top 100 RPI road wins. Duke has none. In fact, SD State is 7-0 in true roadies while Duke is 1-1.

Eight weeks until Selection Sunday.

Weekend Forecast

2011-01-14T13:03:00.002-06:00

Each weekend will clear up the very muddy tourney picture from here on out.

Friday
--Iona at Rider. Two one-loss MAAC teams that trail Fairfield by a game.
--Valparaiso at Wright State. Two of four Horizon teams log-jammed atop the league at 4-1.
Saturday
--Arizona State at Arizona. In-state rivalry alert and the Cats are a Bubbly looking bunch.
--Oklahoma State at Colorado. Very intriguing match up of Big 12 hopefuls.
--Temple at Duquesne. Dangerous roadie for the Owls.
--Old Dominion at Hofstra. Your CAA leader is not ODU, GMU, Drexel or VCU. It's the Pride (5-0).
--Marquette at Louisville. These kind are precious. Eagles need it more.
--Georgia at Mississippi. Dogs are going to need all the West wins they can get to pad the win total.
--Boston College at Miami-FL. Two of the ACC's masses that need sorting.
--Northwestern at Michigan State. Tough one for Carmody's bunch, but they will need a few against the cream of the Big 10.
--San Diego State at New Mexico. Aztecs put their 16-0 record up at The Pit. Maybe the Game o' the Weekend.
--Georgetown at Rutgers. Hoyas gotta have this one at 1-4 in the league.
--UCF at Southern Miss. Knights need to bounce back from their first loss.
--Washington State at Stanford. NCAA fringe teams with a need for a big second half of the season.
--Missouri at Texas A&M. Nice Big 12 match up. Tigers need some road meat if they are going to garner a high seed.
--Illinois at Wisconsin. Tasty, single digit seediness.
--Dayton at Xavier. A10 bubbliness.
--Cleveland State at Youngstown State. Vikes are going to need to win a bunch to keep AL hopes alive.
Sunday
--Washington at California. Huskies are the fave. Bears could help themselves tons with a chance at home here.
--Notre Dame at St. John's. One will drop to .500 in the Big East. These feel like tourney teams, but crazy things can happen. Every win is precious.
--Purdue at West Virginia. One of the bigger non-conference games out there.
--Butler at Wright State. Tough roadie for BU.
--

Lockbox 1/13

2011-01-13T09:39:00.003-06:00

The first real Lockbox is up.

It is still early, but late enough to get some idea about the wider picture. A few thoughts to accompany this Lockbox.

1. No matter how high your non-conf RPI was, you will still have to win some conference games. This means you, Georgetown. And, Tennessee, Kansas State, and Miami-FL. Still very early, though.

2. Has their been a power conference division worse than the SEC West? Is there any SEC East team that would not win the West? Maybe Tennessee is in too much disarray and maybe South Carolina just is not good enough. But, even those two are debatable.

3. I do not believe the Big East will not send 11 teams in March. Not enough wins to go around.

A proper bracket comes on Monday.

Pre-Lockbox

2010-12-31T08:27:00.003-06:00

This is not a full-on Lockbox, but rather a "pre-Lockbox." This has all the conference leaders (potential automatic bids) along with the at-large teams that seem (to me) nearly certain given their performance thus far. Now, it is still very early, but I would be utterly shocked if any of the 13 at-large teams I put in somehow miss the bracket in March.

The purpose of this pre-Lockbox is to give a sense of how many AL slots are actually out there. I have reasons for choosing these leaders and AL teams, but it's pretty easy to poke holes in my logic at this early stage. The picture will become clearer and clearer as we go along.

Remember, with the expansion to a 68 team bracket, there are now 37 slots for AL teams. So, if these 13 are pretty much certain, the rest of hoops nation is battling for about 24 invitations if they do not win their league's auto bid.

I will put together a full Lockbox soon and an initial bracket sometime before mid-January.

Sunny Opportunities II

2010-12-21T22:21:00.002-06:00

The Belt made good on 4/6 games Tuesday night, with Troy picking up its first win of the season on a neutral court vs Western Michigan.

More opportunities await on Wednesday.

--FAMU at FIU
--Oral Roberts vs UALR
--Idaho State vs Troy
--Northern Colorado at UL-Monroe
--Arkansas State at Missouri State

One big one:
--North Texas at LSU

One MASSIVE one:
--Louisville at WKU

Sunny Opportunities

2010-12-20T16:07:00.002-06:00

The Sun Belt has a load of chances to finish the non-conference with a flurry over the next couple of days.

Tonight
--UA-Pine Bluff at Denver. Pioneers need all the wins they can get, and UAPB hasn't broken through in the W column to date.
--Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee. It doesn't get much bigger than this for Belt home games.
--Alcorn State at South Alabama. USA also faces a winless SWAC team.
--UL-Lafayette at New Mexico State. Cajuns have already fallen to the Aggies at home this season.
--UALR at Akron. Tough one, but a chance to score a good win here on a neutral court.
--Western Michigan at Troy. Trojans still seeking their first win.

Project Mockingbird 2011

2010-12-16T09:28:00.002-06:00

This is pretty much a re-post of last year's call to create your own Mock Selection Committee. Only one other group apart from TBB gave this a shot, with some mixed results. The "Omaha Group" got pretty far into the process, but had to throw in the towel before totally completing the deal. I am hoping Team Omaha can give it a shot again this year.

So, do you want to go beyond the bracket? Want to demystify the selection process? Want to free yourself of parroting the IN/OUT claims of "bracketologists"? Do it yourself. No, do not put 65 teams together yourself. There are a great number of people who already do that pretty well.

Instead, become a recruiter and a facilitator. Don't be an army of one, but a oligarchy of ten (or seven or four...). Wrangle up some friends who 1) love college hoops, 2) have a high tolerance for reading tedious rules and regulations, 3) enjoy voting, 4) REALLY enjoy voting, 5) can devote a lot of time reviewing resumes in February and March, and 6) can block off March 12 and 13 on their calendars.

If you have a group that fits the criteria above, all you need is a meeting place be it physical or virtual (I've participated in "mock" committees that have done both).

TBB will keep you posted on where we are in our sixth version of our own committee (the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project or SCKySSiP [SKISS-up]), but your home grown version can start by reviewing the NCAA Men's Selection Committee Principles and Procedures which is generally referred to as the "selection criteria."

Also, here is a page that has a bunch of List 8 ballots and an S-Curve. More stuff will be posted as the season goes along, but the selection criteria and these docs are the building blocks. I am here to help you answer logistical questions about how to vote, meet, how much time this will take, etc. I can only share my own experience, but I have done it six times, so I might be able to save you some headaches on the front end. More on Mockingbird as the season progresses.

This is the ultimate DIY Project for college hoops junkies. The way we do it is not perfect, but we have learned a lot over the years and there is great value in replicating the process versus guessing what the actual committee will do. Huge difference. This is active learning at its finest.

Pre-Xmas Watch List

2010-12-13T14:36:00.002-06:00

Pay attention to these below-the-radar clubs. No need to track the power conferences, as anyone winning will get plenty of watching.

Vermont (7-2). So, the Siena win looks less impressive, but they also won at Quinnipiac (no slouch), and their losses are to UConn and BYU. They currently have a top 50 RPI as well. At-large is a real long shot, but the Catamounts are playing well.

Belmont (6-2). No bad losses, and they have trounced everyone not name Vandy or Tennessee except MTSU, whom the Bruins beat in OT. The efficiency numbers like them, too.

Old Dominion (8-2). Won the Paradise Jam and toting wins over Clemson, Xavier, Richmond and Dayton. Lost at Delaware, but still, the Monarchs are in a strong position.

UCF (7-0). Win over Florida...and everyone they have played.

Cleveland State (10-0). Not the strongest of schedules, but still blemish-free and 2-0 in conference (both road wins).

The Ivy. 8/10 teams are .500 or better with three in the Top 100 RPI at this early stage (Harvard, Princeton, Yale).

Absolute Monarchs

2010-11-23T14:48:00.004-06:00

Old Dominion is your Paradise Jam champeen. Nicely done, Monarchs.

Some big games tonight.

--Butler at Siena. Two non-power powerhouses of recent times.
--Duke vs Kansas State. For all the CBE marbles.
--Gonzaga vs Marquette. The consolation CBE match is not bad, either.
--UConn vs Michigan State. Sparty is the favorite in Maui.
--Kentucky vs Washington. NBA score seems likely in this one.

Turkey Brackets

2010-11-22T13:06:00.002-06:00

Some more preseason tourney action today. Brackets below.

CBE Classic

Maui Invitaional

Paradise Jam

TBB on Twitter

2010-11-17T21:35:00.001-06:00

You can now follow TBB on Twitter if you so desire. There is a permalink to your right as well.

Sun Belt Slate

2010-11-17T14:11:00.001-06:00

The Belt has a tough row to hoe tonight.

--Arkansas State vs Belmont. The Bruins are a perennial A-SUN power and the Red Wolves did not look that hot against Missouri State. They need to salvage a win here.
--UAB at Middle Tennessee. The Raiders score a nice home game here, but MTSU looks to be down this year. This would be a big win if they pull it off.
--UL-Lafayette at Creighton. ULL is rebuilding and Creighton is usually very tough at home.
--South Alabama at Southern Miss. USM looks to be up this year and USA is an unknown quantity at this point.

Tonight's GOI
--Utah State at BYU. In-state rivalry alert! Always a big one and often factros into future Bubble discussions.
--Murray State at Mississippi. Racers are the OVC fave and return a good bit from last year's 31-5 club that topped Vanderbilt in the NCAA Tourney's 1st round. It's a different team, but expects to be a very good one.

WKU Moves to 2-0

2010-11-15T12:43:00.004-06:00

WKU moved to 2-0 on the season with an easy win over Alabama A&M. The Tops next face Minnesota in the Puerto Rico Shootout on Thursday.

Tonight's GOI
--Stetson at Bethune-Cookman. The Hatters try to consolidate their big road win over Wake.
--Ohio State at Florida. Two teams already thinking about seeding.
--UL-Monroe at Iowa. SD State did it...
--Butler at Louisville. The Cards open up to new YUM! Center. Big test for the Bulldogs.
--Texas Tech at North Texas. Huge home game for the Belt's Mean Green.
--San Diego State at Gonzaga. Bigger for the Aztecs.
--NIT Tip Off

Weekend Forecast

2010-11-12T13:33:00.002-06:00

Forecast: tidal wave. Enjoy.

TBB will drill down a bit deeper on the Sun Belt. There are fifteen Belt games this weekend including a whopping 12 tonight. The most interesting ones:

--WKU @ Saint Joseph's. Two of the better non-Power clubs of the 00's. Both have a lot of new faces, but WKU certainly has the experience advantage while SJU gets the home court.

--New Mexico State @ UL-Lafayette. The Cajuns open with a bang, hosting one of the premier non-BCS clubs in the USofA.

--UC-Santa Barbara vs Denver. The Pioneers play three this weekend: this one, Oregon, and North Dakota State (all in Eugene, OR). Some neutral wins would be an indicator that Denver might be more than just a home court hero this season. In Belt play, they rarely win on the road, but rarely lose at home. A couple of neutral wins could signal good things.

--UC-Davis vs FAU. The Owls are just over in Portland, OR, to face UC-D tonight, vs Milwaukee tomorrow, and @Portland tomorrow on Sunday. They have been picked to challenge WKU in the Belt East. If that is true, they should have a shot at two wins out there.

Come on, Belt. Let's get off to a great start.

Hoops on TV

2010-11-08T12:58:00.002-06:00

Great reference link for keeping track of tube hoops via Matt Sarz.

First Games of Import

2010-11-08T12:48:00.002-06:00

The Games of Import (GOI) are a near-daily occurrence at TBB and this is the first edition. There are four games tonight, so they all get top billing.

Coaches vs Cancer
--UC-Irvine @ Illinois
--Seattle @ Maryland
--Rhode Island @Pittsburgh
--Navy @ Texas

Sun Belt Schedules Preview

2010-11-05T20:01:00.005-05:00

You can read lots of preseason predictions of all conferences elsewhere, including the Sun Belt. Since TBB attempts to focus on what is and not what might be, we will look at schedules. This will also give some insight into the challenging world of non-BCS scheduling.

EAST
FIU: host Florida State, Utah Valley, Chattanooga, Jackson State, Bowling Green, Sam Houston, Florida A&M; @Marshall, @Louisville, @Utah Valley. Not great, but pretty good by FIU standards. They get docked for opening with two non-DI teams.

FAU: host American, South Florida, Manhattan; neutral UC-Davis, Milwaukee; @Portland, @Florida, @George Mason, @Mississippi State, @Hofstra, @Siena, @DePaul. FAU should be decent, but these roadies are murder. They play five straight roadies in December. But, they have USF at home and do play some strong teams.

Middle Tennessee. host UAB, Evansville, Furman, Vanderbilt, Tennessee State; neutral Campbell, Samford; @Auburn, @Tennessee, @SIU-Edwardsville, @Belmont, @Evansville. The Raiders have a couple of good home games and a couple of normally winnable roadies. Too bad they are likely down this season.
South Alabama: host Central Michigan, LSU, Houston Baptist, Alcorn State; @Southern Miss, @UAB, @Alabama, @Louisville, @Georgia Southern. Not a lot to get excited about here.

Troy: host UAB, Belmont; neutral Western Michigan, Idaho State; @Utah State, @Alabama, @Georgia State, @UTSA, @Mississippi State, @Arkansas, @Miami-OH. Brutal. As always.

WKU: host Alabama A&M, South Carolina, Southern Illinois, Louisville, Florida Gulf Coast; neutral Minnesota (plus Puerto Rico tip-off); @Saint Joseph's, @Vanderbilt, @Memphis, @Bowling Green, @Murray State. Pretty stacked, especially if the dominoes fall right in Puerto Rico, (North Carolina likely awaits if WKU can beat UMinn).

WEST
Arkansas State: host Alabama State, Savannah State, Lamar; neutral Missouri State; @
Mississippi, @Memphis, @Missouri State, @Georgia. While the home schedule is abysmal, there are a couple of decent, winnable road games for stAte if they are as good as many think.

Denver: host Colorado State, Alcorn State, Utah State, CS-Northridge, Portland, Northern Colorado, Arkansas-Pine Bluff; neutral ND State, UCSB; @Oregon, @Boise State, @Southern Miss, @Wyoming. The Pioneers are Jekyll at home and Hyde on the road. So, it's good news that they play 9/13 non-conference games either at home or on a neutral court.

Louisiana: host New Mexico State, Cleveland State, Lamar, Centenary; @Creighton, @Houston, @McNeese State, @Tulane, @UCF, @New Mexico State. Two games against NMSU is nice, but these roadies will be tough for a team in transition.

North Texas: host Texas Tech, Rice, UT-Arlington, Grambling, Jackson State, Texas State; @Kansas, @Texas State, @Texas Southern, @Sam Houston, @LSU. This is a pretty weak home slate for the defending champs and a team that should be pretty tough. They also scheduled two non-DI games. The Belt needs more from the Mean Green, but it's tough to get NCAA-hopeful teams in your gym when you are dangerous and play in the Sun Belt.

UL-Monroe: host Stephen F. Austin, Centenary, Northern Colorado; neutral Jacksonville State, South Dakota; @Illinois State, @Kent State, @Louisiana Tech, @UTEP. The Warhawks have a new coach and only two contributors from last season return. Given their situation, this is not a bad schedule.

UALR: host Illinois State, LA Tech, Tulsa, Mississippi, St. Bonaventure; neutral Akron, Oral Roberts, Stetson; @SMU, @St. Bonaventure, @Oral Roberts, @Missouri State, @Rice. Meh. But, the Trojans are trying to recover from a couple of subpar years by their standards.

Bracket Bloated

2010-11-01T13:54:00.002-05:00

Do I want to continue projecting brackets if this thing swells to 96 teams?

I had decided the answer to that question was a resounding, "NO." But, what we have is a little weight gain, perhaps even borderline obesity with the bracket ballooning to 68 teams. Of course, bloating long ago cemented itself as an American pastime. I wish the bracket would eat more fruits and veggies, get more exercise and slim back down to its once svelte 64 self. If it ever does Cracker Barrel its way to 96, I will refer it to bariatric surgery by a specialist and retire.

All that said, this is a quick reminder of what happens here.

1. No preseason bracket projections. TBB evaluates results, not rosters; criteria, not recruiting; 2010 accomplishments, not those from past seasons.

2. No projections before Jan 1. Teams need to play some games outside of their own gym before any meaningful evaluation can be made. Even then, projections do not mean much until late January.

3. This space is WKU and Sun Belt heavy in November and December.

4. TBB occasionally may or may not do interesting things from now until January. Once we do hit January, the schedule looks something like this:
--Monday: Bracket
--Tues: Bracket Buster Update
--Wed: Lockbox updates
--Thurs: State of the Sun Belt
--Fri: Weekend Forecasts

Sweet 16

2010-03-22T05:49:00.002-05:00

Five of the eight remaining match ups in our national championship bracket will pit a Big 6 conference against a non-Big 6 conference. This will keep me very interested.

Day One Recap

2010-03-19T06:11:00.002-05:00

First, here is an actual bracket of results.

Second, yesterday yielded the most single day double-digit seed winners in ages (1991). Further, 8 non-BCS teams advanced, fully half of the games yesterday.

There were lots of great moments, but the most shocking to me was seeing Ohio hand a 97-spot on Georgetown. Wow.

Old Dominion's win was not surprising. They have been solid all season. Murray State has been, too, but has always come up short against top competition. Not yesterday.

Day Two awaits.

Bracket Reaction

2010-03-15T10:02:00.003-05:00

There is not too much to pick at here. I would grade this a B+ job by this committee. I had Virginia Tech IN over Florida, but those last couple of slots were so close. That's the only team that I missed. So, 64/65 teams, 31 seeded exactly, and 58 within one seed line of actual. Pretty darned close.

There are a couple of seeds that are puzzling.

1. Putting Duke ahead of Syracuse on the S-Curve is nearly indefensible. I get that Duke won both the ACC regular season and tourney. But, that's only enough to beat out West Virginia (and that's even debatable), not Syracuse. Simply look at all the numbers that matter. The Orange have a better profile.

Duke beat ONE top 25 RPI team. Syracuse beat five. Syracuse was 8-1 in true road games, while Duke was 5-5. OOC wins are comparable, but I would take Cuse's wins over Cal, Cornell, Marquette, Memphis, Oakland, Florida, and North Carolina (5 NCAA teams) over Duke's wins over Gonzaga, Arizona State, UConn, Tulsa, Charlotte, and St. John's (1 NCAA team). Again, the Orange clearly have a better profile. Now, again, Duke did win both the ACC regular season and tourney titles.

That makes this team an even bigger puzzler...

2. Temple. I nearly put them at a 2 seed! I thought they were easily a 3 at worst and they land at 5. That's particularly difficult to understand given that the reasoning for Duke over Cuse was "regular season and conference champs." Temple did that, too, in the #7 RPI league. The Owls were #8 RPI; beat Villanova, Siena, Virginia Tech, and Seton Hall out of conference; piled up 12 road wins; had a better SOS than Ohio State, New Mexico, and Purdue; had no sub-100 losses (worst loss at @#82 RPI St. John's); won 10 straight to close the season.

And, that garnered only a 5 seed? Temple earned a protected seed. Period.

Those are the only two major issues to me. Otherwise, I thought this committee did a very good job. They handled the Bubble extremely well. Anyone who is not IN knows exactly why they are at home.

And that is the mark of a good committee.

Final Projection

2010-03-14T15:12:00.004-05:00

Final bracket is up. It's a crap shoot for those last 4 or 5 slots. I am taking Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Utah State, and UTEP in my last four. I will not be shocked to see Illinois, Mississippi State, Florida or Seton Hall show up. Even Ole Miss or Rhode Island would not be total stunners. And, I assure you, Cal is not resting easy, either.

Duke and West Virginia are very close for the final #1 seed. I am sticking with Duke because they won both the regular season and tourney titles. They likely will be out West together.

Lockbox has been updated.

SCKySSiP Complete!

2010-03-14T07:23:00.003-05:00

We have a few contingencies that could change things, but our work is done. Here is the SCKySSiP mock committee's bracket. Remember, this committee replicated the selection process. We in no way tried to "guess" what the committee will do. Huge difference.

If Duke loses today, West Virginia gets the West #1. If Duke wins, they keep it. New Mexico State knocked out Illinois last night.

Last Four IN: Minnesota, Utah State, UTEP, Virginia Tech

Next Five OUT: Illinois, Florida, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Seton Hall.

VA Tech gets the axe if Miss State beats Kentucky today.

The mock committee worked from 3.30pm until nearly midnight last night. Great fun and a lot of learning took place. The most important lesson is realizing that those last few teams are like picking the prettiest skunk. Anyone who does this will find themselves seeing far less injustice when the bracket comes out. One could take any of our "next five out" and replace any our of our "last few in" and I would not bat an eye.

The Lockbox has been updated. My final projection will be up this afternoon sometime.

The One Stop is up to date as well.

SCKySSiP Day

2010-03-13T10:30:00.002-06:00

The bracket has been slightly tweaked. Mostly some seed jostling (K-State up to 2, New Mexico down to 3, plus a few others).

One Stop is up to date. Huge day, of course.

The Lockbox has been adjusted a bit, too.

It's SCKySSiP day, so we'll be hard at work from 3 pm forward today deep into the night. I'll post updates really late tonight or early in the morning. Project Mockingbird has a sister committee in Omaha that is meeting today, too. It will be interesting to compare results of replicating the process.

Friday Updates

2010-03-12T10:18:00.006-06:00

The bracket has been updated. EDIT: Again at 6.20PM CT. Washington IN, Mississippi OUT. I have not been a fan of the Rebels all season. They simply do not look like a tourney team to me and their numbers just are not that great. Again, I do live in SEC country, so maybe I have seen them too many times compared to SD State or Washington. And, while the Huskies are deeply flawed, if they beating Stanford and making the Pac 10 final is going to help them versus the likes of Ole Miss, Memphis, UAB, UConn, Cincy, etc. But, they must first do that tonight.

Lockbox has been adjusted a bit. Wake and Missouri are likely IN, but they are backing in. They are not exactly going to strike fear into the hearts of their first-round opponents.

One Stop is up to date (and I corrected the SoCon bracket) and will again be updated numerous times throughout the day. There are tons of important games for Bubble teams today and there will be seismic activity in the Bubble landscape this afternoon and evening. Those last 2-3 slots could look totally different when the day is done.

Bracket Update

2010-03-11T06:15:00.003-06:00

EDIT: Lockbox update at 2.30 CT. Illinois IN, Memphis OUT. Houston damaged Memphis badly today. I thought the Tigers needed to make the CUSA final to harbor real hopes come Sunday. We'll see how the rest of the Bubble does, though.

Bracket has been updated.

One Stop Shop will be updated frequently once games get going today.

The SCKySSiP (South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project--ridiculously long name used for effect) is in full swing. We have voted 29 teams IN at this point.

Lockbox Update

2010-03-10T21:11:00.003-06:00

Lockbox has been updated. I think the Bubble is down to six slots and I took Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Georgia Tech, Memphis, Rhode Island, and Mississippi over Arizona State, Washington, UAB, Seton Hall, South Florida, Illinois, and Dayton along with some other fringe teams.

Still plenty of hoops for this to look much different come Sunday. Georgia Tech badly needs a win. Illinois could jump in with a victory over Wiscy. Florida could slide back onto the Bubble if they lose their first SEC game. There are plenty of others playing for their lives (Ole Miss, Dayton, Miss State...).

The One Stop is being updated multiple times per day. Bracket update later tonight or tomorrow.

One Stop Complete

2010-03-09T11:56:00.001-06:00

The One Stop now has all 30 brackets full.

Bracket and Lockbox tweaking will occur as warranted.

The No-Doubt Panthers

2010-03-08T06:18:00.002-06:00

Northern Iowa has been the best Valley team all season. Nothing in the conference tourney remotely challenged that fact. UNI is IN.

Lockbox update: South Florida IN, Illinois OUT.

I tweaked today's bracket with USF and I also moved Ohio State up to a 2 and Kansas State down to a 3.

One Stop is current and I'll fill in all the remaining tourney brackets today.

Racers, Eagles, and Bucs (Oh, my!)

2010-03-07T06:16:00.005-06:00

Three more bids: Murray State (OVC), Winthrop (Big South), East Tennessee State (A-Sun). Congrats to all!

New bracket is up. I cannot remember putting a more flawed team in than Illinois. At the bottom, I think we are back up to eight slots up for grabs (see updated Lockbox). I took Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, Rhode Island, Georgia Tech, San Diego State, Mississippi, and Illinois over a set of teams that included Dayton, Memphis, Charlotte, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, South Florida, Washington, Arizona State, and Wichita State. I know that "full body of work" is the mantra, but I feel that monster finishes could push a number of these into the bracket over the dregs at the bottom.

The One Stop is also up-to-date. The Valley crowns a champ today and Bubble Nation will be flying UNI's flag. Wichita State is a worthy opponent. Should be a good one.

Illinois has a huge game at home vs Wisconsin today as well.

Lockbox has been updated, too.

Big Red Bid

2010-03-06T10:28:00.004-06:00

UPDATE: 3:30 CT. Louisville moves off the Bubble to projected IN. It would take a weird set of circumstances to keep them out. I'll likely upgrade them further after the full bracket update.

Lockbox has been updated.
-----------
Cornell is IN. They clinched the Ivy last night. The One Stop shows this and is up to date.

Mercer and East Tennessee State will tangle for the honor to be the unexpected A-Sun representative in the bracket. Murray State and Morehead State will engage in what should be an epic battle for the OVC bid. I follow the OVC pretty closely, and this should be a great game. Winthrop and Coastal Carolina fight for the Big South's Golden Ticket.

I'll update the Lockbox at day's end to reflect auto qualifiers and any At-Large adjustments that need to be made.

Gaining Steam

2010-03-05T14:19:00.004-06:00

Lockbox is updated. UAB in, Dayton out. The Bubble is still at 8, I think.

One Stop is updated through last night. Action is picking up with games in the A-Sun, Colonial, Horizon, MAAC, Valley, OVC, SoCon and WCC today and tonight.

To save a monumental weekend forecast, I'll update daily this weekend as tourney results flow in.

New full bracket will be up later (probably much later) tonight.

One Stop Action, Lockbox

2010-03-04T14:08:00.003-06:00

Sorry for the sparseness this week, but life happens.

One Stop is starting to fill up...and that is like hearing the the ice cream truck in your neighborhood. Something fun and sweet is just around the bend. In fact, some kids already have started eating their ice cream (I like OVC Crunch, personally).

Lockbox is updated. Hello, SD State! Bubble is down to 8 slots by my estimation. People will quibble with Rhode Island as "projected in," but a win at UMass and a first-round A-10 win will make it tough to leave them out. That qualifies as "win games they should." Now, a loss at UMass or in their first round games changes things, but as of now, it's TCB, and URI is likely IN.

Lockbox/One Stop Updates

2010-03-03T14:09:00.001-06:00

Lockbox is updated. Bottom 4 or 5 are very dicey. Day-to-day, really.

One Stop is updated with active conference tourney games.

Bracket Delay

2010-03-01T09:44:00.000-06:00

I'm snowed under today. Bracket will have to come tomorrow or Wed.

Lockbox Update 2/24

2010-02-24T09:05:00.003-06:00

The Lockbox has been updated. Since Monday, the only big change was UConn IN, San Diego State OUT. A few other teams upgraded their status.

Remember, while bracket projections do not attempt to predict future results, the Lockbox does take future schedule into account. For example, Xavier is a virtual lock. Even if they lose to St. Louis and Richmond, they close with Fordham and UMass. So, unless a total meltodown occurs, they are going to get IN. Contrast that with Louisville, who lost last night and closes with a murderous stretch (starting with a home to loss to Georgetown last night). They stay on the Bubble right now.

There are a number of teams one win away from upgrading their status (looking at you, Villanova, West Virginia, Kansas State, Oklahoma State).

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That is also a static number.
--6 teams are LOCKS. There is no way they miss at this point.
--23 teams listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point.
--I have 5 other teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Of these 34 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10. That's down one from last week and by Selection Sunday, it usually no more than four or five. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Last Night's GOI
--at Florida 75, Tennessee 62. Convincing win for the Gators moves them off the Bubble. They could slide back onto it, but one more win plus one SEC Tourney win probably does the trick.
--Georgetown 70, at Louisville 60. Cards find themselves in a tough spot now. They close with roadies at UConn and Marquette (both desperate) and host a Syracuse team that will be highly motivated by Big East title/1-seed hopes and payback. Cards could easily close with four losses. They will need to win at least one and possibly two more games.
--Illinois 51, at Michigan 44. Illini get a roadie they had to have.

Tonight's GOI
--Texas A&M at Baylor. Both scratching for "protected seeds" in the NCAA Tourney.
--Virginia Tech at Boston College. Hokies can't afford a loss like this.
--San Diego State at BYU. Aztecs seem to live on the Bubble year to year. This would help loads.
--Saint Joseph's at Charlotte. Niners need this one badly. They close with two roadies and host Richmond and have already lost three straight.
--Clemson at Maryland. Tigers close with 3/4 on the road and this is the first.
--Purdue at Minnesota. DANGEROUS game for the Boilers. Gophers can get right in the mix with a win.
--Pitt at Notre Dame. Irish need a big, big finish.
--Xavier at St. Louis. Billikens have won 6 straight including three roadies and home wins over Dayton and Rhode Island.
--Marquette at St. John's. Eagles need to win a couple more, and a win here insures a .500 Big East record.
--Dayton at Temple. Flyers could do themselves a lot of good here with a big home win.
--Oklahoma State at Texas. Cowboys probably move off the Bubble with a win.
--South Florida at Villanova. Long shot, but the Bulls need a monster finish.

Project Mockingbird: Nesting Stage

2010-02-23T15:01:00.002-06:00

Project Mockingbird aims to get more mock committees involved in creating a 65-team bracket by replicating the actual selection process. I have been leading a mock committee for many years running. This year is our 5^th installment of the South Central Kentucky Selection Simulation Project (SCKySSiP, ridiculously long name used for effect). We have one sister committee in the works that originates from Omaha, NB. I would love to have more if you can wrangle up enough folks to make a committee. I have been on committees with as many as 10 (CollegeRPI.com in 2002) and as small as six, but the important thing is that your group does not get caught up in "guessing the bracket" and focuses on DOING the process. If you are game, here is what you need to do.

Get X# of people to commit to many email votes and physical or virtual meetings/talks during the week of March 8-14 and especially on March 13/14.
Assign members a conference or two to "represent." IE, they need to know which teams had major injuries that might have impacted W/L's and how that might bear on their resume.
Read the Selection Criteria. And, if you are the chair, you need to be able to facilitate smooth List X (nomination) votes and cross-country (ranking) votes.
Here is a link to some docs I use in for SCKySSiP: Ballots/S-Curve. Every member needs an S-Curve when the time for voting comes.
Email me with specific questions about how to make this work. Our process is not perfect, but it works well for us. That said, what I'm most excited about is seeing how others adapt and give me fresh ideas on how to streamline the process and make it more efficient.

So, Mockingbirds, it's time to build the nest.

Last Night's GOI
-- at UConn 73, West Virginia 62. Huskies surge toward the good side of the Bubble.

--Morgan State 65, at UM-Eastern Shore 61. The Bears are your MEAC tourney 1-seed.

Tonight's GOI

--Tennessee at Florida. Gators can breathe a bit easier with a win here.

--Georgetown at Louisville. A Cards' win shifts their thinking from getting IN to seeding.

--Illinois at Michigan. Illini need to take care of roadies like this one.

Bracket/Lockbox Updates (2/22)

2010-02-22T10:50:00.003-06:00

First, we have our first LOCKS of the season in the Lockbox. They are:

Kansas, Syracuse, Purdue, Kentucky, Duke, Butler

True, one of these things is not like the others, but Butler has just one regular season game left. Even a loss there and a loss in their tourney is not going to boot them at this point. It's a matter of seeding now. Several other teams are primed for LOCK status. More on this on Wednesday.

Secondly, today's bracket is up and the bottom is not pretty. I don't know if teams like St. Mary's or San Diego State have the juice to stay in. That said, the Aztecs' bid may right on their game at BYU on Wednesday. Win there and finish well and they will stay right in the mix for a fourth MtWest bid. They took UAB's slot, who is likely going to need to take care of Memphis and UTEP to have a legit shot at an AL.

Marquette, Charlotte, and Illinois also got IN, while UAB, Mississippi, UConn and Seton Hall just missed among a few others.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (7): Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette
Big 12 (7): Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State
ACC (7): Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Atlantic 10 (6): Temple, Richmond, Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton, Charlotte
Big Ten (5): Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois
SEC (4): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida
Mountain West (4): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Tonight's GOI
--West Virginia at UConn. Massive game for the Huskies. A loss here would force them to sweep games vs Louisville and roadies at Notre Dame and South Florida to get to .500 in league. Win, then get 2/3 to close and they would have to feel decent about their AL chances.
--Morgan State at UM-Eastern Shore. A Bears win seals the MEAC 1-seed.

Weekend Forecast

2010-02-19T13:48:00.002-06:00

Mockingbird update will have to wait until next Tuesday.

Last Night's GOI
--Syracuse 75, at Georgetown 71. Cuse strengthens their 1-seed grip with a tasty road win.
--Pitt 58, Marquette 51. Oh, Eagles, thou art destined to perch thy talons on Bubble fair,
--at Minnesota 68, Wisconsin 52. Your "HELLO!" result of the evening.
--Vanderbilt 82, at Mississippi 78. Not shocked. Rebels are going to sweat without a big finish.
--at Troy 66, Middle Tennessee 62. Helped created a FIVE WAY tie for first with two other teams one back.

WEEKEND FORECAST
Friday
--Cornell at Harvard. For all of the attention the Big Red have had, a loss here likely drops them out of first.
--William & Mary at Iona. A win won't help the Tribe that much.
--Old Dominion at Northern Iowa. Both are very much in the hunt for an AL...and both are playing well.
Saturday
--Xavier at Charlotte. Niners need to hold serve or else they will have dropped 3 straight.
--Virginia at Clemson. Tigers gotta have this one at home.
--Louisville at DePaul. Cards barely survived ND at home last time out. Definitely need to take care of this roadie.
--Georgia Tech at Maryland. Both in pretty good shape, but has ACC impact.
--Florida at Mississippi. Neither has a lot of margin for error, but Rebs need it more.
--Baylor at Oklahoma State. Cowboys could use a big win or two to seal the deal.
--Illinois at Purdue. Illini upset would draw them into a tie with Boilers.
--UConn at Rutgers. Huskies badly need this one.
--Tennessee at South Carolina. Cocks will need a monstrous finish.
--St. John's at South Florida. Bulls are right on the fence.
--Texas at Texas Tech. Both badly need it for different reasons.
--Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Cats best chance to lose another SEC game.
--Seton Hall at West Virginia. Pirates aren't dead yet and this would help loads.
--Siena at Butler. HUGE game for Siena. HUGE.
--Wichita State at Utah State. Fringe Bubblers, one of which will gain a bit here.
Sunday
--Arizona State at Arizona. Devils are fringe and need a big finish.
--Marquette at Cincinnati. One of these two will feel it slipping away after this one.
--Ohio State at Michigan State. Your Sunday Clash of the Titans match up.
--Villanova at Pittsburgh. Nova tries to protect it's 1-seed status in a big road test.

One Stop and A10 Attrition

2010-02-18T08:16:00.003-06:00

One Stop Shop
It's a big day here at TBB. I have said many times that the best of the NCAA basketball experience comes during the week before games start in November (everyone is undefeated and full of hope) and then during conference tourneys through the first weekend of the NCAA tourney.

Thus, I give you the 2010 One Stop Shop. All 30 conference tourney brackets in one place that will be updated multiple times every day throughout the conference tourney season. Some teams have already secured 1-seeds in their tourneys (Siena, Butler, Murray State, UNI) and I have filled them into those slots. Teams will fall into seed lines in a trickle over the next week and then start to sort out quickly as February comes to a close. Exciting stuff!

A-10 Attrition
It had to happen at some point. Some of the super six in the A-10 eventually had to blink, and it happened to two teams last night. Charlotte dropped a home contest to Duquesne. That is not a resume-killer, but it certainly does not help especially coming off a complete pasting at the hands of Dayton. Also, Rhode Island did itself no favors by losing at St. Louis. Again, not a killer, but it moves both of those teams from "maintain and you are IN" to "Bubble." The Rams are still on the good side, but it reduces their margin for error. URI ends with four very winnable games (Fordham, @St. Bonnie, Charlotte, @UMass) while Charlotte has a tough row to hoe (Xavier, St. Joe's, @GW, @URI, Richmond). Also, St. Louis looks like a dangerous team now having won 5 straight including wins over Dayton and URI and they lead both clubs in the A10 standings.

Tomorrow, some information and updates on Project Mockingbird.

Last Night's GOI
--at Arkansas 82, South Carolina 79. Cocks are out of the Lockbox until further notice.
--Wofford 73, at Davidson 51. Fear the Terriers! 16-2 in their last 18 and the two losses were close ones vs Kent State and at Charleston.
--at Missouri 82, Texas 77. Tigers move closer to lock status.
--at Louisville 91, Notre Dame 89 (2OT). Irish nearly stole one without Harangody...and absolutely NO ANSWER for Samardo Samuels.
--Duke 81,at Miami-FL 74. Devils stay on the fringe of the 1-seed debate in case some powerhouse falters down the stretch.
--Maryland 67, at NC State 58. The kind of roadie that NCAA teams win.
--Purdue 60, at Ohio State 57. I will not be a bit surprised if the Boilers wind up with a 1-seed.
--at Utah State 67, LA Tech 61. USU wins their 11th straight and puts LA Tech two back.
--Florida State 69, at Virgnia 50. Pretty much ends the Cavs meager AL hopes.

Tonight's GOI
--Syracuse at Georgeown. Your Thursday Clash of the Titans match up.
--Pitt at Marquette. Eagles could put themselves in good position with a home win here.
--Wisconsin at Minnesota. Gophers need to start a big run right now.
--Vanderbilt at Mississippi. Rebels will need a strong finish.
--Middle Tennessee at Troy. Wrestling for the Sun Belt East division title, the 1-seed, and a bye.

Lockbox 2/17

2010-02-17T10:35:00.002-06:00

Let's merge yesterday's bracket and today's Lockbox into a sort of "State of the Bracket" post. First, after last night's results, I replaced Cincinnati with South Florida, and it's not just because USF topped Cincy. USF was close anyway and got a win over a fellow Bubbler. A few notes:

1. 1-seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Villanova. Cuse has a slight edge over Nova because using the RPI as a tie-breaker, they are the "Big East Champ."
2. Mississippi. Pretty much all other bracketologists have them IN and even at 10-seed range. I don't get it. They have one Top 50 win (granted, a good one vs Kansas State). They trail Mississippi State and ARKANSAS (!) in the SEC West where they are .500 in league. They are #51 in the RPI. They have lost 3/4 including at home to the Hogs. I have not been sold on the Rebels at any point. Maybe I just see too much of them in SEC country.
3. That said, there are plenty of flawed teams IN that Ole Miss could make a case against. South Florida, UAB, Louisville, Marquette, Clemson, Virgnia Tech...there is some sorting to do down the stretch.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That is also a static number.
--26 teams listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point.
--I have 7 other teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do (see a gaggle of A-10 teams!). Of these 33 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 23 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 11. That's up one from last week and by Selection Sunday, it usually no more than four or five. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Tonight's GOI
--South Carolina at Arkansas. USC East is a long shot, but can help themselves...and Mississippi and Mississippi State.
--Wofford at Davidson. Big SoCon tilt.
--Texas at Missouri. Big 12 and NCAA seeding ramifications.
--Notre Dame at Louisville. Couple of Big East Bubblers and ND needs it much more.
--Duke at Miami-FL. Devils need to collect some roadies to secure a 2-seed or argue for a 1-seed.
--Maryland at NC State. Terps are in good shape, but need to take care of these types of roadies.
--Purdue at Ohio State. Your Wednesday Clash of the Titans special.
--LA Tech at Utah State. USU can put the Dogs two back with a win.
--Florida State at Virgnia. 'Noles try to stay above .500 in the ACC.

Bracket Update 2/16

2010-02-16T15:15:00.000-06:00

Bracket is up. Time crunch, so more later if time allows.

Weekend Forecast 2/12-14

2010-02-12T10:58:00.002-06:00

BIG, BIG Weekend.

Friday
--West Virginia at Pitt. Backyard Brawl is always fun.
Saturday
--Alabama at Arkansas. Hogs have won 5 straight since being obliterated at Kentucky. I'm not sure The Ark can run all the way into the AL convo, but if they win the West, they could significantly hurt the chances of Ole Miss and Miss State.
--Missouri at Baylor. Both of these teams are in pretty good shape, but are working to close the deal.
--Miami-FL at Clemson. Tigers have to hold serve in their home games.
--Cincinnati at UConn. Calhoun returns...will UConn's AL hopes?
--Maryland at Duke. This would push Maryland into near lock status.
--Xavier at Florida. An OOC special with high stakes right in the heat of the conference slog.
--South Carolina at Georgia. Road wins do wonders for Bubble teams.
--Tennessee at Kentucky. Good rivalry, and a good test for both.
--South Florida at Marquette. Doesn't get more BEAST Bubbly than this.
--Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. Sooners are trying to climb into the convo, OK State tracking toward "in" but needs their home games for sure.
--St. Mary's at Portland. Gaels can't afford any "non-Gonzaga" losses.
--Cornell at Princeton. Ivy undefeateds. If the Big Red is going to lose in league, this is the one of most likely games along with the game @Harvard next weekend.
--Coastal Carolina at Radford. Highlanders can pull into a tie for first with a win.
--UNLV at San Deigo State. Aztecs are looking to be a fourth team from the MtWest, and they probably need this one if they are going to pull it off.
--Rhode Island at Temple. Titanic A10 tilt.
--Texas A&M at Texas Tech. Raiders need it a lot more.
--Memphis at Tulsa. Nice CUSA match up of Fringe Bubblers.
--Georgia Tech at Wake. For ACC and NCAA seeding.
--Northeastern at William & Mary. Huskies try to hold on to #1 CAA position.
Sunday
--Ohio State at Illinois. Illini look to firm up their ground a bit.
--Minnesota at Northwestern. Fringe Big 10-11-12-13-14 Bubblers.
--St. John's at Notre Dame. Johnnies are pretty far away, and ND has to win their home games at least.
--

Lockbox Update 2/11

2010-02-12T00:23:00.003-06:00

Lockbox has been updated. The change from Monday as far as IN/OUT is Illinois IN, Mississippi OUT. I could have just as easily booted South Florida, St. Mary's, Old Dominion, UAB or VA Tech, but I've seen Ole Miss a few times and they just don't pass the smell test given their shaky profile. Plus, third place in the raggedy SEC West does not win any bonus points.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That is also a static number.
--24 teams listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would take a meltdown at this point.
--I have 10 other teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do (see FOUR A-10 teams!). Of these 34 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 10. That's down a whopping three from last week and by Selection Sunday, it usually no more than four or five. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

First Clinches

2010-02-09T10:47:00.003-06:00

Siena and Butler clinched shares of their league titles with wins last night. Siena has also locked up the #1 seed in the MAAC Tourney. That means that the One Stop Shop is not far away. It is about one-half ready and I hope to get up all 30 conference tourney brackets sometime next week.

Last Night's GOI
-- at New Mexico State 70, LA Tech 68. Aggies hold serve and are tied with only Utah State atop the WAC.
--Kansas 80, at Texas 68. 'Horns have lost 5/7. #1 in the Popularity Flavor of the Week Contest seems like a LONG time ago.
--Villanova 82, at West Virginia 75. This is what 1-seeds do. Beat excellent teams on their home courts.

Tonight's GOI
--VCU at George Mason. Rams are one back of GMU, but both need it to keep CAA title hopes alive.
--Purdue at Michigan State. Boilers have won 5 straight and Sparty is wounded.
--Texas Tech at Oklahoma. Raiders are near the fence while the Sooners are trying to play their way onto the Bubble.
--Georgetown at Providence. Hoyas look to consolidate that big win over Nova.
--Tennessee at Vanderbilt. In-state rivalry alert! Big SEC implications, too.
--Illinois at Wisconsin. Illini could do themselves a ton of good with this one, unlikely as it is.

Bracket Update 2/8

2010-02-08T11:02:00.002-06:00

Today's bracket is up. It is less than 5 weeks until Selection Sunday.

At the bottom, it felt like there were six debatable slots and I opted for Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, Old Dominion, UAB, Marquette and South Florida over a group that included Louisville, Clemson, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and Wichita State among others.

It's jarring to think that UConn, North Carolina and Memphis are all clearly out at this point. Those three have routinely competed for 1-2 seeds over the last several seasons.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (7): Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia, Pitt, Marquette, South Florida
Big 12 (7): Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State
ACC (6): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Atlantic 10 (6): Temple, Rhode Island, Charlotte, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton
SEC (5): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Mississippi
Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Colonial (2): Northeastern, Old Dominion
Mountain West (3): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
CUSA (2): UTEP, UAB

Tonight's GOI
--LA Tech at New Mexico State. 2/3 of the teams tied in the loss column atop the WAC.
--Kansas at Texas. 'Horns have lost 4/6 and are falling out of "protected seed" range.
--Villanova at West Virginia. Massive implications on BEAST and NCAA seeding. Simply a monster regular season game.
--

Weekend Forecast (2/5-2/7)

2010-02-05T13:55:00.002-06:00

Last Night's GOI
--Florida 66, at Alabama 65. Gators narrowly avoid a setback.
--at Duke 86, Georgia Tech 67. Revenge: exacted.
--Maryland 71, at Florida State 67. Terps claim a big, furry road pelt.
--Purdue 78, at Indiana 75. In-state rivalry road test was passed by the Boilers.
--Troy 70, at Middle Tennessee 67. Trojans' big road win coupled with an FAU loss creates a three-way logjam in the Sun Belt East.
--at Notre Dame 83, Cincinnati 65. Bearcats look like a classic Bubble boy.
--at Virginia Tech 74, North Carolina 70. Heels fall to 2-5 and are in big trouble. Hokies are movin' on up.
--at Washington 81, Arizona 75. Huskies trending in the right direction (5-2 in last 7).

WEEKEND FORECAST
Tonight
--Iona at Siena. Sweet MAAC showdown. If the Saints win, you can pretty much ink them as regular season champs. They will be +4 with 5 to play with a win.
Saturday
--Wright State at Butler. If BU is going to stumble in conference, this is one of the better chances.
--Kent State at Central Michigan. Clash of MAC divisional leaders.
--Missouri at Colorado. Buffs have been pretty good at home, so keep an eye on this one.
--Xavier at Dayton. Any games among the top six in the A-10 are vital.
--Mississippi State at Florida. Both are quite Bubbly, though Dawgs need it more.
--Villanova at Georgetown. Hoyas look to atone for their South Florida home loss sins.
--Michigan State at Illinois. Illini need to cash in on their big win opportunities to have an AL shot.
--Gonzaga at Memphis. Tigers can get into the convo with a win after taking out UAB earlier in the week.
--San Diego State at New Mexico. Aztecs need some big wins to fill out their Bubbly resume.
--Seton Hall at Pitt. Panthers have wobbled a bit lately. SHU is trying to salvage one in a tough 3-game road swing.
--Marquette at Providence. Hard luck Eagles could help themselves with a road win.
--Temple at Richmond. That whole A-10 thing again.
--West Virginia at St. John's. Johnnies are going to have to finish big.
--Baylor at Texas A&M. Both have to feel pretty good at this stage.
--BYU at UNLV. Robust MtWest tilt.
--Nevada at Utah State. Two of four within a game at the top of the WAC.
--Tulsa at UTEP. Two fringe CUSA Bubble Boys.
--Old Dominion at VCU. ODU is very much in the AL hunt, VCU can fan their spark with a win.
--Wake at Virginia. Cavs need some juice on their resume to be a real factor.
--Clemson at Virginia Tech. Clemson is trying to stay off the Bubble, VT is trying to get on the good side.
--Arizona State at Washington. Pac-10 and Bubble implications.
--Arizona at Washington State. Cats need a strong finish.
Sunday
--Syracuse at Cincinnati. Bearcats need to cash in at home.
--North Carolina at Maryland. Heels have to start piling up some wins.
--South Florida at Notre Dame. Bulls look to consolidate that big Hoya takedown.

Watch List 2

2010-02-04T10:43:00.003-06:00

This is not comprehensive, and some of these teams have no chance at an AL bid, but they are making noise and heading in the right direction as the season's leaves begin to change.

South Florida (15-7, 5-5, 46 RPI). Bulls have won 5/6 in the Big East including two roadies which includes that whopper over G'town last night.

Northeastern (15-8, 10-2, 56 RPI). The Huskies are 13-1 in their last 14 including a win over ODU and at VCU.

UTEP (16-5, 7-1, 68 RPI). Miners are 12-3 in their last 15 including road wins at UAB and Memphis.

Morehead State (13-7, 9-2). Most feel Murray State is far ahead of the pack in the OVC (and they are), but Morehead had rattled off 11 straight before a slip at Austin Peay.

Wofford (15-8, 8-3). The Terriers are 12-2 in their last 14 and those losses were vs Kent State on a neutral court and at College of Charleston. They have won five true roadies in that stretch. WCU and Charleston are getting most of the SoCon love, but Wofford demands attention.

Florida Atlantic (10-10, 8-3). A perennial Sun Belt doormat, Mike Jarvis has the Owls 7-1 in their last 8, including a win at Middle Tennessee, and tied for first in the Belt East.

New Mexico State (12-8, 6-2). The Aggies are 10-2 in their last 12 including the road pelts of Utah State and LA Tech.

Portland (13-7, 5-2). Remember the Pilots from November? Well, those wins over Minnesota and UCLA turned out to be a bit of fools gold and they suffered a December lull, but they are 6-2 in their last 8 and the losses were close ones to Gonzaga and at St. Mary's.

Last Night's GOI
--South Florida 72, at Georgetown 64. Hoyas get the horns, and USF gets into the AL picture in a big way.
--at Memphis 85, UAB 75. Tigers AL hopes are very remote, but this did not hurt.
--Texas A&M 77, at Missouri 74. Aggies get a gem of a roadie.
--at Northern Iowa 59, Wichita State 56. Start the parade. UNI is +3 games with 6 to play.
--at Old Dominion 61, William & Mary 42. ODU is looking more and more like an AL team.
--at Tulsa 73, Marshall 69. Herd's hopes are pretty much gone. Golden 'Canes are slim, but not dead.
--at Vanderbilt 75, Mississippi State 72. 'Dores hold serve at home in a big SEC game.
--at West Virginia 70, Pitt 51. Panthers have dropped 4/5, but have 3 home games coming up.

Tonight's GOI
--Florida at Alabama. Gators need these kind of road games.
--Georgia Tech at Duke. Devils looking for payback.
--Maryland at Florida State. Terps need it much more.
--Purdue at Indiana. In-state rivalry alert!
--Troy at Middle Tennessee. Trojans could pull into a tie with MT.
--Cincinnati at Notre Dame. Bearcats=Good Bubble. ND=Bad Bubble.
--North Carolina at Virginia Tech. Heels desperately need a win.
--Arizona at Washington. Most likely teams to be #2 in the Pac-10 behind Cal.
--

Lockbox 2/3

2010-02-03T09:28:00.002-06:00

The Lockbox has been updated.

Tomorrow, we will build a new Watch List. There are lots of under-the-radar teams that are putting it together of late.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--23 teams are listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would be extremely surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss.
--I have 8 other teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but still have a work to do. Of these 31 black and blue teams, 10 are conference leaders. That means 21 at-large slots appear to be taken at this stage (it's still early).
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 13 slots right now. That up one from last week, but on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT are in red.

Last Night's GOI
--at Kentucky 85, Mississippi 75. Rebels are now two back of Miss St in the SEC West.
--at Northwestern 67, Michigan 52. Cats get one they had to have.
--at Villanova 81, Seton Hall 71. 3-6 is not a good conference record when you are Bubbly.
--at Wisconsin 67, Michigan State 49. Badgers send a crystal-clear message about the Big 10-11-12-13-14 title race: "it ain't over 'til it's over."

Tonight's GOI
--South Florida at Georgetown. A chance for USF to stamp themselves as a legit AL candidate.
--UAB at Memphis. Tigers may not be AL quality this year, but they can certainly damage UAB's hopes and knock from league leader status.
--Texas A&M at Missouri. Aggies need it more.
--Wichita State at Northern Iowa. A Panther win means, I'll say it, the Valley race is over. A win by the Shockers fans the embers of their AL hopes and pulls them within a game of UNI.
--William & Mary at Old Dominion. Big CAA tilt with repercussions on many levels.
--Marshall at Tulsa. Two of the better CUSA teams on the far fringe of AL Land.
--Mississippi State at Vanderbilt. Bulldogs are right on the fence, so this would help in a big way. Memorial Gym is a tough venue, though.
--Pitt at West Virginia. Your Wednesday "Clash of the Titans" game.

BracketBusters 3

2010-02-02T10:50:00.003-06:00

The pairings are out, and they were mostly according to expectations. ESPN opted for Morgan State over Buffalo, but otherwise it's the same teams I posted last Thursday with the match ups juggled a bit here or there.

Last Night's GOI
--Lipscomb 60, at Campbell 59. This one did not disappoint as the Bisons clawed out a huge road win and stay one game back of ASUN-leading Jacksonville.
--at Louisville 82, UConn 69. Huskies still 0-for-the-season in true roadies while the Cards get a much-needed win.
--Texas 72, at Oklahoma State 60. 'Horns could not stop James Anderson early, but blasted the Cowboys over the last 35 mins or so.

Tonight's GOI
--Mississippi at Kentucky. Rebels are coming off a miserable home loss to Arkansas or else this would have been a match up of SEC division leaders. Rebs look like a Bubble boy to me.
--Michigan at Northwestern. The next five games will tell us if the Cats are an At-Large contender or not. They have 4/5 at home and the road game is at Iowa. They need to stack up some wins in this stretch.
--Seton Hall at Villanova. SHU is playing to stay on the good side of the Bubble while Nova is vying for a 1-seed.
--Michigan State at Wisconsin. Titanic Big 10-11-12-13-14 tilt.

Bracket Update 2/1

2010-02-01T14:16:00.002-06:00

Bracket is up.

At the bottom, there were about six slots truly up for grabs and I took Old Dominion, Seton Hall, Richmond, St. Mary's, Maryland, and Mississippi State over a group that included Marquette, UConn, North Carolina, Wichita State, William & Mary, Northeastern, Louisville, Minnesota, South Carolina, VCU, and Arizona.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown
Big East (7): Villanova, Syracuse, Georgetown, West Virginia, Pitt, Cincinnati, Seton Hall
Big 12 (7): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
ACC (6): Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Maryland
SEC (6): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Florida, Mississippi State
Atlantic 10 (6): Temple, Rhode Island, Xavier, Charlotte, Dayton, Richmond
Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion
Mountain West (3): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Tonight's GOI
--Lipscomb at Campbell. One of these two will fall two behind Jacksonville with a loss.
--UConn at Louisville. Huskies still 0-for-the-season in true roadies. Both of these teams just missed the bracket today.
--Texas at Oklahoma State. 'Horns need to stabilize themselves if they want to stay in the Big 12 title race and the 1/2 seed hunt.

BracketsBusters Standings 2

2010-01-28T14:16:00.005-06:00

Buster standings have been udpated through last night's games. I may do one more update before Sunday since it looks like Kentucky is going to get hit with a once-every-few-decades kind of winter storm this weekend (that is, I may be homebound), but my guess is that the ESPN BracketBusters pairings will look something like this on Sunday.

Old Dominion at Northern Iowa
Siena at Butler
Wichita State at Utah State
LA Tech at VCU
William & Mary at Kent State
Western Carolina at Northeastern
College of Charleston at George Mason
Nevada at Murray State
Akron at George Mason
Buffalo at Iona
New Mexico State at Pacific

I would not be surprised to see Green Bay, Creighton, or Illinois State in the mix.

The field will be announced on Sunday, February 1, and games will be played on Feb 19-20.

Tonight's GOI
--California at Arizona State. A couple of Pac-10 teams will win enough games to garner an At-Large. These are two of the better candidates.
--Wake at Georgia Tech. Every game seems terribly meaningful in the ACC right now.
--Oakland at IUPUI. HUGE Summit tilt. Grizz can get two clear or IUPUI will tie and split the home/home with Oakland. HUGE.
--St. John's at Pittsburgh. Johnnies cannot affort to slide to 2-6 in league.
--Wisconsin at Purdue. Badgers trail Sparty by 2, the Boilers trail by three. Purdue can forget about catching MSU if they lose here.
--Seton Hall at South Florida. SHU must find a way to win this kind of roadie.
--Siena at St. Peter's. Peacocks are winners of five straight. Saints are +3 in the MAAC, but has a bunch of road games left.
--Virginia Tech at Virginia. In-state rivalry alert!

Lockbox 1/27

2010-01-27T14:11:00.002-06:00

Lockbox has been updated.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--22 teams are listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would be extremely surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss.
--I have 9 other teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but still have a work to do. Of these 31 black and blue teams, 9 are conference leaders. That means 22 at-large slots appear to be taken at this stage (it's still early).
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 12 slots right now. That is two less than last week, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five.

Bracket Update 1/26

2010-01-26T15:07:00.003-06:00

First full bracket is up.

At the bottom, I took Florida, North Carolina, Seton Hall, Louisville, St. Mary's, and Richmond over teams like Cincinnati, St. John's, San Diego State, Mississippi State, VCU, Notre Dame, and several others.

Lockbox update coming tomorrow and new BracketBuster standings on Thursday.

Tonight's GOI
--Kansas State at Baylor. Major implications on many levels.
--Rhode Island at Dayton. Both looking to solidify At-Large status.
--Michigan State at Michigan. In-state rivalry alert!
--Northwestern at Minnesota. Both probably feel like they have to have it.
--North Carolina at NC State. Tar Heels are flirting with the Bubble.
--Tulsa at UAB. CUSA showdown!

Lockbox Update

2010-01-21T10:24:00.005-06:00

Via a borrowed computer, here is the first real Lockbox. It is still early, so some major sifting obviously will occur over the next several weeks. To refresh readers and inform the unitiated:

BLACK: LOCK, cannot miss (there are none of those yet)

black: Teams who are well on their way. It would be a surprise if they somehow miss.

blue: OK, but need to win games they "should" (define that how you will).

green: Bubble IN

red: Bubble OUT

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season.
--34 At-Large Bids. That also is a static number.
--21 teams are listed in black. The black teams could miss, but it would be extremely surprising if they did. It would take a real meltdown to miss.
--I have 7 other teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but still have a work to do. Of these 28 black and blue teams, 8 are conference leaders. There are also Bubble-IN leaders in the ACC (Virginia) and Pac-10 (Cal). That means 20 at-large slots appear to be taken at this stage (again, it's early).
--Hence, the Bubble stands at 14 slots right now. This will shrink over the coming weeks, and on Selection Sunday it is usually no more than four or five.

Tonight's GOI
--Florida at Arkansas. If the Gators cannot win this kind of roadie, they drop off the Lockbox entirely.
--Pepperdine at Gonzaga. It's not St. Mary's who is currently tied for first in the WCC, it's the Waves.